Chris Ivory (2 Viewers)

[Phenix]

I made 4 offers in 3 PPR dynasty leagues yesterday for Ivory... all rejected, maybe not surprisingly, but just a FYI anyway:

Frank Gore

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (same owner)

DeAngelo Williams (same owner)

Daryl Richardson

I thought maybe since the Saints-Jets trade still has not happened it might increase my chances, but no dice.

Gore? Uh, no. I wouldnt even try that after the move. lol

If he gets moved to the Jets, middle two I could see some people making those moves.

Richardson? LOL He is the same dude as Ivory right now, If Ivory gets moved If someone was offered Iivory for Richardson, heck yeah u take it.

 

[FF Ninja]

While I agree that 4.2 ypc is conservative, I just don't see the likelihood of 200 rushes being very high. That's why I placed his probability of finishing the year in the top 24 so low. The numbers you ran were from an assumed 16 game season right? Last year's #24 didn't play 16 games. Every year there are players who sneak into end-of-year rankings due to playing 16 games while better fantasy players drop due to missing a few games. If your 16 game projection has him borderline top 24 then that means his PPG is well below RB2 status. Would a guy who scores 120 points in 16 games have value? Absolutely. He's not a guy you want in there as your RB2 all season, but he'd have value. The reason I'm down on him is a value thing. 11 guys can value him at RB33 but it just takes one guy who think he's a near lock for RB20 production for him to go in the 4th or 5th round. I'm not paying that. I think a trade to the Jets vaults Ivory's value way beyond what it should be for an injury prone 2-down RB with some pretty decent competition and a bad offense.

So your entire perspective is tied to not being able to get good value for him in a redraft? I was under the impression that we were generally talking in this thread about the opportunity in front of him and how he might perform with it. You could say the same thing about almost any player in the NFL, i.e., that it only takes one owner to overvalue him and take him before you would. I don't see that as being particularly relevant to the discussion. The bolded is all I and a number of others have been getting at all along.

For brevity sake, I deleted our best case discussion. On that I'll just say that any one of those items you mentioned is absolutely realistic. The probability of all of them occurring is miniscule, thus I don't consider that scenario a realistic best case.

And while I wouldn't say that my perspective is based solely on redraft value, it is based on value. His supporters are expecting a lot out of this guy. If we're going to discuss his prospects then his value is naturally tied into it. We can spend all day talking about his ceiling and how he could feasibly outscore this guy or that, but Ivory's realistic expected value is much lower than his supporters seem to think (IMO).

It appears that a lot of people here expect way more than the bolded. I suspect his cost/ADP will place him way out of my price range for a bye week filler, but I'm not opposed to having him on my team if that is not the case. I think it is much more likely that I have Goodson on my teams than Ivory.

It's going to be kind of funny to see Ivory being drafted before Ingram (assuming this trade goes through).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's going to be kind of funny to see Ivory being drafted before Ingram (assuming this trade goes through).

If Pierre Thomas isn't released, I don't see that as any kind of big mistake. Both are pretty similar backs. While NO obviously has the better overall offense, the fact the Jets will likely be more run reliant than NO will be, cancels that out the fact NO will have more offensive snaps overall to some degree.

It's fairly realistic to assume that Ivory sees more opportunities competeing with Goodson and Powell for snaps than Ingram competing with Thomas and Sproles for snaps.

If the Jets land a top OG at 9 or 13, their o-line should be above average again and the new WCO should help keep defenses a little more honest, when a short completion can lead to a big play. Holmes and Kerley are prodicutive runners after the catch.

 

[matttyl]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

 

[Bruce Hammond]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

 

[matttyl]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

Great answer! It's not a PPR league, but we have bonuses at 5, 8 and 10 receptions (1-2 points each). I know this likely isn't the place to post this, but I asked because I have a standing offer of getting Ivory (and a 2015 1st rounder) for the #8 pick in this draft where I might be able to land Eifert. The deal might get pulled the second Ivory is traded, though.

 

[jonboltz]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

I only play PPR leagues, and own him in several leagues. I'd likely be willing to move him for a late first. Love his talent at running the ball, but still have huge questions regarding his ability to stay on the field and as a pass catcher.

 

[jonboltz]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

Great answer! It's not a PPR league, but we have bonuses at 5, 8 and 10 receptions (1-2 points each). I know this likely isn't the place to post this, but I asked because I have a standing offer of getting Ivory (and a 2015 1st rounder) for the #8 pick in this draft where I might be able to land Eifert. The deal might get pulled the second Ivory is traded, though.

Would much rather have the two picks in a PPR, IMHO.

 

[matttyl]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

Great answer! It's not a PPR league, but we have bonuses at 5, 8 and 10 receptions (1-2 points each). I know this likely isn't the place to post this, but I asked because I have a standing offer of getting Ivory (and a 2015 1st rounder) for the #8 pick in this draft where I might be able to land Eifert. The deal might get pulled the second Ivory is traded, though.

Would much rather have the two picks in a PPR, IMHO.

It's not two picks - I'd be getting Ivory and a 2015 1st for just the #8 pick in this draft. As the 2015 1st could be #1 or #10, and is two years away, I view it as a bonus. Just seeing if Ivory ends up in NY, would he be worth the #8 rookie pick this year (non PPR league)?

 

[jonboltz]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

Great answer! It's not a PPR league, but we have bonuses at 5, 8 and 10 receptions (1-2 points each). I know this likely isn't the place to post this, but I asked because I have a standing offer of getting Ivory (and a 2015 1st rounder) for the #8 pick in this draft where I might be able to land Eifert. The deal might get pulled the second Ivory is traded, though.

Would much rather have the two picks in a PPR, IMHO.

It's not two picks - I'd be getting Ivory and a 2015 1st for just the #8 pick in this draft. As the 2015 1st could be #1 or #10, and is two years away, I view it as a bonus. Just seeing if Ivory ends up in NY, would he be worth the #8 rookie pick this year (non PPR league)?

Ah, I misunderstood. I would defer to others that plan in non-PPR leagues.

 

[saintfool]

It's going to be kind of funny to see Ivory being drafted before Ingram (assuming this trade goes through).

If Pierre Thomas isn't released, I don't see that as any kind of big mistake. Both are pretty similar backs. While NO obviously has the better overall offense, the fact the Jets will likely be more run reliant than NO will be, cancels that out the fact NO will have more offensive snaps overall to some degree.

It's fairly realistic to assume that Ivory sees more opportunities competeing with Goodson and Powell for snaps than Ingram competing with Thomas and Sproles for snaps.

If the Jets land a top OG at 9 or 13, their o-line should be above average again and the new WCO should help keep defenses a little more honest, when a short completion can lead to a big play. Holmes and Kerley are prodicutive runners after the catch.

Pierre is not leaving this year. Some would argue he is the best RB on the team, in fact, but he is certainly the most versatile RB on the team. He is a fan favorite and a leader in the locker room. His cap number might be disproportinate to his touches but he's too good, too valuable otherwise.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's going to be kind of funny to see Ivory being drafted before Ingram (assuming this trade goes through).

If Pierre Thomas isn't released, I don't see that as any kind of big mistake. Both are pretty similar backs. While NO obviously has the better overall offense, the fact the Jets will likely be more run reliant than NO will be, cancels that out the fact NO will have more offensive snaps overall to some degree.

It's fairly realistic to assume that Ivory sees more opportunities competeing with Goodson and Powell for snaps than Ingram competing with Thomas and Sproles for snaps.

If the Jets land a top OG at 9 or 13, their o-line should be above average again and the new WCO should help keep defenses a little more honest, when a short completion can lead to a big play. Holmes and Kerley are prodicutive runners after the catch.

Pierre is not leaving this year. Some would argue he is the best RB on the team, in fact, but he is certainly the most versatile RB on the team. He is a fan favorite and a leader in the locker room. His cap number might be disproportinate to his touches but he's too good, too valuable otherwise.

I agree, which was kind of the point I was making. With Thomas still in the fold, drafting Ivory (if the trade to the Jets does happen) before Ingram in a redraft league isn't an outrageous prospect.

 

[Mookie]

It's an interesting time to be fielding trade offers for Ivory in dynasty. So far, the Jets have been the only team in play, and he is being projected out as the 1st and 2nd down back in that offense. As someone above noted, there is always the possibility that another team swoops in and gives the Saints a better offer than the Jets. If that team winds up being a contender like the Broncos or GB, do Ivory's projected stats, and his trade value, increase or decrease?

 

[Black]

It's an interesting time to be fielding trade offers for Ivory in dynasty. So far, the Jets have been the only team in play, and he is being projected out as the 1st and 2nd down back in that offense. As someone above noted, there is always the possibility that another team swoops in and gives the Saints a better offer than the Jets. If that team winds up being a contender like the Broncos or GB, do Ivory's projected stats, and his trade value, increase or decrease?

I think only the Jets have discussed this formally, but then were reports the Saints were shopping him for the highest offer.

If he ends up on DEN or even GB, I think he becomes a top 20 RB, even in PPR. Maybe those teams will see what RB they can get day 2-3 in the draft though.

 

[matttyl]

So are we assuming an 80% chance that Ivory won't be a Saint by the end of the weekend?

Also, are we assuming that ANY move out of NO would be good for him?

 

[FF Ninja]

It's going to be kind of funny to see Ivory being drafted before Ingram (assuming this trade goes through).

If Pierre Thomas isn't released, I don't see that as any kind of big mistake. Both are pretty similar backs. While NO obviously has the better overall offense, the fact the Jets will likely be more run reliant than NO will be, cancels that out the fact NO will have more offensive snaps overall to some degree.

It's fairly realistic to assume that Ivory sees more opportunities competeing with Goodson and Powell for snaps than Ingram competing with Thomas and Sproles for snaps.

If the Jets land a top OG at 9 or 13, their o-line should be above average again and the new WCO should help keep defenses a little more honest, when a short completion can lead to a big play. Holmes and Kerley are prodicutive runners after the catch.

Pierre is not leaving this year. Some would argue he is the best RB on the team, in fact, but he is certainly the most versatile RB on the team. He is a fan favorite and a leader in the locker room. His cap number might be disproportinate to his touches but he's too good, too valuable otherwise.

I agree, which was kind of the point I was making. With Thomas still in the fold, drafting Ivory (if the trade to the Jets does happen) before Ingram in a redraft league isn't an outrageous prospect.

And just to clear things up, I didn't mean that it would be a bad move. Just that it would be kind of funny to see Ivory leap frogging Ingram.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's an interesting time to be fielding trade offers for Ivory in dynasty. So far, the Jets have been the only team in play, and he is being projected out as the 1st and 2nd down back in that offense. As someone above noted, there is always the possibility that another team swoops in and gives the Saints a better offer than the Jets. If that team winds up being a contender like the Broncos or GB, do Ivory's projected stats, and his trade value, increase or decrease?

I think the whole talk of "shopping him" and "other teams being interested" were just negotiating tactics to get the Jets to up their offer from a 5th to a 4th. I really don't think there's been any other interest. Only the Jets brought him in for a visit.

 

[humpback]

If Ivory is still a free agent in your league, where would you select him (assuming he's traded) in upcoming rookie/free agent drafts? First round? Top of 2nd round?

Depends to some extent on whether your league is PPR or not.

Once the trade goes down I'll have him probably between Lacy and the next rookie RB, at worst maybe behind the 2nd rookie RB. In PPR I'd have maybe 4-6 rookie WRs ahead of him, in non-PPR maybe just 2-3. Depends on scoring and need, but TE Eifert may belong ahead of him (esp in PPR). So for me he'd be a 1st round rookie pick, mid-to-later in the round depending on scoring.

Great answer! It's not a PPR league, but we have bonuses at 5, 8 and 10 receptions (1-2 points each). I know this likely isn't the place to post this, but I asked because I have a standing offer of getting Ivory (and a 2015 1st rounder) for the #8 pick in this draft where I might be able to land Eifert. The deal might get pulled the second Ivory is traded, though.

If you're assuming he's traded, I think this deal is a no-brainer. Obviously more of a gamble without that assumption, but one I'd probably take. Even if a trade doesn't happen this year, he'll be a UFA after the season.

 

[NYRAGE]

To the Jets for a 4th round pick

 

[donkshow]

Boom

 

[Phenix]

Manish Mehta ‏@MMehtaNYDN 21s

Jets traded 4th rd pick (106 overall) to Saints for RB Chris Ivory. #NYJ had initially offered a 6th rounder. Saints wanted 4th. They got it

 

[Young 8]

Ivory: 1st, 2nd

Goodson: 3rd down

 

[The Man With No Name]

Ivory and Jets working on a long term contract per ESPN

 

[Kree]

They sent the 4th, I don't think they have a choice but to give him the carries now

 

[Rolling_akg]

They sent the 4th, I don't think they have a choice but to give him the carries now

Well it is still rexy

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Beast Mode redux

FB Tebow will clear a path for our boy.

 

[Phenix]

Now that speculation of a trade is over. What is Ivorys current value compared to the other rookies in this draft? Would you take Ivory over any RB in this class?

 

[jonboltz]

Now that speculation of a trade is over. What is Ivorys current value compared to the other rookies in this draft? Would you take Ivory over any RB in this class?

Currently ahead of Michael and Davis, but behind the top four guys. Likely will be ahead of everyone left in my eyes, unless Franklin goes to Indy.

 

[Sabertooth]

I can't put him over any of the guys that have been picked yet. Certainly not over Lacy, ball, bernard or bell.

 

[Kree]

@RapSheet Precise terms of Chris Ivory's 3-year Jets deal isn't known. I'm told it's starter money. Maybe in the $3M range. We'll see tho
Rumoured: 10mil-ish over 3 years.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanfora3m
The Jets have rewarded recently-acquired RB Chris Ivory with a 3yr/ $10M deal. Great opportunity for the former Saint there

 

[Doubtingthomas]

Gotta think primary back with that,salary

 

[jacobo_moses]

From PFF. I think this sums it up just fine.

Chris Ivory, the darling of sleeper lists for the last two offseasons, is finally getting his chance for the New York Jets. Ivory, who is 6’0” and 222 pounds, is the square peg to Drew Brees’ round-hole offense. Even though he has seen limited touches after 137 carries in 2010, his numbers are still elite and now everyone will find out what he has to offer.

Simply looking at his 2012 stats, you’d see Chris Ivory rush 40 times in six games for an average of 5.4 yards per carry. While that is very good, his numbers get even better when going in depth. He had a missed tackle for every 3.23 carries, which ranked him third of all running backs, up from a missed tackle every 7.18 carries back in 2011. In addition, Ivory had a 15 yard or more run for every 13.3 carries, which ranked him at 14th among running backs. His points per snap came in at 0.55 which was fifth overall.

While having breakaway runs and missed tackles are important, his PFF Signature Stats tell a similar story. His elusive rating, which measures the ability of a running back beyond the help of blockers, topped out at 146.2. Ivory’s yards after contact were 4.73. Both of these stats were the highest among any running back with at least 40 carries. He also graded at +3.9 PFF overall and +3.7 PFF rushing. Now Ivory moves to a Jets offense that has ranked second, 16th, and sixth the last three years respectively in rushing attempts as a team.

Chris Ivory has a lot of talent, and now the Jets will see why he was underutilized in New Orleans. Ivory will be a hot commodity come draft time in August.

 

[Phenix]

I can't put him over any of the guys that have been picked yet. Certainly not over Lacy, ball, bernard or bell.

Lacy may not even be the best runner the Pack drafted.

Ivory, who was just given starter cash and we know what he can do, OR Lacy, who has been hurt and has another rookie to compete with? You would still take Lacy? Fair enough if you say yes, but I disagree.

 

[Tau837]

From Rotoworld:

Jets signed RB Chris Ivory to a three-year, $10 million contract.

Ivory turned 25 last month, so the three-year deal keeps him under the Jets' control through his age-27 season. He'll be eligible to enter free agency at 28, giving Ivory a chance at another significant contract should he capitalize on the opportunity in New York. It's a good deal for both sides. The contract is worth more than Mike Goodson's three-year, $6.9 million contract, which all but locks in Ivory as the heavy favorite for early-down carries. Goodson will play on passing downs and work in the change-of-pace role.

Not sure how I will ultimately rank Ivory relative to the rookie RBs, but I don't think any of the rookie RBs are very clearly ahead of him right now.

 

[Benchwarmers]

Ivory I think will only be 2 down back.

 

[msommer]

That contract looks like Shonn Greene's with Titans. Even though the money is higher than Goodson's it's not that much, $1m per year higher only

 

[Tau837]

That contract looks like Shonn Greene's with Titans. Even though the money is higher than Goodson's it's not that much, $1m per year higher only

It's nearly 50% higher than Goodson's contract.

 

[donkshow]

He's a beast. Simple as that.

ALL ABOARD!

 

[Langly]

and the trade offers are pouring in. Mostly all bad, but they are coming. What to do, What to do...Will he stay healthy all season and go beast mode in NY, or should he be moved for round 1 draft pick +picks or players....

 

[Phenix]

and the trade offers are pouring in. Mostly all bad, but they are coming. What to do, What to do...Will he stay healthy all season and go beast mode in NY, or should he be moved for round 1 draft pick +picks or players....

People still don't want to accept the fact that Ivory is now a starting RB with huge upside. Heck Greene was RB 18 last year in that bad offense. His injury risk is no more than ADP, Foster or Mathews any given player on any given play. People will knock Ivory to try to lower his value, just don't cave as you do not have to move him. You just had a starting RB handed to you on a silver platter. If you held this long, keep holding until a great offer. People can say he is not better then Greene, but just take solace in knowing you have a leg up as they must not have eyes or watch football.

I really believe this kid is beastly, and he will set this season on fire. Let people talk smack about him, just know you holding on to him and getting a steal of a starter kinda makes them jealous since they didn't see it when you did.

 

[Banger]

This is a nice move for the Jets. Draft picks at any point in the draft have risk since they've never played a down in the NFL...so getting a guy that performed well for a 4th rounder is a nice move. Also, the price they signed him for is essentially good backup money. I think he's a nice upgrade over Greene.

 

[SWC]

i would like this move if he went anywhere but to the jets i just think they ruin people that i think should be good and it makes me sort of angry i just do not draft anyone from that team bam right there brohans

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Good luck to Chris Ivory and to the Jets. He deserves it and Jets fans he is fun to watch. The Saints are also happy with the 4th they turned into a 3rd and used on Jenkins.

Jets play the Saints 11/3 week 9, should be interesting.

Not in the NO game, but I would love to see him get the ball 25-30 times in a game and see what happens. He can catch and run too, I remember him having a great screen reception TD in a preseason game a while back.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Ivory got less than goodson? Who got starter money?

 

[donkshow]

Ivory got less than goodson? Who got starter money?

Ivory got more than Goodson.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Ivory got less than goodson? Who got starter money?

Ivory got more than Goodson.

I thought I read 3/6.9 mill for goody and 3/6 mill for ivory.

 

[Phenix]

Ivory got less than goodson? Who got starter money?

Ivory got more than Goodson.

Yup, has escaltors that have him reaching 10 million.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Ivory got less than goodson? Who got starter money?

Ivory got more than Goodson.

Yup, has escaltors that have him reaching 10 million.

Didn't see that. Jets insider showed no bonus incentives. That makes a difference but not what was reported

 

[Steel Dillo]

I wonder if the Jets are trying to mimic the Redskins scheme. Read option with Geno & pound it with Ivory.