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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (6 Viewers)

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Stud no more in fantasyland.  Hats off to those that traded him.
Gordon has been an interesting player to own over the years.  Although he’s produced like a stud, he’s never really been valued like on.  People always questioned his ypc and ability to stay healthy

 
Lots of folks burying Gordon a bit early here. He has been a 4.0 ypc back behind one of the very worst OLs in football, but has kept his TD rate high and the real difference maker is that he is well up in the top 1/3 of RB receiving production year after year. Lindsay just isn't very good at that (although admittedly he has had poop at QB his whole career and Rivers was a huge plus for this in SD/LA). So they may be fairly equal talents as runners, Lindsay looking slightly better behind a much better OL, but having a RB in the lineup that is just as likely to hurt you by pass as by run makes a team harder to defend than a RB who will probably only hurt you running. That's why they are paying Gordon like a lead back and treating him as such. If you take into account that he will, for the first time as a pro, have the zone blocking system that made him the best RB in college football, it will be no surprise to me if this keeps Gordon in the lineup and he has twice the touches Lindsay does going forward. Lots of unprovens and so risk, but high potential reward over ADP. 

 
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Broncos beat writers Ryan O’Halloran and Kyle Newman expect RB Melvin Gordon to be the team's Week 1 starter. 

In tabbing Gordon as the Week 1 starter, Newman and O'Halloran cited the money Denver paid the free agent back (a two-year deal worth $16 million). They expect RB Phillip Lindsay -- who piled up 2,485 total yards in his first two years as a pro -- to have a "chip on his shoulder" after presumably being supplanted as the Broncos' RB1. O'Halloran predicted whoever gets the starting running back job will be on the good end of a 65-35 or 70-30 backfield split this season. 

RELATED: 

Phillip Lindsay

SOURCE: The Denver Post 

Aug 13, 2020, 2:51 PM ET

 
Broncos RB Melvin Gordon said he's having a hard time adjusting to the altitude in Denver during his first training camp with the team. 

Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold said Gordon and backfield mate Phillip Lindsay have "essentially split the plays with the starting offense in camp's early going." "I'm struggling a little bit, I'm struggling a up here little bit with the altitude,'' Gordon said after Sunday's practice. "That's the biggest adjustment, working all offseason and coming here and still feeling like you're not in shape because of the altitude.''
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29674780/broncos-rb-melvin-gordon-struggling-adjust-denver-altitude

 
Fangio on Gordon and Lindsay: "I anticipate both playing enough where we really don't have to designate a starter"

from the twitter account of ZacstevensDNVR

 
They were the 5th lowest scoring offense last year with 282 points, so adding 10-15 TDs would put them in the 350-375 range, which would have been good for pretty much middle of the pack last year.  I definitely think that's doable with the additions of Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon to go along with continued growth from Sutton and Fant.  Lock has to perform and that is a legit question mark, but I love the blend of weapons on offense.  Feel like it will be difficult not to succeed with that cast.

I like Lindsay a lot, let me just get that out.  Hes been overlooked at every step and he just produces whenever he gets a shot.  Glad you mentioned Gordon is the better 3rd down back because it feels like most viewed him as that to Royster as a 2 down guy.  

So while I like Lindsay and think he'll be involved for sure, the Broncos have made it pretty clear they intend to utilize Gordon heavily, both with their words and their money.  55/45 seems generous to me, but even if it winds up there...last year, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 98 targets.  Let's pencil in Gordon for 70, considering we're orojecting the offense to be better and hes just a better receiving back in general.  His career catch rate is 75% and he averages 8.4 ypr.  Apply those averages to 70 targets and you get 52 receptions for 436 yards.  Throw in 2-3 TDs and thats roughly 110 points before we get to rushing stats.

Last year, the teams in the middle of the pack in scoring averaged about 1700-1800 yards rushing, and around 15 TDs.  Let's go with your 55% of the rushing yards and since he's always had a nose for the goalie, lets give him 9 of the TDs.  Thats about 950 yards and another 150 ppr points.  Where does that leave us?

260 points on a middle of the pack offense, which would have put him in the RB7-10 mix last year.  And again, this is only for a middle of the pack offense.  Theres plenty more upside if Lock turns out to be *actually* good.

Personally, I think Denver sniffs more around a top 10-15 offense and Gordon gets more than 55% of the work, so I see 300 point upside.  Its always dangerous to use last years point thresholds to project current year finishes, which is why I wanted to put this into pure points.  And honestly I hadn't run the numbers so I was more doing this for myself than to prove a point or anything.  Was genuinely curious.  The results do align with the generalities I had in my head though, so thats nice lol.

I really don't play redraft anymore, just dynasty, so no clue where I'd take him there.  I expect a two year window for this level of production so I am a dynasty buyer.  Hes not sexy and therefore able to be acquired. Everybody flocks to the younger RBs like Jacobs and Sanders, and sure they theoretically have more value because of age, but i see MG putting up more points the next two seasons than both of em.  Two years is an eternity particularly with RBs.  Projecting further out is almost pointless.

So yeah, I consider him a steal.  Aaron Jones too, for all almost all the same reasons except he's also a better player.
Even with his rib injury at the moment which may or may not be significant and the other mouths in the backfield, I think a 60/40 split in terms of touches(rush/rec) seems pretty logical for all the reasons you point out. 

Weeks 1 and 2 might not be so smooth but i think within a few games Gordon can establish he is a receiving threat and 3rd down back, add in his rush attempts and he does seem to point to potential steal. 

Excellent post

 
Melvin Gordon (ribs) isn't listed on the Broncos' Week 1 injury report.

This confirms Gordon's healthy after missing time at Broncos camp. Gordon will play Monday night, but his workload is the bigger concern in a committee with Phillip Lindsay. We expect Gordon to lead the Denver backfield in Week 1 touches.

Sep 11, 2020, 11:07 AM ET

 
I may be in the minority here but MG is highly overrated, imo.  Also, I think Lindsay outperforms him and continues to prove that he's the main dog.

 
Melvin Gordon rushed 15 times for 78 yards and one touchdown in the Broncos' Week 1 loss to the Titans, adding three catches for eight yards on three targets.

Gordon out-touched Phillip Lindsay 18-8 because Lindsay had to leave this one early in the second half with a foot injury and never returned. Gordon's longest run went for 25 yards early in the fourth quarter, and he pounded in a one-yard touchdown with 9:08 left in the game to give Denver a 14-13 lead. He did lose a fumble earlier in the contest. If Lindsay is out for an extended time, Gordon's floor will be much safer as an RB2. However, the Week 2 date with the Steelers is definitely one to avoid after Saquon Barkley was bottled up for an ugly 15-6-0 rushing line against Pittsburgh in Week 1.

Sep 15, 2020, 2:32 AM ET

 
You couldn't say he looked great last night but he was efficient and he scored. 

14th this week in my league-PPR, puts him a s solid RB2 option, if Lindsay were to miss some time you would have to bump Gordon to potential RB1 status or Top10 perhaps. 

 
You couldn't say he looked great last night but he was efficient and he scored. 

14th this week in my league-PPR, puts him a s solid RB2 option, if Lindsay were to miss some time you would have to bump Gordon to potential RB1 status or Top10 perhaps
Not likely, IMO. To be Top 10 Gordon's going to need 90%+ touches. Doubt that is the case.

Royce Freeman looked good in training camp (lost weight). Plenty of local news video of him running with the 1's, especially catching passes (see 6:19 of below video where Steve Atwater endorses him as a camp standout).

Last night Freeman clearly had a role in a couple 3rd down packages after Lindsay went down, and nearly vultured a TD from Gordon.

It won't be 50/50-ish as with Lindsay, but Freeman will still have enough presence to deny Gordon (temporary) bell cow status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jh5sHUBjbw

 
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Not likely, IMO. To be Top 10 Gordon's going to need 90%+ touches. Doubt that is the case.

Royce Freeman looked good in training camp (lost weight). Plenty of local news video of him running with the 1's, especially catching passes (see 6:19 of below video where Steve Atwater endorses him as a camp standout).

Last night Freeman clearly had a role in a couple 3rd down packages after Lindsay went down, and nearly vultured a TD from Gordon.

It won't be 50/50-ish as with Lindsay, but Freeman will still have enough presence to deny Gordon (temporary) bell cow status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jh5sHUBjbw
10. D.Johnson/CEH

12. A.Jones

13. D.Henry

14. M.Gordon...he is doing this like you said with less than 90% of the touches...what happens when he is the bellcow? 

Now you want to hype Freeman? Really? I've seen websites with paid professionals that say don't pay a wink of attention to Freeman. I'm just pointing out you might not be the majority thinking is all, nothing wrong with thinking on your own but I don't see compelling stats to back much of it. 

They signed Gordon to start regardless of what people might have been writing over the summer when nothing was happening, no camps etc...I can see Gordon being Top 10-12 at the end of the season when it's all said and done. He has the resume to prove it. 

 
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10. D.Johnson/CEH

12. A.Jones

13. D.Henry

14. M.Gordon...he is doing this like you said with less than 90% of the touches...what happens when he is the bellcow? 

Now you want to hype Freeman? Really? I've seen websites with paid professionals that say don't pay a wink of attention to Freeman. I'm just pointing out you might not be the majority thinking is all, nothing wrong with thinking on your own but I don't see compelling stats to back much of it. 

They signed Gordon to start regardless of what people might have been writing over the summer when nothing was happening, no camps etc...I can see Gordon bing Top 10-12 at the end of the season when it's all said and done. 
Whatever. It's not me "hyping", so please ease up with the hyperbole.

Steve Atwater knows a thing or two about Broncos football. It's doubtful those other "paid professionals" had a front row seat to every day of training camp like he did.

Just providing some info that might not otherwise be available on "websites."

BTW, your #14 ranking comes with a huge asterisk. Gordon wouldn't have been anywhere close to RB14 had Freeman either a) scored on the 12-yard RZ pass or b) the subsequent GL carry.

 
Whatever. It's not me "hyping", so please ease up with the hyperbole.

BTW, your #14 ranking comes with a huge asterisk. Gordon wouldn't have been anywhere close to RB14 had Freeman either a) scored on the 12-yard RZ pass or b) the subsequent GL carry.
🤷‍♂️

Reads to me like you have an axe to grind on Gordon, I apologize and I'm not using hyperbole, those are your words. Why does he have an asterisk but say Kamara doesn't because you take away his scores and Alvin Kamara barely scratched out any rushing yds 12 carries 16 yds, should have a HUGE asterisk next to his production this week. 

I understand and appreciate all good local inside info, you reference Atwater, cool. But again as I read it, I think you should be more open to what Gordon produced and he was clutch for Denver down the stretch last night. From what I watched. 

 
🤷‍♂️

Reads to me like you have an axe to grind on Gordon, I apologize and I'm not using hyperbole, those are your words. Why does he have an asterisk but say Kamara doesn't because you take away his scores and Alvin Kamara barely scratched out any rushing yds 12 carries 16 yds, should have a HUGE asterisk next to his production this week. 

I understand and appreciate all good local inside info, you reference Atwater, cool. But again as I read it, I think you should be more open to what Gordon produced and he was clutch for Denver down the stretch last night. From what I watched. 
All good. I'm very much a Gordon fan, so maybe just splitting hairs.

I was strictly reacting to the consensus narrative that Gordon automatically steps into a bell cow role and Top 10-12+ status. 70-80% of touches is my personal prediction (I believe 22-6 Gordon vs. Freeman last night, which is 79%).

The other thing baked into my view is a fairly tough schedule.....PIT, TB (Kamara 12/17 as you say) and NE in next four weeks. Beyond that there is LAC x2 (just shut down Mixon) and BUF. If Lock can't step up it's going to be rough sledding for the whole DEN offense.

If I'm wrong, Gordon explodes and Freeman rides the pine...feel free to bump my cautious outlook. 😉

 
All good. I'm very much a Gordon fan, so maybe just splitting hairs.

I was strictly reacting to the consensus narrative that Gordon automatically steps into a bell cow role and Top 10-12+ status. 70-80% of touches is my personal prediction (I believe 22-6 Gordon vs. Freeman last night, which is 79%).

The other thing baked into my view is a fairly tough schedule.....PIT, TB (Kamara 12/17 as you say) and NE in next four weeks. Beyond that there is LAC x2 (just shut down Mixon) and BUF. If Lock can't step up it's going to be rough sledding for the whole DEN offense.

If I'm wrong, Gordon explodes and Freeman rides the pine...feel free to bump my cautious outlook. 😉
Every RB has someone to share carries with (except for Derrick Henry, it seems).    I don't believe Freeman is more than JAG.  Atwater raved about him but he raved about everyone.  I heard a lot more chatter about the fire Lindsay had entering camp than anything else.

 
Every RB has someone to share carries with (except for Derrick Henry, it seems).    I don't believe Freeman is more than JAG.  Atwater raved about him but he raved about everyone.  I heard a lot more chatter about the fire Lindsay had entering camp than anything else.
So you think Gordon is a Top 10 RB going forward with Lindsay out?

 
So you think Gordon is a Top 10 RB going forward with Lindsay out?
maybe in PPR.  After last night, the offense simply doesn't have enough juice to sustain.  the OL isn't good enough to grind out a 3 yards & a cloud of dust type game, and the passing game needs time to develop.

If/when Sutton comes back, and if/when Hamler can take the top off of the defense, and if/when Jeudy stops with the drops, the offense will be able to sustain drives and MG will have opportunities.  I'd also add an if/when the defense can get off the field.  Yesterday in the 3rd quarter, Broncos had the ball all of 2:23.  Hell, the Broncos had 6 possessions in the 2nd half yesterday - 4 of those possessions had 3 plays (counting the final 0:17).  That's not a recipe for success for any offensive player. 

 
Once he got into a rhythm he looked pretty solid last night IMO.

Like all things week 1 it doesn't really move the needle for me one way or the other, but he appears to be at the very least a solid flex play.

 
I was a seller on Gordon, but he looked better than I thought he would last night. He did bring his fumbles from last year along with him. IIRC he fumbled a bit around the goal line last year a few times. I'd be a redraft buyer, possibly/maybe/not really dynasty. I think he'd command a first-rounder and I'm not sure I'd pay that for him for these two years, especially with Lindsay and Freeman looming.

But if Fangio's approach is as old school as his timeout usage, we're going to see a lot of Gordon, who has always been a fantasy volume king.

 
Mel G never gets any love, but has been a consistent fantasy producer for years - even when splitting time with Marriner Eccles. He'll probably end up being a ho-hum low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 once again this season in PPR, especially if Pip Lindsey tries to come back too soon from The Dreaded - which most of them do.

 
I thought he ran well and looked good, except for the fumble.   :shrug:
He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?

 
I like the usage I saw. He got some catches too which was nice. He was definitely the RB1 of a 2 back team.  15 carries and 3 targets is nice production for a guy going in the 4th round.

 
He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?
He didn’t have a lot of room to run on many plays, but he had some good moves in limited open space, had good burst, etc.  Really, the blocking was low-quality much of the time.

 
Seems kinda unusable this week vs Pitt after what they did to Saquon

 
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Melvin Gordon is the type of player that will run for 140 and 2 tds and all people will talk about are the yards he left on the field 

 
He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?
14 for 53 against the Titans after removing his outlier is solid.  Maybe more than solid.

 
@Pitt today, short week of rest, cross country 1:00 game, 7.5 pt underdogs, maybe they should be double digit dogs today.

Where is Gordon going to be in all this mess today? I could see something like 8/23 at the half, they fall behind, maybe he catches a few balls but I don't see him running for more than 30-40 yds today, is that overly pessimistic? The only way I see him being decent for owners is if he can haul in 6-7 balls. 

I never realized how few times Gordon rushed for 1,000+ yds in a season. 

 
@Pitt today, short week of rest, cross country 1:00 game, 7.5 pt underdogs, maybe they should be double digit dogs today.

Where is Gordon going to be in all this mess today? I could see something like 8/23 at the half, they fall behind, maybe he catches a few balls but I don't see him running for more than 30-40 yds today, is that overly pessimistic? The only way I see him being decent for owners is if he can haul in 6-7 balls. 

I never realized how few times Gordon rushed for 1,000+ yds in a season. 
Gordon looked spry last week, he looked like he lost some weight. But PITT is super tough match-up with a 2nd year QB. Gordon  could get some garbage time points if it's a route. Like you say he may get a few receptions.

 
Gordon looked spry last week, he looked like he lost some weight. But PITT is super tough match-up with a 2nd year QB. Gordon  could get some garbage time points if it's a route. Like you say he may get a few receptions.
Put it another way, i think Malcolm Brown who is ranked well behind Gordon this week on most sites, I think he can surpass him today. 

 
Melvin Gordon had eight carries for 26 yards in Week 3 against the Bucs.

He was more involved in the passing game, but caught 4-of-6 targets for just 12 yards. The entire Broncos offense took a hit with Jeff Driskel starting, and Gordon never got a chance to get going with Denver chasing points. His eight carries were the fewest of the season after Gordon had 15 carries in the opener and rushed 19 times last week. With Drew Lock out multiple games, Gordon could face another negative gamescript if the Broncos turn to Brett Rypien in Week 4.

Sep 27, 2020, 7:32 PM ET

 
@Pitt today, short week of rest, cross country 1:00 game, 7.5 pt underdogs, maybe they should be double digit dogs today.

Where is Gordon going to be in all this mess today? I could see something like 8/23 at the half, they fall behind, maybe he catches a few balls but I don't see him running for more than 30-40 yds today, is that overly pessimistic? The only way I see him being decent for owners is if he can haul in 6-7 balls. 

I never realized how few times Gordon rushed for 1,000+ yds in a season. 
8/26 and 4/12...38 total yds...nope guess I wasn't pessimistic at all. 

 
He’s had some tough matchups and Denver O is a dumpster fire  so can’t really blame him but hard to see things getting much better with Lindsay coming back. Guess decent matchup this week but don’t have a ton of confidence 

 
All good. I'm very much a Gordon fan, so maybe just splitting hairs.

I was strictly reacting to the consensus narrative that Gordon automatically steps into a bell cow role and Top 10-12+ status. 70-80% of snaps is my personal prediction (I believe 22-6 Gordon vs. Freeman last night, which is 79%).

The other thing baked into my view is a fairly tough schedule.....PIT, TB (Kamara 12/17 as you say) and NE in next four weeks. Beyond that there is LAC x2 (just shut down Mixon) and BUF. If Lock can't step up it's going to be rough sledding for the whole DEN offense.

If I'm wrong, Gordon explodes and Freeman rides the pine...feel free to bump my cautious outlook. 😉
Well, as long as we're patting ourselves on the back.......since Lindsay's injury the Gordon/Freeman snap distribution has been:

Wk 1:  22-6

Wk 2:  61-16

Wk 3:  39-24

Gordon = 73%

Freeman = 27%

 
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Broncos vs. Jets: 5 Key Matchups to Watch

Excerpts:

RB Melvin Gordon vs. the Jets run defense

The biggest matchup the Broncos need to take advantage of this week also lies on the offensive side of the football, and it features a polarizing player that brought a lot of controversy to Broncos Country upon his arrival.

Though Rypien is a sharp-minded QB capable of diagnosing defenses and understanding where to distribute the football to, his limitations athletically and in his arm talent are going to require the Broncos to take the football out of his hands, placing it into the hands of their $16 million running back. 

Gordon has yet to really take the reins as the premier back in Denver after signing his lucrative contract in April. That could lie at the feet of offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who only handed the ball to Gordon eight total times against the Buccaneers last week and has yet to give him the ball in critical short-yardage situations.

The easiest way to help out a young signal-caller, especially one making his first career start, is by shortening the game and leaning heavily upon the running attack. Having a quality running game can open up so many aspects to the offense by limiting long down-and-distance situations, getting linebackers to bite on play-action, as well as opening holes in the secondary in the passing game. 

Denver has to get Gordon going this week, and they have a matchup that they can take advantage of. 

The Jets have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, allowing 133 yards per game on the ground at a gaudy 4.3 yard per attempt average. They have also allowed three runs over 20 yards this season. 

However, Denver’s offensive line has struggled to gain traction and open holes in the running game averaging a meager 1.8 yards prior to contact on the ground coming into Week 4. Their offensive line is struggling upfront just as bad as the Jets defensive front, so something has to give. 

Shurmur understands that he has to refocus his attention back to the running game, especially early in the game.

“I think the run game is important, and when we run the ball early, we have to get more out of the runs early in the game,” Shurmur said during Tuesday’s Zoom press conference. “We have to use the runs to help us get in the end zone. We have to do a better job of running the ball throughout the game, especially early in the game in my opinion."

Denver’s running game has been significantly hampered by opponents stacking the box defensively, daring the Broncos to beat defenses with the passing game. But with a quarterback as limited as Rypien is with his arm talent, the Broncos may not be able to rely solely on an aerial attack to get the job done. 

Gordon is going to have some tough sledding this week, but the Broncos need him to have a big game. Their season may depend on it. 


The defensive game plan on attacking the QB & limiting the passing game could have an impact:

QB Brett Rypien vs. DC Gregg Williams

With the Broncos starting a formerly undrafted college free agent at QB in Rypien, there is an opportunity for Williams to dial up some pass pressure and help his defense finally turn things around. A veteran play-caller on the defensive side of the football, Williams will most certainly take note of how the Broncos struggled to protect the quarterback against five and six-man blitz packages. 

However, Rypien possesses a very high football IQ and did well to diagnose the blitzers that Tampa Bay sent last week. It was only one drive, but you could easily see that Rypien was in control of the situation and understood not only where to go with the football, but also what his protection scheme needed to do upfront to keep the rhythm of the offense flowing. 

Where this gets tricky is the physical limitations of Rypien and what Williams can do to force Rypien into bad plays.

Rypien doesn't have elite arm talent, velocity on his throws, or the touch necessary to make all of the throws necessary to be a starting-caliber quarterback at the professional level. He's also limited athletically, so there isn't much threat of him moving the football with his legs. 

Williams would do well for his defense by clogging the middle of the field, taking away quick slants, crossing routes, and other inward-breaking route concepts, forcing Rypien to distribute the ball outside of the numbers and down the sidelines. 

Should Williams force Rypien into throws he cannot make, the Jets defense could limit the Broncos passing attack to next to nothing.

 
Melvin Gordon rushed 23 times for 107 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Broncos' Week 4 win over the Jets, adding two receptions for 11 additional yards. 

Gordon spent most of the evening brickwalling, but in a laughable late display, he ran directly into the pile as the Broncos attempted to run out the clock. Instead of tackling him for a short gain or loss, the Jets let a dead-to-rights Gordon bounce outside for a 43-yard touchdown, one where he stole the soul of the lesser-known Lamar Jackson. It was a fitting punctuation mark to a five-alarm meltdown of a game for both sides. Tonight was Gordon's first 100-yard effort as a Bronco, though he's now reached 70 yards rushing in 3-of-4 appearances. With Phillip Lindsay likely to return for next week's showdown with the Patriots, Gordon will be more of a FLEX than RB2. 

Oct 2, 2020, 12:07 AM ET

 

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