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RB Jerick McKinnon, KC (2 Viewers)
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Appreciate the simple clarity of this post. I agree with points 1 & 2, but see them as basically offsetting for purposes of this discussion. Point 3 is, IMO, mostly irrelevant to this discussion.
On point 4, why do you see Lewis being on a snap count? Why give a guy $11.5M guaranteed to put him on some meaningfully restrictive snap count?
Again, really appreciate your perspective.
Chaka
Footballguy
No worries.
Discounting the offensive line when evaluating skill position players seems very odd to me. Particularly when the difference between the two lines is so vast. Tennessee has a line on par with the best in the league (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas etc). The five starters have played 153 of the past 160 games together (and Brian Schwenke started five of the seven games where one of the starters was out). Over the past two years no team comes close to that kind of consistency. Staley has been all-world during his career but the 49ers have only two starters returning who played together last season. Their five projected starters have played 54 of the last 160 games together. If you include the bench then you get to 78 of 160 games played together. I believe McGlinchey should be an instant boost but that's only hope, we don't know that today. Either way it's worlds apart from a unit like Tennessee where they all pretty much know everything everyone else is going to do before the ball is even snapped.
Most offensive lines are pretty much a push when evaluating skill position players but for the really great lines like Tennessee, and for the really terrible lines (watch out Houston), the quality of the offensive line absolutely colors my evaluation.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not sure what "meaningfully restrictive" means. I certainly don't think they brought Lewis in to give him 300 touches, that's for sure.
It's hard to project what the Titans will do on offense this year. LaFleur worked under both Shanahan and McVay which is as good of a starting point as any. Seems to me that if they run similar systems we can expect both LaFleur and Shanahan to use a heavy rotation at RB. Which leads me back to Henry >>> McKinnon, Lewis >>> Breida and, possibly, Lewis >>> McKinnon...heck it could even be Lewis >>> Henry and still allow for Henry >>> McKinnon.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I'm not discounting the line for production purposes - I'm discounting it for the purpose of your topic, which is "who sees more of a dent in production due to the presence of another RB."
And on that narrow topic, I struggle to see how o-line quality is a key factor. I do think that o-line quality matters (a lot!!!) for overall RB production though.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Makes sense. Except for the part where you are using LaFleur's experience working under Shanahan to justify why LaFleur will be......offensively more productive for RBs than.....Shanahan. It's like saying Daniel LaRusso studied under Miyagi, therefore Miyagi is at a disadvantage in a Karate match against Daniel.
Chaka
Footballguy
Actually the original premise, which you are correct in that we got away from it, was simply that I think Henry>>>McKinnion in all formats this season. That's where I started with the o-line.
Chaka
Footballguy
Not at all. The point was that they both may be running very similar systems which will probably see heavy RB rotations. Production enters the picture only in that I think Tennessee will be more productive than San Francisco as a team. Similar schemes + Better line + better RBs = better production.Makes sense. Except for the part where you are using LaFleur's experience working under Shanahan to justify why LaFleur will be......offensively more productive for RBs than.....Shanahan. It's like saying Daniel LaRusso studied under Miyagi, therefore Miyagi is at a disadvantage in a Karate match against Daniel.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What are your projections for the RBs of the Titans?
Here was my last stab at numbers for the 49ers and McKinnon.
Reading what I wrote it seems more optimistic than what I think will really happen. This does account for Breida/Williams 125 rushing attempts and 30-40 targets as well.
TakiToki
Footballguy
I'm all in with McKinnon. While the 49ers have a one-year out with minimal cap damage, they're taking a $12 million shot with a back-up RB. I can only think that they have amazingly high hopes for him. I believe he will be the centerpiece of the offense, heavily featured in the passing game.
I have as the #4 RB overall after some combination of Bell/Elliott/Gurley. I can perfectly understand those that think I'm taking crazy pills, but that's what I think. I am not a fan of the 49ers, but I don't believe I've been as high on a first-year full-time starter at RB on any team since Kevan Barlow. So, that makes me feel pretty wonderful about things.
I have as the #4 RB overall after some combination of Bell/Elliott/Gurley. I can perfectly understand those that think I'm taking crazy pills, but that's what I think. I am not a fan of the 49ers, but I don't believe I've been as high on a first-year full-time starter at RB on any team since Kevan Barlow. So, that makes me feel pretty wonderful about things.
Keep hearing people say this and I don't see it this way at all. If they cut him after a year they eat $6m in dead money to not pay him $3.7M. That is not happening.
The real way to look at this contract is a 2 year $18m deal with team options for years 3 and 4 for between $6.5-6.9M. But barring a career ending injury or major off the field incident he is seeing two years on this deal.
TakiToki
Footballguy
Yeah, but the theme of my post is pretty much the same either way. I think he's going to be really damn good for a while.
TakiToki
Footballguy
I'm going by spotrac. According to this, 2018 includes $2mm signing bonus $4.2mm base salary and $5.8mm roster/workout bonus. With it being 4 years, that leaves only $1.5mm of unallocated signing bonus that is accelerated in 2019. I think you are looking at the roster bonus counting entirely against 2018 as part of the signing bonus to be prorated over all 4 years. Assuming this link is correct, of course.
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TakiToki
Footballguy
Very interesting. He claims that treating the roster bonus as it typically would violates the CBA.
I couldn't find corroboration of the "50% rule" with quick googling, but sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Thanks for the link!
Chaka
Footballguy
I rarely do straight projections as I consider them a lesson in futility, particularly considering we have to factor in an entirely new coaching staff, but occasionally I take a stab. It is too early in the offseason for me to get too far into the weeds with that kind of number kerjiggering right now, particularly as I am working on a fairly extensive analysis of offensive linemen (I think you are in that thread too). But when I start truly shaping my draft board I will happily revisit this.Biabreakable said:
Chaka
Footballguy
You might want to rethink that. The offense, and the entire organization on the field for that matter, unquestionably runs through Jimmy Garoppolo. They gave up a second round pic and signed him to a 5 year $137 million dollar contract with $74 million guaranteed. This is his team and he is the unquestioned centerpiece of the offense.
McKinnon is barely and afterthought compared to that. He's an expensive, but not cap crushing, blindfolded dart throw. Sure he's is handpicked, and I believe they fully intend to use him as they believe he can be used but I don't see his contract as something that guarantees unfettered trust. I think it is far more likely that he will be in a significant time share with Breida and/or Williams. 50:50 or, IMO, at best 55:45
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The reason that I ask is because you have made statements indicating small margins that could only be made clear through projections.
zoonation
Footballguy
#4? Put the pipe down amigo. If Johnson and McK play the same number of games and McK outperforms him I’ll eat my hat. Ditto for Kamara.
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Interesting post to look back on. Particularly since both have a lot of talent, have got opportunities faster than normal, and just joined new teams. They also have been guys that I kinda expected more of with their chances (I went in on Cowell in all my redraft leagues this year and bombed with it)
It's not really that far fetched. If Shanahan uses him like he did Freeman, then McKinnon has a real shot at being a top 6 RB this season. Hyde had 59 catches in this offense, McKinnon's over/under should be around 70. There was a period last year when Cook went down and Murray wasn't in the rotation that McKinnon was the #2 RB over a 4 week period last year.
It's not that McKinnon is a top 10 talent at RB, it's that he is a versatile RB, hand picked by Shanahan to be featured in one of the best RB systems in the league.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There are too many good RB in the league for me to view McKinnon as top 6 or even top 10.
I do think he can flirt with top 12 if everything goes well and he shows better vision to read the outside zone runs than he has so far in his career. The reason why I and others emphasize his abilities as a receiver and blocker is because he is better at those things than he is at running the ball. He has all the athletic gifts you could ask for in a RB but his mind does not keep up with what his body can do. He should make defenders miss much more often than he has and he can do that, I have seen it at times, but most of the time he doesn't and I think it is because he just isn't processing what he sees quickly enough to do so.
I do think he will get enough opportunity with the 49ers for us to find that out once and for all. Wishing McKinnon the best, I would be happy to be wrong here, but there was a very clear difference to me in what Dalvin Cook can do as a runner and what McKinnon can't.
I do think he can flirt with top 12 if everything goes well and he shows better vision to read the outside zone runs than he has so far in his career. The reason why I and others emphasize his abilities as a receiver and blocker is because he is better at those things than he is at running the ball. He has all the athletic gifts you could ask for in a RB but his mind does not keep up with what his body can do. He should make defenders miss much more often than he has and he can do that, I have seen it at times, but most of the time he doesn't and I think it is because he just isn't processing what he sees quickly enough to do so.
I do think he will get enough opportunity with the 49ers for us to find that out once and for all. Wishing McKinnon the best, I would be happy to be wrong here, but there was a very clear difference to me in what Dalvin Cook can do as a runner and what McKinnon can't.
Chaka
Footballguy
I gave up doing hard core projections for teams/players maybe a decade ago. And I don't put much stock in projections from anyone else. Far too many variables involved and there is simply zero accountability going into next season. Seriously does anyone ever go back and compare projections with reality?
I apologise if I wasn't clear about this point but I am not suggesting the difference between Henry and McKinnon will be +/-20 RBs. I think they should probably be in the same tier but I simply think Henry will do more with his opportunities than McKinnon and I like his ceiling far more.
I also don't put much stock into people who watch film, or tell us how much they watched a specific player for the same reasons I don't abide projections; too many variables and too much subjectivity. Unless you are on the team staff all the film study in the world won't tell you what anyone should be doing on any given play. So take this next with a half-a-molecule of salt (and it's worth less than that) but I owned both last year and, in my highly uninformed and entirely subjective opinion Henry looks like a much better all around RB than McKinnon.
That being said I wouldn't be surprised at all if McKinnon outproduced Henry, I just won't draft them that way.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I can respect your view on that.
When you were saying things like Dion Lewis not affecting Henry's production any more than Breida/Williams will affect McKinnons production, to me this sounds like something you had an idea about that was quantifiable. Being curious I was asking if you could support those types of statements.
FWIW I haven't tried projecting for the Titans as yet. I am a little further along with McKinnon and the 49ers right now.
I do not expect my projections to be accurate although I do try to make them as accurate as I can with the information I have available. I actually get more out of the process of making projections than I think the projections are worth themselves. I learn about other players on the team through this process and consider other possibilities of things that might happen that I wouldn't have considered before doing them.
I don't think using Freeman as the example for McKinnons numbers is going to be accurate. It is more looking at what players have done in the coaches system that I get out of that. I don't think McKinnon is as natural a runner as Freeman is. I think he will struggle with the outside zone scheme because of his vision. I do think he could be be similar to Freeman as a receiver though and the volume of opportunities should be there for him.
You recently stated a view that McKinnon would be in a 50/50 time share or 55/45 in McKinnons favor. The projection I did had him accounting for 57% of the total rushing attempts, which I had decline from last season slightly as I do not expect the 49ers as a whole to run the ball as much as they did with Carlos Hyde.
As for the Titans and Henry I have't tried to project for them yet. I do think Dion Lewis may be more involved than my interpretation of your view of that situation. Of course Lewis has had a ton of injuries, so because of that history I could easily see him being injured again. However I have been hearing good things about Akrum Wadley already in otas and rookie camp. I can see him filling in a similar role if/when Lewis is injured.
I had Henry on some teams last year. It was very frustrating to me how much they continued to use Murray, even when Murray was clearly injured and not playing as well because of it. It really made me question Henry and coaches trust in him. Maybe it was just Mularkey not being smart about how he was using his players, or maybe he had some good reasons I am unaware of to not use Henry more.
As you have pointed out, we do not know what Vrabel will do. He comes from the Patriots tree of coaching that has employed a lot of RBBC. Without any numbers for what you think Henry will do this season, at least for me it becomes impossible to try to compare these things in a way that is actionable. If nothing else doing some projections for the Titans will educate me more about their team and situation than where I am at with them right now.
eta - another factor to consider as far as how the pie of opportunities with the Titans will be divided is that Marcus Mariota is much more likely to run the ball than Jimmy Garopolo based on what those 2 QB have done in the league so far. The pie of rushing attempts for the Titans will likely be higher, but Mariota is taking a larger slice of that pie than I expect Garopolo to. Mariota has averaged 4 rushing attempts per game the last two seasons and I think he could be used as a runner more than that in 2018. Garopolo ran the ball 3 times per game in the games he played last season.
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ZWK
Footballguy
McKinnon gets $12M in year 1, $4M in new cash in year 2, $6.8M in year 3, and $7.2M in year 4. So, depending how long they keep him, it will wind up being a 1 year $12M contract ($12M/yr), or a 2 year $16M contract ($8M/yr), or a 3 year $22.8M contract ($7.6M/yr), or a 4 year $30M contract ($7.5M/yr).
It seems unlikely that they'll cut him after just 1 season, since paying him $4M for his 2nd season is pretty cheap and they wouldn't have wanted to hand him $12M up front if that would just be for one season (Le'Veon Bell is the only RB getting $12M+).
(It doesn't matter much how the $12M is divided up between signing bonus, roster bonus, and salary - that just affects which season's cap it counts towards.)
It seems unlikely that they'll cut him after just 1 season, since paying him $4M for his 2nd season is pretty cheap and they wouldn't have wanted to hand him $12M up front if that would just be for one season (Le'Veon Bell is the only RB getting $12M+).
(It doesn't matter much how the $12M is divided up between signing bonus, roster bonus, and salary - that just affects which season's cap it counts towards.)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So this is one of those rare situations where the QB is more valuable to the team that the RB?You might want to rethink that. The offense, and the entire organization on the field for that matter, unquestionably runs through Jimmy Garoppolo. They gave up a second round pic and signed him to a 5 year $137 million dollar contract with $74 million guaranteed. This is his team and he is the unquestioned centerpiece of the offense.
McKinnon is barely and afterthought compared to that. He's an expensive, but not cap crushing, blindfolded dart throw. Sure he's is handpicked, and I believe they fully intend to use him as they believe he can be used but I don't see his contract as something that guarantees unfettered trust. I think it is far more likely that he will be in a significant time share with Breida and/or Williams. 50:50 or, IMO, at best 55:45
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Chaka
Footballguy
Nope. It's one of those rare instances where someone needed to be reminded of that fact.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Both McKinnon and Crowell paid off very nicely (especially now since McKinnon's going to Shanahan's offense). Looking back at the touted running backs in the 2014 rookie draft, it's pretty embarrassing actually. All of Sankey, Hill, West, Mason, Archer, Sims, and Andre Williams went ahead of them. Really makes you wonder why we rank rookie running backs so high in dynasty. How many will be completely forgotten in 4 years from this class? At lease K Johnson and R Freeman. Who will be the Crowell/McKinnon? Boston Scott maybe.
McKinnon benefited from injuries giving him opportunities, but credit to him for playing well when he got his shot. He's a testament to drafting talent over situation.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He called McKinnon the centerpiece of the offense, heavily involved in the passing game - I think it was obvious to everyone that Jimmy G is still the most important part of the team and he’d be the key to McKinnon’s success in the passing game.
Chaka
Footballguy
Valid point but it's clearly not how I view the word centerpiece. Gurley, D.Johnson, Bell, Hunt are guys I would have no trouble calling centerpieces regardless of there QB situation. I'm not willing to put McKinnon in that group.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
How do you quantify a players value?
If you eschew projections and also the eye ball test then how do you determine a players value?
I hear criticism of two methods people use for player evaluation. I do not hear you saying what would be better than these things or even what other way that one could do so.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's a good catch, but I don't think he's correct. The clause I believe he's referring to (rule 13 article 6 (b) (iii) (5) Amounts Treated as Signing Bonuses.) reads:
The difference between the Salary in the second contract year and the first contract year when Salary in the second contract year is less than half the Salary called for in the first year of such Contract.
It looks like he's asserting that the Roster Bonus + the Salary being more than twice the 2019 salary makes them considered to be a signing bonus which he then pro-rates across all years, but I disagree with him. The rule explicitly only states Salary only and actually talks later about some kinds of Roster Bonuses (but nothing that this would qualify for). It's a strange assertation to make because the Garoppolo contract does the exact same thing ($6.2M salary + $28.8M Roster bonus = $35M total vs. 2019 salary of $17.2M) but he doesn't call it out there and I'm relatively certain it's a commonly used tactic.
https://overthecap.com/player/jimmy-garoppolo/3001/
https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/collective-bargaining-agreement-2011-2020.pdf
Chaka
Footballguy
Sorry, I was not clear about this. I do put a lot of work into this hobby but I have come to the realization that all of it is just an effort to rationalize my gut feeling.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't draft based off of my projections. I consider ADP and other things when making my decisions.
Ultimately it is a judgement call, but I try to make the most informed decision I can that is supported by research and information about the player and the team
I try not to build facile arguments to support my instincts, which would be the opposite of making a informed decision. That is making a decision then rationalizing it after the fact.
I think this happens more often than people would like to admit, but I do not think it is a good practice.
the lone star
Footballguy
So you all think McKinnon will top 1000 yards rushing this season?
I'm a huge McKinnon fan but 1000 yds rushing won't be realistic to me. They're not going to pound him. I do think 1500 combined yards rushing and receiving could be though. 60+ receptions, 9 TDs. I'll take it. Played matchups with him last year and it worked great.
the lone star
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't think 1000 yards rushing is in the forecast for him either. 1000 combined sure is, and maybe 1500. I'll say 1350 total/combined.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
You have a lot of faith in Breida and Williams. Looks like maybe the worst backups in the league to me. I’m not sold on McKinnon but the situation looks pretty good.You might want to rethink that. The offense, and the entire organization on the field for that matter, unquestionably runs through Jimmy Garoppolo. They gave up a second round pic and signed him to a 5 year $137 million dollar contract with $74 million guaranteed. This is his team and he is the unquestioned centerpiece of the offense.
McKinnon is barely and afterthought compared to that. He's an expensive, but not cap crushing, blindfolded dart throw. Sure he's is handpicked, and I believe they fully intend to use him as they believe he can be used but I don't see his contract as something that guarantees unfettered trust. I think it is far more likely that he will be in a significant time share with Breida and/or Williams. 50:50 or, IMO, at best 55:45
Chaka
Footballguy
Did Breida do anything last year to disabuse anyone of the notion that he can play in this league? 4.4 YPC, 8.6 Y/R and, as much as it annoyed the h eck out of me at the time he looked better than Carlos Hyde. I like Hyde, think he's very talented and I was impressed by his consistent usage but, to my untrained eye, Breida looked better in his limited opportunities. As I understand it, Hyde wasn't a good scheme fit for Shanahan's offense but that isn't relevant to Breida's production in 2017.
I have enough faith in Breida and enough doubt in McKinnon to make me think Breida should not be discounted based strictly upon his UDFA status.
Joe Williams is a total X-Factor but, if draft status means anything then Shanahan thinks he must have some talent.
If Breida had been say a 4th round pick instead of an Undrafted free agent, I doubt you would be saying this. As someone who watched all their games last year (painful at times), I agree with Chaka that Brieda looked better than Hyde a lot of the time. As far as Williams, who knows at this point?
Worst backups in the league is a big stretch. I would rather have them than any of the backups in the NFC West. You could argue Seattle I guess with Carson and Davis but I would rather have Breida.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Breida is way too small. Can’t see him getting many more touches than last year.efactor said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He and McKinnon are basically the same size. Both are athletic freaks based on combine metrics.
From what I have watched of Breida and Joe Williams which is mostly at the college level, I think Williams is a bit better than Bredia is. Williams has better change of direction ability that stands out to me, but otherwise similar level of talent.
Breida has the inside track to playing because of the reps he got last season.
McKinnon and Williams are basically the same size, Breida is about 15 pounds lighter.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
McKinnon was 209 at the combine in 2014. He has added some weight to his frame since then.
Breida is likely still lighter than McKinnon is right now, but no reason for him to remain svelte after his good 40 time. I am only speculating but I suspect he added some muscle before the 2017 season began and has likely added a bit more this offseason.
