TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Probably one of my favorite teams that has been posted yet. The roster is strong across all positions, bye weeks are relatively balanced. Nice.
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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
Stray Doug
Footballguy
I feel like TheWinz has the answer to this already:
Ballpark, what's the expected avg. weekly score of two $3 Ds vs. three $3 Ds? Basically, how much additional points is that 3rd D giving me on average?
Ballpark, what's the expected avg. weekly score of two $3 Ds vs. three $3 Ds? Basically, how much additional points is that 3rd D giving me on average?
I have that data at home, but am a night worker. I will try to post the numbers when I get home.
bamabuddha
Footballguy
Want my extra $100 baby for the win!
QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - DAndre Swift - DET/6 - $29
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/14 - $9
RB - Brian Robinson - WAS/14 - $7
RB - Eno Benjamin - ARI/13 - $6
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - Allen Lazard - GB/14 - $12
WR - Rondale Moore - ARI/13 - $11
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $21
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/13 - $15
TE - Gerald Everett - LAC/8 - $8
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - DAndre Swift - DET/6 - $29
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/14 - $9
RB - Brian Robinson - WAS/14 - $7
RB - Eno Benjamin - ARI/13 - $6
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - Allen Lazard - GB/14 - $12
WR - Rondale Moore - ARI/13 - $11
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $21
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/13 - $15
TE - Gerald Everett - LAC/8 - $8
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
bamabuddha
Footballguy
Btw that was pre Robinson and pre Mack released news so it will change as I will put piece in but gots to find $3
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Has it been confirmed that last year's $100 bonus for posting final roster before deadline carries over to this year?
Dacomish
Footballguy
Final Lineup provided no last minute cuts/shenanigans before Monday $100 bonus cutoff:
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $19
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
QB - Marcus Mariota - ATL/14 - $5
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/10 - $30
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - A.J. Dillon - GB/14 - $20
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $13
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Cedrick Wilson - MIA/11 - $3
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/11 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3
Total value: 250
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $19
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
QB - Marcus Mariota - ATL/14 - $5
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/10 - $30
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - A.J. Dillon - GB/14 - $20
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/7 - $3
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/11 - $13
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Cedrick Wilson - MIA/11 - $3
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/11 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3
Total value: 250
Dacomish
Footballguy
Thanks for including us in this article @Joe Bryant!Boom. Thanks to everyone for the insights. And thanks to @Clayton Gray for putting this together.
Subscriber Contest Strategy
www.footballguys.com
It's Wednesday morning. No changes for the next 5 days?
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
It would take some Herculean willpower on my part to not tweak/adjust over those last few days. I'd have to ignore any last minute news/updates/hunches. Don't know if that is possible. I'll do a deep think over the weekend and give it a try, but I have no real confidence that I will be able to resist.It's Wednesday morning. No changes for the next 5 days?
Dacomish
Footballguy
TBH I am slipping as I haven't changed it for a whole 4 days now I think, last change was the Kicker injury shenanigans over the weekend, and with the Robinson news about the same time I made that change too. Unless someone gets cut or injured in the next few days I am happy with this as my entry.It's Wednesday morning. No changes for the next 5 days?
Dacomish
Footballguy
And as I mentioned earlier in the thread....not having that 3rd cheap $2 defense cost me in the finals when I got a whopping 2 points from one of my 2 Def due to poor matchups/performance.
All I needed was like 4 points to have finished in the $$...Not that I'm still bitter about it or anything....
joey
Footballguy
Don’t beat yourself up. Think about the domino effect of finding that $2 on your roster, the players you’d have to have given up, shuffled around, etc and ONE of them likely was the reason you made it as far as you did in a given week. It’s not like you left $2 on the table, right? You used your entire budget to get as far as you did and any change to that doesn’t only just change how you would’ve finished on that fateful weekend late in the season, but EARLIER in the season as well.And as I mentioned earlier in the thread....not having that 3rd cheap $2 defense cost me in the finals when I got a whopping 2 points from one of my 2 Def due to poor matchups/performance.
All I needed was like 4 points to have finished in the $$...Not that I'm still bitter about it or anything....
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
One thing I do as I put together roster options each year is set a range of $$ I want on bye each week... with basic principles of (a) generally front-loading (I went a bit heavier this year due to scaling cutoff %s), and (b) scaling based on number of teams on bye that week. It's not a hard and fast rule, but if my roster falls outside the indicated range for any week, I take a really hard look at whether I might need to make some shifts (and almost always do). Here's what I came up with for this year:
Week 6 - $40-70, target $55 (4 byes, 20% cut)
Week 7 - $40-70, target $55 (4 byes, 20% cut)
Week 8 - $10-40, target $25 (2 byes, 30% cut)
Week 9 - $45-75, target $60 (6 byes, 30% cut)
Week 10 - $10-40, target $25 (4 byes, 30% cut)
Week 11 - $0-30, target $15 (4 byes, 30% cut)
Week 13 - $0-10, target $5 (2 byes, 40% cut)
Week 14 - $0-20, target $10 (6 byes, 40% cut)
Week 6 - $40-70, target $55 (4 byes, 20% cut)
Week 7 - $40-70, target $55 (4 byes, 20% cut)
Week 8 - $10-40, target $25 (2 byes, 30% cut)
Week 9 - $45-75, target $60 (6 byes, 30% cut)
Week 10 - $10-40, target $25 (4 byes, 30% cut)
Week 11 - $0-30, target $15 (4 byes, 30% cut)
Week 13 - $0-10, target $5 (2 byes, 40% cut)
Week 14 - $0-20, target $10 (6 byes, 40% cut)
I'm sorry, but I can't find the specifics on 2 vs 3 cheapies. I do recall posting something in one of the previous year's threads though. There is a link to those threads on page 12 of this thread. If memory serves, there wasn't much difference in 2 vs 3, but the variance was cut way down.
Saint
Footballguy
I know the one year I went 2 vs 3. The kicker pulled a hammy and then the other kicker was on bye and I got cut. After week 8, every point matters so for $9 of comfort on kickers and defenses, I felt was worth it as you know one of those kickers/teams are counting every week.
I have to say though, as far as the 2 vs 3 conversation goes, the 3rd K is WAY more important than the 3rd D.
Probably going to refine this a lot but this was my first stab.
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/7 - $16
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
QB - Justin Fields - CHI/14 - $11
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Michael Pittman - IND/14 - $24
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/13 - $23
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/11 - $20
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/14 - $18
WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/9 - $17
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Pat Freiermuth - PIT/9 - $14
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/6 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/7 - $16
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
QB - Justin Fields - CHI/14 - $11
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Michael Pittman - IND/14 - $24
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/13 - $23
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/11 - $20
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/14 - $18
WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/9 - $17
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Pat Freiermuth - PIT/9 - $14
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/6 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
Saint
Footballguy
I would agree, although I have seen a lot of variability out of defensive scoring. For $3, I would rather have variability on my side from a best ball perspective.
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/10 - $21
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $18
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
WR - Davante Adams - LV/6 - $29
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/11 - $16
WR - Chris Olave - NO/14 - $12
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/8 - $30
TE - Dalton Schultz - DAL/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $18
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
WR - Davante Adams - LV/6 - $29
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/11 - $16
WR - Chris Olave - NO/14 - $12
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/8 - $30
TE - Dalton Schultz - DAL/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
13 days later, 2nd attempt... one of the smallest rosters I've ever seriously considered. Week 9 is scary, but with 6 NFL teams on bye many other contest teams will be short that week as well... not comfortable with it, but there's always someplace you've gotta take a risk. Overall I feel like I've found less sub-$10 cheapies this year that I want to throw a dart at than in years past:
Out
RB Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson, Zack Moss
WR Sammy Watkins, Velus Jones
TE TJ Hockenson, Gerald Everett, Taysom Hill
PK Kaimi Fiarbairn
TD MIN, NYJ, TEN
In
RB Nick Chubb, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert
WR George Pickens
TE Darren Waller
PK Rodrigo Blankenship
TD MIA, ARI
Roster
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/8 - $17
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/14 - $9
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/7 - $36
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $21
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
Out
RB Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson, Zack Moss
WR Sammy Watkins, Velus Jones
TE TJ Hockenson, Gerald Everett, Taysom Hill
PK Kaimi Fiarbairn
TD MIN, NYJ, TEN
In
RB Nick Chubb, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert
WR George Pickens
TE Darren Waller
PK Rodrigo Blankenship
TD MIA, ARI
Roster
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/9 - $24
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/8 - $17
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/14 - $9
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/7 - $36
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $21
TE - George Kittle - SF/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
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H8fulHuck
Footballguy
Total redo @Stray Doug because I don’t want to compete against this lineup.
Biggest knock I can think of is week 9 bye for your top RB, #2 WR and stud TE. Not ideal but many will be short this week.
More on the K and D discussion...
2021
K16 - Graham Gano averaged 8.34 weekly
D16 - Washington Redskins averaged 5.73 weekly
2020
K16 - Ka'imi Fairbairn averaged 8.22 weekly
D16 - New York Giants averaged 5.87 weekly
2019
K16 - Robbie Gould averaged 7.59 weekly
D16 - Buffalo Bills averaged 6.13 weekly
Just wanted to show scoring comparison. For those that didn't know, kickers outscore defenses by a decent margin.
2021
K16 - Graham Gano averaged 8.34 weekly
D16 - Washington Redskins averaged 5.73 weekly
2020
K16 - Ka'imi Fairbairn averaged 8.22 weekly
D16 - New York Giants averaged 5.87 weekly
2019
K16 - Robbie Gould averaged 7.59 weekly
D16 - Buffalo Bills averaged 6.13 weekly
Just wanted to show scoring comparison. For those that didn't know, kickers outscore defenses by a decent margin.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Yeah, and my #5 WR out as well, so basically 7 of my 8 skill position guys will count for that week, assuming they're all even healthy and playing.
I could give up Cooper Kupp to get some more bye week spread at WR, and then have a 9th (or even 10th w/ Watkins) player for skill positions in week 9 (byes in parens)... for example:
1. DJ Moore (13) + DeVonta Smith (7)
2. A Thielen (7) + C Kirk or DK Metcalf (11) + Sammy Watkins (14) or a 3rd D
3. Gabriel Davis (7) + Marquise Brown (13)
4. AJ Brown (7) + Rondale Moore (13) + a 3rd Defense
Of those I like 2 or 4 best, but ultimately probably prefer just rolling with Kupp and praying on week 9. We'll see if anything else changes in the next week... was briefly thinking Shenault might have some value at $3 when I heard he was traded, but seems he's the #4WR at best even in Carolina and unlikely to contribute even in best ball format. Would probably take an injury in practice (or a surprising trade) for someone not currently on the radar to emerge as a value pick at this point.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Are these numbers correct on historical entries? Why is my brain recalling numbers more like 3 or 4 thousand entries? Am I confused?
Yes, you are
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
I like #2 and #1 the most, but trust your gut.
Puppies
Footballguy
This morning I read the "Subscriber Strategy" article that was posted (and for which many of you guys contributed). It's pretty cool reading about the thoughs that have gone through most people's minds, because reading it reminded me of what a lot of things I have been thinking at the same time. This is really a great contest. If anyone here hasn't see the article yet, it's worth taking a few minutes to read it. I've used a combination of different stratetgies that we mentioned, and I have to admit that the contribution posted by Deamon was the most entertaining. It pretty closely described what I go through ever year when I first discover that the Subscriber Contest is finally live. If you missed it, you can see the article here: https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-subscriber-contest-strategy
Entry numbers for the last 10 years...
2021 - 9,767
2020 - 10,207
2019 - 12,586
2018 - 15,115
2017 - 13,484
2016 - 14,884
2015 - 13,665
2014 - 14,303
2013 - 14,398
2012 - 13,318
No idea why Joe would consider under 20K a failure. At this point, over 10K is heading back in the right direction. It's COVID I tell ya!
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
An alternative approach would be to (a) minimize common bye weeks for each position, and (b) as a separate focus topic, consider only the RB/WR/TE portion of your roster, split that into the starters (2RB, 2WR, 1TE) and the flex pool (for FLEX1 and FLEX2 scoring), then make sure that these two groups are spread out evenly. You can consider deliberately front-loading the bye weeks if you like, but then you have to ask yourself if you're swapping player quality for "optimal or "front end loaded" bye week distribution".
As an example, in my current roster (5 RBs, 7 WRs, 3 TEs) the 5 skill position starters have bye weeks of 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 (1 and only 1 each week). The remaining RB/WR/TE skill position flex players (10 total) have byes as follows:
week 6: 1 week 7: 0 week 8: 0 week 9: 2 week 10: 1 week 11: 3 week 12: 0 week 13: 0 week 14: 3
You might think week 11 and week 14 are problematic but (a) I still have 7 flex players available in these "thin flex weeks", (b) the flex byes in week 11 are WR3, WR4 and TE2, but the only "starter bye" I have in week 11 is RB1, so the required scoring for RB1, Flex 1, and Flex 2 is covered by RB3, RB4, RB5, WR5, WR6, WR7 and TE3, and (c) the flex byes in week 14 are RB5, WR5 and TE3, and there are zero "skill position starter byes" that week, so Flex scoring is covered by RB3, RB4, WR3, WR4, WR6, WR7 and TE2.
Would it be "better" if this roster was more front end bye loaded? Maybe...but I'm not sure that rearranging my roster to try to force most of my skill position byes to fall in weeks 6, 7 and 9 is the right way to maximize survivability versus spreading out the byes as much as possible, particularly for the skill positions.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Thanks for this. Top 225 payout. If my math is correct, if we have 7500 entries, there will be 225 remaining entering week 15. If Joe's wish comes true, there will be about 600 players competing in week 15 for 225 payouts.
If we have 7500 entries, there will be 137 left entering week 15
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I don't know where my math error is. I'm using the cuts 10% for 3 weeks, 20% for 4 weeks, 30% for 5 weeks, and 40% for 2 weeks, and rounding down the non-integer survivors after each cut. ?!
Week 1 - start 7500, cut 10% = 6750
Week 2 - start 6750, cut 10% = 6075
Week 3 - start 6075, cut 10% = 5468
Week 4 - start 5468, cut 20% = 4375
Week 5 - start 4375, cut 20% = 3500
Week 6 - start 3500, cut 20% = 2800
Week 7 - start 2800, cut 20% = 2240
Week 8 - start 2240, cut 30% = 1568
Week 9 - start 1568, cut 30% = 1098
Week 10 - start 1098, cut 30% = 769
Week 11 - start 769, cut 30% = 539
Week 12 - start 539, cut 30% = 378
Week 13 - start 378, cut 40% = 227
Week 14 - start 227, cut 40% = 137
Did I screw up?
Stray Doug
Footballguy
I get same result as you.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Yes, ultimately I do look at both the $$ on bye and # of players on bye each week, but for simplicity I usually just focus on the $$ first. Having three cheapies I'm throwing a dart at on bye is usually far less important than having a stud on bye. And even then it's usually a matter of looking at your worst bye week overall and just saying "can I live with this?" If so, then you can live with the other weeks as well.
And yeah, I spend 95% of my time just looking at the RB/WR/TE combos for my roster. I usually have sometimes like 1-3 different QB combos to try and build around... this year I've pretty much locked in on 1 from the get-go, so that makes things a bit simpler (mercifully). I slot in the TDs and PKs at the end based upon a combo of expected performance, job security/health, and avoid amplifying the bye week pain points of the rest of my roster.
Even if the cutline was static (25% per week), I certainly consider the bye week as one of 3 factors (price, "expected performance", and bye week). All else being equal, I consider the early bye week preferable... generally the cutline increases as the season progresses, and to me it's just as important to survive week 14 as it is to survive week 6... if I'm not playing for the big payout at the end, I don't really care how far I made it before getting cut. Since it's usually easier to survive the earlier weeks, I prefer taking the earlier byes (within reason).
Puppies
Footballguy
You didn't screw up. There would be 137 teams advancing to week 15 if we started out with 7,500 teams.
For simplicity, I put all of this in a spreadsheet and so I can calculate the results instantly for different starting numbers. But accept that this may yield a final result that is off by one or two teams due to not always rounding up as Joe specified in the rules (Excel rounds either up or down, rather than always up).
The result according to the spreadsheet is 136 teams advancing to week 15 if we start wtih 7,500 teams.
Using this method, here are the number of teams advancing to week 15 based on the various numbers of total teams at the start of the contest....
Start with 25,000 teams; 452 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 24,000 teams; 434 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 23,000 teams; 416 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 22,000 teams; 397 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 21,000 teams; 379 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 20,000 teams; 361 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 19,000 teams; 343 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 18,000 teams, 325 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 17,000 teams, 305 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 16,000 teams, 289 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 15,000 teams, 271 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 14,000 teams, 253 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 13,000 teams, 235 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 12,000 teams, 217 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 11,000 teams, 199 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 10,000 teams, 181 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 9,000 teams, 163 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 8,000 teams, 145 teams would advance to week 15
Start with 7,000 teams, 126 teams would advance to week 15
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My guess is we will have roughly 181 teams advancing. I'd wager it's within 20 of that.
I have blown up my roster so many times, I really don't remember where I started. What I do remember is:
- At QB, I have stuck with Cousins and Carr throughout, and have considered Pickett as a 3rd
- At RB, I've gravitated towards Saquon, and want Dameon as my RB4, but expect big things and willing to spend less on other spots
- At WR, I've had everything from 4 to 11 players; I can't decide
- At TE, I am very much like WR with no idea what to do
- At K, I am honing in on the safest $3 options
- At D, I have considered carrying only 2 $3 options, but will likely go for 3
- At QB, I have stuck with Cousins and Carr throughout, and have considered Pickett as a 3rd
- At RB, I've gravitated towards Saquon, and want Dameon as my RB4, but expect big things and willing to spend less on other spots
- At WR, I've had everything from 4 to 11 players; I can't decide
- At TE, I am very much like WR with no idea what to do
- At K, I am honing in on the safest $3 options
- At D, I have considered carrying only 2 $3 options, but will likely go for 3
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The mistake was mine....I was ignoring the week 14 cutdown from 227 to 137. I do get slight difference (225 and 135 versus 227 and 137)...one of us is not rounding non-integer values correctly.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I mostly agree, but in practice I find that I have to choose players I'm not as excited about if I tried to strictly enforce the front-end loading....so I choose from more desireable players until I have a bye week outlook that I'm confident in.
A little history on expensive D's...
2021 - The top D in 2020 was PIT, and priced at $7 for 2021. They finished D21 and were a massive waste of money. You could not have chosen multiple D's with differing byes and scored less, no matter how bad they were. The bottom 3 D's were LV, DET, and JAC, who combined to score 101 points and cost $6 total. PIT cost $7 and scored 83. And of course, PIT was more common than all 3 of the teams who teamed up to outscore them.
2020 - The top D in 2019 was CHI, and priced at $5 for 2020. They finished D20 and were a massive waste of money. Half the league was cheaper and outscored them.
2019 - The top D in 2018 was CHI, and priced at $10 for 2019. They finished D25 and were a massive waste of money. There were over 300 combinations of D's $10 and under, and every one of them outscored CHI. Let me repeat that - CHI was outscored by every possible combo $10 and under. If there ever was a Gus Edwards of D's, CHI was it.
2018 - The top D in 2017 was JAC, and priced at $10 for 2018. They finished D25 and were a massive waste of money. Not only did every combo outscore them, 3 of 4 D's valued at $2 outscored them by themselves! You may as well pay $100 for a QB.
2017 - The top D in 2016 was KC, and priced at $7 for 2017. They finished D15 and were a massive waste of money. Thirteen cheaper D's outscored them, and you could've purchased two or more.
Feel free to roster BUF and DAL!
2021 - The top D in 2020 was PIT, and priced at $7 for 2021. They finished D21 and were a massive waste of money. You could not have chosen multiple D's with differing byes and scored less, no matter how bad they were. The bottom 3 D's were LV, DET, and JAC, who combined to score 101 points and cost $6 total. PIT cost $7 and scored 83. And of course, PIT was more common than all 3 of the teams who teamed up to outscore them.
2020 - The top D in 2019 was CHI, and priced at $5 for 2020. They finished D20 and were a massive waste of money. Half the league was cheaper and outscored them.
2019 - The top D in 2018 was CHI, and priced at $10 for 2019. They finished D25 and were a massive waste of money. There were over 300 combinations of D's $10 and under, and every one of them outscored CHI. Let me repeat that - CHI was outscored by every possible combo $10 and under. If there ever was a Gus Edwards of D's, CHI was it.
2018 - The top D in 2017 was JAC, and priced at $10 for 2018. They finished D25 and were a massive waste of money. Not only did every combo outscore them, 3 of 4 D's valued at $2 outscored them by themselves! You may as well pay $100 for a QB.
2017 - The top D in 2016 was KC, and priced at $7 for 2017. They finished D15 and were a massive waste of money. Thirteen cheaper D's outscored them, and you could've purchased two or more.
Feel free to roster BUF and DAL!
The rules state they will always round up, so that's why you are missing a few. For example, when you get to week 14, you start with 227, and should multiply by .6, which gives you 136.2, rounded up to 137. Even if it's .01, they will round up.
apalmer
Footballguy
You're probably thinking of the playoff contest numbers.
apalmer
Footballguy
Titans_fan
Footballguy
I reserve the right to change this (probably more than once), but I made some wholesale changes from previous iterations. Really like having few BYEs late and I think I have all different BYEs at the skill positions except Pierce and Swift in Week 6, but I can live with that. Tear it apart!
QB - Russell Wilson - DEN/9 - $18
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9
RB - DAndre Swift - DET/6 - $29
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Jerick McKinnon - KC/8 - $8
RB - Eno Benjamin - ARI/13 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $17
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - D.J. Chark - DET/6 - $7
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Sammy Watkins - GB/14 - $4
TE - Irv Smith - MIN/7 - $14
TE - Albert Okwuegbunam - DEN/9 - $9
TE - Mo Alie-Cox - IND/14 - $6
PK - Cade York - CLE/9 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/6 - $3
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/14 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
QB - Russell Wilson - DEN/9 - $18
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9
RB - DAndre Swift - DET/6 - $29
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Jerick McKinnon - KC/8 - $8
RB - Eno Benjamin - ARI/13 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $17
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/10 - $11
WR - D.J. Chark - DET/6 - $7
WR - Josh Palmer - LAC/8 - $6
WR - Sammy Watkins - GB/14 - $4
TE - Irv Smith - MIN/7 - $14
TE - Albert Okwuegbunam - DEN/9 - $9
TE - Mo Alie-Cox - IND/14 - $6
PK - Cade York - CLE/9 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/6 - $3
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/14 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
dbc925
Footballguy
If this isn’t the final roster, it’s going to be awfully close. Way more bye $ up front than my previous entry.
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $19
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9
QB - Marcus Mariota - ATL/14 - $5
QB - Desmond Ridder - ATL/14 - $4
I saw way too many people doing the Cousins/Carr thing, so I needed some variance.
RB - Cam Akers - LAR/7 - $20
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
Shorter RB roster than I’d like, but I think this whole group is undervalues. As Akers goes, so goes my contest.
WR - Davante Adams - LV/6 - $29
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/14 - $5
A stud, two very good proven WRs going to better QB situations, and three young guys with loads of potential. Looking to catch lightning in a bottle.
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/8 - $30
TE - Noah Fant - SEA/11 - $10
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
TE - Tommy Tremble - CAR/13 - $5
Strength and depth. Kelce should produce most weeks, and one of the other guys likely will in any given week.
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/9 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
If I rethink anything, it will be carrying just two kickers. Looking hard at dropping the Vikes D and taking
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/10 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
SF and BAL should probably both be at least $5, so I like them at $4.
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/10 - $19
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9
QB - Marcus Mariota - ATL/14 - $5
QB - Desmond Ridder - ATL/14 - $4
I saw way too many people doing the Cousins/Carr thing, so I needed some variance.
RB - Cam Akers - LAR/7 - $20
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
Shorter RB roster than I’d like, but I think this whole group is undervalues. As Akers goes, so goes my contest.
WR - Davante Adams - LV/6 - $29
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/14 - $5
A stud, two very good proven WRs going to better QB situations, and three young guys with loads of potential. Looking to catch lightning in a bottle.
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/8 - $30
TE - Noah Fant - SEA/11 - $10
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/14 - $5
TE - Tommy Tremble - CAR/13 - $5
Strength and depth. Kelce should produce most weeks, and one of the other guys likely will in any given week.
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/9 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
If I rethink anything, it will be carrying just two kickers. Looking hard at dropping the Vikes D and taking
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/10 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
SF and BAL should probably both be at least $5, so I like them at $4.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Where are you getting this data from? I lost some of my historical DB and am trying to reconstruct it... not sure where to find the old contest pages on the new website. Feel free to DM me if that's easier.
The old contest pages are gone forever, I think. I also lost most of my data over the years, but luckily, my excel file on Defenses goes back to the 2010 contest. If you message me your e-mail, I will gladly send it your way. The .xls file is pretty self-explanatory, with yearly tabs at the bottom.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
FWIW, Excel has a formula for that.
=ROUNDUP(remaining_teams*(100-cutoff%)/100)
