2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[jdkapow]

Using FBG projections for tomorrow night, I get a final cutline of 152.7.

For those sweating, what happens if everyone hits their projections and Herbert hits 15 and 20?

His baseline projection is a little over 10. If he gets to 20, the cutline is 154.75. If he reaches 30, it goes to 156.25. So, roughly, 5 points for Herbert is 1 point of cutline (after he reaches a threshold, obviously).

 

[BroncosFan07]

Using FBG projections for tomorrow night, I get a final cutline of 152.7.

For those sweating, what happens if everyone hits their projections and Herbert hits 15 and 20?

His baseline projection is a little over 10. If he gets to 20, the cutline is 154.75. If he reaches 30, it goes to 156.25. So, roughly, 5 points for Herbert is 1 point of cutline (after he reaches a threshold, obviously).

Thank you. Good to see that he single handily can’t drastically move the cut. It’ll take a shootout and a lot of scoring by the guys listed below to have it approach 160.

Khalil Herbert 163
Ty Chandler 129
Cairo Santos 92
DJ Moore 78
Jordan Addison 69
Chicago Bears 56
Alexander Mattison 54
T.J. Hockenson 49
Roschon Johnson 46
Justin Fields 37
Greg Joseph 34

 

[Stray Doug]

Oof, looks like I'm about a half point into the lion's mouth with George Santos-6.3 to go... need that net score to be >= cut lion movement+0.4. A solid 12+ night should do it? I'm thinking I've got roughly 1 in 4 odds.

 

[a_troll00]

I'm sitting at 153.5 with Roschon Johnson (-7.7) , Cairo Santos (-13.3) and Chicago D (-11) to go. So, my score isn't going to much much tomorrow night, if it does at all.

Currently, I have a chance, but it's going to be really tight. Unfortunately, Zay Flowers gave it to me really rough tonight, and it wasn't pleasant. So, in the morning gonna see what the damage from the Sunday night game is.

If I exit this week, the blame goes solely on my RBs and TEs. I've currently have $57 in dead money in those two positions and it shows.

 

[Skipdog77]

Nice being able to watch the MNF game without having to sweat the Turk.
Sitting at 190.90, with Herbert and Chandler (-13.10), Cairo (Don't Call Me George) Santos (-13.20), and Chicago D (-11.00), still going.

Good luck to all those still battling tonight!

 

[(HULK)]

164.7 + T Chandler -13, so probably 164.7.

I can't believe I'll be moving on again. Next week I think between injuries and byes I'll have 105 to 108 in dead money. Strangely, I won't have any gaps at any position, but both TE and kicker will be down to a single player so I'll have a lot riding on the performance of Jake Ferguson and Dicker.

I keep thinking every week is the end of the line and keep surviving but at this point, clearing week 13 is approaching miracle-required status.

 

[Kruegs]

151.8 and the horses are in the barn. Barring some weirdness this’ll be my exit week, which is amazing since I’ve had Chubb and Waller as dead money pretty much all season.

Already looking forward to next season, and a huge thanks to the regular posters who keep track of things and post all the interesting stats for this contest. I don’t post much, but always read and you are appreciated!

Best of luck to everyone still standing!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

155 with Baltimore D -9 going now. Hoping it's enough.

No need to hoe. That’s been enough for eons.

Don't judge me. I'll do anything to survive in this contest.

 

[a_troll00]

So... cutline after Sunday night game is 148.25

I'm toast.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Yeah so I am 30 places from the bottom. Repeat of my finals performance a bunch of years ago came a couple weeks early.



-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

So....what is the cutline if Herbert reaches 40?

-QG

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

So... cutline after Sunday night game is 148.25

I'm toast.

I'm sitting at 151 with Herbert (-10.2) and Santos (-6.6). It's been a good run.

 

[BassNBrew]

So... cutline after Sunday night game is 148.25

I'm toast.

I'm sitting at 151 with Herbert (-10.2) and Santos (-6.6). It's been a good run.

May hold. You hold two of the top 3 line movers. I'd give you a slightly better than 50% chance of advancing.

 

[cstruk]

I’m done. 147.60 after taking a 0 at TE and 1 point at D.

Good luck to those who are still alive!

 

[Adam Harstad]

Hey friendos. Long time. Haven't wanted to say anything before this lest I jinx myself, but I'm in the Final 500 (my first, IIRC), so I'm playing on house money now.

I'm definitely a "dash a team off in 10 minutes and hope for the best" kind of guy, but I've followed these threads over the years to stay abreast of best practices and whatnot, and wanted to thank y'all for all the hard work you do. I don't always follow them, but they're always useful.

 

[Adam Harstad]

120 very happy Lutz owners
-QG

I've only had two weeks where I finished within 30 points of the cut lion and Lutz saved my hindquarters in both of them. 6.6 away in Week 7 (Lutz had 15.9, my next-best kicker had 7) and 12.2 away in Week 11 (Lutz had 18.1, my next-best kicker had 3).

 

[Balco]

182.30 - running backs did the heavy lifting thanks to nice games by Kyren Williams and Mostert. And Christian Watson looked healthy.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Also interesting given all the discussion this offseason about the tighter pricing leading to smaller rosters being more optimal than usual, here's survival rates for all teams with at least $250 spent. (Doesn't include Week 12 yet.)

18 players -- 142/4040 (3.5%)
19 -- 82/1333 (6.2%)
20 -- 75/1029 (7.3%)
21 -- 61/759 (8.0%)
22 -- 56/604 (9.3%)
23 -- 57/442 (12.9%)
24 -- 54/330 (16.6%)
25 -- 45/228 (19.8%)
26 -- 31/164 (18.9%)
27 -- 16/86 (18.6%)
28 -- 17/73 (23.3%)
29 -- 17/63 (27.0%!)
30 -- 13/85 (15.3%)

Some small sample size weirdness at the tails there, but looking at 24+ player rosters, you're at 193/1029 surviving, an 18.8% survival rate. I don't know if *BIGGER* is better (things look fairly flat past 24/25), but it does look like *BIG* is better. Specifically, it looks every additional player you could add up to the 24-25 range was worth the cost, though the tradeoffs are much more even beyond that.

With some caveats. Might be a season-specific thing (bigger rosters probably pushed more to guys like Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, who have been especially valuable this year, while smaller rosters were probably over-indexed on e.g. Justin Jefferson), might be lurking variables (higher roster counts are more likely to include 3PK rosters, lower roster counts are more likely to include 2PKs, and 3PKs is a stronger build than 2PKs), and also especially on the more popular numbers you tend to a much higher percentage of casual entries (I think the 24-man rosters were likely much sharper on average than the 18-man rosters). Also, there's the distinction of larger rosters being better optimized for making the finals but less optimized for winning once there.

 

[QuizGuy66]

120 very happy Lutz owners
-QG

I've only had two weeks where I finished within 30 points of the cut lion and Lutz saved my hindquarters in both of them. 6.6 away in Week 7 (Lutz had 15.9, my next-best kicker had 7) and 12.2 away in Week 11 (Lutz had 18.1, my next-best kicker had 3).

Yeah I think that is a lesson of this year.

If a team spends capital to get a veteran kicker (usually with a prior coach connection) that is about as solid a link as you can get - it is why I grabbed Hopkins.

I don't think the draft capital spent on rookie kickers is as clear cut though - they still seem to be able to lose their jobs.

-QG

 

[Puppies]

Also interesting given all the discussion this offseason about the tighter pricing leading to smaller rosters being more optimal than usual, here's survival rates for all teams with at least $250 spent. (Doesn't include Week 12 yet.)

18 players -- 142/4040 (3.5%)
19 -- 82/1333 (6.2%)
20 -- 75/1029 (7.3%)
21 -- 61/759 (8.0%)
22 -- 56/604 (9.3%)
23 -- 57/442 (12.9%)
24 -- 54/330 (16.6%)
25 -- 45/228 (19.8%)
26 -- 31/164 (18.9%)
27 -- 16/86 (18.6%)
28 -- 17/73 (23.3%)
29 -- 17/63 (27.0%!)
30 -- 13/85 (15.3%)

Some small sample size weirdness at the tails there, but looking at 24+ player rosters, you're at 193/1029 surviving, an 18.8% survival rate. I don't know if *BIGGER* is better (things look fairly flat past 24/25), but it does look like *BIG* is better. Specifically, it looks every additional player you could add up to the 24-25 range was worth the cost, though the tradeoffs are much more even beyond that.

With some caveats. Might be a season-specific thing (bigger rosters probably pushed more to guys like Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, who have been especially valuable this year, while smaller rosters were probably over-indexed on e.g. Justin Jefferson), might be lurking variables (higher roster counts are more likely to include 3PK rosters, lower roster counts are more likely to include 2PKs, and 3PKs is a stronger build than 2PKs), and also especially on the more popular numbers you tend to a much higher percentage of casual entries (I think the 24-man rosters were likely much sharper on average than the 18-man rosters). Also, there's the distinction of larger rosters being better optimized for making the finals but less optimized for winning once there.

I've tracked it for several years and I have observed that the survival rates are always distributed pretty much the way they are this year. Last year the sweet spot was 27 and 28 player teams, with final survival rates of 4.06% and 4.07%. Next best after that was 24 at 3.50%, 25 at 3.37% and 30 at 3.10%, and 23 at 3.09%.

We still have this week plus 2 more weeks to go, so I expect the best survival rate to once again be around 4% after 14 weeks. We'll soon find out.

 

[Puppies]

I’m done. 147.60 after taking a 0 at TE and 1 point at D.

Good luck to those who are still alive!

I was rooting for you, as well as the others who post here. Unfortunately it looks like several of you are joining me on the sidelines after this week.
The good news is it looks like several who thought they were done this week, will actually survive and move on to week 13.

I didn't do very well on Team Defense this year, going with two $3 choices and only averaging 5.82 points per week on Defense.
But knowing that TE seems to have the highest return on investment, I averaged 16.5 points per week from the TE, plus added 10 flex scores from TE through 11 weeks. And I only spent $39 total on 4 TE's with Engram, Kincaid, Hurst, and Musgrave. I was happy with my TE choices except for Hayden Hurst, who disappointed me.

I think WR was my worst position as far as wasted money or dead money. I missed on Parris Campbell, Van Jeffiersonand, Jahan Dotson, and pretty much on Mike Wilson.

 

[Adam Harstad]

120 very happy Lutz owners
-QG

I've only had two weeks where I finished within 30 points of the cut lion and Lutz saved my hindquarters in both of them. 6.6 away in Week 7 (Lutz had 15.9, my next-best kicker had 7) and 12.2 away in Week 11 (Lutz had 18.1, my next-best kicker had 3).

Yeah I think that is a lesson of this year.

If a team spends capital to get a veteran kicker (usually with a prior coach connection) that is about as solid a link as you can get - it is why I grabbed Hopkins.

I don't think the draft capital spent on rookie kickers is as clear cut though - they still seem to be able to lose their jobs.

-QG

Agreed. Was surprised Lutz wasn’t more heavily rostered. Not only because of the incredible job security at that price point, but on the potential for Denver’s offense to rebound going from Hackett to Payton.

There were more entries this year with Badgley than Lutz. (Lol.)

 

[Adam Harstad]

Also interesting given all the discussion this offseason about the tighter pricing leading to smaller rosters being more optimal than usual, here's survival rates for all teams with at least $250 spent. (Doesn't include Week 12 yet.)

18 players -- 142/4040 (3.5%)
19 -- 82/1333 (6.2%)
20 -- 75/1029 (7.3%)
21 -- 61/759 (8.0%)
22 -- 56/604 (9.3%)
23 -- 57/442 (12.9%)
24 -- 54/330 (16.6%)
25 -- 45/228 (19.8%)
26 -- 31/164 (18.9%)
27 -- 16/86 (18.6%)
28 -- 17/73 (23.3%)
29 -- 17/63 (27.0%!)
30 -- 13/85 (15.3%)

Some small sample size weirdness at the tails there, but looking at 24+ player rosters, you're at 193/1029 surviving, an 18.8% survival rate. I don't know if *BIGGER* is better (things look fairly flat past 24/25), but it does look like *BIG* is better. Specifically, it looks every additional player you could add up to the 24-25 range was worth the cost, though the tradeoffs are much more even beyond that.

With some caveats. Might be a season-specific thing (bigger rosters probably pushed more to guys like Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, who have been especially valuable this year, while smaller rosters were probably over-indexed on e.g. Justin Jefferson), might be lurking variables (higher roster counts are more likely to include 3PK rosters, lower roster counts are more likely to include 2PKs, and 3PKs is a stronger build than 2PKs), and also especially on the more popular numbers you tend to a much higher percentage of casual entries (I think the 24-man rosters were likely much sharper on average than the 18-man rosters). Also, there's the distinction of larger rosters being better optimized for making the finals but less optimized for winning once there.

I've tracked it for several years and I have observed that the survival rates are always distributed pretty much the way they are this year. Last year the sweet spot was 27 and 28 player teams, with final survival rates of 4.06% and 4.07%. Next best after that was 24 at 3.50%, 25 at 3.37% and 30 at 3.10%, and 23 at 3.09%.

We still have this week plus 2 more weeks to go, so I expect the best survival rate to once again be around 4% after 14 weeks. We'll soon find out.

Yeah, just interesting that the distribution remained relatively unchanged despite all the talk about how sharp the prices were and how hard it was to go big without all the obvious $3 options lying around. Reading the first ~10 pages again there was a lot of speculation that 20 or 21 might be optimal. (And who knows, it still might be.)

FWIW, I’m really surprised by the massive advance rates at 29 and 30. I’m normally a max or near-max roster size guy (because I’d rather optimize for deep runs than optimize for winning the finals, because I’m in it for the fun and deep runs are a better return on investment there). But I struggled even to get up to 26 this year. I tried some 28/29/30 man rosters and they all looked really grim.

 

[scottybo]

Just as I lose Olave next week, Goedert may be back.

 

[Stray Doug]

The missed Santos FG may haunt me

 

[dbc925]

6-3 halfway through the third. I feel like we’re not going to see much of a line move.

 

[scottybo]

The missed Santos FG may haunt me

There you go. He made up for it.

Currently at 12.4.

He, Fields and Moore are the only line movers so far tonight.

 

[BassNBrew]

So... cutline after Sunday night game is 148.25

I'm toast.

I'm sitting at 151 with Herbert (-10.2) and Santos (-6.6). It's been a good run.

May hold. You hold two of the top 3 line movers. I'd give you a slightly better than 50% chance of advancing.

Correct again.

 

[jdkapow]

I get a final cutline of 153.75.

 

[(HULK)]

This is the second farthest I've made it in however many years I've been doing it (over a decade by a good margin). One time I finished high enough for a free subscription but didn't hit the money. That team stayed unusually healthy throughout the run. Usually I die around week 9 or 10.

This year I lost my most expensive RB very early, then my most expensive QB soon after, then my most expensive TE a couple weeks later. Every week I go in expecting elimination and every week another bunch of randos pull magic out of their rears and I keep surviving. I don't know that it will keep lasting, in fact I expect it won't, but I sure am enjoying the thrill lasting as long as it has.

 

[smcindoe]

I get a final cutline of 153.75.

Yikes. I’ll be down to decimal places. How much margin for error do you figure?

 

[jdkapow]

I get a final cutline of 153.75.

Yikes. I’ll be down to decimal places. How much margin for error do you figure?

I don't think I've ever been off by more than 0.1 or so. Comes down to whether I missed something on one of the defenses or missed that a guy fumbled and didn't add that point back in.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Dead at 128.30 :(

Good luck to the live roosters!!!

-QG

 

[a_troll00]

It's a Minnesota Miracle! Roschon Johnson and Cairo Santos managed to get me to 158. It got me one more week.

Now, week 13 will require another miracle, between injuries and byes. Though, who knows?

 

[Puppies]

Average Score per week through 12 Weeks:

This Wk 12​	Last wk 11​	FootballGuy:	Size	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week9	Week 10	Week 11​	Week 12	Total	Average
1​	1​	ZWK	26	165.25	182.25	191.50	216.30	223.55	168.00	218.30	180.45	160.85	162.25	178.10	193.40	2240.20	186.68
2​	2​	The Stray Doug	19	186.90	153.25	178.25	210.55	192.00	138.75	173.15	208.50	134.60	177.05	173.00	156.95	2082.95	173.58
3​	3​	Scottybo	20	125.90	182.45	216.75	133.85	209.55	189.20	194.55	167.65	182.55	156.00	150.00	166.10	2074.55	172.88
4​	4​	jdkapow	24	164.05	169.85	199.75	147.40	221.30	170.45	183.90	199.15	136.65	161.70	150.40	167.20	2071.80	172.65
5​	6​	TrishaRitasBoys	21	159.05	183.15	206.35	162.15	170.85	192.80	148.55	195.95	151.15	161.30	142.20	184.10	2057.60	171.47
6​	5​	BrncosFan07	28	126.15	207.24	207.85	169.70	208.90	173.35	166.70	168.90	156.70	145.65	146.20	168.50	2045.84	170.49
7​	8​	dbc925	25	150.95	177.15	170.95	150.20	202.00	154.75	174.20	207.35	149.05	156.20	166.50	166.60	2025.90	168.83
8​	9​	fear the bald	20	153.80	169.70	131.80	162.50	201.80	143.55	154.95	172.75	176.35	180.80	191.05	161.70	2000.75	166.73

Congratulations and good luck to the teams above advancing to week 13. It's going to be dicey with a 40% cut the final 2 weeks of the qualifying round.

Failed to make the cut in week 12: @cstruk , @TheWinz , @Bill Dauterive , @QuizGuy66

 

[jdkapow]

Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Living Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) and Chupacabra (#103765) are still one and two here. They scored 169.5 and 169.4 this week, so the gap between them didn’t budge. One Giant Loss is the only team averaging over 190, at 191.0, although Chupacabra does round up to 190.0. Then there’s a gap to a couple of teams between 186 and 187.

Strongest Dead Team: Four of the ten strongest teams are now dead, up one from last week. Lavalley01 (#103589) moved up from 6th to 4th with a second straight week over 190. Entry #108378 had a strong rebound from being eliminated in week 11, scoring 189.75 this week and nudging up from 8th to 7th, which I guess is cold comfort. See the Icarus award for the team currently sitting in 9th. More about them in the Icarus award. Meanwhile, Cake or Death (#100791) came roaring into 10th place with a very strong 196.9 this week.

Keep Your Day Job Award: After scoring over 100 points each of the first five weeks, Entry #102876, the lowest-averaging “serious” entry, has been working hard at getting their average down below 90. Their 70.1 this week brought them down from 93.1 to 91.2. Maybe next week! There are four teams with lower averages, but they all have 10+ QBs and not enough flex players to fill a full roster. There are a bunch of other teams like that: it’s kind of impressive in a wayt that Entry #102876 can be as bad as 5th.

Safest Team: One Giant Loss and Chupacabra are still the safest teams on average, although their average clearances both dropped under 60 this week (neither one cleared by even 20 in week 12).

We have a new safest team by my usual measure (greatest minimum clearance). Entry #103706 has cleared by at least 28.75 every week, which is over 3 points greater than anyone else can claim.

Just Skating By Award: The ice cracked this week. Both of our previous top skaters fell through this week, getting eliminated. The lowest average clearance is now owned by KikoNation (#104569), at 16.5. Last week, the leader was under 13, so that’s a big change.

Meanwhile, GothamEvilEmpire (#105988) has always cleared the line, but never by more than 34.6. Lots of nailbiting every week, I imagine.

Steady Eddie Award: We’ve left the realm of single digits here, as the lowest standard deviation for a living team rose from 7.8 to 10.2. The most boring team in the contest is now alonegunman (#105693), who has always scored between 146 and 178.

Crazy Eddie Award: As usual, there’s a new leader here, since teams with high standard deviations tend to get eliminated. The highest standard deviation for a living team has dropped below 40: Entry #107504 leads the pack at 38.6, almost 5 points higher than anyone else. They’ve scored under 130 three times (but chose good weeks for it) and over 230 twice (every week is a good week for that).

Icarus Award: BALLBREAKERS (#108812) had theirs broken this week, missing the cutline by less than 4 points in week 11. They’re still the 10th strongest team in the contest overall, but that and a buck will get them…well, no it probably won’t even get them a cup of coffee.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Last week, there were 29 teams that were eliminated in week 1 but cleared the cutline every week after. This week, there are 13. Of these teams, Entry #109985 has scored the most points since their ignominious beginning, averaging 173.1 from weeks 2 through 12. They sit in 111th place overall in the contest, for what it’s worth.

 

[jdkapow]

Notable Teams:

QBs: We lost one of the last two 6-QB teams this week. Entry #100302 fell by the wayside, leaving Entry #108571 as the last of the original 25 still standing.

RBs: No change: the last remaining 10-RB team, Entry #104404, also survived another week. They’ve been the last one since week 9, which is pretty impressive.

WRs: No change: Entry #100272 remains the last survivor of the original thirteen 12-WR teams. It’s been that way since week 10.

TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week. It’s been that way since week 6!

PKs: Of the 85 teams that rostered 5 or more kickers, only Entry #102778 remains as of this week.

DEFs: We lost one of the final two 6-DEF teams, leaving only Entry #102778 standing.

Dollars: We finally lost Entry #104361, who inexplicably spent only $241 to assemble their 23-man roster. There two remaining teams (out of 45 originally) who left enough money and roster spots on the table that they could easily have added someone else with no downside.

 

[bamabuddha]

Thank you MFing DJ Moore! Live to see another week!

 

[bamabuddha]

Average Score per week through 12 Weeks:

This Wk 12​	Last wk 11​	FootballGuy:	Size	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week9	Week 10	Week 11​	Week 12	Total	Average
1​	1​	ZWK	26	165.25	182.25	191.50	216.30	223.55	168.00	218.30	180.45	160.85	162.25	178.10	193.40	2240.20	186.68
2​	2​	The Stray Doug	19	186.90	153.25	178.25	210.55	192.00	138.75	173.15	208.50	134.60	177.05	173.00	156.95	2082.95	173.58
3​	3​	Scottybo	20	125.90	182.45	216.75	133.85	209.55	189.20	194.55	167.65	182.55	156.00	150.00	166.10	2074.55	172.88
4​	4​	jdkapow	24	164.05	169.85	199.75	147.40	221.30	170.45	183.90	199.15	136.65	161.70	150.40	167.20	2071.80	172.65
5​	6​	TrishaRitasBoys	21	159.05	183.15	206.35	162.15	170.85	192.80	148.55	195.95	151.15	161.30	142.20	184.10	2057.60	171.47
6​	5​	BrncosFan07	28	126.15	207.24	207.85	169.70	208.90	173.35	166.70	168.90	156.70	145.65	146.20	168.50	2045.84	170.49
7​	8​	dbc925	25	150.95	177.15	170.95	150.20	202.00	154.75	174.20	207.35	149.05	156.20	166.50	166.60	2025.90	168.83
8​	9​	fear the bald	20	153.80	169.70	131.80	162.50	201.80	143.55	154.95	172.75	176.35	180.80	191.05	161.70	2000.75	166.73

Congratulations and good luck to the teams above advancing to week 13. It's going to be dicey with a 40% cut the final 2 weeks of the qualifying round.

Failed to make the cut in week 12: @cstruk , @TheWinz , @Bill Dauterive , @QuizGuy66

Sorry to see the others go….i thought i was dead and did not think DJ could deliver….even though i am lowest average left on the list, it was my first week to sweat the Turk on a Monday night game….

i got the $100 from da man (Joe, who is awesome!) last year…and hoping to do it again this year, i.e. get me through next week!!! I have been following my next to last entry, before i finally locked it in, and it has been doing better because I had more players…and thus more reaches that actually ended up hitting, mainly Dell and Nuca… oh well, this entry still did ok but definitely not a top 100 finisher…

wished I was ZWK!!!!! 186 point average is fire!!!

 

[bamabuddha]

Notable Teams:

QBs: We lost one of the last two 6-QB teams this week. Entry #100302 fell by the wayside, leaving Entry #108571 as the last of the original 25 still standing.

RBs: No change: the last remaining 10-RB team, Entry #104404, also survived another week. They’ve been the last one since week 9, which is pretty impressive.

WRs: No change: Entry #100272 remains the last survivor of the original thirteen 12-WR teams. It’s been that way since week 10.

TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week. It’s been that way since week 6!

PKs: Of the 85 teams that rostered 5 or more kickers, only Entry #102778 remains as of this week.

DEFs: We lost one of the final two 6-DEF teams, leaving only Entry #102778 standing.

Dollars: We finally lost Entry #104361, who inexplicably spent only $241 to assemble their 23-man roster. There two remaining teams (out of 45 originally) who left enough money and roster spots on the table that they could easily have added someone else with no downside.

Dollars teams - Leaving money on the table…that is crazy!

 

[jdkapow]

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: Six more players are no longer contributing to living teams, bringing the total number of zombie players to 25. This week’s unlucky 6 are Will Levis, Michael Carter, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jauan Jennings, Tucker Kraft, and Nyheim Hines. Smith-Schuster and Hines are notable in that they are the first two eliminated players to have been originally rostered by over 100 teams. In case you’re wondering about 1000-team players, there are 8 living teams with Justin Jefferson. None of the others are under 25.

The Biggest Mistake: Jefferson and Smith-Schuster certainly belong here. Among players who haven’t been completely eliminated, Deshaun Watson has the lowest survival rate, with one of his original 241 teams remaining. Seems appropriate that his contest contract would be as bad as his real-life one.

The Survivor: With his monster week, Kyren Williams vaults back to the top of this list: his 15.2% survival rate leads everyone. Last week’s leader, Puka Nacua, had a poor showing and drops to third at 11.8%, with Tank Dell edging ahead of him into second with 12.5%. still well behind Williams. Ten players overall still sport 10% or greater survival rates, double the overall rate.

The Bargain: You could have had Nacua or Dell for $3, or sprung for Williams for an extra dollar. It’s been quite a year for bargains. You could have picked the guy with the 4th highest survival rate, Sam Howell, for just $8, certainly a QB bargain. Or you could have signed the guy in 5th place for 3 dollars…

The Parasite: How does Michael Wilson have the 5th-highest survival rate in the contest? He’s put up zeros in three of the last four weeks and hasn’t cracked double digits since week 4. Some guys have all the luck.

 

[TheWinz]

Week 12 started with 12 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @QuizGuy66 @cstruk @Kruegs

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @ZWK @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @firstseason1988 @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @ZWK with 193.40 points. Congrats on 45th place this week!
- Our lowest survivor was @a_troll00 with 158.00 points. The Roschon/Santos combo pushed him just over the line.
- The overall contest survival rate is 5.02%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 23.08%.

Bring on week 13!

 

[Dacomish]

No ties this week affected the UNOFFICIAL cut after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8971
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8077
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7271
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5817
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4657
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3726
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2981
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2087
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1462
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1024
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 717
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.

 

[Gally]

Missed the cut by 0.85 pts. Ugh Best I have ever done though.

 

[brewer]

It's been a fun ride but I suspect my luck runs out this week as I am probably taking a 0 at TE(Kincaid on a bye, Ertz injured, Foster Moreau not involved much). Still pretty pleased to make it this far with so many 0s from Nick Chubb as my second highest salary.

 

[Balco]

What was your dumbest roster selection? Not the player who just didn’t pan out like a Jahan Dotson or Tony Pollard. But a player there was no justifiable reason to select?

Mine is a cheap one but absolutely zero idea what I was thinking:

Mack Hollins $4 Falcons: 4th or 5th receiving option on a run first offense.

 

[Skipdog77]

What was your dumbest roster selection? Not the player who just didn’t pan out like a Jahan Dotson or Tony Pollard. But a player there was no justifiable reason to select?

Mine is a cheap one but absolutely zero idea what I was thinking:

Mack Hollins $4 Falcons: 4th or 5th receiving option on a run first offense.

Isaiah Hodgins, WR NYG.

Taking any NYG WR was incredibly dumb, but taking him was just...ugh. Took him over Nacua, Dell, just...ugh.

 

[Gally]

Isaiah Hodgins, WR NYG.

Taking any NYG WR was incredibly dumb, but taking him was just...ugh. Took him over Nacua, Dell, just...ugh.

Based on the way he finished last year and how Jones was looking this had reasoning behind picking him. Looking in hindsight is bad but at the time Hodgins wasn't a bad process.

 

[brewer]

What was your dumbest roster selection? Not the player who just didn’t pan out like a Jahan Dotson or Tony Pollard. But a player there was no justifiable reason to select?

Kenny Pickett

I bought into the preseason hype, I clearly should have known better.

 

[IHEARTFF]

C

What was your dumbest roster selection? Not the player who just didn’t pan out like a Jahan Dotson or Tony Pollard. But a player there was no justifiable reason to select?

Mine is a cheap one but absolutely zero idea what I was thinking:

Mack Hollins $4 Falcons: 4th or 5th receiving option on a run first offense.

Cedric Tillman $3
Could have thrown a dart at literally any other $3 player and been better off