What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)

They did a good job this year weeding out the obvious value picks. I see a couple of players that will probably be heavily owned, but overall the prices are forcing me to drastically change my strategy compared to previous years. I'm doing some drastic things.

 
I feel like there are some cheap omissions I'd potentially be down to spend $2 on...

Brandon Lloyd - not enough passes to be consistent weekly, but this is a best ball league

Kenbrell Thompkins - could very well have a decent size role on a proficient offense

Peyton Hillis - someone is going to catch passes out of the backfield when Jennings gets hurt and it isn't Andre Williams

 
Suddenly, Mohamed Sanu isn't the sleeper I hoped he'd be. He'll be rostered a ton.
That would be a mistake. It's not like Jones is out for the entire season. He's the better WR and he'll be back soon enough that Sanu will have only helped you get past the easy elimination weeks. Plus, Cincy is almost certainly going to reduce passing attempts this year.

My favorite guys are the ones who are discounted because they are missing the early weeks - like Blackmon last year. Obviously didn't work out, but those are the ideal buys for me.

 
Hey all, I just wanted to put this out there so hopefully someone else can run with something similar. I wont be doing the gameday scoring thing that I've done in the past. I appreciate those that have supported it over the years, but with 2 young kids and a busy consulting job, it's just too much extra work for me to take on this year.

This dude wrote some software that a tech savvy person could use to integrate into a website or google spreadsheet or something.. https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame

The last two years, I wrote custom code to access and convert stats from the same source he was (NFL Gameday JSON API) to run the FBG35K Gameday Tracker.

I'm still looking forward to this contest, I just cant invest the time in this software again. Best of luck to everyone.
Completely understand OC and I think I speak for the entire crowd in expressing our deep gratitude for the contributions you've made. Keep it real, GB. :)
Hey all, I just wanted to put this out there so hopefully someone else can run with something similar. I wont be doing the gameday scoring thing that I've done in the past. I appreciate those that have supported it over the years, but with 2 young kids and a busy consulting job, it's just too much extra work for me to take on this year.

This dude wrote some software that a tech savvy person could use to integrate into a website or google spreadsheet or something.. https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame

The last two years, I wrote custom code to access and convert stats from the same source he was (NFL Gameday JSON API) to run the FBG35K Gameday Tracker.

I'm still looking forward to this contest, I just cant invest the time in this software again. Best of luck to everyone.
Iggy's got this. Thanks OC.
Thanks guys.

 
Suddenly, Mohamed Sanu isn't the sleeper I hoped he'd be. He'll be rostered a ton.
Had him on my roster too.
Sanu is a little bit of a tricky case. He certainly will have a bump in the first three weeks. And perhaps in weeks 5 through 7 he'll be fine as well as Jones gets back up to speed. The ultimate question is will be play well enough that he'll basically carve out a gig as being indispensable by that point. Open to debate.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Suddenly, Mohamed Sanu isn't the sleeper I hoped he'd be. He'll be rostered a ton.
Had him on my roster too.
Sanu is a little bit of a tricky case. He certainly will have a bump in the first three weeks. And perhaps in weeks 5 through 7 he'll be fine as well as Jones gets back up to speed. The ultimate question is will be play well enough that he'll basically carve out a gig as being indispensable by that point. Open to debate.

-QG
If you need a $3 WR he makes a strong case and you could certainly do worse. But I just don't feel like he'll be a "must" have.

 
20 players! I'm trying to get more and just can't do it! lol I'm a broken record.

I've found a couple players now who I *THINK* might be solid value, but man, I don't ever remember having such a hard time. Obviously with a roster of 20, my depth is crap. I'm trying very hard to keep a third kicker on my roster, and I've played around with a few different strategies, but I just can't seem to bring the roster size up. Eesh.

 
I've been bouncing around between 18 and 20. Its 18 at the moment:

2 QBs @ $26

4 RBs @ $81

6 WRs @ $92

2 TEs @ $39

2 Ks @ $6

2 Ds @ $6

Last year I think I had about $100 spent at RB. I was looking to bring that down this year and spend more at WR. I've tweaked it a BUNCH. I really like the guys I have in there now, we'll see what happens in pre-season, I expect it to change a lot more. This current setup has a nice bye week balance to it though. Thats critical w/ smaller teams.

 
I never find the mid level guys to be worthy of their price aside from surprises like if West were to win the starting job or something. Right now I have 30 players. I have huge gap between my 6th and 7th highest priced players at $21 to $7

 
has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.

 
has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.
I don't have any data to back up my opinion but I have I think that 3 cheap K's is the way go. Back in 2007 when the Patriots were scoring at an all time high Gostowski might net you 7 points in a 49-0 blowout whereas a kicker on a poor team gave you 9-13 in a 28-9 loss. I've always gone with the 3 kicker strategy in this contest.

 
cvnpoka said:
has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.
My own anecdotal evidence suggests that only owning two kickers leaves often leaves you very exposed, especially during a bye-week, let alone an injury. I've not gone the three-defense route in the past, so I can't speak from great experience on that, but if you are using the bargain big for defenses, I would imagine 3 is better than 2, just based on the fact that they're not expected to be consistent scorers, so the more the merrier. I would not load up on more than two defenses if I was paying anything more than the minimum across the board. If I was moved enough by a particular defense that I was going to pay more than the minimum for them, I would probably go with the more expensive defense as the presumed "starter" and then carry another cheapo for bye-week coverage and maybe an occasional surprise.

 
I'm also finding it hard to go beyond ~21-22 players. Looks like this is going to be a boom or bust year. I think Doug did a good job of weeding out the obvious steals - like last year's Julius Thomas, or Percy Harvin from 3-4 years ago.

I suspect the winner of this year will have one or two low priced guys who more-or-less randomly became relevant and augmented their studs. (Either through injury, trade, or some other event that could have happened to a number of other similarly priced players.)

 
The players aren't in the same order for my team?? Anyone else seeing a difference?
Can you elaborate on this, please?
Just as a quick example - the TE order had Graham on the top at 30, then Gronk at 26 and Julius at 26. It switched to Graham 30, Julius 26, Gronk 26. No values changed, just their location on the page. Several players "relocated" within their price, but none changed. When you stare at this thing as much as I do, you notice things lol. But it's completely inconsequential.

 
I think I've done it. I've finally put together a team that I think has a legit chance to make a run. :blackdot:

2/5/8/2/3/3

$33/$71/$93/$34/$9/$10

 
The players aren't in the same order for my team?? Anyone else seeing a difference?
Can you elaborate on this, please?
Just as a quick example - the TE order had Graham on the top at 30, then Gronk at 26 and Julius at 26. It switched to Graham 30, Julius 26, Gronk 26. No values changed, just their location on the page. Several players "relocated" within their price, but none changed. When you stare at this thing as much as I do, you notice things lol. But it's completely inconsequential.
Ah, OK, thanks for the clarification.

 
The biggest lesson I've had reinforced after over-analyzing last year's stats is the criticality of bye weeks.

I really thought I had a well balanced team. I looked at matchups for each position each week, did stats on the last 5 years at each position and more. The last 2 days before lock in I discovered a small trend that I thought would make a real difference in my weekly scoring and started retooling to take advantage, and in so doing I got so excited that I forgot to appropriately weigh bye weeks.

Turns out my analysis was mostly correct and my 19 player roster had the firepower to carry me to week 14 where I would have been only 5 points from advancing to week 15. That is, if I hadn't scored exactly zero at flex in week 9 due to screwing up my bye weeks.

Looking at the players this year I'm still undecided which "value" players I'm going to target and which positions I need to focus but whatever you do be sure you look closely at your bye weeks.

Edit:

Week 10 is looking like a total killer.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.

 
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
Just when I thought my man crush on you couldn't get any bigger.....

 
Been hovering around 21 players, but just had a brainstorm and somehow made it up to 26. Of course that will probably change.

 
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
I bet Iggy's machine predicts the future :) It'll probably spit out the eventual champion after week one :)

-QG

 
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
Where are you pulling the live starts from? Scraping NFL.com?
 
has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.
Last year I wanted to be sure not to worry about the defense slot and my other selections allowed me the budget to roll with 2 top Ds so I went with Seattle and San Fran. I didn't expect them to be the top producers (since D is notoriously difficult to predict) but I hoped they would be relatively safe and consistent bets.

Here's a sample of defensive scoring from last year:

Name Position Cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average Points

Kansas City D $4.00 18 7 22 15 15 22 7 3 18 0 2 1 10 22 20 1 11.4375

St. Louis D $5.00 8 2 3 6 14 25 4 7 8 25 0 13 6 3 10 11 9.0625

Arizona Cardinals D $4.00 10 3 6 8 17 6 7 12 0 11 6 9 5 16 15 8 8.6875

Seattle Seahawks D $6.00 5 15 9 16 8 6 11 7 3 4 16 0 9 4 14 10 8.5625

Buffalo Bills D $3.00 13 8 4 14 5 5 14 4 2 6 18 0 8 5 11 11 8

Cincinnati Bengals D $5.00 2 6 12 3 8 7 0 20 5 11 24 0 8 0 3 18 7.9375

Carolina Panthers D $3.00 4 5 13 0 8 7 16 5 15 10 6 5 8 2 12 10 7.875

Chicago Bears D $5.00 7 13 25 7 2 13 9 0 7 2 13 2 7 2 10 4 7.6875

New England D $5.00 4 12 5 4 8 5 12 12 11 0 3 9 3 1 6 24 7.4375

San Francisco D $6.00 6 6 1 9 15 11 11 8 0 8 5 6 5 4 12 11 7.375

Tampa Bay D $4.00 9 14 5 7 0 3 2 3 6 6 15 18 4 17 2 5 7.25

Dallas Cowboys D $4.00 23 4 8 9 4 13 9 9 12 1 0 10 4 1 4 2 7.0625

Philadelphia Eagles D $3.00 11 5 5 1 9 4 6 9 7 5 8 0 11 6 5 17 6.8125

Cleveland Browns D $4.00 8 4 12 6 18 3 1 6 9 0 10 0 4 8 20 0 6.8125

Washington Redskins D $3.00 12 4 9 17 0 3 10 16 5 3 3 4 5 2 7 6 6.625

Indianapolis Colts D $3.00 5 7 7 16 12 2 12 0 1 4 2 3 9 0 10 12 6.375

Oakland Raiders D $3.00 4 5 5 9 18 5 0 9 2 13 6 2 10 3 4 7 6.375

Detroit Lions D $3.00 13 9 6 17 1 6 1 0 0 4 1 4 15 14 1 8 6.25

New York D $4.00 4 2 5 7 1 0 7 10 0 14 12 6 7 4 5 14 6.125

Baltimore Ravens D $4.00 5 5 17 8 6 7 5 0 4 11 2 9 0 8 7 2 6

Tennessee Titans D $3.00 9 12 4 19 6 12 2 0 6 7 1 4 7 0 2 4 5.9375

Pittsburgh Steelers D $5.00 3 0 2 1 0 7 1 8 5 5 8 19 2 11 9 13 5.875

Atlanta Falcons D $4.00 4 8 9 0 4 0 11 5 5 1 2 1 4 15 15 3 5.4375

New Orleans D $3.00 7 5 8 12 5 7 0 10 2 3 5 7 1 5 0 6 5.1875

San Diego D $3.00 4 3 2 5 4 3 8 0 8 4 6 7 4 8 3 5 4.625

Houston Texans D $5.00 10 6 2 9 1 0 6 0 4 7 8 3 3 1 3 1 4

This is obviously sorted by average points/week. As you can see, even the top defense only scored in double digits 9 out of 16 weeks while the next five only scored in double digits 6 out of 16 weeks.

In a perfect world my defense slot would give me at least 10 points weekly. You would have had to roster the top 4 teams on this list at a cost of $19 to get that production last year, and that's assuming you were able to predict which 4 teams would end up on top.

As I mentioned Defense has always been one of the most difficult positions to predict and my analysis leads me to believe that reliable production from that position is prohibitively expensive. Unless something changes I plan on rostering two $3 defenses this year and leveraging my funds at other positions where production is more predictable (relatively speaking). If someone were to commit to a 4-5 defense strategy it's likely they'd have a positional advantage over the other teams most weeks, but my opinion is that this would be more than offset by the disadvantage produced by the reduced budget at the other positions.

Kickers are even more of a crapshoot imho, but it's pretty much necessary to roster at least 3 kickers. You'll never have a team defense get injured or cut and leave you without points for the year whereas both are realistic outcomes with kickers.

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think I have my lineup if the season started today. How crazy would it be to go with 3 rookie WRs, 2 second year & 1 third year? I wanted a bigger roster but they all looked crappy, ended up with 22. 3 QB, 5 RB, 6 WR, 4 TE, 2 K, 2 TD

 
I think I have my lineup if the season started today. How crazy would it be to go with 3 rookie WRs, 2 second year & 1 third year? I wanted a bigger roster but they all looked crappy, ended up with 22. 3 QB, 5 RB, 6 WR, 4 TE, 2 K, 2 TD
Not crazy at all. If you want to win you need to underpay for points, and unproven players can be a way to do that. The only part of your numbers that concern me is the 2 kickers. The prevailing wisdom seems to be 3 kickers is the way to go, at least that's what I've seen in these threads previously and my analysis tends to agree.

I'd love to hear the reasoning for taking more or less than 3 at that position.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I know this has been hashed out before, but it just bothers me to no end that there are no players valued at $1. :lol:

Well, here goes nothing!

 
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
Where are you pulling the live starts from? Scraping NFL.com?
https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame

 
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
Where are you pulling the live starts from? Scraping NFL.com?
https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame
Man, I could used this a few years back. When I built that scoring ap (that built WAP pages for people to check out their scores on their phone or get them texted to them, this was the same year the OG iphone came out)... paid $30K for a live NFL scoring feed. This is free? And is it up to the minute?

 
Current team:

QBs - 3 - $31

RBs - 6 - $89

Wrs - 11 - $75

Te - 4 - $36

Def - 3 - $10

Pk - 3 - $9

Probably should drop some lower wrs for some lower cost rbs, but went top heavy on rbs and shotgun blast at wr. Really happy with my qb trio and loving my tes atm.

The WR/RB balance is what I'm struggling with... and have changed 97 times. Especially since both my top 2 wrs (by cost) are week 10 byes.

 
(HULK) said:
Organized Chaos said:
I'll have live scoring up and running by the start of the season.
Just to update, I put something together last week and tested it over the weekend and it looks to be working great. I still have some fixes to make and functionality to add, but it will be good to go for the regular season. I may ask folks to check it out in preseason week 3 or 4 just to get a few more eyeballs on it before it goes live for real.
Where are you pulling the live starts from? Scraping NFL.com?
https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame
Man, I could used this a few years back. When I built that scoring ap (that built WAP pages for people to check out their scores on their phone or get them texted to them, this was the same year the OG iphone came out)... paid $30K for a live NFL scoring feed. This is free? And is it up to the minute?
Tried to send you a PM, looks like your inbox is full.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top