They were the 5th lowest scoring offense last year with 282 points, so adding 10-15 TDs would put them in the 350-375 range, which would have been good for pretty much middle of the pack last year. I definitely think that's doable with the additions of Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon to go along with continued growth from Sutton and Fant. Lock has to perform and that is a legit question mark, but I love the blend of weapons on offense. Feel like it will be difficult not to succeed with that cast.
I like Lindsay a lot, let me just get that out. Hes been overlooked at every step and he just produces whenever he gets a shot. Glad you mentioned Gordon is the better 3rd down back because it feels like most viewed him as that to Royster as a 2 down guy.
So while I like Lindsay and think he'll be involved for sure, the Broncos have made it pretty clear they intend to utilize Gordon heavily, both with their words and their money. 55/45 seems generous to me, but even if it winds up there...last year, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 98 targets. Let's pencil in Gordon for 70, considering we're orojecting the offense to be better and hes just a better receiving back in general. His career catch rate is 75% and he averages 8.4 ypr. Apply those averages to 70 targets and you get 52 receptions for 436 yards. Throw in 2-3 TDs and thats roughly 110 points before we get to rushing stats.
Last year, the teams in the middle of the pack in scoring averaged about 1700-1800 yards rushing, and around 15 TDs. Let's go with your 55% of the rushing yards and since he's always had a nose for the goalie, lets give him 9 of the TDs. Thats about 950 yards and another 150 ppr points. Where does that leave us?
260 points on a middle of the pack offense, which would have put him in the RB7-10 mix last year. And again, this is only for a middle of the pack offense. Theres plenty more upside if Lock turns out to be *actually* good.
Personally, I think Denver sniffs more around a top 10-15 offense and Gordon gets more than 55% of the work, so I see 300 point upside. Its always dangerous to use last years point thresholds to project current year finishes, which is why I wanted to put this into pure points. And honestly I hadn't run the numbers so I was more doing this for myself than to prove a point or anything. Was genuinely curious. The results do align with the generalities I had in my head though, so thats nice lol.
I really don't play redraft anymore, just dynasty, so no clue where I'd take him there. I expect a two year window for this level of production so I am a dynasty buyer. Hes not sexy and therefore able to be acquired. Everybody flocks to the younger RBs like Jacobs and Sanders, and sure they theoretically have more value because of age, but i see MG putting up more points the next two seasons than both of em. Two years is an eternity particularly with RBs. Projecting further out is almost pointless.
So yeah, I consider him a steal. Aaron Jones too, for all almost all the same reasons except he's also a better player.