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Ask a guy who gambles on stuff about gambling on stuff (1 Viewer)

have  you ever bet on whether someone else would bet on something that right there is like your mind just blew up take that to the bank brohan 

 
SWC said:
have  you ever bet on whether someone else would bet on something that right there is like your mind just blew up take that to the bank brohan 
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My good broski we are about to get to do such a thing on Al Michaels' games.

 
SWC said:
have  you ever bet on whether someone else would bet on something that right there is like your mind just blew up take that to the bank brohan 
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Yes but I usually lose because I say he won't and he does plus he ends up losing his bet too.

 
The latest podcast of "Bet The Process" goes through a lot of gambling myths from an +EV/advantage player's perspective. It's a sort-of response to a Bill Simmons podcast about gambling in Vegas that's pretty rife with magical thinking. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The latest podcast of "Bet The Process" goes through a lot of gambling myths from an +EV/advantage player's perspective. It's a sort-of response to a Bill Simmons podcast about gambling in Vegas that's pretty rife with magical thinking. 
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I enjoyed the first half hour of that pod, but only because Chang wasn't afraid to call Simmons a dumba$$ time after time.

 
lumpy19 said:
It's never okay, hedging is for dumb people who don't understand math.
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My little brother is a total f up. He is 40 years old, has no money, lives in Mexico, and somehow gets by with no job. (I’m actually a bit envious...)

He “found” some money and made a few parlay bets on the Falcons/NE super bowl. If the Falcons had won, and Matt Ryan was MVP, he would have won $20K. 

He also could make bets during the game. When NE was down 25, he could have gotten 13-1 on NE winning. I texted him and said, “Now would be a good time to throw $2K on a NE win.” His response was, “I’m 100 percent certain Atlanta is going to win this game.”

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Who do you like for the Heisman this year?

Superbowl?

NCAAF Champ?

World Chess Boxing Championships?

What is the best futures bet out there right now?

What was the dumbest bet you made (not in hindsight, but you actually knew was terrible when you made it)?

What was your biggest futures win and on who?
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For a price I'll take AJ Dillon from BC to win the Heisman as i think BC can win 8,9 maybe 10 games. Their OL has over 125 combined starts and I can see Dillon having a punchers chance of getting 2k yards

To win the NCAAF i like ND for a price as well. They open up vs Mich, have  9 starters returning on D and their toughest road games look to be @ VTech and @USC

I think you should be able to get both for 25-1 or more.  Neither is sexy but I think both have value and upside. 

 
elguapo07 said:
For a price I'll take AJ Dillon from BC to win the Heisman as i think BC can win 8,9 maybe 10 games. Their OL has over 125 combined starts and I can see Dillon having a punchers chance of getting 2k yards

To win the NCAAF i like ND for a price as well. They open up vs Mich, have  9 starters returning on D and their toughest road games look to be @ VTech and @USC

I think you should be able to get both for 25-1 or more.  Neither is sexy but I think both have value and upside. 
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What year is aj dillon?  I remember seeing him last year and assumed he would be in the draft.  Was he just a freshman last year?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The latest podcast of "Bet The Process" goes through a lot of gambling myths from an +EV/advantage player's perspective. It's a sort-of response to a Bill Simmons podcast about gambling in Vegas that's pretty rife with magical thinking. 
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They were talking about the bovada sharps vs square lines (or whatever).  I see the bovada lines thrown around to n he nba thread.  Are those usually the square lines?

 
Long Ball Larry said:
They were talking about the bovada sharps vs square lines (or whatever).  I see the bovada lines thrown around to n he nba thread.  Are those usually the square lines?
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Yeah, Bovada's very square. Any sort of solid player gets limited immediately there, books have different lengths of leashes, but Bovada is probably shortest.

That said, "square" means that the Warriors might be -9 -120 instead of -9 -110 everywhere else. It's not enough of a difference to make it profitable to just bet the other side of the overly juiced lines.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Yeah, Bovada's very square. Any sort of solid player gets limited immediately there, books have different lengths of leashes, but Bovada is probably shortest.

That said, "square" means that the Warriors might be -9 -120 instead of -9 -110 everywhere else. It's not enough of a difference to make it profitable to just bet the other side of the overly juiced lines.
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 But they were suggesting that bovada keeps a separate set of sharps lines, which I asssume are closer to reality (to whatever extent they can be).  Are they freely available somewhere?  I would like to see those when trying to evaluate upcoming events.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
 But they were suggesting that bovada keeps a separate set of sharps lines, which I asssume are closer to reality (to whatever extent they can be).  Are they freely available somewhere?  I would like to see those when trying to evaluate upcoming events.
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Bovada does deal two sets of lines. You can see the more square version on their site or an odds tracking site like sbrodds. I'm not sure if there's any way to see the sharper lines short of signing up and winning a few bets. 

 
Long Ball Larry said:
 But they were suggesting that bovada keeps a separate set of sharps lines, which I asssume are closer to reality (to whatever extent they can be).  Are they freely available somewhere?  I would like to see those when trying to evaluate upcoming events.
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I’ll sell you my account then you can login and see them whenever you like

 
Is there a reputable online book that accepts not just futures but specific matchup futures? For instance Patriots over Bucs in the SuperBowl? Or even long shots like Bears over Browns?

 
BoltBacker said:
Is there a reputable online book that accepts not just futures but specific matchup futures? For instance Patriots over Bucs in the SuperBowl? Or even long shots like Bears over Browns?
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5 Dimes and Sportsbook.Ag both have this, well at least matchups, not specific winner over a loser though as far as I can tell 

 
@Good Posting Judge

So I am in a pool that picks on college football games.  All teams are available and you can bet on either the point spread or the total.  Any insight into how you would play this?  Any favorite people to follow in regards to college football?  Thanks!

 
Skinny said:
@Good Posting Judge

So I am in a pool that picks on college football games.  All teams are available and you can bet on either the point spread or the total.  Any insight into how you would play this?  Any favorite people to follow in regards to college football?  Thanks!
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Are the lines dynamic or are they stale lines?  So do they post lines on let’s say Wednesday and never change them, or do they update through the week

 because if they’re set it and forget it you can probably wait till game day and then compare your line be the closing line

example:  you have Michigan at -10 and it’s now moved to -13 at the major books, grab Michigan 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Are the lines dynamic or are they stale lines?  So do they post lines on let’s say Wednesday and never change them, or do they update through the week

 because if they’re set it and forget it you can probably wait till game day and then compare your line be the closing line

example:  you have Michigan at -10 and it’s now moved to -13 at the major books, grab Michigan 
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Yeah, thats what i would do if lines are stale. Keep in mind that not all points are created equal: a move from -10 to -13 is a bigger deal if the spread is 50 than if its 80.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Are the lines dynamic or are they stale lines?  So do they post lines on let’s say Wednesday and never change them, or do they update through the week

 because if they’re set it and forget it you can probably wait till game day and then compare your line be the closing line

example:  you have Michigan at -10 and it’s now moved to -13 at the major books, grab Michigan 
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Excellent point that I should have absolutely highlighted.  The lines for the picks are the lines as of kickoff.  You can place your bets anytime, but the final line will be the line at kickoff. So I try to wait until the day of to make my selections.  To your question, they are dynamic and update through the week.

Also should highlight the need to pick 4 bets each week.  Thanks!

 
A new casino has recently opened near me and they have a ton of those new-fangled 5 reel slots like this  5 reels

These are a complete and total scam, right? I do see some people winning, but how do you know which one to choose? The casino is not advertising payout percentages on these. Also they are the brand new ones where they can switch out the game just by changing the software. I would imagine they are all linked electronically. 

Does anyone know how to pick a game that will give me the best chance to win? To be honest I just want to make/lose a few dollars and significantly bump up my casino promotion points. 

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
A new casino has recently opened near me and they have a ton of those new-fangled 5 reel slots like this  5 reels

These are a complete and total scam, right? I do see some people winning, but how do you know which one to choose? The casino is not advertising payout percentages on these. Also they are the brand new ones where they can switch out the game just by changing the software. I would imagine they are all linked electronically. 

Does anyone know how to pick a game that will give me the best chance to win? To be honest I just want to make/lose a few dollars and significantly bump up my casino promotion points. 
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Similar to a one night stand...pull and pray

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
A new casino has recently opened near me and they have a ton of those new-fangled 5 reel slots like this  5 reels

These are a complete and total scam, right? I do see some people winning, but how do you know which one to choose? The casino is not advertising payout percentages on these. Also they are the brand new ones where they can switch out the game just by changing the software. I would imagine they are all linked electronically. 

Does anyone know how to pick a game that will give me the best chance to win? To be honest I just want to make/lose a few dollars and significantly bump up my casino promotion points. 
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Aren't all slots a scam?

I'd also say that w/r/t to casino points, the juice isn't worth the squeeze. My advice is to learn to play poker, because people in casinos who play there are typically terrible at that. Better to get to be a gladiator than just go straight to the gallows imo.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
To 3-bet preflop and bet every street, he must have had something good. Making a big bet on the end as a bluff to blow Mike off the pot would make sense for maybe a less sophisticated player, but you'd think he'd risk less if he thought Mike had air.

Two other things about that movie:

1) who says no to Petra, geez.

2) The math is all wrong on the hand that Mike plays with Johnny Chan, I think he says they're playing 300/600 (which is a massive game), and he sits down with 6k. Plays tight for an hour, so assume he has about that when he has the big hand. Mike has the button, Johnny Chan raises, and throws 5 chips out. So that's probably to 2500, which is standard. For Mike to re-raise right there, it's probably going to be his entire stack of ~6000, and Chan would be priced in to call. Much less a 5-bet that Chan eventually folds to, they'd have to be playing super deep for that to happen.
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When I was in my late teens/early twenties my family had a hook-up at the El Cortez downtown. Used to get free rooms.  I remember stumbling in to Binions and just standing there watching Stu Ungar verbally tear up the table during the WSOP. Included Doyle Brunson (he just laughed). Would have loved to see him tear into Hellmuth. Dude was relentless.  Saw Johnny Chan in his run there as well. Great memories.

 
Judge Smails said:
When I was in my late teens/early twenties my family had a hook-up at the El Cortez downtown. Used to get free rooms.  I remember stumbling in to Binions and just standing there watching Stu Ungar verbally tear up the table during the WSOP. Included Doyle Brunson (he just laughed). Would have loved to see him tear into Hellmuth. Dude was relentless.  Saw Johnny Chan in his run there as well. Great memories.
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He was an incredible character. I think that his level of aggression back then seemed insane, but he was likely decades ahead of his time.

There's a really good bio of him, forget what it was called.

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
A new casino has recently opened near me and.....

These are a complete and total scam, right?
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Yes.

But if you are just viewing it as paying for entertainment, then go nuts. I've never gone to the movies and expected to come home with more money than before the couple of hours of entertainment the movie theater provided. That's why I think sports betting is so much fun. Just choose a dog, bet the moneyline and over/under parlay and suddenly you have a rooting interest for three hours. MAYBE you hit, but you are guaranteed to make a completely uninteresting game entertaining at least for a half even if it's a blowout. Most new movies that come out aren't entertaining for an hour and a half and you have no chance of winning.

BTW, I actually love the movies and probably go to a theater way too often(2-4 times a month). But going to the movies is a WAY bigger gamble imo as I'm often only entertained for 20-40 minutes of a movie I've sat through for 80-100 minutes. 

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
My advice is to learn to play poker, because people in casinos who play there are typically terrible at that. Better to get to be a gladiator than just go straight to the gallows imo.
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What are your thoughts on baccarat?

 
A few years ago some guy at 2+2 saw betting the under on nhl matches where there was a clear favorite (i forgot what the spread was but there was a quant value) meant free money for a while. Something about good teams tended to go hyper defensive and odd makers were slow picking up on it. Did anyone here ever cash in that one?

 
The PA Cash 5 payout for the jackpot tomorrow (probability of winning is about 1/960,000) is projected to be $1,600,000. Given a tax rate of about 36%, plus all of the lesser prizes, the EV for a $1 ticket is above $1.20, given that there is just one winner. A split pot would bring the EV under a buck (not good) but not by a lot, and also it would be a life-changing payday nonetheless. I plan to buy $20 worth of tickets (I never play the lottery except in situations like this) and I am debating buying a lot more, like maybe hundreds of tickets. What’s your take?

 
pecorino said:
The PA Cash 5 payout for the jackpot tomorrow (probability of winning is about 1/960,000) is projected to be $1,600,000. Given a tax rate of about 36%, plus all of the lesser prizes, the EV for a $1 ticket is above $1.20, given that there is just one winner. A split pot would bring the EV under a buck (not good) but not by a lot, and also it would be a life-changing payday nonetheless. I plan to buy $20 worth of tickets (I never play the lottery except in situations like this) and I am debating buying a lot more, like maybe hundreds of tickets. What’s your take?
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Sounds like an even bet, which is good compared to most bets.

 
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