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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

128.95, with Cardinals DST fully counting tomorrow and all but 2.something of Elijah Mitchell, there is hope.
Felt the “need” to update this morning after checking the unofficial update, rzrback77 team score is 129.05 with current cut line at 111.35. Took a zero at PK and have a 0 currently at DST, but will count all Arizona DST score and all of Elijah Mitchell less 2.7.

Thanks @Joe Bryant for continuing to provide this contest, which is such a hoot to follow each season.
 
128.95, with Cardinals DST fully counting tomorrow and all but 2.something of Elijah Mitchell, there is hope.
Felt the “need” to update this morning after checking the unofficial update, rzrback77 team score is 129.05 with current cut line at 111.35. Took a zero at PK and have a 0 currently at DST, but will count all Arizona DST score and all of Elijah Mitchell less 2.7.

Thanks @Joe Bryant for continuing to provide this contest, which is such a hoot to follow each season.
Looks likea reasonable spot to be in..... very similar to me.... 127 + az with anything over 1 counting. Mitchel anything over 8.2 and Hopkins anything over 8.2 to flex and 10.9 for wr.
 
As I predicted last week after losing Goedert and JuJu, week 11 in all likelihood will be my elimination week. I have Arizona -1.0 left, and I'm 7.50 under the cut line. I honestly did not even expect to have any chance at all this week. But there is a very slim one depending on Arizona's defense.

A wild guess at the final cut line probably puts it between 115 and 118 depending on the scoring tonight.

So my chances to possibly survive to week 12 are roughly equal to the odds of the Arizona defense putting up 14 or more points tonight. It's possible but I don't see it happening. I would take at least one pick-6 plus mulitple sacks or turnovers.

It's been a fun ride and I'll still hang around root for the rest of you guys. I hope at least a few are able to cash in on the $100 bonus. There are several teams in our little group that have excellent lineups and have a pretty good chance to do that.

Good luck to everyone tonight, and on to week 12 for the survivors...
 
As I predicted last week after losing Goedert and JuJu, week 11 in all likelihood will be my elimination week. I have Arizona -1.0 left, and I'm 7.50 under the cut line. I honestly did not even expect to have any chance at all this week. But there is a very slim one depending on Arizona's defense.

A wild guess at the final cut line probably puts it between 115 and 118 depending on the scoring tonight.

So my chances to possibly survive to week 12 are roughly equal to the odds of the Arizona defense putting up 14 or more points tonight. It's possible but I don't see it happening. I would take at least one pick-6 plus mulitple sacks or turnovers.

It's been a fun ride and I'll still hang around root for the rest of you guys. I hope at least a few are able to cash in on the $100 bonus. There are several teams in our little group that have excellent lineups and have a pretty good chance to do that.

Good luck to everyone tonight, and on to week 12 for the survivors...
Hang in there: AZ has had weeks of 13, 18 and 10 points. No reason why they can't put up a 14 this week.
 
Good news for the fringe teams. If Kyler Murray sits , which seems very likely, only 1 team below the line has Jimmy Garoppolo, and he already has Derek Carr's 27 points. QB's may not move the line at all.
 
As I predicted last week after losing Goedert and JuJu, week 11 in all likelihood will be my elimination week. I have Arizona -1.0 left, and I'm 7.50 under the cut line. I honestly did not even expect to have any chance at all this week. But there is a very slim one depending on Arizona's defense.

A wild guess at the final cut line probably puts it between 115 and 118 depending on the scoring tonight.

So my chances to possibly survive to week 12 are roughly equal to the odds of the Arizona defense putting up 14 or more points tonight. It's possible but I don't see it happening. I would take at least one pick-6 plus mulitple sacks or turnovers.

It's been a fun ride and I'll still hang around root for the rest of you guys. I hope at least a few are able to cash in on the $100 bonus. There are several teams in our little group that have excellent lineups and have a pretty good chance to do that.

Good luck to everyone tonight, and on to week 12 for the survivors...
Hey an Az touchdown and a few ints/frs/qb sacks and you are right there....they have 5 tds on the year and a couple big numbers on the year..... Hang in there man. Wishing you extra luck and Karma for all the work you put into this thread.
 
Is there a way of seeing the entry that you submitted even after you've been eliminated (looooong ago :stalker:)?
Yes....

Go to this week's standings, and you'll see the number 11 at the end of the URL. Change that to the week that you were eliminated, or a prior one and press enter. That will take you to the standings of that week. Then once you are there, just search for your team name.

 
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Hey Guys... I've been out of town all day and got back about an hour before game time.

I quickly looked at everone's lineup who is on the bubble, trying to hop over the cut line, and quickly made up a spreadsheet to calculate real time scores based on the current stats.

As of Half-Time, it looks like a few of you guys are going are making a good case toward advancing to next week.

Assuming I have not missed any of the players on your roster (as I was really in a hurry to put this together), here's what I have for scores as of half time....
(note: I thought I saw that someone had AJ Green, but now I can't find which team it is. If it's your team, please let me know... Thanks!)

Half-Time Team Scores

111.55 + 00.00 = 111.55 Ackme
112.55 +11.80 = 124.35 Sooted 72
113.05 + 07.70 = 120.75 Gottabesweet
111.15 + 25.40 = 136.55 ZWK
108.45 + 03.20 = 111.65 ajm27501
103.85 + 00.00 = 103.85 Puppies (me) :cry:


UPDATE - END OF 3rd Quarter Team Scores

111.55 + 00.00 = 111.55 Ackme
112.55 +15.20 = 127.75 Sooted 72
113.05 + 11.00 = 124.15 Gottabesweet
111.15 + 28.80 = 139.95 ZWK
108.45 + 11.50 = 119.95 ajm27501
103.85 + 00.00 = 103.85 Puppies (me) :cry:


END OF GAME - FINAL WEEK 11 SCORES:
My guess is that everyone in numbers in green text below makes the cut line and advances to week 12.
Sadly, I didn't make it, but I'll still hang around and post, and root for the rest of you guys....

Good luck to all the survivors!
Edit: Final week 11 cut line just posted @12:25am. =
117.00. Everyone with (y) below made the cut!


111.55 + 00.00 = 111.55 Ackme
112.55 +15.20 = 127.75 Sooted 72 (y)
113.05 + 11.40 = 124.45 Gottabesweet(y)
111.15 + 39.80 = 150.95 ZWK(y)
108.45 + 11.50 = 119.95 ajm27501(y)
103.85 + 00.00 = 103.85 Puppies (me) :cry: I'm out......
 
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I was at 98.45 with CMAC (-2.2) and DeAndre Hopkins (-2.5). A garbage TD late would be sweet
That would put you at 125.95 and you almost certainly advance to week 12. I'm just guessing on the cut line but I think it probalby ends up around 115 or 118. I haven't checked ownership numbers on the players who put up big scores tonight, so it could go a little higher, but probably not much.
 
Joe's $100 survivors heading into week 12 are:
@scoobus - Give it up for a 6th place finish in week 11
@ZWK - Has beaten the odds with only Goff/Pickett at QB since Lance went out early
@scottybo - 18-player roster with goose eggs at K & D; still managed 170 this week
@rzrback77 - This team will celebrate November 20th as Josh Palmer Day from now on
@bamabuddha - The roster looks more like an infirmary list, but keeps on chugging
@ajm27501 - Can we get a medic for this team too? Mixon, Marquise, Juju, and Goedert
@menobrown - With a duo of Mahomes & Hurts, anything is possible
@apalmer - Gets my vote for best RB corps (Henry, Chubb, Stevenson, Pierce, Benjamin)
We are down to the Elite Eight. Best of luck, folks!

Can we get a moment of silence for our fallen comrades?
@Puppies @Ackme @dbc925
Sorry to see you go. Don't forget about the Subscriber Playoff Contest.
 
No change from Projections last week, congrats to the 885 that made it this far and good luck going forward!

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3661 3666
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2563 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1795 1804
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1257 1263
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 880 NEW 885
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 616 NEW 620
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 370 NEW 372
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 NEW 224 (this means the top highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
 
Joe's $100 survivors heading into week 12 are:
@scoobus - Give it up for a 6th place finish in week 11
@ZWK - Has beaten the odds with only Goff/Pickett at QB since Lance went out early
@scottybo - 18-player roster with goose eggs at K & D; still managed 170 this week
@rzrback77 - This team will celebrate November 20th as Josh Palmer Day from now on
@bamabuddha - The roster looks more like an infirmary list, but keeps on chugging
@ajm27501 - Can we get a medic for this team too? Mixon, Marquise, Juju, and Goedert
@menobrown - With a duo of Mahomes & Hurts, anything is possible
@apalmer - Gets my vote for best RB corps (Henry, Chubb, Stevenson, Pierce, Benjamin)
We are down to the Elite Eight. Best of luck, folks!

Can we get a moment of silence for our fallen comrades?
@Puppies @Ackme @dbc925
Sorry to see you go. Don't forget about the Subscriber Playoff Contest.
Took a miracle to survive this week. But like Al Michaels in Lake Placid, I believe in miracles! This is about as far as I've ever made it so I'll enjoy what time I have left on this ride.
 
My 28 player roster continues to easily advance. I chalk up this year's success to simply being able to avoid injuries (although looks like Wandale will be of no help going forward).

At this point I believe that only 3 of my 28 players haven't contributed to at least ONE week's total score.. those 3 players are: Trevor Lawrence, Zamir White, and Jameson Williams.

Good luck to everyone in W12
 
AVERAGE WEEKLY SCORES - THROUGH WEEK 11

WK 11
*** SEASON AVERAGE

127.65 ** 173.16 aPalmer
170.25 ** 171.77 Scottybo
138.45 ** 170.53 Wollac
121.30 ** 167.38 Army Eye
197.10 ** 166.82 Scoobus
172.85 ** 166.37 OleMissRebel
128.60 ** 163.41 Bamabuddha
127.75 ** 162.11 Sooted72
134.95 ** 161.80 Menobrown
143.35 ** 159.86 NotSmart
174.95 ** 159.53 FairWarning (y) added 11/22
150.95 ** 158.65 ZWK <== Went from 0.20 below the cut line to +39.60 on Monday night!
125.95 ** 158.57 Dope (y)added 11/23
119.95 ** 158.30 ajm25701 <== Nail-biters of the week....
119.15 ** 157.60 Bill Dauterive <== Nail-biters of the week.... (y) added 11/25
127.05 ** 157.24 da_Budman
123.70 ** 154.90 ChurchofIggyPop
129.05 ** 154.41 rzrback77
120.85 ** 153.59 Chet (y) added 11/22
124.45 ** 151.06 Gottabesweet

The Turk Knocketh..... :cry: (FAILED TO ADVANCE TO WEEK 12)

95.35 *** 159.16 Hagmania
111.55 ** 156.29 Ackme
103.85 ** 155.90 Puppies :cry: (me)
87.50 *** 152.84 Birdie048
94.45 *** 150.94 dbc925
112.15 ** 148.62 BroncosFan07
67.60 *** 144.06 Trilliant

@Dope @Bill Dauterive @chet @FairWarning
 
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My 28 player roster continues to easily advance. I chalk up this year's success to simply being able to avoid injuries (although looks like Wandale will be of no help going forward).

At this point I believe that only 3 of my 28 players haven't contributed to at least ONE week's total score.. those 3 players are: Trevor Lawrence, Zamir White, and Jameson Williams.

Good luck to everyone in W12
Love that gutsy shot at Williams.... I expect him to start playing sooner rather than later. He could be a difference maker should you make it to week13 or 14. Kid has massive upside.
 
AVERAGE WEEKLY SCORES - THROUGH WEEK 11

WK 11
*** SEASON AVERAGE

127.65 ** 173.16 aPalmer
170.25 ** 171.77 Scottybo
138.45 ** 170.53 Wollac
121.30 ** 167.38 Army Eye
197.10 ** 166.82 Scoobus
172.85 ** 166.37 OleMissRebel
128.60 ** 163.41 Bamabuddha
127.75 ** 162.11 Sooted72
134.95 ** 161.80 Menobrown
143.35 ** 159.86 NotSmart
174.95 ** 159.53 FairWarning (y) added 11/22
150.95 ** 158.65 ZWK <== Went from 0.20 below the cut line to +39.60 on Monday night!
119.95 ** 158.30 ajm25701 <== Nail-biter of the week....
127.05 ** 157.24 da_Budman
123.70 ** 154.90 ChurchofIggyPop
129.05 ** 154.41 rzrback77
124.45 ** 151.06 Gottabesweet

The Turk Knocketh..... :cry: (FAILED TO ADVANCE TO WEEK 12)

95.35 *** 159.16 Hagmania
111.55 ** 156.29 Ackme
103.85 ** 155.90 Puppies :cry: (me)
87.50 *** 152.84 Birdie048
94.45 *** 150.94 dbc925
112.15 ** 148.62 BroncosFan07
67.60 *** 144.06 Trilliant
I am right there crying with you @Puppies 😭😭😭😭
Brutal week!
 
Joe's $100 survivors heading into week 12 are:
@scoobus - Give it up for a 6th place finish in week 11
@ZWK - Has beaten the odds with only Goff/Pickett at QB since Lance went out early
@scottybo - 18-player roster with goose eggs at K & D; still managed 170 this week
@rzrback77 - This team will celebrate November 20th as Josh Palmer Day from now on
@bamabuddha - The roster looks more like an infirmary list, but keeps on chugging
@ajm27501 - Can we get a medic for this team too? Mixon, Marquise, Juju, and Goedert
@menobrown - With a duo of Mahomes & Hurts, anything is possible
@apalmer - Gets my vote for best RB corps (Henry, Chubb, Stevenson, Pierce, Benjamin)
We are down to the Elite Eight. Best of luck, folks!

Can we get a moment of silence for our fallen comrades?
@Puppies @Ackme @dbc925
Sorry to see you go. Don't forget about the Subscriber Playoff Contest.
Took a miracle to survive this week. But like Al Michaels in Lake Placid, I believe in miracles! This is about as far as I've ever made it so I'll enjoy what time I have left on this ride.
Week 10-12 has been my failure each of the past few years ... once I failed early (Week 8) but most are 10-12.... Hurts the same every year!
 
For those who like the full-season view, https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest is now loaded with the Week 11 numbers
This view is awesome. @Joe Bryant any chance FBG could incorporate this back into the official contest pages for next year?

I missed the cut by only 1.55 points in week 7, and ignoring a minor 24 point shortfall that would’ve hit me in week 8, I’d still be cruising to a win in this contest! ;)

beside that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?

(yes, I’m still lurking in this thread and quietly cheering you all on)
 
This view is awesome. @Joe Bryant any chance FBG could incorporate this back into the official contest pages for next year?

I missed the cut by only 1.55 points in week 7, and ignoring a minor 24 point shortfall that would’ve hit me in week 8, I’d still be cruising to a win in this contest! ;)

beside that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?

(yes, I’m still lurking in this thread and quietly cheering you all on)

Thanks. That's a @Contest Turk question but we'll take a look there.
 
Week 11 Phantom Standings ..... :ROFLMAO: Just for laughts....

...Are you bummed because your team got bounced early by the Turk?
........Wondering how much your team would have scored this week had you not been eliminated?
..............Well, wonder no more because I've got you covered....

We love this contest so much that we keep playing even after we're eliminated !! :drive: Thank you, Joe Bryant !!

Below are the Week 11 "Phantom Standings" ...for teams that got that early knock on the door and had to turn in their playbook...

Elim#... Score .... Team Name
8 **** 173.65 ** Nittany Lion
8 **** 168.75 ** The Stray Doug
8 **** 166.25 ** BassNBrew
8 **** 148.05 ** Mister CIA Fan
8 **** 147.75 ** Saint
10 *** 146.65 ** Dacomish
8 **** 140.55 ** Hot Sauce Guy
8 **** 133.75 ** cstruck
9 **** 133.15 ** FormerFourDigit
8 **** 129.25 ** QuizGuy66
8 **** 125.15 ** TheWinz
9 **** 118.75 ** Baededel Moon
9 **** 118.65 ** Monty Burns
----- 117.00 ------- Week 11 Cut LIne -----
8 **** 114.25 ** Twin Turbo

9 **** 111.00 ** Stubby
9 **** 105.95 ** Ruffroddys
9 **** 104.65 ** davidwb
10 *** 104.25 ** Irelad

8 ***** 88.35 ** RockAction
9 ***** 84.85 ** dzambo
8 ***** 78.95 ** RustyColts
10 **** 69.35 ** Balco



@nittanylion @Stray Doug @BassNBrew @Mister CIA @Saint @Dacomish @Hot Sauce Guy @cstruk @formerfourdigit @QuizGuy66 @TheWinz @Baeddel Moon @Monty Burns @TwinTurbo @stubby @Ruffrodys05 @davidwb @Irelad @rockaction @dzambo @rustycolts @Balco @Joe Bryant
 
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Week 11 Statistical Trivia ....and other fun with numbers

30 = Roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @ 13.95%
18 = Roster size with the lowest year to date survival rate @ 5.25%

Top 5 through 11 weeks
30 = 13.95%
28 = 13.82%
27 = 13.71%
24 = 12.06%
26 = 11.11%

Bottom 5 through 11 weeks
18 = 5.25 %
19 = 6.53%
20 = 6.77%
22 = 7.68%
21 = 8.25%

Overall Survival rate through 11 weeks is 7.23%
Survival Rate of FBGuys Staff through 11 weeks is 11.11% (all 3 remaining staff members survived week 11)

NOTE: There are NOT any week 12 byes; All 32 NFL teams are active in week 12.

Nail-biter of the week = ajm25701 who made the cut line by 2.95 points
Crushing the cut line = Scoobus, who scored 197.10, crushing the cut line by 80.10 points :drive: <= Posted the 6th highest overall score this week!

Through 11 weeks, 92.77% of the teams that entered the contest have now been eliminated.

Week 12 Statistical odds of making the playoffs = 25.3%, or slightly better than 1 chance in 4.
223 out of 12,254 that started the contest were projected to make the finals; Now it's 224 of the remaining 885.
If you survived week 11, pat yourself on the back. Your statistical odds of making the finals are 1,390% better now, than they were at the start of the contest.

:cry: The Turk knocketh.... :cry: (failed to advance to week 12)

Ackme
Birdie048
BroncosFan07
dbc925
Hagmania
Puppies
Trilliant

Good Luck to everyone else headed to week 12 !!
 
I officially have zero TE. Still one kicker. My time is running out.
Wow, I had one kicker for most of the year, Cade York. But my TE group (Njoku, Hurst, Everett and the milk carton kid; Mo Allie-Cox) really carried me (avg 30.5/week) until the last two weeks when I got less than 6 points per week out of the group. Add that to a week when my RB group sucked , 13.5 pts, and it was hello Mr. Turk.
 
Notable Early News tid-bits heading into week 12.....

PK Randy Bullock (TEN) is uncertain for week 12,......... Will Rodrigo Blankenship possibly get a call ???

QB Baker Mayfiled benched ......... Looks like Sam Darnold will start at QB for Carolina.
QB Matt Stafford is back in the concussion protocol, and has been ruled OUT for week 12.
QB Josh Allen is good to go for week 12.

WR Marquise Brown will likely be back for week 12 for the Arizona Cardinals.
WR Kadarius Toney is banged up again and not practicing

RB Chase Edmunds was placed on Injured Reserve by the Denver Broncos. Marlon Mack will be the main backup to Latavius Murray
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going on injured reserve
 
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Notable Early News tid-bits heading into week 12.....

PK Randy Bullock (TEN) is uncertain for week 12,......... Will Rodrigo Blankenship possibly get a call ???

QB Baker Mayfiled benched ......... Looks like Sam Darnold will start at QB for Carolina.
QB Matt Stafford is back in the concussion protocol, and has been ruled OUT for week 12.
QB Josh Allen is good to go for week 12.

WR Marquise Brown will likely be back for week 12 for the Arizona Cardinals.
WR Kadarius Toney is banged up again and not practicing

RB Chase Edmunds was placed on Injured Reserve by the Denver Broncos. Marlon Mack will be the main backup to Latavius Murray
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going on injured reserve
JuJu full practice...good sign he might clear protocols
 
Y'all ever see a picture of someone staring out a window longingly, staring at something they can't have?

That's me now reading this forum.

EDIT - Going back and reading what was posted immediately prior to mine makes me realize that my timing could not have been worse. I miss the contest. Not flaccidsweatpants.
 

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