2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

[trilliant]

Most of the players with the highest ownership are the ones who had moderate or low cap numbers, and then had a strong
pre-season, or saw competing players get cut, and therefore had high stat projections on Footballguys as a result.

As we go through multiple iterations of our lineup before live date, trying to assemble the magic team that can survive to the
playoffs, we always look for value. A high stat projection without a corresponding high cap number is the very definition of
value for the purposes of this contest. The degree to which a particular owner believes the stat projection for each of those
individual players determines to a large degree which of them end up on his roster. Obviously there are also constraints
related to bye weeks, and constraints related to available cap space after settling on other players that are more expensive,
but desirable to the individual owner.

As we have seen this season, even if you assemble the perfect team, your fate will likely be determined more by injuries than
any other single factor.

If you are lucky enough avoid injuries, your fate might also be affected by players being traded, or players who were previously
starters being relegated to time shares (Fournette, Edwards-Helaire).

There was nothing above that you just read that you didn’t already know. Truth be told, you love the challenge as much as I do,
and that’s why we all come back here every year to play again, in spite of our disappointments.

Excellent points. To that, I'd add that I wonder how much of us exist in a bit of a FBG point projections "echo chamber" when it comes to looking for value in this contest. When prices are set, I'm assuming it's based on a combination of the FBG point projections at the date of release, along with some small adjustment for how late/early their bye weeks fall (I think I read this at some point).

That said, by the time we finalize our picks, some players have immediately increased value on their price due to Puppies' point about preseason/injuries, and the latest FBG projections would likely call those out. But if the majority of us are using those FBG projections, we're all "finding" the same values.

Some are more obvious than others, like Pierce. You can't NOT pick him up, right? No matter what rankings you use, that's extreme value.

I like and rely quite a bit on FBG projections, esp "rest of season" in the Dominator tool. But I do wonder if there is some advantage to being a bit contrarian in this particular contest. What if you used a combination of other site's rankings to define value in this contest and not FBG... You might exclude some value suggested by FBG, but it could even out with other values that surface using a different set of projections. But your advantage could fall with having a more differentiated bucket of "value" players than the rest of the field.

I'm very likely overanalyzing, but that's how my brain works. And yes, I LOVE this contest and the depth of thinking that could go into it.

 

[rzrback77]

Even with group think and/or herd mentality, there are so many options available due to the flex positions and variable scoring, that almost everyone sees different value players. The week to week volatility also greatly impacts outcomes.

As just one instance, I was in my first guillotine league this season (11 teams) so finals were in week ten. I had the high scoring team and was the only one with $ left for the final waivers. I added Kelce, Cooper Kupp and D. Henry to my loaded team. Henry has a low production game and Kupp posted -1 yards and I lost.

Depth is also critical in this contest, perhaps just as much as grabbing value.

 

[BassNBrew]

Most of the players with the highest ownership are the ones who had moderate or low cap numbers, and then had a strong
pre-season, or saw competing players get cut, and therefore had high stat projections on Footballguys as a result.

As we go through multiple iterations of our lineup before live date, trying to assemble the magic team that can survive to the
playoffs, we always look for value. A high stat projection without a corresponding high cap number is the very definition of
value for the purposes of this contest. The degree to which a particular owner believes the stat projection for each of those
individual players determines to a large degree which of them end up on his roster. Obviously there are also constraints
related to bye weeks, and constraints related to available cap space after settling on other players that are more expensive,
but desirable to the individual owner.

As we have seen this season, even if you assemble the perfect team, your fate will likely be determined more by injuries than
any other single factor.

If you are lucky enough avoid injuries, your fate might also be affected by players being traded, or players who were previously
starters being relegated to time shares (Fournette, Edwards-Helaire).

There was nothing above that you just read that you didn’t already know. Truth be told, you love the challenge as much as I do,
and that’s why we all come back here every year to play again, in spite of our disappointments.

Excellent points. To that, I'd add that I wonder how much of us exist in a bit of a FBG point projections "echo chamber" when it comes to looking for value in this contest. When prices are set, I'm assuming it's based on a combination of the FBG point projections at the date of release, along with some small adjustment for how late/early their bye weeks fall (I think I read this at some point).

That said, by the time we finalize our picks, some players have immediately increased value on their price due to Puppies' point about preseason/injuries, and the latest FBG projections would likely call those out. But if the majority of us are using those FBG projections, we're all "finding" the same values.

Some are more obvious than others, like Pierce. You can't NOT pick him up, right? No matter what rankings you use, that's extreme value.

I like and rely quite a bit on FBG projections, esp "rest of season" in the Dominator tool. But I do wonder if there is some advantage to being a bit contrarian in this particular contest. What if you used a combination of other site's rankings to define value in this contest and not FBG... You might exclude some value suggested by FBG, but it could even out with other values that surface using a different set of projections. But your advantage could fall with having a more differentiated bucket of "value" players than the rest of the field.

I'm very likely overanalyzing, but that's how my brain works. And yes, I LOVE this contest and the depth of thinking that could go into it.

1. You don't need to be different or unique in this contest to do well.
2. Every team gets unique quickly. IIRC, no team had the top five (or six) % owned players on their team.
3. With the availability of ADP, everyone's rankings are pretty much the same. Those that aren't on a global basis are going to generally be worse.

As you stated, the primary values to be found are due to changes in circumstances from when the contest is released until kickoff.

 

[Stray Doug]

Next year I might take 4 kickers.

 

[FairWarning]

Most of the players with the highest ownership are the ones who had moderate or low cap numbers, and then had a strong
pre-season, or saw competing players get cut, and therefore had high stat projections on Footballguys as a result.

As we go through multiple iterations of our lineup before live date, trying to assemble the magic team that can survive to the
playoffs, we always look for value. A high stat projection without a corresponding high cap number is the very definition of
value for the purposes of this contest. The degree to which a particular owner believes the stat projection for each of those
individual players determines to a large degree which of them end up on his roster. Obviously there are also constraints
related to bye weeks, and constraints related to available cap space after settling on other players that are more expensive,
but desirable to the individual owner.

As we have seen this season, even if you assemble the perfect team, your fate will likely be determined more by injuries than
any other single factor.

If you are lucky enough avoid injuries, your fate might also be affected by players being traded, or players who were previously
starters being relegated to time shares (Fournette, Edwards-Helaire).

There was nothing above that you just read that you didn’t already know. Truth be told, you love the challenge as much as I do,
and that’s why we all come back here every year to play again, in spite of our disappointments.

Excellent points. To that, I'd add that I wonder how much of us exist in a bit of a FBG point projections "echo chamber" when it comes to looking for value in this contest. When prices are set, I'm assuming it's based on a combination of the FBG point projections at the date of release, along with some small adjustment for how late/early their bye weeks fall (I think I read this at some point).

That said, by the time we finalize our picks, some players have immediately increased value on their price due to Puppies' point about preseason/injuries, and the latest FBG projections would likely call those out. But if the majority of us are using those FBG projections, we're all "finding" the same values.

Some are more obvious than others, like Pierce. You can't NOT pick him up, right? No matter what rankings you use, that's extreme value.

I like and rely quite a bit on FBG projections, esp "rest of season" in the Dominator tool. But I do wonder if there is some advantage to being a bit contrarian in this particular contest. What if you used a combination of other site's rankings to define value in this contest and not FBG... You might exclude some value suggested by FBG, but it could even out with other values that surface using a different set of projections. But your advantage could fall with having a more differentiated bucket of "value" players than the rest of the field.

I'm very likely overanalyzing, but that's how my brain works. And yes, I LOVE this contest and the depth of thinking that could go into it.

I tried to be contrarian but it’ll bite me in week 14.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Happy Zamir White breakout day for all of his faithful owners (I can dream right)?

 

[scottybo]

Happy Zamir White breakout day for all of his faithful owners (I can dream right)?

I bet he booms to 0.2 today without a doubt.

 

[da_budman]

Even with group think and/or herd mentality, there are so many options available due to the flex positions and variable scoring, that almost everyone sees different value players. The week to week volatility also greatly impacts outcomes.

As just one instance, I was in my first guillotine league this season (11 teams) so finals were in week ten. I had the high scoring team and was the only one with $ left for the final waivers. I added Kelce, Cooper Kupp and Kelce to my loaded team. Henry has a low production game and Kupp posted -1 yards and I lost.

Depth is also critical in this contest, perhaps just as much as grabbing value.

Karma bit ya in the but for cheating and picking up the Kelce clones.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Happy Zamir White breakout day for all of his faithful owners (I can dream right)?

I bet he booms to 0.2 today without a doubt.

Expected anyone to double their normal weekly output seems ambitious but I like the way you think!

 

[Puppies]

Happy Zamir White breakout day for all of his faithful owners (I can dream right)?

I think one carry for 5 yards, would be a breakout for Zamir White

 

[NotSmart]

I'll be happy if Sutton just manages to score enough to count as a flex for my team.

 

[da_budman]

I'll be happy if Sutton just manages to score enough to count as a flex for my team.

Speaking of

I'll be happy if Sutton just manages to score enough to count as a flex for my team.

Speaking of players I didnt pick especially for trying to be more unique I am still rooting for him (and a bunch of you guys) to do well. The good news is the play calling has been taken away from the awful Hackett this week which hopefully helps Sutton ( who I picked in my 2 leagues as wr#2)

 

[NotSmart]

It "feels" like pretty low scoring across the board so far.

 

[apalmer]

It "feels" like pretty low scoring across the board so far.

Sure hope so--last two weeks I've been over100 at halftime of the 1:00 games. Today I'm at 59 (and that includes 26.4 from Henry on Thursday).

 

[QuizGuy66]

Zamir inactive today

-QG

 

[scottybo]

Zamir inactive today

-QG

We're screwed.

 

[Puppies]

Good luck to all the rest of you guys this week.

Puppies are not going to be within a sniff of the cut line this week , even if it’s a really low one. I saw this coming after Goedert went on IR last week.

I'm missing Goedert and JuJu to injuries; Zay and Ingram on bye; Fournette and Edwards-Helaire now acting as backups rather than starters. The few players I have left are almost all laying eggs today. Only St. Brown is getting any points. Simply put, I'm screwed!

At the rate I’m going today, I’ll be lucky to score 1/2 of the cut line.

It’s been fun…

 

[dbc925]

Does anyone (outside of King Henry and Jamaal Williams owners) feel good about their chances this week? This is awful. I feel like have no shot, How often do you draft three kickers and take an auto-zero because none of them are playing? I’m looking at you, Bos, Bullock and Blanky.

Nobody on bye today, but lost Juju, Doubs and Goedert.

I managed to avoid injuries until now, but just like my healthy squad got me this far, the bug is going to put me on the sidelines…

 

[scottybo]

Only had 2 players in the early games.

Stevenson - 11.20
St. Brown - 15

Wonder if the early line will break 100.

 

[apalmer]

Does anyone (outside of King Henry and Jamaal Williams owners) feel good about their chances this week? This is awful. I feel like have no shot, How often do you draft three kickers and take an auto-zero because none of them are playing? I’m looking at you, Bos, Bullock and Blanky.

Nobody on bye today, but lost Juju, Doubs and Goedert.

I managed to avoid injuries until now, but just like my healthy squad got me this far, the bug is going to put me on the sidelines…

I've got Henry and still don't feel good. If it makes you feel better, 2 of my 3 kickers were active today and I got 4 points. Chubb and Pierce both under 10 points. I still have Sutton, Pickens, Hockenson and Schultz to go, but I'll need all of them to put up double digits, plus a good game from either the Minny or AZ defense and Pickett to outscore Allen if I want to get to 140.

 

[dbc925]

Does anyone (outside of King Henry and Jamaal Williams owners) feel good about their chances this week? This is awful. I feel like have no shot, How often do you draft three kickers and take an auto-zero because none of them are playing? I’m looking at you, Bos, Bullock and Blanky.

Nobody on bye today, but lost Juju, Doubs and Goedert.

I managed to avoid injuries until now, but just like my healthy squad got me this far, the bug is going to put me on the sidelines…

I've got Henry and still don't feel good. If it makes you feel better, 2 of my 3 kickers were active today and I got 4 points. Chubb and Pierce both under 10 points. I still have Sutton, Pickens, Hockenson and Schultz to go, but I'll need all of them to put up double digits, plus a good game from either the Minny or AZ defense and Pickett to outscore Allen if I want to get to 140.

I found this all very plausible until the last 10 words.

 

[scottybo]

If we don't get a cut line in the next hour, probably won't get one til the 3 late games are done.

 

[wollac]

107.25 After the first round of games

 

[scottybo]

Opening cut line WAY under 100 at 68.15.

 

[wollac]

Opening cut line WAY under 100 at 68.15.

WOW

 

[apalmer]

Does anyone (outside of King Henry and Jamaal Williams owners) feel good about their chances this week? This is awful. I feel like have no shot, How often do you draft three kickers and take an auto-zero because none of them are playing? I’m looking at you, Bos, Bullock and Blanky.

Nobody on bye today, but lost Juju, Doubs and Goedert.

I managed to avoid injuries until now, but just like my healthy squad got me this far, the bug is going to put me on the sidelines…

I've got Henry and still don't feel good. If it makes you feel better, 2 of my 3 kickers were active today and I got 4 points. Chubb and Pierce both under 10 points. I still have Sutton, Pickens, Hockenson and Schultz to go, but I'll need all of them to put up double digits, plus a good game from either the Minny or AZ defense and Pickett to outscore Allen if I want to get to 140.

I found this all very plausible until the last 10 words.

Almost there.

 

[dbc925]

Opening cut line WAY under 100 at 68.15.

And I am sitting at 47 and change. All good things must come to an end. I don’t think I’ve got enough horses to push me beyond where I need to be. On the bright side, week 11 is the furthest I’ve ever made it in this contest..

 

[Puppies]

TEAM SCORES AFTER 1PM GAMES

146.45 OleMissRebel <==== Shout out to Ole Miss Rebel for posting the highest overall score after 1pm games.
107.25 Wollac
93.70 Army Eye
89.70 ChurchOfIggyPop
87.10 Bamabuddha
87.10 Da_budman
84.05 aPalmer
83.85 Hagmania
73.65 Sooted72
73.00 Ackme
70.40 BroncosFan07
70.00 Menobrown
69.50 AAAAA Bail Bonds
68.15 ------ Cut Line ----------------
54.70 Birdie048
53.90 Gottabesweet
53.40 Scoobus
47.75 dbc925
47.15 ZWK
44.70 Puppies
32.90 Trilliant
32.20 rzrback77
26.20 Scottybo
22050 ajm25701

NOTE: Unfortunately, it looks like the majority of the teams still qualifying for the @Joe Bryant $100 bonus, are in danger of missing the cut this week. Teams in bold are the ones who still qualified going into week 11.

 

[a_troll00]

What a crazy week for fantasy. Good luck to all those still in this.

I have a feeling a lot of legit hopefuls to reach the finals will be wiped out this week.

 

[scottybo]

137.95 so far + Kelce (-6.7) and AZ D (-0.00). Mitchell vs Schultz (-6.7) for the final flex spot given Kelce can outscore Schultz. Goose egg from K this week with Blanky needing a home and Myers on bye.

 

[apalmer]

127.65 with only whatever the AZ D can score to go. If Pickens hadn't dropped that sure TD, I'd be sitting around 145 and feeling much better.

 

[Puppies]

127.65 with only whatever the AZ D can score to go. If Pickens hadn't dropped that sure TD, I'd be sitting around 145 and feeling much better.

Indeed. Can't believe Pickens didn't make that catch. It would have been worth a total of 11.90 points. I'm sitting at 103.85 at the moment and I don't have a chance to advance. But had I Pickens made that catch, I would have 115.75 with Arizona -1.0 and Edwards Helaire - 2.8 left to play. I still probably would not have a chance to advance, but it would have been interesting if the cut line doesn't move too much at the next posting after the 4pm games and if I got a surprise from my two remaining players.

 

[bamabuddha]

I knew this week was gonna be tough…and so far I was correct…holding on by the skin of my teeth but think I am done…injuries got the best of me?[

 

[NotSmart]

TEAM SCORES AFTER 1PM GAMES

146.45 OleMissRebel <==== Shout out to Ole Miss Rebel for posting the highest overall score after 1pm games.
107.25 Wollac
93.70 Army Eye
89.70 ChurchOfIggyPop
87.10 Bamabuddha
87.10 Da_budman
84.05 aPalmer
83.85 Hagmania
73.65 Sooted72
73.00 Ackme
70.40 BroncosFan07
70.00 Menobrown
69.50 AAAAA Bail Bonds
68.15 ------ Cut Line ----------------
54.70 Birdie048
53.90 Gottabesweet
53.40 Scoobus
47.75 dbc925
47.15 ZWK
44.70 Puppies
32.90 Trilliant
32.20 rzrback77
26.20 Scottybo
22050 Tmirrione

NOTE: Unfortunately, it looks like the majority of the teams still qualifying for the @Joe Bryant $100 bonus, are in danger of missing the cut this week. Teams in bold are the ones who still qualified going into week 11.

:Oldunsure:

 

[scottybo]

Late game cut line +33.5 = 101.65

 

[Puppies]

Where We All Stand - after conclusion of the 4pm games.....

154.05 OleMissRebel
137.95 Scottybo
128.30 Menobrown
127.65 aPalmer
127.05 da_Budman
125.75 AAAAA Bail Bonds
123.70 ChurchOfIggyPop
122.85 Wollac
121.15 Scoobus
112.30 Army Eye
112.15 BroncosFan07
111.55 Ackme
110.85 Gottabesweet
103.85 Puppies
102.70 Bamabuddha
101.65 --------- CUT LINE ---------
101.05 rzrback77
95.35 Hagmania
94.45 dbc925
89.25 Sooted72
84.25 ZWK
80.55 ajm25701
66.25 Birdie048
61.60 Trilliant

Teams in bold are those that still qualified for the $100 bonus going into week 11.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Finished at 112 and change and cut line at 101. Can’t imagine that will hold up with some big offensive players remaining.

Proud that my team was able to muster that much considering my 2 RBs combined for 2.7 and my kicker and defense combined for 9.5. I needed good scores everywhere and almost got them.

 

[Birdie048]

The end is near…
66 and change with Big Mike W & Herbert. Big hill to climb and I knew it would be a challenge…I don’t see 50+ from them with Mike out hurt again!!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Ghost entry would be sweating The Turk 104.45 + (Palmer - 5.80) + (Ariz - 1.0)

Good luck to those sweating The Turk for real!!!
-QG

 

[rzrback77]

Sure could use another Palmer TD catch

 

[rzrback77]

Sure could use another Palmer TD catch

Thanks so much!

 

[rzrback77]

128.95, with Cardinals DST fully counting tomorrow and all but 2.something of Elijah Mitchell, there is hope.

 

[scottybo]

Travis Kelce

 

[rzrback77]

He is going to move that dang cut line.

 

[scottybo]

171.25 + all of AZ DEF to count. Only the AZ DEF bye week left to go in 2 wks.

 

[trilliant]

I knew I was on borrowed time. Looks like this is the week. My hope rested with Cousins/Mayfield, Saquan, and Schultz. Missed badly on all. Congrats to those who made the cut and good luck!

 

[Army Eye]

Pierce and Barkley, 2 of the top 3 owned RBs, who both have been producing all year, both finally get shut down in the SAME WEEK. Yeah, that'll shake things up!

 

[Stray Doug]

Ghost entry "survives" to week 12 thanks to big numbers in the late game from Kelce and Palmer (was ~93 and below the cut heading into the game, those two combined put me at ~157 I believe)

 

[wollac]

138.45

Arizona D to go (-1)

 

[ajm27501]

Wow Palmer gave me a semblance of life last night. Sitting at 108.45 with Aiyuk (-4.5) tonight. Hoping for the second stage of the miracle tonight