2022 FBG Subscriber Contest is ON - Update - 1st place is $10k + $5k to food bank of their choice (2 Viewers)

[Puppies]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

I see Jameson Williams on this list with a lot of YTD points. Is that supposed to read someone else?

Good Catch! Yes, that was a typo. It's supposed to be Jamaal Williams RB Detroit ($10, 8-games, 112.70 points, 11.27/$, 14.09 ppg) . I went back and corrected the original post. The data download is all abbreviated player names and the similar ones are difficult to tell part. They also get out of order when teams are on bye and players are missing. I had to massage the data to get it all lined up and calculate the averages, etc, but I messed that one up. Thanks for pointing it out!

 

[Ackme]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

Seriously. No teams had Smith, Mariota and Dalton or Smith, Mariota and Garappolo at QB. Only two had Smith, Mariota and Brisesett and only one of them is still alive.

Keep in mind that individual player survival rates are NOT indicative of the value of the specific player, but instead give us an idea of the value of the entire roster that a specific player is a part of. IMHO, survival rate is one of the most misunderstood and misused statistics we have. Survival rates of individual players, when taken alone, are more or less irrelevant.

When looking at the player list above, think of the value a team could have had, if it saved cap money on a second QB and chose one of the ones above as a second QB instead, then used the extra cap money for an extra TE or WR or PK, boosting the survivability of their team. Without a crystal ball or the ability to forsee 'value players' such as these, it's difficult to do when choosing players for our lineups, but that's what makes the contest such a challenge, and so much fun. It's why we study as much information as we can get our hands on in the pre-season to try and identify some value players that are likely to perform at a cheap price.

If you are reading this, ask yourself the following question....
If you could trade QB Kirk Cousins (24.05 ppg) for QB Geno Smith (24.62 ppg) and WR Curtis Samuel (13.41 ppg) and an extra $3 PK or $3 DEF, would you do it???
I think most people would, especially those who are without a kicker due to the Blankenship fiasco. Who wouldn't like to have a $6 QB who is outperforming their $14 QB and get a free 13 ppg WR, and an extra kicker for the same total cap charge?

Food for thought....

Thanks for this. I guess my thinking is; who would have the...insight?, stones?, luck?... to figure that Geno Smith (career back-up in a run-centric Off.) would be near the points equivalent of any of the $13-$15 QBs? I guess we didn't know that Geno was such a poor lazy correspondent he couldn't be bothered to write back.

AND that the savings could be parlayed into more value than additional dart throws in the random number generator categories (TE/K/TD). I did this a bit with my TEs. Rather than using capital on the big 2, I bought 4 mid-low prospects. As it happened 3 are on your value list and they have been key. Not only scoring decently each week but also adding a flex score in 9 of the 18 possible flex scores thru 9 weeks.

I think you are absolutely correct that trying to figure this out is the fun and challenge of this contest. Reading this and thinking about my response is to think about team building in future years in this more holisitc way.

 

[Dacomish]

If Boswell can go this week I may be going Kickerless as I have Blankenship teamless and Greg the Leg on bye...

The Steelers have signed kicker Matthew Wright to the 53-man roster. Chris Boswell missed two weeks ago with a groin injury and continues to work back. We'll have to wait and see if he'll be good to go on Sunday.

-Mike DeFabo | 10:33 am ET

https://twitter.com/MikeDeFabo/status/1590366374572216321

 

[da_budman]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

I see Jameson Williams on this list with a lot of YTD points. Is that supposed to read someone else?

Good Catch! Yes, that was a typo. It's supposed to be Jamaal Williams RB Detroit ($10, 8-games, 112.70 points, 11.27/$, 14.09 ppg) . I went back and corrected the original post. The data download is all abbreviated player names and the similar ones are difficult to tell part. They also get out of order when teams are on bye and players are missing. I had to massage the data to get it all lined up and calculate the averages, etc, but I messed that one up. Thanks for pointing it out!

Look. You need to get this straightened out. We have standards here and you need to make sure you get this free info that we like to read out both correctly and on time.... NO EXCUSES MISTER!!!

 

[FairWarning]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

Seriously. No teams had Smith, Mariota and Dalton or Smith, Mariota and Garappolo at QB. Only two had Smith, Mariota and Brisesett and only one of them is still alive.

Keep in mind that individual player survival rates are NOT indicative of the value of the specific player, but instead give us an idea of the value of the entire roster that a specific player is a part of. IMHO, survival rate is one of the most misunderstood and misused statistics we have. Survival rates of individual players, when taken alone, are more or less irrelevant.

When looking at the player list above, think of the value a team could have had, if it saved cap money on a second QB and chose one of the ones above as a second QB instead, then used the extra cap money for an extra TE or WR or PK, boosting the survivability of their team. Without a crystal ball or the ability to forsee 'value players' such as these, it's difficult to do when choosing players for our lineups, but that's what makes the contest such a challenge, and so much fun. It's why we study as much information as we can get our hands on in the pre-season to try and identify some value players that are likely to perform at a cheap price.

If you are reading this, ask yourself the following question....
If you could trade QB Kirk Cousins (24.05 ppg) for QB Geno Smith (24.62 ppg) and WR Curtis Samuel (13.41 ppg) and an extra $3 PK or $3 DEF, would you do it???
I think most people would, especially those who are without a kicker due to the Blankenship fiasco. Who wouldn't like to have a $6 QB who is outperforming their $14 QB and get a free 13 ppg WR, and an extra kicker for the same total cap charge?

Food for thought....

Thanks for this. I guess my thinking is; who would have the...insight?, stones?, luck?... to figure that Geno Smith (career back-up in a run-centric Off.) would be near the points equivalent of any of the $13-$15 QBs? I guess we didn't know that Geno was such a poor lazy correspondent he couldn't be bothered to write back.

AND that the savings could be parlayed into more value than additional dart throws in the random number generator categories (TE/K/TD). I did this a bit with my TEs. Rather than using capital on the big 2, I bought 4 mid-low prospects. As it happened 3 are on your value list and they have been key. Not only scoring decently each week but also adding a flex score in 9 of the 18 possible flex scores thru 9 weeks.

I think you are absolutely correct that trying to figure this out is the fun and challenge of this contest. Reading this and thinking about my response is to think about team building in future years in this more holisitc way.

And every year is different, depending on how the bye weeks fall. This year, there just happens to be week 14 byes, and some very impactful players will be out. I changed my roster about 10 times with this in mind. I wanted to go contrarian (like playin g a FD grand tourney), yet have a lot of cheap options in week 14 since I went heavy on Bears.

 

[da_budman]

If Boswell can go this week I may be going Kickerless as I have Blankenship teamless and Greg the Leg on bye...

The Steelers have signed kicker Matthew Wright to the 53-man roster. Chris Boswell missed two weeks ago with a groin injury and continues to work back. We'll have to wait and see if he'll be good to go on Sunday.

-Mike DeFabo | 10:33 am ET

https://twitter.com/MikeDeFabo/status/1590366374572216321

Once Wright was brought up from the practice squad it is almost assured Boswell is not kicking unfortunately for you.

 

[Puppies]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

A crystal ball is a big help

Seriously. No teams had Smith, Mariota and Dalton or Smith, Mariota and Garappolo at QB. Only two had Smith, Mariota and Brisesett and only one of them is still alive.

Keep in mind that individual player survival rates are NOT indicative of the value of the specific player, but instead give us an idea of the value of the entire roster that a specific player is a part of. IMHO, survival rate is one of the most misunderstood and misused statistics we have. Survival rates of individual players, when taken alone, are more or less irrelevant.

When looking at the player list above, think of the value a team could have had, if it saved cap money on a second QB and chose one of the ones above as a second QB instead, then used the extra cap money for an extra TE or WR or PK, boosting the survivability of their team. Without a crystal ball or the ability to forsee 'value players' such as these, it's difficult to do when choosing players for our lineups, but that's what makes the contest such a challenge, and so much fun. It's why we study as much information as we can get our hands on in the pre-season to try and identify some value players that are likely to perform at a cheap price.

If you are reading this, ask yourself the following question....
If you could trade QB Kirk Cousins (24.05 ppg) for QB Geno Smith (24.62 ppg) and WR Curtis Samuel (13.41 ppg) and an extra $3 PK or $3 DEF, would you do it???
I think most people would, especially those who are without a kicker due to the Blankenship fiasco. Who wouldn't like to have a $6 QB who is outperforming their $14 QB and get a free 13 ppg WR, and an extra kicker for the same total cap charge?

Food for thought....

Thanks for this. I guess my thinking is; who would have the...insight?, stones?, luck?... to figure that Geno Smith (career back-up in a run-centric Off.) would be near the points equivalent of any of the $13-$15 QBs? I guess we didn't know that Geno was such a poor lazy correspondent he couldn't be bothered to write back.

AND that the savings could be parlayed into more value than additional dart throws in the random number generator categories (TE/K/TD). I did this a bit with my TEs. Rather than using capital on the big 2, I bought 4 mid-low prospects. As it happened 3 are on your value list and they have been key. Not only scoring decently each week but also adding a flex score in 9 of the 18 possible flex scores thru 9 weeks.

I think you are absolutely correct that trying to figure this out is the fun and challenge of this contest. Reading this and thinking about my response is to think about team building in future years in this more holisitc way.

To answer your question that I highlighted in bold red above.... probably nobody would, if they believed the stat projections. It's more a matter of having a few cap dollars to spend on a hunch, or a lottery ticket type player that is very cheap, but has a high upside if the person in front of him either gets hurt or flops. (ie, Jeff Wilson)

Just speaking for myself, I never choose players like Keenan Allen, because as good as he is, he always seems to be banged up (been there and done that). Instead, I look at the depth chart and see who is likely to step in when Keenan Allen (or other high profile receiver) gets his usual injury and bows out. If there's a good quality player there for a low cap number, there's a decent chance he makes my lineup if I have the dollars to spend. That would have been either Mike Williams or Joshua Palmer this year. Williams was a little too rich for my budget at $21 and I considered Palmer at $6, along with K.J. Osborn at $8 in Minnesota, who is playing along side Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. I made a bad choice and rostered Osborn at a $2 premium, thinking he might get more targets than Palmer (both had strong pre-seasons), and also because I rostered Kirk Cousins and was having visions of plays scoring two TDs at a time. So far that hasn't panned out. However, Osborn has contributed one WR score and one Flex score to my effort, so all is not lost. But I'd like to get a lot more than that for my $8, or else I'm thinking I should have spent money on a 3rd defense instead and used the other $5 to upgrade somewhere else. Palmer would have been a good choice for $6. in 8 weeks, he has put up 4 scores in the teens, that would likely have counted on my score sheet (13.00, 15.90, 14.70 and 18.60). That's real value for a $6 WR. You often spend $20+ on a WR and don't do any better.

As I've said several times before, this contest is about finding and identifying "value". If you make 4 roster choices under about $8 each, and you hit on 2 of them, you might be better off than if you spent the $24 to $30 on a WR stud. Plus you are much better positioned for navigating bye weeks, and are better insulated against injuries. If that $30 stud WR pulls a Keenan Allen and goes out for a good portion of the season, you're screwed.

I think the best strategy in this contest is trying to pick one player you think is close to a sure thing at each skill position, and then rounding our your roster with value players. I did that the year I finished 4th, but note that I was extremely lucky and avoided injuries. Avoiding injuries is virtually a must with a 19 player roster, which is what I had that year. I believe the statistics I post each week indicate that there is a very slim chance to make the finals in this contest with a small roster. It can happen if you are lucky enough to avoid injuries, but the odds are far better imho, for larger roster teams.

 

[hagmania]

VALUE PICKS through week 9 - Players with the greatest return on their cap dollars, while also scoring a respectable total of points

	Cap $	Games	Points	Points/$	Average
QB	$6	9	221.55	36.93	24.62	Geno Smith
QB	$5	9	180.45	36.09	20.05	Marcus Mariotta
QB	$3	6	127.55	42.52	21.26	Andy Dalton
QB	$7	7	154.85	22.12	22.12	Jimmy Garoppolo
QB	$7	8	156.30	22.33	19.54	Jacoby Brisette
RB	$24	8	162.10	6.75	20.26	Nick Chubb
RB	$19	8	140.00	7.37	17.50	Josh Jacobs
RB	$15	9	132.00	8.80	14.67	Rhomande Stevenson
RB	$10	8	111.60	11.16	13.95	Dameon Pierce
RB	$9	9	97.90	10.88	10.88	Khalil Herbert
WR	$13	9	134.80	10.37	14.98	Tyler Lockett
WR	$5	9	120.70	24.14	13.41	Curtis Samuel
WR	$11	9	115.85	10.53	12.87	Tyler Boyd
WR	$7	8	112.70	16.10	14.09	Jameson Williams
WR	$7	8	93.80	13.40	11.73	Necole Hardman
WR	$6	9	86.30	14.38	9.59	Devin Duvernay
WR	$5	8	82.00	16.40	10.25	Zay Jones
TE	$8	9	99.30	12.41	11.03	Hayden Hurst
TE	$7	8	99.00	14.14	12.38	Ty Colklin
TE	$9	7	98.20	10.91	14.03	David Njoku
TE	$8	8	94.10	11.76	11.76	Gerald Everett
TE	$5	8	87.45	17.49	10.93	Taysom Hill
PK	$4	9	96.50	24.13	10.72	Jason Myers
PK	$3	8	84.20	28.07	10.53	Graham Gano
PK	$3	9	85.20	28.40	9.47	Greg Zuerlein
PK	$3	8	70.50	23.50	8.81	Ka'imi Fairbairn
PK	$3	8	68.30	22.77	8.54	Cairo Santos
DEF	$3	9	70.00	23.33	7.78	Arizona Cardinals
DEF	$3	9	69.00	23.00	7.67	Seattle Seahawks
DEF	$3	9	60.00	20.00	6.67	NY Jets
DEF	$3	8	56.00	18.67	7.00	Atlanta Falcons
DEF	$3	8	53.00	17.67	6.63	Tennessee Titans

This is clip and save stuff - have to think about how these guys did it and how to try and discern them.
-QG

I have several of these players on my team. I just used the FBG projections and did a simple $/pt calc

 

[dbc925]

So let’s see what week 10 looks like. I only visited here once before. Nice digs.

What’s the team looking like? Let’s listen in on the locker room:

QB - Lamar, take a week off. You can use it since Goff and a Mariota have started ahead of you for three or four weeks now. Get your head together for a playoff run.

RB - Dameon, your back must hurt from carrying these guys. Dalvin gave you a little help this past week. Who (if) the third guy is from this dreck is anyone’s guess. We know it won’t be Zamir. Edmonds, McKinnon, B Rod - that is a challenge. Step up.

WR - I need at least three, maybe four, of you to step up. Juju, mad props for saving us last week. On to week 10. DJ, Courtland - do better. Either that or McKenzie and Pickens can show you how it’s done. Looks like Romeo will be sitting this one out.

TE - Thank God for this group. Aside from Mo-Alie, Hockenson and Goedert have played like the whole team should have been. Hell, even Tommy Tremble got some PT.

K - looks bleak again. Bullock, I need you again this week. And Boswell - rub some dirt on it and get out there. Blanky is already screwing me, I don’t need two of you.

D - with BAL on the sideline, SF, take the wheel. You have LAC while MIN plays BUF..

Only two of y’all are off this week, so the rest of y’all PICK IT UP!

 

[apalmer]

D - with BAL on the sideline, SF, take the wheel. You have LAC while MIN plays BAL BUF.

Only two of y’all are off this week, so the rest of y’all PICK IT UP!

Correction: my potential loss (Josh Allen) is your potential gain.

 

[apalmer]

This week's FBG projections for my team (at least as of today):

Allen (24.9?) , Pickett (20.4?)/Trubisky

Henry (19.0), Chubb (16.4), Pierce (14.8), Benjamin (5.3), Stevenson

ARSB (16.3), JJSS (13.9), Sutton (12.4), Pickens (11.5), Zay Jones (10.7), Edwards (0.2)

Goedert (15.0), Hockenson (14.9), Schultz (11.0)

Gano (7.6), Fairbairn (6.1), Blankenship

AZ (8.2), Minn (6.7)

Total (with Allen): 151
Total (with Pickett): 146.5

I've been consistently outscoring FBG projections all year, so this is encouraging--feeling like I could actually survive the Allen injury this week because of only having one bye player. Next week is similar, with only Jones out, but after that, the cuts will be brutal, so that elbow needs to heal quickly.

 

[TheWinz]

I think the best strategy in this contest is trying to pick one player you think is close to a sure thing at each skill position, and then rounding our your roster with value players. I did that the year I finished 4th, but note that I was extremely lucky and avoided injuries. Avoiding injuries is virtually a must with a 19 player roster, which is what I had that year. I believe the statistics I post each week indicate that there is a very slim chance to make the finals in this contest with a small roster. It can happen if you are lucky enough to avoid injuries, but the odds are far better imho, for larger roster teams.

Do you remember what year you finished 4th?

 

[Puppies]

I think the best strategy in this contest is trying to pick one player you think is close to a sure thing at each skill position, and then rounding our your roster with value players. I did that the year I finished 4th, but note that I was extremely lucky and avoided injuries. Avoiding injuries is virtually a must with a 19 player roster, which is what I had that year. I believe the statistics I post each week indicate that there is a very slim chance to make the finals in this contest with a small roster. It can happen if you are lucky enough to avoid injuries, but the odds are far better imho, for larger roster teams.

Do you remember what year you finished 4th?

Yes. Finished 4th in 2011, which was the first year I played.

I wish I had recorded detailed stats from that first year, but I didn’t. I love to find out that you did !

It’s been a strange morning so far here in Florida. Power is out and I’m on generator power as this storm passes through. I’m using my cell phone to access the site.

 

[apalmer]

I think the best strategy in this contest is trying to pick one player you think is close to a sure thing at each skill position, and then rounding our your roster with value players. I did that the year I finished 4th, but note that I was extremely lucky and avoided injuries. Avoiding injuries is virtually a must with a 19 player roster, which is what I had that year. I believe the statistics I post each week indicate that there is a very slim chance to make the finals in this contest with a small roster. It can happen if you are lucky enough to avoid injuries, but the odds are far better imho, for larger roster teams.

Do you remember what year you finished 4th?

Yes. Finished 4th in 2011, which was the first year I played.

I wish I had recorded detailed stats from that first year, but I didn’t. I love to find out that you did !

It’s been a strange morning so far here in Florida. Power is out and I’m on generator power as this storm passes through. I’m using my cell phone to access the site.

Now that's dedication!

 

[Dacomish]

This week's FBG projections for my team (at least as of today):

Allen (24.9?) , Pickett (20.4?)/Trubisky

Henry (19.0), Chubb (16.4), Pierce (14.8), Benjamin (5.3), Stevenson

ARSB (16.3), JJSS (13.9), Sutton (12.4), Pickens (11.5), Zay Jones (10.7), Edwards (0.2)

Goedert (15.0), Hockenson (14.9), Schultz (11.0)

Gano (7.6), Fairbairn (6.1)

AZ (8.2), Minn (6.7)

Total (with Allen): 151
Total (with Pickett): 146.5

I've been consistently outscoring FBG projections all year, so this is encouraging--feeling like I could actually survive the Allen injury this week because of only having one bye player. Next week is similar, with only Jones out, but after that, the cuts will be brutal, so that elbow needs to heal quickly.

I think I'm really going to be bobbin and weavin the Turk this week, I am sitting at a projection total of only 128.6 and currently Kickerless.......uggh

 

[Puppies]

BLAST FROM THE PAST ( 2011 vintage trivia.... )

@TheWinz got me thinking this morning with his question about the year I made the finals. I didn't think I had saved much information from that first year I played (2011), but sitting here this morning watching wind and rain outside as the storm passes over Florida, I found a spreadsheet from my 2012 team that shows a comparsion to my 2011 season. From that I was able to glean a bit of infomation on my team and my scoring when I finished 4th in 2011. Most folks probably won't care to read this but here it is for anyone who does... It's interesting to try and remember who was playing in the NFL 11 years ago. Some names are familiar and others are not. See how many of these guys you remember...

This is a summary of my 2011 season and my 4th place roster including bye weeks of each player. Weekly scoring and cutoff values are in the table below the lineup.

QB Aaron Rodgers / 8
QB Matt Stafford / 9

RB Maurice Jones-Drew / 9
RB Willis McGahee / 6
RB James Starks / 8
RB Felix Jones / 5
RB Isaac Redman / 11

WR Calvin Johnson / 9
WR Roddy WHite / 8
WR Antonio Brown / 11
WR Lance Moore / 11
WR Denarius Moore / 8

TE Aaron Hernandez / 7
TE Owen Daniels / 11

PK Matt Bryant / 8
PK Adam Vinatieri / 11

DEF New England / 5
DEF New Orleans / 2


2011 Team Scoring and Cut off stats
WEEK / MY SCORE / CUT-LINE

--1-- 162.00 cut line= 00.00 (to 13,500 teams)
--2-- 188.90 cut line= 138.90 (to 11,000 teams)
--3-- 192.75 cut line= 142.00 (to 9,000 teams)
--4-- 195.10 cut line= 142.10 (to 7,500 teams)
--5-- 150.20 cut line= 104.90 (to 6,250 teams)
--6-- 124.10 cut line= 112.35 (to 5,000 teams)
--7-- 162.95 cut line= 108.15 (to 4,000 teams)
--8-- 154.15 cut line= 128.55 (to 3,100 teams)
--9-- 152.95 cut line= 140.25 (to 2,300 teams)
-10-- 176.00 cut line= 147.15 (to 1,600 teams)
-11-- 154.95 cut line= 133.90 (to 1.000 teams)
-12-- 165.65 cut line= 154.55 (to 500 teams)
-13-- 165.25 cut line= 164.25 (to 250 teams) Close call! Made playoffs by 1 point !
=========== PLAYOFFS ================
-14-- 193.25 (was in about 155th place after 1st week of playoffs)
-15-- 242.35 (highest overall score moved me from 155th to 2nd place)
-16-- 184.15 (not a great score, but only dropped from 2nd to 4th, scoring 619.75 points in the 3-week playoff)

As I remember it, Matt Stafford hooked up with Megatron for multiple TDs in week 15 and that's what put me in the hunt with the 242.35 score.

The following year in 2012, I had a 20-player roster that outscored my 2011 team by an average of 8.78 points, averaging 181.58 points per week.
But my 2012 team missed the cut in week 8 and was eliminated. I continued to track it and found that it would have survived all the remaining weeks
and made the 2012 playoffs as well, and would have scored 199.90, 194.65, and 211.80 in the playoffs, and would have finished 27th overall.

Good luck to everyone in week 10!

 

[Puppies]

Rodgrio Blankenship Watch; Updated Thurs @ 6:57pm

Remote possibilities for Blankie to be active somewhere this week....

* LAC Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) DNP Wed, DNP Thurs <<< watch
* GB Mason Crosby (back) LP Wed, LP Thurs
* AZ Matt Prater (hip) LP Wed, LP Thurs
* PIT Chris Boswell (groin) DNP Wednesday Chris Boswell to IR (Steelers Signed Matthew Wright off KC Practice Squad)

In other news, Darren Waller was just placed on IR - Out for 4 weeks!

 

[Army Eye]

A little while back, I complained that Footballguys no longer had the page where we could see our team's performance over the whole season (even offering to code it myself). Nothing happened on that front, so I took matters into my own hands and built my own version of that page on my web server. Once I had gotten that far, it wasn't a big leap to open it up so anyone can use it, so I went ahead and did that.


So.. if you also miss this feature, you are invited to enter your contest team's ID at this little app I spun up, and have a look.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest

Give it a bit of time to generate your scores. You can then bookmark the resulting page and not have to enter your ID next time.

Works on eliminated teams too, if you want to see what happened, or what might have been if you stayed in.

 

[TheWinz]

I thought people would like to see the prices for your 2011 roster, so here they are:

QB Aaron Rodgers - $31 - finished as QB1
QB Matt Stafford - $18 - finished as QB5

RB Maurice Jones-Drew - $30 - finished as RB4
RB Felix Jones - $23 - finished as RB40
RB James Starks - $16 - finished as RB42
RB Willis McGahee - $11 - finished as RB25
RB Isaac Redman - $2 - finished as RB48

WR Calvin Johnson - $31 - finished as WR1
WR Roddy White - $30 - finished as WR5
WR Lance Moore - $10 - finished as WR35
WR Antonio Brown - $3 - finished as WR24
WR Denarius Moore - $3 - finished as WR51

TE Owen Daniels - $12 - finished as TE17
TE Aaron Hernandez - $10 - finished as TE3

PK Matt Bryant - $4 - finished as K9
PK Adam Vinatieri - $4 - finished as K26

DEF New England - $7 - finished as D10
DEF New Orleans - $5 - finished as D29

 

[TheWinz]

DEF New England - $7 - finished as D10
DEF New Orleans - $5 - finished as D29

By the way, in 2011, the D's ranged from $2 to $9. PIT was the only $9 team, and they finished D30.

 

[da_budman]

A little while back, I complained that Footballguys no longer had the page where we could see our team's performance over the whole season (even offering to code it myself). Nothing happened on that front, so I took matters into my own hands and built my own version of that page on my web server. Once I had gotten that far, it wasn't a big leap to open it up so anyone can use it, so I went ahead and did that.


So.. if you also miss this feature, you are invited to enter your contest team's ID at this little app I spun up, and have a look.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest

Give it a bit of time to generate your scores. You can then bookmark the resulting page and not have to enter your ID next time.

Works on eliminated teams too, if you want to see what happened, or what might have been if you stayed in.

Sweet but it didnt work on my team.....everything looks good till weeks 8 and 9 where it scored the individual players but scored my total as 0 for both weeks...it has me cut week 8 when I scored over 200 points.... team 106507 if you want to check it out.

 

[Puppies]

A little while back, I complained that Footballguys no longer had the page where we could see our team's performance over the whole season (even offering to code it myself). Nothing happened on that front, so I took matters into my own hands and built my own version of that page on my web server. Once I had gotten that far, it wasn't a big leap to open it up so anyone can use it, so I went ahead and did that.


So.. if you also miss this feature, you are invited to enter your contest team's ID at this little app I spun up, and have a look.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest

Give it a bit of time to generate your scores. You can then bookmark the resulting page and not have to enter your ID next time.

Works on eliminated teams too, if you want to see what happened, or what might have been if you stayed in.

Wow! Thanks for doing this! What a great tool to use when reviewing your team's progress!!

 

[Army Eye]

Sweet but it didnt work on my team.....everything looks good till weeks 8 and 9 where it scored the individual players but scored my total as 0 for both weeks...it has me cut week 8 when I scored over 200 points.... team 106507 if you want to check it out.

I'm seeing your totals OK, is it still being weird for you? Maybe at the time it wasn't quite done crunching your numbers, it does take a little time. Trying to think of the best way to handle that. But if that's what it was, there's only a lag when you load your team the very first time, so, not a big thing.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/106507

 

[Army Eye]

RB Felix Jones - $23 - finished as RB40

Felix Jones being a $23 guy is the thing to me that's most like, wow was that a different timeline?!

 

[Ackme]

@Army Eye Very Nice! Thanks. One small note: the bye weeks are out of date with players who were traded. Chase Edmonds still listed with week 11 bye from Miami. Now on Denver.

I have been tracking my own but just copy and pasting the scores each week. One think I did was to highlight the flex scores to get a sense of where that productivity was coming from.

Google Sheets: Sign-in

Access Google Sheets with a personal Google account or Google Workspace account (for business use).

docs.google.com

 

[da_budman]

Sweet but it didnt work on my team.....everything looks good till weeks 8 and 9 where it scored the individual players but scored my total as 0 for both weeks...it has me cut week 8 when I scored over 200 points.... team 106507 if you want to check it out.

I'm seeing your totals OK, is it still being weird for you? Maybe at the time it wasn't quite done crunching your numbers, it does take a little time. Trying to think of the best way to handle that. But if that's what it was, there's only a lag when you load your team the very first time, so, not a big thing.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/106507

It is working now thanks.....

 

[FairWarning]

Sweet app @Army Eye. Unfortunately is shows the realization that I have TWELVE on bye week 14.

 

[Stray Doug]

@Army Eye Very Nice! Thanks. One small note: the bye weeks are out of date with players who were traded. Chase Edmonds still listed with week 11 bye from Miami. Now on Denver.

I have been tracking my own but just copy and pasting the scores each week. One think I did was to highlight the flex scores to get a sense of where that productivity was coming from.

Google Sheets: Sign-in

Access Google Sheets with a personal Google account or Google Workspace account (for business use).

docs.google.com

Same re: tracking on a spreadsheet and highlighting, similar visual format as Army's tool (nice job!)

 

[Stray Doug]

In other news, Darren Waller was just placed on IR - Out for 4 weeks!

Renfrow as well

 

[Dacomish]

Via Rapsheet:
The Steelers have placed K Chris Boswell on Injured Reserve, knocking him out four games.

I guess I'm officially Kickerless this week unless Hot Rod somehow finds a job in the next few days...

 

[Puppies]

Via Rapsheet:
The Steelers have placed K Chris Boswell on Injured Reserve, knocking him out four games.

I guess I'm officially Kickerless this week unless Hot Rod somehow finds a job in the next few days...

Dustin Hopkins has just been ruled out for week 10. Maybe the Chargers give Hot Rod a call ?? I haven't seen any news on them signing a replacement kicker yet....

 

[da_budman]

Sweet app @Army Eye. Unfortunately is shows the realization that I have TWELVE on bye week 14.

Yeah I have more than I realized as well. I guess when you take discount players with a late bye these things happen.

 

[Puppies]

Via Rapsheet:
The Steelers have placed K Chris Boswell on Injured Reserve, knocking him out four games.

I guess I'm officially Kickerless this week unless Hot Rod somehow finds a job in the next few days...

Dustin Hopkins has just been ruled out for week 10. Maybe the Chargers give Hot Rod a call ?? I haven't seen any news on them signing a replacement kicker yet....

Blankenship watch..... Unfortunately it looks like no Blankie, this week... (updated Saturday 4:45pm)

LA Chargers just elevated PK Cameron Dicker from the practice squad for their week 10 game.
In Green Bay, Mason Crosby was limited in practice Friday but is expected to play.
In Arizona, Matt Prater did not practice Friday, but is expected to play.
Chris Boswell was put in injured recerve this week but the Steelers signed PK Matthew Wright from the Kansas City practice squad to take his place. Wright kicked for them multiple weeks last year when Boswell was out for an extended time, and did very well as a fill-in.

 

[Saint]

Week 9 was another big week of cuts with 7 of our Top 5 scores biting the dust. As of this week, all of our Top 5 scores from Week 1 and Week 3 have been eliminated. We wish thee fond farewell to Pipeb0mb (who was in the Top 5 in Week 8), Entry 100376, 108242, 110376, hugebirdspete, Spooky Vanilla, and Smokenapancake.

Here's a look at our Top 5 runners since week 1... (Another shoutout to Scottybo, who is still in the squad!)

• We have had 45 different teams score in the top 5. Of the current survivors, we now have had 4 teams (still surviving) in the Top 50 multiple times
  • 1 x 18 person roosters (103499), 1 x 19 person roosters (111472), 1 x 20 person roosters (schoon), 1 x 22 person rooster (GetUpKraeperdick)
• While our points leader from last week (Schoon) is still alive at an average of 183.10, he was passed up by a new points leader. Welcome to Entry 106627 (https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106627/week/9) who is averaging 184.93 since Week 1.
• The average pts per week of the folks that have placed in Top 5 is 171.17
• We have lost 24 teams that have placed in the Top 5 since Week 1 with the bloodiest week being Week 9 now.
• The average pts per week of all eliminated Top 5 teams has been 168.21.
• The turk average has been 128.54 pts.

 

[apalmer]

Welcome to Entry 106627 (https://footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106627/week/9) who is averaging 184.93 since Week 1.

I predict a change after Week 11.

 

[Ackme]

Julio Jones scored a touchdown!

 

[Puppies]

Julio Jones scored a touchdown!

Fournette too! And I needed that because I’m on thin ice this week with key players missing. I really need Fournette to get another TD to give a little breathing room.

 

[scottybo]

DK's penalty backs Myers' FG from 40 to 55.

Thanks for the extra 1.5, DK.

 

[Ackme]

Julio Jones scored a touchdown!

Fournette too! And I needed that because I’m on thin ice this week with key players missing. I really need Fournette to get another TD to give a little breathing room.

I'll take another from Fournette too! A little swing pass would be nice since I have him in a PPR league

 

[Ackme]

Schiesse. I should have clarified that I meant Fournette should CATCH a swing pass not attempt one.

 

[da_budman]

Schiesse. I should have clarified that I meant Fournette should CATCH a swing pass not attempt one.

do interceptions count against runningbacks in this thing? White it the best rb on this team and should be the starter btw..... ( shows himself out before the Fournette owners commence throwing rocks at me) just saw Fournette on the sidelines all wrapped up.... now I am REALLY running for it.

 

[Puppies]

Schiesse. I should have clarified that I meant Fournette should CATCH a swing pass not attempt one.

do interceptions count against runningbacks in this thing? White it the best rb on this team and should be the starter btw..... ( shows himself out before the Fournette owners commence throwing rocks at me) just saw Fournette on the sidelines all wrapped up.... now I am REALLY running for it.

Interceptions do count (-1) for QB, RB, TE, and WR. I just verified it to be sure.
It gets worse.... Fournette has a hip injury and was listed as doubtful to return after it happened. Hopefully it's not something that carries into week 11, assuming I can manage to survive week 10.
Looks like Fournette was good for 11.30 points after subtracting for the interception.

 

[Irelad]

Dang, Juju out for the game after a helmet to helmet, only had 2 catches for 33 yards before leaving.

 

[scottybo]

Dalvin! My only two RBs have answered my call today. Cook and Mostert just may help me over the cut line.

 

[Dacomish]

Detroit Pick 6! I REALLY Needed that with no K going....

 

[Puppies]

I have a strong feeling that there are a bunch of happy Minnesota Vikings Defense owners. What a wacky finish to a 4th quarter to send that game into overtime.

 

[Dacomish]

I have a strong feeling that there are a bunch of happy Minnesota Vikings Defense owners. What a wacky finish to a 4th quarter to send that game into overtime.

Absolutely! I have Detroit and Minny (plus Atl) so when Det's 11 got bettered by 3 points I was VERY happy!

 

[TwinTurbo]

Just popping back in to say C. Sutton still sucks.

 

[Puppies]

Just popping back in to say C. Sutton still sucks.

He sucked a lot less on that last drive, getting 3 catches for about 30 more yards....

 

[scottybo]

I have a strong feeling that there are a bunch of happy Minnesota Vikings Defense owners. What a wacky finish to a 4th quarter to send that game into overtime.

YEP! +2 more at the end.