2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[rustycolts]

Doing them individually? How do you get it for your whole team? firs ttime using the website 

steelers live scoring app.  try this link  http://calcomatic.com/Home

 

[hagmania]

Gimmick lineup for me. Leaning heavily on SOS, especially SOS 14-16, probably cut around week 6 because the lineup just isn't that good lolol. When I say I gimmicked it with SOS, I mean it. I didn't allow what I would consider my starters to have a bye week or a "difficult" weak without an "easy" week or two that could cover for it. I let other experts set SOS and I did none of that particular evaluation myself. I only had time to experiment with combinations.

QB
Bortles, Blake - 7.62% - 9 - $8
Taylor, Tyrod - 6.25% - 11 - $7
Flacco, Joe - 10.61% - 10 - $5

Whereas Taylor will probably sit eventually, I do actually expect Flacco to start the full season with the Ravens looking like a playoff team. I can't really explain the Tyrod Taylor selection aside from gut, and possibly (if it bears out unfavorably) simply a mistake. I'm in need of lots of excellent #BlakeBortlesFacts this year, apparently.

RB
Gordon, Melvin - 7.96% - 8 - $30
Hunt, Kareem - 5.28% - 12 - $29
Barber, Peyton - 41.12% - 5 - $8
Gore, Frank - 3.67% - 6 - $6
Conner, James - 35.84% - 7 - $4

Along with SOS, I tried to do a bit of zagging at the top. I think Kareem Hunt counts as a zag with fewer than 800 owners. 32 teams are using the combo of Gordon and Hunt. Peyton Barber is my pick for the must-own player this year, and so I have him along with over 6,200 other subscribers. James Conner is the fallback. I feel more strongly about RBs being "must-own" as opposed to WR. As for Frank Gore, hoping for goalline snipes from this undying warlock.

WR
Thomas, Michael - 6.64% - 6 - $31
Crowder, Jamison - 4.35% - 4 - $17
Nelson, Jordy - 4.45% - 7 - $13
Ridley, Calvin - 4.19% - 8 - $9
Richardson, Paul - 2.14% - 4 - $9
Miller, Anthony - 8.21% - 5 - $7
Kerley, Jeremy - 0.97% - 11 - $2

The best term for my wide receivers is "exposed." I have less than 10% ownership on every player, and thus I am going to be on the outside looking in when it comes to that position as the Turk comes calling. I just hope I made the right selections and am on the top side of the pack, not below it. If QB doesn't kill me first, how my squad compares to Marquise Goodwin, Keelan Cole, John Ross and/or John Brown is likely to be a deciding factor in how far teams with generally low ownership advance. Coincidentally, 32 teams have the combination of Thomas and Crowder. I doubled up on Washington wideouts with Paul Richardson, but there are no other shared byes. If Calvin Ridley emerges as a force,I will miss him dearly when he and Melvin Gordon and a TE to be named later are off. Looks like a very risky spend on Jordy Nelson with Marquise Goodwin sitting at the same price point. So it goes, stick to the gimmick or there's no reason to have the rule in the first place. Miller and Kerley are slot guys, so they were what made sense given the situations on their teams in a PPR setting.

TE
Kelce, Travis - 6.85% - 12 - $25
Walker, Delanie - 3.37% - 8 - $17
Eifert, Tyler - 12.25% - 9 - $9

I'm happy with what the algorithm spat out here, but the position is leaner than I would normally feel comfortable. However, I felt more confident in these 3 players holding down an average of 1.5 scoring spots compared to what I was being offered with WRs trying to obtain a full 3 scoring spots. My hopes in team design in non-bye weeks were to get 3 scorers from RB, 2-3 scorers from WR, 1-2 scorers from TE. Bye weeks skew those numbers based on who is out. Yes, I note there is big injury risk tolerance coming from my TE picks.

PK
Hopkins, Dustin - 7.55% - 4 - $3
Vinatieri, Adam - 16.65% - 9 - $3

DF
Atlanta Falcons - 6.89% - 8 - $4
San Francisco 49ers - 2.09% - 11 - $4

I have no comment for kickers and defense aside from the very obvious "I chose two instead of three." Apparently I have a lot of hopes for the Washington offense.

Bye week breakdown
4 - Crowder, Richardson, Hopkins
5 - Barber, Miller
6 - Thomas
7 - Conner, Nelson
8 - Gordon, Ridley, Walker, Falcons
9 - Bortles, Eifert, Vinatieri
10 - Flacco
11 - Taylor, Gore, Kerley, 49ers
12 - Hunt, Kelce

That's that. There is a lot of non-popular pickage going on in the above. Weeks 8 and 12 are my worst byes, though weeks 4 and 9 show some risk as well; thankfully 4 is a more lenient cut, and most teams should have multiple players out week 9. If QB doesn't kill me first, how my squad compares to Marquise Goodwin and Keelan Cole is likely to be a deciding factor in how far I advance. GL to all! Hoping for some favorable variance. For the players that I chose. 

 

[Interseptopus]

steelers live scoring app.  try this link  http://calcomatic.com/Home

Right. I enter my team in under Live, then when I go to Home -> Overall Percent I get every entry, not just my own. When I go to Live-> My entry it only shows salaries and positions. 

I guess do I have to search my players individually for their % owned or is there a link on the site that does it for my team

 

[Steeler]

Right. I enter my team in under Live, then when I go to Home -> Overall Percent I get every entry, not just my own. When I go to Live-> My entry it only shows salaries and positions. 

I guess do I have to search my players individually for their % owned or is there a link on the site that does it for my team

Yeah, you have to search for each player on your team at that link.

 

[rustycolts]

Right. I enter my team in under Live, then when I go to Home -> Overall Percent I get every entry, not just my own. When I go to Live-> My entry it only shows salaries and positions. 

I guess do I have to search my players individually for their % owned or is there a link on the site that does it for my team

Gotcha didn't understand your question.  I did my individually of course I am tech impaired so there might be an easier way.

 

[BassNBrew]

I like to have large rosters in this contest, with a mix of studs & cheap value plays, and an emphasis on players who will produce late in the season (see: Allen, Winston, Bell). I try to fill some of the starting slots by throwing money at it and getting studs (who have the biggest weaks), and other slots by throwing numbers at it and letting best ball take care of the rest. Generally risk is good, and distinctiveness is good, though I didn't put a lot of effort into either of those.

My roster, with ownership percentages:

QB: 4 for $22
4.9%    QB    J Winston    TB    $10
19.6%    QB    A Dalton    CIN    $6
16.5%    QB    S Darnold    NYJ    $3
13.3%    QB    J Allen    BUF    $3

RB: 5 for $92
14.6%    RB    T Gurley    LAR    $37
2.2%    RB    L Bell    PIT    $37
41.1%    RB    P Barber    TB    $8
7.5%    RB    B Powell    NYJ    $7
2.9%    RB    C Edmonds    ARI    $3

WR: 8 for $77
9.4%    WR    A Brown    PIT    $37
36.5%    WR    K Cole    JAX    $7
8.2%    WR    A Miller    CHI    $7
21.0%    WR    Jo Brown    BAL    $6
15.1%    WR    M Gallup    DAL    $6
13.9%    WR    C Godwin    TB    $6
24.4%    WR    J Ross    CIN    $5
6.9%    WR    T Smith    NO    $3

TE: 4 for $40
15.4%    TE    R Gronkowski    NE    $26
4.6%    TE    J Cook    OAK    $8
3.5%    TE    R Griffin    HOU    $3
3.1%    TE    N Vannett    SEA    $3

PK: 4 for $8
18.3%    PK    K Fairbairn    HOU    $2
9.0%    PK    C Parkey    CHI    $2
5.3%    PK    Z Gonzalez    CLE    $2
2.3%    PK    J Sanders    MIA    $2

DT: 5 for $11
3.2%    DT    Redskins    WAS    $3
22.2%    DT    Browns    CLE    $2
7.1%    DT    Raiders    OAK    $2
5.6%    DT    Dolphins    MIA    $2
3.4%    DT    Colts    IND    $2

Breaking this down by price range:
Studs ($26+): 4 for $137. Todd Gurley ($37), Le'Veon Bell ($37), Antonio Brown ($37), Rob Gronkowski ($26). I was initially thinking "don't try to be clever here, just take the best guys who have the best shot at huge games & huge seasons." Then with Bell I tried to get clever; I figure that his holdout will depress his ownership but will probably blow over by week 5. That call could make or break me.

Solid starters ($11-$25): 0 for $0. None. Even with the ones who have relatively good prices, I'd rather pay up more for a stud or go with cheaper guys.

Undervalued midrange guys ($7-$10): 6 for $47. Jameis Winston ($10), Jared Cook ($8), Peyton Barber ($8), Bilal Powell ($7), Keelan Cole ($7), Anthony Miller ($7). At QB it seemed worth paying a little more for one guy with some upside, at TE Cook seemed really undervalued as the 2017 Raiders leading receiver, at RB I had to go up to this price range to get guys who have a reasonable shot at startable production each week, and at WR a couple of obvious value plays were slightly more expensive than the others.

Cheap value plays ($2-$6): 20 for $66. See most of my roster, above. Preseason good news + best ball scoring = lots of cheap fpts. Mostly pretty obvious value plays, though apparently the field didn't always agree. These guys give my roster a pretty high floor, and make the studs affordable, and have some upside themselves.

And by position:
RBs are generally overpriced for what they produced, so I wanted to get few of them. 4 potentially startable guys including 2 studs seems like it's about the minimum, and stud RBs are less overpriced than the rest because they do put up huge numbers. One shot at upside in Edmonds - it's not worth handcuffing your RBs because risk is good in this format, but it can be worth taking a shot at the handcuff to a RB that you don't own.

WR+TE is where most of the value plays are, and also some strong stud options.

QB: Normally I like to get a top QB plus 1-2 QB2s, but pricing was much kinder to the cheap options this year (e.g., Dalton+Tannehill+Darnold+Allen for $18) which favors throwing numbers at it. I considered my standard approach with Roethlisberger ($14) + Dalton ($6) + Darnold ($3), or that $18 foursome (though 3 have wk11 byes), before settling on Winston+Dalton+Darnold+Allen.

D+K: The case for getting 5 players at each position: we don't know who will get a pick 6 or kick 4 FGs any given weekend, so each one has basically the same weekly upside for just $2-3, plus a chance of hitting on this year's Zuerlein/Jags D. The case for only 4: 1) with 5, each one is only starting about 3 games for you on average, 2) once you've already picked your favorite 4, the 5th one is either more expensive or less good, 3) with the roster cap at 30 a 5th D/K limits your ability to take more value plays elsewhere. The last of these arguments swayed me down from 5+5 to 5+4, so I just have 9 players at D+K with fairly average spending.

I really like this team and this approach.  You may kick yourself for no DJ or Elliott for Bell.  Brown should pull you thru that though if he's back by the byes.  You'll own everyone at K and D, 

 

[Interseptopus]

Yeah, you have to search for each player on your team at that link.

Booo. what a crappy website.  

Just kidding. This thing rocks. why did I not ever know about this before 

 

[Interseptopus]

Can't believe Thielen is 4.9% Feeling pretty good about that one. Figure no one would like him 

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I went with a light roster of 20.  

1. Derek Carr - $9
   
2. Eli Manning - $7
   
3. Ezekiel Elliott - $35
   
4. Kareem Hunt - $29
   
5. Christian McCaffrey - $26
   
6. Nick Chubb - $10
   
7. James Conner - $4
   
8. Brandin Cooks - $19
   
9. Devin Finches - $16
   
10. Will Fuller - $13
    
11. Mike Williams - $9
    
12. Keenan Cole - $7
    
13. Courtland Sutton - $5
    
14. Rob Gronkowski - $26
    
15. Jordan Reed - $16
    
16. Tyler Eifert - $9
    
17. Zane Gonzalez - $2
    
18. Kaimi Fairbairn - $2
    
19. Bengals - $3
    
20. Browns - $2 
    

 

[jdoggydogg]

Am I going to be the one guy without Royce?  I'm just not liking Denver this year.  The whole thing looks kind of like it's a mess.

No Royce on my teams this year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just noticed that the guy who finished second last year would have finished 1st if he took a 3rd kicker instead of a 3rd QB.  A 3rd defense may have put 3rd place over the top too.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Team breakdowns

18- 4051

19- 1741

20- 1390

21- 1189

22- 1104

23- 1008

24- 895

25- 785

26- 670

27- 562

28- 470

29- 440

30- 810

Once again 18 player teams are overwhelming majority.

plurality

-QG

 

[ZWK]

Here are the lowest owned players (<2%), out of the ones who made my not-that-short list of guys worth considering:

0.62%    WR T Smith CAR $3 - big play threat, possibly Ginn 2.0
0.67%    WR C Williams ARI $3 - might be a starting WR
0.73%    TE G Swaim DAL $3 - a starting TE
0.79%    WR Z Jones BUF $3 - might be a starting WR
0.83%    TE G Everett LAR $5 - a 2nd year breakout candidate
0.85%    WR D Jackson TB $8 - not as sexy an option as Godwin
0.91%    RB K Juszczyk SF $3 - could be the Niners' receiving back
0.97%    WR J Nelson ARI $3 - big play threat
1.01%    QB J Rosen ARI $5 - could be their starting QB soon
1.03%    WR D Chark JAX $3 - big play threat, could be a rookie breakout
1.08%    WR D Pettis SF $4 - could be a rookie breakout
1.17%    TE T Higbee LAR $4 - a starting TE for now
1.20%    WR T Benjamin LAC $3 - big play threat
1.22%    WR T Gabriel CHI $3 - big play threat
1.32%    WR T Williams DAL $4 - might be a starting WR
1.36%    QB J Allen BUF $3 - could be their starting QB soon
1.48%    WR T Boyd CIN $3 - might be a starting WR
1.73%    WR K Coutee HOU $3 - big play threat
1.98%    RB R Smith DAL $3 - Zeke's handcuff

 

[jdoggydogg]

Now, I get it that people are spending money on TEs because of the 1.5 PPR.

But Jimmy Graham? He might finish with 8 TDs on 40 catches this year.

 

[Interseptopus]

Now, I get it that people are spending money on TEs because of the 1.5 PPR.

But Jimmy Graham? He might finish with 8 TDs on 40 catches this year.

I went with Olsen as one of my elites. 3.49%. Awesome to see that. I'll take it any day. Burton is my #2. Cook #3. Hollister is a flier at #4. Can't believe more people didn't grab Cook either. Bargain for him. 

 

[jdoggydogg]

I went with Olsen as one of my elites. 3.49%. Awesome to see that. I'll take it any day. Burton is my #2. Cook #3. Hollister is a flier at #4. Can't believe more people didn't grab Cook either. Bargain for him. 

I don't have Olsen on my team, but you have to think he'll still get enough targets to outperform his price.

 

[Marauder]

Here are the lowest owned players (<2%), out of the ones who made my not-that-short list of guys worth considering:

0.62%    WR T Smith CAR $3 - big play threat, possibly Ginn 2.0
0.67%    WR C Williams ARI $3 - might be a starting WR
0.73%    TE G Swaim DAL $3 - a starting TE
0.79%    WR Z Jones BUF $3 - might be a starting WR
0.83%    TE G Everett LAR $5 - a 2nd year breakout candidate
0.85%    WR D Jackson TB $8 - not as sexy an option as Godwin
0.91%    RB K Juszczyk SF $3 - could be the Niners' receiving back
0.97%    WR J Nelson ARI $3 - big play threat
1.01%    QB J Rosen ARI $5 - could be their starting QB soon
1.03%    WR D Chark JAX $3 - big play threat, could be a rookie breakout
1.08%    WR D Pettis SF $4 - could be a rookie breakout
1.17%    TE T Higbee LAR $4 - a starting TE for now
1.20%    WR T Benjamin LAC $3 - big play threat
1.22%    WR T Gabriel CHI $3 - big play threat
1.32%    WR T Williams DAL $4 - might be a starting WR
1.36%    QB J Allen BUF $3 - could be their starting QB soon
1.48%    WR T Boyd CIN $3 - might be a starting WR
1.73%    WR K Coutee HOU $3 - big play threat
1.98%    RB R Smith DAL $3 - Zeke's handcuff

I have three of those guys on my team - Everett, Benjamin and Boyd.

 

[ffweasel]

Patrick Mahomes II    $11                                                                            Blake Bortles          $8

Perhaps I went too light here. Hoping for a great season out of Mahomes obviously. Maybe I should have added a 3rd QB and/or a more proven option.       

Todd Gurley           $37                                                                                                  David Johnson         $34                                                                                                 Christian McCaffrey   $26                                                                                     Peyton Barber          $8                                                                             James Conner           $4      

Too heavy on RB? 

Tyreek Hill           $23                                                                                                Will Fuller           $13                                                                                            Anthony Miller         $7                                                                          Keelan Cole            $7                                                                                             Chris Godwin           $6                                                                               John Ross              $5                                                      Antonio Callaway       $3

Really liking Hill this season and also Fuller’s potential with Watson.                                                                               

Rob Gronkowski        $26                                                                   Austin Seferian-Jenkins   $9                                                     Mike Gesicki           $6 

Gronk! Maybe should have found room for Burton in here. 

Daniel Carlson         $3                                            Caleb Sturgis          $3                                           Kaimi Fairbairn        $2 

Baltimore Ravens          $7                                           Cleveland Browns         $2

Ehh.. Not a lot of confidence in this squad. We’ll see.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I went with Olsen as one of my elites. 3.49%. Awesome to see that. I'll take it any day. Burton is my #2. Cook #3. Hollister is a flier at #4. Can't believe more people didn't grab Cook either. Bargain for him. 

Jared Cook?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

What was your last move? Not the thousands of iterations but true last decision?

I changed DEF1 from Houston to Baltimore after reading some less than complimentary content about Watt's presence since 2015 and about Houston's secondary.

This of course means Houston will break all the defensive records this year.

 

[ffweasel]

Oops

 

[jdoggydogg]

Well, between this contest and two other leagues, I sure do own a lot of Kenyan Drake 

 

[Titans_fan]

I never do good in this thing, but it's fun nonetheless.  I was original going to go QB-RB-WR from three different teams, then mix in upside and/or PPR darlings, but shifted to this.  Thoughts?

Rivers - $13 (19% owned)
Winston - $10 (5%)
Flacco - $5 (10.5%)

M. Gordon - $30 (8%)
C. Thompson - $17 (4%)
Kerryon Johnson - $15 (6%)
Ty Montgomery - $12 (<2%)
Barber - $8 (41%)

Keenan - $30 (11%)
Crowder - $17 (4%)
Watkins - $15 (3.5%)
Golladay - $11 (<10%)
Kirk - $7 (<3%)
Godwin - $6 (14%)
John Ross - $5 (24%)

Jordan Reed - $16 (8%)
ASJ - $9 (7%)
Goedert - $4 (14%)

Gano - $5 (1.3%)
Vinatieri - $3 (16%)

Minnesota - $7 (15%)
New Englad - $5 (9%)

Not thrilled with my choices at TE with the 1.5 PPR, but Reed's upside is too hard to ignore and I'm hoping ASJ and Goedert can find some intermittent TD success on differing weeks.  Maybe could have dropped a WR to get another RB, but I'm OK with the numbers at those positions.

My only real BYE week issues are week 4 (Thompson, Crowder, Reed, Gano) and 9 (Kirk, Ross, Goedert, Vinatieri) as far as raw numbers go.  Week 8 could be interesting with the Chargers off, but nobody else on my team is, so I hope I can overcome that hurdle.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Now, I get it that people are spending money on TEs because of the 1.5 PPR.

But Jimmy Graham? He might finish with 8 TDs on 40 catches this year.

There are two Graham narratives:

A: He's slow and only a red zone target now, OR

B: Seattle's QB has never had a productive relationship with a receiver not named Doug Baldwin.

If the more popular narrative (A) turns out to be false, Graham is the only TE in the league other than Kelce who can outperform 16 game Gronk.

 

[Interseptopus]

Jared Cook?

He was a TE1 last year. Had 80 targets. No one in his $ range saw anywhere close to that many targets last year, and his situation has only improved in Oakland. 

 

[jdoggydogg]

There are two Graham narratives:

A: He's slow and only a red zone target now, OR

B: Seattle's QB has never had a productive relationship with a receiver not named Doug Baldwin.

If the more popular narrative (A) turns out to be false, Graham is the only TE in the league other than Kelce who can outperform 16 game Gronk.

I've always been a big Graham fan. But apparently he looked pretty slow on tape last season.

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't have Olsen on my team, but you have to think he'll still get enough targets to outperform his price.

He averages roughly 125 targets in Carolina 2014-2016. Travis Kelce has cracked 120 once. He's younger but I'm just fine with status quo for Olsen to out perform his price. 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I've always been a big Graham fan. But apparently he looked pretty slow on tape last season.

I don't fault you for seeing that way.  I've watched the film.  I think he has a shot at TE1.

 

[jdoggydogg]

He averages roughly 125 targets in Carolina 2014-2016. Travis Kelce has cracked 120 once. He's younger but I'm just fine with status quo for Olsen to out perform his price. 

Kelce is a beast. One has to wonder if his target share will shrink now that KC has more weapons.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Two guys on my team I'm particularly interested in for this contest:

Spencer Ware
Latavius Murray

Yes, they are backups. But I think these two will vulture enough from Hunt and Cook to be relevant in best ball leagues. 

 

[Kruegs]

Long time lurker, first time caller. I have had some limited success in this contest, lasting well into the later weeks each attempt, but never cracking the Top 250. I put a little more time into it this season, and really enjoyed reading the back and forth in this thread. I typically enter a smaller roster, and this season I believe will be my largest yet at 26. I'm looking forward to having a little more leeway if an injury occurs this season, and am excited to see what these guys can do. I'm unsure I have as much uniqueness as I had hoped, but I am optimistic about this squad.

QB - 3 players for $27

Patrick Mahomes II (28.07%) $11 - Week 12

Jameis Winston  (4.86%) $10 - Week 5

Andy Dalton (19.6%) $6 - Week 9

While he's certainly a risk, I viewed Mahomes as a safer "gamble" than some of the other players who could very well substantially exceed their cost. With the weapons he has in KC, it would be hard for him to completely fail, and his upside is tremendous. I didn't expect quite so many people to agree. Winston is a pleasant surprise at ~5% ownership, presumably due to his suspension. If he can continue what he was doing in the preseason, he should be a value after his bye mid-to-late season. Dalton has been in my lineup since the beginning and was never removed. Should be solid production for a fantastic price. While there was nothing earth-shattering in this group, I love the risk/reward potential. I also feel cozy and safe with three QBs in case of injury.

RB - 5 players for $88

Ezekiel Elliott (7.89%) $35 - Week 8

Jordan Howard (8.39%) $25 - Week 5

Royce Freeman (35.08%) $16 - Week 10

Peyton Barber (41.12%) $8 - Week 5

James Conner (35.84%) $4 - Week 7

I had many variations of backs for this group, including a couple where I spent more than $100. I pivoted away from McCaffrey, partly due to the PPR penalty for the position. I felt like I should target backs who are more certain to get goal line carries above a crap ton of receptions. Elliott and Howard should provide consistency at the position. Freeman and Barber are chalk plays that seemed like no-brainers, with their competition putting up weak efforts to win the jobs. Conner is another who has been in the lineup since day one. As it was mentioned earlier in the thread, it's probably a curse that Bell held out, as I much preferred him being a more below-radar injury insurance. Overall, I really like this group. Fading McCaffrey may have been stupid, but I'm hoping I gained some uniqueness from having done it.

WR - 8 players for $76

Stefon Diggs (17.3%) $22 - Week 10

Marquise Goodwin (36.70%) $13 - Week 11

Kenny Stills (13.71%) $11 - Week 11

Keelan Cole (36.48%) $7 - Week 9

Michael Gallup (15.09%) $6 - Week 8

Chris Godwin (13.86%) $6 - Week 5

Geronimo Allison (8.85%) $6 - Week 7

John Ross (24.43%) $5 - Week 9

Whew. LOTS of chalk here, though I can't say I'm surprised. This is the first year where I've taken upside/quantity over a smaller number of high floor/quality, as injuries have really hurt me at this position in the past. I'll admit I have been envious of entries with cheaper guys here that produce well, and if ya can't beat 'em... I think Diggs will be the best Minnesota receiver this season, and he was cheaper than Thielen. Now knowing ownership percentages, Thielen may have been the better play. I really wanted to work Jarvis Landry into this group, but his week 11 bye was too much with my stubborn insistence to include both Goodwin and Stills, each of whom should return nicely on their price tags. Gallup, Godwin and Allison have been staples of the million iterations of this entry. Gallup has a chance to shine with the lack of WR depth in Dallas, Godwin looks to be a future star who will get a real chance to be featured, and Allison is the #3 WR of an Aaron Rodgers offense with two injury-prone WRs ahead of him. Ross has been in and out of my lineup, but if he can stay healthy, he should be in line for a few big weeks, which is really all I hope for a $5 guy. If these guys would be considerate enough to spread out their good performances, this group should be strong enough to sustain the entry.

TE - 4 players for $37

Trey Burton (25.58%) $14 - Week 5

Jack Doyle (6.83%) $14 - Week 9

Mike Gesicki (8.52%) $6 - Week 11

Nick Vannett (3.06%) $3 - Week 7

I've probably had the greatest fluctuation in this group, ranging from 2 of the "elite" guys with a couple of cheaper ones, to a couple more mid-range than the list above. I think Burton will be a solid weekly play with tremendous upside, and the same could probably be said for Doyle, even with the Ebron split. Gesicki is an extremely talented athlete that should be a key red zone target at worst, and at best a consistent target. Vannett is a cheap dart. If Burton emerges as a top 5 type, this group should be well above average.

K - 3 players for $10

Wil Lutz (12.57%) $5 - Week 6

Adam Vinatieri (16.65%) $3 - Week 9

Kaimi Fairbairn (18.33%) $2 - Week 10

They're kickers who have jobs and dfferent bye weeks.

DST - 3 for $12

Chicago Bears (26.26%) $5 - Week 5

Pittsburgh Steelers (7.87%) $5 - Week 7

Cleveland Browns (22.17%) $2 - Week 11

As many here have said, I liked the Bears even before the Mack trade, so this was an easy choice. Steelers have a nice pass rush and Browns are chalk.

Best of luck to all of you this season!

 

[Interseptopus]

Kelce is a beast. One has to wonder if his target share will shrink now that KC has more weapons.

And Alex Smith is gone. Alex Smith would often look to him not only because the offense catered to a TE. I really think Olsen is Kelce-light at his price. I have 4 TEs, and my TE2 and TE3 are many people's TE 1 and 2 so if he sucks then I at least have a backup plan. I am kind of hoping one of my other TEs does well enough to creep into flex territory some weeks, so striking out on Olsen would be a bummer. A lot of my bigger market guys were very low percentile owned (Barkley, Cook, Thielen, Olsen). I will be posting later, but I'm happy to see I have a lot of high % players and a lot of my higher $ players are low %. If I picked the right guys I could go far with that combo. 
 

 

[jdoggydogg]

And Alex Smith is gone. Alex Smith would often look to him not only because the offense catered to a TE. I really think Olsen is Kelce-light at his price. I have 4 TEs, and my TE2 and TE3 are many people's TE 1 and 2 so if he sucks then I at least have a backup plan. I am kind of hoping one of my other TEs does well enough to creep into flex territory some weeks, so striking out on Olsen would be a bummer. A lot of my bigger market guys were very low percentile owned (Barkley, Cook, Thielen, Olsen). I will be posting later, but I'm happy to see I have a lot of high % players and a lot of my higher $ players are low %. If I picked the right guys I could go far with that combo. 

I like my team, but now I'm already second-guessing how much I spent on TE and that I should have spent more.

 

[dbc925]

Thanks Rusty!  Appreciate it!

All the rosters were loaded into calcomatic.com this morning - let me know if you see any issues with your roster.  Also, calcomatic.com is currently showing scores from pre-season but I'll get that fixed before the game tonight - I can't do it from work.

Kicked in ten bucks.  Hoping it breaks down to 60 cents/week (although if past years are any indication, it will be over a buck a week).

 

[Interseptopus]

QB - Jared Goff - LAR/12 - $11 15.30%

QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10 4.86%

QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $3 16.46%

Goff and Winston have the ability to throw for 30 TDs. Well, Winston does for sure, was 2 short in 2016. I think both of these guys have top potential at bargain prices. Darnold is a cheap #3

RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28 11.52%

RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/10 - $27 7.34%

RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26 28.4%

RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8  41.12%

RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4 35.84%

Like this group a lot. 4 starters and Conner who could end up being a bargain. I went big here, and it looks like I have a couple guys at the top that few have. even at 0.5 PPR I feel like these top 3 guys have more value than other areas, especially with good value lower at WR

WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/10 - $25 4.94%

WR - Corey Davis - TEN/8 - $15 9.35%

WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13 38.70%

WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9 13.28%

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6 13.86%

WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5 24.43%

Thielen is over looked by many in favor of Diggs, but he gets the targets (and is healthier). I see him very underrated as he was 9th in targets last year. The rest many seem to have so I don’t need to justify them. I’m surprised more didn’t have Corey Davis but I think it’s because Goodwin was as good of value and cheaper (and maybe less risk). I wanted both. I think I've got 1 top dog, 2 good upside guys, 3 longer shots. I can live with that. Especially because Godwin and Lockett are going to be on the money winners' teams this year! 

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/4 - $20 3.49%

TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14 25.58%

TE - Jared Cook - OAK/7 - $8 7.34%

TE - Jacob Hollister - NE/11 - $3 0.62%

I love this group. I'm not at all concerned about DJ Moore. Olsen gets consistent targets, more than Kelce for less money. too many people shying away due to age, but that's fine. If he fails I have awesome depth. Burton is in line for big targets too. great te2. Cook is one I can't believe is so low. Oakland basically has no slot guy, at least a dependable one. a year ago Cook finished as the te12 with 80 something targets. I don't see those going down. Hollister is a big potential grab. People are sleeping on gronks handcuff for some reason. NE has 3 healthy WRs, and a TE very much in the same mold and skillset of Hernandez, yet no one is talking about him. There are worse areas for me to blow $3 IMO

PK - Adam Vinatieri - IND/9 - $3 16.65%

PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2 18.33%

2 guys with jobs, one who should keep it all year for sure.

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5 26.26%

TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/7 - $5 7.87%

Steelers had a lot of sacks and INTs last year, and I see no reason why they can’t reproduce. Chicago for obvious reasons, that pass rush

Overall I'm satisfied with my team. it has some warts as many do but overall I think has big potential. if everything goes right then I can see myself going far. which probably won’t happen, but at least it was fun!! Worth the 30 bucks or whatever it was to be a subscriber. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

He was a TE1 last year. Had 80 targets. No one in his $ range saw anywhere close to that many targets last year, and his situation has only improved in Oakland. 

Blech. I couldn't possibly be less of a fan.  I documented my incredulity about the hyping of the guy when he went to GB on some thread around here a couple of years ago.  He wasn't actually a TE1 last year -- 54 catches for 688 yards and 2 TDs put him squarely in the top-half of TE2 range, which I guess if fine as far as that goes.  But he's got no big-game upside.  He drops the ball, runs horrible routes at (a lot of) times, and is remarkably unable to go up and get the ball in traffic given his body.  And last year was his best year in his 9 year career.  I got to watch him up close and personal for years at Tennessee.  He is just not good.  He looks like he should be awesome.  But he isn't.  He thinks he is (when he announced that he should be franchised by the Titans as a WR, it was one of the more absurd things I've ever seen in the NFL, and that's saying something).  But he isn't.  We have 9 years of data now that shows exactly what he is, IMO.

Unto each his own, obviously, but I think he was overpriced at $8.  For $2 or even $3 I could squint and see it.  But that's why there are thousands of different rosters in this competition every year.  Give me Hooper for that $8.  He has the dropsies and can't run routes at (a lot of) times too.  But he's on the right side of 30 and is still theoretically improving.

 

[Interseptopus]

Blech. I couldn't possibly be less of a fan.  I documented my incredulity about the hyping of the guy when he went to GB on some thread around here a couple of years ago.  He wasn't actually a TE1 last year -- 54 catches for 688 yards and 2 TDs put him squarely in the top-half of TE2 range, which I guess if fine as far as that goes.  But he's got no big-game upside.  He drops the ball, runs horrible routes at (a lot of) times, and is remarkably unable to go up and get the ball in traffic given his body.  And last year was his best year in his 9 year career.  I got to watch him up close and personal for years at Tennessee.  He is just not good.  He looks like he should be awesome.  But he isn't.  He thinks he is (when he announced that he should be franchised by the Titans as a WR, it was one of the more absurd things I've ever seen in the NFL, and that's saying something).  But he isn't.  We have 9 years of data now that shows exactly what he is, IMO.

Unto each his own, obviously, but I think he was overpriced at $8.  For $2 or even $3 I could squint and see it.  But that's why there are thousands of different rosters in this competition every year.  Give me Hooper for that $8.  He has the dropsies and can't run routes at (a lot of) times too.  But he's on the right side of 30 and is still theoretically improving.

He finished TE12 in my PPR league  

ETA: Hooper will be lucky to have as many targets as Cook has receptions this year 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

He finished TE12 in my PPR league  

ETA: Hooper will be lucky to have as many targets as Cook has receptions this year 

I'll take that bet.  $20?  Hooper may drop a ton, but he'll have space underneath to operate and he's still in his growth years.  Cook is going to drop his fair share too, and is on the wrong side of 30 to suddenly be good.  Plus, for all his issues last year and only starting 8 games, Hooper caught 49 -- a whopping 5 less than Cook.

Cook's (other) big problem is the career-long inability to score TDs.  He averages 2 per year.

 

[dbc925]

Added some percentages to my earlier thoughts.  I have 8 of the top 13 owned players.  I can't like that, so I guess that my strategy is hope - hope that my lower-owned guys put up outstanding point totals.  So in that regard, nothing has changed from previous years:

QB - Alex Smith - WAS/4 - $12   10.05%
QB - Marcus Mariota - TEN/8 - $11    3.8%
QB - Mitchell Trubisky - CHI/5 - $7    8.92%

I locked in on Smith and Mariota early, as I like their combined schedules.  I vacillated between several of the $7-11 QBs as my third before settling for Trubisky and spending the additional four bucks on a cheap receiver.  Fairly happy with the lower percentages on Mariota and Trubisky - Especially Trubisky, who had a lot of pre-deadline talk.

RB - David Johnson - ARI/9 - $34    12.4%
RB - Melvin Gordon - LAC/8 - $30    7.96%
RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16    35.08%
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8    41.12%
RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4    35.84%

Two studs, and Freeman being named the starter out of the box only helps my cause.   Carrying only 5 guys is a risk as LB could return to PIT at any time, but I decided he was worth the risk, having four other starters (no, I don't see RoJo as a factor this year in TB.   Freeman, Barber, and Conner.  Wow.  I'm going to have to rely on my studs to get my points at RB.

WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/11 - $19    10.44%
WR - Keelan Cole - JAX/9 - $7    36.48%
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6    21.05%
WR - Geronimo Allison - GB/7 - $6    8.85%
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5    24.43%
WR - Taywan Taylor - TEN/8 - $4    4.82%
WR - Terrance Williams - DAL/8 - $4   1.32%

Bargain basement hunting here.  For the longest time, I wanted Nuk, but chose volume at WR and TE instead.  So I think I have three pretty good values in Landry, Cole and Brown.  I like Allison to supplant Cobb in a high-powered offense.  The other three guys are cheap WRs with upside.  Some of the high percentages here weren't a surprise at all.  Cole, Ross, Brown - phenomenal values.  Surprised Allison wasn't owned by more.  The last two guys are textbook definitions of darts.  Go Terrance!

TE - Travis Kelce - KC/12 - $25    6.85
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/4 - $20    3.49%
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $4    13.95%
TE - Blake Jarwin - DAL/8 - $3    1.34%
TE - Nick Vannett - SEA/7 - $3    3.06%

Yes, five TEs.  I don't think it's insane with two flex and 1.5 ppr.  Kelce and Olson will probably count for me every week, and I have three guys for ten bucks that have a good chance of being my FLEX 2.  Wanted to get two top TEs, and figured that Gronk/Graham would be the two most often taken high end guys.  Happy with the low percentages on everyone here. 

PK - Mason Crosby - GB/7 - $4    13.17%
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4    16.93%
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3    13.67%

I just wanted three guys I'm fairly certain will last through the season.  The $2 guys make me nervous.  Apparently, me and everyone else.  Crazy numbers here.

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/5 - $5    26.26%
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/8 - $4    5.07%
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2    22.17%

I was on the fence with the Bears before the Mack trade, and that swung me.  The Titans have a huge upside with a bunch of new additions, and the Browns are probably the best $2 defense that I've seen in this contest.  Again, I'm not the only one.  26 and 22 percent.  Nuts!



Good luck all, and I look forward to reading your strategies with your rosters!

 

[Elevencents]

Where are you guys getting %’s? Not liking what I’m seeing - I prob have the highest owned team imaginable!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/contest_querier_form.php

So I've bookmarked this link, but how do you navigate to this?  I don't see it in the menu path...?

 

[Interseptopus]

Where are you guys getting %’s? Not liking what I’m seeing - I prob have the highest owned team imaginable!

Calcomatic.com under Home and Overall Percentage

 

[dbc925]

So I've bookmarked this link, but how do you navigate to this?  I don't see it in the menu path...?

 Go to thr standings, and there's a link on there. 

 

[ZWK]

The average roster has:

2.95 QBs for $31.01 with 12.7% avg ownership
5.44 RBs for $86.17 with 16.7% avg ownership
6.37 WRs for $83.46 with 12.8% avg ownership
2.54 TEs for $29.65 with 10.5% avg ownership
2.28 DTs for $11.33 with 10.4% avg ownership
2.27 PKs for $8.22 with 11.2% avg ownership
21.84 players for $249.84 with 13.1% avg ownership

(Calculated from the ownership numbers and the prices)

 

[BassNBrew]

Where are you guys getting %’s? Not liking what I’m seeing - I prob have the highest owned team imaginable!

That's actually a good thing IMO.  Finished 6th or 7th one year with a team of all the highest owned guys.  Thought I would get killed in the finals but my defense went off and I had most everyone else covered to an extent.  With only 250 in the finals, you'll still have a pretty unique team even if all yours players are 80% owned.  People compare this to dfs tournies, but you can win small tournies playing them like a cash game or chalk.  You've got to get to the finals to have a shot and the process of narrowing it down from 15000 to 250 (1.6%) definitely favors not being unique.

 

[sooted72]

QB - Patrick Mahomes II - KC/12 - $11
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6

like your style

 

[Steeler]

calcomatic.com is ready to go!  It is no longer in preseason mode

Couple reminders:

1. This is not official - final results are posted at FBG usually on Tuesday morning.  
   
2. The scoring for the contest changed a bit from last year and I think I captured all of those changes but there may be some discrepancies early in the season until everything can be ironed out.
   
3. There are still 10 players who I have not been able to setup to score points at calcomatic because they haven't accumulated any stats during the preseason.  Not to get too technical, but I have to associate the FBG ID for each player with the NFL ID for each player and the easiest way for me to do that is after they accumulate stats and are in my database with the NFL ID.  Anyway, this will resolve it self as these players play in the regular season.
   

Thanks to everyone who already donated!!  If you haven't donated yet, what are you waiting for  

 

[sooted72]

Patrick Mahomes II    $11      0.00                                                                          bye                             
Jameis Winston        $10      0.00                         bye                                                                              
Andy Dalton            $6      0.00                                                     bye                                                  

made sure to have mahomes as i just feel like hes got insane high upside.  love dalton this year and crablegs is just too cheap (for obvious reasons).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leonard Fournette     $29      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
Christian McCaffrey   $26      0.00                  bye                                                                                     
Lamar Miller          $18      0.00                                                            bye                                           
Marshawn Lynch        $15      0.00                                       bye                                                                
Peyton Barber          $8      0.00                         bye                                                                              

grabbed 2 studs and 3 cheaper starters as filler.  since its not 1ppr for rbs im less inclined to take pass catching backs.  like others cmc makes me super iffy but its more a play of the early bye than a love for him.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marquise Goodwin      $13      0.00                                                                   bye                                    
Tyler Lockett          $9      0.00                                       bye                                                                
Paul Richardson        $9      0.00                  bye                                                                                     
Tyrell Williams        $8      0.00                                              bye                                                         
Keelan Cole            $7      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
Chris Godwin           $6      0.00                         bye                                                                              
John Ross              $5      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
Courtland Sutton       $5      0.00                                                            bye                                           
TreQuan Smith          $3      0.00                                bye            

i hate that i let the groupthink on here talk me into goodwin.  though he is a great value ofc.  you only need 2 wr scores this year so i think paying up for goodwin actually probably was a good idea.  up until just a couple days ago i had 11 wrs none higher than $9.  but i guess this is better.

                                                          
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jack Doyle            $14      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
O.J. Howard           $11      0.00                         bye                                                                              
Eric Ebron            $11      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
Cameron Brate         $11      0.00                         bye                                                                              
Ryan Griffin           $3      0.00                                                            bye                                           

wanted to go 1 or 2 te couplings this year.  couldnt decide between eifert/kroft, doyle/ebron, reed/davis or howard/brate.  the one off tes i loved this year were cook, burton and asj but decided on this approach.  had gronk for a bit up until like a week ago.  decided too risky.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kaimi Fairbairn        $2      0.00                                                            bye                                           
Aldrick Rosas          $2      0.00                                                     bye                                                  
Cody Parkey            $2      0.00                         bye                                                                              
Oakland Raiders        $2      0.00                                       bye                                                                
Miami Dolphins         $2      0.00                                                                   bye                                    
Cleveland Browns       $2      0.00                                                                                                       

i never think too much about k/dst.  just take 3 each of the cheapest and try to stagger the bye weeks as much as possible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

really dont like this team which means im making a deep run. 

 

[JoeSteeler]

calcomatic.com is ready to go!  It is no longer in preseason mode

Couple reminders:

1. This is not official - final results are posted at FBG usually on Tuesday morning.  
   
2. The scoring for the contest changed a bit from last year and I think I captured all of those changes but there may be some discrepancies early in the season until everything can be ironed out.
   
3. There are still 10 players who I have not been able to setup to score points at calcomatic because they haven't accumulated any stats during the preseason.  Not to get too technical, but I have to associate the FBG ID for each player with the NFL ID for each player and the easiest way for me to do that is after they accumulate stats and are in my database with the NFL ID.  Anyway, this will resolve it self as these players play in the regular season.
   

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[HairySasquatch]

2 nights ago I switched out McCaffrey for Penny and spent the extra $ in other areas.  No one was talking about Penny, so I decided to swim up steam on this one.  Penny is only on 229 other teams for 1.52 %.  

My other RB's are Gordon, Fournette, Royce, Barber, and Conner.  I figured that Gordon, Fournette, and Royce would carry most of the load for the season and Barber and Conner would be nice Penny insurance until he picks up more of the share in carries with Carson.  It's an expensive risk (and money probably could have been better spent at a different position), but I'm hoping to catch lightning in the bottle for the second half of the season.