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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Good news: survived by 4 points.
Bad news: down to 1 QB whose bye is week 9. Tick tick tick
Bad news: down to 1 QB whose bye is week 9. Tick tick tick
joey
Footballguy
21 Player Roster survivors, unite!
Puppies
Footballguy
1 out of every 8 teams remaining has Justin Jefferson.
While that is bad news for those teams, it creates a boost in survival probability for the rest of us who do not.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
My worst year. Eliminated. Good Luck all. Got too cute at RB. Didn’t get any injury luck on the handcuffs.
Galileo
Footballguy
One of these things is not like the othersWeek 5 Scores / Season Totals / and Season Averages
Team Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week5 Total Average 1 2 ZWK 26 165.25 182.25 191.50 216.30 223.55 978.85 195.77 2 1 rzrback77 26 191.10 186.95 207.30 193.05 152.25 930.65 186.13 3 3 The Stray Doug 19 186.90 153.25 178.25 210.55 192.00 920.95 184.19 4 5 BrncosFan07 28 126.15 207.24 207.85 169.70 208.90 919.84 183.97 5 4 cStruck 21 152.40 189.25 177.95 206.85 183.70 910.15 182.03 6 6 PIK95 21 170.90 197.70 168.40 173.20 199.25 909.45 181.89 7 9 QuizGuy66 25 140.50 168.10 192.35 194.55 195.15 890.65 178.13 8 8 Twin Turbo 23 186.85 174.85 155.90 180.80 188.75 887.15 177.43 9 14 Scottybo 20 125.90 182.45 216.75 133.85 209.55 868.50 173.70 10 12 Dacomish 24 122.65 163.55 198.00 178.20 197.60 860.00 172.00 11 10 Deamon 21 132.80 191.60 190.85 176.25 155.65 847.15 169.43 12 13 Army Eye 22 143.60 164.85 185.35 167.80 185.20 846.80 169.36 13 15 Senior VDB Student 22 140.75 193.05 181.25 141.10 189.00 845.15 169.03 14 18 jdoggydogg 21 171.10 160.85 147.25 169.95 188.35 837.50 167.50 15 23 Bloom (staff) 26 140.85 152.75 143.25 182.70 208.70 828.25 165.65 16 24 fear the bald 20 153.80 169.70 131.80 162.50 201.80 819.60 163.92 17 17 Bill Dauterive 25 183.05 171.85 141.70 153.90 165.60 816.10 163.22 19 11 Puppies 24 154.90 169.55 192.30 155.05 138.75 810.55 162.11 20 20 Woolac 30 173.40 157.05 165.20 142.95 153.25 791.85 158.37 21 16 Angry Beavers 22 171.25 176.05 132.65 171.40 140.20 791.55 158.31 22 26 The Winz 23 152.00 152.35 167.15 139.35 171.20 782.05 156.41 23 22 aPalmer 22 146.60 144.45 152.80 178.55 151.65 774.05 154.81 24 21 Stubby 22 148.20 160.25 155.85 161.15 142.40 767.85 153.57 25 30 Menobrown 24 138.15 149.35 129.25 158.85 190.15 765.75 153.15 27 27 Galileo 19 148.55 142.15 173.95 142.65 148.60 755.90 151.18 28 28 Irelad 21 138.80 147.15 156.55 160.20 146.40 749.10 149.82 29 31 Monty Burns 22 142.35 150.35 127.80 149.25 158.25 728.00 145.60 Eliminated in Week 5: 18 7 Sooted72 30 179.80 180.75 128.60 209.60 115.10 813.85 162.77 26 19 Mister CIA Fan 20 141.70 157.45 149.70 194.50 122.30 765.65 153.13 30 29 dzambo 22 146.35 150.95 155.25 147.50 113.45 713.50 142.70 31 32 Gottabesweet 22 124.00 155.85 140.35 143.35 125.35 688.90 137.78
One of these things just doesn't belong
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
by the time I finish this song
Puppies
Footballguy
Some relief for Van Jefferson owners 
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
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jdkapow
Footballguy
You'd think this would mean the 18-man rosters are in bad shape. But almost half the contestants build an 18-man roster. I'd never looked at that before, so I didn't appreciate just how skewed the teams are toward smaller rosters.
Even with the low survival rate, there are more 18-man teams left than there are 21-to-30-man teams combined. When the contest started, 44% of all teams rostered 18 players, and the median roster size was 19. Today, 37% of all living teams have 18-man rosters, and the median roster size is...19. One more week with similar survival trends might push the median up to 20, though.
I guess the argument is that 18-man rosters will be better in the endgame, if you're lucky enough to make it that far? Or do people just find it too hard to resist those shiny expensive players?
Puppies
Footballguy
Lots of ways to look at it. With the frequency of injuries, survival rates will probably always be higher with larger roster teams. But a smaller roster that is fortunate enough to avoid injuries might have a higher ceiling if it survives to the playoffs.
Survival rates for individual players are misleading because they truly reflect the quality of that player’s entire roster, rather than that individual player.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I think the preponderance of 18-man roosters is probably a function of how much time most people put into it. They get the big guns they want and back fill with guys they know and end up at 18. I would be curious if there was any metrics on number of rooster versions submitted by rooster size. I would guess that a lot of 18s are one or two submits and done.
If there was an even distribution of entries of all sizes the 18s would get swamped but their sheer volume keeps 'em around in great numbers longer.
-QG
If there was an even distribution of entries of all sizes the 18s would get swamped but their sheer volume keeps 'em around in great numbers longer.
-QG
Puppies
Footballguy
Here’s another way to look at it. Knowing that virtually half of the rosters have only 18 players, should you also limit yourself to 18 and expect to come up with a better player combination on your roster than 5,000 other teams that also have 18 players?
Or does it make more sense to go with a larger roster and seek out some lower-cost value players to supplement a core of one stud at each position? You can go that route knowing that survival stats are in your favor against all the 18-player rosters, and if you pick some winners with your supplemental players, you have a better chance to not only survive, but also go deep and make the playoffs. If you get that far, anything can happen.
Everyone has their own opinion, but for me, it’s the latter.
I will admit I never really considered Puka or Tutu, because, like @Puppies , I thought Van Jefferson was going to have a great year.
I did consider rostering all 5 NYG WR's for $24 (Hodgins for $6, Robinson & Slayton for $5 each, and Campbell & Hyatt for $4 each). Basically, you have one $24 WR with a very nice floor, and possibly a few weeks where you get to use multiple scores from them. How would that have worked out so far? Like total dog crap! Even if you take the best weekly score, you still only end up with 43.5 points, which equates to WR50!
I did consider rostering all 5 NYG WR's for $24 (Hodgins for $6, Robinson & Slayton for $5 each, and Campbell & Hyatt for $4 each). Basically, you have one $24 WR with a very nice floor, and possibly a few weeks where you get to use multiple scores from them. How would that have worked out so far? Like total dog crap! Even if you take the best weekly score, you still only end up with 43.5 points, which equates to WR50!
LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
Puppies
Footballguy
Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
All kidding aside, he was getting phased out from the start of the season, and completely phased out when Kupp returned.
Game 1 - 3rd in targets (5), behind Nacua & Atwell
Game 2 - 5th in targets (4), behind Nacua, Williams, Atwell, & Higbee
Game 3 - 5th in targets (3), behind Atwell, Nacua, Williams, & Higbee
Game 4 - 4th in targets (3 - tied with Williams), behind Higbee, Nacua, & Atwell
Game 5 - 7th in targets (0 - tied with me), behind Kupp, Nacua, Atwell, Higbee, Williams, & Skowronek
Even if he gets 1 target a game from Desmond Ridder, it's a massive boost to his stock. At least that's what us Jefferson owners have to believe.
Game 1 - 3rd in targets (5), behind Nacua & Atwell
Game 2 - 5th in targets (4), behind Nacua, Williams, Atwell, & Higbee
Game 3 - 5th in targets (3), behind Atwell, Nacua, Williams, & Higbee
Game 4 - 4th in targets (3 - tied with Williams), behind Higbee, Nacua, & Atwell
Game 5 - 7th in targets (0 - tied with me), behind Kupp, Nacua, Atwell, Higbee, Williams, & Skowronek
Even if he gets 1 target a game from Desmond Ridder, it's a massive boost to his stock. At least that's what us Jefferson owners have to believe.
I hope it works out for you. I just think Atlanta is the worst possible destiantion.Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
Puppies
Footballguy
I hope it works out for you. I just think Atlanta is the worst possible destiantion.Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
Thanks!
Maybe the 2nd worst?
He was healthy and played 2 snaps in week 5 when Kupp returned. I'd rather have the worst High School QB throwing to him than the best NFL QB not throwing to him.I hope it works out for you. I just think Atlanta is the worst possible destiantion.Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
Galileo
Footballguy
And what are your thoughts about the worst high school QB not throwing to him?He was healthy and played 2 snaps in week 5 when Kupp returned. I'd rather have the worst High School QB throwing to him than the best NFL QB not throwing to him.I hope it works out for you. I just think Atlanta is the worst possible destiantion.Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
just a matter of time as I’m down to Kamara and pollard at rb
Haha, I don't think it matters if no one is throwing to him, but at least he isn't WR9 on his own team anymore. Even 1 target over the next 12 games is an improvement at this point, and I am pretty sure he will get that in ATL.And what are your thoughts about the worst high school QB not throwing to him?He was healthy and played 2 snaps in week 5 when Kupp returned. I'd rather have the worst High School QB throwing to him than the best NFL QB not throwing to him.I hope it works out for you. I just think Atlanta is the worst possible destiantion.Maybe, and maybe not.LOL....isn't 3.84 points what Drake London and Kyle Pitts average.Some relief for Van Jefferson owners
It looks like WR Van Jefferson is being traded to the Atlanta Falcons for an exchange of draft picks.
He has been a disappointment so far this year for his $8 cap cost, so from where I'm sitting, this is good news.
He has only averaged 3.84 points per week, which would be brutal even for a $3 player, let alone his $8 cap cost.
When he was listed as the #2 WR on pre-season depth charts, and we were all searching for value players while going though dozens of roster iterations....I rostered him due to the uncertainty, and the mysterious nature of Cooper Kupp's situation. I was correct to be suspicious of what was really going on with Kupp, and I thought if Kupp missed time, Jefferson would get a decent target share. When Kupp went on IR, I thought I had found a lottery ticket. BIG mistake
The realization that I could have rostered both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell instead, and had $2 left over, makes me sick.
Since it can't get much worse, this is probably a good development.
This is like a trade from purgatory to hell.
With Kupp back, plus Nacua and Atwel getting all the looks, there are too many mouths to feed in LA. And Jefferson put up a donut there this week. That was probably a fairly indicative representation of his target share going forward, had he stayed in LA.
Perhaps he can get a larger target share in Atlanta with the underachievers you already mentioned. We probably won’t know anything in week 6, but I feel better about his chances going forward in Atlanta, than having him ride the bench in LA. The bad thing for me is I’ll likely get eliminated before we find out if this was a good move or not.
jdkapow
Footballguy
I have a new favorite team to root for in week 6:
GaspaRasmussen (#109996) has at least $143 (and probably $146) locked up in players who won't be on the field this week. The list is Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, J.K. Dobbins, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Warren, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Michael Badgley, the Packers D and probably Tank Dell. No other living team is within $10 of that much dead money (at least at the moment, some players will of course be declared out between now and their games).
Despite that, they have enough active players in the right positions that they can fill a full scoring slate. I mean, it's not great: after David Montgomery, Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, and David Njoku, they're looking at one of Deuce Vaughn or Tank Bigsby for RB2, and the other one of those guys in the mix with Skyy Moore, Isaiah LIkely and Foster Moreau for the flex spots.
Go GaspaRasmussen!
GaspaRasmussen (#109996) has at least $143 (and probably $146) locked up in players who won't be on the field this week. The list is Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, J.K. Dobbins, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Warren, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Michael Badgley, the Packers D and probably Tank Dell. No other living team is within $10 of that much dead money (at least at the moment, some players will of course be declared out between now and their games).
Despite that, they have enough active players in the right positions that they can fill a full scoring slate. I mean, it's not great: after David Montgomery, Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, and David Njoku, they're looking at one of Deuce Vaughn or Tank Bigsby for RB2, and the other one of those guys in the mix with Skyy Moore, Isaiah LIkely and Foster Moreau for the flex spots.
Go GaspaRasmussen!
Puppies
Footballguy
Looking ahead to the Thursday night game.... Here are the ownership numbers:
Mahomes -390
Pacheco - 431
McKinnon - 155
Edwards-Helaire - 90
MVS- 221
S.Moore - 605
K.Toney - 266
R.Rice - 97
Kelce - 289
Butker - 370
CHIEFS - 129
R.Wilson - 151
J Williams - 238
Perine - 116
Jeudy - 27
Sutton - 613
Mims - 627
Lutz - 498
BRONCOS - 325
Mahomes -390
Pacheco - 431
McKinnon - 155
Edwards-Helaire - 90
MVS- 221
S.Moore - 605
K.Toney - 266
R.Rice - 97
Kelce - 289
Butker - 370
CHIEFS - 129
R.Wilson - 151
J Williams - 238
Perine - 116
Jeudy - 27
Sutton - 613
Mims - 627
Lutz - 498
BRONCOS - 325
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Very disappointed to report that my week 1 elimination appears to have been upheld, and I am still knocked out.
Galileo
Footballguy
What if you try Army Eyes' page...link in first post
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Taps out with a 122. 2023 is shaping up to be a disappointing season for FF.
a_troll00
Footballguy
This season, gotta say the higher priced players have been far more busts than booms. Then, compliment that with high performing cheap players and this season has been... interesting.
However, the Lawrence-Ridley and Burrow-Chase express lines are starting to roll. So, watch out!
However, the Lawrence-Ridley and Burrow-Chase express lines are starting to roll. So, watch out!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Not insane... just a calculated risk. I did exactly what Balco suggested, and so far so good (bye week is behind me with Herbert, and I cleared the cut line easily this week). Only difference from his suggestion is that I also had a second stud on bye (Ekeler). Get the pain over with early on (while the cut % is still low, and there's still a higher proportion of "weak teams who've been lucky so far"). My theory is that as the season progresses of the weak-but-lucky-so-far teams get more and more weeded out and the caliber of remaining teams increase (along with the cut %). Week 5 is early enough that there's still some chaff left in the contest.
And yes, QBs have bad weeks, but the top QBs are usually pretty consistently high-floor. You gave the example with Love... but I'm sure there are counter-examples with similar lower-ranked/priced QB2s who wind up as basically dead money other than the bye weeks. I can share my own experience last year I had Davis Mills ($7) as QB2 behind Josh Allen. I tracked my entry for 13 weeks (was eliminated week 8) and Mills ONLY counted for me in week 7 when Allen was on bye, and I didn't need him (still would have cleared the line by 25 with a QB goose egg that week). Allen only had one week sub-20 (week 11 with 16.55) and Mills put up 14.45 that week. Basically, the $7 on my QB2 was dead money last year. This year with the week 5 QB goose egg I still cleared the line by 58.5. So it's not unreasonable to avoid that dead money if you've got a stud QB.
You have to also consider the opportunity cost of the points you are giving up at other positions by tying up money in your QB2 safety net. And ultimately it depends on your overall philosophy/strategy/goal in the contest. Personally I'd rather have a hypothetical 10% chance of making the finals (with a 3% chance of winning if I do) than a 20% chance of making the finals (with a 1% chance of winning if I do). Percentages here obviously just for illustrative purposes of the perceived tradeoffs.
OK, of course I didn't really mean insane, and I understand it's a risk. And yes, it is more fun to have a smaller roster full of studs, like you did this year. I was more replying to @Balco post because he said he could definitely see Love losing his job, which I don't see happening. I would've jumped on board if he said Mac Jones!
I just wanted to add a few more for tonight
QB Stidham - 11
WR Ross - 227
WR James - 47 (IR)
TE Gray - 280
TE Dulcich - 84
Game on!
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Where did you spend the $$$ that you saved on QB2? I think this is a sound strategy but it all hinges on what additional value was gained across the other positions.
Cutting down from 4657 to 3726 this week. Since only 2924 teams scored any points, the cutline remains at zero. Here are the scores, based on ownership:
627 - Mims - 0.00
613 - Sutton - 14.60
605 - Moore - 4.20
498 - Lutz - 0.00
431 - Pacheco - 12.80
390 - Mahomes - 23.40
370 - Butker - 18.70
325 - DEN D - 4.00
289 - Kelce - 25.90
280 - Gray - 4.50
266 - Toney - 9.40
238 - Williams - 5.20
227 - Ross - 0.00
221 - Valdes-Scantling - 0.00
155 - McKinnon - 3.50
151 - Wilson - 11.85
129 - KC D - 10.00
116 - Perine - 2.60
97 - Rice - 11.20
90 - Edwards-Helaire - 2.10
84 - Dulcich - 1.80
47 - James - 0.00
27 - Jeudy - 4.40
11 - Stidham - 0.00
627 - Mims - 0.00
613 - Sutton - 14.60
605 - Moore - 4.20
498 - Lutz - 0.00
431 - Pacheco - 12.80
390 - Mahomes - 23.40
370 - Butker - 18.70
325 - DEN D - 4.00
289 - Kelce - 25.90
280 - Gray - 4.50
266 - Toney - 9.40
238 - Williams - 5.20
227 - Ross - 0.00
221 - Valdes-Scantling - 0.00
155 - McKinnon - 3.50
151 - Wilson - 11.85
129 - KC D - 10.00
116 - Perine - 2.60
97 - Rice - 11.20
90 - Edwards-Helaire - 2.10
84 - Dulcich - 1.80
47 - James - 0.00
27 - Jeudy - 4.40
11 - Stidham - 0.00
Looks pretty grim. I'd be sweating if I was you.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
I spent it on WR darts... my last two players added so that I'd have enough bye week depth were I Hodgins and P Nacua... J Reed and M Wilson were also in/out of variations. Alternately might have stuck with Olave instead of Chase as my #1 WR. Or dropped Dotson, though I was pretty high on him (still time...).
But either way, I was pretty locked in on my top 3 choices at both RB and TE (I also cut J Warren for $11 late in the process that also went to WR... I think that was more the Olave->Chase upgrade), so WR was where I was still futzing around up to the deadline and where I'd say that QB2 $ went. I also went with only 2 Ds instead of my preferred 3 to contribute $3 to the pool available at WR... liking $3 Nacua over having a 3rd D so far this year.
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Sounds like you crushed it. $3 on Puka was worth it all. For me, I didn't land on Puka but did spend the extra $3 on Josh Reynolds. For QB, I moved to Burrow and Baker. $5 for another QB was as high as I wanted to go
I spent it on WR darts... my last two players added so that I'd have enough bye week depth were I Hodgins and P Nacua... J Reed and M Wilson were also in/out of variations. Alternately might have stuck with Olave instead of Chase as my #1 WR. Or dropped Dotson, though I was pretty high on him (still time...).
But either way, I was pretty locked in on my top 3 choices at both RB and TE (I also cut J Warren for $11 late in the process that also went to WR... I think that was more the Olave->Chase upgrade), so WR was where I was still futzing around up to the deadline and where I'd say that QB2 $ went. I also went with only 2 Ds instead of my preferred 3 to contribute $3 to the pool available at WR... liking $3 Nacua over having a 3rd D so far this year.
Crushed it is an understatement! Look at this...Sounds like you crushed it.
I spent it on WR darts... my last two players added so that I'd have enough bye week depth were I Hodgins and P Nacua... J Reed and M Wilson were also in/out of variations. Alternately might have stuck with Olave instead of Chase as my #1 WR. Or dropped Dotson, though I was pretty high on him (still time...).
But either way, I was pretty locked in on my top 3 choices at both RB and TE (I also cut J Warren for $11 late in the process that also went to WR... I think that was more the Olave->Chase upgrade), so WR was where I was still futzing around up to the deadline and where I'd say that QB2 $ went. I also went with only 2 Ds instead of my preferred 3 to contribute $3 to the pool available at WR... liking $3 Nacua over having a 3rd D so far this year.
QB - Justin Herbert
RB - Christian McCaffrey
RB - Austin Ekeler
WR - Tyreek Hill
WR - JaMarr Chase
FL - Alvin Kamara
FL - Puka Nacua
TE - Darren Waller
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Thanks... I agree... with the caveat of so far.Crushed it is an understatement! Look at this...Sounds like you crushed it.
I spent it on WR darts... my last two players added so that I'd have enough bye week depth were I Hodgins and P Nacua... J Reed and M Wilson were also in/out of variations. Alternately might have stuck with Olave instead of Chase as my #1 WR. Or dropped Dotson, though I was pretty high on him (still time...).
But either way, I was pretty locked in on my top 3 choices at both RB and TE (I also cut J Warren for $11 late in the process that also went to WR... I think that was more the Olave->Chase upgrade), so WR was where I was still futzing around up to the deadline and where I'd say that QB2 $ went. I also went with only 2 Ds instead of my preferred 3 to contribute $3 to the pool available at WR... liking $3 Nacua over having a 3rd D so far this year.
QB - Justin Herbert
RB - Christian McCaffrey
RB - Austin Ekeler
WR - Tyreek Hill
WR - JaMarr Chase
FL - Alvin Kamara
FL - Puka Nacua
TE - Darren Waller
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Yeah I have a similar build but went with Burrow and Jefferson instead of Herbert and Chase. And Bijan instead of Ekeler. JJ never missed a game until nowCrushed it is an understatement! Look at this...Sounds like you crushed it.
I spent it on WR darts... my last two players added so that I'd have enough bye week depth were I Hodgins and P Nacua... J Reed and M Wilson were also in/out of variations. Alternately might have stuck with Olave instead of Chase as my #1 WR. Or dropped Dotson, though I was pretty high on him (still time...).
But either way, I was pretty locked in on my top 3 choices at both RB and TE (I also cut J Warren for $11 late in the process that also went to WR... I think that was more the Olave->Chase upgrade), so WR was where I was still futzing around up to the deadline and where I'd say that QB2 $ went. I also went with only 2 Ds instead of my preferred 3 to contribute $3 to the pool available at WR... liking $3 Nacua over having a 3rd D so far this year.
QB - Justin Herbert
RB - Christian McCaffrey
RB - Austin Ekeler
WR - Tyreek Hill
WR - JaMarr Chase
FL - Alvin Kamara
FL - Puka Nacua
TE - Darren Waller
@Stray Doug strategy was extremely sound and he landed on the big hitters and value picks.
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Currently, the top 10 most common QB's are:
1329 - Howell
893 - Pickett - BYE
879 - Love - BYE
708 - Tagovailoa
660 - Goff
534 - Fields
528 - Richardson - IR
508 - Carr
499 - Rodgers - IR
491 - Lawrence
The bolded guys were not the expensive studs, but I assume many entries will be at the mercy of a single QB this week.
1329 - Howell
893 - Pickett - BYE
879 - Love - BYE
708 - Tagovailoa
660 - Goff
534 - Fields
528 - Richardson - IR
508 - Carr
499 - Rodgers - IR
491 - Lawrence
The bolded guys were not the expensive studs, but I assume many entries will be at the mercy of a single QB this week.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Down to Goff away at TB with Rodgers gone and Pickett on bye.
Chubb is gone, Gibbs is out, Warren on bye. I'm down to Mosfert (Achane out but Jeff Wilson is back) and Zeke Elliot (but Patriots disaster).
The rest of my flex pool....3 ok WR options and 1 bad one...Waller a gtd, gimpy LaPorta away at TB and Conklin vs Eagles.
WR Garrett Wilson - surviving without rodgers
WR George Pickens - bye week
WR Jahan Dotson - wasted pick
WR Gabe Davis - slightly above expectation
WR Kendrick Bourne - should start with douglas and parker out
WR Tank Dell - conc protocol likely out
TE Darren Waller - questionable, gtd
TE Sam LaPorta - questionable but practiced
TE Tyler Conklin - questionable early in the week
Probably the best thing I have going is that I think its going to be a tough week across the contest....thinking the cut will be low in the 135-140 range.
Chubb is gone, Gibbs is out, Warren on bye. I'm down to Mosfert (Achane out but Jeff Wilson is back) and Zeke Elliot (but Patriots disaster).
The rest of my flex pool....3 ok WR options and 1 bad one...Waller a gtd, gimpy LaPorta away at TB and Conklin vs Eagles.
WR Garrett Wilson - surviving without rodgers
WR George Pickens - bye week
WR Jahan Dotson - wasted pick
WR Gabe Davis - slightly above expectation
WR Kendrick Bourne - should start with douglas and parker out
WR Tank Dell - conc protocol likely out
TE Darren Waller - questionable, gtd
TE Sam LaPorta - questionable but practiced
TE Tyler Conklin - questionable early in the week
Probably the best thing I have going is that I think its going to be a tough week across the contest....thinking the cut will be low in the 135-140 range.
Dez
Footballguy
Dang it missed this one that is a huge miss this is the kind of pick that is king in this contest
Not counting the 6 FA kickers, after 5 weeks...
The best $3 spent is Fairbairn = 63.4
The worst $3 spent is Carlson = 37.4
The best $4 spent is Pineiro = 47.5
The worst $4 spent is Patterson = 36.5
The best $5 spent is Elliott = 76.4
The worst $5 spent is Joseph = 27.0
The best $6 spent is Maher/Santos = 77.9
The worst $6 spent is Koo = 38.9
The best $7 spent is Zuerlein/Maher = 78.2
The worst $7 spent is Carlson = 24.7
The best $8 spent is Elliott/Santos = 83.6
The worst $8 spent is Tucker = 32.3
The best $3 spent is Fairbairn = 63.4
The worst $3 spent is Carlson = 37.4
The best $4 spent is Pineiro = 47.5
The worst $4 spent is Patterson = 36.5
The best $5 spent is Elliott = 76.4
The worst $5 spent is Joseph = 27.0
The best $6 spent is Maher/Santos = 77.9
The worst $6 spent is Koo = 38.9
The best $7 spent is Zuerlein/Maher = 78.2
The worst $7 spent is Carlson = 24.7
The best $8 spent is Elliott/Santos = 83.6
The worst $8 spent is Tucker = 32.3
We kick off Sunday with an early game (9:30am EST) between BAL & TEN. In order of commonality:
1358 - WR Zay Flowers ($10)
731 - TD Baltimore Ravens ($5)
412 - RB Tyjae Spears ($9)
405 - RB JK Dobbins ($21) - IR
397 - QB Lamar Jackson ($22)
359 - PK Justin Tucker ($8)
298 - TD Tennessee Titans ($3)
260 - WR Odell Beckham ($9)
186 - TE Isaiah Likely ($5)
167 - DeAndre Hopkins ($19)
158 - TE Mark Andrews ($28)
145 - Chigoziem Okonkwo ($14)
123 - WR Rashod Bateman ($11)
111 - QB Ryan Tannehill ($8)
76 - WR Treylon Burks ($14)
68 - RB Derrick Henry ($30)
38 - RB Gus Edwards ($9)
24 - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3)
13 - QB Will Levis ($3)
The only player on my roster is Zay Flowers, so you know who I'll be rooting for. Bring on the foosball!
1358 - WR Zay Flowers ($10)
731 - TD Baltimore Ravens ($5)
412 - RB Tyjae Spears ($9)
405 - RB JK Dobbins ($21) - IR
397 - QB Lamar Jackson ($22)
359 - PK Justin Tucker ($8)
298 - TD Tennessee Titans ($3)
260 - WR Odell Beckham ($9)
186 - TE Isaiah Likely ($5)
167 - DeAndre Hopkins ($19)
158 - TE Mark Andrews ($28)
145 - Chigoziem Okonkwo ($14)
123 - WR Rashod Bateman ($11)
111 - QB Ryan Tannehill ($8)
76 - WR Treylon Burks ($14)
68 - RB Derrick Henry ($30)
38 - RB Gus Edwards ($9)
24 - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3)
13 - QB Will Levis ($3)
The only player on my roster is Zay Flowers, so you know who I'll be rooting for. Bring on the foosball!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Thanks to jdkapow for the spreadsheet, I think I figured it out... I tried looking at how many QBs the remaining teams have going this week (omitting injured, bye week, and backup QBs) and came up with the following:
3 unfortunate teams put together rosters with a full 4 QB combo consisting of Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett and then 1 each had Richardson/Jones/Watson as their 4th
- 100: no QB this week... 82 of these have Love or Pickett, but the other 18 could find themselves with 0 QB again next week
- 1353: 1 QB... almost 800 of these have Love/Pickett, 45 have already had their bye, and then over 500 haven't had their bye yet (but some might get Jones/Watson/Richardson back at some point). Only 73 of these are "by design" (started out with a 1 QB roster).
- 2443: 2 QBs.
- 683: 3 QBs
- 58: 4 QBs
- 17: 5 or more QBs
3 unfortunate teams put together rosters with a full 4 QB combo consisting of Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett and then 1 each had Richardson/Jones/Watson as their 4th
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
That's just not fair.
Or as my redneck father in law says: "There's two kinds of fair in life: county and state."
