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No Mike Gillislee thread? Mike Gilleslee thread (1 Viewer)
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Insoxicated
With the addition of Cooks, Edelman still looking unstoppable, and Gronk presumably back healthy, I'd be surprised to see NEP with much more than 450 rushing attempts this year... or about 28 per game. This is barring injury and the usual caveats like opposing teams totally selling out to stop the pass, of course.
• Bount has averaged about 16 carries per game the last two years when healthy.
• Lewis has averaged 8 carries and 4 receptions per game the last two years when healthy.
• White has averaged 3-4 carries per game the least two years when healthy.
IMO: We might be looking at something like below by year's end:
Gillisee: 200-250 Carries
Burkhead: 100-125 Carries
Lewis: 60-70 Carries
White: 50-60 Carries
Injuries and "Hot hand" will likely play a huge part, not to mention the usual Belichick game-planning factor. Short of someone earning lots of goal line love, I'm not sure I see a solid RB1 on this roster.
Pats have had 19/14/13/19 Rushing TDs the last few years... so I think there are probably 14-16 Rushing TDs out there to be had... particularly with Gronk "healthy" (19TD years are when Gronk missed time)
IMO any attempts to pin down Gillissee's production with any accuracy are shots in dim light at best given the number of back as and the well-known volatility of the NE backfield.
Gun to my head: He lands 800-1000 rushing yards with 12-14 TDs (assuming GL duty) for 150-185pts. Add maybe 10 receptions for 50yds for 15pts in PPR.
• Bount has averaged about 16 carries per game the last two years when healthy.
• Lewis has averaged 8 carries and 4 receptions per game the last two years when healthy.
• White has averaged 3-4 carries per game the least two years when healthy.
IMO: We might be looking at something like below by year's end:
Gillisee: 200-250 Carries
Burkhead: 100-125 Carries
Lewis: 60-70 Carries
White: 50-60 Carries
Injuries and "Hot hand" will likely play a huge part, not to mention the usual Belichick game-planning factor. Short of someone earning lots of goal line love, I'm not sure I see a solid RB1 on this roster.
Pats have had 19/14/13/19 Rushing TDs the last few years... so I think there are probably 14-16 Rushing TDs out there to be had... particularly with Gronk "healthy" (19TD years are when Gronk missed time)
IMO any attempts to pin down Gillissee's production with any accuracy are shots in dim light at best given the number of back as and the well-known volatility of the NE backfield.
Gun to my head: He lands 800-1000 rushing yards with 12-14 TDs (assuming GL duty) for 150-185pts. Add maybe 10 receptions for 50yds for 15pts in PPR.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I have tried, but everyone seems wise to the headache of owning a Patriot RB. May as well hold him until a suitor comes calling.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I actually acquired him, got Gillislee and a 3rd for McKinnon and a 4th
Dope
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Running through these numbers I'm increasingly confident we're looking at a RB25ish type performance, or a solid if not a bit unreliable flex contributor...
He's currently going RB45 at 9.11 according to FFCalc, not sure how accurate that is. If so, that's a lot of value.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Data from 5061 fantasy football mock drafts between April 3, 2017 and May 3, 2017
Not enough time for the pre-NEP results to filter out. That will skyrocket. I could have sworn you could modify the window to use only more recent data but I don't see it.
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Insoxicated
Yeah you can move the chart and view him independently... looks like drafts yesterday he's still an 8th round pick, up from late 9th. Still RB 40-ish range. IMO he's worth looking at in the late 6th (12T PPR) and presents very nice value after that as a RB 3 or 4.
MattFancy
Footballguy
In the past 3 years the Patriots RBs have combined for these TD totals: 18, 11, 13.
Just because Blount got 18 last year doesn't mean whoever takes his role will be gold. First off, Blount > Gillislee. Second, it was a 2 man show last year at RB for the Pats. 2017 will be much more crowded with Burkhead and Dion in the mix. My (likely generous) prediction: 700-7
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
While i agree with tempering expectations. New england pats think he is better than blount....and blount is not yet on a team.....personally i wonder if dion makes the team. And burkhead is depth
In the past 3 years the Patriots RBs have combined for these TD totals: 18, 11, 13.
Just because Blount got 18 last year doesn't mean whoever takes his role will be gold. First off, Blount > Gillislee. Second, it was a 2 man show last year at RB for the Pats. 2017 will be much more crowded with Burkhead and Dion in the mix. My (likely generous) prediction: 700-7
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Insoxicated
While I appreciate your snarky response, it appears you forget to include the blue leading up to the post.... Usually you're better than this.
In the past 3 years the Patriots RBs have combined for these TD totals: 18, 11, 13.
Just because Blount got 18 last year doesn't mean whoever takes his role will be gold. First off, Blount > Gillislee. Second, it was a 2 man show last year at RB for the Pats. 2017 will be much more crowded with Burkhead and Dion in the mix. My (likely generous) prediction: 700-7
700-7? Assuming he's Blount's replacement and gets exclusive GL duty (as given as caveats in the post)? Particularly with a guy with a nickname "TD MIke" who had 8TD in 100ish attempts with the BILLS?
Ok. We'll see.
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Skoo
Footballguy
2016:
In the past 3 years the Patriots RBs have combined for these TD totals: 18, 11, 13.
Just because Blount got 18 last year doesn't mean whoever takes his role will be gold. First off, Blount > Gillislee.
Blount 3.9 ypc
Gillislee 5.7 ypc
You can't seriously think ypc on different teams playing totally different roles actually defines their talent... right?? If so,2016:
Blount 3.9 ypc
Gillislee 5.7 ypc
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Insoxicated
Well hell! We need to alert the rest of the Shark Pool that YPC is no longer an effective metric in evaluating RB talent!You can't seriously think ypc on different teams playing totally different roles actually defines their talent... right?? If so,
Learn something new every day....
The Pats are also paying Burkhead more than they paid Blount. His contract relative to other recent RB contracts indicates he'll be in the rotation.
I saw that. I just think using 12-14 TDs as a range is laughably optimistic. If you'd said 5-14 I wouldn't have given you grief, but that narrow and extremely high range seemed bizarre and a product of recency bias.
YPC is useful when used in proper context. I think most of us realize it means almost nothing on its own without context.
Skoo
Footballguy
So you're saying you think Blount would have done better than 5.7 ypc if he was on the Bills last year.You can't seriously think ypc on different teams playing totally different roles actually defines their talent... right?? If so,
That's your right. I just don't see anything that backs that up.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't really have time to tackle this, but here were the total # of TD's scored by NE RB's each season . . .
2016 - 23
2015 - 20
2014 - 16
2013 - 22
2012 - 25
2011 - 14
2010 - 19
2009 - 18
2008 - 22
2007 - 15
2006 - 24
2005 - 16
2004 - 17
2003 - 9
2002 - 13
2001 - 20
That's an average of 18.3 TD per season.
2016 - 23
2015 - 20
2014 - 16
2013 - 22
2012 - 25
2011 - 14
2010 - 19
2009 - 18
2008 - 22
2007 - 15
2006 - 24
2005 - 16
2004 - 17
2003 - 9
2002 - 13
2001 - 20
That's an average of 18.3 TD per season.
Is Blount signing as the lightly used COP/backup to McCoy in Buffalo?I'm obviously saying I don't think Gillislee would've done better than Blount in all those 1st down/short yardage situations as the obvious bellcow. It's one thing to come into the game as Shady's backup, but it's another thing to be the guy obviously icing the game. Blount had 199 carries on 1st down. 48% of his carries were while leading by 2 scores. Gillislee played 284 snaps, running the ball on 101 of them (36%). Blount played 529 downs, running the ball on 299 of them (57%). Teams were ready for the run when Blount was in the game. Defenses were breathing a sigh of relief that Shady wasn't on the field when Gillislee was in the game. Comparing a COP's ypc to a 1st down bellcow back is just asinine.
To add to this, using data dominator (back to 2002), the average number of rushing TDs was 15.3, so that must mean about 3 receiving TDs were scored by RBs. With Burkhead, Dion, and White, I doubt Gillislee will be getting a lot of receptions and I expect each of those guys to score a non-zero number of rushing TDs.
Skoo
Footballguy
Yeah, no need to talk down to people just because they disagree with you.
I'm obviously saying I don't think Gillislee would've done better than Blount in all those 1st down/short yardage situations as the obvious bellcow. It's one thing to come into the game as Shady's backup, but it's another thing to be the guy obviously icing the game. Blount had 199 carries on 1st down. 48% of his carries were while leading by 2 scores. Gillislee played 284 snaps, running the ball on 101 of them (36%). Blount played 529 downs, running the ball on 299 of them (57%). Teams were ready for the run when Blount was in the game. Defenses were breathing a sigh of relief that Shady wasn't on the field when Gillislee was in the game. Comparing a COP's ypc to a 1st down bellcow back is just asinine.
By the way, which one of these guys is currently on an NFL team?
I didn't say you are dumb or anything like that. I just said the comparison was asinine.
Blount is 31 and looking to get paid. Again, you are reaching here.
I've got no dog in this fight. I just think Gillislee owners are getting a little too pumped up about a guy in a crowded backfield.
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Insoxicated
I guess we have different approaches to this sort of thing. To me, Projecting 5-14TDs is lazy and isn't even worth posting. IMO: If you're going to throw out projections (and in this case I freely admitted it was somewhat of a shot in the dark with several caveats), you should at least take some semblance of a stand on where you think things will land.
Sure, a 3TD window is narrow. Will I be wrong? Maybe. But at least I'm saying something instead of just spitting out massive ranges just to be right.
IMO we have downward pressure on Gillislee's TD totals from Gronk being back and Burkhead's presence. Upward pressure from NE offensive upgrade collectively, reporting of Gillislee taking over Blount's role, and his noted nose for the end zone.
I stand by my numbers as my take on what I think might unfold under the circumstanced detailed in my post.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, what players did prior to coming to NE is irrelevant. They need to be evaluated based on how they will do with the Pats, not on their old team. I remember that people laughed at NE for trading a 2nd and a 7th to MIA for Welker . . . an undrafted player with 90+ catches and 1,100 receiving yards in 3 seasons with the Dolphins.
Just because Gillislee was a back up of COP back in BUF doesn't mean that's how he will be used in NE. Figuring out what NE has in store for him (and their other backs) is the challenge.
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Insoxicated
Agreed with Gillislee not catching much. Maybe 10ish balls.
White didn't get in the endzone last year.
My numbers were pretty clearly qualified with the caveat that Gillislee gets clear-cut GL duty. If carries inside the 5 or 10 are split up more evenly, I don't think anyone would project double digit TDs for any Pats Back.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If I had to take a stab at the RB roles as of today . . .
Gillislee closest to the Blount / BJGE role.
White similiar to a Faulk / Woodhead / Vereen role.
Burkhead the back up to both those roles.
Lewis a depth guy that has to take touches away from the other three backs.
I say this because I suspect BB is pissed at Lewis for taking so long to both have surgery and get back on the field, as well as fumbling twice in the playoffs. After that, White was the receiving back hero in the SB and Lewis was mostly an after thought. As mentioned early, the other three backs got paid. Lewis did not.
I emphasize the for now part, as players will get hurt, miss blocks that get Brady creamed, cough the ball up, etc. So each of these guys will get a shot for a bigger workload, but at this point in the off season that's how I see things.
Gillislee closest to the Blount / BJGE role.
White similiar to a Faulk / Woodhead / Vereen role.
Burkhead the back up to both those roles.
Lewis a depth guy that has to take touches away from the other three backs.
I say this because I suspect BB is pissed at Lewis for taking so long to both have surgery and get back on the field, as well as fumbling twice in the playoffs. After that, White was the receiving back hero in the SB and Lewis was mostly an after thought. As mentioned early, the other three backs got paid. Lewis did not.
I emphasize the for now part, as players will get hurt, miss blocks that get Brady creamed, cough the ball up, etc. So each of these guys will get a shot for a bigger workload, but at this point in the off season that's how I see things.
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Insoxicated
I don't own Gillislee in any format, just for full disclosure. I just see his talent and IF what Reiss is reporting is true (He's walking into a Blount-esque role, and IF he gets GL duty due to his noted nose for the endzone.... he could be a solid Flex player this year.
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Insoxicated
I'm not really one for giant ranges - I'm just saying I'd let that fly, but 12-14 just seemed waaay too optimistic. In 2015, the top RB scored 6 rushing TDs. In 2014, it was 5. In 2013, it was 7. It took Ridley 290 carries to reach 12 in 2012. I just don't see Gillislee getting that many carries.
Let's also not forget that father time is coming for Brady. If the cliff comes, all bets are off. At age 40, it makes all NE offensive players a bit riskier than most perceive.
I completely agree. And FWIW, I can't say I predicted 100+ receptions, but I knew Welker's worth. Partially from watching him a lot in college, plus he looked good on an awful Miami team and UDFAs tend to take a bit longer to hit their stride (largely due to opportunity or lack thereof).
My point about Gillislee being a COP was not to say that's how he'll be used in NE. I was saying that's how he was used in Buffalo and that's why comparing his YPC last year to Blount's YPC is just silly. I obviously agree that he'll be the "big back" in NE. I just don't think he'll have as large of a workload as Blount did when he was pretty much only sharing it with one other guy. And I also think Gronk will be stealing some of those goal line TDs.
Even the down side of your projection (800/12) is far beyond "solid flex player".
I don't even know why I clicked on this thread. I guess I was curious why I keep seeing it pop up and figured I'd see what the fuss was about. I'm not sure if I could care less about Gillislee. It sounds like he's going to be way overdrafted so I'm just going to go ahead and forget about him. I'm not saying I'm going to avoid him - he'll have fantasy value - I just don't think he'll be a value when compared to his ADP if this many people want to jump on someone for saying 12-14 TDs is unrealistic.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
To me, Gillislee is a solid Flex player at a minimum. I think this guy is really talented and gets a lot of carries as part of a great O. He is going to be a RB2 some weeks. As Ninja pointed out though, we need to be careful about where he is drafted. You have to be careful about any RB in NE.[icon] said:
To be fair, I just noticed FBG put up a consensus ADP and Gillislee is only RB41 and RB44 (0ppr, 1ppr). My guess of 700/7 would probably make him worth RB41. Perhaps this thread is not an accurate representation of the fantasy community's views on Gillislee. I would consider taking him around his current ADP, especially in best ball leagues (could see him being frustrating to own weekly with that RB logjam).
-OZ-
Footballguy
Well he's right that there's no guarantee of gold here but blount really hasn't been a great back for most of his career. He had a good rookie year but that's it. Until BB sought him out as a guy who would fit his system. Now that guy seems to be gillislee.This is your opinion. Gillislee hasn't exactly had the opportunity that Blount has had. Additionally, Gillislee has averaged 5.7 ypc each of the last 2 years. Blount has never been above 5.0 ypc playing with a better offensive line, and the best QB of this generation. I love it when opinions are stated as fact
Just because Blount got 18 last year doesn't mean whoever takes his role will be gold. First off, Blount > Gillislee.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
He's a hot property right now. Just traded him for a 2018 1st rounder - likely to be 1.10 or later.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I hate it, but I think he's a great fit for their system.
He's not the greatest pass blocker though so, so there is a possibility that he gets Brady killed or ends up in the doghouse over that.
He's not the greatest pass blocker though so, so there is a possibility that he gets Brady killed or ends up in the doghouse over that.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
It is also possible the staff coaches him up and he improves as a pass blocker.
Blount's rookie year was really good and sadly that was pretty much his best situation (Raheem Morris and Josh Freeman shouldn't be anyone's best situation). TB devolved into a dumpster fire the following years and then he was used situationally in NE (but did well with the limited work). Blount was said to be a potential 1st round pick before he got himself in hot water and he proved why as a rookie. So saying Blount>Gillislee is obviously an opinion, but I wouldn't have stated it if it didn't have good odds of being true. Gillislee was an unheralded 5th round RB cut from the then RB-needy Dolphins. His claim to fame is that he put up some stats as a backup in spot duty in his 3rd year. Blount has 7 years (and over 1200 carries) of being an effective early down pounder. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'll be genuinely surprised if Gillislee turns out to be a better RB, especially in this particular role, than Blount.
Last year it was pretty much just Blount and White, but this year Gillislee will be sharing the backfield with a newly signed Burkhead, a healthy Dion, and a recently extended White. I think he's a fine candidate for best ball leagues if the price is right (not sure that it is), but I don't think you can feel confident trotting him out there weekly in standard or PPR, but especially PPR where he'll basically need a TD to keep pace with pass catching backs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed with all. I traded for him last year as I have McCoy (gave Peyton barber and a 3rd which became dede Westbrook for gillislee and a 4th which became derek barnett) and have shopped him a little recently but noone particularly interested. I don't know if I'll ever feel comfortable starting him.
flysack
Footballguy
This is clearly someone who hasn't seen Gillislee play. I agree he'll be in a RBBC, but there is an outside shot he takes over that job and becomes a 15+ carry guy in NE. He's that talented. Super fast, great burst, and good vision. NE's line is good enough to open holes and that's all he needs to burn for 5+ yards. He did it with little thread of a passing game in Buffalo. In NE?
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