2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (1 Viewer)

[Birdie048]

Sitting at 122.65 (Counted 18.8 for Juju) Curious what the cut line is after last night.

I still have Duvernay and Olave counting
One replaces a 0.0 and the other potentially a 3.20

fingers crossed.

Good Luck ...

If I count the 18.8 for Ju-Ju I am at 129.55 and it expect the 111.40 cut line to jump some to 115 range since they are popular players ..
if there are no Defenses showing up on MNF, maybe up to 124-125 range? Otherwise, it should stay in the low 120-121 range. 6 point shift is a lot I believe ..

 

[Irelad]

No Fields, no Mixon, no problem! Sitting pretty at 141.05 with Kelce (-4.3) and Juju (-5.6) still to add. Plus I won in all 4 of my standard leagues this week, LET'S GO!!!

 

[hagmania]

No math, just intuition: the cut line comes in under 120.

Oh wait, is SNF not included in the current calc? Yeah scratch that.

 

[Puppies]

Sitting at 122.65 (Counted 18.8 for Juju) Curious what the cut line is after last night.

I still have Duvernay and Olave counting
One replaces a 0.0 and the other potentially a 3.20

fingers crossed.

You should be fine. I have you at 130.05 with Juju counting for his full 18.8 and McKinnon adding 7.4 (replacing your 0 flex)

Nobody knows but I don't expect the cut line to be much higher than the mid 120's

 

[scottybo]

Only 5 players from SNF should have a large effect on the cut line (Henry, Mahomes, Hardman, Kelce and Smith-Schuster).

Just guessing the line will sit between 116-122 and probably on the lower end of that.

Mahomes (39.3) - 71 teams
Henry (23.5) - 205 teams
Hardman (19.9) - 130 teams
Smith-Schuster (18.8) - 617 teams
Kelce (25.6) - 226 teams

 

[Puppies]

RE: CUT LINE

This is just a dart throw, but factoring in last nights scoring in the KC - Tenneseee game, and tonight's potential line-movers....

Ravens DEF - 491 teams
Lamar - 400 teams
Olave - 347 teams
Kamara- 296 teams
T. Hill - 231 teams
J. Landry - 65 teams
Duvernay - 39 teams
Andrews =OUT= (166 teams)

You are probably safe if you're in the upper 120's or higher.

 

[Puppies]

Sitting at 122.65 (Counted 18.8 for Juju) Curious what the cut line is after last night.

I still have Duvernay and Olave counting
One replaces a 0.0 and the other potentially a 3.20

fingers crossed.

Good Luck ...

If I count the 18.8 for Ju-Ju I am at 129.55 and it expect the 111.40 cut line to jump some to 115 range since they are popular players ..
if there are no Defenses showing up on MNF, maybe up to 124-125 range? Otherwise, it should stay in the low 120-121 range. 6 point shift is a lot I believe ..

It will be interesting to see. Keep in mind that with fewer teams in the contest week by week, and especially with 6 teams on BYE, my thinking is the Sunday Night scores will have a larger impact than the past. When you look at the ownership numbers, keep in mind that (for example... 491 teams having the Raven's defense is 491 our of 2569 live teams or 19% of the teams still alive; Not 491 of the 12.254 teams we started with). There are likely a lot more zeros to replace with six teams on Bye. I would love to see them post an update before tonight's game so we could see how much that one game moves the cut line. I'm guessing mid 120's for the final cut, but that's just a wild-a$$ guess. It could go higher if the Raven's defense goes off the rails (491 teams)

 

[Gottabesweet]

Sitting at 122.65 (Counted 18.8 for Juju) Curious what the cut line is after last night.

I still have Duvernay and Olave counting
One replaces a 0.0 and the other potentially a 3.20

fingers crossed.

Good Luck ...

If I count the 18.8 for Ju-Ju I am at 129.55 and it expect the 111.40 cut line to jump some to 115 range since they are popular players ..
if there are no Defenses showing up on MNF, maybe up to 124-125 range? Otherwise, it should stay in the low 120-121 range. 6 point shift is a lot I believe ..

It will be interesting to see. Keep in mind that with fewer teams in the contest week by week, and especially with 6 teams on BYE, my thinking is the Sunday Night scores will have a larger impact than the past. When you look at the ownership numbers, keep in mind that (for example... 491 teams having the Raven's defense is 491 our of 2569 live teams or 19% of the teams still alive; Not 491 of the 12.254 teams we started with). There are likely a lot more zeros to replace with six teams on Bye. I would love to see them post an update before tonight's game so we could see how much that one game moves the cut line. I'm guessing mid 120's for the final cut, but that's just a wild-a$$ guess. It could go higher if the Raven's defense goes off the rails (491 teams)

Thank you for the calculation. I was surprised to not see the SNF football calculated this morning, is that normal? I guess I haven't really checked/noticed.

 

[Puppies]

Sitting at 122.65 (Counted 18.8 for Juju) Curious what the cut line is after last night.

I still have Duvernay and Olave counting
One replaces a 0.0 and the other potentially a 3.20

fingers crossed.

Good Luck ...

If I count the 18.8 for Ju-Ju I am at 129.55 and it expect the 111.40 cut line to jump some to 115 range since they are popular players ..
if there are no Defenses showing up on MNF, maybe up to 124-125 range? Otherwise, it should stay in the low 120-121 range. 6 point shift is a lot I believe ..

It will be interesting to see. Keep in mind that with fewer teams in the contest week by week, and especially with 6 teams on BYE, my thinking is the Sunday Night scores will have a larger impact than the past. When you look at the ownership numbers, keep in mind that (for example... 491 teams having the Raven's defense is 491 our of 2569 live teams or 19% of the teams still alive; Not 491 of the 12.254 teams we started with). There are likely a lot more zeros to replace with six teams on Bye. I would love to see them post an update before tonight's game so we could see how much that one game moves the cut line. I'm guessing mid 120's for the final cut, but that's just a wild-a$$ guess. It could go higher if the Raven's defense goes off the rails (491 teams)

Thank you for the calculation. I was surprised to not see the SNF football calculated this morning, is that normal? I guess I haven't really checked/noticed.

Usually the standings get updated within an hour or so of the end of the 1pm and 4pm games, and then again about an hour or hour and a half after the end of the Sunday night game. For example, last week, the update was posted at 12:15am and in week 7 it was posted at 1:07am. For some reason, there was never an update after the 1pm games ended this week, and the 4pm update was posted while the 8pm game was in overtime. I thought we might see an update this morning, including the 8 pm results, but so far we have not seen it.

I like to track the cut line at each interval week to week, so I can look back and get a feel for what we might expect going forward. This week threw a wrench into that effort.

Last week, I was feeling silly, so I looked up and tracked every team in our group that was under the cut line or less than 10 points over it, and recorded all their remaining players and minus values to replace, then put it all in a spread sheet and tracked everyone's progress in real time, keying individual player's scores during the Monday night game into the spreadsheet as they happened. I posted real time updated team scores for all of them at the end of each quarter in the Monday night game. Call me crazy, but it was a fun project.

The most notable change during the Monday night game was @scottybo moving from 7.85 points under the cut line, to 22.60 points over it. Then the cut line only moved 4.85 points as a result of the Monday night game, so he was safe by a wide margin.

 

[Puppies]

Fantasy tid-bits to watch....

Frank Reich fired as Indianapolis head coach - He was also the play caller. So maybe there could be some relief coming for owners of Colts players going foward.

Aaron Jones ankle injury - Scans were clean but no guarantee he'll play week 10. Maybe some relief for A.J. Dillon owners, who could use a little more output from him going foward.

Romeo Dobbs high ankle sprain (will miss time) - Maybe some additional targets for Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan.

Relief for Jeff Wilson owners, who appears to have the confidence of the Miami coaches, based on his target share and production in his first game there.

Cordarelle Patterson is back. Nice output in this first game back from injury.

Watching the Kansas City Chiefs - Tennessee Titans game last night, I couldn't help but be glad that the Steelers drafted Kenny PIckett rather than Malik Willis. Willis will likely develop into a decent QB, but he's not close right now, imho.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Fantasy tid-bits to watch....

Frank Reich fired as Indianapolis head coach - He was also the play caller. So maybe there could be some relief coming for owners of Colts players going foward.

Aaron Jones ankle injury - Scans were clean but no guarantee he'll play week 10. Maybe some relief for A.J. Dillon owners, who could use a little more output from him going foward.

Romeo Dobbs high ankle sprain (will miss time) - Maybe some additional targets for Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan.

Relief for Jeff Wilson owners, who appears to have the confidence of the Miami coaches, based on his target share and production in his first game there.

Cordarelle Patterson is back. Nice output in this first game back from injury.

Watching the Kansas City Chiefs - Tennessee Titans game last night, I couldn't help but be glad that the Steelers drafted Kenny PIckett rather than Malik Willis. Willis will likely develop into a decent QB, but he's not close right now, imho.

Deon Jackson hurt. Taylor still banged up, maybe newly acquired Zack Moss will chip in. I have him lol. Wishful thinking.

 

[bamabuddha]

Survued a few on bye and a few suffering due to injuries…on to next week! Kmet finally did something for me!

 

[trilliant]

Hoping for a SNF score update here before MNF. Fingers crossed that I'm not a victim of "bye-mageddon" this week.

 

[Saint]

Well... my eliminated team is sitting at 136.65 right now... where was that shiznit last week?!?!

 

[Kneel4themeal]

I’m at 138.85 , need to add JuJu still and have Lamar tonight hopefully our scoring 19 points. Should be safe for another week!

 

[rustycolts]

Well proud to say I would have been just as eliminated this week as I was last week. No TEs will do that to you.

 

[trilliant]

Still no update to scores from Sunday night game -- any of the data hawks here crunch it themselves and determine a cut-off going into MNF tonight?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Fantasy tid-bits to watch....

Frank Reich fired as Indianapolis head coach - He was also the play caller. So maybe there could be some relief coming for owners of Colts players going foward.

Maybe our guy Rodrigo can get his job back

-QG

 

[Puppies]

126.25 is the Final Cut line.
Looks like I pretty much nailed it with my guess.

 

[TheWinz]

Joe's contest teams lost 3 more this week: @dzambo @Monty Burns @Ruffrodys05

How about a hand to the 12 still remaining? @apalmer @Dacomish @menobrown @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501

 

[Gottabesweet]

Shouldn’t Mckinnon be 10.4? It shows 7.4. 6 for 40 rec. 4 rushing.

 

[BassNBrew]

Shouldn’t Mckinnon be 10.4? It shows 7.4. 6 for 40 rec. 4 rushing.

1/2 pt per recpt for RB

 

[BassNBrew]

Joe's contest teams lost 3 more this week: @dzambo @Monty Burns @Ruffrodys05

How about a hand to the 12 still remaining? @apalmer @Dacomish @menobrown @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501

Congrats guys.

Given his success, next year I just copy @menobrown rooster.

 

[apalmer]

Joe's contest teams lost 3 more this week: @dzambo @Monty Burns @Ruffrodys05

How about a hand to the 12 still remaining? @apalmer @Dacomish @menobrown @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501

However, just when I thought I could relax a little being through nearly all of my significant bye weeks, I now need to worry about Josh Allen's elbow. The play looked a lot like the one that ended Big Ben's season a couple of years ago and I'm not sure Kenny is ready to lead my team the rest of the way.

 

[FairWarning]

Joe's contest teams lost 3 more this week: @dzambo @Monty Burns @Ruffrodys05

How about a hand to the 12 still remaining? @apalmer @Dacomish @menobrown @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501

However, just when I thought I could relax a little being through nearly all of my significant bye weeks, I now need to worry about Josh Allen's elbow. The play looked a lot like the one that ended Big Ben's season a couple of years ago and I'm not sure Kenny is ready to lead my team the rest of the way.

It’s an injury that I’m surprised doesn’t happen more.

 

[Birdie048]

Joe's contest teams lost 3 more this week: @dzambo @Monty Burns @Ruffrodys05

How about a hand to the 12 still remaining? @apalmer @Dacomish @menobrown @scoobus @ZWK @scottybo @rzrback77 @Puppies @bamabuddha @Ackme @dbc925 @ajm27501

I am going to have to go back to see if my "Old Joe Roster" would still be alive....

Current Roster Survived this week.... BARELY! 129.55

 

[Ackme]

On to Cleveland ....or week 10 whichever comes first.

 

[Dacomish]

OK Looks like after the to cuts this week bumped the after week 14 number up a spot, a few more weeks where the remaining live entries grows and we may well see the ship weeks go over 225 participants!

Start 12254
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 11029 11030
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9927 9926
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8935 8939
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 7148 7152
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5719 5726
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4576 4582
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3661 3666
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2563 2569
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1795 NEW 1804
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1257 NEW 1263
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 880 NEW 885
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 616 NEW 620
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 370 NEW 372
40% Week 14 cut to Number - 222 NEW 224 (this means the top highest scoring non-playoff teams still get a subscription this week)

 

[Puppies]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

 

[Irelad]

Time for a look-ahead to ensure that I jinx myself.

QB - Cousins, Goff
RB - Etienne (w11) , Hall (IR), Sanders, Pierce, Mattison
WR - Sutton, Mooney (w14), Renfrow, Smith-Schuster, Davis (w10), Watkins (w14)
TE - Kelce, Ertz (w13), Alie-Cox (w14)
PK - Zuerlein (w10), Blankenship, Gano
TD - WAS (w14), CHI (w14), SEA (w11)

Week 10 - Despite having 3 Jets out on bye, this week should be fine, since Hall and Davis were already out with injuries anyways.
Week 11 - Looking like the shakiest week I have left now, since I'll be without Etienne and Hall. Luckily Sanders is facing the Colts, and Pierce is facing the Commanders, which should both have favorable game scripts to let them run a lot. Maybe I get a random TD out of Mattison. I'll also be without SEA D, which has been by far my biggest contributor on defense, as well as my #1 player in points per $.
Week 12 - All systems go.
Week 13 - I'll need someone to step up to fill the flex score that Ertz has been providing behind Kelce each week.
Week 14 - This week has the most players on a bye, but aside from Mooney, none of them have been contributing much, (Watkins and WAS D haven't contributed at all thus far anyways).

 

[trilliant]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

 

[Puppies]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

While trying to generate more interest in the Subscriber Contest, Joe Bryant challenged anyone who was interested to post a short article in the forum describing their strategy for the contest, and also post their actual lineup at least 48 hours prior to the contest going live. Anyone who posted a strategy article and/or their lineup (and didn't change it before the contest went live), and then managed to qualify for the finals.... would be awarded an extra $100 in addition to any prize they won. ( I think I've written that accurately. @TheWinz can correct me if I did't get it exactly right)

 

[scottybo]

Final bye week hurdle for me with Burrow, Stevenson and Boyd out.

Carr gave me a little hope last week. Stevenson's score has counted for me all 9 weeks so far. Burrow 6 or 7 out of 9 and Boyd 4 or 5 out of 9.

Not sure I can count on Carr, Mostert and Cook to carry me through with no support behind them. WR's and TE's should be able to get theirs.

Maybe this will finally be a Zamir White week?

 

[Dacomish]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

While trying to generate more interest in the Subscriber Contest, Joe Bryant challenged anyone who was interested to post a short article in the forum describing their strategy for the contest, and also post their actual lineup at least 48 hours prior to the contest going live. Anyone who posted a strategy article and/or their lineup (and didn't change it before the contest went live), and then managed to qualify for the finals.... would be awarded an extra $100 in addition to any prize they won. ( I think I've written that accurately. @TheWinz can correct me if I did't get it exactly right)

This is correct, for the double dip - @apalmer and I are the only contributors left to the FBG Contest strategy article eligible for that $100 along with the $100 for the line-up bonus.

 

[Ackme]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

While trying to generate more interest in the Subscriber Contest, Joe Bryant challenged anyone who was interested to post a short article in the forum describing their strategy for the contest, and also post their actual lineup at least 48 hours prior to the contest going live. Anyone who posted a strategy article and/or their lineup (and didn't change it before the contest went live), and then managed to qualify for the finals.... would be awarded an extra $100 in addition to any prize they won. ( I think I've written that accurately. @TheWinz can correct me if I did't get it exactly right)

I thought there was a bonus for posting your final line up before going live and a separate additional bonus for writing an article.

edit: nevermind! Dacomish covered it.

 

[dbc925]

Just wrapping up a week’s vacation in Miami, Key West, and Boca. No laptop here, so I was at the mercy of the scorekeeper. I was like Schroedinger’s cat. Maybe I was still alive,maybe I wasn’t. Tomorrow is getaway day, so my wife turned in early and I made the mistake of opening the box. After starting with 41+ with Pierce and Goedert Saturday , I’m sitting at about 100, getting Lamar -18, McKinnon and Juju -4.1 and 4.4, all of Bullock, and the Ravens D -5.

Dead cat.

Apparently, Schroedinger's cat is a zombie. Or has nine lives. Because here I am moving on to week 10. Thanks Juju!

Also, I may have been drinking and bad at math. I missed carrying a 1, and apparently missed a Tommy Tremble TD. I'd been at 116.

 

[apalmer]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

While trying to generate more interest in the Subscriber Contest, Joe Bryant challenged anyone who was interested to post a short article in the forum describing their strategy for the contest, and also post their actual lineup at least 48 hours prior to the contest going live. Anyone who posted a strategy article and/or their lineup (and didn't change it before the contest went live), and then managed to qualify for the finals.... would be awarded an extra $100 in addition to any prize they won. ( I think I've written that accurately. @TheWinz can correct me if I did't get it exactly right)

Sort of...it was actually two different offers, one for the advice, one for posting your lineup. Potentially $200 in bonuses if you qualify for both.

 

[Puppies]

Statistical Trivia... (and other fun facts) .....Week 9 Edition

* We have completed just over 64% of the qualifying portion of the Subscriber Contest, and 85.28% of the teams have now been eliminated.

* At the start, 222 of the 12,254 teams (or 1.796%) that participated were projected to make the finals and qualify for prizes.
* Through 9 weeks, 224 of the 1,804 surviving teams (or 12.383%) are now projected to make the finals.
* If your team is still alive, your statistical odds of making the finals are 689.45% better now, than they were at the start of the contest.

The overall survival rate of the contest through 9 weeks is 14.722%
The overall survival rate of the FootBallGuys Staff through 9 weeks is 18.519%

Roster Size Trends...
28 = the Roster size with the hightest overall survival rate through 9 weeks @ 28.46%.
Roster size 28 has the top spot 2 weeks in a row, and was in the top 5 for 5 weeks in a row prior to that.

18 = the Roster size with the lowest overall survival rate through 9 weeks @ 11.16%.
Roster size 18 has been the worst overall for 6 weeks in a row, after being the best overall in weeks 1 and 2.

Nail Biter of the week:
@sooted72 - made the cut by just 0.65 points!

Honorable Mentions:
@Birdie048 by 3.40 points
@Gottabesweet by 3.90 points
@Ackme by 4.00 points

Crushing the Cut Line:
@ajm27501 by 69.50 points
@Dacomish by 62.20 points
@Irelad by 49.40 points

The Turk knocketh..... Sorry to see you go

@dzambo 121.95 (-4.20)
@Ruffrodys05 116.00 (-10.15)
@formerfourdigit 110.95 (-15.20)
@davidwb 109.55 (-16.60)
@stubby 107.25 (-18.90)
@Monty Burns 104.45 (-21.70)

On to week 10 for the survivors.... Good luck to everyone going forward!!

 

[Birdie048]

Statistical Trivia... (and other fun facts) .....Week 9 Edition

* We have completed just over 64% of the qualifying portion of the Subscriber Contest, and 85.28% of the teams have now been eliminated.

* At the start, 222 of the 12,254 teams (or 1.796%) that participated were projected to make the finals and qualify for prizes.
* Through 9 weeks, 224 of the 1,804 surviving teams (or 12.383%) are now projected to make the finals.
* If your team is still alive, your statistical odds of making the finals are 689.45% better now, than they were at the start of the contest.

THANKS for the info! This is interesting info, but comical when you look at the almost 700% improvement at making the finals now.

 

[trilliant]

Average Weekly Scores Through Week 9:

(Teams in bold still qualify for @Joe Bryant $100 bonus derby)

178.91 apalmer
174.38 Army Eye
172.11 dacomish
169.89 Scottybo
169.28 Sooted72
166.14 Hagmania
166.06 bamabuddha
165.80 Menobrown
164.94 Puppies (Me)
164.84 Ackme
164.25 Birdie048
162.98 Irelad
162.51 Scoobus
160.06 ZWK
159.52 AAAAA Bail Bonds
159.18 dbc925
158.64 da_Budman
158.27 ajm25701
155.28 ChurchOfIggyPop
154.61 rzrback77
153.89 Gottabesweet
153.72 BroncosFan07
151.91 Trilliant

The Turk knocketh in week 9: Sorry to see you go....

166.56 Ruffrodys05
166.28 FormerFourDigit
165.59 Baededel Moon
163.60 davidwb
153.97 Stubby
151.94 dzambo
144.74 Monty Burns

Sorry, I must be late to the party - what is the $100 bonus derby?

While trying to generate more interest in the Subscriber Contest, Joe Bryant challenged anyone who was interested to post a short article in the forum describing their strategy for the contest, and also post their actual lineup at least 48 hours prior to the contest going live. Anyone who posted a strategy article and/or their lineup (and didn't change it before the contest went live), and then managed to qualify for the finals.... would be awarded an extra $100 in addition to any prize they won. ( I think I've written that accurately. @TheWinz can correct me if I did't get it exactly right)

Wow, very cool and generous, @Joe Bryant -- I just wish I'd have caught that info! I am absolutely a late-meddler but would have shut it down early for some extra incentive.

Though I don't have a great feeling about my roster making it too much further... I survived week 8 with no QB to speak of (Cousins, Winston, Mayfield) and thought for sure I'd be dead in the water. My TE trio of Goedert, Ertz, and Schultz (glad to have him back) will need to carry me home.

 

[Ackme]

Honorable Mentions:
@Birdie048 by 3.40 points
@Gottabesweet by 3.90 points
@Ackme by 4.00 points

I thought I was a goner after the late afternoon game with my thin line up. Luckily Cousins and Lazard had decent days and the Cardinal's D came up with a 10 point day, Hopefully Saquon and Pierce can really rumble in Houston and AJ Brown and Amon-Ra can both return to form.

 

[TheWinz]

Defenses
$7 - Only BUF & DAL were max price. The masses overwhelmingly (1681 to 326) preferred BUF, but DAL has outscored them. Both are top 8, but neither have an above average survival rate. The Cowboys have dropped 1 spot in commonality from 25th to 26th, while the Bills started 4th and have dipped to 6th.

$6 - 5 were offered (IND, LAC, LAR, NO, TB) and all are relative busts. The only D even in the top half of scoring is TB, and that's only due to their 22-pt game in week 2. Otherwise, they haven't scored above 6. Only 3 teams have dropped 5 places in commonality, and they all come from the $6 duds. To date, the Saints are the only team with 6 or less every game. Even if you rostered all 5 for $30, they would still be getting outscored by the Patriots!

$5 - 2 diamonds (NE & PHI) and 4 cubic zirconias (CIN, CLE, DEN, PIT). The masses did a decent job overall, as the only "mistake" was DEN being more common than PHI. The Eagles started with 290 less owners, and now have 4 more than the Broncos. I realize the Patriots haven't had their bye yet, but they are currently doubling 15 other teams!

$4 - The top 3 most common from the start come from this group (SF, GB, BAL). They still hold their spots, despite GB being a dud. The other 4 offered were KC, LV, MIA, WAS, and folks correctly steered clear of LV & WAS. KC & MIA are middle of the pack and have been very boom/bust.

$3 - Why spend more when 12 teams were offered for the minimum? For their price, you would assume around 8 of the teams would be below the league average, right? Well, 8 are actually in the top half, not the bottom. Of the top 8 most common D's from the start, only MIN made the list at 5th. ARI & SEA are currently D3 & D4.

 

[FairWarning]

My best run so far. The week 14 bye could be tough though.

QB Patrick Mahomes - $23	39.60
QB Justin Fields - $11	47.95
QB Marcus Mariota - $5	8.85
RB Aaron Jones - $27	5.50
RB Tony Pollard - $18	0.00
RB Dameon Pierce - $10	13.90
RB Khalil Herbert - $9	2.30
RB Tyler Allgeier - $7	12.80
RB Brian Robinson - $7	4.80
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - $17	9.50
WR Darnell Mooney - $17	17.50
WR Hunter Renfrow - $15	5.60
WR Allen Lazard - $12	18.70
WR K.J. Osborn - $8	0.00
WR Olamide Zaccheaus - $3	3.90
TE George Kittle - $18	0.00
TE Cole Kmet - $14	24.50
PK Evan McPherson - $6	6.00
PK Cairo Santos - $3	6.20
PK Rodrigo Blankenship - $3	0.00
TD Buffalo Bills - $7	4.00
TD Los Angeles Rams - $6	1.00
TD Chicago Bears - $3	0.00
TOTAL	160.65
CUT LINE	126.15

 

[Birdie048]

Honorable Mentions:
@Birdie048 by 3.40 points
@Gottabesweet by 3.90 points
@Ackme by 4.00 points

I thought I was a goner after the late afternoon game with my thin line up. Luckily Cousins and Lazard had decent days and the Cardinal's D came up with a 10 point day, Hopefully Saquon and Pierce can really rumble in Houston and AJ Brown and Amon-Ra can both return to form.

I am with you @Ackme for DPierce & Saq carrying some heavy lifting here on out!!
I scraped by with JuJu pushing me over the hump!!

 

[Puppies]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
RB	$10	8	112.70	11.27	14.09	Jamaal Williams (corrected)
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

 

[QuizGuy66]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

 

[apalmer]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

 

[Ackme]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

Seriously. No teams had Smith, Mariota and Dalton or Smith, Mariota and Garappolo at QB. Only two had Smith, Mariota and Brisesett and only one of them is still alive.

 

[Puppies]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

Seriously. No teams had Smith, Mariota and Dalton or Smith, Mariota and Garappolo at QB. Only two had Smith, Mariota and Brisesett and only one of them is still alive.

Keep in mind that individual player survival rates are NOT indicative of the value of the specific player, but instead give us an idea of the value of the entire roster that a specific player is a part of. IMHO, survival rate is one of the most misunderstood and misused statistics we have. Survival rates of individual players, when taken alone, are more or less irrelevant.

When looking at the player list above, think of the value a team could have had, if it saved cap money on a second QB and chose one of the ones above as a second QB instead, then used the extra cap money for an extra TE or WR or PK, boosting the survivability of their team. Without a crystal ball or the ability to forsee 'value players' such as these, it's difficult to do when choosing players for our lineups, but that's what makes the contest such a challenge, and so much fun. It's why we study as much information as we can get our hands on in the pre-season to try and identify some value players that are likely to perform at a cheap price.

If you are reading this, ask yourself the following question....
If you could trade QB Kirk Cousins (24.05 ppg) for QB Geno Smith (24.62 ppg) and WR Curtis Samuel (13.41 ppg) and an extra $3 PK or $3 DEF, would you do it???
I think most people would, especially those who are without a kicker due to the Blankenship fiasco. Who wouldn't like to have a $6 QB who is outperforming their $14 QB and get a free 13 ppg WR, and an extra kicker for the same total cap charge?

Food for thought....

 

[BroncosFan07]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

I see Jameson Williams on this list with a lot of YTD points. Is that supposed to read someone else?