Well probably won’t get there unless Chase or Chase do something in 4Q. If they had decent games probably would get to that cut line
I was pretty close week 2 with my guess ( see Sept 16 post 126.5 and Final Cut 127.15)
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- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
I was pretty close week 2 with my guess ( see Sept 16 post 126.5 and Final Cut 127.15)
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Based on the Arm-o-matic it looks like I made it by 2.10!! 
All 5 of Tua, Miami D, Mason, Franklin, and Chase Brown ended up improving my score. Unbelievable.
Using my rule that when there's a tie (like there was for 2 of my kickers last week, usage tie goes to the guy that I already used). So with that I've now managed to use 21 of my 25 players.
Turpin (somewhat surprisingly), Palmer, Douglas, and Grupe (based on the tiebreaker) are the 4 that haven't contributed yet.
-QG
All 5 of Tua, Miami D, Mason, Franklin, and Chase Brown ended up improving my score. Unbelievable.
Using my rule that when there's a tie (like there was for 2 of my kickers last week, usage tie goes to the guy that I already used). So with that I've now managed to use 21 of my 25 players.
Turpin (somewhat surprisingly), Palmer, Douglas, and Grupe (based on the tiebreaker) are the 4 that haven't contributed yet.
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
PK: 3 for $10
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/5 - $4 - 1915 own him
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3 - 724
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3 - 1568 (17 people have these 3) Oh crud I dropped the wrong kicker - this was supposed to be Graham Ganonow I have 2 kickers on Week 5 bye
I usually like to go 3 guys for $9 if possible but a couple of those options have already lost their job and another couple are shaky so it got me looking to splurge and up my total spend to $10. Chad Ryland had that 97-yard field goal and it had me sold for most of my process. But in the back of my mind Boswell has been good for a good while in PIttsburgh and that feels like a team that is going to be in a lot of 19-16 rock fights so the switch was made. I swapped in Grupe late figuring that surely if that Saints points they will be mostly field goals and also figured it would mix things up a bit....and I stupidly dropped the wrong kicker in the process (Keeping Santos when I really intended to keep Gano - well gonna dump another permutation into my tracking of my versions and zany entries). I Also would have had a more unique lineup. Oh well - it's not like Gano is always a sure thing as he has had a tendency to get injured. And at least I screwed up with an early enough bye...
Well go figure. This screw up saved me this week as Gano had a zero of course and Santos beat Grupe by 10.30 which was way more than the cut line.
Sometimes better to be lucky than good!
-QG
144.85 and onto week 5. It wasn’t clear but this post was about my cut line guess not my team!
apalmer
Footballguy
Out by .55 points. Agonizing watching Brown creep up to exactly the point where he'd start adding to my score and then never touch the ball again, watching Franklin drop a pass that would have made me safe, then watching Denver pound away with both RBs so that the owners of each could pass me with less than 3 minutes left in the game.
Dacomish
Footballguy
A few ties shifted UNOFFICIAL future Cut lines, (not counting ties that may affect the final cut numbers):
Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number –6502 Now 6508
20% Week 5 cut to Number –5202 Now 5207
20% Week 6 cut to Number –4162 Now 4166
20% Week 7 cut to Number –3330 Now 3333
30% Week 8 cut to Number –2331Now 2334
30% Week 9 cut to Number –1632 Now 1634
30% Week 10 cut to Number –1443 Now 1144
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 801
30% Week 12 cut to Number –561
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 337
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number –
20% Week 5 cut to Number –
20% Week 6 cut to Number –
20% Week 7 cut to Number –
30% Week 8 cut to Number –
30% Week 9 cut to Number –
30% Week 10 cut to Number –
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 801
30% Week 12 cut to Number –561
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 337
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
We started the week with 45 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant badge offer. The great news is we still have 42 
; the bad news is we lost @apalmer @Mojo56 @reflint 
Moving on to week 5 are:
@Irelad - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105109/week/1
@ZWK - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104585/week/1
@Galileo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102193/week/1
@rzrback77 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110111/week/1
@TheWinz - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102376/week/1
@scottybo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100693/week/1
@Tha Guru - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109783/week/1
@Maggot Brain - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105999/week/1
@-OZ- - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108784/week/1
@ClownDogs - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102155/week/1
@JoeSteeler - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101707/week/1
@MikesVikes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107455/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102212/week/1
@WoodedHills - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100720/week/1
@rustycolts - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104536/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104930/week/1
@H8fulHuck - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109705/week/1
@IHEARTFF - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104094/week/1
@ConstruxBoy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107958/week/1
@SeniorVBDStudent - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111053/week/1
@Church of Iggy Pop - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110444/week/1
@dbc925 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110116/week/1
@J Rod - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100110/week/1
@formerfourdigit - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108618/week/1
@dzambo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109048/week/1
@BlackCrowes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105260/week/1
@davidwb - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104854/week/1
@cstruk - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100211/week/1
@fightingillini - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107904/week/1
@Golden Gopher - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104995/week/1
@Scoresman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105305/week/1
@Hot Sauce Guy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109871/week/1
@Birdie048 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107712/week/1
@kajaet - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102872/week/1
@Charles in Houston - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101260/week/1
@da_budman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102339/week/1
@JaBoo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107978/week/1
@Gatorade - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102094/week/1
@Shaunz33 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105827/week/1
@The Jerminator - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107831/week/1
@brun - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100191/week/1
@a_troll00 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105628/week/1
@Deamon - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100194/week/1
@jm192 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106187/week/1
Of note
- Deamon was this week's top dog with 207.05 (116th place)
- scottybo was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 141.05 (6307th place)
Good luck in week 5!
; the bad news is we lost @apalmer @Mojo56 @reflint Moving on to week 5 are:
@Irelad - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105109/week/1
@ZWK - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104585/week/1
@Galileo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102193/week/1
@rzrback77 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110111/week/1
@TheWinz - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102376/week/1
@scottybo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100693/week/1
@Tha Guru - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109783/week/1
@Maggot Brain - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105999/week/1
@-OZ- - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108784/week/1
@ClownDogs - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102155/week/1
@JoeSteeler - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101707/week/1
@MikesVikes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107455/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102212/week/1
@WoodedHills - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100720/week/1
@rustycolts - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104536/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104930/week/1
@H8fulHuck - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109705/week/1
@IHEARTFF - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104094/week/1
@ConstruxBoy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107958/week/1
@SeniorVBDStudent - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111053/week/1
@Church of Iggy Pop - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110444/week/1
@dbc925 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110116/week/1
@J Rod - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100110/week/1
@formerfourdigit - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108618/week/1
@dzambo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109048/week/1
@BlackCrowes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105260/week/1
@davidwb - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104854/week/1
@cstruk - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100211/week/1
@fightingillini - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107904/week/1
@Golden Gopher - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104995/week/1
@Scoresman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105305/week/1
@Hot Sauce Guy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109871/week/1
@Birdie048 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107712/week/1
@kajaet - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102872/week/1
@Charles in Houston - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101260/week/1
@da_budman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102339/week/1
@JaBoo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107978/week/1
@Gatorade - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102094/week/1
@Shaunz33 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105827/week/1
@The Jerminator - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107831/week/1
@brun - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100191/week/1
@a_troll00 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105628/week/1
@Deamon - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100194/week/1
@jm192 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106187/week/1
Of note
- Deamon was this week's top dog with 207.05 (116th place)
- scottybo was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 141.05 (6307th place)
Good luck in week 5!
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
in trouble if Daniels doesn't play next week with no Love
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah that would be less than ideal.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Will be missing Love this week but hopefully Stroud against a banged up Ravens def can carry the load.
Saint
Footballguy
Dropped 196.55, highest all season. Now losing Love, Swift, Metcalf, Golden, Boswell and Falcons D. Bye Week Money: $71 or 28.4% of my rooster.... big risk with that much in the first week, but I also felt more likely to make a cut early than late. I'm relying on Trevor Lawrence... god help me.
Dead Money Update: $40
Dead Money Update: $40
- Calvin? Calvin? Ridley? - Yes, you cost me $16 and haven't gotten above 8.70. Time to man up.
- Matthew Golden - $12 but on the rise each week.... This was planned and I expect him to crack the starting lineup after the bye.
- Jalen Coker - $3... your time on the IR is almost over. No one has stepped up to take your spot... Come home baby... come home!
- Pat Bryant = $2... 1 week out of 4 where you had points. Thank goodness you only cost $2.
- Chris Boswell - $4... been a slow couple of weeks... need you to make some points after the bye.
- Miami Dolphins... $3... it's been a rough road... but I have faith that one week you will count for me.
Last edited:
Time to see if my gamble of going heavy on Week 5 byes pays off. I've got $89 on bye (36% of my whole roster budget). If my expected remaining starters produce what they have been averaging, I'll score just under 147 points, hopefully they can pull that off! Average scores through 4 weeks and expected starters bolded. Chase Brown and Nick Chubb as my only hopes at RB is a scary thought...
QB Jared Goff - $16 24.89
QB Jordan Love - $15 bye (25.8)
RB Bijan Robinson - $37 bye (19.85)
RB Chase Brown - $26 8.05
RB Braelon Allen - $10 4.08
RB Nick Chubb - $8 8.22
RB Keaton Mitchell - $4 0.00
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 15.65
WR Calvin Ridley - $16 6.02
WR Rome Odunze - $15 bye (19.9)
WR Emeka Egbuka - $10 17.78
WR Tre Tucker - $5 15.85
WR Keenan Allen - $5 16.28
WR Elic Ayomanor - $2 9.78
TE T.J. Hockenson - $18 9.25
TE Tucker Kraft - $15 bye (14.7)
TE Tyler Warren - $14 15.35
PK Cam Little - $4 9.40
PK Chris Boswell - $4 bye (9.75)
TD Kansas City Chiefs - $4 7.00
TD Atlanta Falcons - $3 bye (5.5)
QB Jared Goff - $16 24.89
QB Jordan Love - $15 bye (25.8)
RB Bijan Robinson - $37 bye (19.85)
RB Chase Brown - $26 8.05
RB Braelon Allen - $10 4.08
RB Nick Chubb - $8 8.22
RB Keaton Mitchell - $4 0.00
WR Courtland Sutton - $19 15.65
WR Calvin Ridley - $16 6.02
WR Rome Odunze - $15 bye (19.9)
WR Emeka Egbuka - $10 17.78
WR Tre Tucker - $5 15.85
WR Keenan Allen - $5 16.28
WR Elic Ayomanor - $2 9.78
TE T.J. Hockenson - $18 9.25
TE Tucker Kraft - $15 bye (14.7)
TE Tyler Warren - $14 15.35
PK Cam Little - $4 9.40
PK Chris Boswell - $4 bye (9.75)
TD Kansas City Chiefs - $4 7.00
TD Atlanta Falcons - $3 bye (5.5)
Because you all asked, here is my team:
QB - Dak Prescott & Geno Smith
Still happy with this duo, they are doing a great job of alternating good weeks. Have used each twice, and averaging 32 pts
RB - Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, RJ Harvey, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Woody Marks
One single flex score in week 1, have used all but Harvey twice each, but he did come alive and I used him this week.
WR - Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Stefon Diggs, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen Coker, Kayshon Boutte, Jahan Dotson
Five flex scores. McLaurin being out hurts, hoping Coker comes off IR and sees decent targets. Hurts needs to pass more for Dotson to be relevant. Coker & Dotson unused
TE - Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth
Two flex scores. Freiermuth is a bust, so need Goedert to stay on the field. Kincaid doing just fine. Freiermuth unused
PK - Daniel Carlson, Chris Boswell, Tyler Loop
Boswell & Loop used twice each. Carlson unused
TD - KC, LAC, NE
KC & NE used twice each. LAC unused
QB - Dak Prescott & Geno Smith
Still happy with this duo, they are doing a great job of alternating good weeks. Have used each twice, and averaging 32 pts
RB - Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, RJ Harvey, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Woody Marks
One single flex score in week 1, have used all but Harvey twice each, but he did come alive and I used him this week.
WR - Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Stefon Diggs, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen Coker, Kayshon Boutte, Jahan Dotson
Five flex scores. McLaurin being out hurts, hoping Coker comes off IR and sees decent targets. Hurts needs to pass more for Dotson to be relevant. Coker & Dotson unused
TE - Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth
Two flex scores. Freiermuth is a bust, so need Goedert to stay on the field. Kincaid doing just fine. Freiermuth unused
PK - Daniel Carlson, Chris Boswell, Tyler Loop
Boswell & Loop used twice each. Carlson unused
TD - KC, LAC, NE
KC & NE used twice each. LAC unused
joey
Footballguy
Sorry to hear this, man. I’ll be sure not to bump the thread to remind you that you were eliminated too.
Yes, that would be rude to bump when a loser is part of the chat. And especially when 2 people are...Sorry to hear this, man. I’ll be sure not to bump the thread to remind you that you were eliminated too.
Puppies
Footballguy
The amount of cap money on bye for any given week is actually irrelevant unless it closely mirrors the percentage of your projected fantasy points that are on bye that week. In other words, the amount of cap money spend on those players is only indicative of the ability of those players to score points to the extent that their cap number is set exactly proportional to their projected fantasy point production. Most of the higher priced (stud) players are overpriced, and you can verify that by looking at their projected points and dividing by their cap number. If you happen to have mostly stud (overpriced) players on bye in a given bye week, odds are that you actually have less of your projected ability to score points than the dollar amount would indicate, because you overpaid for those players.
If you look at the entire field of players for any of the positions, you'll always find that overall, you are getting less projected fantasy points per cap dollar from players at the top of the list, compared to the players at the bottom of the list. You can use this information to identify value players, by comparing their projected fantasy points per cap dollar. This has always been standard procedure for me when I am constructing a lineup.
With nothing better to do when I read your post, I wondered what percentage of your projected fantasy production would actually be on bye in week 5. So I went back to the last published stat projections using the consensus of the 7 FootballGuys gurus that I use for that, and here's what I found:
The grand total of your roster's projected fantasy points for the entire season is 3,787 points, and you have 1,313 of those projected points out of bye in week 5. That comes out to 34.67% of the total. So in this particular case, your cap dollars on bye (35.6%) actually does closely resemble the amount of projected points that are out on bye, assuming you consider the FootballGuys stat projections to be reasonably accurate.
Other risk factors to consider are the fact that there are 4 NFL teams (or 12.5% of the league) on bye in week 5, so we might expect the total number of fantasy points scored by all players of all teams to be less than a normal week, likely resulting in a slightly lower cut line compared to a week with no teams on bye, which helps offset the number of players that your particular roster has on bye. Additionally, although 20% of the entries will be eliminated in week 5, that's a lot better scenario than if you had the same number of players out on bye in a later week when 30% or 40% of the entries will be eliminated. It's good to front load your bye weeks as much as possible and I have gone through pains to do that myself with my roster.
Comparing your stats to those of my own roster, my total team projected fantasy points for the season is 4,702 and I have 4 players totaling 873 projected points (or 18.6% of my projected point total) on bye in week 5. But in cap dollars, those 4 players only make up 16% of my team's total of $250 cap dollars spent. If I was only considering cap dollars, I might not have realized that week 5 is a little riskier than the cap dollars indicate.
Looking at the context of which players we each have on bye, you are probably at a slight disadvantage in that you have 4 skill players (QB, RB, WR, TE) on bye, plus one each of Kicker and Defense. Among them are your QB2, RB1, WR3, and TE2, which represent players that you likely expect to count most weeks. And you only have 1 additional player active in week 5 at both PK and DEF , so you only have 2 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF in week 5. Whatever they score is all you'll get.
In my case, I have only 3 skill position players on bye (QB, WR, TE), including my QB1, WR3, and TE3 and note that through the first 4 weeks, my QB1 has counted 3 of the 4 weeks, while only one score has counted from the WR3 and TE3 combined through the first 4 weeks. So hopefully I will not be missing much from having the WR3 and TE3 on bye. Additionally I have 2 additional kickers and all 3 defenses active in week 5, so I have 5 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF.
All that said, anything can happen and I might every well get eliminated next week, while you may move on to week 6. But at least I played the numbers and did my best to take the road that provides the best mathematical chance to survive. Calculating this is the kind of stuff that happens when we are bored and have 3 days to wait
until the next football game. Good luck in week 5
fightingillini
Footballguy
Team Illini is ready to get slaughtered like the Hoosiers slaughtered my Illini two weeks ago (that was embarrassing).
QB - Caleb Williams and Jared Goff
Got a big week from one of them in weeks 2 and 3. They are both were meh this week.
RB - Chase Brown, Treyveon Henderson, Zach Charbonnet, Jerome Ford, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
These RBs are why I am going to be out in the next couple of weeks. Really need Henderson to step up.
WR - Courtland Sutton, Tetairoa McMillan, Ricky Pearsall, Rashod Bateman, Emeka Egbuka, Joshua Palmer.
Egbuka has been great but he's on a lot of teams. Pearsall is nicked up, Bateman and Palmer have been busts. Sutton has been solid.
TE - Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, Brenton Strange
Kelce is washed up, but Warren is the real deal. Strange helps with flex scores.
PK - Evan McPherson, Graham Gano, Cairo Santos
Basically playing with one kicker......and he's on bye next week.
TD - KC, LV, ATL
At least this group isn't killing me
QB - Caleb Williams and Jared Goff
Got a big week from one of them in weeks 2 and 3. They are both were meh this week.
RB - Chase Brown, Treyveon Henderson, Zach Charbonnet, Jerome Ford, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
These RBs are why I am going to be out in the next couple of weeks. Really need Henderson to step up.
WR - Courtland Sutton, Tetairoa McMillan, Ricky Pearsall, Rashod Bateman, Emeka Egbuka, Joshua Palmer.
Egbuka has been great but he's on a lot of teams. Pearsall is nicked up, Bateman and Palmer have been busts. Sutton has been solid.
TE - Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, Brenton Strange
Kelce is washed up, but Warren is the real deal. Strange helps with flex scores.
PK - Evan McPherson, Graham Gano, Cairo Santos
Basically playing with one kicker......and he's on bye next week.
TD - KC, LV, ATL
At least this group isn't killing me
rustycolts
Footballguy
Note to self for next season . Have 3 QBs rostered. I won't have a qb for the week coming up for one team and won't for the 2nd team next week. Oof have to hope for a miracle.
Saint
Footballguy
The amount of cap money on bye for any given week is actually irrelevant unless it closely mirrors the percentage of your projected fantasy points that are on bye that week. In other words, the amount of cap money spend on those players is only indicative of the ability of those players to score points to the extent that their cap number is set exactly proportional to their projected fantasy point production. Most of the higher priced (stud) players are overpriced, and you can verify that by looking at their projected points and dividing by their cap number. If you happen to have mostly stud (overpriced) players on bye in a given bye week, odds are that you actually have less of your projected ability to score points than the dollar amount would indicate, because you overpaid for those players.
If you look at the entire field of players for any of the positions, you'll always find that overall, you are getting less projected fantasy points per cap dollar from players at the top of the list, compared to the players at the bottom of the list. You can use this information to identify value players, by comparing their projected fantasy points per cap dollar. This has always been standard procedure for me when I am constructing a lineup.
With nothing better to do when I read your post, I wondered what percentage of your projected fantasy production would actually be on bye in week 5. So I went back to the last published stat projections using the consensus of the 7 FootballGuys gurus that I use for that, and here's what I found:
The grand total of your roster's projected fantasy points for the entire season is 3,787 points, and you have 1,313 of those projected points out of bye in week 5. That comes out to 34.67% of the total. So in this particular case, your cap dollars on bye (35.6%) actually does closely resemble the amount of projected points that are out on bye, assuming you consider the FootballGuys stat projections to be reasonably accurate.
Other risk factors to consider are the fact that there are 4 NFL teams (or 12.5% of the league) on bye in week 5, so we might expect the total number of fantasy points scored by all players of all teams to be less than a normal week, likely resulting in a slightly lower cut line compared to a week with no teams on bye, which helps offset the number of players that your particular roster has on bye. Additionally, although 20% of the entries will be eliminated in week 5, that's a lot better scenario than if you had the same number of players out on bye in a later week when 30% or 40% of the entries will be eliminated. It's good to front load your bye weeks as much as possible and I have gone through pains to do that myself with my roster.
Comparing your stats to those of my own roster, my total team projected fantasy points for the season is 4,702 and I have 4 players totaling 873 projected points (or 18.6% of my projected point total) on bye in week 5. But in cap dollars, those 4 players only make up 16% of my team's total of $250 cap dollars spent. If I was only considering cap dollars, I might not have realized that week 5 is a little riskier than the cap dollars indicate.
Looking at the context of which players we each have on bye, you are probably at a slight disadvantage in that you have 4 skill players (QB, RB, WR, TE) on bye, plus one each of Kicker and Defense. Among them are your QB2, RB1, WR3, and TE2, which represent players that you likely expect to count most weeks. And you only have 1 additional player active in week 5 at both PK and DEF , so you only have 2 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF in week 5. Whatever they score is all you'll get.
In my case, I have only 3 skill position players on bye (QB, WR, TE), including my QB1, WR3, and TE3 and note that through the first 4 weeks, my QB1 has counted 3 of the 4 weeks, while only one score has counted from the WR3 and TE3 combined through the first 4 weeks. So hopefully I will not be missing much from having the WR3 and TE3 on bye. Additionally I have 2 additional kickers and all 3 defenses active in week 5, so I have 5 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF.
All that said, anything can happen and I might every well get eliminated next week, while you may move on to week 6. But at least I played the numbers and did my best to take the road that provides the best mathematical chance to survive. Calculating this is the kind of stuff that happens when we are bored and have 3 days to wait
Good luck in week 5
Nice post @Puppies. I'll take a swing at this using the same logic. I have the following player positions on bye: QB1, RB1, WR2, WR3, PK, TD. Total roster projections based on initial draft is 4,241 points and I have 6 players on bye totaling 1,131 points or 26.7% of my available points. In cap dollars, that represents 28.4% of my rooster. Doesn't sound too bad.
While this is good, I think we should modify it slightly to include players that are out in addition to bye weeks to account for total risk. In my context, I also have George Kittle and Graham Gano (and potentially Pearsall) who also won't count for me this week. Adding them to the equation brings me to a total of 1,488 points missing this week (35% of available points) and a total of almost 40% of my rooster cap. Ruh roh shaggy.
Now let's add another layer and average the points for each person in the available rooster and then take the top players for each category and flex. Using the average of my players at each position, I am projected to score 124.49 points this week. Rough. Using FBG projections, my projected points are 120.27. Definitely heading the wrong direction here.
So what does it all mean? It means I need Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley and Chase Brown to show up this week. LFG Boys!
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tylenol, man.
The amount of cap money on bye for any given week is actually irrelevant unless it closely mirrors the percentage of your projected fantasy points that are on bye that week. In other words, the amount of cap money spend on those players is only indicative of the ability of those players to score points to the extent that their cap number is set exactly proportional to their projected fantasy point production. Most of the higher priced (stud) players are overpriced, and you can verify that by looking at their projected points and dividing by their cap number. If you happen to have mostly stud (overpriced) players on bye in a given bye week, odds are that you actually have less of your projected ability to score points than the dollar amount would indicate, because you overpaid for those players.
If you look at the entire field of players for any of the positions, you'll always find that overall, you are getting less projected fantasy points per cap dollar from players at the top of the list, compared to the players at the bottom of the list. You can use this information to identify value players, by comparing their projected fantasy points per cap dollar. This has always been standard procedure for me when I am constructing a lineup.
With nothing better to do when I read your post, I wondered what percentage of your projected fantasy production would actually be on bye in week 5. So I went back to the last published stat projections using the consensus of the 7 FootballGuys gurus that I use for that, and here's what I found:
The grand total of your roster's projected fantasy points for the entire season is 3,787 points, and you have 1,313 of those projected points out of bye in week 5. That comes out to 34.67% of the total. So in this particular case, your cap dollars on bye (35.6%) actually does closely resemble the amount of projected points that are out on bye, assuming you consider the FootballGuys stat projections to be reasonably accurate.
Other risk factors to consider are the fact that there are 4 NFL teams (or 12.5% of the league) on bye in week 5, so we might expect the total number of fantasy points scored by all players of all teams to be less than a normal week, likely resulting in a slightly lower cut line compared to a week with no teams on bye, which helps offset the number of players that your particular roster has on bye. Additionally, although 20% of the entries will be eliminated in week 5, that's a lot better scenario than if you had the same number of players out on bye in a later week when 30% or 40% of the entries will be eliminated. It's good to front load your bye weeks as much as possible and I have gone through pains to do that myself with my roster.
Comparing your stats to those of my own roster, my total team projected fantasy points for the season is 4,702 and I have 4 players totaling 873 projected points (or 18.6% of my projected point total) on bye in week 5. But in cap dollars, those 4 players only make up 16% of my team's total of $250 cap dollars spent. If I was only considering cap dollars, I might not have realized that week 5 is a little riskier than the cap dollars indicate.
Looking at the context of which players we each have on bye, you are probably at a slight disadvantage in that you have 4 skill players (QB, RB, WR, TE) on bye, plus one each of Kicker and Defense. Among them are your QB2, RB1, WR3, and TE2, which represent players that you likely expect to count most weeks. And you only have 1 additional player active in week 5 at both PK and DEF , so you only have 2 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF in week 5. Whatever they score is all you'll get.
In my case, I have only 3 skill position players on bye (QB, WR, TE), including my QB1, WR3, and TE3 and note that through the first 4 weeks, my QB1 has counted 3 of the 4 weeks, while only one score has counted from the WR3 and TE3 combined through the first 4 weeks. So hopefully I will not be missing much from having the WR3 and TE3 on bye. Additionally I have 2 additional kickers and all 3 defenses active in week 5, so I have 5 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF.
All that said, anything can happen and I might every well get eliminated next week, while you may move on to week 6. But at least I played the numbers and did my best to take the road that provides the best mathematical chance to survive. Calculating this is the kind of stuff that happens when we are bored and have 3 days to wait
Good luck in week 5
j/k that was an amazing read.
Puppies
Footballguy
The amount of cap money on bye for any given week is actually irrelevant unless it closely mirrors the percentage of your projected fantasy points that are on bye that week. In other words, the amount of cap money spend on those players is only indicative of the ability of those players to score points to the extent that their cap number is set exactly proportional to their projected fantasy point production. Most of the higher priced (stud) players are overpriced, and you can verify that by looking at their projected points and dividing by their cap number. If you happen to have mostly stud (overpriced) players on bye in a given bye week, odds are that you actually have less of your projected ability to score points than the dollar amount would indicate, because you overpaid for those players.
If you look at the entire field of players for any of the positions, you'll always find that overall, you are getting less projected fantasy points per cap dollar from players at the top of the list, compared to the players at the bottom of the list. You can use this information to identify value players, by comparing their projected fantasy points per cap dollar. This has always been standard procedure for me when I am constructing a lineup.
With nothing better to do when I read your post, I wondered what percentage of your projected fantasy production would actually be on bye in week 5. So I went back to the last published stat projections using the consensus of the 7 FootballGuys gurus that I use for that, and here's what I found:
The grand total of your roster's projected fantasy points for the entire season is 3,787 points, and you have 1,313 of those projected points out of bye in week 5. That comes out to 34.67% of the total. So in this particular case, your cap dollars on bye (35.6%) actually does closely resemble the amount of projected points that are out on bye, assuming you consider the FootballGuys stat projections to be reasonably accurate.
Other risk factors to consider are the fact that there are 4 NFL teams (or 12.5% of the league) on bye in week 5, so we might expect the total number of fantasy points scored by all players of all teams to be less than a normal week, likely resulting in a slightly lower cut line compared to a week with no teams on bye, which helps offset the number of players that your particular roster has on bye. Additionally, although 20% of the entries will be eliminated in week 5, that's a lot better scenario than if you had the same number of players out on bye in a later week when 30% or 40% of the entries will be eliminated. It's good to front load your bye weeks as much as possible and I have gone through pains to do that myself with my roster.
Comparing your stats to those of my own roster, my total team projected fantasy points for the season is 4,702 and I have 4 players totaling 873 projected points (or 18.6% of my projected point total) on bye in week 5. But in cap dollars, those 4 players only make up 16% of my team's total of $250 cap dollars spent. If I was only considering cap dollars, I might not have realized that week 5 is a little riskier than the cap dollars indicate.
Looking at the context of which players we each have on bye, you are probably at a slight disadvantage in that you have 4 skill players (QB, RB, WR, TE) on bye, plus one each of Kicker and Defense. Among them are your QB2, RB1, WR3, and TE2, which represent players that you likely expect to count most weeks. And you only have 1 additional player active in week 5 at both PK and DEF , so you only have 2 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF in week 5. Whatever they score is all you'll get.
In my case, I have only 3 skill position players on bye (QB, WR, TE), including my QB1, WR3, and TE3 and note that through the first 4 weeks, my QB1 has counted 3 of the 4 weeks, while only one score has counted from the WR3 and TE3 combined through the first 4 weeks. So hopefully I will not be missing much from having the WR3 and TE3 on bye. Additionally I have 2 additional kickers and all 3 defenses active in week 5, so I have 5 chances to get 2 scores at PK and DEF.
All that said, anything can happen and I might every well get eliminated next week, while you may move on to week 6. But at least I played the numbers and did my best to take the road that provides the best mathematical chance to survive. Calculating this is the kind of stuff that happens when we are bored and have 3 days to wait
Good luck in week 5
Nice post @Puppies. I'll take a swing at this using the same logic. I have the following player positions on bye: QB1, RB1, WR2, WR3, PK, TD. Total roster projections based on initial draft is 4,241 points and I have 6 players on bye totaling 1,131 points or 26.7% of my available points. In cap dollars, that represents 28.4% of my rooster. Doesn't sound too bad.
While this is good, I think we should modify it slightly to include players that are out in addition to bye weeks to account for total risk. In my context, I also have George Kittle and Graham Gano (and potentially Pearsall) who also won't count fopr me this week. Adding them to the equation brings me to a total of 1,488 points missing this week (35% of available points) and a total of almost 40% of my rooster cap. Ruh roh shaggy.
Now let's add another layer and average the points for each person in the available rooster and then take the top players for each category and flex. Using the average of my players at each position, I am projected to score 124.49 points this week. Rough. Using FBG projections, my projected points are 120.27. Definitely heading the wrong direction here.
So what does it all mean? It means I need Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley and Chase Brown to show up this week. LFG Boys!
Interesting to see those stats on your bye week players for the coming week. And I appreciate you going through that exercise and posting the numbers. I would personally never go that high (26.7%) in a single week, but to make it even worse, when you add in your injuries I think you are treading on very thin ice. Maybe even cracking ice…
But that said, the good news is if you survive week 5, your bye week risk going forward will likely be a lot lower than other teams that manage to avoid elimination this week.
Good luck! I’ll be rooting for you.
EDIT:
Some of you guys may think I'm nuts, but I actually did all the calculations I described in my original post above for each week of the season as I was constructing my roster. I did this to assess and manage my weekly risk mathematically across the entire season. This resulted in not being able to roster certain players with late bye weeks, and allowed me to seek out alternatives with earlier bye weeks in order to front load my risk in the weeks with lower cut line percentages. While constructing my roster, I plugged in different players into my spreadsheet (along with their projected points) to see what effect different player substitutions would have on my bye week percentages and my overall bye week strategy.
Week 5 has the highest projected point total on bye for my roster at 18.6%, and that's by design. A close second is week 8, with 16.8% of my projected points on bye, but it's actually risker because that's the first week of 30% cuts. No other week has more than 11.8% on bye, and in the first 5 of the 9 weeks that have teams on bye, I will have already had 68.8% of my bye week points behind me. That leaves only 31.2% of my points on bye in the final 4 bye weeks combined. In the last 3 bye weeks of the season (weeks 11,12, and 14), I have only 10.3%, 4.8%, and 5.9% of my potential points on bye. It's especially important that in week 14, a full 40% of the remaining contest entries will be eliminated. So having only 5.9% of my potential points on bye likely gives me an advantage, assuming I'm still alive, over most of the other teams remaining.
All 3 QBs will have finished their byes by week 8;
The top 3 of 5 running backs will be finished with their byes in week 9;
The top 4 of 11 wide receivers will have their byes finished by week 9;
All 4 tight ends will have their byes finished by week 9,
Only 1 of my top 14 skill players (WR2) has a bye later than week 10.
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I just looked, and it shows 6511 remaining (6535 if you add in the staff entries). ???
Dacomish
Footballguy
I'll have a look tomorrow and amend my post as needed. Must be an oversight on my part.
Army Eye
Footballguy
Yes, there was a slight scoring update later in the week (Isiah Pacheco was missing 0.1 point) that moved three more people above the cut
Week 5 begins with Niners at the Rams. Ownership numbers for active players:
QB - Stafford (623), Garoppolo (104)
RB - McCaffrey (767), Williams (276), Corum (131), Guerendo (63), Robinson (39), Hunter (36), Juszczyk (18), James (4)
WR - Adams (350), Nacua (147), Valdes-Scantling (102), Atwell (28), Whittington (14)
TE - Ferguson (135), Higbee (117 - doubtful ATM)
PK - Karty (209)
TD - Rams (633), Niners (545)
1 team alive with Stafford, McCaffrey, Williams, and Nacua. Sadly, he also has Purdy, Pearsall, and Kittle.
QB - Stafford (623), Garoppolo (104)
RB - McCaffrey (767), Williams (276), Corum (131), Guerendo (63), Robinson (39), Hunter (36), Juszczyk (18), James (4)
WR - Adams (350), Nacua (147), Valdes-Scantling (102), Atwell (28), Whittington (14)
TE - Ferguson (135), Higbee (117 - doubtful ATM)
PK - Karty (209)
TD - Rams (633), Niners (545)
1 team alive with Stafford, McCaffrey, Williams, and Nacua. Sadly, he also has Purdy, Pearsall, and Kittle.
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
At least it's a soft matchup for Trev vs KC on monday night. Plus Love scores zero so you don't have to take a negative should things go too far south.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Purdy/Kittle/Pearsall owner here 
Hurts or bust this week at QB...Warren/Fannin have been serviceable. ...remaining WRs - Devonta Smith/Egbuka/Kirk/Slayton/Keenan Allen/Dotson/MVS
It would be a great week for Kirk or Slayton to show up.
Hurts or bust this week at QB...Warren/Fannin have been serviceable. ...remaining WRs - Devonta Smith/Egbuka/Kirk/Slayton/Keenan Allen/Dotson/MVS
It would be a great week for Kirk or Slayton to show up.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
When you only went with 5 RBs and one of them is Trey Benson
Dacomish
Footballguy
UPDATE 10/3: Due to an official FBG scoring update it affected future Cut lines by a few, so this is now updated, (not counting ties that may affect the final cut numbers):
Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number –6502 Now 6511
20% Week 5 cut to Number –5202 Now 5209
20% Week 6 cut to Number –4162 Now 4168
20% Week 7 cut to Number –3330 Now 3335
30% Week 8 cut to Number –2331Now 2335
30% Week 9 cut to Number –1632 Now 1635
30% Week 10 cut to Number –1443 Now 1145
30% Week 11 cut to Number –801Now 802
30% Week 12 cut to Number –561 Now 562
40% Week 13 cut to Number –337 Now 338
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number –
20% Week 5 cut to Number –
20% Week 6 cut to Number –
20% Week 7 cut to Number –
30% Week 8 cut to Number –
30% Week 9 cut to Number –
30% Week 10 cut to Number –
30% Week 11 cut to Number –
30% Week 12 cut to Number –
40% Week 13 cut to Number –
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Ditto (Pearsall WR4 of 7).
After 4 weeks, there are 5 D's averaging 8 or more pts per week. They are SEA, JAC, MIN, PIT, and DET. Only 1 was in the top 14 most common D's.
The most expensive D's were BAL, BUF, and DEN, at $7 each. They are currently D10, D21, and D30. Money well spent... NOT!
The most expensive D's were BAL, BUF, and DEN, at $7 each. They are currently D10, D21, and D30. Money well spent... NOT!
I have Jags, Falcons, and Bucs. Individually, pretty terrible. However somehow combined I have gotten 7, 14, 14, 15. I don't know if my luck will hold, but I will take it!
He's not sad, just resting his guys for the stretch run. He wishes us the best in joining him in week 6.
Yep. After I lost Burrow I’ve been down to just Tua as my only QB. Not sure what I was thinking. I’ve been advancing without a big sweat but my time can’t be to much longer.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
So we’re saying, for next year, it might be better to NOT shop from the $3 bargain bin anymore, and instead put a few more bucks towards kickers?
