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Kershaw was a bit questionable, but Joe Kelly seemed his bigger mistake. Leaving Kelly out there for a second inning while he had Jansen in the bullpen, even when Kelly started pooping the bed, was an odd decision, to say the least.
As an Indians fan, I was laughing all night. My day immediately brightened seeing them getting beat like a rented mule.
I feel your pain, GB. Burned way too many times to have confidence. To this day, I still do not watch the game when the Braves are in the field. I flip back when they're batting. I do watch sometimes depending on score and who is pitching but that's been my routine for years. Sad.
Think you're right. Pennant winner with best regular season record regardless if wild-card or not, I think.
Definitely. Once you get to extra innings, you no longer have save situations for the home team. Get your best available pitchers in the game. Jansen has historically been brought into the game in those situations.
Cherry picking. But mainly, Kershaw isn't what he was in his mid 20s, but Roberts keeps riding him like he is. Yes, he does well sometimes, but it never makes sense to me to take a starting pitcher, one of the three you need to ride throughout to win the series, mess up their schedule, have them prepared differently than they normally do.
The Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 14-2, although there were other issues behind the scenes.
The Dodgers are massively talented. Roberts isn't getting more out of them than another capable manager wouldn't. But, he doesn't push the right buttons in the post season clearly. It's painfully obvious to me, at least (obvious caveat that I'm an amateur observer so that's not worth too much).
As a Yankees fan, definitely rooting for the Rays. I don’t think I’d could write a better plan to win the WS than the Astros and Dodgers losing. Atlanta never scared me that much.
Looking at postseason stats for any player is basically cherry-picking, though. They'd need to have 10+ years in MLB and an inordinate number of postseason appearances to generate a decent sample size to begin with, and any player who does so is not going to be anything like the same player over those 10+ years anyway. Then you start looking at starter vs reliever, home vs road, etc. and it's just a jumbled mess of conflicting info. IMO the most important data by far was the fact that he'd struck out the difficult-to-strike-out Adam Eaton on three pitches 15 minutes earlier to get his team out of a jam in the 7th. He looked like a world-beater.
Don't understand why it took this long. He needed to go. And as bad as I thought he was, I hated his base coaches more. I love the Astros 3rd base coach because his philosophy is "Even if the throw will beat the runner, he's still got to throw a strike." So he's very aggressive sending people. Some get thrown out, but that's fine. More guys score than not. Then I watch the Phillies and they're holding runners on third down by one when no one can hit the ball. So frustrating. Take a chance. Make the outfielder make a play.
That's kind of what most of these analytics based decisions are, though. Which competing small sample sized set of results do I want to make this decision based on?
there are plenty of Yankee fans here but nowhere near more than Rays fans. The Rays TV ratings are really good. It’s hard to get people to that barn.
What do you think postseason stats are to begin with?
I don't disagree, but I'm also not looking at any particular stat in the post season in Kershaw's history. But, there is nothing in his post season history that over a period of time show's that Kershaw is the guy you want to be your salvation. My original critique was that someone as analytics based as the Dodgers should be smarter than to rely on Kershaw in extended post season use based on his historical post season data in total (under .500, career post season ERA `2 runs higher than career average, and that includes numbers from his prime).Looking at postseason stats for any player is basically cherry-picking, though. They'd need to have 10+ years in MLB and an inordinate number of postseason appearances to generate a decent sample size to begin with, and any player who does so is not going to be anything like the same player over those 10+ years anyway. Then you start looking at starter vs reliever, home vs road, etc. and it's just a jumbled mess of conflicting info. IMO the most important data by far was the fact that he'd struck out the difficult-to-strike-out Adam Eaton on three pitches 15 minutes earlier to get his team out of a jam in the 7th. He looked like a world-beater.
I do think Roberts still should have gone batter by batter for the 8th, using a righty for Rendon and then Kolarek for Soto. Those were clearly the two biggest remaining outs and the best time to empty the chamber. But it wasn't an indefensible decision. Roberts made more than one decision last night worse than trusting Kershaw there.
Alsdo the pitch to Rendon was a good one too- a breaking ball down and out of the zone. An MVP-caliber hitter just went down and pulled it into the first row. That was a "just gotta tip your hat" moment. The pitch to Soto was bad and Kolarek definitely should've been in the game once Rendon made in a one-run game, but
Love the evolution of that.
Thanks - was curious since TB was home to the Yanks training camp pre-Rays for such a long time. In Denver there were lots of old school Yankee fans because the Denver Bears were the Yankee AAA farm team in late 50's early 60's - in the games that the Rockies played the Yankees you had the typical NY transplants + the local Denver fans that made it like a home game for the Yankees.
Definitely a ton of Yanks fans here for that reason and also they all ####ing move here to die.
I don't think an analytical team is going to be looking at his postseason W/L record and ERA. But whatever info they may have had at their disposal, the most important data by far at that juncture for any reasonable personwas him demolishing Adam Eaton on three pitches with two men on base to end the 7th a couple minutes earlier. What he did against, say, the Cardinals in the 2013 postseason isn't gonna carry a lot of relative weight compared to that data point.
I know Roberts has done well with this team, but from an outsider looking in, I never understood him and pitchers. I mean, I'm not sure how Rich Hill didn't punch him in the face a couple of times.
I agree with this assessment. He had a pile of options. 2 run lead going into the 8th with Rendon and Soto due up. If you're not going to use Jansen there, then why bother? They kind of announced the formula was Kershaw to Jansen, but why and why not in the 8th? Managers manage to inning, not game situation IMO. Use your best reliever against their best hitters seems logical to me. Kershaw got a lefty out. You still had 2 more lefties, including a guy who got Soto out 3x in the series if something blew up. Instead, Roberts uses a lesser Kershaw to give it up again and winds up not using Jansen with a lead or the game on the line.
I've heard this discussed by other former players and I thought, "If this is true, MLB might be the dumbest people on the planet." Why would you change the ball during the playoffs?
The mistake was made by putting Kershaw in, not when to take him out. I'm advocating for the Dodgers to not use him as a reliever in the post season at all.
I agree that I do not put the blame on Kershaw, but blame Roberts for the decision.
Kershaw faced three batters. 1 K and 2 hrs. Watching all season this was not an isolated event. He has often had terrible first innings this season, often an out then giving up HRs. His hitters picked him up as the game wore on. Once he struck out Eaton his night should have been done with Roberts counting his lucky stars. esp with the pitchers avail in the pen. With a day off either way, unload the pen and win the game.It's pretty funny that a Nats fan is the one defending Kershaw, but ... you guys saw the Eaton AB with two men on base in the 7th, right? Eaton has a 16.2% K rate on the season, good for 16th lowest in the NL, and Kershaw made him look like my 5 year old when he asks me to throw him "real" pitches instead of underhand soft tosses. After watching that I would have had a hard time pulling him for the 8th too.
And the Rendon HR was a golf shot on a ball below the zone with movement. It's not like he served up a BP fastball middle-middle. He saved that one for Soto
I agree with the bolded. Just saying I understand the thinking, and don't consider it an egregious error. Sending Kelly out for the 10th was an egregious error.
Agree on Kelly. I do think Kersh for the 8th was an egregious error.....
....But may concede that this could be more accurate.
