I haven't done the hard and fast analysis on this yet (it's the offseason you know
, but off the top of my head here are a few guys i could see enjoying their first 1,000 yard receiving seasons:
1)
Dennis Northcutt/Andre Davis -- With Quincy Morgan regressing, and a new offensive coordinator running the show, I could see either Northcutt or Davis emerging this year. Which one? Tought to say. Recall that Northcutt also thought he would be a UFA and didn't file his paperwork in time, so will there be lingering hostility?
2)
Andre Johnson -- Dre only missed the 1,000 yard mark by 24 yards, and had an impressive 14.8 YPC in his rookie season. When you consider that Carr was out for a time, and Tony Banks was slinging the ball around, I think that mere natural progression pushes Dre into the 1000-1100 yard+ camp.
3)
Reggie Wayne -- I don't think Wayne will surprise us with a top 10 fantasy season as long as Mo is healthy, but one of these years Mo isn't going to catch 90-100 balls and Wayne has shown the ability to pick up some of that slack. 68 catches for 838 yards and 7 TDs was nice growth (albeit a lower YPC) and he could be on the cusp.
4)
Deion Branch -- We fantasy owners would be greatly served if Troy Brown was sent packing. That would open the door for Branch/Bethel Johnson and David Givens to get more looks. That said, Branch acquitted himself well last year, and has the talent to be a 1,000 yard receiver in this system. Unfortunately, you shouldn't overpay for him on draft day because NE has the most balanced passing game in the land, and absent someone of Moss/Ward/Harrison caliber, it's going to be tough for any WR to have a monster year.
5)
Jerry Porter -- Last year I warned against counting on Porter to break out, but even I didn't expect his season to amount to a whopping 361 yards. He's got the talent, but is his health and work ethic enough to put him over the top? Obviously much of this comes down to the QB situation, the type of offense Turner institutes and, as importantly, whether Oakland looks at Fitzgerald or Mike Williams with the 2nd pick. If Oakland brings aboard one of those two, all bets could be off.
6)
Charlie Rogers -- Rogers didn't have the impact as a rookie that most expected, as he was sidelined by a broken collarbone. We just don't know how talented Joey Harrington really is, but this is the year Mooch is expecting Harrington to sink or swim, and Tai Streets will keep opposing defenses honest in 2004. Rogers could well fly past 1000 yards and be a solid fantasy contributor if Detroit puts together a reasonably accountable supporting staff.
7)
Javon Walker -- Brett Favre is going to get his numbers, if there is one truth in football, it may be that he finds a way to make use of his receivers. There's no reason the GB passing game shouldn't have at least one 1,000 yard receiver and of the two youngsters (Ferguson and Bryant), Bryant had the better year and shows better underlying growth metrics (17.5 YPC, 9 TDs), so let's pencil him in for continued growth in 2004.
8)
Brandon Lloyd -- Clearly a pick that could end up being huge for you in the later rounds of the draft. Sometimes production is more about opportunity than anything else, and Lloyd's opportunity is expected to change greatly in 2004. Gone are Tai Streets and Terrell Owens, leaving Lloyd as one of the Niners two starting WRs. Now, if the Niners draft someone like Reggie Williams, Lloyd may settle into the WR2 role, but watch him as he was receiving glowing reports from SF coaches from almost the first day of practice. Remember what Boldin did thanks to opportunity.
eion BranchLamont BrightfulAntonio BryantReche CaldwellKelly CampbellTim CarterAndre' DavisEddie DrummondJabar GaffneyDavid GivensDaryl JonesAshley LelieAaron LockettLee MaysJason McAddleyFreddie MilonsEric ParkerAntwaan Randle ElJosh ReedJake SchifinoDonte StallworthJavon WalkerComments and projections, please!
Put me down for Charles Lee.
