has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.
Last year I wanted to be sure not to worry about the defense slot and my other selections allowed me the budget to roll with 2 top Ds so I went with Seattle and San Fran. I didn't expect them to be the top producers (since D is notoriously difficult to predict) but I hoped they would be relatively safe and consistent bets.
Here's a sample of defensive scoring from last year:
Name Position Cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average Points
Kansas City D $4.00 18 7 22 15 15 22 7 3 18 0 2 1 10 22 20 1 11.4375
St. Louis D $5.00 8 2 3 6 14 25 4 7 8 25 0 13 6 3 10 11 9.0625
Arizona Cardinals D $4.00 10 3 6 8 17 6 7 12 0 11 6 9 5 16 15 8 8.6875
Seattle Seahawks D $6.00 5 15 9 16 8 6 11 7 3 4 16 0 9 4 14 10 8.5625
Buffalo Bills D $3.00 13 8 4 14 5 5 14 4 2 6 18 0 8 5 11 11 8
Cincinnati Bengals D $5.00 2 6 12 3 8 7 0 20 5 11 24 0 8 0 3 18 7.9375
Carolina Panthers D $3.00 4 5 13 0 8 7 16 5 15 10 6 5 8 2 12 10 7.875
Chicago Bears D $5.00 7 13 25 7 2 13 9 0 7 2 13 2 7 2 10 4 7.6875
New England D $5.00 4 12 5 4 8 5 12 12 11 0 3 9 3 1 6 24 7.4375
San Francisco D $6.00 6 6 1 9 15 11 11 8 0 8 5 6 5 4 12 11 7.375
Tampa Bay D $4.00 9 14 5 7 0 3 2 3 6 6 15 18 4 17 2 5 7.25
Dallas Cowboys D $4.00 23 4 8 9 4 13 9 9 12 1 0 10 4 1 4 2 7.0625
Philadelphia Eagles D $3.00 11 5 5 1 9 4 6 9 7 5 8 0 11 6 5 17 6.8125
Cleveland Browns D $4.00 8 4 12 6 18 3 1 6 9 0 10 0 4 8 20 0 6.8125
Washington Redskins D $3.00 12 4 9 17 0 3 10 16 5 3 3 4 5 2 7 6 6.625
Indianapolis Colts D $3.00 5 7 7 16 12 2 12 0 1 4 2 3 9 0 10 12 6.375
Oakland Raiders D $3.00 4 5 5 9 18 5 0 9 2 13 6 2 10 3 4 7 6.375
Detroit Lions D $3.00 13 9 6 17 1 6 1 0 0 4 1 4 15 14 1 8 6.25
New York D $4.00 4 2 5 7 1 0 7 10 0 14 12 6 7 4 5 14 6.125
Baltimore Ravens D $4.00 5 5 17 8 6 7 5 0 4 11 2 9 0 8 7 2 6
Tennessee Titans D $3.00 9 12 4 19 6 12 2 0 6 7 1 4 7 0 2 4 5.9375
Pittsburgh Steelers D $5.00 3 0 2 1 0 7 1 8 5 5 8 19 2 11 9 13 5.875
Atlanta Falcons D $4.00 4 8 9 0 4 0 11 5 5 1 2 1 4 15 15 3 5.4375
New Orleans D $3.00 7 5 8 12 5 7 0 10 2 3 5 7 1 5 0 6 5.1875
San Diego D $3.00 4 3 2 5 4 3 8 0 8 4 6 7 4 8 3 5 4.625
Houston Texans D $5.00 10 6 2 9 1 0 6 0 4 7 8 3 3 1 3 1 4
This is obviously sorted by average points/week. As you can see, even the top defense only scored in double digits 9 out of 16 weeks while the next five only scored in double digits 6 out of 16 weeks.
In a perfect world my defense slot would give me at least 10 points weekly. You would have had to roster the top 4 teams on this list at a cost of $19 to get that production last year, and that's assuming you were able to predict which 4 teams would end up on top.
As I mentioned Defense has always been one of the most difficult positions to predict and my analysis leads me to believe that reliable production from that position is prohibitively expensive. Unless something changes I plan on rostering two $3 defenses this year and leveraging my funds at other positions where production is more predictable (relatively speaking). If someone were to commit to a 4-5 defense strategy it's likely they'd have a positional advantage over the other teams most weeks, but my opinion is that this would be more than offset by the disadvantage produced by the reduced budget at the other positions.
Kickers are even more of a crapshoot imho, but it's pretty much necessary to roster at least 3 kickers. You'll never have a team defense get injured or cut and leave you without points for the year whereas both are realistic outcomes with kickers.
EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.