Brandon Marshall to be traded to Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

[hxperson]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

 

[Tau837]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???Starting in week 10, Ricky had 20, 22, 27, 18, 28, 19, 10, and 12 carries. Let's not pretend they stopped running just because Ronnie got hurt.ETA--Miami rushed 267 times in the first 8 games (33.3 rush/game). Miami rushed 242 times in the last 8 games. Even if you use the 2nd half number of 242 and double that for the year at "only" 484 rushes, that still would have been good for 6th last year in the NFL in rushing attempts. So let's not pretend they abandoned the run game for the 2nd half of the year.

 

[Tau837]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???

If you have a point to make, make it.I'm not taking a side here. I haven't provided any projections on Marshall, and I'm not saying anyone is wrong in their positions in this debate. I'm simply offering some counterpoints that seem reasonable to me.

 

[Christo]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???Starting in week 10, Ricky had 20, 22, 27, 18, 28, 19, 10, and 12 carries. Let's not pretend they stopped running just because Ronnie got hurt.

It's silly to keep arguing this point. No one picks up a $50 million WR just to keep the same run-pass ratio.

 

[SSOG]

IMO you have to consider the timing of the week 17 meltdown. Pro-bowls were anounced the very day before. I haven't read this anywhere so it's truly my speculation, but the coaching staff told Marshall that he would get what ever it was he wanted (an exit from the team or a new contract) if he kept his nose clean and hit some performance level - perhaps making the pro-bowl. The very day after that goal is reached, Marshall pulls a muscle in practice and calls himself out. Being in a playoff run, if I were a coach I'd expect Marshall to work through it for the good of the team, which he was unwilling to do. That escalated quickly, and the results are a week 17 benching.If that's the case, then you know that as soon as you give Marshall what he wants and you have no incentives you can hang over him, all bets are off on future behaviors.

If that's the case, then yeah... but I haven't heard the faintest whiff of the slightest whisper of the thinnest rumor from so much as a friend's uncle's 3rd cousin that anything like that is the case. You know what they say- when you speculate, you make a spec of you and some guy named Lation.You're speculating that McDaniels made a deal telling Marshall if he kept his nose clean, he'd get traded... but what Marshall did was so far above and beyond "keeping his nose clean" it's borderline comical. Plenty of players "keep their nose clean" without giving national interviews to the NFL network where they rave about how much they love their team. Plenty of players "keep their nose clean" without faking spontaneous outpourings of affection during a press conference. I firmly believe that, during the middle of the season, Brandon Marshall was absolutely excited about being a Bronco. Then the wins dried up and McDaniels suspected that Marshall was trying to shirk practice (and remember, it was a suspicion and not a proven fact), and now suddenly Marshall is in Miami.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???

If you have a point to make, make it.I'm not taking a side here. I haven't provided any projections on Marshall, and I'm not saying anyone is wrong in their positions in this debate. I'm simply offering some counterpoints that seem reasonable to me.

First, I added some more to my post above. Second, I thought the point was quite clear. You tried to provide an analysis as to why they passed more due to Ronnie's injury and completely ignored that he wasn't even the team's leading rusher. 241 carries by Ricky is a huge workload and he picked up where Ronnie left off after his injury. In other words, how can you discuss how losing Ronnie impacted their offensive gameplan without discussing what his replacement did. As you can see above, their 2nd half rushing #'s were still tremendous and would put them at the top of the league in terms of attempts. They didn't all of a sudden undergo a complete offensive turnaround in philosophy. They simply passed more and there's lots of reasons that could be.Could Miami's passing attempts go down? Sure. Could Miami continue their run-heavy philosophy despite spending $50 million on an elite WR? Sure. Could Marshall only manage 4-5 more receptions than Davone Bess? Sure. Is all of that likely to happen? Nah, I don't think so.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm not going to comment on MOP's projections one way or the other, but this notion that Marshall's yards per reception average cannot go up substantially is off base IMO. I'm not saying it will go up substantially, but it certainly could.

He is going to a new team that runs a different offense. That offense could decide to have Marshall run more medium and deep routes and fewer WR screens and short routes. Again, I'm not saying they will do that, but they could do that. And he goes from Orton to Henne... I think most would agree that Henne can throw medium and deep routes better than Orton.

I haven't done any projections, but I certainly think it's possible that Marshall will get fewer receptions for more yards in Miami in comparison to what he did in Denver.

Bingo!!!If Ted Ginn could have done this consistently, he would still be a Miami Dolphin. We don't run a lot of WR screens, we do throw them from time to time but that was more predecated that we couldn't throw it down the field. The best thing for this Wildcat we run is to also be able to stretch the field. I really don' think we got Marshall to run 6 and 8 yd routes. I could be wrong and when I am please bump this thread but Miami is trying to get some vertical game in their offense.

Can anyone post the last Miami WR to catch 80+ balls?

Looked it up...in 2005 Chambers caught 82 balls. and that was the only time he did it so I'm honestly not sure Miami has had more than one or two 80 catch seasons from a WR in the last decade.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

GM, I just ant to tell you even outside of a PM that I repsect your opinion a lot and I like how you and Doowain have held my feet to the fire a bit here, it's good since I have to doublecheck my work and make sure I'm not off in left field. 1. Marshall might be overvalued now...he also could be undervalued. Plug in 100 recpetion but move him up to 13-14 ypc and double digit Tds, most will think he is undervalued. But I tend to think over is the better choice. People are going to grab him, too many catches the last 3 years. 2. Miami passed it a lot less in 2008. They had a very NFL capable QB in Chad Pennington, it was a great year. Penny couldn't throw it down field though and that is why Henne was drafted, big arm. Miami went form 11-5 to 7-9, played a very tough schedule and even with a young QB under center they had to throw it a lot more to try and stay in games. I think they will be much better this year and probably not play form behind all the time. Sporano is a conservative coach, no doubt about it and if they get a lead going into the 4th, what are the odds Henne is going to dial up a big pass play to Marshall? I could see Marshall post numbers like 3/60, 4/70 on weeks where Miami wins. I also can see him ripping off 10/135/2Tds in a shootout some weeks. 3. It's April my friend, if I mis spoke with the 80 reception cap, again you have corrected me and I listen and read what you and Doowain are posting but I really doubt you see too many places that project Marshall at 100 recptions this year. I don't deny him his yds and Tds, I just think he will do it with a few less catches. And the difference in 100 and 80 is 20 points in PPR...that's about 1 a week. Love debating with you guys, you both are bringing it, that's what makes this place great.

 

[T.Rex]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.

2009 stats

Denver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)

NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)

Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)

Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)

Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)

You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following

--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check

--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check

--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check

--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check

--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check

--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check

--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - check

Sorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

GM, I just ant to tell you even outside of a PM that I repsect your opinion a lot and I like how you and Doowain have held my feet to the fire a bit here, it's good since I have to doublecheck my work and make sure I'm not off in left field. 1. Marshall might be overvalued now...he also could be undervalued. Plug in 100 recpetion but move him up to 13-14 ypc and double digit Tds, most will think he is undervalued. But I tend to think over is the better choice. People are going to grab him, too many catches the last 3 years.

2. Miami passed it a lot less in 2008. They had a very NFL capable QB in Chad Pennington, it was a great year. Penny couldn't throw it down field though and that is why Henne was drafted, big arm. Miami went form 11-5 to 7-9, played a very tough schedule and even with a young QB under center they had to throw it a lot more to try and stay in games. I think they will be much better this year and probably not play form behind all the time. Sporano is a conservative coach, no doubt about it and if they get a lead going into the 4th, what are the odds Henne is going to dial up a big pass play to Marshall? I could see Marshall post numbers like 3/60, 4/70 on weeks where Miami wins. I also can see him ripping off 10/135/2Tds in a shootout some weeks.

3. It's April my friend, if I mis spoke with the 80 reception cap, again you have corrected me and I listen and read what you and Doowain are posting but I really doubt you see too many places that project Marshall at 100 recptions this year. I don't deny him his yds and Tds, I just think he will do it with a few less catches.

And the difference in 100 and 80 is 20 points in PPR...that's about 1 a week.

Love debating with you guys, you both are bringing it, that's what makes this place great.

LOL.... Yeah if it's 20 receptions for 0 yards..... Anyone that says Marshall will have 80 catches after 3 100 years is just fishing imo... and they make me laugh out loud....edit to add: REAL LOUD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

LOL.... Yeah if it's 20 receptions for 0 yards..... Anyone that says Marshall will have 80 catches after 3 100 years is just fishing imo... and they make me laugh out loud....edit to add: REAL LOUD

I think its equally hysterical that people are so confident that Marshall will eclipse 100 recptions for the 2nd...3rd...4th year in a row on a team that doesn't think pass first. If Marshall was suddenly on New Orleans, Indy, but it's Miami and we like to run the football. They spent $150 million on this OL and it wasn't just to protect the QB, they want ROI and that's one of the reasons I see them drafting Spiller or Best, they still need speed in the backfield. Just because a guy does something one year doesn't mean he will do it again. Go back and look at the top10 QB, RB, WR form year to year...they fluctuate with a few exceptions. If players just posted the same numbers every year, there wouldn't be much to discuss. Marshall going over 100 receptions to me seems like a lot...maybe I am a skewed Miami fan. They have built Miami to pound the ball, play strong defense, and work the clock. If Marshall can make the grabs that Ginn couldn't he will pay for himself but I'm not ready to start projecting 100+ receptions for him in Miami. No WR has ever caught 100 balls in Miami which includes the famous Marino/Duper, Marino/Clayton combinations and even when one of them had a cocaine off year the other didn't post ungodly numbers. I really think the success of these new offenses the past 3-5 years has skewed some of the thinking out here.

 

[SSOG]

Can anyone post the last Miami WR to catch 80+ balls?

Can anyone post the last Miami WR to make $10mil a year?When Terrell Owens went to Philly, a lot of people said the exact same thing you're saying now. "When was the last time Philly had a 1,000 yard receiver?" (fwiw, they were asking it again regarding Desean Jackson last offseason, too). When Moss went to New England, people were asking "when was the last time Tom Brady locked on to a receiver instead of spreading it around?". In both cases, those questions look LUDICROUS in hindsight. How Todd Pinkston and James Thrash performed in Philly had no bearing on how Terrell Owens performed, because neither WR is even in the same league as Terrell Owens. How David Givens and Deion Branch performed in New England had no bearing on how Randy Moss performed, because neither WR is even in the same league as Randy Moss. Likewise, how Bess, Camarillo, Ginn, Chambers, or Marty Booker performed in recent years in Miami isn't the teensiest, tiniest, most microscopic bit relevant to how Brandon Marshall will perform in Miami.Saying Marshall might not catch a lot of balls in Miami because Greg Camarillo never topped 80 receptions is akin to saying that Terrell Owens might not get a lot of yards in Philly because Todd Pinkston never topped 800 receiving yards.

 

[T.Rex]

LOL.... Yeah if it's 20 receptions for 0 yards..... Anyone that says Marshall will have 80 catches after 3 100 years is just fishing imo... and they make me laugh out loud....

edit to add: REAL LOUD

I think its equally hysterical that people are so confident that Marshall will eclipse 100 recptions for the 2nd...3rd...4th year in a row on a team that doesn't think pass first. If Marshall was suddenly on New Orleans, Indy, but it's Miami and we like to run the football. They spent $150 million on this OL and it wasn't just to protect the QB, they want ROI and that's one of the reasons I see them drafting Spiller or Best, they still need speed in the backfield. Just because a guy does something one year doesn't mean he will do it again.

I really think the success of these new offenses the past 3-5 years has skewed some of the thinking out here.

That would a good great if he's only done it 1 year.. He's done it 3 years in a row without ever playing a full 16 games. He broke the most receptions in a game record with Kyle Orton as his QB. Kyle ####### Orton..... Not Brees, Manning but Orton. I think 110 is a fair prediction. I doubt you will see many guys putting it less than the 90's excluding yourself.

 

[az_prof]

IMO you have to consider the timing of the week 17 meltdown. Pro-bowls were anounced the very day before. I haven't read this anywhere so it's truly my speculation, but the coaching staff told Marshall that he would get what ever it was he wanted (an exit from the team or a new contract) if he kept his nose clean and hit some performance level - perhaps making the pro-bowl. The very day after that goal is reached, Marshall pulls a muscle in practice and calls himself out. Being in a playoff run, if I were a coach I'd expect Marshall to work through it for the good of the team, which he was unwilling to do. That escalated quickly, and the results are a week 17 benching.If that's the case, then you know that as soon as you give Marshall what he wants and you have no incentives you can hang over him, all bets are off on future behaviors.

If that's the case, then yeah... but I haven't heard the faintest whiff of the slightest whisper of the thinnest rumor from so much as a friend's uncle's 3rd cousin that anything like that is the case. You know what they say- when you speculate, you make a spec of you and some guy named Lation.You're speculating that McDaniels made a deal telling Marshall if he kept his nose clean, he'd get traded... but what Marshall did was so far above and beyond "keeping his nose clean" it's borderline comical. Plenty of players "keep their nose clean" without giving national interviews to the NFL network where they rave about how much they love their team. Plenty of players "keep their nose clean" without faking spontaneous outpourings of affection during a press conference. I firmly believe that, during the middle of the season, Brandon Marshall was absolutely excited about being a Bronco. Then the wins dried up and McDaniels suspected that Marshall was trying to shirk practice (and remember, it was a suspicion and not a proven fact), and now suddenly Marshall is in Miami.

As usual, SSOG is a voice of reason. Now I am waiting for him to crunch the passing numbers for Miami and Denver so I know how many receptions to project for Marshall next season.

 

[Tau837]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.2009 statsDenver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - checkSorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???

If you have a point to make, make it.I'm not taking a side here. I haven't provided any projections on Marshall, and I'm not saying anyone is wrong in their positions in this debate. I'm simply offering some counterpoints that seem reasonable to me.

First, I added some more to my post above. Second, I thought the point was quite clear. You tried to provide an analysis as to why they passed more due to Ronnie's injury and completely ignored that he wasn't even the team's leading rusher. 241 carries by Ricky is a huge workload and he picked up where Ronnie left off after his injury. In other words, how can you discuss how losing Ronnie impacted their offensive gameplan without discussing what his replacement did. As you can see above, their 2nd half rushing #'s were still tremendous and would put them at the top of the league in terms of attempts. They didn't all of a sudden undergo a complete offensive turnaround in philosophy. They simply passed more and there's lots of reasons that could be.Could Miami's passing attempts go down? Sure. Could Miami continue their run-heavy philosophy despite spending $50 million on an elite WR? Sure. Could Marshall only manage 4-5 more receptions than Davone Bess? Sure. Is all of that likely to happen? Nah, I don't think so.

I did not try to provide any kind of complete analysis. I simply provided facts that don't support your point of view. As for Ricky's carries, why don't you look at the team's RB carries in the first 8 game vs. the last 8 games...?Regardless, I don't intend to argue with you about it. I'll see you in the relevant Spotlight threads this preseason.

 

[gianmarco]

As for Ricky's carries, why don't you look at the team's RB carries in the first 8 game vs. the last 8 games...?

ETA--Miami rushed 267 times in the first 8 games (33.3 rush/game). Miami rushed 242 times in the last 8 games. Even if you use the 2nd half number of 242 and double that for the year at "only" 484 rushes, that still would have been good for 6th last year in the NFL in rushing attempts. So let's not pretend they abandoned the run game for the 2nd half of the year.

 

[SSOG]

That would a good great if he's only done it 1 year.. He's done it 3 years in a row without ever playing a full 16 games. He broke the most receptions in a game record with Kyle Orton as his QB. Kyle ####### Orton..... Not Brees, Manning but Orton. I think 110 is a fair prediction. I doubt you will see many guys putting it less than the 90's excluding yourself.

First off, Marshall played 16 games in '07... and it's not like he's been missing big stretches since then. He missed 1 game in '08, and 1 game in '09. Both missed games were suspensions related to his own stupidity.Second off, it's a lot easier to break the single-game receptions record with Kyle Orton at QB than it is with Peyton Manning at QB, because Peyton Manning would never target a single player 28 times in a game. It was ridiculous the kind of garbage Marshall was getting fed all game. His YPR was under 10 for the game. Jabar Gaffney could have broken the single-game reception record if the Broncos had just used him like that. That record was all about opportunity, plain and simple. Which isn't to say that Marshall isn't a phenomenal talent, it's just to say that there are lots of WRs who could have had 21 receptions if they'd just had 28 targets in a single game.

As usual, SSOG is a voice of reason. Now I am waiting for him to crunch the passing numbers for Miami and Denver so I know how many receptions to project for Marshall next season.

No need to crunch any numbers, this is a situation where we just fall back on my favorite NFL-related slogan: follow the money. Even in an uncapped season, resources are not limitless. If a team invests a disproportionate amount of resources into something, then they believe that thing is likely to play a disproportionate role in their upcoming season. The Dolphins didn't pay Marshall $10mil to be an 80-catch receiver. I'd project him for 90+.

 

[az_prof]

That would a good great if he's only done it 1 year.. He's done it 3 years in a row without ever playing a full 16 games. He broke the most receptions in a game record with Kyle Orton as his QB. Kyle ####### Orton..... Not Brees, Manning but Orton. I think 110 is a fair prediction. I doubt you will see many guys putting it less than the 90's excluding yourself.

First off, Marshall played 16 games in '07... and it's not like he's been missing big stretches since then. He missed 1 game in '08, and 1 game in '09. Both missed games were suspensions related to his own stupidity.Second off, it's a lot easier to break the single-game receptions record with Kyle Orton at QB than it is with Peyton Manning at QB, because Peyton Manning would never target a single player 28 times in a game. It was ridiculous the kind of garbage Marshall was getting fed all game. His YPR was under 10 for the game. Jabar Gaffney could have broken the single-game reception record if the Broncos had just used him like that. That record was all about opportunity, plain and simple. Which isn't to say that Marshall isn't a phenomenal talent, it's just to say that there are lots of WRs who could have had 21 receptions if they'd just had 28 targets in a single game.

As usual, SSOG is a voice of reason. Now I am waiting for him to crunch the passing numbers for Miami and Denver so I know how many receptions to project for Marshall next season.

No need to crunch any numbers, this is a situation where we just fall back on my favorite NFL-related slogan: follow the money. Even in an uncapped season, resources are not limitless. If a team invests a disproportionate amount of resources into something, then they believe that thing is likely to play a disproportionate role in their upcoming season. The Dolphins didn't pay Marshall $10mil to be an 80-catch receiver. I'd project him for 90+.

It's alot easier to say that any other WR could have broken that record than it is to do it. No one else has done it. First, you have to get open. Second, you have to make the catches. It isn't Marshall's fault that McFail loves the short pass and that Orton can't throw it down field. The fact that he did it with Orton is really pretty incredible.

 

[BRONG]

MOP got MOPPED.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

That would a good great if he's only done it 1 year.. He's done it 3 years in a row without ever playing a full 16 games. He broke the most receptions in a game record with Kyle Orton as his QB. Kyle ####### Orton..... Not Brees, Manning but Orton. I think 110 is a fair prediction. I doubt you will see many guys putting it less than the 90's excluding yourself.

First off, Marshall played 16 games in '07... and it's not like he's been missing big stretches since then. He missed 1 game in '08, and 1 game in '09. Both missed games were suspensions related to his own stupidity.Second off, it's a lot easier to break the single-game receptions record with Kyle Orton at QB than it is with Peyton Manning at QB, because Peyton Manning would never target a single player 28 times in a game. It was ridiculous the kind of garbage Marshall was getting fed all game. His YPR was under 10 for the game. Jabar Gaffney could have broken the single-game reception record if the Broncos had just used him like that. That record was all about opportunity, plain and simple. Which isn't to say that Marshall isn't a phenomenal talent, it's just to say that there are lots of WRs who could have had 21 receptions if they'd just had 28 targets in a single game.

As usual, SSOG is a voice of reason. Now I am waiting for him to crunch the passing numbers for Miami and Denver so I know how many receptions to project for Marshall next season.

No need to crunch any numbers, this is a situation where we just fall back on my favorite NFL-related slogan: follow the money. Even in an uncapped season, resources are not limitless. If a team invests a disproportionate amount of resources into something, then they believe that thing is likely to play a disproportionate role in their upcoming season. The Dolphins didn't pay Marshall $10mil to be an 80-catch receiver. I'd project him for 90+.

very weak.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP got MOPPED.

Man...that was just brong.

 

[SSOG]

It's alot easier to say that any other WR could have broken that record than it is to do it. No one else has done it. First, you have to get open. Second, you have to make the catches. It isn't Marshall's fault that McFail loves the short pass and that Orton can't throw it down field. The fact that he did it with Orton is really pretty incredible.

I remember immediately after Marshall broke the record I was posting (in the dynasty thread, iirc) that his game wasn't anywhere near as impressive as the reception total would indicate, but that there was no way to hold that against him, because he did absolutely everything that was asked of him that game. It's not a black mark against him that McDaniels called for so much garbage to Marshall, and I don't want it to come off like sour grapes or some sort of petty vendetta. I didn't want to make it seem like it was somehow a failing of Marshall's. I'm just saying that Marshall's 21 reception game wasn't one of the best WR games last year, but since he broke some arbitrary record, it's the game everyone remembers.

 

[The Goat]

ricky and ronnie gonna find even more room to run now

if they move ronnie lex hilliard is a nice sleeper this year

Shhhhhh.

 

[The Goat]

LOL.... Yeah if it's 20 receptions for 0 yards..... Anyone that says Marshall will have 80 catches after 3 100 years is just fishing imo... and they make me laugh out loud....edit to add: REAL LOUD

I think its equally hysterical that people are so confident that Marshall will eclipse 100 recptions for the 2nd...3rd...4th year in a row on a team that doesn't think pass first. If Marshall was suddenly on New Orleans, Indy, but it's Miami and we like to run the football. They spent $150 million on this OL and it wasn't just to protect the QB, they want ROI and that's one of the reasons I see them drafting Spiller or Best, they still need speed in the backfield. Just because a guy does something one year doesn't mean he will do it again. Go back and look at the top10 QB, RB, WR form year to year...they fluctuate with a few exceptions. If players just posted the same numbers every year, there wouldn't be much to discuss. Marshall going over 100 receptions to me seems like a lot...maybe I am a skewed Miami fan. They have built Miami to pound the ball, play strong defense, and work the clock. If Marshall can make the grabs that Ginn couldn't he will pay for himself but I'm not ready to start projecting 100+ receptions for him in Miami. No WR has ever caught 100 balls in Miami which includes the famous Marino/Duper, Marino/Clayton combinations and even when one of them had a cocaine off year the other didn't post ungodly numbers. I really think the success of these new offenses the past 3-5 years has skewed some of the thinking out here.

MOP, I think that the one thing you're overlooking here is that the Fins' D was pretty sad last year. If they can't shore up their safety position, they're gonna end up passing a lot more out of necessity. While I wouldn't EXPECT 100 receptions, it wouldn't shock me.

 

[meatwad1]

I don't know what some of you are smoking, but to look at what Miami did last year as a prognostication of what will happen this year is pretty foolish. They just got BRANDON MARSHALL.

Here is a news flash for all of the disbelievers...Brandon Marshall is a proven stud, a player whose immense skill has seen him through in multiple situations. Whether he catches 80, 90, or 100+ balls, how would you know that...there are many variables that play into an NFL season...we do know, though, that teams with super-stud top 5 wrs usually rely on those players to win them games. So barring injury, or some knuckleheaded incident he remains a probowl starter in his prime.

In a ppr, I really see him as one of the best wrs period. I would probably value AJ or Fitz ahead of him for sure, but I would say he is valued at a 11 - 14 range pick in ppr. Thankfully, there are many overthinking morons who will still pass on him and he will probably be sitting right there for the picking at the 2/3 turn as a gift for the lucky CJ/AD/RayRice/MJD owner.

In a perfect world, Marshall will have another training camp snafu or a minor nightclub scuffle leading up to the draft...that will push him into the 4th round where some lucky person, hopefully me, will snap him right up.

 

[Jason Bourne]

No need to crunch any numbers, this is a situation where we just fall back on my favorite NFL-related slogan: follow the money. Even in an uncapped season, resources are not limitless. If a team invests a disproportionate amount of resources into something, then they believe that thing is likely to play a disproportionate role in their upcoming season. The Dolphins didn't pay Marshall $10mil to be an 80-catch receiver. I'd project him for 90+.

This.Marshall is not a decoy. They will use him to balance the rushing attack. It would not shock me if they throw to him every time he is in single coverage. Stack the line and they are throwing. Drop in coverage and they are running. Now D's have a reason to drop in coverage.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

It's alot easier to say that any other WR could have broken that record than it is to do it. No one else has done it. First, you have to get open. Second, you have to make the catches. It isn't Marshall's fault that McFail loves the short pass and that Orton can't throw it down field. The fact that he did it with Orton is really pretty incredible.

I remember immediately after Marshall broke the record I was posting (in the dynasty thread, iirc) that his game wasn't anywhere near as impressive as the reception total would indicate, but that there was no way to hold that against him, because he did absolutely everything that was asked of him that game. It's not a black mark against him that McDaniels called for so much garbage to Marshall, and I don't want it to come off like sour grapes or some sort of petty vendetta. I didn't want to make it seem like it was somehow a failing of Marshall's. I'm just saying that Marshall's 21 reception game wasn't one of the best WR games last year, but since he broke some arbitrary record, it's the game everyone remembers.

Yeah getting 21 rec when the D knows where the ball is going is less than impressive. You just sound silly now.

this is getting comical. To bad his game didn't pass your eyeball test....lol

 

[travdogg]

It's alot easier to say that any other WR could have broken that record than it is to do it. No one else has done it. First, you have to get open. Second, you have to make the catches. It isn't Marshall's fault that McFail loves the short pass and that Orton can't throw it down field. The fact that he did it with Orton is really pretty incredible.

I remember immediately after Marshall broke the record I was posting (in the dynasty thread, iirc) that his game wasn't anywhere near as impressive as the reception total would indicate, but that there was no way to hold that against him, because he did absolutely everything that was asked of him that game. It's not a black mark against him that McDaniels called for so much garbage to Marshall, and I don't want it to come off like sour grapes or some sort of petty vendetta. I didn't want to make it seem like it was somehow a failing of Marshall's. I'm just saying that Marshall's 21 reception game wasn't one of the best WR games last year, but since he broke some arbitrary record, it's the game everyone remembers.

Yeah getting 21 rec when the D knows where the ball is going is less than impressive. You just sound silly now.

this is getting comical. To bad his game didn't pass your eyeball test....lol

Catches are the most overrated statsitic for a WR. Also, Indy really didn't care that Marshall was getting those catches, they were perfectly content to let Marshall gain 8 yards and have 30+ seconds come off the clock before Marshall gained another 8 yards. Yes, it was impressive that he managed 21 catches and no I don't think Gaffney could have done it, but it wasn't the all-time performance some seem to think it was just because it set some semi-meaningless record. Marshall had(at best) the 3rd best game a WR had that week.

 

[az_prof]

It's alot easier to say that any other WR could have broken that record than it is to do it. No one else has done it. First, you have to get open. Second, you have to make the catches. It isn't Marshall's fault that McFail loves the short pass and that Orton can't throw it down field. The fact that he did it with Orton is really pretty incredible.

I remember immediately after Marshall broke the record I was posting (in the dynasty thread, iirc) that his game wasn't anywhere near as impressive as the reception total would indicate, but that there was no way to hold that against him, because he did absolutely everything that was asked of him that game. It's not a black mark against him that McDaniels called for so much garbage to Marshall, and I don't want it to come off like sour grapes or some sort of petty vendetta. I didn't want to make it seem like it was somehow a failing of Marshall's. I'm just saying that Marshall's 21 reception game wasn't one of the best WR games last year, but since he broke some arbitrary record, it's the game everyone remembers.

Yeah getting 21 rec when the D knows where the ball is going is less than impressive. You just sound silly now.

this is getting comical. To bad his game didn't pass your eyeball test....lol

Catches are the most overrated statsitic for a WR. Also, Indy really didn't care that Marshall was getting those catches, they were perfectly content to let Marshall gain 8 yards and have 30+ seconds come off the clock before Marshall gained another 8 yards. Yes, it was impressive that he managed 21 catches and no I don't think Gaffney could have done it, but it wasn't the all-time performance some seem to think it was just because it set some semi-meaningless record. Marshall had(at best) the 3rd best game a WR had that week.

Disagree. TDs are the most overrated statistic for WRs because they are the hardest to predict and the WR has so little control over how he will be used in red zone. Catches are the one thing the WR has control over. Marshall has always had a high catch % despite going up and making attempts at really difficult passes that many other WRs don't even attempt.

 

[cstu]

No need to crunch any numbers, this is a situation where we just fall back on my favorite NFL-related slogan: follow the money. Even in an uncapped season, resources are not limitless. If a team invests a disproportionate amount of resources into something, then they believe that thing is likely to play a disproportionate role in their upcoming season. The Dolphins didn't pay Marshall $10mil to be an 80-catch receiver. I'd project him for 90+.

This.Marshall is not a decoy. They will use him to balance the rushing attack. It would not shock me if they throw to him every time he is in single coverage. Stack the line and they are throwing. Drop in coverage and they are running. Now D's have a reason to drop in coverage.

He won't be a decoy but I can see his numbers going down slightly (90 catches) since they don't need to force feed him the ball and I don't think he'll have another 18 or 21 catch game in Miami.

 

[SSOG]

Catches are the most overrated statsitic for a WR. Also, Indy really didn't care that Marshall was getting those catches, they were perfectly content to let Marshall gain 8 yards and have 30+ seconds come off the clock before Marshall gained another 8 yards. Yes, it was impressive that he managed 21 catches and no I don't think Gaffney could have done it, but it wasn't the all-time performance some seem to think it was just because it set some semi-meaningless record. Marshall had(at best) the 3rd best game a WR had that week.

Great posting. Somebody gets it.

Disagree. TDs are the most overrated statistic for WRs because they are the hardest to predict and the WR has so little control over how he will be used in red zone. Catches are the one thing the WR has control over. Marshall has always had a high catch % despite going up and making attempts at really difficult passes that many other WRs don't even attempt.

Touchdowns are an overrated statistic for FANTASY purposes, because they represent the smallest sample size (and therefore carry the most game-to-game and year-to-year volatility), and because they are disproportionately valued in most scoring systems. And even then, I would say that while TDs are overrated as a PREDICTIVE statistic, they're pretty accurately rated as a DESCRIPTIVE statistic (i.e. just because a WR catches 16 TDs doesn't mean he's going to do it again next year... but it sure as hell means that WR just had a monster season). And there are some cases where TDs hold plenty of predictive value from year to year (see: Fitzgerald, Larry. Also: Moss, Randy. Also: Owens, Terrell. Also: Harrison, Marvin. etc).For NFL purposes, though- not fantasy, strictly NFL- catches are the most overrated statistic on the planet, especially in a descriptive sense. All other things being equal, a catch is actually a *NEGATIVE* statistic. For instance, consider the following hypothetical:WR1 had 5 catches for 100 yards and 1 TD, with 5 first downsWR2 had 50 catches for 100 yards and 1 TD, with 5 first downsWhich WR had a better game? I'd say that the odds were greater than 50% that WR1's team won their game. I'd also say that the odds were probably 95+% that WR2's team *LOST* their game. Why? Because WR2's team burned at least FIFTY DOWNS trying to get the ball to him, and they only produced 5 first downs to show for it. That'd be one of the most anemic offensive showings of the season, guaranteed.Yards are a solid descriptive stat. Yards per reception is a better one. Yards per TARGET is a better stat, still. TDs is a fantastic descriptive stat, especially if you boil it down to TDs per target in the red zone. First down receptions (and variations thereof, including first downs per target) is actually my favorite descriptive stat of all. Catches, though? They're totally meaningless outside of the context provided by the other stats (yards, TDs, first downs). And, again, they're actually a negative statistic. If all else is equal, the guy with the most catches had the worst day.Well, to be perfectly fair, it's not catches that are a negative statistic, it's targets. It's just that catches tend to exhibit a strong positive correlation with targets, so they're more of a negative indicator than an actual negative statistic.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm just gonna throw this out there.

2009 stats

Denver -- 558 passing attempts (Marshall 101 receptions in 15 games)

NYG -- 542 passing attempts (S. Smith 107 receptions)

Dallas -- 550 passing attempts (Witten 94 receptions and Austin 81 receptions starting 12 games)

Pitt -- 536 passing attempts (H. Ward 95 receptions)

Miami -- 545 passing attempts (Bess 76 receptions)

You guys are making it sound as if Miami never throws the ball. Not only do they indeed throw the ball with at least average frequency (14th in passing attempts last year), but they threw for even more attempts than 2 other teams that had WR's with 95+ receptions and were within just a few attempts of 2 other teams that had the same. I'm not understanding the logic that somehow Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. Now, let's consider the following

--All 4 of the above teams have pretty respectable run games and weren't overly reliant on the pass - check

--Marshall has already topped 100 receptions - check

--Marshall has virtually no competition for pass targets - check

--Bess caught 76 balls in the same offense and Marshall >>>> Bess - check

--Miami intends to use Marshall based on the tremendous contract and extension he received - check

--Henne is now in his 2nd year and has a chance to improve - check

--Miami's pass/rush ratio was 51/49 last year compared to ~55/45 for those other teams and has room to actually increase pass attempts - check

Sorry, I'm just not seeing any legitimate reason to believe that Miami can't support a 100 catch WR. I'm not saying he's a lock for 100 receptions by any means, but some of you are suggesting that it's not really possible. Marshall will be closer to his avg of 100 receptions while in Denver than Bess's 76 receptions in Miami.

Well, let's see. Ronnie Brown played in Miami's first 9 games. I assume he got hurt at some point in the 9th game (week 10), so I'm going to ignore that game and look at the first 8 games (weeks 1-9).Miami attempted 241 passes in its first 8 games. That includes 4 attempts by Brown. That obviously projects to just 482 pass attempts in a full season.

So Miami attempted 304 passes in its last 8 games, which projects to 608 in a full season. Why the huge difference?

Brown's injury is an obvious possibility... which could lead one to conclude that they might not throw as much this year if he is healthy. Or possibly it was because their confidence in Henne grew. In which case, they could be encouraged to stick with a heavier pass ratio.

However, it is worth noting that Miami attempted just 491 passes in 2008, their only other season under Sporano... a season in which Brown played 16 games. That is essentially the same pace Miami was on before Brown got hurt in 2009.

I'm sure with Marshall and perhaps more confidence in Henne, the Dolphins will throw 500+ times. But I definitely would not assume they will throw 545 passes again... and maybe they won't come terribly close to that figure.

And Ricky's 241 carries figure in where.......???Starting in week 10, Ricky had 20, 22, 27, 18, 28, 19, 10, and 12 carries. Let's not pretend they stopped running just because Ronnie got hurt.

As a Dolphin fan, the Fins definitely changed up their offense completely when Ronnie got hurt. They didn't completely abandon the running game, but they most certainly moved away from it and they went from running 10-15 plays per game in the wildcat to running basically none.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Touchdowns are an overrated statistic for FANTASY purposes, because they represent the smallest sample size

Which is funny because many of the people that clamor on about this (not targeting you here) are more than willing to slap a "clutch" or "choker" label on someone when dealing with sample sizes MUCH smaller.

 

[SSOG]

Touchdowns are an overrated statistic for FANTASY purposes, because they represent the smallest sample size

Which is funny because many of the people that clamor on about this (not targeting you here) are more than willing to slap a "clutch" or "choker" label on someone when dealing with sample sizes MUCH smaller.

I don't know about that. Most of the guys I know on board the "TDs hold little predictive power from season to season" train are also aboard the "a 5 game sample size is ludicrously small to label someone a 'choker' over" train.

 

[BusMan]

Andrew Brandt's take on Marshall trade.

In this uncapped year, there have been few eye-opening contracts. The diluted free-agent class and lack of a cap floor have chilled spending. Last week’s Brandon Marshall deal, however, is an interesting one.

Different deals for top receivers

Santonio Holmes – with a four-game suspension coming -- was shipped to the Jets for a fifth-round pick. The Steelers were prepared to trade him for a ham sandwich. The Jets reportedly looked into acquiring Marshall prior to obtaining Holmes but were unable to reach accord on a new contract. There was no talk of a new contract for Holmes despite the fact he was in the last year of his rookie deal.

The Dolphins acquired Marshall on the one-year, $2.5-million tender contract and replaced it with a five-year contract.

The Denver deletion

As written here last week, Marshall’s past is littered with off-field issues. He was suspended in 2008 and somehow avoided suspension in 2009 (league executives were incredulous that he avoided missing games after yet another domestic abuse incident).

Word in Denver is that there were cheers in the locker room when word of the trade came down last week. The Broncos even chose to have team captain Daniel Graham make an official statement about Marshall’s departure rather than the owner, coach or general manager. That was as telling as any announcement of a trade I’ve seen.

It’s one thing to acquire Marshall on a one-year deal with implicit motivation to perform for a new contract; it’s another to empower and enable him with financial security.

The contract

Could the Dolphins have acquired Marshall without giving him a new deal? Good question. Yes, they would not have parted with two second-round picks for only one year of a contract, and Marshall may not have been thrilled. However, removing him from a coach he did not like in Josh McDaniels and finding himself in Miami may have been enough to brighten his mood.

Ignoring the total value of $47.5 million, much of it nonguaranteed funny money later in the deal, the Dolphins raised Marshall’s 2010 compensation from $2.5M to $9.5M – a signing bonus of $5.5M, guaranteed salary of $4M, plus $3M in future guaranteed salary with an offset (the Jake Delhomme lesson).

In 2011, the Dolphins can retain Marshall with a $3M option bonus, and that secures future guarantees of $12.5M in 2011 and 2012.

Thus, Marshall either makes between $9.5M and $12.5M for one year, or he makes up to $25M guaranteed over three years. Not bad for a character risk.

Two views on the deal

I’ve heard spin on this deal from team executives complaining that the Dolphins gave too much and agents complaining that Marshall didn’t get enough. I’ll try to look at both sides.

The Dolphins did well to protect a large amount of the guarantees, structured in the form of future guaranteed salary rather than bonus, allowing for easier recovery or non-payment for bad behavior and/or suspension.

From the Dolphins’ perspective, they did not want to part with two second-round picks without having the player under contract for more than one year. However, if they don’t exercise the option bonus next April – presumably because the player has become the prima donna or Personal Conduct Policy offender they maintain he is not – they will have had him for one year and $12.5M (with a $3M offset) in exchange for those two second-round picks.

From the player’s standpoint, Marshall’s deal is not at the level of the gold standard contract for a receiver -- that of Larry Fitzgerald’s $30M guaranteed on a four-year $40M deal where he’ll be a free agent again soon. But Fitzgerald, in the year of negotiation, was scheduled to make $14.6M (and $17.4M the following year). Marshall, as noted above, was scheduled to make $2.5M.

Third try a charm?

The Dolphins invested $14M guaranteed in this position in the 2007 draft (Ted Ginn Jr.) and then $7M in 2008 in free agency (Ernest Wilford). With both players now off the roster, the attention turns to Marshall and his $9.5M guaranteed this year, bringing the total to $30.5M guaranteed in four years in their attempt to find a go-to receiver.

League-wide reverberations

Vincent Jackson and Miles Austin are watching this deal closely. Both are playing under the “super tender†– fist- and third-round picks – compared to Marshall’s first-round tender. And somewhere, DeSean Jackson and Sidney Rice are also smiling.

Austin, Rice, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson (and Santonio Holmes, for that matter) had more receiving yards than Marshall last season.

The Marshall plan may have lasting effects, reverberating from Florida to Texas to California to Minnesota to Pennsylvania and more.

Maybe Marshall will become a team player with high character to go along with his prodigious talent. My sense is that that’s more hope than expectation, making this trade and contract a calculated risk.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Give an idiot that kind of money and send him to South Beach 1 strike away from sitting out a season...

...

...

Yeah. My prediction is he play maybe 10 games total over the duration of the contract, then is out of the league.

One guy I will NOT touch in any format (unless at extreme value).

Brandon Marshall w/ very little $$ got in all kinds of trouble with the Law, team, and the League. Marshall w/ unlimitted funds = recipe for disaster.

 

[SSOG]

Andrew Brandt's take on Marshall trade.

In this uncapped year, there have been few eye-opening contracts. The diluted free-agent class and lack of a cap floor have chilled spending. Last week’s Brandon Marshall deal, however, is an interesting one.

Different deals for top receivers

Santonio Holmes – with a four-game suspension coming -- was shipped to the Jets for a fifth-round pick. The Steelers were prepared to trade him for a ham sandwich. The Jets reportedly looked into acquiring Marshall prior to obtaining Holmes but were unable to reach accord on a new contract. There was no talk of a new contract for Holmes despite the fact he was in the last year of his rookie deal.

The Dolphins acquired Marshall on the one-year, $2.5-million tender contract and replaced it with a five-year contract.

The Denver deletion

As written here last week, Marshall’s past is littered with off-field issues. He was suspended in 2008 and somehow avoided suspension in 2009 (league executives were incredulous that he avoided missing games after yet another domestic abuse incident).

Word in Denver is that there were cheers in the locker room when word of the trade came down last week. The Broncos even chose to have team captain Daniel Graham make an official statement about Marshall’s departure rather than the owner, coach or general manager. That was as telling as any announcement of a trade I’ve seen.

It’s one thing to acquire Marshall on a one-year deal with implicit motivation to perform for a new contract; it’s another to empower and enable him with financial security.

The contract

Could the Dolphins have acquired Marshall without giving him a new deal? Good question. Yes, they would not have parted with two second-round picks for only one year of a contract, and Marshall may not have been thrilled. However, removing him from a coach he did not like in Josh McDaniels and finding himself in Miami may have been enough to brighten his mood.

Ignoring the total value of $47.5 million, much of it nonguaranteed funny money later in the deal, the Dolphins raised Marshall’s 2010 compensation from $2.5M to $9.5M – a signing bonus of $5.5M, guaranteed salary of $4M, plus $3M in future guaranteed salary with an offset (the Jake Delhomme lesson).

In 2011, the Dolphins can retain Marshall with a $3M option bonus, and that secures future guarantees of $12.5M in 2011 and 2012.

Thus, Marshall either makes between $9.5M and $12.5M for one year, or he makes up to $25M guaranteed over three years. Not bad for a character risk.

Two views on the deal

I’ve heard spin on this deal from team executives complaining that the Dolphins gave too much and agents complaining that Marshall didn’t get enough. I’ll try to look at both sides.

The Dolphins did well to protect a large amount of the guarantees, structured in the form of future guaranteed salary rather than bonus, allowing for easier recovery or non-payment for bad behavior and/or suspension.

From the Dolphins’ perspective, they did not want to part with two second-round picks without having the player under contract for more than one year. However, if they don’t exercise the option bonus next April – presumably because the player has become the prima donna or Personal Conduct Policy offender they maintain he is not – they will have had him for one year and $12.5M (with a $3M offset) in exchange for those two second-round picks.

From the player’s standpoint, Marshall’s deal is not at the level of the gold standard contract for a receiver -- that of Larry Fitzgerald’s $30M guaranteed on a four-year $40M deal where he’ll be a free agent again soon. But Fitzgerald, in the year of negotiation, was scheduled to make $14.6M (and $17.4M the following year). Marshall, as noted above, was scheduled to make $2.5M.

Third try a charm?

The Dolphins invested $14M guaranteed in this position in the 2007 draft (Ted Ginn Jr.) and then $7M in 2008 in free agency (Ernest Wilford). With both players now off the roster, the attention turns to Marshall and his $9.5M guaranteed this year, bringing the total to $30.5M guaranteed in four years in their attempt to find a go-to receiver.

League-wide reverberations

Vincent Jackson and Miles Austin are watching this deal closely. Both are playing under the “super tender†– fist- and third-round picks – compared to Marshall’s first-round tender. And somewhere, DeSean Jackson and Sidney Rice are also smiling.

Austin, Rice, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson (and Santonio Holmes, for that matter) had more receiving yards than Marshall last season.

The Marshall plan may have lasting effects, reverberating from Florida to Texas to California to Minnesota to Pennsylvania and more.

Maybe Marshall will become a team player with high character to go along with his prodigious talent. My sense is that that’s more hope than expectation, making this trade and contract a calculated risk.

Good find. The part about Denver's locker room is especially interesting.

 

[Buffaloes]

I thought the quoted was a little interesting.

The Denver deletion

APBrandon Marshall was shipped to the Dolphins, who gave their new WR a five-year contract.

As written here last week, Marshall's past is littered with off-field issues. He was suspended in 2008 and somehow avoided suspension in 2009 (league executives were incredulous that he avoided missing games after yet another domestic abuse incident).

Word in Denver is that there were cheers in the locker room when word of the trade came down last week. The Broncos even chose to have team captain Daniel Graham make an official statement about Marshall's departure rather than the owner, coach or general manager. That was as telling as any announcement of a trade I've seen.

It's one thing to acquire Marshall on a one-year deal with implicit motivation to perform for a new contract; it's another to empower and enable him with financial security.

Link

 

[BRONG]

Good find. The part about Denver's locker room is especially interesting.

Especially for you, I'd imagine.

 

[az_prof]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.

As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

 

[moleculo]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

quoted for posterity.

 

[az_prof]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

quoted for posterity.

I am not one to bump things as a "told you so," but if someone bumps this to prove me wrong, so be it. I stand by my claim that I would rather trust the judgement of Bill Parcells than McDaniels and that Marshall will win a lot more games in the NFL than McDaniels. It's going to be a long road back for Denver unless he learns how to manage people better.

 

[Buffaloes]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

quoted for posterity.

I am not one to bump things as a "told you so," but if someone bumps this to prove me wrong, so be it. I stand by my claim that I would rather trust the judgement of Bill Parcells than McDaniels and that Marshall will win a lot more games in the NFL than McDaniels. It's going to be a long road back for Denver unless he learns how to manage people better.

Are we still ignoring the numerous issues Marshall had with the organization prior to McDaniels coming on board? This still a McDaniels vs. Marshall thing? Just looking for some clarification.

 

[BRONG]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

quoted for posterity.

What's funny is, I actually went back for some SSOG garble, and I found so much stuff from the both of them, not to mention todem and Jason Bourne, who insists Marshall's done nothing wrong in over 18 months , and I just couldn't pick where to start. Seriously, I gave up there were so many. Great thread.

 

[SSOG]

Good find. The part about Denver's locker room is especially interesting.

Especially for you, I'd imagine.

You don't think it's interesting that his teammates literally CHEERED the fact that he was gone? Regardless of what you think of Marshall, that's extremely interesting. The guy's never been perceived as a locker room cancer, and now suddenly we learn that his teammates are openly celebrating his departure.

 

[thatguy]

Anyone care to guess how much cheering there will be when McFool finally is the one leaving Denver with his tail between his legs? He has traded away a number of good players and let his best assistant coach leave because his ego is too big. I suppose the excuse at the end of this season, which is likely to be 5-11 or 6-10 at best, will be the team is "rebuilding." But the days of a five year rebuilding effort in the NFL are history; most HC's only get one or two years. McFool will get a third because the owner has double downed with him--but by the end of 2011 he will be packing his bags. I can see him in the college game where a big ego like his will awe the impressionable college kids.

As other people have said, I will trust the Big Tuna's judgement before McDaniel's anyday of the week.

Honestly you're talking apples and oranges here. A lot of stuff went down that eventually led to Marshall's departure - most of this stuff occurred prior to McDaniels ever becoming Denver's coach (were Shanny still in Denver, Marshall would have spent one less year in Denver than he ultimately did). Marshall leaving was an inevitability. Parcell's judgment may have led him to believe that bringing in Marshall was the right move, that giving up 2 2nd round draft picks and $50 million was a fair price; it may may have led him to believe that Marshall will stay out of trouble - whatever. He might be right. McDaniel's judgment, on the other hand, led him to believe that there was no way Denver and Marshall could reconcile; it led him to believe that Marshall simply did not view Denver as part of his long term plans. So he got what he could for someone who was going to leave anyway after one more season. To look at this whole situation from the perspective of Miami and the perspective of Denver and assume what they are seeing is even remotely similar is foolish.

 

[massraider]

Apparently he just got married. Hopefully that's going to help him stay out of trouble.