AAABatteries
Footballguy
I was with you until the last part. It’s not clear to me at all that he won’t run.
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Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Leroy Hoard
- Start date
Guido Merkins
Footballguy
I have a question which I have never gotten a satisfactory answer to. If you have a link, I'd like to see it
But, is the Republican Party obligated to allow Donald Trump to run as a Republican?? Doesn't the Party have some kind of mechanism to prevent certain candidates from seeking office as a Republican??
For example, if a known skin head Nazi wanted to seek office as a Republican, the Party can say "no thanks" right??
But, is the Republican Party obligated to allow Donald Trump to run as a Republican?? Doesn't the Party have some kind of mechanism to prevent certain candidates from seeking office as a Republican??
For example, if a known skin head Nazi wanted to seek office as a Republican, the Party can say "no thanks" right??
Sea Duck
Footballguy
First off, nice username. I was kind of hoping that it would end up being an Italian-themed Gordon Gekko parody account, so please keep that in mind for potential shtick in the future.
Second, I'm no expert, but it looks like the parties do have some control over who is allowed to participate in the primaries. For example, the Democrats have a requirement stating that candidates must be "faithful to the interests, welfare, and success of the Democratic Party", and they required Bernie Sanders to sign a loyalty pledge before allowing him to run in 2020. (However, they didn't require him to sign a pledge in 2016.)
Third.....there is no way on God's green earth that the Republican Party would try to block Trump from running in 2024. They need his supporters if they want to win, and the last thing they want is to create some kind of "Bernie bro" scenario, where Trump supporters feel like their candidate was treated unfairly and therefore decide not to vote in the general election. I think the best case scenario for Republicans is to convince Trump to act as a kingmaker who sits back and doles out endorsements. If he decides to run again, it will be bad for Republicans whether he wins the nomination or not.
dawgtrails
Footballguy
Yea, they would let him run but work furiously beehind the scenes to make sure he doesn't win the nomination
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Sea Duck said:
GordonGekko
Footballguy
Guido Merkins said:
Legally? Short answer is Congress needs to convict him in the Senate ( Article 1,Section 3, Constitution), so you'd need 17 Republicans to vote against Donald Trump. Once convicted, he can no longer run for public office. I have a hard time seeing that happening. Again, this forum is full of woke lefty lawyers and EXACTLY ZERO OF THEM have discussed Trump vs the Brandenburg Test. ZERO. Why? Because they know even if Trump acted like a total **** head with a mic in his hand in front of the Capitol crowd, that's not enough to put him in prison. Most lawyers are laughably overrated and tragically self overate themselves. They know it. I've always known in. And the public at large is starting to figure it out.
1) Trump has a massive down the ticket impact, no one who is an actual contender wants that fight in the GOP.
2) It opens the doorway to lift what has been considered an informal understanding in American politics - You don't go after POTUS when he gets out of office. If the DNC brokers this fight, it means all former POTUS and their families are fair game. Does anyone really want to see Malia Obama get caught up in something/anything and dragged through a public trial. Do you want Jenna Bush to be followed and have someone plant 3 kilos of cocaine in her house? Every enemy the Clintons have made will pour through every last single thing Chelsea Clinton has done in her entire adult life. There would be no end to it.
3) Trump will then have incentive to release every ounce of dirt he has on everyone in his decades and decades of high profile life. You will see more high profile "elites" in bodybags than when Octavian and Mark Antony decided to purge the civilian ruling class in ancient Rome. Everyone would roll into CYA mode and clean all loose ends. David Cohen of Comcast and Jeffrey Katzenberg of Hollywood would literally have to hide in Antarctica the rest of their short brutal lives.
Informally? Short answer is the RNC delegates could be convinced to not vote for Trump. ( This would require influence across multiple states, many of which are Trump base strongholds, good luck with that... ) Several problems.
1) Ted Cruz has massive influence with a large cross section of Republican delegates ( part of the reason I believe Crenshaw in 2024 has more than a punchers chance) and he's in the cross hairs too as being on Trump's side . This is also why the DNC and MSM have been hitting Cruz so hard, they want him gone badly because of his delegate influence
2) This would require the daily media cycle to cover delegates period for months. The DNC and FEC does not want the public eye on the issue of delegates, esp the Democratic Super Delegates which were leveraged and extorted into money laundering for DNC HQ. Even the Progressives don't want it, as this would force a deep dive into Bernie Sander's financials. How much money did he get to basically be a human punching bag for the Clinton campaign.
If you put Trump in prison, he's not going alone. Half of the major power brokers in the DNC will go with him.
Guido Merkins
Footballguy
LOL!!! Thanks. I used to be "saintsfan" years ago, but I haven't been here in awhile and couldn't find the old account, so I just created a new oneSea Duck said:
You are right about #3. #2 is what I was wondering about and I think you answered it as well as anybody could. They have some control, but probably wouldn't exercise it because of his voters
Stealthycat
Footballguy
give me a vibrant young leader - I'm tired of old rich people who are career politicians
if I were to choose, I'd do like Democrats and go with a black man and maybe LGBTQ VP combination , try and really bridge spectrums of voters .... but I doubt I see that happen and so, I am probably not even going to vote in 2024, that's how depressing this all is right now :(
if I were to choose, I'd do like Democrats and go with a black man and maybe LGBTQ VP combination , try and really bridge spectrums of voters .... but I doubt I see that happen and so, I am probably not even going to vote in 2024, that's how depressing this all is right now :(
The Commish
Footballguy
This seems pretty realistic. Everyone should pause and reflect on that.popeye said:
dawgtrails
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
dawgtrails
Footballguy
Stealthycat
Footballguy
this is a "who will be the gop candidate" thread - not a who will be the Democrats thread
dawgtrails
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
If you are looking for signs on where the GOP is headed this is a pretty strong one:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html
jamny
Footballguy
I was a Rubio supporter in 2016 and I think he's well positioned for a run in 2024. He maintained good exposure with Trump supporters and still stayed relatively independent enough to avoid being linked to him. He was clearly too young in 2016 but I'll be rooting for him next time out.
Saw on Fox that Ivanka is looking to challenge him in 2022 for his Senate seat. That should be interesting if true.
Saw on Fox that Ivanka is looking to challenge him in 2022 for his Senate seat. That should be interesting if true.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Best thing that could happen to the Republican party long term is Trump start his MAGA party and take the far rightwingers with him. As the Democratics trend further left there is room for a much more moderate party
tri-man 47
Footballguy
But I saw something on CNN today about a Trump person saying he wouldn't run in 2024 ...and also adding what seemed to be an implied threat regarding the impeachment hearing. It seemed like the message was: Vote to impeach me, and I won't support you moving ahead.
Sea Duck
Footballguy
The Arizona GOP might deserve their own thread. Or maybe this should just go into the "Why Didn't The Republican Party Save Itself" thread.
But, hey, if they want to double-down on a losing strategy.....who am I to discourage that? LOL
Pretty amazing move by a group that has two members in Congress who might be under investigation for their connections to the insurrection. Seems like a perfect time to double down on your support for the man who lost you both Senate seats and turned the state blue.
Sea Duck
Footballguy
I wasn't even referring to their support of Trump. (That's somewhat unavoidable, and it's probably not a dealbreaker for the fine people of Arizona.)
What I'm talking about is censuring your own members for petty things like "honoring conservative principles" or "using prescription drugs 30 years ago". What do they think they're gaining with such clownshow moves?
I'm open to be proven wrong in 2 years, but I'll be shocked if Kelli Ward's Q-Ring Circus flips the state back to red.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I wonder if she will also call him Little Marco.The Commish said:####
There IS a chance in hell that I'd vote for Marco.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
They should probably nominate McSally again for state office. She's a real winner.Sea Duck said:
The Commish
Footballguy
I dont think she'd have much of a problem unseating him in a GOP primary ......that's where we're at as a state
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Updated odds:
Donald Trump 24/5
Nikki Haley 8/1
Mike Pence 9/1
Tom Cotton 20/1
Ted Cruz 20/1
Ivanka Trump 20/1
Tim Scott 33/1
Ron DeSantis 33/1
Rick Scott 33/1
Dan Crenshaw 33/1
Mike Pompeo 40/1
Charlie Baker 40/1
Josh Hawley 40/1
All others (including Marco Rubio & Tucker Carlson) are 50/1 or longer.
odds courtesy of oddschecker.com.
Donald Trump 24/5
Nikki Haley 8/1
Mike Pence 9/1
Tom Cotton 20/1
Ted Cruz 20/1
Ivanka Trump 20/1
Tim Scott 33/1
Ron DeSantis 33/1
Rick Scott 33/1
Dan Crenshaw 33/1
Mike Pompeo 40/1
Charlie Baker 40/1
Josh Hawley 40/1
All others (including Marco Rubio & Tucker Carlson) are 50/1 or longer.
odds courtesy of oddschecker.com.
sho nuff
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
That’s actually fairly accurate. Turn signals and speed limits are optional, there’s a gator in every driveway, and hurricanes clean up your yard by removing absolutely everything not nailed down, plus a few things that are.
bigbottom
Footballguy
I wonder how Haley’s comments critical of Trump will end up playing out in terms of her viability as a front runner for the nomination.
It’s being covered by Breitbart, so it will be interesting to see how the Trump supporters react. Politically, this may have been a stumble by her. She was viewed by most non-Trump republicans as fairly reasonable, but also had the tacit support of Trump’s followers. She was looking like someone who could possibly thread the needle of building a coalition among those groups. Now I’m not sure.
It’s being covered by Breitbart, so it will be interesting to see how the Trump supporters react. Politically, this may have been a stumble by her. She was viewed by most non-Trump republicans as fairly reasonable, but also had the tacit support of Trump’s followers. She was looking like someone who could possibly thread the needle of building a coalition among those groups. Now I’m not sure.
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Roy L Fewks
Footballguy
Haley made a HUGE miscalculation. She thought the winds were blowing away from Trump and she was DEAD WRONG. She better hope that Trump isn't around in 2023, because it will only take one thumbs down from Trump to sink her chances.
sho nuff
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
That won't happen after he left Pence at the mercy of the Capitol mob and then waited 5 days until he talked to him.
This man holds grudges for life and he will never forgive Pence for not delaying the election certification on Jan 6 (even though his role was largely ceremonial).
sho nuff
Footballguy
Ooof...Romney seems to have had grudges against him? Liz Cheney...McCain
Pretty much anyone that has gone against Trump in anything
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HellToupee
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard said:
GordonGekko
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard said:
If Donald Trump runs in 2024, it will be with Ted Cruz as VP. Cruz has a massive network amongst the RNC delegates as a whole. He did a great job building those relationships for years and years. He also has a strong relationship with SCOTUS. Since he's already aligned with Trump, he has no choice but to double down here. Trump could use him in the many legal battles ahead. No matter what people think of Ted Cruz as a politician, no one should want to face him in a courtroom.
Mike Pence is effectively neutralized. He's seen as too aligned to Trump, but Trump denounced him before the Capitol protest/riots, so he's got nowhere to go. He's the Neil Dellacroce of politics. Trump can't carry him on the ticket again. He needs a woman with clean optics more than anything.
Nikki Haley denounced Trump because it was the right tactical move for herself. Trump needs her more than she needs Trump. If she runs as Trump's VP, she's aligned to all the ill will and acrimony and grudges he generates. That doesn't help her run for POTUS later. There's also a point where ageism works against all women in general. She has her own Super PAC and she has big money backers. She has the pedigree and clean optics and a strong narrative. She is the MOST valuable member of the RNC right now, she's the RNC's version of Pete Buttigieg. ( Useful to everyone, but can't win it on their own unless it's against a weaker opponent and have some long shot conflicts) She stands a better chance alternating Biden, i.e. a Democrat, than following another Republican. In 2024, the DNC also is going to carry a weak field and that's a much stronger chance for her to win. Some combination of Biden/Harris/AOC/Buttigieg/Newsom isn't going to make people go to the polls in droves. I believe Haley correctly read the field in that Trump would NOT give her his endorsement from his base in 2024 if he didn't run. Many think he would give it to Cruz, but I suspect he would give it to Kayleigh McEnany. People keep underestimating McEnany, and while I don't think she will have a chance in 2024, with Mark Burnett running a shadow campaign for her, she's someone to watch down the road. I believe Haley runs with Crenshaw. It's a very logical safe counterbalance. Neither are aligned heavily with Trump and both have relatively clean optics. Being "safe" is a nice contrast from Trump and whatever the DNC throws at everyone. The Mike Pence Experience is enough proof for Haley to separate from Trump. She's riding on the promise that, in time, at the polls, that Trump's base will vote for her just to spite the Democrats than hold whatever she said against Trump against her long term. She's making a calculated bet and I agree with her decision.
De Santis is interesting because he might be the only Governor to walk away from COVID19 with a punchers chance at POTUS one day. The list is long of Governors who have been effectively neutered by the pandemic and will cost them the rest of their political careers.
Four years is a long time. I'd watch, as I've said before, Wesley Hunt, and see where he falls or rises,he hits all the check boxes. From discussions I've had at Parler with some of the heavy hitters in private, the RNC appears to want to find and a groom a Korean version of AOC. Not progressive to the point of socialist, but a digital native with a good storyline and appeals enough to split the wavering Progressives out there and appeal to the growing number of young black conservatives out there. Also the fund raising potential with a Korean base would be staggering. As I've said before, the HOR seat that flipped to Young Kim in CA-39 should be generating far more interest from the DNC, in terms of counter strategy/counter tactics, but they don't appear to understand the pathway there.
Likely combos to emerge -
Trump/Cruz and Haley/Crenshaw or Haley/De Santis
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GordonGekko
Footballguy
Continued -
I really don't know what some, not all, but some of the Democrats in this thread are salivating over. Biden is the oldest first term POTUS in American history and there are deep questions about his cognitive health. Kamala Harris has a completely toxic narrative politically. AOC is a threat to split the DNC just enough to clear a Republican victory. She desperately needed Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar on her side to have a chance at the ticket but she can create a massive amount of damage to Biden/Harris. The nightmare scenario is if Gavin Newsom barely survives recall, he's not going to hang around waiting for California to pull his pin eventually. He will run for POTUS in 2024 while he hopes Pelosi lives long enough to help him. Newsom is the compromise choice for the DNC is there is a huge Obama/Biden/Harris and AOC/Squad/Sanders/Warren split.
Anyone who wants to laugh at Haley, Crenshaw and De Santis is going to have to do so with the reality that their own field might include Harris, AOC and Newsom.
Biden inherits the rest of the pandemic and a tanked economy with foreign threats looming and simply cannot push through enough public policy to buy the votes needed against Obama's insane intersectional coalition concept. Some people love to say Trump destroyed the Republican party without bothering to talk about how Obama and Hillary Clinton completely battered the DNC into most of this self inflicted mess. So Biden also inherits the ACA against this tanked economy and an aging population and the realization that many states will have a pension crisis on their hands very soon.
The most interesting part of all this is Pete Buttigieg is actually the best out of the DNC contenders right now. Some conservatives would vote for him over Trump. But DNC HQ won't let Buttigieg get the ticket, just like they turfed Bernie Sanders. So so many can't wait to scream Orange Man Bad, but won't say a single word when Buttigieg gets turfed himself. Trump was RIGHT, there was a rigged election, it was the DNC primaries. It was the shady openly arrogant double dealing by the DNC Super Delegates. It was Donna Brazile basically begging everyone to not put her in a position to end up in prison one day. It was Debbie Wasserman Schultz believing she was Tywin Lannister instead of just a glorified desk driving bag man for the Hillary Victory Fund. It was Elizabeth Warren realizing on air that the DNC had set her up to be ambushed by Charlemagne tha God.
In 2024, Pete Buttigieg will be the DNC's best hope for actual governance to build a world where people's children can actually survive should the Democrats hold the POTUS, but he doesn't fit the establishment narrative. Instead leftists will be outraged at the next Twitter bite sized lump on social media designed just to make them outraged over packaged storylines instead of paying attention to how the most legit DNC candidate in Buttigieg has already been cancelled by his own Party.
If you want to talk about lack of respect for voters, then DNC HQ and Donald Trump both think so little of most of you leftists, that's what they have in common. The difference is Trump actually gave you a choice. Talk about irony.
I really don't know what some, not all, but some of the Democrats in this thread are salivating over. Biden is the oldest first term POTUS in American history and there are deep questions about his cognitive health. Kamala Harris has a completely toxic narrative politically. AOC is a threat to split the DNC just enough to clear a Republican victory. She desperately needed Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar on her side to have a chance at the ticket but she can create a massive amount of damage to Biden/Harris. The nightmare scenario is if Gavin Newsom barely survives recall, he's not going to hang around waiting for California to pull his pin eventually. He will run for POTUS in 2024 while he hopes Pelosi lives long enough to help him. Newsom is the compromise choice for the DNC is there is a huge Obama/Biden/Harris and AOC/Squad/Sanders/Warren split.
Anyone who wants to laugh at Haley, Crenshaw and De Santis is going to have to do so with the reality that their own field might include Harris, AOC and Newsom.
Biden inherits the rest of the pandemic and a tanked economy with foreign threats looming and simply cannot push through enough public policy to buy the votes needed against Obama's insane intersectional coalition concept. Some people love to say Trump destroyed the Republican party without bothering to talk about how Obama and Hillary Clinton completely battered the DNC into most of this self inflicted mess. So Biden also inherits the ACA against this tanked economy and an aging population and the realization that many states will have a pension crisis on their hands very soon.
The most interesting part of all this is Pete Buttigieg is actually the best out of the DNC contenders right now. Some conservatives would vote for him over Trump. But DNC HQ won't let Buttigieg get the ticket, just like they turfed Bernie Sanders. So so many can't wait to scream Orange Man Bad, but won't say a single word when Buttigieg gets turfed himself. Trump was RIGHT, there was a rigged election, it was the DNC primaries. It was the shady openly arrogant double dealing by the DNC Super Delegates. It was Donna Brazile basically begging everyone to not put her in a position to end up in prison one day. It was Debbie Wasserman Schultz believing she was Tywin Lannister instead of just a glorified desk driving bag man for the Hillary Victory Fund. It was Elizabeth Warren realizing on air that the DNC had set her up to be ambushed by Charlemagne tha God.
In 2024, Pete Buttigieg will be the DNC's best hope for actual governance to build a world where people's children can actually survive should the Democrats hold the POTUS, but he doesn't fit the establishment narrative. Instead leftists will be outraged at the next Twitter bite sized lump on social media designed just to make them outraged over packaged storylines instead of paying attention to how the most legit DNC candidate in Buttigieg has already been cancelled by his own Party.
If you want to talk about lack of respect for voters, then DNC HQ and Donald Trump both think so little of most of you leftists, that's what they have in common. The difference is Trump actually gave you a choice. Talk about irony.
timschochet
Footballguy
There is almost no chance that Republicans can win in 2024 so I’m thinking this will be a sacrificial lamb. Ted Cruz maybe. Somebody ultra conservative and Trumpy. Whoever it is is going to get the crap knocked out of him and hopefully after that the party will revert to more traditional conservatism.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
You talk about things as if party leaders had control. Voters will decide who is the GOP nominee and as of now it clearly looks like they would pick Trump again
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