2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[Balco]

Jahan Dotson is the most widely owned player not on the above ownership rate lists by a good margin... he's at 31.2% ownership, somehow slightly UP from the 29.9% he started the contest with despite his sub-par performance for his price.

The next 3 are Cameron Dicker (slightly down from 24.2% to 23.6% now), Calvin Ridley (slightly down from 25.6% to 23.5% now), and Khalil Herbert (slightly up from 20.2% to 21.7% now, but expect that will be migrating downward until he's back from IR)

Wonder if it’s because Dotson wasn’t hugely expensive. Missing on a $14 player is less damaging than missing on a $30 player.

In my case I have Dotson and a terrible receiving group outside of Keenan Allen. Courtland Sutton has been solid as of late. But Christian Watson, DeVante Parker, Mack Hollins, and Skyy Moore round out the group. Yikes.

 

[JaBoo]

If I can borrow jdkapow's shtick...

You snooze you lose​

Players who were on bye, or injured in week 7 and their absence crushed their teams.​

QB: Teams rostering Justin Fields saw a 34% cut rate in week 7, more than double the 14.5% experienced by the also injured Garoppolo owners.

TD: Dallas teams suffered a 29% drop out rate, largely due to the curious logic of, "Getting a DST is important, so I'll spend up to get Dallas. But not so important that I would get a team to cover their bye."

TE: Cole Kmet owners saw a staggering 40% drop off, perhaps because Cole mistakenly thought week 7 was his bye week. Compare that to Freiermuth, who cost nearly twice as much, and his owners only suffered a 30% drop.

WR: Interestingly, 37% of Tee Higgins owners joined the observation deck, while only 34% of Ja'Mar Chase owners did the same. I would have thought the extra $9 saved by going with Higgins instead of Chase would have gone to better bye week coverage.

RB: If at the start of the season, I asked you which teams would fair better during their week 7 bye? Derrick Henry owners, or Chuba Hubbard owners plus $21, which would you take? I'm sure you would have been correct and said Henry owners. Because they only dropped at a 36% rate, while Hubbard's are feeding the buzzards at a 38% rate. What did you guys do with that all that money? Buy Calvin Ridley?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I find cases like Dotson interesting but it makes some sense if you figure roosters where the owner is paying more attention will have more representation of certain players that were seen as shark moves before the season.

Too much work but I wonder how the distribution of players among roosters by size of rooster would look over time.

-QG

are you talking about a cost distribution, teams distribution or position distribution?

I figured out why Dotson is not holding me back...I have a big enough roster that I can afford to lose one player per position.

Hence, Rodgers done, Chubb done, Dotson might as well be done. qed.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I find cases like Dotson interesting but it makes some sense if you figure roosters where the owner is paying more attention will have more representation of certain players that were seen as shark moves before the season.

Too much work but I wonder how the distribution of players among roosters by size of rooster would look over time.

-QG

are you talking about a cost distribution, teams distribution or position distribution?

I figured out why Dotson is not holding me back...I have a big enough roster that I can afford to lose one player per position.

Hence, Rodgers done, Chubb done, Dotson might as well be done. qed.

That Dotson is found more frequently as rooster size goes up.

-QG

 

[jdkapow]

There may be more, but I found 7 live teams that left at least $3 unspent. WHY???

There were 46 teams that spent no more than $247 on their rosters. One of them, NICK BIGGS (#100057) had a full 30-man roster, so they couldn't add a player with the leftover money. All the others could have added at least one player.

SNOOKS DOWD (#107819) spent only $184 on a 20-man roster, which of course makes absolutely no sense. However, they survived the first 6 weeks of the season before crashing and burning in week 7.

Four teams spent exactly $200 and I have this awful feeling that they thought that was the budget limit. They've all been eliminated, three of them in week 1 and the other in week 2.

The 10 teams that spent $240 or less have all been eliminated. Entry #104361 is the cheapest team that is still alive, at $241 for a 23-man roster.

Overall, 11 of these 46 teams are still alive, for a 24% survival rate (vs. 30% overall). So they're doing badly but not all that badly.

 

[JaBoo]

I find cases like Dotson interesting but it makes some sense if you figure roosters where the owner is paying more attention will have more representation of certain players that were seen as shark moves before the season.21

Too much work but I wonder how the distribution of players among roosters by size of rooster would look over time.

-QG

are you talking about a cost distribution, teams distribution or position distribution?

I figured out why Dotson is not holding me back...I have a big enough roster that I can afford to lose one player per position.

Hence, Rodgers done, Chubb done, Dotson might as well be done. qed.

That Dotson is found more frequently as rooster size goes up.

-QG

Below is a chart showing the percentage of surviving teams who rostered Dotson by roster size and week.

It does appear that the larger the roster, the more likely the owner was to roster Dotson. And despite his poor performance, his ownership rates generally increased. I was wondering if there was a player who, even with miserable scoring, had impressive survival rates. Does it hold that the owners who chose him were generally sharp, and created good enough teams to survive an under-performing selection in Dotson? If so, how long will it last?

*Because I can't figure out how to copy and paste into a table, I did not include teams with 18-20, 31 players who put Dotson on their rooster. #lazy

Roster Size	​ ​ ​ 21​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
Original Rosters	36%	38%	42%	42%	43%	49%	40%	46%	43%	34%
Week 1	37%	38%	42%	42%	44%	51%	42%	46%	41%	35%
Week 2	35%	37%	42%	43%	44%	52%	43%	46%	42%	36%
Week 3	34%	37%	41%	42%	43%	52%	45%	45%	43%	36%
Week 4	36%	38%	44%	42%	43%	51%	45%	45%	45%	34%
Week 5	33%	39%	43%	43%	44%	54%	43%	45%	45%	36%
Week 6	32%	39%	42%	45%	44%	53%	40%	47%	45%	40%

 

[TheWinz]

You know me - I can't resist when it comes to bashing the expensive K's. For $8 you could've had Tucker. He had a very strong week 6, and that catapulted him to K12 overall. Through 7 games, he has 60.2 points, a pretty healthy 8.6 PPG. Not counting the 6 kickers who should've never been rostered because they were all benchwarmers at least a week before the contest closed (Badgley, Fry, Gould, Shudak, Vizcaino, and York), there were 76 different combos totaling $8 (5 for $3, 12 for $4, and 2 for $5). Now, to be worth his price, you would expect that he outscore at least half of these 76 combos, right? Well, he is currently outscoring 5 out of 76. But surely he has to be doing better against the 60 combos you could've had for a buck less ($3 + $4). Yes, he is, but just barely. He is outscoring 5 out of 60. Perhaps he will fare better versus the 10 combos you could've had for only $6? Nope, all 10 combos have him beat. So, in total, he is outscoring only 10 out of 146 combos (6.8%), 70 of which you would've saved money on. Once again, he is one of the most common kickers from the start, and once again, he isn't worth it.

All of the above doesn't mean I don't like Tucker. He is the best kicker who has ever lived. He's just not worth rostering when you can take 2 kickers for his price. No one is.

 

[Stray Doug]

Added a bit of data to JaBoo's (also mine might be slightly diff on a couple of the %s because I'm using spreadsheet from jdkapow which allows me to remove staff entries, which the Analyzer doesn't do).

Key thing here seems to be the columns rather than the rows... it's not that Dotson "does better" on bigger rooster vs. smaller ones, it's just that his ownership from the outset was biased towards larger roosters (>40% for 23-29 man roosters, <30% for 18-19 man roosters). Given that at this point in the competition larger roosters have better overall survival rates than smaller roosters, then it makes sense that the higher survivability of rosters that selected him (larger ones) results in his ownership rate increasing despite middling-to-weak performance.

His peak ownership is on 26-man roosters (nearly 50% at the outset!) which have a 42.3% survival rate, whereas his low ownership is on 18-man roosters which have only a 25.3% survival rate.

It is interesting that his ownership rate has held steady or slightly increased for most rooster sizes (except 21, 23, 27, and 28)... I suspect that aspect of it may be the "sharp" effect (owners who selected him were generally paying a bit more attention and/or had a bit more skill than the average player who selected the same size rooster, which outweighs his meh performance to date).

18​

19​

20​

21​

22​

23​

24​

25​

26​

27​

28​

29​

30​

Pre-Week 1

22%​

29%​

35%​

36%​

38%​

42%​

43%​

43%​

49%​

40%​

46%​

43%​

34%​

Post-Week 1

22%​

28%​

36%​

37%​

38%​

42%​

42%​

44%​

51%​

42%​

47%​

41%​

35%​

Post-Week 2

21%​

28%​

36%​

35%​

37%​

42%​

43%​

44%​

52%​

43%​

47%​

42%​

36%​

Post-Week 3

20%​

27%​

36%​

34%​

37%​

42%​

42%​

43%​

52%​

46%​

46%​

43%​

35%​

Post-Week 4

21%​

29%​

38%​

35%​

38%​

44%​

44%​

44%​

50%​

46%​

45%​

45%​

34%​

Post-Week 5

21%​

29%​

38%​

33%​

39%​

44%​

43%​

44%​

54%​

43%​

47%​

45%​

35%​

Post-Week 6

21%​

28%​

36%​

32%​

39%​

42%​

46%​

44%​

54%​

40%​

45%​

45%​

39%​

Post-Week 7

21%​

29%​

36%​

32%​

40%​

41%​

45%​

46%​

54%​

39%​

45%​

44%​

38%​

 

[Stray Doug]

You know me - I can't resist when it comes to bashing the expensive K's. For $8 you could've had Tucker. He had a very strong week 6, and that catapulted him to K12 overall. Through 7 games, he has 60.2 points, a pretty healthy 8.6 PPG. Not counting the 6 kickers who should've never been rostered because they were all benchwarmers at least a week before the contest closed (Badgley, Fry, Gould, Shudak, Vizcaino, and York), there were 76 different combos totaling $8 (5 for $3, 12 for $4, and 2 for $5). Now, to be worth his price, you would expect that he outscore at least half of these 76 combos, right? Well, he is currently outscoring 5 out of 76. But surely he has to be doing better against the 60 combos you could've had for a buck less ($3 + $4). Yes, he is, but just barely. He is outscoring 5 out of 60. Perhaps he will fare better versus the 10 combos you could've had for only $6? Nope, all 10 combos have him beat. So, in total, he is outscoring only 10 out of 146 combos (6.8%), 70 of which you would've saved money on. Once again, he is one of the most common kickers from the start, and once again, he isn't worth it.

All of the above doesn't mean I don't like Tucker. He is the best kicker who has ever lived. He's just not worth rostering when you can take 2 kickers for his price. No one is.

Preaching to the choir, Winz!

I suspect if we looked through the 30 or so teams that Puppies is tracking from this forum (maybe more if we include the early eliminations?) we'd find most are aligned on K strategy... at least 2 cheap Ks (I'd include/justify $4 ones due to bye week preferences and/or job security concerns on the $3 ones), and most probably have 3. Same for D but a bit less convinced about the benefit of the 3rd one vs. the opportunity cost of those $3 since they don't generally score as high as the Ks and have zero injury risk.

 

[TheWinz]

You know me - I can't resist when it comes to bashing the expensive K's. For $8 you could've had Tucker. He had a very strong week 6, and that catapulted him to K12 overall. Through 7 games, he has 60.2 points, a pretty healthy 8.6 PPG. Not counting the 6 kickers who should've never been rostered because they were all benchwarmers at least a week before the contest closed (Badgley, Fry, Gould, Shudak, Vizcaino, and York), there were 76 different combos totaling $8 (5 for $3, 12 for $4, and 2 for $5). Now, to be worth his price, you would expect that he outscore at least half of these 76 combos, right? Well, he is currently outscoring 5 out of 76. But surely he has to be doing better against the 60 combos you could've had for a buck less ($3 + $4). Yes, he is, but just barely. He is outscoring 5 out of 60. Perhaps he will fare better versus the 10 combos you could've had for only $6? Nope, all 10 combos have him beat. So, in total, he is outscoring only 10 out of 146 combos (6.8%), 70 of which you would've saved money on. Once again, he is one of the most common kickers from the start, and once again, he isn't worth it.

All of the above doesn't mean I don't like Tucker. He is the best kicker who has ever lived. He's just not worth rostering when you can take 2 kickers for his price. No one is.

Preaching to the choir, Winz!

I suspect if we looked through the 30 or so teams that Puppies is tracking from this forum (maybe more if we include the early eliminations?) we'd find most are aligned on K strategy... at least 2 cheap Ks (I'd include/justify $4 ones due to bye week preferences and/or job security concerns on the $3 ones), and most probably have 3. Same for D but a bit less convinced about the benefit of the 3rd one vs. the opportunity cost of those $3 since they don't generally score as high as the Ks and have zero injury risk.

Since this year's prices for K's ranged from $3 to $8, I am fine with a $5 kicker, because you can't get 2 for that price. But the minute you pair that $5 guy with a guy over $3, you are now doing a 1-for-2 deal. And 1-for-2 deals at K suck. The "analyzer" has limitations, but I found that nearly half of the 10K entries rostered some form of a 1-for-2 deal at kicker.

And D's are even worse! Every year people flock to the high priced teams, and every year, they disappoint. This year PHI was tied for the most expensive at $7, and they were the 2nd most common, chosen by around 15% of the folks. They are averaging 6.86 PPG, placing them as D13. There were 115 combos for $6 or $7. I didn't do the math, but I am guessing PHI is outscoring less than 10% of them.

 

[Stray Doug]

You know me - I can't resist when it comes to bashing the expensive K's. For $8 you could've had Tucker. He had a very strong week 6, and that catapulted him to K12 overall. Through 7 games, he has 60.2 points, a pretty healthy 8.6 PPG. Not counting the 6 kickers who should've never been rostered because they were all benchwarmers at least a week before the contest closed (Badgley, Fry, Gould, Shudak, Vizcaino, and York), there were 76 different combos totaling $8 (5 for $3, 12 for $4, and 2 for $5). Now, to be worth his price, you would expect that he outscore at least half of these 76 combos, right? Well, he is currently outscoring 5 out of 76. But surely he has to be doing better against the 60 combos you could've had for a buck less ($3 + $4). Yes, he is, but just barely. He is outscoring 5 out of 60. Perhaps he will fare better versus the 10 combos you could've had for only $6? Nope, all 10 combos have him beat. So, in total, he is outscoring only 10 out of 146 combos (6.8%), 70 of which you would've saved money on. Once again, he is one of the most common kickers from the start, and once again, he isn't worth it.

All of the above doesn't mean I don't like Tucker. He is the best kicker who has ever lived. He's just not worth rostering when you can take 2 kickers for his price. No one is.

Preaching to the choir, Winz!

I suspect if we looked through the 30 or so teams that Puppies is tracking from this forum (maybe more if we include the early eliminations?) we'd find most are aligned on K strategy... at least 2 cheap Ks (I'd include/justify $4 ones due to bye week preferences and/or job security concerns on the $3 ones), and most probably have 3. Same for D but a bit less convinced about the benefit of the 3rd one vs. the opportunity cost of those $3 since they don't generally score as high as the Ks and have zero injury risk.

Since this year's prices for K's ranged from $3 to $8, I am fine with a $5 kicker, because you can't get 2 for that price. But the minute you pair that $5 guy with a guy over $3, you are now doing a 1-for-2 deal. And 1-for-2 deals at K suck. The "analyzer" has limitations, but I found that nearly half of the 10K entries rostered some form of a 1-for-2 deal at kicker.

And D's are even worse! Every year people flock to the high priced teams, and every year, they disappoint. This year PHI was tied for the most expensive at $7, and they were the 2nd most common, chosen by around 15% of the folks. They are averaging 6.86 PPG, placing them as D13. There were 115 combos for $6 or $7. I didn't do the math, but I am guessing PHI is outscoring less than 10% of them.

*sigh*... then I'm in the 10%

 

[TheWinz]

You know me - I can't resist when it comes to bashing the expensive K's. For $8 you could've had Tucker. He had a very strong week 6, and that catapulted him to K12 overall. Through 7 games, he has 60.2 points, a pretty healthy 8.6 PPG. Not counting the 6 kickers who should've never been rostered because they were all benchwarmers at least a week before the contest closed (Badgley, Fry, Gould, Shudak, Vizcaino, and York), there were 76 different combos totaling $8 (5 for $3, 12 for $4, and 2 for $5). Now, to be worth his price, you would expect that he outscore at least half of these 76 combos, right? Well, he is currently outscoring 5 out of 76. But surely he has to be doing better against the 60 combos you could've had for a buck less ($3 + $4). Yes, he is, but just barely. He is outscoring 5 out of 60. Perhaps he will fare better versus the 10 combos you could've had for only $6? Nope, all 10 combos have him beat. So, in total, he is outscoring only 10 out of 146 combos (6.8%), 70 of which you would've saved money on. Once again, he is one of the most common kickers from the start, and once again, he isn't worth it.

All of the above doesn't mean I don't like Tucker. He is the best kicker who has ever lived. He's just not worth rostering when you can take 2 kickers for his price. No one is.

Preaching to the choir, Winz!

I suspect if we looked through the 30 or so teams that Puppies is tracking from this forum (maybe more if we include the early eliminations?) we'd find most are aligned on K strategy... at least 2 cheap Ks (I'd include/justify $4 ones due to bye week preferences and/or job security concerns on the $3 ones), and most probably have 3. Same for D but a bit less convinced about the benefit of the 3rd one vs. the opportunity cost of those $3 since they don't generally score as high as the Ks and have zero injury risk.

Since this year's prices for K's ranged from $3 to $8, I am fine with a $5 kicker, because you can't get 2 for that price. But the minute you pair that $5 guy with a guy over $3, you are now doing a 1-for-2 deal. And 1-for-2 deals at K suck. The "analyzer" has limitations, but I found that nearly half of the 10K entries rostered some form of a 1-for-2 deal at kicker.

And D's are even worse! Every year people flock to the high priced teams, and every year, they disappoint. This year PHI was tied for the most expensive at $7, and they were the 2nd most common, chosen by around 15% of the folks. They are averaging 6.86 PPG, placing them as D13. There were 115 combos for $6 or $7. I didn't do the math, but I am guessing PHI is outscoring less than 10% of them.

*sigh*... then I'm in the 10%

At least you know your team is built to "go for broke"

 

[QuizGuy66]

Surely with Dotson it is the fact that he is letting the down the brilliant owners who roostered him

Correlation between players is one of those interesting effects under the surface of the contest. Pricing neighborhoods come into play of course. 30-man rooster has an average player value of just over $8. For 18-man roosters it is #almost $14 so naturally folks are shopping different parts of the list.

The funny thing with defenses is that scoring doesn't fall along the lines of good real-world defenses. There is no penalty to a defense that gives up a ton of yards and points. Ironically bad defenses are out there for more plays so there are more chances to get a sack or turnover. And more chance of a random kickoff return score as well . And maybe a little regression to the mean is in the mix as well that drags some of the well regarded defenses before the season back to the pack.

-QG

 

[joey]

Pricing neighborhoods

Fantastic term. Thanks for that.

 

[Irelad]

Surely with Dotson it is the fact that he is letting the down the brilliant owners who roostered him

Correlation between players is one of those interesting effects under the surface of the contest. Pricing neighborhoods come into play of course. 30-man rooster has an average player value of just over $8. For 18-man roosters it is #almost $14 so naturally folks are shopping different parts of the list.

The funny thing with defenses is that scoring doesn't fall along the lines of good real-world defenses. There is no penalty to a defense that gives up a ton of yards and points. Ironically bad defenses are out there for more plays so there are more chances to get a sack or turnover. And more chance of a random kickoff return score as well . And maybe a little regression to the mean is in the mix as well that drags some of the well regarded defenses before the season back to the pack.

-QG

That happens quite a bit. Let me preface this next part by saying that I am a Falcons fan, and in no way do I think the Falcons have a good defense. That being said, I watched the Week 5 game where the Falcons beat the Texans 21-19, and the defense played really well that game. However, due to lack of sacks, fumbles, interceptions, anything fantasy scoring related, they put up 0 fantasy points.

 

[TheWinz]

Surely with Dotson it is the fact that he is letting the down the brilliant owners who roostered him

Correlation between players is one of those interesting effects under the surface of the contest. Pricing neighborhoods come into play of course. 30-man rooster has an average player value of just over $8. For 18-man roosters it is #almost $14 so naturally folks are shopping different parts of the list.

The funny thing with defenses is that scoring doesn't fall along the lines of good real-world defenses. There is no penalty to a defense that gives up a ton of yards and points. Ironically bad defenses are out there for more plays so there are more chances to get a sack or turnover. And more chance of a random kickoff return score as well . And maybe a little regression to the mean is in the mix as well that drags some of the well regarded defenses before the season back to the pack.

-QG

That happens quite a bit. Let me preface this next part by saying that I am a Falcons fan, and in no way do I think the Falcons have a good defense. That being said, I watched the Week 5 game where the Falcons beat the Texans 21-19, and the defense played really well that game. However, due to lack of sacks, fumbles, interceptions, anything fantasy scoring related, they put up 0 fantasy points.

Through the first 7 weeks, there have been 1339 points scored by D's. Here is the breakdown:
41.2 % - Sacks - 551 x 1 point per = 551 points
25.7% - INT's - 172 x 2 points per = 344 points
17.5% - Fumble recoveries - 117 x 2 points per = 234 points
8.5% - TD (INT) - 19 x 6 points per = 114 points
4.5% - TD (Fumble recovery) - 10 x 6 points per = 60 points
1.3% - TD (Punt return) - 3 x 6 points per = 18 points
0.9% - TD (Kickoff return) - 2 x 6 points per = 12 points
0.4% - TD (Blocked FG return) - 1 x 6 points per = 6 points

- BAL is leading the NFL in sacks with 29. They are currently D13
- SF is leading the NFL in INT's with 11. They are currently D22
- TB is leading the NFL in fumble recoveries with 7. They are currently D11
- NE is leading the NFL in INT TD's with 3. They are currently D31
- CHI is leading the NFL in fumble recovery TD's with 2. They are currently D26

I only posted all this to show how random D scoring is for this contest. The secret to picking D's IMO is to find QB's who get sacked alot, and throw lots of INT's, and then pick a few D's that have great matchups against these types of QB's. My favorite example of this was the 2019/2020 Tampa Bay Bucs. In 2019 the Bucs gave up 107 contest points just in sacks & INT's. The following year the Bucs gave up 46 contest points in sacks & INT's. Why? Because they switched from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady. When two-thirds of your D's points are generated from sacks & INT's, it's better to look at the opposing QB rather than the D itself. The best D's facing guys like Brady & Rodgers are not going to score as well as crappy D's facing guys like Winston & Favre.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Starting the week with Kincaid and Otton - hopefully it is a good start.
-QG

 

[TheWinz]

Starting the week with Kincaid and Otton - hopefully it is a good start.
-QG

I'm rolling with James Cook. Let's get this party started!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Well we're in good shape cuz both Cook and Kincaid are on my regular fantasy team's bench

-QG

 

[jdkapow]

Only one guy tonight, but it's Gabe Davis.

 

[TheWinz]

Crappy start to the week with a mere 7.8 from James Cook. But he is on just over 25% of remaining teams, so his suckage isn't that bad.

 

[QuizGuy66]

So Kincaid came up with a nice 20 points and Otton with an 8.70 that is respectable enough if it needs to be used. I'll take it.
-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Quick summary of my rooster by position in terms of scoring. (Flex usage: WR 9, TE 5, RB - ZERO )

WR1	199​	28.43​
RB1	174​	24.86​
QB	143.6​	20.51​
WR2	131.2​	18.74​
TE	110.7​	15.81​
PK	103.1​	14.73​
RB2	100.3​	14.33​
FLEX1	97.5​	13.93​
FLEX2	72.9​	10.41​
DEF	54​	7.71​

-QG

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Only one guy tonight, but it's Gabe Davis.

I love it when Gabe decides to show up (23.7)!!

 

[JaBoo]

After Week 7, here are the 5 most popular players remaining by position: My team has 2 of the QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs and Ks on this list but none of the TDs. I don't know how I feel about my roster being so average. However, it is better than the 31 teams who are still surviving but do not have a quarterback this week. GL to all!


QB: (remaining teams/original teams) (survival rate)

1. Sam Howell (874/2383) (37%)
2. Jordan Love (560/1698) (33%)
3. Kenny Pickett (535/1848) (29%)
4. Tua Tagovailoa (472/1327) (36%)
5. Jared Goff (436/1318) (33%)

RB:

1. Alvin Kamara (840/1998) (42%),
2. James Cook (756/2152) (35%),
3. Raheem Mostert (749/1691) (44%),
4. Khalil Herbert (648/2016) (32%),
5. Zack Moss (637/1313) (49%)

WR:

1. Zay Flowers (979/2659) (37%),
2. Jahan Dotson (932/2985) (31%),
3. Calvin Ridley (703/2551) (28%),
4. George Pickens (568/1783) (32%),
5. Puka Nacua (488/908) (54%)

TE:

1. Darren Waller (1362/3754) (36%),
2. Sam LaPorta (873/2099) (42%),
3. Luke Musgrave (724/2057) (35%),
4. Dalton Kincaid (611/2115) (29%),
5. Jake Ferguson (530/1492) (36%)

PK:

1. Cameron Dicker (705/2413) (29%),
2. Dustin Hopkins (494/1220) (40%),
3. Greg Zuerlein (417/1296) (32%),
4. Brandon McManus (407/1216) (33%),
5. Jason Sanders (400/1202) (33%)

TD:

1. Baltimore Ravens (496/1588) (31%),
2. Los Angeles Chargers (493/1272) (39%),
3. Detroit Lions (481/1333) (36%),
4. Washington Commanders (446/1389) (32%),
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (409/1127) (36%)

 

[QuizGuy66]

11 of the 25 on my rooster are on that list but the 4 I consider my most important players are not

-QG

 

[jdkapow]

I have 12 on my 24-man roster. Two in every category except three TEs and only one K.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Pickett and Goff, Mostert, Pickens and Dotson, Waller and LaPorta, Hopkins and Zuerlein, Lions or 10 of my 22 (or 10 of my 20 excluding Chubb and Aaron Rodgers).

None of the remainder are particularly studly....which I hope drives diversification and survival to the finals. I don't have aspirations beyond that.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Pickett and Goff, Mostert, Pickens and Dotson, Waller and LaPorta, Hopkins and Zuerlein, Lions or 10 of my 22 (or 10 of my 20 excluding Chubb and Aaron Rodgers).

None of the remainder are particularly studly....which I hope drives diversification and survival to the finals. I don't have aspirations beyond that.

You say that now VBD but I know when you're in the finals it is time!



-QG

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Pickett and Goff, Mostert, Pickens and Dotson, Waller and LaPorta, Hopkins and Zuerlein, Lions or 10 of my 22 (or 10 of my 20 excluding Chubb and Aaron Rodgers).

None of the remainder are particularly studly....which I hope drives diversification and survival to the finals. I don't have aspirations beyond that.

You say that now VBD but I know when you're in the finals it is time!



-QG

lol. I made it to the finals ONCE.

 

[TheWinz]

Pickett and Goff, Mostert, Pickens and Dotson, Waller and LaPorta, Hopkins and Zuerlein, Lions or 10 of my 22 (or 10 of my 20 excluding Chubb and Aaron Rodgers).

None of the remainder are particularly studly....which I hope drives diversification and survival to the finals. I don't have aspirations beyond that.

You say that now VBD but I know when you're in the finals it is time!



-QG

lol. I made it to the finals ONCE.

I have never made it to the finals. Not even close, really. I just spend all my time trying to sound like I know the winning strategy, then I get booted before week 10.
P.S. Never roster expensive K's or D's. Take it from me. I know what I'm talking about.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I made the finals once and like nine players on my rooster got hurt so I finished 250th

-QG

 

[stubby]

Made it once, also.

 

[Desert_Power]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

 

[Desert_Power]

After Week 7, here are the 5 most popular players remaining by position: My team has 2 of the QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs and Ks on this list but none of the TDs. I don't know how I feel about my roster being so average. However, it is better than the 31 teams who are still surviving but do not have a quarterback this week. GL to all!


QB: (remaining teams/original teams) (survival rate)

1. Sam Howell (874/2383) (37%)
2. Jordan Love (560/1698) (33%)
3. Kenny Pickett (535/1848) (29%)
4. Tua Tagovailoa (472/1327) (36%)
5. Jared Goff (436/1318) (33%)

RB:

1. Alvin Kamara (840/1998) (42%),
2. James Cook (756/2152) (35%),
3. Raheem Mostert (749/1691) (44%),
4. Khalil Herbert (648/2016) (32%),
5. Zack Moss (637/1313) (49%)

WR:

1. Zay Flowers (979/2659) (37%),
2. Jahan Dotson (932/2985) (31%),
3. Calvin Ridley (703/2551) (28%),
4. George Pickens (568/1783) (32%),
5. Puka Nacua (488/908) (54%)

TE:

1. Darren Waller (1362/3754) (36%),
2. Sam LaPorta (873/2099) (42%),
3. Luke Musgrave (724/2057) (35%),
4. Dalton Kincaid (611/2115) (29%),
5. Jake Ferguson (530/1492) (36%)

PK:

1. Cameron Dicker (705/2413) (29%),
2. Dustin Hopkins (494/1220) (40%),
3. Greg Zuerlein (417/1296) (32%),
4. Brandon McManus (407/1216) (33%),
5. Jason Sanders (400/1202) (33%)

TD:

1. Baltimore Ravens (496/1588) (31%),
2. Los Angeles Chargers (493/1272) (39%),
3. Detroit Lions (481/1333) (36%),
4. Washington Commanders (446/1389) (32%),
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (409/1127) (36%)

3 QB/1 RB/0 WR/1 TE/1 PK/1 TD

 

[rider down]

Thanks to all who contribute to this thread, this is probably my favorite thread to follow. Usually I am out by now, this year its just a matter of time at this point. This thread keeps it interesting after an early exit.

 

[Dacomish]

Pickett and Goff, Mostert, Pickens and Dotson, Waller and LaPorta, Hopkins and Zuerlein, Lions or 10 of my 22 (or 10 of my 20 excluding Chubb and Aaron Rodgers).

None of the remainder are particularly studly....which I hope drives diversification and survival to the finals. I don't have aspirations beyond that.

I like it, diversification is key once you get there, but enough firepower to compete. Made it 2x in the past 4 years in odd years so hoping to get there again, but not holding my breath.

 

[TheWinz]

Thanks to all who contribute to this thread, this is probably my favorite thread to follow. Usually I am out by now, this year its just a matter of time at this point. This thread keeps it interesting after an early exit.

Care to share your team with the masses?

 

[TheWinz]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Show us your team!

 

[JaBoo]

I set out this morning to answer the question, "Just how hard is Puca carrying his teams?". My theory was his outstanding performance was bringing a lot of subpar teams along for the ride. If he had not played, many of those teams would have been cut along the way. To answer it, I ran an experiment, what would have happened if Puca had been injuried before the season started. I replaced his scores each week with 0's and recalculated each team's scores, the cutline, and who would have survived (Adjusted Alive Entries).

I found that only 45% of Puca owners alive after week 7 would have been overtaken by the Turk without him. I was curious how that compares to other high performing wideouts. That chart is below.

Player	Total Points Scored	Cost to Roster	Currently Alive Entries	Adjusted Alive Entries	Percent of Rosters Lost without Player
Tyreek Hill​	186.6​	33​	422​	142​	66.35%​
Stefon Diggs​	158.8​	32​	148​	34​	77.03%​
A.J. Brown​	150.9​	30​	256​	76​	70.31%​
Puka Nacua​	145.6​	3​	488​	271​	44.47%​
Keenan Allen​	136.45​	21​	291​	165​	43.30%​
DJ Moore​	133.6​	18​	336​	168​	50.00%​
Ja'Marr Chase​	123.8​	36​	123​	63​	48.78%​
Amon-Ra St. Brown​	125.1​	30​	477​	186​	61.01%​
Adam Thielen​	124.5​	11​	256​	140​	45.31%​

Some things I found interesting from this exercise:

• Spending up on WR looks good. Many of the highest priced players appear on this list of top scorers
• It looks like "Building around a stud" mentality happens at that $30 level. The entries rostering players above $30 have trouble fielding a competitive team without them.
• I think a lot of Digg's owners are going to be singing along to Maria Carey during the Bill's bye in week 13, I can't live, if living is without you!

Some additional questions I have and would be interested in ya'lls insights and theories.

• Why do the Ja'Marr Chase rosters seem to be so well insulated from him not playing?
• Keenan and Puca have put up similar points, Keenan cost 7x more than Puca, and yet his teams are less reliant on him. How could Puca teams do worse, given they had $18 more to spend on other players?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Some of the Diggs help might depend on how many other week 13 guys they have.

Waller and Kincaid were the 2 guys that come to mind in that regard.

About 1800 live roosters have at least one of them with 170 or so (including me) having both.

Of 146 Diggs owners 72 of them have at least one of Waller or Kincaid (8 of those have both of them along with Diggs)

Chase's bye was the big bye - week 7 - so surely a lot of his owners laid off other big week 7 guys (though at least one of them also has Burrow )

Puka is becoming a bit more like an index stock - very broadly owned may partially explain why removing him doesn't sink a subset of owners - because surely the cut line moves down more if he is out of the equation.

-QG

 

[Puppies]

Top 12 at Each Position through 7 weeks:

POS	Last	First	TOTAL​	AVERAGE​
QB	Mahomes	Patrick	206.25​	29.46​
QB	Hurts	Jalen	200.45​	28.64​
QB	Cousins	Kirk	195.45​	27.92​
QB	Jackson	Lamar	191.80​	27.40​
QB	Tagovailoa	Tua	190.40​	27.20​
QB	Goff	Jared	170.40​	24.34​
QB	Allen	Josh	166.15​	27.69​
QB	Wilson	Russell	166.05​	23.72​
QB	Purdy	Brock	163.40​	23.34​
QB	Herbert	Justin	162.65​	27.11​
QB	Howell	Sam	152.35​	21.76​
QB	Fields	Justin	149.75​	24.96​
RB	McCaffrey	Christian	161.60​	23.09​
RB	Mostert	Raheem	138.00​	19.71​
RB	Etienne Jr.	Travis	124.00​	17.71​
RB	Williams	Kyren	104.60​	17.43​
RB	Moss	Zack	101.30​	16.88​
RB	Achane	De'Von	99.20​	24.80​
RB	Swift	D'Andre	95.20​	13.60​
RB	Pacheco	Isiah	92.70​	13.24​
RB	Robinson Jr.	Brian	85.30​	12.19​
RB	Robinson	Bijan	84.30​	12.04​
RB	Montgomery	David	84.10​	16.82​
RB	Henry	Derrick	83.80​	13.97​
WR	Hill	Tyreek	186.60​	26.66​
WR	Diggs	Stefon	158.80​	22.69​
WR	Brown	A.J.	150.90​	21.56​
WR	Nacua	Puka	145.60​	20.80​
WR	Allen	Keenan	136.45​	22.74​
WR	Moore	DJ	133.60​	19.09​
WR	St. Brown	Amon-Ra	125.10​	20.85​
WR	Thielen	Adam	124.50​	20.75​
WR	Chase	Ja'Marr	123.80​	20.63​
WR	Adams	Davante	116.80​	16.69​
WR	Jefferson	Justin	111.10​	22.22​
WR	Meyers	Jakobi	105.50​	17.58​
TE	Kelce	Travis	148.50​	24.75​
TE	Hockenson	T.J.	121.50​	17.36​
TE	LaPorta	Sam	108.20​	15.46​
TE	Andrews	Mark	107.70​	17.95​
TE	Waller	Darren	96.50​	13.79​
TE	Engram	Evan	96.10​	13.73​
TE	Goedert	Dallas	90.90​	12.99​
TE	Kittle	George	82.10​	11.73​
TE	Kmet	Cole	79.60​	11.37​
TE	Smith	Jonnu	78.90​	11.27​
TE	Pitts	Kyle	72.90​	10.41​
TE	Schultz	Dalton	71.00​	11.83​
PK	Elliott	Jake	85.40​	12.20​
PK	Hopkins	Dustin	82.80​	13.80​
PK	Maher	Brett	81.20​	11.60​
PK	Butker	Harrison	77.50​	11.07​
PK	McManus	Brandon	74.10​	10.59​
PK	Fairbairn	Ka'imi	71.40​	11.90​
PK	Moody	Jake	65.10​	9.30​
PK	Myers	Jason	62.20​	10.37​
PK	Gay	Matt	60.80​	10.13​
PK	Tucker	Justin	60.20​	8.60​
PK	Bass	Tyler	59.80​	9.97​
DEF	Cowboys	Dallas	64.00​	10.67​
DEF	Bills	Buffalo	59.00​	8.43​
DEF	Jaguars	Jacksonville	57.00​	8.14​
DEF	Steelers	Pittsburgh	55.00​	9.17​
DEF	Chargers	LosAngeles	54.00​	7.71​
DEF	Bengals	Cincinnati	51.00​	8.50​
DEF	Jets	NewYork	51.00​	8.50​
DEF	Vikings	Minnesota	49.00​	7.00​
DEF	Saints	NewOrleans	49.00​	7.00​
DEF	Seahawks	Seattle	49.00​	8.17​
DEF	Commanders	Washington	49.00​	7.00​
DEF	Eagles	Philadelphia	48.00​	6.86​

 

[JIslander]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Me neither and I have no idea where I'm sitting, but still alive ---

 

[TheWinz]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Me neither and I have no idea where I'm sitting, but still alive ---

Post your team. We like to root for board regulars.

 

[JIslander]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Me neither and I have no idea where I'm sitting, but still alive ---

Post your team. We like to root for board regulars.

I'm # 106937 QB Lamar Jackson
QB Tua Tagovailoa
RB Christian McCaffrey
RB Khalil Herbert
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Gus Edwards
RB Cordarrelle Patterson -
WR Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brandon Aiyuk
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR Marvin Jones Jr.
TE Travis Kelce
TE Dawson Knox
PK Jason Myers
PK Harrison Butker
TD San Francisco 49ers
TD Baltimore Ravens

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Me neither and I have no idea where I'm sitting, but still alive ---

Post your team. We like to root for board regulars.

I'm # 106937 QB Lamar Jackson
QB Tua Tagovailoa
RB Christian McCaffrey
RB Khalil Herbert
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Gus Edwards
RB Cordarrelle Patterson -
WR Ja'Marr Chase
WR Brandon Aiyuk
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR Marvin Jones Jr.
TE Travis Kelce
TE Dawson Knox
PK Jason Myers
PK Harrison Butker
TD San Francisco 49ers
TD Baltimore Ravens

Studs everywhere!

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Not sure why I never paid more attention to this thread before this season. Best on the site with all the data analysis going on.

Show us your team!

Long time participant, Didn't join the JB challenge again this yr and didn't post lineup (superstitious), but did finish in the playoffs last yr for maybe only the 3rd or 4th time in ~25. I don't spend a lot of time on my entries and this year was no different. Was only a few above cut line this week and now that ive posted my lineup it will likely be kiss of death.

FF_WMD
QB Tua Tagovailoa - $14 0.00
QB Brock Purdy - $12 0.00
QB Sam Howell - $8 0.00

RB Saquon Barkley - $31 0.00
RB Tony Pollard - $29 0.00
RB Jaylen Warren - $11 0.00
RB Tyjae Spears - $9 0.00

WR Jaylen Waddle - $28 0.00
WR Jahan Dotson - $14 0.00
WR Michael Gallup - $9 0.00
WR Marvin Mims Jr. - $8 0.00
WR Jayden Reed - $7 0.00
WR Kendrick Bourne - $4 0.00
WR Tank Dell - $3 0.00
WR Puka Nacua - $3 0.00

TE David Njoku - $14 0.00
TE Tyler Conklin - $7 0.00
TE Jake Ferguson - $6 0.00
TE Noah Gray - $3 0.00

PK Graham Gano - $4 0.00
PK Chris Boswell - $4 0.00
PK Brandon McManus - $4 0.00
PK Cameron Dicker - $4 0.00

TD New Orleans Saints - $6
TD Cincinnati Bengals - $5
TD Detroit Lions - $3

 

[TheWinz]

Long time participant, Didn't join the JB challenge again this yr and didn't post lineup (superstitious), but did finish in the playoffs last yr for maybe only the 3rd or 4th time in ~25. I don't spend a lot of time on my entries and this year was no different. Was only a few above cut line this week and now that ive posted my lineup it will likely be kiss of death.

I don't believe an old-timer fell for the "post your lineup" routine. Everyone gets booted the week they show their hand!

 

[JIslander]

Long time participant, Didn't join the JB challenge again this yr and didn't post lineup (superstitious), but did finish in the playoffs last yr for maybe only the 3rd or 4th time in ~25. I don't spend a lot of time on my entries and this year was no different. Was only a few above cut line this week and now that ive posted my lineup it will likely be kiss of death.

I don't believe an old-timer fell for the "post your lineup" routine. Everyone gets booted the week they show their hand!

Well I fell pretty easy to that request

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Haha, I knew it!