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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
Based on past draft probability of success there is an 85% chance this will competeno, nothing will ever rival the Greatest Fleece in History
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
49ers defense isn't good enough to win a championship based on defense.
Ohio State hasn't had their Pro Day yet. NDSU and BYU have. So the thinking has to be this is for either Wilson or Lance...right?
Ohio State hasn't had their Pro Day yet. NDSU and BYU have. So the thinking has to be this is for either Wilson or Lance...right?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I dunno - Niners have a really good offense. QB is the obvious weakness, but with their ability to run the ball & now that they have 3 viable receiving weapons + Juice, I like their chances of competing so long as they have good health.
Obviously getting a QB upgrade would be impactful.
But their defense coupled with a super strong running game and a qb that does just enough is...imho
Sure okay, then if he's a 10+ year starter.
I just don't think you can call anything overpaying or underpaying until we even see who we draft and how it works out. If you're a coach and you're absolutely in love with a player and think you can turn him into a 10+ year starter, and another team is offering 2 1sts to get him, then sure I throw in the 3rd rounder.
I seriously thought of this same thing but from Philly's angle, that was odd to me for them to move back right now.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As outlined in the NE thread, NE has plenty of needs. So if they don't get in position to take a QB, then someone worthwhile will fall to them. That might also mean they then trade out of 15 if some other team is in love with someone still on the board.
There could be 5 QB, 3 OL, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 CB off the board when they call the Patriots to pick. They could get the top DLineman or pass rusher or first LB off the board. Essentially, they could find themselves in a situation they haven't been in in a long time.
I was feeling really good about their down year and the number 12 pick because i think they are that close
As someone said in here, if they miss on this pick they are cooked
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Shawnky
Footballguy
How so? If they want Pitts, Chase, Waddle or Smith then they have a chance at all of them.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I guess they have about 8 or 9 non-QBs they like a lot.
I view it as more of a gamble for the team moving up
You can based on probability. By your argument they could trade 20 first round picks and it's still a good pick if the person is good.
I disagree with that.
Probability says that the chances of getting a difference maker with 3 first round picks is greater than the one at number 3
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Not really. They were probably targetting someone like Chase or Sewell at pick 3 anyways. They just got a free 1st and 3rd to take the same guy.
What's so great about that division?
Seattle - beatable
Rams - very beatable
Cardinals - beatable
All the teams are good but none of them are great
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I agree, must have a board they are confident in enough that they will easily get one of multiple guys they really want there. Figure 1-2-3 is a QB then perhaps they are thinking something like one of Pitts, Chase, or Sewell (or Waddle/Smith) will make them equally as happy?
20 is extreme. But I guess if the guy turns into Brady, and if the team said no to 19 first round picks, then sure.
If you think this team is good enough to win a championship with Jimmy next year, then the picks they gave up will be low 1sts anyways.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Perhaps.
I am assuming they had the eagles deal worked out in sort of a quasi 3 team deal prior to pulling the trigger with the 49ers
Yep they probably did. They probably wanted Chase or Sewell no matter what, and figured out a way to pick up a future 1st and still get their guy by moving back 3 spots.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I get that the prevailing wisdom is that rookie quarterbacks have to start day 1. But I'm a Packer fan, and am therefore more comfortable with the notion that a rookie QB can benefit from a year of learning, without that immediate pressure. The point being, there's no reason they have to trade Jimmy G.
I've been predicting QB goes 1-4 for weeks now but to me the gamble of moving back was what if someone like Fields fell to 6?Or just allowing yourself for any team to get super hyped up on a player and that had some risk to it moving back. But this makes me think both teams feel like they got a pretty good handle on how the top few picks are going to go.
Boston
Footballguy
Unfortunately because their QB is not worthy of starting for an SEC team if they don't upgrade that position it will not matter and you will be simply kicking the can down the road.
I don’t get Philly moving back. Especially behind Dallas and Giants? Maybe Howie getting too cute again.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's the problem with the trade imo. There isn't even a clear path as to which will be there.
Obviously the 1 isn't going anywhere. But they don't know who the 2 is right now. So they're saying it doesn't matter.
They would be really strong contenders in any division. But the Cardinals are getting better, the Rams just got a lot better (imo) and the Seahawks are still good. That division is brutal.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I was really saying that it's not as likely they're trading up for Fields as the other two.That's the problem with the trade imo. There isn't even a clear path as to which will be there.
Obviously the 1 isn't going anywhere. But they don't know who the 2 is right now. So they're saying it doesn't matter.
Because who is there at 6? Would surely be Chase/Pitts type pick. They probably realize we are a couple years away and getting one of those guys won't do much.
Apparently they were trying to move up to 3 to take Wilson but couldn't. Either way, they get a future 1st for if/when Hurts fails and they need capital to get a future franchise qb.
Everyone is gawking at Miami's value, but have to think getting a 1st from moving from 6 to 12 is just as good. (They also moved up from a 5th to a 4th)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That someone was me. lol
NorrisB
Footballguy
They dont have a lot of cap space, and getting someone like Waddle or Devonta Smith or even Slater at 12 will be fine. Great trade by the Eagles.
Foosball God
Foos
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
pretty sure Shanny knows who he wants there. It’s only a problem for the armchair GMs like us.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm just saying I have no idea which of the three they want and expect to be there. They can't have made the move with the intention of getting "their guy" when their guy could very easily end up in NY.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yes, so it depends if you think Chase is better than pick 12+1st rounder next year for a team with no cap space who won't be a contender for a couple years.
Yes. I don't think he does this deal without some kind of Jets intel. Or he values 2 guys very similarly.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well, they're clearly fine with at least two of the three. You're right though - which one, who knows?
-OZ-
Footballguy
Foosball God
Foos
Pitts is supposedly generational, not sure if I'd gamble on that but I'm not an NFL GM either.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Right.
They obviously know more than we do (although the GMs are often wrong). I just never like these deals before they really know who is there. I'd be fine with getting the 2 now because we know who is going 1.
Didn't the jets make a similar deal in the draft for darnold? That went swimmingly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I assume so, since he made the deal. I think Shanny looked at all 3 closely & decided that any of the 3 fit what he wants to do. Otherwise he wouldn’t have made the deal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not like the Jets had a powerhouse offense that was 1 QB away, so IMO the jury’s still out on Darnold.
but point taken.
Exactly. So good trade for Philly if they're not a contender, to take 12+1st rounder over pitts.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I can’t remember an offseason with this much draft movement in a long while. Crazy.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Pitts may generational, but teams don't move mountains to draft a TE. The only TE selected in the Top 5 in the SB era was Riley Odoms by Denver in 1972 (with the 5th pick).
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