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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints


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Hill at QB is bad news for those with Kamara.  This TD vulture has no interest in throwing the ball to Kamara.  Zero receptions on 1 target with Hill.  Hill had 10 carries to Kamara's 13.  Winston would be the better QB for Kamara.  Lots of dump offs.  Hill likes calling his own number too much.  

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 I predict a lot more folks will be viewing Kamara as the MVP front-runner when we reach the final quarter of the regular season.

Not with T. Hill at QB.  

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I want to trade him in my dynasty just so I can get out of this thread. 

How in the #### did you not manage to put him into your starting line-up until this week? 

If it's a girl, Imma name her Alvin Kamara.  

39 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

Hill at QB is bad news for those with Kamara.  This TD vulture has no interest in throwing the ball to Kamara.  Zero receptions on 1 target with Hill.  Hill had 10 carries to Kamara's 13.  Winston would be the better QB for Kamara.  Lots of dump offs.  Hill likes calling his own number too much.  

Not with T. Hill at QB.  

And Payton wants to make himself look like a genius as much as possible. He will give Taysom every opportunity to score. 

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47 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Party's Over, another skill player that his value completely cut when the QB falls down with injury. 

No 1 RB in Fantasy rendered into a Jordan Howard role. 

Hyperbole much?  Kamara will be great, just don't expect him to get those 6 or 7 catches for 100+ yards.  And don't count on him getting as many goal line carries as he would with Brees under center.  

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18 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

Hyperbole much?  Kamara will be great, just don't expect him to get those 6 or 7 catches for 100+ yards.  And don't count on him getting as many goal line carries as he would with Brees under center.  

He didn't get any catches and won't be getting goal line work, and he really isn't a run between the Tackles guy so he's not getting 20 carries. 

10 touches a game now, 9 of them carries for 4 yd a piece, not seeing much value here going forward Jay. 

I remember your old avatar :D

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14 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

He didn't get any catches and won't be getting goal line work, and he really isn't a run between the Tackles guy so he's not getting 20 carries. 

10 touches a game now, 9 of them carries for 4 yd a piece, not seeing much value here going forward Jay. 

I remember your old avatar :D

Yup. Definitely droppable.

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16 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

He didn't get any catches and won't be getting goal line work, and he really isn't a run between the Tackles guy so he's not getting 20 carries. 

10 touches a game now, 9 of them carries for 4 yd a piece, not seeing much value here going forward Jay. 

I remember your old avatar :D

I would hope that Payton will recognize the importance of Alvin and wants to make sure he stays involved.  

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4 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

I would hope that Payton will recognize the importance of Alvin and wants to make sure he stays involved.  

I'm hoping for the best and eventually would like to see Winston but after Hill won the game starting at QB, doubt that is likely. Also think they should be moving in real fast on Hill for an extension, I think the Saints could get away with a short but meaty contract of about $10M a year for 3 years and let him prove what he can do. You cannot pay that guy anywhere close to what an avg QB makes in the NFL, he's about to enter Year 4, Saints deserve a chance to run the underpay the QB load up the rest of the roster that others have won Super Bowls with, enter the Chiefs last 2 years with Mahomes prior to 2020. 

I flipped this conversation into something else entirely. 

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8 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I'm hoping for the best and eventually would like to see Winston but after Hill won the game starting at QB, doubt that is likely. Also think they should be moving in real fast on Hill for an extension, I think the Saints could get away with a short but meaty contract of about $10M a year for 3 years and let him prove what he can do. You cannot pay that guy anywhere close to what an avg QB makes in the NFL, he's about to enter Year 4, Saints deserve a chance to run the underpay the QB load up the rest of the roster that others have won Super Bowls with, enter the Chiefs last 2 years with Mahomes prior to 2020. 

I flipped this conversation into something else entirely. 

All snark aside, Murray out-snapped Kamara yesterday, and there's speculation that Kamara was used sparingly yesterday as a result of the injury and lack of practice leading up to the game. Had they been in a tighter spot, Kamara would have been deployed as usual.

I would throw this game out, and use the next game as a more true barometer.

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39 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

He didn't get any catches and won't be getting goal line work, and he really isn't a run between the Tackles guy so he's not getting 20 carries. 

10 touches a game now, 9 of them carries for 4 yd a piece, not seeing much value here going forward Jay. 

I remember your old avatar :D

He scored on a goal line run yesterday and he is definitely a between the tackles guy when they want him to be.  He's pretty good at it.

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Week 12 Dynasty Risers and Fallers: How high can Justin Jefferson go?

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FALLER: RB ALVIN KAMARA, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Kamara did not catch a pass for the first time in his career last week, and Taysom Hill coincidently drew his first career start at quarterback. Instead of checking down to Kamara, Hill chose to push the ball downfield slightly more often than Drew Brees. Hill has a deep pass attempt rate of 7.1% on the year compared to Brees' 4.4% rate. He is also more likely than Brees to convert pressured dropbacks into rush attempts.

All of this wouldn’t be so concerning if the Saints didn’t seem set on Hill as their quarterback of the future. They gave him an extension last year that will keep him in New Orleans through next year. He will cost the Saints $16 million next year, $11 million of which is guaranteed. They also chose to start him over Jameis Winston, who has over 2,500 more career pass attempts than Hill. 

All signs point to the Saints making Hill their long-term answer to Brees’ impending retirement. One game is not enough to shake us off our priors on Kamara, but it is worth monitoring going forward. 

 

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Alvin Kamara rushed 11 times for 54 yards in the Saints' Week 12 win against the Broncos, adding one catch for -2 yards. 

Taysom Hill has proven to be disastrous for Kamara's fantasy value. Through two weeks with Hill under center, Kamara has finished as RB25 and (so far) RB29 thanks to a massive dip in pass game volume. The pass-catching dynamo has exactly one reception in two games with Hill as the New Orleans starter. Latavius Murray, meanwhile, has asserted himself as the primary early down ball carrier for the Saints, getting 19 totes against Denver. It's the worst of all worlds for Kamara, who as of three weeks ago was the surest thing in all of fantasy football. Perhaps Kamara will be utilized more if Week 13 gives the Saints a more competitive game. He should be regarded as an OK RB2 for as long as Hill is the team's starter. 

- Rotoworld

 

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I have Murray as well in a non PPR and am seriously considering starting him over Kamara.  He’s had more TDs, yards and catches since Hill became the starting QB.  Murray also seems more suited for the RPO and power run game that’s being used while Hill is the QB.  

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1 hour ago, skillz said:

I have Murray as well in a non PPR and am seriously considering starting him over Kamara.  He’s had more TDs, yards and catches since Hill became the starting QB.  Murray also seems more suited for the RPO and power run game that’s being used while Hill is the QB.  

Exact same boat here.  Only caveat is neither of Hill's starts was a competitive game.  I think I stick with AK41 this week hoping that @Atl is more of a back and forth affair.  But any way you slice it this has been worst case scenario for Kamara owners.

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ALVIN KAMARA'S TAYSOM HILL PROBLEM

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Alvin Kamara entered Week 11 with 648 yards receiving, 357 more than any other running back. He has played two games since. How many receiving yards does he have now? 646. What can Taysom Hill do for your PPR value? 

Yes, Kamara has one reception for -2 yards with Hill under center, but that’s not all. Hill and his power running have also managed to tank Kamara’s rushing value, with the running back going from an All-Pro trajectory to 24/99/1 as the Saints have beaten the Falcons and Broncos by a combined score of 55-12. Hill has managed 20/93 on the ground in that timespan, scoring a ridiculous four touchdowns. 

With the Saints literally facing a practice squad receiver at quarterback on Sunday, Kamara was kept under wraps as Latavius Murray dominated garbage time with 36- and eight-yard scores over the game’s final 17 minutes. Regardless of when the production has come, Murray has out-rushed Kamara 173-99 on Hill’s watch.

What exactly do we do with all this? On the one hand, two games is two games. That’s especially true when the second was a glorified exhibition because the league doesn’t care about competitive balance in the year of COVID-19. On the other, small-sample sizes are the reality of the NFL, and we now have two games worth of Kamara struggling for rushing volume and no longer being involved as a pass catcher. 

Drew Brees is expected to miss at least two more starts. For fantasy, they are the final week of the regular season and Week 1 of the playoffs. Will managers get anything from former meal ticket Kamara against the Falcons and Eagles, respectively, over the next two weeks? In the receptions department, two things are probably true at once: Kamara is going to catch fewer passes, but only one in two games is a fluke. Despite his doughnut with Atlanta two weeks ago, Sunday’s rematch should bring at least 3-4 against a defense famous for coughing up RB catches. Scrambling quarterbacks tend to check down less, but this Kamara center cannot hold. 

In the rushing department, the picture is less rosy. Kamara, who has ceded 10-12 weekly handles to Murray all season, now has two competitors for short-yardage carries. Hill is also a threat in the gadget touches department. Kamara’s reduced pass catching hampers his ceiling. Fewer carries cuts the heart out of his floor.  

Of course, this will continue to be a run-based offense for as long as Brees is sidelined. Even though he might view this as an opportunity to get Kamara a breather heading into the postseason, coach Sean Payton knows he can’t let Kamara die on the vine. We have probably seen Kamara’s two worst games with Hill under center. We just won’t be getting his Brees best. Mid-range to low-end RB1 now feels more appropriate than weekly top three. 

 

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My RB position is stacked. In a 10 team half point ppr I have Kamara, Ekeler, Mostert and Carson. I also have Hyde if Carson doesn’t play. I just can't pull the trigger and bench Kamara. Just not sure what Falcons team we will get this week. If they shut down Hill and Murray running down the middle, only option may be short passes to Kamara. Any way I look at it im going to leave a good player on the bench. 

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I'm finding it baffling that none of these "pundits" are even touching the topic of Karama being injured (foot). This has been the perfect storm of The Saints going up against teams they can beat easily without leaning on Kamara, and using Hill and Murray to get the job done. The story is in the snap count. I think this dip in production is more related to that, then somehow Kamara not being able to produce because of personnel changes. Give me a break.

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3 hours ago, lsufan said:

My RB position is stacked. In a 10 team half point ppr I have Kamara, Ekeler, Mostert and Carson. I also have Hyde if Carson doesn’t play. I just can't pull the trigger and bench Kamara. Just not sure what Falcons team we will get this week. If they shut down Hill and Murray running down the middle, only option may be short passes to Kamara. Any way I look at it im going to leave a good player on the bench. 

Benching Kamara for Montgomery this week. This is probably how it feels to be on death row.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Alvin Kamara rushed 11 times for 54 yards in the Saints' Week 15 loss to the Chiefs, adding three catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. 

Kamara didn't dominate targets like he has with Drew Brees under center for New Orleans, but his six targets was a team high. Kamara also had a team-high rushing attempts. He muscled his way into the end zone on a second half reception to cap off the Saints' best drive of the day. He'll be a high-end RB1 in Week 16 against an Atlanta defense giving up the eighth most running back receptions and the 12th most running back receiving yards this season. 

- Rotoworld

 

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Alvin Kamara rushed 11 times for 54 yards in the Saints' Week 15 loss to the Chiefs, adding three catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. 

Kamara didn't dominate targets like he has with Drew Brees under center for New Orleans, but his six targets was a team high. Kamara also had a team-high rushing attempts. He muscled his way into the end zone on a second half reception to cap off the Saints' best drive of the day. He'll be a high-end RB1 in Week 16 against an Atlanta defense giving up the eighth most running back receptions and the 12th most running back receiving yards this season. 

- Rotoworld

 

Rotoworld needs to double-check -- the Saints are hosting the Vikings Christmas Day. After that, the Saints go to Carolina to finish the regular season.

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17 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Feel sorry for anyone that was facing Kamara.  You just lost after the first game of the weekend.  

I am one of them that faced AK. 

On the plus side I can pay less attention to some of these games this weekend and selecting my lineup!

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