Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Mostly he is rebuilding and his only pieces of value were Mahomes and Kelce. I have Josh Allen, so QB was not a need. He really wanted a better RB than Harris in the deal, but I would not budge.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Lehigh98
Footballguy
With all the Pitts talk, here's the deal I made last month to acquire him (posted in the Dynasty Trades thread)
Well, I finally went ahead and did it in my main league...
Gave: Dak, Hendon Hooker (23), Eric Gray (23)
Got: Pitts, 2023 2nd, 2023 3rd (both should be mid to late)
League Settings:
Superflex, best ball with 10 scoring: QB, RB, WR, TE, 5 Flex, 1 SF
Roster of 25, taxi squad of up to 10 additional non-scoring rookies / devy
PPR with TE Premium (2 pts for TE vs 1 pt for all other positions)
Additional Considerations:
I was over the roster limit and needed to get rid of some devys anyway.
QBs now: Herbert, Burrow, Corral, Jurkovec (23), Daniels (23), Dart (24)
TEs now: Pitts, Trautman, Bryant, Parham, Granson, Mayer (23)
What do you guys think?
Now off to try and pick up some cheap, lower tier QBs in case something happens to Herbert or Burrow...
Skipdog77
Footballguy
Dynasty 12 team, PPR, start 1 QB, 1RB/2WR or 2RB/2WR, 1 TE
Team A gives 1.05
Team B gives Mike Williams, WR LAC
Team A not enamored with any of the WR that are expected to be available at that spot, could use an impact WR for this season. Is this a fair offer for both sides? Williams worth more or less?
Team A gives 1.05
Team B gives Mike Williams, WR LAC
Team A not enamored with any of the WR that are expected to be available at that spot, could use an impact WR for this season. Is this a fair offer for both sides? Williams worth more or less?
joey
Footballguy
Fair enough imo but I side with the pick. I’d rather the unknown rookie WR with upside than the WR who was injured at a couple of critical times such that it now taints my view of him.
Catbird
Footballguy
Give me the 1.05.
Williams is 27 and has probably reached his absolute physical prime. His situation might get better if he becomes the LAC #1 before aging begins to take a toll, but 3 years out he is likely to be a fading talent. The 1.05, assuming we are comparing WRs, could be a top 10 receiver for 7-8 years. Huge talent there, although obviously not to a certainty. To me, you win with studs. I would much rather have a good chance at greatness and very good likelihood of being my teams #1or #2 for several years than a guy who may be his team's #1 or #2 - or may not - for maybe 3 years going forward, has a history of injuries and no matter what will be in decline within a very few seasons.
Easy, I think, to trade London, Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson for a Mike Williams and other parts of value.
Williams is 27 and has probably reached his absolute physical prime. His situation might get better if he becomes the LAC #1 before aging begins to take a toll, but 3 years out he is likely to be a fading talent. The 1.05, assuming we are comparing WRs, could be a top 10 receiver for 7-8 years. Huge talent there, although obviously not to a certainty. To me, you win with studs. I would much rather have a good chance at greatness and very good likelihood of being my teams #1or #2 for several years than a guy who may be his team's #1 or #2 - or may not - for maybe 3 years going forward, has a history of injuries and no matter what will be in decline within a very few seasons.
Easy, I think, to trade London, Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson for a Mike Williams and other parts of value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Nah, that’s just a bad offer. Clearly while you may indeed have been born at night, that person thinks you were born last night.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Was offered Gaskin and a 4th as well from someone else. Guess I should have never put Ekeler on the block.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For me it’s all about context. If that WR gives him immediate help, it’s a no brainer.
If a rebuild, I still might take Mike Williams here as he’s likely got better trade value than that 2022 1.05
So I guess gimme the Williams side either way. Maybe it’s not about context. Lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah - yes, to some folks, “on the block” = “I hate this player and wish to jettison him from my team at any cost!”
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
You have your answer right here. This is, in some leagues, an invite to ####ty, ####ty offers from your cheaper league-mates.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. I'd give that up for Pitts, too, but it's not unfair. Probably not wise, but not unfair.
Tau837
Footballguy
After this season, Ekeler can be cut with just $1.5M in dead cap money, saving $5.75M on the 2023 cap.
The Chargers have a very serious cap challenge in 2023 as things stand today, assuming they give Derwin James a market-level extension. So they could be motivated to save space by releasing or trading Ekeler.
The Chargers just drafted a RB with a reasonable chance of becoming at least a lead RB in a committee (not this season, barring Ekeler injury, but long term).
RB value tends to drop off quickly based on age.
Add up these factors, and it could simply be that Ekeler owners are looking to cash out earlier rather than waiting too long.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Blockbuster!
I have to say, if someone offered me that in my 1-TE dynasty for Pitts (I already have Pitts & GDavis) I would be very tempted. I think I’m taking Schultz, Davis & the pick here. That you get a relatively young & productive TE in return along with a ‘23 top 6 & an up & coming WR?
I don’t know what the calcs will say, but yeah - this is a rare case where I like the bigger side of the deal. Not by a ton, and if you ask me tomorrow I might say Pitts side. But I’m high on Gabe & Schultz. And ‘23 picks
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I don't disagree that his long term isn't as valuable as younger backs. But for this year at least...
rockaction
Footballguy
It would seem to all depend on Spiller. Is he what he tested or what he rushed for in the SEC? I drafted Spiller as my fifth pick this year at 2.02, and he's in the 2.05-2.09 range, I think, so I'm a bit biased in favor of Spiller, but even given that, I don't think he makes it urgent for them to cut Ekeler. Unless they draft one of the studs coming out this year early, but that would go against analytics-based thinking, and their FO loves analytics-based thinking.
It's up in the air as any, but that's my roundabout way of saying even with Spiller, I don't think they'll cut Ekeler after the year (barring a massive decrease in performance from Ekeler or a surprise increase in expendability because of a great Spiller performance).
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Skipdog77
Footballguy
Thanks for the inputs gents. I agree it comes down to if Team A thinks they can win now or not.
All the top rookie WRs have some issues that may hamper them this year and for the next couple of years, to me there are no clear cut slam dunks in this group. Who is going to consistently throw the ball to London (although I would expect him to be gone by the 1.05 pick)? What's Garrett Wilson's true upside with Zach Wilson at QB? Is Jameson Williams fully recovered next season, and well..Detroit.
If LAC's offense continues to improve with Herbert, 3-4 years of Big Mike Williams may be worth it, if he can stay healthy. Although Jameson Williams could very well be special. Tough choice.
Anyone traded for Deshaun Watson recently? What’s he worth straight up? 2023 2nd plus? There is a non zero chance he plays the full season. If he gets suspended 8 games he rebounds in value and adp. If he misses the season his value doesn’t get much lower because that’s what people are expecting. Seems like worth the gamble for the right price.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I inquired in SF and was told it would require a 1st because he paid a 1st. That www a nonstarter for me, so…
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Wouldn't touch him. Sure there's a non zero chance of him playing this year, but there's also a non zero chance of me winning Mrs America. What you should really be concerned about is that something else might happen between now and next year that will force the NFL to extend his ban for PR purposes as that's much more likely than him playing this season.
Imo the right price is a 4th round pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - I woulda paid a 3rd, but that’s about as high as I was willing to go. Chances are good that in a year or so he’s playing at full capacity and society will have moved on.
He’s still very young.
But like you said - some other skeleton could fall out the closet and derail him again.
No recent trades but do think for the most part he's worth a second in one start QB leagues. Roster space, how much you need a QB, were that second is projected are all factors but what I view as most likely worst case scenario you wait a year for what will be a 28 year old QB whose been consistently in that 25 PPG range on typical 4 points for TD's scoring format and usually hovering in that top 5 area.
I'd add I have him on 3 shorter roster FFPC teams that don't need a QB and I would not give him up right now for a random second. That's me though and how I manage my teams and a few years ago moved to a theory that what I view as a blue chip young players should not be given up for something like a random future second even if they are a QB and you got another blue chip QB already. I'm also a lot more patient then most dynasty owners.
I'd have kept the 1.5.
Williams for sure has better odds of helping you this year and perhaps next but he is constantly hurt or dinged up. Even last year he kind of tanked after his hot start and I believe it was due to issue with his knee. I try not to get into injury prediction business but Williams is not afraid to throw his body around so it's not just "bad luck" IMO.
That seems pretty standard which is why I have ceased using the Trade Block. I find it doesn't spur any kind of reasonable trade discussions. Too many vultures seem to think anyone on the trade block is just one step away from getting released, as that is what they use the trade block for - hoping to hit the jackpot for their waiver wire replacement level end of bench types.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Didn't trade for him but inquired about a deal in a league where I took over an orphan. Previous owner had traded away future picks, including 23 1st + 2nd, and left an older win-now team. I was inquiring about a deal where I would get back my team's 23 picks to see if I could start a rebuild.
Offered Murray, Waller for Watson, Schultz, 23 1st and 23 2nd. Was told that wasn't enough. Got countered with Murray, Montgomery, Hopkins for Watson, Gallup, Shenault, 1.08, 23 2nd. I passed and decided to lean into contending for 2022. Hopefully I can make that 23 pick he values so highly a late one.
robb
Footballguy
About 3-4 weeks ago I was offered Watson for M Thomas, NO wide receiver. I accepted. Every once in a while I get “buyers remorse”, but still like my end of the deal. It’s a 12 player keeper league so I could end up just keeping him for next year as I also have Murray for this year.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I play in a salary cap league and am right up against it before fa has started. As you can assume Ekeler is on the pricey side of my team. It's like the perfect storm for cheese offers.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d accept that deal. Thomas is 29. Watson is 26. Chances are very good you’ll get more value and for longer out of this deal.
not without risk, of course but obviously that’s baked into the price
Spin
Footballguy
He got traded in my superflex league on May 30th:
Team A has Lawrence/Herbert
Team B now has Watson/Fields/Murray
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Birdie048
Footballguy
I am in FULL REBUILD... 12 Team PPR 1 QB League ... Made this trade middle of May this year.... I expected him to miss all of 2022 when this occurred.
I gave QB D Watson, Van Jefferson LAR WR, Amon-Ra DET WR & 3rd (late)
I got in return Wash WR T McLaurin, Indy WR Parris Campbell, 1.12 & 2 x 3rds
FWIW: I moved the 1.12 for Min TE Irv Smith and an early 2023 2nd
and Moved McLaurin, CEH & 2023 2nd for Two 2023 1sts & Bryan Edwards ATL WR
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d take that in a heartbeat, especially with the contract situation.
Ran it thorough a couple calcs and they both prefer the Pittman/Stevenson side even without the 3rd.
Id smash accept, but that’s me. I like Pittman.
Salary cap & contract league changes the calculus significantly, imo. So maybe some of those offers are not as bad as they are probably taking account of your cap savings as an additional asset (but probably still bad depending on the cap % you'd be clearing)
I like the youth package by a lot in a salary cap/contract league.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ok guys question for ya. FFPC 12 team dynasty, NOT superflex, just 1 QB league.
It's the startup draft and you have two options.
Option 1 you can pick one guy out of Chase, Jefferson, or Jonathan Taylor.
Option 2 you get startup picks 9, 16, and a 2023 1st
Which side do you take?
It's the startup draft and you have two options.
Option 1 you can pick one guy out of Chase, Jefferson, or Jonathan Taylor.
Option 2 you get startup picks 9, 16, and a 2023 1st
Which side do you take?
joey
Footballguy
so basically the 1.03 in a startup for the 1.09, 2.04 and a 2023 1st
Man, I love me one of the 3 young studs but that seems like a really good deal to me.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Thoughts on Juju's value right now? Was offered him straight up for Davis Mills in superflex, in a vacuum I think I'd have taken it but roster considerations going forward kind of forced me to counter offer
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think that 90% of the time in a startup draft the team trading up comes out ahead once you plug in the actual players that are selected with the picks, but this would be the exception.
That's something like Swift/Metcalf/2023 1st for one of those guys, which I think is an overpay and not just by a little bit.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I would take option 2 with no hesitation.
I did something similar in a startup last year, ultimately trading 1.1, 2.12, 3.12 (3rd round reversal draft) and 10.1 for 1.10, 2.3, 3.3, 8.2. I drafted Taylor at 1.10, so it worked out exceptionally well.
dipandglide
Footballguy
12 Team, Superflex, PPR
I acquired Gabriel Davis in a trade and have been shopping him. I tried trading him for ASB and was countered Davis/2nd for his ASB/3rd. I don't like projecting future picks this far out. If I had to of ours should fall between 7-12. Davis isn't one of "my guys". I need some opinions. Help?
I acquired Gabriel Davis in a trade and have been shopping him. I tried trading him for ASB and was countered Davis/2nd for his ASB/3rd. I don't like projecting future picks this far out. If I had to of ours should fall between 7-12. Davis isn't one of "my guys". I need some opinions. Help?
dipandglide
Footballguy
Tough one. I love it for the contender. It would depend on my team makeup and conviction if Davis if on that side. I lean KA.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
And not to be lost in this equation is it seems like you still get to keep your original 2nd round pick (2.10, assuming your original pick was the 1.03).
So 3 picks in the top 22 plus a 2023 1st seems like a slam dunk to me.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I think Davis and ARSB are interchangeable personally, meaning if you prefer one to the other then a 1 for 1 swap is completely fair. It sounds like you and this other guy both prefer ARSB though, so he's asking for a little more on top. Is he asking for those picks to be in 2022 or 2023? If I'm reading you right, you're both projected to be second half of each round so that would be a ~ full 1 round increase (as opposed to an early 3rd/late 2nd swap = half round increase). That's a little too much on top to pay IMO.
I wouldn't have an issue with you paying Davis + 3rd for ARSB though. I generally see thirds as great throw-ins to get deals done like this where I have my eye on a guy and want to increase value in small increments. Late 3rds are pure dart throws, but dynasty owners love throwing darts so sell it as that and you may work it out?
JFS171
Footballguy
How do you decide to trade an aging WR, and how do you know if you’re getting enough? I’ve been playing dynasty a while now, and for the most part with WRs, felt like the only time I sold a really good one (for future assets) was when I knew I needed a full rebuild. Otherwise, I was either getting some other star player back or just holding. Stefon Diggs is my current conundrum, though it could also apply to Adams, I think.
To my specific scenario: 12-team Superflex with 22-man rosters, no taxi squad. Start QRRWWWTFFSKD.
I’m the Watson owner, and last year went poorly, but we lottery our top-3 picks so despite finishing second worst, I’m picking 1.4. I don’t expect to compete this year with Watson’s looming suspension and my RBs in rebuild mode. But with the player I add at 1.4 and the player I add with a high pick next year, I’m planning to compete in 2023 and beyond (my QBs are set with Herbert and Watson, and I’m building around them and Lamb - with the looming decision on Diggs).
Diggs is 28 now turning 29 in November. Prior to our draft this year, I’ve been offered something along the lines of 1.3 and 1.12 for Diggs, but is that a wise move? Or is Diggs the type of guy you just let die on your roster? It feels like a lot of pressure to hit on those picks. FWIW, 95% sure 1.1 and 1.2 are Hall and London. But as Chad and Jordan discussed on a show earlier this year related to Adams, the trade value of these older receivers starts to fall off a cliff. So that two firsts now is maybe 1 as he’s 29/30 next year. Maybe it’s not even that? How do you separate the Julio/ Andre Johnson fall off a cliff receiver from the Marvin Harrison catching 100 balls at 34?
To my specific scenario: 12-team Superflex with 22-man rosters, no taxi squad. Start QRRWWWTFFSKD.
I’m the Watson owner, and last year went poorly, but we lottery our top-3 picks so despite finishing second worst, I’m picking 1.4. I don’t expect to compete this year with Watson’s looming suspension and my RBs in rebuild mode. But with the player I add at 1.4 and the player I add with a high pick next year, I’m planning to compete in 2023 and beyond (my QBs are set with Herbert and Watson, and I’m building around them and Lamb - with the looming decision on Diggs).
Diggs is 28 now turning 29 in November. Prior to our draft this year, I’ve been offered something along the lines of 1.3 and 1.12 for Diggs, but is that a wise move? Or is Diggs the type of guy you just let die on your roster? It feels like a lot of pressure to hit on those picks. FWIW, 95% sure 1.1 and 1.2 are Hall and London. But as Chad and Jordan discussed on a show earlier this year related to Adams, the trade value of these older receivers starts to fall off a cliff. So that two firsts now is maybe 1 as he’s 29/30 next year. Maybe it’s not even that? How do you separate the Julio/ Andre Johnson fall off a cliff receiver from the Marvin Harrison catching 100 balls at 34?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I personally like Davis more than ARSB, who won't get nearly the targets he did last year due to injuries and let's not forget who Detroit's QB is this year.
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