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2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

Scoring Update - End of Game Now we wait for the cut line... (was 133.50 going into Monday night)

🎵 (jeopardy music playing.....) 🎵

+11.10 = 126.45 Irelad
+7.00 = 135.25 Balco
+9.20 = 137.50 Dacomish
+7.10 = 141.80 Puppies (Me)
+9.80 = 151.60 dbc925
+6.90 = 148.50 BroncosFan07
+28.55 = 174.65 Army Eye
+11.70 = 159.55 ChurchOfIggyPop
+2.00 = 123.15 Pasquino (FBGuys Staff)
+17.60= 138.55 Woodrow (FBGuys Staff)
 
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My status shows the cut line at 141.20.
I'm at 158.70. :headbang:

Holy crap!! ..... I barely made the cut by just 0.40. (that was too close for comfort)
It sucks that a few of our buds are going to miss the cut this week.


I have to say that I've never seen a more blatant missed call than the one on Washington pulling Goedert down by his face mask, and causing a fumble, and an apparent return TD.
After review, the player was down by contact, so no TD, but they got screwed by the turnover that should have never happened, and that ended up giving Washington a field goal. Philadephia should have retained possession of the ball and should have had a 15 yard tack-on for the personal foul. I'm not an Eagles fan; I'm just calling it like I see it.
 
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No change from the previous week as we finished with the projected 1263 advancing after the week:

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3661 3666
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2563 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1795 1804
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1257 1263
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 880 885
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 616 620
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 370 372
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 224 (this means the top highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)
 
What is the most consistently optimal K strategy: (a) Two premium Ks, (b) Three cheap $3 Ks on three separate bye weeks, or (c) something else?

Given that premiums are so hard to predict from year to year, the cheap kickers seem to win out in this contest. My personal take is go for $3 kickers, but be willing to spend $4 if you don't love the $3s, as they are often sketchy kickers, or on sketchy teams. That extra dollar can go a long way on occasion. And you don't just want to spread their bye weeks but also get guys that don't have byes where you're already weak.
I agree with that, but I also tend to treat kickers and defenses as one position. I try to not only have 3 kickers with different bye weeks, but also to make sure that none of them have the same bye week as any of my defenses. Since I aim for 3 of each, that gives me 5 of them active every week. My target is 18-20 points per week from the K/D position, rather than focus on them individually. I can then balance that K/D position with the rest of my roster the same as any other position. Pricing this year forced me to alter that a little, going with only 2 defenses, but I still focused on having 5 different bye weeks among the two positions and trying to not have any of those byes when I was extremely weak elsewhere.
 
The great news... we only lost 1 team from Joe's $100 contests this week
The bad news... it was @Dacomish

Survivors are: @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @apalmer @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501 @menobrown
Best of luck in week 11, folks!
It was fun and I always enjoy this contest, just wasn't meant to be! @apalmer you have the con now for the sole contributor bonus.....good luck!!
Thanks, and sorry to see you go.
@Joe Bryant , I'm coming for you and your money.
 
Reports are that Eno Benjamin is being cut by AZ. It would be nice to see him get picked up elsewhere, but even if he doesn't, as a $3 lotto ticket he served his purpose, helping me get through the Henry/Chubb/Pierce bye weeks.
No doubt he will be pcked up as long as he is healthy (stranger cut) BUT A will he end up somewhere where it will end up mattering and B, and more importantly, will he end up someplace where he wont screw up your roster construction.
At this point, he won't affect my bye distribution (he's the only RB on my roster who hasn't already had his bye), but he could go into a time-share somewhere that would hurt. I don't see that happening with Henry, Chubb or Pierce, but I wouldn't put it past Hoodie to add him into one of his "who gets the carries this week?" games and drag Stevenson down.
 
Iteration version 48, changed from "Volume" build to select Quality/Elite efforts...

QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/8 - $23
QB - Jared Goff - DET/6 - $9

RB - Travis Etienne - JAX/11 - $22
RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - NE/10 - $15
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/6 - $10
RB - Brian Robinson - WAS/14 - $7

WR - Justin Jefferson - MIN/7 - $35
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/14 - $20
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Christian Kirk - JAX/11 - $16
WR - Kenny Golladay - NYG/9 - $11
WR - D.J. Chark - DET/6 - $7
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/14 - $5

TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/14 - $14
TE - Hunter Henry - NE/10 - $12
TE - Evan Engram - JAX/11 - $9

PK - Dustin Hopkins - LAC/8 - $5
PK - Randy Bullock - TEN/6 - $4

TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/9 - $4
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/6 - $3
HEY @TheWinz --> I went back to look up my $100 Roster from Page 9 (that I edited and removed myself from that competition)...
And I believe it would still be alive! It is scoring an Average of 152.5 pts with Week 8 the closest to the Cut line Scoring 141.55 vs 134.85

It was a rough calculation so I could have easily made a mistake in totaling the scores each week .... Feel free to correct my mistakes...
Just wanted to laugh at the whole thing !
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition [NOTE: corrected typos are in yellow print]

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @18.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Top 5 Through 10 weeks:
27 = 18.78%
28 = 18.70%
30 = 17.05%
26 = 15.48%
23 = 15.43%

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%
19 = 10.11%
20 = 10.79%
22 = 11.46%
21 = 11.52%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.

The overall survival rate of the FootballGuys Staff through 10 weeks is 11.11%

If your team survived the first 10 weeks of the contest, your statistical chances of making the finals are 980% better now than they were at the start of the contest.
224 of the remaining 1263 teams are projected to make the finals.

11 teams remain eligible for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby.

:cry: Sadly... @Dacomish , @Irelad , and @Balco failed to advance to week11.

:wall:Nail biter of the week: @Puppies - making the cut by 0.40 points (or 4 yards by a RB, WR, or QB... or 4 yards by a field goal kicker, or less than 1 catch by a RB)

:drive:Crushing the cut line: @scottybo by 52.20 points



Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!
 
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The discussion on PK and @apalmer post about points he wants out of PK and TD got me thinking about how my first time team was doing. I am averaging 160/week with what I am guessing is pretty good distribution. I would sure feel better with a total closer to 180 (QB 30/ RB 50 / WR 50/ TE 30 / PK 10/ TD 10) but watching how injuries/bad game/byes can decimate a roster in any one week I feel very lucky to have gotten this far. Still gives me a framework to think about next year's roster!

edit: crap! formatting wont hold. You get the idea though

season total scored for me
QB Kirk Cousins- $14 210.80 122.75
QB Derek Carr - $13 186.10 120.65
QB Kenny Pickett - $3 94.95
avg QB/week 24.34
RB Aaron Jones - $27 143.60 100.80
RB Saquon Barkley - $26 163.30 163.30
RB Chase Edmonds - $14 46.00 15.20
RB Michael Carter - $12 83.10 44.90
RB Dameon Pierce - $10 124.80 98.50
avg RB/week 42.27
WR A.J. Brown - $23 152.50 144.60
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 100.80 83.90
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - $17 125.80 105.30
WR Allen Lazard - $12 110.20 93.40
WR Julio Jones - $9 42.50 36.00
avg WR/week 46.32
TE David Njoku - $9 98.20 74.10
TE Hayden Hurst - $8 99.30 83.90
TE Gerald Everett - $8 99.40 92.20
TE Mo Alie-Cox - $6 46.40 29.50
avg TE/week 27.97
PK Cade York - $4 80.50 59.30
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3 19.50 10.00
PK Austin Seibert - $3 24.30 19.30
avg PK/week 8.86
TD Baltimore Ravens - $4 65.00 27.00
TD Minnesota Vikings - $3 68.00 34.00
TD Arizona Cardinals - $3 77.00 49.00
avg TD/week 11.00

AVG. TOTAL/WEEK 160.76
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.


Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Making the cut gets tougher each week... The injuries will add up and compound the Bye week issues creating challenges. I am falling into that trap.

I am in that Bottom 5 with a Roster of 18 and it looks like this week will be a tough challenge to escape the Turk ...:scared:
The Injury bug has crippled my WR Corps leaving me taking a ZERO for 1 of my Flex spots this week.

Only 2 RB - NYG Saq & Hou Dam Pierce (ETN Bye)
Only 2 WR - JJefferson & Pittman (Big Mike, MT & JuJu out for injury)
Only 2 TE - Logan Thomas & Conklin (Engram Bye)

Maybe LAC WR Big Mike Williams will play... maybe?...I don't expect JuJu to make it thru concussion protocols this week.
Maybe Matt Ryan will look at Pittman with "fresh eyes" and feed him?
 
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And I’m out. After finishing top 5 last year I just couldn’t get to final rounds again. I will provide a long analysis later on my thoughts on roster makeup - hope it is helpful and wish I was able to contribute a little more this year. Love this contest and have competed almost every year. I was out in week 2 one year and finished top 5 at my best. Made final rounds another time but did not finish in money.
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.


Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Making the cut gets tougher each week... The injuries will add up and compound the Bye week issues creating challenges. I am falling into that trap.

I am in that Bottom 5 with a Roster of 18 and it looks like this week will be a tough challenge to escape the Turk ...:scared:
The Injury bug has crippled my WR Corps leaving me taking a ZERO for 1 of my Flex spots this week.

Only 2 RB - NYG Saq & Hou Dam

Pierce

(ETN &

Hubbard

on Bye)
Only 2 WR - JJefferson &

Pittman

(Big Mike, MT & JuJu out for injury)
Only 2 TE -

Logan Thomas

&

Conklin

(

Engram

Bye)

Maybe LAC WR Big

Mike Williams

will play... maybe?...I don't expect JuJu to make it thru concussion protocols this week.
Maybe

Matt Ryan

will look at

Pittman

with "fresh eyes" and feed him?
That is a tough one. You are already a man down (if williams doesnt play) If piece blows up that wont help much at all since everybody and his brother owns him. Barkley is better but common owned as well...... Your best bet seems to be your QB and wr's.... good luck man. That is an uphill battle.
 
Yikes - week 11 is going to be a rough one. I think everyone that dresses for the game counts for me except for QB and DEF

QB - Cousins - Playing however highly owned
QB - Carr - Playing however highly owned

RB - Javonte - hurt
RB - Dobbins - hurt
RB - Mostert - bye
RB - J. Wilson - bye
RB - Zamir White - playing but has only scored 1.9 points ALL YEAR and that's including his 2.4 breakout in week 4. He's totalled -0.5 points in the other 8 games. I'll call him OUT
RB - Pierce - playing however highly owned (83%!)


WR - Marvin Jones - bye
WR - DJ Chark - hurt
WR - Romeo Doubs - hurt
WR - Randall Cobb - hurt but could return
WR - DeVante Parker - hurt but should return this week
WR - Elijah Moore - worthless - 1 total target, 0 catches in the last 4 weeks
WR - St. Brown - playing
WR - Lazard - playing
WR - Pickens - playing

TE - Goedert - hurt
TE - Engram - bye
TE - Andrews - hurt but could return

K - Rodrigo - no team
K - Zuerlein - playing

DEF - Vikings, Carolina, and Titans all playing.

Do you believe in miracles? I need one this week since I'll be taking a zero at RB, could be taking a zero at WR and will need all 3 WRs to count, and could be taking a 0 at TE.

I'm feeling confident :ROFLMAO:
 
27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Top 5 Through 10 weeks:
27 = 18.78%
27 = 18.70%
30 = 17.05%
26 = 15.48%
23 = 15.43%

@Puppies two minor nits... you got 27 at 17.78% in your narrative and 18.78% in your list... and a second 27 at #2 in your list (guessing that's probably 25, 28, or 29).

That aside (well, and the other typos), great post per usual. :)
 
I liked Ackme's post, took a look at roster results by position:

QB ($32) - 34.4/week
RB ($78) - 52.0/week... or 16.3 per scoring player (3.2 players/week or 1.2 flexes)
WR ($71) - 37.9/week... or 14.6 per scoring player (2.6 players/week or 0.6 flexes)
TE ($48) - 27.7/week... or 23.0 per scoring player (1.2 players/week or 0.2 flexes)
PK ($10) - 9.9/week
TD ($9) - 9.6/week

Total 171.5/week average
 
27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Top 5 Through 10 weeks:
27 = 18.78%
27 = 18.70%
30 = 17.05%
26 = 15.48%
23 = 15.43%

@Puppies two minor nits... you got 27 at 17.78% in your narrative and 18.78% in your list... and a second 27 at #2 in your list (guessing that's probably 25, 28, or 29).

That aside (well, and the other typos), great post per usual. :)
Thanks for pointing out the typos. I posted in a hurry as I was heading out of town for an NHL hockey game. I’ll check and correct tomorrow. I think it was roster size 27 @ 18.78% and roster 28 in the second spot @ 18.70 %
 
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Some facts about contest D's
- In the last 5 years, LV finished dead last 4 times. In the one season they weren't last (2019), they were 29th. Guess what place they are currently in?
- It blows my mind that the top 4 most common D's from the start are all above $3. None are currently in the top 6, but 3 for $3 are (ARI, MIN, SEA).
- There were 5 D's for $6 each. They are currently ranked 12th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, and tied for 32nd. What a massive waste!
- The average weekly score for a D is 5.74 points. PIT's 23 in week 1 is still tops, but sadly, they only have 24 combined in their next 8 games.
 
Week 11 is uncharted (unchartered?) territory for me. While the strategy was listed dozens of pages ago, here's how I got here. Just in case I want to look it up next year.

Lamar - $19. Used five out of a possible nine times with an average score of around 35 points. That's money well spent.
Goff - $9. Got me 42 points the one week that I did use him, but that was my best week and I'd have cruised through with a zero.
Mariota - $5. Shocker! Used four of nine weeks with an average score of Just over 25 points. Good deal!
Ridder - $4. Not used, but cheap insurance to a cheap and valuable QB.

D Cook - $29 - used in all but one week, not including the bye. For his price relative to the other RBs, he should be. About 17 points per start.
C Edmonds - $14 - Started two of the first three weeks, and has been dead money since, scoring only 17.7 points since week 4.
D Pierce - $10 - 8 of nine weeks used with about 12.5 points per week.
J McKinnon - $8 - Three uses, but low production. Average of 7 points each use. Poor investment.
B Robinson - $7- Hot and cold, but hey - gunshot. 3 of 6 possible weeks for an average of 12 ppg.
Z White - $5 - Ugh. Just Ugh.

Sutton - $19 - started the first five weeks, then one since. Does OK when he plays, scoring 15 ppg.
Juju - $15 - worth the coin despite just four starts. 20 ppg.
I McKenzie $6 - See McKinnon. Must be the Mc. 11 ppg when used.
G Pickens - $6. Looked like a bust out of the gate, but five starts in the last six weeks gives me almost 14 ppg.
Dobbs = $5 - Fire or ice. Just four starts, but almost 15 ppg when he does.

Hockenson - $17 - steady. 7 of 9 (see what I did there) possible starts. Hasn't missed since going to the VIkes. About 17 points per start.
Goedert = $15 - 8 starts of 9. 15 ppg, give or take.
Mo Alie-Cox - $6 - One week, 29 points.
Tommy Tremble - $5 Wanted a cheap fourth productive TE. I got everything but productive. Two starts, 10 ppg.

Boswell - $4 - Four starts, none since week 6. A respectable 12 ppg.
Bullock - $4 - Currently the guy carrying this squad - Six starts, only 7 ppg.
Rodrigo - $3 goose egg.

Niners - $4 Two starts, 15.5 ppg.
Ravens - $4 - Four starts, Just north of 9 ppg.
Vikings - $3 - 11.5 ppg.

So, as I'm typing this, I feel like I'm doing it with smoke and mirrors, and any week the house of cards can come toppling down. But until then, I'm enjoying the ride!
 
Survived another week, now through week 10 (previously: preseason, wk6)

Pos Player $$ St StarterPts
QB Trey Lance $15 0 0
QB Jared Goff $9 6 161.5
QB Kenny Pickett $3 4 66.2
RB Christian McCaffrey $37 8 150.5
RB Chase Edmonds $14 3 27.8
RB Dameon Pierce $10 8 120.4
RB Jeff Wilson $3 5 80.4
RB Zack Moss $3 0 0
WR Justin Jefferson $35 8 203.05
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster $15 4 80.4
WR Elijah Moore $13 1 6.5
WR Jameson Williams $7 0 0
WR George Pickens $6 4 63.1
WR Josh Palmer $6 4 62.2
WR Isaiah McKenzie $6 3 39.1
WR Zay Jones $5 5 67.3
WR WanDale Robinson $5 2 23.7
WR Romeo Doubs $5 3 53.2
WR Velus Jones $3 1 7.9
TE George Kittle $18 5 80.5
TE Gerald Everett $8 6 81.8
TE Kyle Rudolph $3 0 0
PK Graham Gano $3 5 57.3
PK Rodrigo Blankenship $3 1 9.5
PK Greg Zuerlein $3 4 50.8
TD Minnesota Vikings $3 2 26
TD Detroit Lions $3 0 0
TD Arizona Cardinals $3 5 53
TD Tennessee Titans $3 3 23

I've started 24 of 29 players and $219 out of $250. Averaging 159.5 ppg.

My team has been pretty steady, with every week except for one big one between 143 and 166. Doesn't look like championship material, but it's enough to leave me in the running for Joe's bonus prize.
 
Team rzrback77 going to be a challenge this week.

QB - Have three going, so hopeful that one can outproduce projections - Cousins 16.7, Carr 14.2 and Pickett 14.3

RB - Very short handed as Wilson, Edmonds & Gainwell on bye, but have Stevenson 17.8, Pierce 15.1 and E. Mitchell 9.3, need two solid scores and would appreciate a third

WR - More bullets in the gun here - St. Brown 15.4, Sutton 14.4, Palmer 14.2, Pickens 10.3, McKenzie 7.5, Dotson 7.2 and JuJu and Hamler

TE - Flying Hockenson solo with Goedert out and Okwuegwhatever missing altogether

PK - Graham Gano solo

DST - Vikings, Cardinals and NY Giants

The combination of all of my high projected scorers results in 135.3, which would probably come up short. Four team on bye including some solid offenses in Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.
 
My FBG projections (as of now) for the week:

Allen (32.9), Pickett (19.8), Trubisky

Henry (17.7), Stevenson (15.8), Chubb (15.2), Pierce (13.9), Benjamin (0.5)

ARSB (15.4), Sutton (14.4), Pickens (10.3), JuJu (3.9), Edwards (0.6), Zay Jones

Hockenson (16.6), Schulz (11.3), Goedert

Gano (7.9), Fairbairn (6.4), Blankenship

AZ (6.4), Minn (6.3)

Total: 156.2

Between byes and the wave of injuries around the league, I'm thinking that should make the cut, but you never know. Losing Goedert hurts, but at least he got me to the point where Hock and Schultz look like reasonably reliable contributors and maybe he can be back for the finals if I'm lucky enough to get there. It would be great to get JuJu back to help my underperforming WRs.
 
My FBG projections (as of now) for the week:

Allen (32.9), Pickett (19.8), Trubisky

Henry (17.7), Stevenson (15.8), Chubb (15.2), Pierce (13.9), Benjamin (0.5)

ARSB (15.4), Sutton (14.4), Pickens (10.3), JuJu (3.9), Edwards (0.6), Zay Jones

Hockenson (16.6), Schulz (11.3), Goedert

Gano (7.9), Fairbairn (6.4), Blankenship

AZ (6.4), Minn (6.3)

Total: 156.2

Between byes and the wave of injuries around the league, I'm thinking that should make the cut, but you never know. Losing Goedert hurts, but at least he got me to the point where Hock and Schultz look like reasonably reliable contributors and maybe he can be back for the finals if I'm lucky enough to get there. It would be great to get JuJu back to help my underperforming WRs.

Very solid looking team here as you can afford for a few of your guys to swing and miss and still have the others pick you up
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.


Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Making the cut gets tougher each week... The injuries will add up and compound the Bye week issues creating challenges. I am falling into that trap.

I am in that Bottom 5 with a Roster of 18 and it looks like this week will be a tough challenge to escape the Turk ...:scared:
The Injury bug has crippled my WR Corps leaving me taking a ZERO for 1 of my Flex spots this week.

Only 2 RB - NYG Saq & Hou Dam

Pierce

(ETN &

Hubbard

on Bye)
Only 2 WR - JJefferson &

Pittman

(Big Mike, MT & JuJu out for injury)
Only 2 TE -

Logan Thomas

&

Conklin

(

Engram

Bye)

Maybe LAC WR Big

Mike Williams

will play... maybe?...I don't expect JuJu to make it thru concussion protocols this week.
Maybe

Matt Ryan

will look at

Pittman

with "fresh eyes" and feed him?
That is a tough one. You are already a man down (if williams doesnt play) If piece blows up that wont help much at all since everybody and his brother owns him. Barkley is better but common owned as well...... Your best bet seems to be your QB and wr's.... good luck man. That is an uphill battle.
I looked at the "analyzer" and ran the key players I have going .... what are the odds of me advancing to next week?

QB Duo - Herbert & Cousins = 105 owners at start 13 still kicking for 12.4% survival
RB - Barkley = 2587 teams --> 411 still alive for 15.9%
RB - Dam Pierce = 7281 owners --> 1036 still alive 14.2%
WR = Justin Jefferson = 1862 owners --> 284 still pushing the cart uphill for 15.2%
WR = Pittman = 1810 owners --> 188 still squeaking by 10.4%
TE = Conklin = 234 owners --> 43 still cheering Go Gang Green 18.4%
TE = Logan Thomas = 326 owners --> only 14 still carrying the torch 4.3%

So my QB's and TE's have the smallest ownership and his impact can have a significant value to my chances!!
I am the only team with all 4 of these still alive
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition [NOTE: corrected typos are in yellow print]

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @18.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Top 5 Through 10 weeks:
27 = 18.78%
28 = 18.70%
30 = 17.05%
26 = 15.48%
23 = 15.43%

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%
19 = 10.11%
20 = 10.79%
22 = 11.46%
21 = 11.52%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.

The overall survival rate of the FootballGuys Staff through 10 weeks is 11.11%

If your team survived the first 10 weeks of the contest, your statistical chances of making the finals are 980% better now than they were at the start of the contest.
224 of the remaining 1263 teams are projected to make the finals.

11 teams remain eligible for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby.

:cry: Sadly... @Dacomish , @Irelad , and @Balco failed to advance to week11.

:wall:Nail biter of the week: @Puppies - making the cut by 0.40 points (or 4 yards by a RB, WR, or QB... or 4 yards by a field goal kicker, or less than 1 catch by a RB)

:drive:Crushing the cut line: @scottybo by 52.20 points



Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Sorry for the 2 typos in the orginal post. And thank you @Stray Doug for alerting me about it. The two typos have been corrected and appear above, in yellow text.
 
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Average Weekly Scores - Through 10 Weeks: (Points mean absolutely nothing unless your team survives week 14)

177.71 aPalmer :drive:
173.74 wollac (added 11/17)
171.99 Army Eye
171.93 ScottyBo
166.89 Bamabuddha
165.89 OleMissRebel
165.55 Sooted72
165.55 Hagmania
164.49 Menobrown
163.80 Scoobus
162.13 ajm25701
161.51 AAAAA Bail Bonds
161.11 Puppies (me)
160.76 Ackme
160.26 da_Budman
159.42 ZWK
159.37 Birdie048
158.02 ChurchOfIggyPop
156.95 rzrback77
156.59 dbc925
153.73 Gottabesweet
152.27 BroncosFan07
151.71 Trilliant

Failed to Advance: :cry: the "Turk" knocketh....

170.27 Dacomish
161.84 Balco
160.58 Irelad

It really sucks to be eliminated, and I'm guessing I'll be on the bottom part of this list next week.
I'm without key players due to injury, and also due to starters being relegated to time-shares, and also because some of my players just plain suck.
I'll be very surprised if Puppies survive week 11, and feel that my chances to make it to the playoffs are virtually nil at this point.

To those teams above who are still alive, Good luck in week 11 and beyond! If I get booted, I'll still lurk and post a bit.
 
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It really sucks to be eliminated, and I'm guessing I'll be on the bottom part of this list next week.
I'm without key players due to injury, and also due to starters being relegated to time-shares, and also because some of my players just plain suck.

I'll be very surprised if Puppies survive week 11, and feel that my chances to make it to the playoffs are virtually nil at this point.

To those teams above who are still alive, Good luck in week 11 and beyond! If I get booted, I'll still lurk and post a bit.
YOU AND ME BOTH! The combination of injuries and Bye week is significant to many!
If you have escaped the fate of many, consider yourself fortunate! And go play the Lottery!
 
Hello everyone! I haven't been active on the board this year. Looking to change that going forward. Finished in 12th place last year. Still alive this year and looking forward to the rest of the season.
 
Average Weekly Scores - Through 10 Weeks: (Points mean absolutely nothing unless your team survives week 14)

177.71 aPalmer :drive:
171.99 Army Eye
171.93 ScottyBo
166.89 BBamabuddha
165.89 OleMissRebel
165.55 Sooted72
165.55 Hagmania
164.49 Menobrown
163.80 Scoobus
162.13 ajm25701
161.51 AAAAA Bail Bonds
161.11 Puppies (me)
160.76 Ackme
160.26 da_Budman
159.42 ZWK
159.37 Birdie048
158.02 ChurchOfIggyPop
156.95 rzrback77
156.59 dbc925
153.73 Gottabesweet
152.27 BroncosFan07
151.71 Trilliant

Failed to Advance: :cry: the "Turk" knocketh....

170.27 Dacomish
161.84 Balco
160.58 Irelad

It really sucks to be eliminated, and I'm guessing I'll be on the bottom part of this list next week.
I'm without key players due to injury, and also due to starters being relegated to time-shares, and also because some of my players just plain suck.
I'll be very surprised if Puppies survive week 11, and feel that my chances to make it to the playoffs are virtually nil at this point.

To those teams above who are still alive, Good luck in week 11 and beyond! If I get booted, I'll still lurk and post a bit.
I was 5th from the bottom when I joined this study....Ive moved up 4 spots. Hope I make it even further but if I dont outlasting 90% of the contestants is not too shabby.
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.


Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Making the cut gets tougher each week... The injuries will add up and compound the Bye week issues creating challenges. I am falling into that trap.

I am in that Bottom 5 with a Roster of 18 and it looks like this week will be a tough challenge to escape the Turk ...:scared:
The Injury bug has crippled my WR Corps leaving me taking a ZERO for 1 of my Flex spots this week.

Only 2 RB - NYG Saq & Hou Dam

Pierce

(ETN &

Hubbard

on Bye)
Only 2 WR - JJefferson &

Pittman

(Big Mike, MT & JuJu out for injury)
Only 2 TE -

Logan Thomas

&

Conklin

(

Engram

Bye)

Maybe LAC WR Big

Mike Williams

will play... maybe?...I don't expect JuJu to make it thru concussion protocols this week.
Maybe

Matt Ryan

will look at

Pittman

with "fresh eyes" and feed him?
That is a tough one. You are already a man down (if williams doesnt play) If piece blows up that wont help much at all since everybody and his brother owns him. Barkley is better but common owned as well...... Your best bet seems to be your QB and wr's.... good luck man. That is an uphill battle.
I looked at the "analyzer" and ran the key players I have going .... what are the odds of me advancing to next week?

QB Duo - Herbert & Cousins = 105 owners at start 13 still kicking for 12.4% survival
RB - Barkley = 2587 teams --> 411 still alive for 15.9%
RB - Dam Pierce = 7281 owners --> 1036 still alive 14.2%
WR = Justin Jefferson = 1862 owners --> 284 still pushing the cart uphill for 15.2%
WR = Pittman = 1810 owners --> 188 still squeaking by 10.4%
TE = Conklin = 234 owners --> 43 still cheering Go Gang Green 18.4%
TE = Logan Thomas = 326 owners --> only 14 still carrying the torch 4.3%

So my QB's and TE's have the smallest ownership and his impact can have a significant value to my chances!!
I am the only team with all 4 of these still alive
Just a reminder, but when I looked at the top 5-7 players owned I couldn't find a team with all of them. I would say every team left could pick four players on their roster with 3 of them not being in the top 10% of ownership and and say I am the only team with all 4 of these still alive

Every team is is unique.
There are just to few entires and too many player options available that being "unique" even factors into the equation.

Rooting for you this week. It really comes down to a couple of guys popping and every man on deck not laying a turd.
 
My FBG projections (as of now) for the week:

Allen (32.9), Pickett (19.8), Trubisky

Henry (17.7), Stevenson (15.8), Chubb (15.2), Pierce (13.9), Benjamin (0.5)

ARSB (15.4), Sutton (14.4), Pickens (10.3), JuJu (3.9), Edwards (0.6), Zay Jones

Hockenson (16.6), Schulz (11.3), Goedert

Gano (7.9), Fairbairn (6.4), Blankenship

AZ (6.4), Minn (6.3)

Total: 156.2

Between byes and the wave of injuries around the league, I'm thinking that should make the cut, but you never know. Losing Goedert hurts, but at least he got me to the point where Hock and Schultz look like reasonably reliable contributors and maybe he can be back for the finals if I'm lucky enough to get there. It would be great to get JuJu back to help my underperforming WRs.

I really like this rooster. I think all of these guys were on one or another early iteration. Nice job settling on this group.
 
VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

Cap $GamesPointsPoints/$Average
QB$69221.5536.9324.62Geno Smith
QB$59180.4536.0920.05Marcus Mariotta
QB$36127.5542.5221.26Andy Dalton
QB$77154.8522.1222.12Jimmy Garoppolo
QB$78156.3022.3319.54Jacoby Brisette
RB$248162.106.7520.26Nick Chubb
RB$198140.007.3717.50Josh Jacobs
RB$159132.008.8014.67Rhomande Stevenson
RB$108111.6011.1613.95Dameon Pierce
RB$9997.9010.8810.88Khalil Herbert
WR$139134.8010.3714.98Tyler Lockett
WR$59120.7024.1413.41Curtis Samuel
WR$119115.8510.5312.87Tyler Boyd
WR$78112.7016.1014.09Jameson Williams
WR$7893.8013.4011.73Necole Hardman
WR$6986.3014.389.59Devin Duvernay
WR$5882.0016.4010.25Zay Jones
TE$8999.3012.4111.03Hayden Hurst
TE$7899.0014.1412.38Ty Colklin
TE$9798.2010.9114.03David Njoku
TE$8894.1011.7611.76Gerald Everett
TE$5887.4517.4910.93Taysom Hill
PK$4996.5024.1310.72Jason Myers
PK$3884.2028.0710.53Graham Gano
PK$3985.2028.409.47Greg Zuerlein
PK$3870.5023.508.81Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK$3868.3022.778.54Cairo Santos
DEF$3970.0023.337.78Arizona Cardinals
DEF$3969.0023.007.67Seattle Seahawks
DEF$3960.0020.006.67NY Jets
DEF$3856.0018.677.00Atlanta Falcons
DEF$3853.0017.676.63Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG


Every team is is unique.

I'm not.









:scared:
 
STASTICAL TRIVIA and other ramblings.... Week 10 Edition

27 = The roster size with the highest year to date survival rate @17.78% (top 5 for 8 of the last 10 weeks and #1 in three of those weeks)
18 = The roster sizw with the lowest year to date survival rate @7.11% (lowest for 7 weeks in a row)

Bottom 5 Through 10 Weeks: :tfp:
18 = 7.11%

The overall survival rate for all teams through 10 weeks is 10.31%. The rate is skewed toward smaller roster teams besause there are far more of them
than there are large roster teams.


Good luck to the survivors as we look forward to week 11!

Making the cut gets tougher each week... The injuries will add up and compound the Bye week issues creating challenges. I am falling into that trap.

I am in that Bottom 5 with a Roster of 18 and it looks like this week will be a tough challenge to escape the Turk ...:scared:
The Injury bug has crippled my WR Corps leaving me taking a ZERO for 1 of my Flex spots this week.

Only 2 RB - NYG Saq & Hou Dam

Pierce

(ETN &

Hubbard

on Bye)
Only 2 WR - JJefferson &

Pittman

(Big Mike, MT & JuJu out for injury)
Only 2 TE -

Logan Thomas

&

Conklin

(

Engram

Bye)

Maybe LAC WR Big

Mike Williams

will play... maybe?...I don't expect JuJu to make it thru concussion protocols this week.
Maybe

Matt Ryan

will look at

Pittman

with "fresh eyes" and feed him?
That is a tough one. You are already a man down (if williams doesnt play) If piece blows up that wont help much at all since everybody and his brother owns him. Barkley is better but common owned as well...... Your best bet seems to be your QB and wr's.... good luck man. That is an uphill battle.
I looked at the "analyzer" and ran the key players I have going .... what are the odds of me advancing to next week?

QB Duo - Herbert & Cousins = 105 owners at start 13 still kicking for 12.4% survival
RB - Barkley = 2587 teams --> 411 still alive for 15.9%
RB - Dam Pierce = 7281 owners --> 1036 still alive 14.2%
WR = Justin Jefferson = 1862 owners --> 284 still pushing the cart uphill for 15.2%
WR = Pittman = 1810 owners --> 188 still squeaking by 10.4%
TE = Conklin = 234 owners --> 43 still cheering Go Gang Green 18.4%
TE = Logan Thomas = 326 owners --> only 14 still carrying the torch 4.3%

So my QB's and TE's have the smallest ownership and his impact can have a significant value to my chances!!
I am the only team with all 4 of these still alive
Just a reminder, but when I looked at the top 5-7 players owned I couldn't find a team with all of them. I would say every team left could pick four players on their roster with 3 of them not being in the top 10% of ownership and and say I am the only team with all 4 of these still alive

Every team is is unique.
There are just to few entires and too many player options available that being "unique" even factors into the equation.

Rooting for you this week. It really comes down to a couple of guys popping and every man on deck not laying a turd.
Thanks but I was only looking at the starting players I have currently and their ownership
 
Most of the players with the highest ownership are the ones who had moderate or low cap numbers, and then had a strong
pre-season, or saw competing players get cut, and therefore had high stat projections on Footballguys as a result.

As we go through multiple iterations of our lineup before live date, trying to assemble the magic team that can survive to the
playoffs, we always look for value. A high stat projection without a corresponding high cap number is the very definition of
value for the purposes of this contest. The degree to which a particular owner believes the stat projection for each of those
individual players determines to a large degree which of them end up on his roster. Obviously there are also constraints
related to bye weeks, and constraints related to available cap space after settling on other players that are more expensive,
but desirable to the individual owner.

As we have seen this season, even if you assemble the perfect team, your fate will likely be determined more by injuries than
any other single factor.

If you are lucky enough avoid injuries, your fate might also be affected by players being traded, or players who were previously
starters being relegated to time shares (Fournette, Edwards-Helaire).

There was nothing above that you just read that you didn’t already know. Truth be told, you love the challenge as much as I do,
and that’s why we all come back here every year to play again, in spite of our disappointments.
 
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Ladies and gentlemen we have an Austin Hooper sighting. Raise your hand if this dud is on your team. 🖐:biggrin: 20 + points already.....Comes at a good time for me Goedert falld down and went boom.
 
Congrats to those 54 still alive who "wasted" the 5 bucks on Watson..... I wasted my 5 bucks on Cobb instead.

If it makes you feel any better, I spent 4 times as much ($20) on A.J. Dillon, and he is averaging a point per game less than Randall Cobb through 10 weeks, and that's not counting Cobb's 13.30 last night.
 
13.3 for
Cobb
isn’t a bad use of $5 either

Congrats to those 54 still alive who "wasted" the 5 bucks on Watson..... I wasted my 5 bucks on Cobb instead.

If it makes you feel any better, I spent 4 times as much ($20) on A.J. Dillon, and he is averaging a point per game less than Randall Cobb through 10 weeks, and that's not counting Cobb's 13.30 last night.
With the lack of wrs I would have swore both Dillon and Jones would do well this year. Sometimes things just dodnt work out how we (or the experts) expect them to.
 
Just perusing through my rosters and scores some things I like and some I dont.
I have the combo of cousins and carr..... on the one hand I am happy to have usedeach 5 times (meaning neither have been a dud) But on the other hand I wish they werent scoring pretty much the same score week after week. With the exception of one week where Cousins scored 31 there have been no boom/busts combinations which does you well in best ball.

RB
Kamara has been pretty underwhelming for a first rb and Mitchell has been mostly hurt....On the brighter side I am one of the 3 trillion Pierce owners who has scored for me except 1 (oddly a 18.8 week)
Stevnson has been my steady Eddie , So far gunshot robinson has been a fine 7 dollar player and 3 bucks for Wilson is the best bang for the buck player on my roster.

WR
Bateman being done for the year is a crusher and my best wr
Metcalf had that big scare but has been my most steady wr
Hopkins was a chance not that many took and thus far he has been a stud..... Injury?
Lazard for 12 bucks has been a most week scorer..
Cobb has been mostly a waste but he came off the ir this week and did fine for a 5 buck player.
Pickens for 6 bucks has been a great value. If only Pitt can find a way to score more often he might be studly

TE is where I went heavy money spent and hoped for minimum 1 flex per week
Schultz, when he has been healthy, has been as good as advertised
Goedert has been studly.....till this week when he went on IR,,,,
Hurst for 8 bucks has been fine value scoring 6/9 weeks with the other 2/3 weeks scoring over 10 points
Hooper has been my dud wr since Tenn runs the ball about a billion times a week. Good to see you show out this week mr hooper!~!~
Tayson Hill has only scored twice but when he scores he really scores. He is the perfect low dollar player in best ball.

Kickers:
I have 4,3,3 dollar kickers. Meyers, fairbarn, and zeirlein All still have jobs and none have been injured (knock on wood)
they have scored 4,4,2 times and even the 2 times scorer scored 18.5 and 10.2 Not a single score less than 10 points I am over the moon happy

Defense:
trio of 3 buck chucks
Minn/Az/Tenn
similar to my kickers 2/4/4 times used. Minn 2 scores are 10 and 16
with the exception of a 3 point and 5 point score everything else has been 9 and above. There might be better $9 combos but I bet not many

Overall Im hoping for more 35 point scores from 2 qbs good receivers A little less consistency in a best ball format could help. cant complain about injuries because we all have them. Week 14,if I am lucky enough to make it that far, will be my rough Bye week week ...
Overall I am happy with my team but doubt I have enough studs to win the whole think
 

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