2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

[Galileo]

So, has everyone with Robinson in their lineup started editing again?

 

[cstruk]

So, has everyone with Robinson in their lineup started editing again?

Working on it. Hope he comes through ok.

 

[Team Chaos]

So, has everyone with Robinson in their lineup started editing again?

As I was entering my first try, I saw something come across the phone. Submitted with Robinson on my roster, and then read the article. I really feel for the kid. I hope he heals quickly and can pick up where he left off.

 

[TwinTurbo]

@TheWinz and friends, who would you rather for $18:

• D.Jones + Skyy Moore
• T.Lawrence + Hardman
• B.Mayfield + MVS
• K.Pickett + JuJu

None of the above is also a valid response.

 

[Shaunz33]

@TheWinz who would you rather:
D.Jones + Skyy Moore for $18
T.Lawrence + Hardman for $18
None of the above is also a valid response.

Baker & MVS is even another combo/option that fits this pattern …. if he gets starter job (which doesn’t look that way) I’d even go Pickett & JuJu

 

[joey]

The Robinson situation (scary and sad. Sheesh)…

I went from 5 RBs I was really digging to 8 RBs. “Downgraded“ from Dobbins to Paterson and then grabbed 3 other cheap RBs hoping for to capture a couple of lightning in a bottle weeks.

 

[TwinTurbo]

@TheWinz who would you rather:
D.Jones + Skyy Moore for $18
T.Lawrence + Hardman for $18
None of the above is also a valid response.

Baker & MVS is even another combo/option that fits this pattern …. if he gets starter job (which doesn’t look that way) I’d even go Pickett & JuJu

Yeah I had Pickett + WR as another variation but he may not start. I will add both of these options to the list.

 

[H8fulHuck]

@TheWinz who would you rather:
D.Jones + Skyy Moore for $18
T.Lawrence + Hardman for $18
None of the above is also a valid response.

Baker & MVS is even another combo/option that fits this pattern …. if he gets starter job (which doesn’t look that way) I’d even go Pickett & JuJu

Yeah I had Pickett + WR as another variation but he may not start. I will add both of these options to the list.

Trubisky played the entire first half and looked good. Every indication he will start. Still, it’ll be hard to keep Pickett on the bench. Guess we shall see

 

[BassNBrew]

QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
QB - Baker Mayfield - CAR/13 - $8
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/9 - $23
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/14 - $9
RB - Zamir White - LV/6 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - KC/8 - $15
WR - Allen Lazard - GB/14 - $12
WR - Parris Campbell - IND/14 - $7
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/7 - $7
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
WR - Jalen Tolbert - DAL/9 - $6
WR - Devin Duvernay - BAL/10 - $6
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF/7 - $6
WR - WanDale Robinson - NYG/9 - $5
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/8 - $30
TE - Austin Hooper - TEN/6 - $8
TE - Cameron Brate - TB/11 - $7
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Washington Commanders - WAS/14 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3

Tear it apart guys. Byes force me off some guys I like better.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

OK, I'm done 22 players, 2 QB, 6 RB, 7 WR, 2 TE, 3 K, 2 D/ST, done.

I spent too much on my defenses. Mock me at your peril.

OK, I lied.

NOW it's final.

I went with 21. My rooster was too fat.

2 QB - $26
5 RB - $83
7 WR - $104
2 TE - $20
3 K - $9
2 D/ST - $8
----------------
21 @ $250

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10

The problem with this is that Pierce is the free space on the BINGO card. Everyone gonna have him.

I still have him, but I keep thinking of a reason to not have him. The problem there is I can't see anyone matching his production for his price.

 

[a_troll00]

RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10

The problem with this is that Pierce is the free space on the BINGO card. Everyone gonna have him.

I still have him, but I keep thinking of a reason to not have him. The problem there is I can't see anyone matching his production for his price.

Trust me, not having the guy everyone else has can be really dangerous. If that guy goes off, it can put you in a world of hurt, especially in the later weeks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Trust me, not having the guy everyone else has can be really dangerous. If that guy goes off, it can put you in a world of hurt, especially in the later weeks.

Oh, I know - like I said, I have him. He might be the 1 dude I haven't unchecked since I created my 1st lineup.

But he will be (close to) 100% owned at that price. And one doesn't win this deal by having the same guy everyone else has.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

But he will be 100% owned at that price. And one doesn't win this deal by having the same guy everyone else has.

He won't help you win, but he'll help you not lose.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But he will be 100% owned at that price. And one doesn't win this deal by having the same guy everyone else has.

He won't help you win, but he'll help you not lose.

Exactly.

 

[Saint]

I just wanted to stop and take a moment to recognize a few FBG'ers. The following 9 members are the only ones that have posted in every contest thread since 2012:
@apalmer @rzrback77 @KingPrawn @The Man With No Name @BassNBrew @QuizGuy66 @Saint @Ignoratio Elenchi @TwinTurbo
and these 3 will join them as soon as they post in this thread: @LittlePhatty @Don Quixote @chocula

There were plenty of folks who just missed a single season. I spent many hours digging through the threads, and I am in awe of the loyalty shown by you folks. Cheers!

Loyalty to reward what J has built here.

Is this the year we get an extra $15 to spend in the budget....????

 

[Saint]

27 Man Rooster.... I *still* really like the cheapo receivers this year. Iteration #... a lot.

• Rooster Construction
  • 3 QB / $31 / 12.4% of budget - Still holding strong here.
  • 7 RB / $76 / 30.4% of budget - Made some changes
  • 7 WR / $77 / 30.8% of budget - Lost some of the cheapo receivers... sigh.
  • 4 TE / $47 / 18.8% of budget - More changes
  • 3 K / $9 / 3.6% of budget - Injuries have hit.. had to change.
  • 3 D / $10 / 4.0% of budget - Had an extra buck.. threw it in a defense
• Bye Week Analysis
  • Week 6 - 12.8% of budget off
  • Week 7 - 15.2% of budget off
  • Week 8 - 8.4% of budget off
  • Week 9 - 18.0% of budget off
  • Week 10 - 22.8% of budget off
  • Week 11- 15.6% of budget off
  • Week 12 - 0.0% of budget off
  • Week 13 - 5.2% of budget off

$250 / 100% of budget used

 

[TwinTurbo]

RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10

The problem with this is that Pierce is the free space on the BINGO card. Everyone gonna have him.

I still have him, but I keep thinking of a reason to not have him. The problem there is I can't see anyone matching his production for his price.

I have one version with him, one without. There isn't better value for $10 if he stays healthy. So not including him would be a bet that he doesn't .

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So not including him would be a bet that he doesn't .

Or that when the games are real he isn’t the world beater he appears to be.

It’s a gamble. But it’s the sort of gamble one might take to have a better chance to win.

I think it’s safe to say rosters that leave him off will be outliers.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

So not including him would be a bet that he doesn't .

Or that when the games are real he isn’t the world beater he appears to be.

It’s a gamble. But it’s the sort of gamble one might take to have a better chance to win.

I think it’s safe to say rosters that leave him off will be outliers.

Thing is you don't really get a lot of leverage by fading the public in a situation like this. If you don't take Pierce and he sucks, it's like you got to spend $250 and everyone else got to spend $240 - looking over what you could do with an extra $10, how much do you think it would increase your win probability over the field? I suspect it's not much. Of course it would provide some amount of edge but I don't think it's enough to justify avoiding an obvious value pick.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

looking over what you could do with an extra $10, how much do you think it would increase your win probability over the field?

I agree, and that's precisely why he's on my final rooster.

That said, I could imagine a scenario where a Josh Palmer or Khalil Herbert could be significantly better. Pierce has reportedly never had a heavy workload. If he proves to be a bust, and you could have spent that $ on a Palmer, and Keenan Allen misses time....I'm just sayin, the is a potential lineup without him that could be more profitable.

I'm still keeping him on my rooster.

 

[TheWinz]

Spent the last 2 days being overwhelmed, trying to learn how to do live scoring. I had to admit defeat and will not be taking on the task. Hopefully someone with enough computer knowledge will find a way. Sorry for getting your hopes up.

 

[Deamon]

Spent the last 2 days being overwhelmed, trying to learn how to do live scoring. I had to admit defeat and will not be taking on the task. Hopefully someone with enough computer knowledge will find a way. Sorry for getting your hopes up.

You're still a Contest hero even without taking that on! Thanks for trying. There has to be a way...

 

[Deamon]

Is Gibson even worth the $20 IF Robinson is out for the year and they don't bring anyone else in? Still seems priced fairly high but if he's the guy there, I dunno.

 

[Maggot Brain]

OK, I'm done 22 players, 2 QB, 6 RB, 7 WR, 2 TE, 3 K, 2 D/ST, done.

I spent too much on my defenses. Mock me at your peril.

OK, I lied.

NOW it's final.

I went with 21. My rooster was too fat.

2 QB - $26
5 RB - $83
7 WR - $104
2 TE - $20
3 K - $9
2 D/ST - $8
----------------
21 @ $250

Are u sure ????

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

OK, I'm done 22 players, 2 QB, 6 RB, 7 WR, 2 TE, 3 K, 2 D/ST, done.

I spent too much on my defenses. Mock me at your peril.

OK, I lied.

NOW it's final.

I went with 21. My rooster was too fat.

2 QB - $26
5 RB - $83
7 WR - $104
2 TE - $20
3 K - $9
2 D/ST - $8
----------------
21 @ $250

Are u sure ????

Positive.

 

[TheWinz]

@TheWinz and friends, who would you rather for $18:

• D.Jones + Skyy Moore
• T.Lawrence + Hardman
• B.Mayfield + MVS
• K.Pickett + JuJu

None of the above is also a valid response.

My first answer has to be "depends". Are those QB's your 2nd or 3rd options?

 

[Maggot Brain]

I like Mike Davis/Christian Kirk to really do well this year. My sleepers/surprises.


QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Russell Wilson - DEN/9 - $18
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Dontrell Hilliard - TEN/6 - $5
RB - Mike Davis - BAL/10 - $4
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Christian Kirk - JAX/11 - $16
WR - Elijah Moore - NYJ/10 - $13
WR - D.J. Chark - DET/6 - $7
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Austin Hooper - TEN/6 - $8
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI/7 - $5
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/13 - $3

 

[TwinTurbo]

So not including him would be a bet that he doesn't .

Or that when the games are real he isn’t the world beater he appears to be.

It’s a gamble. But it’s the sort of gamble one might take to have a better chance to win.

I think it’s safe to say rosters that leave him off will be outliers.

I'm probably going to leave him off.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm probably going to leave him off.

May I ask why?

 

[TwinTurbo]

@TheWinz and friends, who would you rather for $18:

• D.Jones + Skyy Moore
• T.Lawrence + Hardman
• B.Mayfield + MVS
• K.Pickett + JuJu

None of the above is also a valid response.

My first answer has to be "depends". Are those QB's your 2nd or 3rd options?

The QB would be the only backup. The WR would be the only Chief. Week 7 is particularly important. Jones and Lawrence play each other week 7. Mayfield vs. Bucs. Pickett may or may not start against the Fins.

 

[TheWinz]

QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
QB - Baker Mayfield - CAR/13 - $8
QB - Davis Mills - HOU/6 - $7

To me, the main problem I have with guys like Mayfield and Mills is they aren't expected to throw for lots of yards or TD's, and they aren't runners. Alot has to fall correctly for them to have boom weeks, and you certainly aren't rostering them for their consistency. FWIW, I'd rather have backups like Darnold. At least he can have boom weeks with his legs.

 

[dbc925]

Kind of zeroing in on what my final final is going to look like. Outside of TE, I’ve found cheaper players I like at a lot of positions. 26 players, breaks down like this:

QB, 4 for $36
RB, 6 for $60
WR, 7 for $77
TE, 3 for $56
PK, 3 for $10
TD, 3 for $11

Total, 26 for $250

Bye week distribution

Week 6, 4 for $39. 15.6%
Week 7, 3 for $31. 12.4%
Week 8, 1 for $15. 6%
Week 9, 6 for $55. 22%
Week 10, 2 for 19. 7.6%
Week 11, 2 for $30. 12%
Week 13, 1 for $3. 1.2%
Week 14, 7 for $58. 23.2%

Week 9 and week 14 look tough, but I am only losing one of my top four players at any one position in each of them. A new strategy from a guy who has yet to sniff week 11 since this contest’s inception. So don’t listen to me.

 

[Maggot Brain]

I like Mike Davis/Christian Kirk to really do well this year. My sleepers/surprises.


QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Russell Wilson - DEN/9 - $18
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Dontrell Hilliard - TEN/6 - $5
RB - Mike Davis - BAL/10 - $4
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Christian Kirk - JAX/11 - $16
WR - Elijah Moore - NYJ/10 - $13
WR - D.J. Chark - DET/6 - $7
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Austin Hooper - TEN/6 - $8
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/10 - $3
TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI/7 - $5
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/13 - $3

Russell has a Peytonesque season

Saquon comes back and challenges for RB1/Mike Davis surprises EVERYONE.

Courtland Sutton and Mike Williams finish in Top 10

Goedert/Kmet finish top 7

Philly's defense goes turnover crazy.

My dream team that wins it all.

Already got my food bank picked out.

 

[H8fulHuck]

We haven’t posted many stud 18 player rosters. The TE thread has a slew of guys marked as good shots to exceed expectations. Went mad scientist to create this bad boy. Figure there will be thousands of these 18 types.

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/13 - $37
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/8 - $34
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/9 - $28
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/13 - $15
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Hunter Henry - NE/10 - $12
TE - Evan Engram - JAX/11 - $9
TE - David Njoku - CLE/9 - $9
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/9 - $5
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/11 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3

Take advantage of 1.5 PPR for TE and it’ll count on 2-3 each week. Good bye distribution between RB,WR and TE not having too many off at one time to fill flex.

 

[Saint]

Week 14, 7 for $58. 23.2%

Week 9 and week 14 look tough, but I am only losing one of my top four players at any one position in each of them. A new strategy from a guy who has yet to sniff week 11 since this contest’s inception. So don’t listen to me.

Week 14 looks very rough and you are talking about almost a quarter of your budget being unavailable in the highest cut week.... I've made it once to the finals, but that was almost seven years ago... so who knows.

 

[TwinTurbo]

We haven’t posted many stud 18 player rosters. The TE thread has a slew of guys marked as good shots to exceed expectations. Went mad scientist to create this bad boy. Figure there will be thousands of these 18 types.

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/13 - $37
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/8 - $34
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/9 - $28
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/13 - $15
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Hunter Henry - NE/10 - $12
TE - Evan Engram - JAX/11 - $9
TE - David Njoku - CLE/9 - $9
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/9 - $5
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/11 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3

Take advantage of 1.5 PPR for TE and it’ll count on 2-3 each week. Good bye distribution between RB,WR and TE not having too many off at one time to fill flex.

I too will have a 18 player roster, but my preference would be to carry 4-5 RB and WR. I would swap a TE for a WR. And I would swap a K for a RB.

 

[dbc925]

Week 14, 7 for $58. 23.2%

Week 9 and week 14 look tough, but I am only losing one of my top four players at any one position in each of them. A new strategy from a guy who has yet to sniff week 11 since this contest’s inception. So don’t listen to me.

Week 14 looks very rough and you are talking about almost a quarter of your budget being unavailable in the highest cut week.... I've made it once to the finals, but that was almost seven years ago... so who knows.

Nope, I absolutely get it. But I've rationalized it like this - other than my top TE, I'm losing my #3 and 4 QBs, my #4 RB, my #6 and 7 WRs, and a kicker.

 

[Team Chaos]

Is Gibson even worth the $20 IF Robinson is out for the year and they don't bring anyone else in? Still seems priced fairly high but if he's the guy there, I dunn

The question that I have been wondering about is, if Brian Robinson only misses a month, is he still worth rostering at his price? Both seem to be valid questions.

 

[Deamon]

Is Gibson even worth the $20 IF Robinson is out for the year and they don't bring anyone else in? Still seems priced fairly high but if he's the guy there, I dunn

The question that I have been wondering about is, if Brian Robinson only misses a month, is he still worth rostering at his price? Both seem to be valid questions.

Yes that's also a good question. I'm not sure the answer to that but I'd be tempted to say no. Because at the deadline time for the contest, we're not going to likely have a return timeline. If its 1-3 weeks then sure. But if it's "about a month" then that could easily mean 2, and how in shape will he be then, how much will the injuries affect him, and will your team even still be alive by then?

 

[Team Chaos]

Is Gibson even worth the $20 IF Robinson is out for the year and they don't bring anyone else in? Still seems priced fairly high but if he's the guy there, I dunn

The question that I have been wondering about is, if Brian Robinson only misses a month, is he still worth rostering at his price? Both seem to be valid questions.

Yes that's also a good question. I'm not sure the answer to that but I'd be tempted to say no. Because at the deadline time for the contest, we're not going to likely have a return timeline. If its 1-3 weeks then sure. But if it's "about a month" then that could easily mean 2, and how in shape will he be then, how much will the injuries affect him, and will your team even still be alive by then?

All very good points

 

[Deamon]

We haven’t posted many stud 18 player rosters. The TE thread has a slew of guys marked as good shots to exceed expectations. Went mad scientist to create this bad boy. Figure there will be thousands of these 18 types.

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/13 - $37
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/8 - $34
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/9 - $28
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/13 - $15
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Hunter Henry - NE/10 - $12
TE - Evan Engram - JAX/11 - $9
TE - David Njoku - CLE/9 - $9
PK - Brandon McManus - DEN/9 - $5
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/11 - $4
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3

Take advantage of 1.5 PPR for TE and it’ll count on 2-3 each week. Good bye distribution between RB,WR and TE not having too many off at one time to fill flex.

Ya 3 is way too few. I thought I was being risky with 5 at each, and cconsidering 4 rbs. Week 6, you 100 percent have to use cmc and ekeler and lamb and robinson. If a couple have dud games, you're out of the contest before Halloween.

 

[Team Chaos]

Is Gibson even worth the $20 IF Robinson is out for the year and they don't bring anyone else in? Still seems priced fairly high but if he's the guy there, I dunn

The question that I have been wondering about is, if Brian Robinson only misses a month, is he still worth rostering at his price? Both seem to be valid questions.

Yes that's also a good question. I'm not sure the answer to that but I'd be tempted to say no. Because at the deadline time for the contest, we're not going to likely have a return timeline. If its 1-3 weeks then sure. But if it's "about a month" then that could easily mean 2, and how in shape will he be then, how much will the injuries affect him, and will your team even still be alive by then?

All very good points

And, base on past years, no my team will not still be alive by then.

 

[Deamon]

@TheWinz

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/14 - $20
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/13 - $23
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/14 - $24
TE - Dalton Schultz - DAL/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $3

OR

QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $14
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $13
RB - Dalvin Cook - MIN/7 - $29
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - D.J. Moore - CAR/13 - $23
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Gabriel Davis - BUF/7 - $19
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown - DET/6 - $17
WR - George Pickens - PIT/9 - $6
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/14 - $24
TE - Dalton Schultz - DAL/9 - $18
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
PK - Rodrigo Blankenship - IND/14 - $3
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/13 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $3

 

[TwinTurbo]

So not including him would be a bet that he doesn't .

Or that when the games are real he isn’t the world beater he appears to be.

It’s a gamble. But it’s the sort of gamble one might take to have a better chance to win.

I think it’s safe to say rosters that leave him off will be outliers.

Thing is you don't really get a lot of leverage by fading the public in a situation like this. If you don't take Pierce and he sucks, it's like you got to spend $250 and everyone else got to spend $240 - looking over what you could do with an extra $10, how much do you think it would increase your win probability over the field? I suspect it's not much. Of course it would provide some amount of edge but I don't think it's enough to justify avoiding an obvious value pick.

For me, you could spend that extra $10 on 1-3 players that could absolutely give an edge if the following happens:
1. Pierce doesn't meet expectations.
2. Texans run game is the same or worse than last season.
3. The cheap 1-3 players you picked instead collectively outscore Pierce.

All of these things are well within the realm of possibility.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

3. The cheap 1-3 players you picked instead collectively outscore Pierce.

This is the only nit I'll pick with your reasoning - one or more of the 3 would have to periodically, individually out-score pierce.

For best ball that's what really matters.

 

[kajaet]

Thanks for the Sticky

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ooh, pinned!

Nifty!

 

[msudaisy26]

QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/7 - $19
QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/11 - $11
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $26
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/10 - $21
RB - Chase Edmonds - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Nyheim Hines - IND/14 - $13
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/8 - $21
WR - Allen Robinson - LAR/7 - $20
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Julio Jones - TB/11 - $9
WR - K.J. Osborn - MIN/7 - $8
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/7 - $15
TE - Austin Hooper - TEN/6 - $8
TE - Mo Alie-Cox - IND/14 - $6
PK - Joey Slye - WAS/14 - $4
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/9 - $3
PK - Austin Seibert - DET/6 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/6 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/13 - $3

This is going to change. Too many people have Chase, Sutton, Williams and Goedert for my liking.

 

[TwinTurbo]

3. The cheap 1-3 players you picked instead collectively outscore Pierce.

This is the only nit I'll pick with your reasoning - one or more of the 3 would have to periodically, individually out-score pierce.

For best ball that's what really matters.

Yes that's what I meant. Those players end up having more scores that count.