Pretty interesting article on ESPN.com from John Hollinger, the NBA stat dude.
Hollinger Draft Prospect Ratings
It is a lengthy article, so I will summarize. Hollinger came up with a statistical system to rank college prospects for the NBA. Backtesting shows that it correlates pretty well with actual on the floor production and, importantly, has mostly avoided rating total busts highly.
According to his system, Kevin Durant is the best college prospect in years and is a significantly better prospect than Oden is. He is also a better prospect than Carmelo, Boozer, Chris Paul, and Tyrus Thomas, who were the players his system ranked at the top of the last several drafts.
His system hightlights Hawes, Brewer and Law as way overvalued in the mock drafts and potentially big busts.
Another interesting tidbit is that Conley is ranked only slightly behind Oden.
This might be just another example of data mining, but his factors seem to make intuitive sense.
In any event, it ain't the Gospel, but it is a good read.