rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know what led up to this, but that's a heck of a sentence and scenario you've just painted a picture of.
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Agree or Disagree? Donald Trump Controls The Republican Party And Republicans Must Yield To Him (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
Another great post, GG.
I would just add the 2020 electoral map as a factor. Any new GOP candidate would effectively be starting from scratch...while Trump would only have to prove to party leaders he could incrementally carry 2-3 more Midwest/Southern swing states...which BTW just happen to be hardest hit by Biden's Covid and inflation policies.
The amount of oxygen Biden and the Dems continue to give Trump is truly amazing.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The answer to your question is trivial.
Prior to Trump being president, the events of Jan 6 would have been declared to be inconceivable.
Is it really so difficult to imagine Jan 6 "squared" in which one or two national guard, secret service and/or military leaders decide the time has come for america to be great again and align themselves the the donald to deal with the communist threat once and for all?
All the scenario requires is the will to execute and the charisma to recruit lieutenants.
Adolf Hitler's rise to power began in the newly established Weimar Republic in September 1919 when Hitler joined a political party run by WWI veterans known as the Deutsche Arbeiterpartei – DAP (German Workers' Party). Hitler rose to a place of prominence in the early years of the party. Being one of its best speakers, he was made leader after he threatened to leave otherwise.
In 1920, the DAP renamed itself to the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei – NSDAP (National Socialist German Workers' Party, commonly known as the Nazi Party). The party's new name was the result of Hitler himself as he wanted to attract German laborers. Despite the NSDAP being a right wing party it did have many anti-capitalist and anti-bourgeoise elements. Hitler initiated a purge of these elements and reaffirmed the Nazi Party's pro-business stance. By 1922 Hitler's control over the party was unchallenged. In 1923, Hitler and his supporters attempted a coup to remove the government via force. This seminal event was later called the Beer Hall Putsch. Hitler escaped however he would be subsequently arrested and put on trial. The trial proved to be a blessing in disguise for Hitler as it garnered him national fame. Hitler would be sentenced to five years but he would only serve eight months. It would be during this time where Hitler wrote Mein Kampf, which became the vade mecum of National Socialism. Once released Hitler switched tactics, he was going to seize power through legal and democratic means.
Hitler, armed with his newfound celebrity began furiously campaigning. The 1920s saw the Nazis run on a platform consisting of anti-communism, antisemitism and extreme nationalism. The party also spoke out against the ruling democratic government, the Treaty of Versailles, and desire to turn Germany into a world power. At this time most Germans were indifferent to Hitler's rhetoric as the German economy was beginning to recover in large part due to loans from the United States under the Dawes Plan.[1] The German political landscape would be shattered dramatically when the 1929 Wall Street Crash shriveled economic aid to Germany. The Great Depression brought the German economy to a halt and further polarized German politics. Hitler and the Nazis began to exploit the crisis and loudly criticized the ruling government. During this time the German Communist Party also began campaigning on the crisis and called for a revolution. Business leaders fearful of a communist takeover began supporting the Nazi party. In 1932 the Nazis held the largest number of seats in the Reichstag albeit short of an absolute majority. Seeing to capture the rising electoral success, Hitler ran for the presidency in 1932 however he was defeated by the incumbent Paul von Hindenburg.
1933 was a pivotal year for the Nazi party. Traditionally, the leader of the party who held the most seats in the Reichstag was appointed Chancellor. However President Paul von Hindenburg was hesitant to appoint Hitler as chancellor. Following several backroom negotiations between industrialists, Hindenburg's son, former chancellor Franz von Papen, and Hitler himself; Hindenburg acquiesced and on 30 January 1933, he formally appointed Adolf Hitler as chancellor. Although he was chancellor, Hitler was not yet an absolute dictator. The groundwork for the Nazi dictatorship was laid when the Reichstag was caught on fire in February. Believing the communists were behind the arson, Paul von Hindenburg passed the Reichstag Fire Decree which severely curtailed the liberties and rights of German citizens. Using the decree, Hitler began eliminating his political opponents. In Hitler's eyes the decree was insufficient and he proposed the Enabling Act of 1933. This law in effect gave the German government the power to override individual rights prescribed by the constitution. The law subsequently also gave the Chancellor (Hitler) to pass and enforce laws without parliamentary oversight. By April, Hitler now held dictatorial powers and ordered the construction of the first Nazi concentration camp in Dachau for communists and other political opponents. Adolf Hitler's rise to power was completed in August 1934 when Paul von Hindenburg died. Hitler merged the Chancellor with the Presidency and became the Führer.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Did someone just referencr Hitler?
Okay, if the door is open then you should do the left and their quest for Socialism/Communism. No, seriously. You're getting more and more of those people in your party every election, but fascism is your concern? Really?
If you look at what you led up to the Russian Revolution there are many parallels to what's happening now. Cancel culture, SJW, etc.... are all shades of what went on over 100 years ago.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/22/putin-rails-against-cancel-culture-transgender-rights-promises/
And let's be clear here: the American left isn't worried about fascism/totalitarianism. They're worried someone else is going to beat them to it.
Okay, if the door is open then you should do the left and their quest for Socialism/Communism. No, seriously. You're getting more and more of those people in your party every election, but fascism is your concern? Really?
If you look at what you led up to the Russian Revolution there are many parallels to what's happening now. Cancel culture, SJW, etc.... are all shades of what went on over 100 years ago.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/22/putin-rails-against-cancel-culture-transgender-rights-promises/
And let's be clear here: the American left isn't worried about fascism/totalitarianism. They're worried someone else is going to beat them to it.
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Again, super small sample size and purely a for what it's worth, but one of the guys I asked asked 5 of his Conservative friends the same question of who they'd want to see get the Republican nomination between Trump, DeSantis and Haley. I know all 5 and they're mainstream regular suburban dad type 40-50 year old long time Republicans.
One said "1000% DeSantis". The other four said "Either "DeSantis or Haley".
Again, you can't call a trend on 8 people but of my long time Republican friends, 8 of 8 said either DeSantis or Haley. With one raving each for DeSantis and Haley.
Purely for what it's worth.
But when I see @gordon gekko talk about Trump not being a shoe in and there being strong support for DeSantis and Haley, that's exactly the same thing I'm seeing in my real life friends.
The General
Footballguy
Biden, Susan Rice, radical leftists do not make someone pick Trump. There are going to be 15 candidates. If they select him we will get the answer to this poll - the Republican Party yields to Trump.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Indeed. We live in a society where "milktoast liberals" like Joe Biden are cast with the brush of "radical leftists", yet when a man implicitly supports insurrection apologists proclaim its no big deal. The seeds are there. Know your history.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Again, super small sample size and purely a for what it's worth, but one of the guys I asked asked 5 of his Conservative friends the same question of who they'd want to see get the Republican nomination between Trump, DeSantis and Haley. I know all 5 and they're mainstream regular suburban dad type 40-50 year old long time Republicans.
One said "1000% DeSantis". The other four said "Either "DeSantis or Haley".
Again, you can't call a trend on 8 people but of my long time Republican friends, 8 of 8 said either DeSantis or Haley. With one raving each for DeSantis and Haley.
Purely for what it's worth.
But when I see @gordon gekko talk about Trump not being a shoe in and there being strong support for DeSantis and Haley, that's exactly the same thing I'm seeing in my real life friends.
Thats nice...but from what we know of you and your friends...they are logical and reasonable. I would guess many of them also were not in support of him in 2016 through the primaries vs others.
But what we know...out there...there are enough people that still support him. That will still attend rallies...and still after everything for 4 years millions upon millions voted for him. And he is still a favorite to be the nominee in some books out there.
And...in regards to this question...he still has that strong of a pull with the party and leadership that so many still bend the knee It seems some of that is changing...and hopefully that continues for the better of the country.
And I don't think people realizing the control he has are low information, zealots, or radical leftists as GG has stated many times over.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
It's not free money. It is probably even a bad bet, but not because of his standing in the party. The election is along way off. He hasn't even announced he is running.
The reason he is not the GOP nominee in descending order of likelihood
1. Health
2. He is convicted in one of the ongoing investigations
3. He is just disinterested and decided not to run
4. He runs and someone else in the GOP wins.
4 is like PowerBall odds unlikely
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
As much as we want those people to run (and win) in the Primary, I cannot see them going against Trump. Would they risk their political future in a primary against Trump, when they know they could wait for the next one?Again, super small sample size and purely a for what it's worth, but one of the guys I asked asked 5 of his Conservative friends the same question of who they'd want to see get the Republican nomination between Trump, DeSantis and Haley. I know all 5 and they're mainstream regular suburban dad type 40-50 year old long time Republicans.
One said "1000% DeSantis". The other four said "Either "DeSantis or Haley".
Again, you can't call a trend on 8 people but of my long time Republican friends, 8 of 8 said either DeSantis or Haley. With one raving each for DeSantis and Haley.
Purely for what it's worth.
But when I see @gordon gekko talk about Trump not being a shoe in and there being strong support for DeSantis and Haley, that's exactly the same thing I'm seeing in my real life friends.
If they run against Trump and lose, they become tarnished like most of the 2016 candidates. If they run against Trump and win, Trump will take his support and run as an independant.
Thanks Joe -- yes, I'm definitely liberal, but I would vote for a return to "normalcy" for a candidate like Haley if she were to run/ win over someone like DeSantis. Especially if she can show she has the ability to temper the extreme partisan atmosphere we have right now. I don't know if there is such a person out there though. DeSantis is Trump light, and would continue to lead by division. Platform concerns for me would be womans right to choose and the environment as I've worked in that field for 35 years now --
Give me Larry Hogan (MD Gov) as well ---
And that is the real question I think.
I don't know their ages, but I think DeSantis and Haley are plenty young enough to wait for 2028 if they thought that was better. That is I'm sure the decision they're weighing.
The General
Footballguy
We know where Lindsey Graham voted on this poll: "Elections are about the future," Graham said. "If you want to be a Republican leader in the House or the Senate, you have to have a working relationship with President Donald Trump."
“'I’m not going to vote for anybody for leader of the Senate as a Republican, unless they can prove to me that they can advocate for an America First agenda and have a working relationship with President Trump because if you can't do that, you will fail”
“'I’m not going to vote for anybody for leader of the Senate as a Republican, unless they can prove to me that they can advocate for an America First agenda and have a working relationship with President Trump because if you can't do that, you will fail”
Is anyone saying Dems should ignore Trump? That would seem foolish to ignore the person who currently seems to be the favorite among oddsmakers.
I think people are saying there are other viable candidates than Trump.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
There are other candidates for sure, but I think it all comes down to whether or not Trump runs. And in that sense he does control the party (or at least the next primary).
I saw some of that in this article:
McConnell will run for another term as leader despite Trump's attacks
Graham was mentioned here.
It will be interesting to see if McConnell can survive being so out of favor with Trump.
You folks know a lot more than me. But barring some sort of health change, I'd be surprised if Trump didn't run.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I'll probably vote for the Republican candidate for President in 2024 if it's not Donald Trump.
I have positions that conservatives hold, and have positions that liberals hold. I vote for the candidate out of the choice presented to me. Not much else I can do.
I think if the Republican party moves on from Trump (their biggest mistake ever IMO), then I owe it to the GOP candidate to vote for them if they're better than the alternative and to give that a very objective look.
I'm still currently of the opinion that Donald Trump will be the candidate, he'll run unopposed, and a lot of this talk of other candidates is a ruse. I'll change my mind when the party rebukes him. I'm not holding my breath.
I have positions that conservatives hold, and have positions that liberals hold. I vote for the candidate out of the choice presented to me. Not much else I can do.
I think if the Republican party moves on from Trump (their biggest mistake ever IMO), then I owe it to the GOP candidate to vote for them if they're better than the alternative and to give that a very objective look.
I'm still currently of the opinion that Donald Trump will be the candidate, he'll run unopposed, and a lot of this talk of other candidates is a ruse. I'll change my mind when the party rebukes him. I'm not holding my breath.
zoonation
Footballguy
What is the appeal of Haley? I confess that I have no idea why people are so enamoured with her.Again, super small sample size and purely a for what it's worth, but one of the guys I asked asked 5 of his Conservative friends the same question of who they'd want to see get the Republican nomination between Trump, DeSantis and Haley. I know all 5 and they're mainstream regular suburban dad type 40-50 year old long time Republicans.
One said "1000% DeSantis". The other four said "Either "DeSantis or Haley".
Again, you can't call a trend on 8 people but of my long time Republican friends, 8 of 8 said either DeSantis or Haley. With one raving each for DeSantis and Haley.
Purely for what it's worth.
But when I see @gordon gekko talk about Trump not being a shoe in and there being strong support for DeSantis and Haley, that's exactly the same thing I'm seeing in my real life friends.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Indeed. This may not be the thread for it but I'm curious about what our non-Trumper board conservatives want from a Republican president. What policies would they want him/her to champion?
dkp993
Footballguy
This to me is a massive factor that not being discussed.
While I have no doubt the informal poll you took with your friends is likely true for the majority of republicans, what’s also likely true is those same people vote for Trump if he’s the nominee. I’m wholly unconvinced that DeSantis or Haley have the political will to try to fight against the convicted 30% that will follow Trump anywhere. You’re entering the fight knowing you have lost that huge chunk of the votes right off the bat. Why do that when you can wait 4 more years knowing that you don’t have that massive obstacle in your way any longer.
Yes. I think that's the calculation they're thinking about.
FWIW, my conservative friends are fascinated with our forum here. I share clips every once in a while.
One of them asked my yesterday: "Ask your message board what do they think would be the result of the election if Trump dropped out and fully endorsed DeSantis?"
dkp993
Footballguy
Unless a transformative candidate comes out of left field for the Dems like Obama did in ‘08 he wins pretty easily vs. the known D candidates today.
That was my take too. I don't think he'd ever do it, but if Trump were to fully endorse DeSantis, that would be tough to beat.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
We're two years away and too much can happen in the interim. But DeSantis would be a strong candidate. The Democrats have demographic trends on their side.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Does the bolded refer to the GOP primary election, or are we just assuming DeSantis would cruise there and the bolded refers to the general election?
I usually preach that "it's early, 2+ years is an eternity, etc.", but I think DeSantis cruises in the primary if Trump stood behind him. The general is trickier, in that it's nearly 3 years away and a lot can happen, including the unlikely possibility that the Dems nominate someone who's actually likeable.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Agreed...I think it would be a pretty easy victory (barring something in his closet that would really hurt him...but how bad would it have to be given what all skeletons Trump had and still had the support he did).
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
You misunderstood my post. I was saying current odd payoffs are very good for Trump's two most likely opponents. Those here who are convinced that Trump won't run for any reason could bet on them instead.
I don't see anyone laughing at the thought Trump is the front runner to get the nomination. The odds show that's a fact. I think I see folks saying it's not necessarily a lock and DeSantis and Haley are viable.
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The General
Footballguy
DeSantis will be required to spend 20% of every speech talking about the rigged 2020 election to lock this down
But seriously anyone Trump were to back immediately becomes the favorite to win the Republican nom. The trick would be how much that candidate would want to align with Don.
The big thing there is aligning with Trump as being endorsed by him is light years away from aligning with Trump in something like being his Vice President.
Obviously being endorsed carries way less restrictions. Would be fascinating. That would be nightmare scenario for Democrats I think.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
There were posters laughing about why we were talking about Trump when he hasn't even announced yet. I was just pointing out he is currently the heavy favorite and if they didn't think he was getting it there was money to be made betting on his opponents.
The General
Footballguy
Don will not back another candidate unless they go all in on rigged election unless he loses all support which seems impossible (and also means he isn't useful to a Desantis, Haley, Cruz, etc).
Nugget
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
I don't think he cruises with Trump actively supporting him. If Trump just faded and let DeSantis be, he'd have a much easier time. I suspect a lot of those that voted for Biden because of Trump would go back to voting third party. I know I would. DeSantis as President doesn't bother me knowing his process and his approach. Little meaningful would get done and it would be a return to gridlock in DC. I'm ok with that.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I think they are viable...not sure anyone who has said otherwise. However...if Trump runs...do they remain that viable?
sho nuff
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
It's seems to be a very American thing to want a gridlocked government instead of one that can enact the policies that voters elected them to enact.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Yes...if Trump runs. And even if he doesn't...he will still have great pull as to which of them would win. If they both run...do you think the one who gets Trump's support would be the clear favorite in the GOP?
These are not mutually exclusive things. They are viable candidates "if Trump does not run". If he runs...do you think they have a chance?
sho nuff
Footballguy
That statement does not contradict what I am saying...and in its context does not even address their viability as candidates.
I've repeatedly said I think Trump will run in 2024.
You said nobody was saying there weren't viable candidates outside of Trump.
I gave you two easy examples off the top of my head of people saying anyone who didn't bow the knee to Trump was out of the party.
If you don't accept that, we'll just have to disagree and move on.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
The two bolded sentences are very different things. The posts you quoted were people referencing refusals to say the election was stolen. They weren't referencing potential candidates for 2024 in any way.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I think we are talking past each other here Joe.
But they are viable if he is not running.
They are viable because one of them (if he is not running) will get his endorsement making them viable.
If he is running...I don't think they are as viable if they go against him. As in...say he lost the election...run against his ideas and his presidency. They need him is the point that they will have to continue to bend the knee. I don't think opposing him, his ideas and platform and challenging him on the election is a winning strategy among the base of GOP voters.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's sort of a progressive bias in looking at things. That governance should actively be doing something, enacting some policy. But voters aren't necessarily voting to enact policies. They could be voting because they sort of have to in order to keep people who don't currently hold office from altering the status quo too much. There are lots of us that think things are pretty good as is. Therefore, when voters vote, there's a whole host of concerns. I'd venture that very few Americans want ambitious policies towards certain issues. Especially, it seems, the progressive cockamamie that keeps seeming to take center stage in the Democratic Party and the nativist economic interventions that the Republicans seem fond of these days (getting into trade wars, raising tariffs, etc.)
Hence votes for gridlock.
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