Maybe the question should be addressed to that one particular person who made that pick. The point here is that the majority of people are not reaching for those RBs, unless you think some of the players below them have a significantly better chance at succeeding.
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Helu, Carter, Powell, etc; (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Multiple Scores
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Shutout
Footballguy
While I agree with the take on some of the players the OP mentioned, I DO think he has overlooked a couple of important things that lead up to people pushing them up on their draft boards.
-The data the OP listed is historical data and while that is typically useful and all, we have to realize that the NFL has and will be changing a great deal now and in the future. The ideals of solo RBs a decade ago are all but gone today. There are more complimentary systems being run, using different skills sets than ever before and FF leagues now have more flex/PPR situations than they did 10 years ago. In short, things have changed that allow a guy that "wasn't a factor" in leagues a decade ago to be very relevant today.
-The NFL WILL go to an 18 game season. More attrition on the position and FF'ers know what that means; In the near future, Its not that you start the season with SJAX; its that you end with the guy that is putting up his numbers when he wears down.
-Picking out a round and saying that "4th and 5th rounders can't..." is nice if you want to make a stat but not incredibly relevant. Just because those players didn't make it under the systems they went to, on the teams they went to, playing behind the players they played behind, etc, is way too many variable to just categorize players assigned to a round. Michael bush is a 4th rounder who hasn't set the world on fire. But he has shown the ability to produce good FF numbers when he gets the start. And if not for a terrible leg injury, he never would have been a 4th rounder. And its probably safe to say if he goes to, say, the Bengals in FA and they cut ties with Benson, he will probably be a top 18 or so FF RB. See how its just not easy to put them in a box?
Overall, like I said, I'm not excited about Helu and some of the others mentioned but I totally understand people taking the roll of the dice because, even in real life, rookie picks are somewhat of a crap shoot in the draft and, let's face it, if you're gonna gamble and its gonna cost you the exact same amount to place $$ on ANYONE, then there is no better payoff than a RB that strikes it big.
In the last decade or so, I have had three RB "gambles" that paid off huge: Priest Holmes, Terrell Davis, and Arian Foster. Have I missed on many many more than I have hit on? You bet cha. But the misses didn't kill my teams long-terms but the hits sure as heck MADE my teams for a few years at a time.
-The data the OP listed is historical data and while that is typically useful and all, we have to realize that the NFL has and will be changing a great deal now and in the future. The ideals of solo RBs a decade ago are all but gone today. There are more complimentary systems being run, using different skills sets than ever before and FF leagues now have more flex/PPR situations than they did 10 years ago. In short, things have changed that allow a guy that "wasn't a factor" in leagues a decade ago to be very relevant today.
-The NFL WILL go to an 18 game season. More attrition on the position and FF'ers know what that means; In the near future, Its not that you start the season with SJAX; its that you end with the guy that is putting up his numbers when he wears down.
-Picking out a round and saying that "4th and 5th rounders can't..." is nice if you want to make a stat but not incredibly relevant. Just because those players didn't make it under the systems they went to, on the teams they went to, playing behind the players they played behind, etc, is way too many variable to just categorize players assigned to a round. Michael bush is a 4th rounder who hasn't set the world on fire. But he has shown the ability to produce good FF numbers when he gets the start. And if not for a terrible leg injury, he never would have been a 4th rounder. And its probably safe to say if he goes to, say, the Bengals in FA and they cut ties with Benson, he will probably be a top 18 or so FF RB. See how its just not easy to put them in a box?
Overall, like I said, I'm not excited about Helu and some of the others mentioned but I totally understand people taking the roll of the dice because, even in real life, rookie picks are somewhat of a crap shoot in the draft and, let's face it, if you're gonna gamble and its gonna cost you the exact same amount to place $$ on ANYONE, then there is no better payoff than a RB that strikes it big.
In the last decade or so, I have had three RB "gambles" that paid off huge: Priest Holmes, Terrell Davis, and Arian Foster. Have I missed on many many more than I have hit on? You bet cha. But the misses didn't kill my teams long-terms but the hits sure as heck MADE my teams for a few years at a time.
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Fair enough about Vereen, i liked him as a player before the draft started, and had him tied for my 3rd best Rb of this draft. So obviously i think he is the Patriots RB to have. As for the QB's, if Newtons upside is Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham, Demarco Murrays is Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles. More realisticly though, the chance of either reaching those levels is equally slim. So if your drafting Newton thinking your getting Vick, then you might as well draft the RB you like most and hope you get a top 3 RB, they are worth more than the top QB's, More realisitically Newton or Gabbert will end up as Eli or Flaccos, low end QB 1's, and you would be lucky to get that. Now let me ask you, how much "currency" is that in Zealots? What can you get for those guys in a trade? I cant give away Peyton Manning in the Zealots league that own him in, i know he is old, but he likely has 5 years of top 5-7 QB numbers left. Think i would have a problem trading a RB13-24 with 5 years left?
For the record, i never said that all the RB's would outperform all the QB's, nor do i recommend taking any RB you can get over any of the QB's. Just thyat a lottery ticket on a RB is worth more than a lottery ticket on a QB.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I laid out the history of 4th/5th round RBS. That is just the facts. Marion Barber is the only RB taken in Round 1 of Rookie Drafts in the past TEN YEARS who was taken in the 4th/5th round of NFL drafts that had more than slight success. If this doesn't sound like sound advice to avoid that trap it's your choice. I will continue to take the QBS/WRS drafted in the first 2 rounds of NFL drafts over RBS taken in the 4th/5th rounds of NFL drafts. I just hope that there always remain members in my leagues who reach on 97% bust rate RBS in round 1 of my drafts.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I would rather have a QB if that lottery ticket had a 50% chance of hitting over a 3% chance of hitting.
You think the QB's have a 50% chance of hitting? Also, i thought the RB's chance was 9%, what happened to the other 6%? ETA, also, i was refering to all RB's after the top 4( not just the 4th and 5th rounders) in the sentence you quoted me on.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Sorry. Someone brought up it was much more likely for us geeks to pick the good rbs than gms in our rookie drafts. I pulled turner out because he wasn't going in round 1 cause he had LT, Jacobs had tiki, rudi had Dillon. All that stood was mb3 over the past 10 years for his criteria. It still is 9% but also be aware in that guys like hightower, goodson are part of the 9%.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I was referring to cam newton and specifically his draft position. Bradford, stafford, Peyton all spring to mind, so do jemarcus, alex smith,etc
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Just saw your edit. My only criteria I am speaking for is 4th/5th rounders. You won't catch me shying away from Williams,leshore,vareen in drafts, those are the type of players I want on my teams.
Honestly, which group would you put Newton in?Yeah, me too.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I am not a cam fan so more likely jemarcus. With that said I'd say he is at least 10 times more likely to suceed than any of helu,Carter, hunter or Powell.
Honestly, which group would you put Newton in?Yeah, me too.
massraider
Footballguy
The difference is, we KNOW the Panthers will give Cam a shot to reach that upside. He is going to start. Murray may never get a start. I am glad we both play Zealots, so we are using the same example. The Zealots mindset is pretty simple. 'No matter where you draft, take a RB. After about 6 or 7 are gone, take the best WR.' It's dumb, it's not smart thinking, and really, it's antiquated. You CAN win leagues with strong QB and WR play. Most teams run a RBBC, and people are still chasing some mythical Terrell Davis. Zealots, just in my leagues history: Jonathan Dwyer went at top of the 2nd round. Brandon Jackson, Michael Bush, and Chris Henry all went before Bowe and Rice. In that same draft, someone traded a 1st the next year to jump in and swipe Lorenzo Booker. Andre Brown and Bernard Scott both drafted before the "useless" Josh Freeman. Drafting like the sheep in dynasty leagues, you aren't building a team, you are hoping you get lucky with a couple of lottery tickets. To think you have to draft a certain way, because everyone else does, is silly.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
You are cherry picking examples after the fact.B. Jackson and C. Henry were both 2nd round picks in the NFL draft. S. Rice was drafted six spots in front of Henry and 19 in front of Jackson. That same draft had Ginn at 9 and M. Lynch at 12. If you're going to blast someone for taking Chris Henry in front of Sidney Rice, then you should think Ted Ginn should have been drafted in front of Marshawn Lynch.You didn't mention the drafters that took 3rd round back Jamaal Charles over high second round receivers Devin Thomas, James Hardy, and Donnie Avery.It's pretty easy to play the what if game after the fact.
Hey, im with you, and i agree RB's are often overrated in Zealots, however, there is a fine line there too. With the value of a top 20 RB, especially a young one, sometimes it is worth the gamble of a 2nd round pick. The key is finding the guy you think is worth that pick. The only Rb i drafted in the 2nd round of rookie drafts last year was James Starks. Clearly Starks is no superstar, but i would take him over Benn, Golden Tate, Brandon Lafell, or any of the QB"s not named Bradford. Alot also depends on your team. I have been lucky in Zelaots to have built four strong teams, so i can afford to take more risks than a guy who needs a certain player to hit to be competitive. You cant get too carried away because of this, but it certianly makes a difference.Why wont Murray get a chance to start? If he is talented, and proves he is better than the other RB's in Dallas he will get a chance to start. So what that we know Newton is going to get a chance at starting, if he isnt any good it wont matter. Opportunity without talent isnt worth much. The herd mentality is not as bad as people make it out to be. You dont always have to follow it to T, but you will be at a disadvantage of you dont understand it. Plus, there is often a reason why the herd has players valued where they do. Being different just to be different is a lot worse than drafting from the consensus.Im also not against drafting QB's early. I drafted Sam Bradford with the 1.7 last year. So its not that i am against drafting QB's early, its just that i am against taking QB's early in this draft. Fact is, there isnt alot of good bets in this years draft, so i dont mind reaching for a RB lottery ticket a little higher than i normally would. Honestly, after Ingram, Thomas, Williams and Vereen, i wouldnt consider another RB until the end of round 1. Only then would i think about taking Leshoure and Helu. After that i wouldnt touch another RB until the end of round 2 (Powell, Rodgers, Murray and maybe Carter)Not sure where you would take those guys, but if it is much later i would like tosee a list of layer you would take over them.
massraider
Footballguy
No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
Jamaal Charles was going late 1st, early 2nd. He rarely went top 5-8 of rookie picks. I took him at 1.10, I think. Bilal Powell in the 1st? Murray? Come on. These picks don't look too smart to me. And if DeAngelo Williams signs with Miami, as has been talked about for months, Thomas at 1.4 or 1.5 is gonna look pretty stupid too.loose circuits
Footballguy
A few things: you still never responded with who is being "over drafted" and who you would take ahead of them. All i've heard is maybe cam newton, but you don't really like him? Are you saying all 6 QB's 1st & 2nd round QB's should be drafted ahead of Helu, Carter, Powell, Murray, Hunter, etc...I disagree with your assumption that these 4th rounder are like those 4th rounders. If fantasy football has taught me anything it is that the unlikely can happen. Especially in a year where there was so much variance among different RB rankings. Pigeon holing a player because of draft position is ridiculous. Only need to look at QB's who have gone 1st overall to compare. Is Peyton Manning like Jamarcus & Alex Smith? Is there anything similar about them other than being drafted at the same time? Saying 9% of RB's succeed or whatever it is past history. It does not mean that is what is going to happen in the future. There are just too many other factors & variables to be able to conclude anything with any type of certainty. The 1st and most important being an opportunity to get on the field- tough to do anything with no reps in practice or games'Multiple Scores said:
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Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Murrays name has never came out of my mouth. I have insisted on 4-5th round rbs. Baldwin, Torrey smith, Cobb, cam, locker, gabbert should go ahead of hunter, helu, Carter, Powell. HTH,
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I have seen Murray go at 11. I like him and he was a 3rd rounder.
Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
mlball77
Footballguy
This probably isn't the norm, but Murray went in mid-late rd 1 in my league. I felt it was a bit early, but there was a big run on RBs and this owner kept it going.Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
massraider
Footballguy
I would be willing to bet that Murray's ADP in the Zealots format is right around 1.12. He went 1.11 in mine. I took Green at 1.3 and Little at 1.9.This probably isn't the norm, but Murray went in mid-late rd 1 in my league. I felt it was a bit early, but there was a big run on RBs and this owner kept it going.Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Helu 9, Carter 12, Murray 13 adp in zealots. Way too high for all of them. Helu averaging at 9, barforama.
I would be willing to bet that Murray's ADP in the Zealots format is right around 1.12. He went 1.11 in mine. I took Green at 1.3 and Little at 1.9.This probably isn't the norm, but Murray went in mid-late rd 1 in my league. I felt it was a bit early, but there was a big run on RBs and this owner kept it going.Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
Murray has an ADP 13.5 in Zealots so far.I would be willing to bet that Murray's ADP in the Zealots format is right around 1.12. He went 1.11 in mine. I took Green at 1.3 and Little at 1.9.This probably isn't the norm, but Murray went in mid-late rd 1 in my league. I felt it was a bit early, but there was a big run on RBs and this owner kept it going.Who is taking Powell or Murray in the first? I think Sproles or Bush are more likely candidates in Miami.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
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beto
Footballguy
Some solid discussion in this thread.
Key ideas for me
- know how the herd mentality works in your league (i.e. reaching for WRs, RBs)
- scouting is huge (having an idea of the Chris Henry's and Eric Shelton's from the Jamaal Charles' and Marion Barber's)
- what is the difference in risk between WR4, TE1, QB2, and RB7? I'm not sure this is answered
Key ideas for me
- know how the herd mentality works in your league (i.e. reaching for WRs, RBs)
- scouting is huge (having an idea of the Chris Henry's and Eric Shelton's from the Jamaal Charles' and Marion Barber's)
- what is the difference in risk between WR4, TE1, QB2, and RB7? I'm not sure this is answered
loose circuits
Footballguy
Got itso should I trade Arian Foster for CJ Spiller? Surely Spiller must be better since he was a 1st round pick and Foster went undrafted...also, have you ran the 'bust rate' for 2nd & 3rd round WR's? seeing guys like Courtney Roby, Dexter Jackson, etc... in the past doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling either
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I get it. You don't want helpful advice, you choose to be offended by the topic. Got it, get it.
loose circuits
Footballguy
not offended, I just disagree with your premise that NFL draft position makes a differenceLet me know what you find out when you crunch the numbers for 2nd & 3rd round WR's since that is what you are recommending in place. I'm guessing they aren't much better. It actually doesn't really matter to me, but in order for you to do a 'complete' study wouldn't you need to acquire all the evidence you can or are you only looking for stuff that supports your argument?
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Is taking a RB that was drafted in the top 50 of the NFL draft in the middle of the first round really outrageous? So where should Ryan Williams, Daniel Thomas, and Shane Vereen be drafted this year? Don't come back in 3 years and tell us we're ridiculous and cherry pick the one of these three that busts. If Thomas looks stupid at 1.4/1.5, who should the top five picks be? Thomas was arguably a top five talent before he landed in that situation.Your post cherry picked every good receiver and bad running back. That's not fair. Who has taken Bilal Powell in the first round? Or even the second round? I haven't seen it yet. I'm sure there might be one or two cases but that certainly isn't the norm.No, that doesn't fly. Nowhere did I say that all players should correspond to their draft position. And Lynch should have been drafted over Ginn, I am not going to argue that. You are either being intentionally obtuse, or just not getting it. RBs have more value than WRs, I get that. But if you can't see the difference between Lynch and Henry when they came out, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.There are backs that are worth the risk. Reaches that make sense. Chris Henry in the mid-1st of rookie drafts was not one of those risks. I should know, I am the one that drafted him, because I had Lendale. And this was going to "lock up" the Titans backfield for me.'Ramblin Wreck said:
massraider
Footballguy
I do not think top 50 RBs being in the first is outrageous at all. And where the heck did I say that? Try and argue with what I say, OK?The OP was specifically talking about 4/5th rounders. I am speaking in more general terms, but when you see marginal, mid-round RB prospects going before 1st round WRs, and WELL before 1st round QBs, you are in general, making a mistake. I also have no problem with owners passing on higher-drafted WR or QB for a RB they like. Go Deep likes Vereen, feels strong about him. Great. Take him at 1.4 or 1.5, I won't complain. But when I see these RBs go in pretty consistent order as the ADP, that's telling me that people are just blindly taking the next RB on their rookie list, provided by someone else. The guy that takes Helu over Little, or Gabbert, did he want Helu? Or would he have taken LeShoure if he was there? Or Thomas? I am cherry-picking? Fine, add them all up. Will it have been smarter to take a 1st round WR or a 2/3/4th round RB late in the first round? I am gonna guess I come out way, way ahead. Do you really think the results would come out any other way?
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
What is the success rates of the Shanahan second day picks though? Without doing the math, I'm guessing its around 50 percent.
Terrell Davis
O Gary
Mike Anderson
Torrain
Hillis
Mike Bell (undrafted FA)
I used to feel that the second day Denver rookie RB was a borderline late 1st early 2nd round rookie pick (non IDP leagues). On the other hand, I'd ignore most any other RB drafted after NFL round 4 (4 1/2 really) until Rookie round 3. A round 3 rookie pick isnt likely to even make the fantasy roster unless you are in a league with dedicated rookie roster slots.
Ben Gay was the most overhyped never was RB in the history of fantasy and he never made any of my teams.
Terrell Davis
O Gary
Mike Anderson
Torrain
Hillis
Mike Bell (undrafted FA)
I used to feel that the second day Denver rookie RB was a borderline late 1st early 2nd round rookie pick (non IDP leagues). On the other hand, I'd ignore most any other RB drafted after NFL round 4 (4 1/2 really) until Rookie round 3. A round 3 rookie pick isnt likely to even make the fantasy roster unless you are in a league with dedicated rookie roster slots.
Ben Gay was the most overhyped never was RB in the history of fantasy and he never made any of my teams.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I attributed his success more with Alex Gibbs. Has shanahan done it without Gibbs?
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
You've referenced Chris Henry being a mistake to draft over Bowe and Rice. You've said he clearly wasn't in Lynch's class. Chris Henry was a top 50 draft pick in the NFL. He wasn't some run of the mill 5th rounder but you are blaming people for making a mistake drafting him over Bowe and Rice. Using NFL draft position, it would have been much more absurd to draft J. Charles over Devin Thomas or James Hardy. Can't have it both ways. Funny thing... you just mentioned Helu over Little. Little is the consensus #3 WR in rookie drafts but not one "expert" would have put him in their top 7-8 before the Browns took him in the second round. But now fantasy players are geniuses for drafting him high? Were the top 4 backs before the draft not Ingram, Leshoure, Williams/Thomas in that order? The only thing that has changed now is Leshoure is generally drafted behind Williams/Thomas. I don't think Thomas shot up the ADP charts because of his situation with Miami. I don't know very many people that would take Baldwin over Ryan Williams, Daniel Thomas, and Mikel Leshoure. But he's a first round pick and those other three were not. Are you saying you would take Baldwin in the top 4 after Ingram, Julio, and AJ?
Im not agreeing or disagreeing with anything else you said here, but alot of people had Little graded out as a top 5 WR. I had him tied for 3rd with Baldwin and Salas.
Dez
Footballguy
I picked Charles at pick 18 in 2008I picked Gore at pick 13 in 2005S-Greene was pick #9 in 2009
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Why are you twisting leshore, Williams and Thomas in this discussion? This thread is about RB drafted in rounds 4 and 5, not round 2,3,6,7 or UFDA. The reason is because I think specifically helu, Carter, hunter and Powell are being drafted over the cam newton and Jon baldwins of the world and only Jacobs, turner and barber have had descent success over the past 10 years... Only barber of those went high in rookie drafts. Thinking 4 guys this year will all be superstars is foolish. Why is this thread getting pushed so far off track?
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
The three bolded were Top 10 RB's last year. Many of the others have had quality #2/3 seasons or stretches where they have been able to fill in, especially crucial in dynasty play. I don't agree with the original poster. Yes there is some value to be had by letting others roll RB early but that doesn't eliminate the value of late round RB's.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
You don't agree with the op because your reading comprension is horrible. For the last time 4th/5th round ONLY. Those bolded besides turner DO NOT APPLY.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
In your corner we have Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner... for perspective the next would be Timmy Hightower.In my corner we have:
Mike Wallace
DeSean Jackson
Sidney Rice
Steve Smith NYG
Greg Jennings
Vincent Jackson
Anquan Boldin
Chad Johnson
Steve Smith -Panthers
Many others in the mold of :
Eddie Royal
Antonio Bryant
Deion Branch
Late first rounders since I have been seeing Helu/Carter going ahead of Jon Baldwin... Baldwin was the #26 overall, here are guys in the past 10 years around that draft spot:
Reggie Wayne (30 overall)
Roddy White (27 overall)
Santonio Holmes (25 overall)
Bowe (23 overall)
Nicks (29 overall)
Britt (30 overall)
Dez (24 overall)
I'm not even mentioning guys taken in round 2/3 of the NFL draft over 10 years ago who are current players like Terrell Owens and Hines Ward... woops
You asked for the list, you got the list. You just lost your entire argument. It is clear the winner in this duel.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
That's the real question yet to be answered. Gibbs or no Gibbs, I think Shanny has developed the mind set that he doesnt have to spend much on his RBs. Whether its Torrain, a rookie, or some cheap FA, I expect the Redskins to go with an unheralded starter. I also think Shanny still uses a simuliar scouting technique like the Broncos used in Denver and an offense with simuliar blocking schemes. Does this mean he'll have the same success with RBs? No it doesnt. I wouldnt draft Helu in a rookie draft as high as if he was going to Denver a few years ago. The fact that the Redskins traded up factored along with Shanny's history and likelyhood of Portis leaving still makes Helu much more intriguing than any other longshot rookie RB.
loose circuits
Footballguy
those guys didn't go ahead of Baldwin in any of my drafts.
what I meant about draft position, is that stars come from all spots in the draft. The success of guys that were drafted in the 4th and 5th round in previous drafts have absolutely no bearing on whether or not the guys from this draft succeed. They are all in different situations with different opportunities and have different talents. Each individual should be evaluated based off his own situation. There is risk with any of the guys, but sometimes the upside is worth it if you hit on them in a rookie draft
Did you look to see how many WR's were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd that weren't any good? There are over twice as many WR's in NFL than there are RB's so in order to really apply any type of significance to your hypothesis you would need to go back and take a percentage of players that succeeded v failed rather than just cherry picks some names. I'd suggest a much larger sample size of at least 10 years, but don't really care to take the time cause I don't really think the numbers have relevance towards the future. I did get started to see what recent times look like. Over the past 2 years, I see:
2 36 Dexter McCluster WR Mississippi Kansas City Chiefs
2 39 Arrelious Benn WR Illinois Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 60 Golden Tate WR Notre Dame Seattle Seahawks
3 77 Damian Williams WR USC Tennessee Titans
3 78 Brandon LaFell WR LSU Carolina Panthers
3 82 Emmanuel Sanders WR Southern Methodist Pittsburgh Steelers
3 84 Jordan Shipley WR Texas Cincinnati Bengals
3 87 Eric Decker WR Minnesota Denver Broncos
3 88 Andre Roberts WR The Citadel Arizona Cardinals
3 89 Armanti Edwards WR Appalachian State Carolina Panthers
3 90 Taylor Price WR Ohio U. New England Patriots
2 36 Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State Cleveland Browns
2 50 Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia Cleveland Browns
3 82 Derrick Williams WR Penn State Detroit Lions
3 83 Brandon Tate WR North Carolina New England Patriots
3 84 Mike Wallace WR Mississippi Pittsburgh Steelers
3 85 Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly-S.L.O. New York Giants
3 87 Patrick Turner WR USC Miami Dolphins
3 91 Deon Butler WR Penn State Seattle Seahawks
3 99 Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma Chicago Bears
only 1 that is top notch in Mike Wallace and his value has increased dramatically. Depending on where you drafted Emmanuel Sanders & Andre Roberts they probably have similar value. The rest of those guys have not performed up to expectations. Maybe they will soon, but they haven't to date. Drafting a 2nd or 3rd round WR is no better than grabbing a 4th or 5th round RB. Your odds aren't good with either, but that's the beauty of fantasy football. I usually trade most of my picks away for studs, except I saw a very underrated draft this year and acquired picks without really giving up any significant pieces to my team. That's the fun of fantasy football in taking risks with guys you think have ability
Nobody really wins this argument until we find out the end results. A year from now, who will be more valuable? I would have only taken Carter or Helu ahead of most of the guys you mentioned earlier (Gabbert would be way down my list), so pick 2 of Torrey smith, Cobb, cam, locker, or gabbert and we'll compare ADP for dynasty start ups a year from now. Hopefully there are no injuries because that will take the fun out of it.
Another question about your 'theory'
Since Alex Green and Ridley were drafted in the 3rd, should they be drafted ahead of all the 4th and 5th round rookies? According to your 'evidence' they clearly have a better opportunity right?
what I meant about draft position, is that stars come from all spots in the draft. The success of guys that were drafted in the 4th and 5th round in previous drafts have absolutely no bearing on whether or not the guys from this draft succeed. They are all in different situations with different opportunities and have different talents. Each individual should be evaluated based off his own situation. There is risk with any of the guys, but sometimes the upside is worth it if you hit on them in a rookie draft
Did you look to see how many WR's were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd that weren't any good? There are over twice as many WR's in NFL than there are RB's so in order to really apply any type of significance to your hypothesis you would need to go back and take a percentage of players that succeeded v failed rather than just cherry picks some names. I'd suggest a much larger sample size of at least 10 years, but don't really care to take the time cause I don't really think the numbers have relevance towards the future. I did get started to see what recent times look like. Over the past 2 years, I see:
2 36 Dexter McCluster WR Mississippi Kansas City Chiefs
2 39 Arrelious Benn WR Illinois Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 60 Golden Tate WR Notre Dame Seattle Seahawks
3 77 Damian Williams WR USC Tennessee Titans
3 78 Brandon LaFell WR LSU Carolina Panthers
3 82 Emmanuel Sanders WR Southern Methodist Pittsburgh Steelers
3 84 Jordan Shipley WR Texas Cincinnati Bengals
3 87 Eric Decker WR Minnesota Denver Broncos
3 88 Andre Roberts WR The Citadel Arizona Cardinals
3 89 Armanti Edwards WR Appalachian State Carolina Panthers
3 90 Taylor Price WR Ohio U. New England Patriots
2 36 Brian Robiskie WR Ohio State Cleveland Browns
2 50 Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia Cleveland Browns
3 82 Derrick Williams WR Penn State Detroit Lions
3 83 Brandon Tate WR North Carolina New England Patriots
3 84 Mike Wallace WR Mississippi Pittsburgh Steelers
3 85 Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly-S.L.O. New York Giants
3 87 Patrick Turner WR USC Miami Dolphins
3 91 Deon Butler WR Penn State Seattle Seahawks
3 99 Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma Chicago Bears
only 1 that is top notch in Mike Wallace and his value has increased dramatically. Depending on where you drafted Emmanuel Sanders & Andre Roberts they probably have similar value. The rest of those guys have not performed up to expectations. Maybe they will soon, but they haven't to date. Drafting a 2nd or 3rd round WR is no better than grabbing a 4th or 5th round RB. Your odds aren't good with either, but that's the beauty of fantasy football. I usually trade most of my picks away for studs, except I saw a very underrated draft this year and acquired picks without really giving up any significant pieces to my team. That's the fun of fantasy football in taking risks with guys you think have ability
Nobody really wins this argument until we find out the end results. A year from now, who will be more valuable? I would have only taken Carter or Helu ahead of most of the guys you mentioned earlier (Gabbert would be way down my list), so pick 2 of Torrey smith, Cobb, cam, locker, or gabbert and we'll compare ADP for dynasty start ups a year from now. Hopefully there are no injuries because that will take the fun out of it.
Another question about your 'theory'
Since Alex Green and Ridley were drafted in the 3rd, should they be drafted ahead of all the 4th and 5th round rookies? According to your 'evidence' they clearly have a better opportunity right?
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I was responding to the comments about 2nd round running backs (Chris Henry, for example).
That's because you are forgetting this is a Zealots only discussion. It also applies to outliers in every other draft.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I already showed that both carter and helu went at 9 and Baldwin 13 and cam 20 in your hyperactive sister league. It wasn't "your" particular draft. Somehow you say this is now zealots only. There are many instances of helu ahead of Baldwin in non zealots leagues in threads where people posts their drafts. I posted way more than enough information, went out of my way to post all the WRs even though it's common knowledge to the majority of fbgers. If you keep trying to twist and manipulate I suggest fact checking first because the both of you aren't looking too sharp.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
To answer your question with another question about Alex green. I am up right now in a draft. Helu already went at 12 and Carter at 13 to other teams. Now it's my turn at pick 35, debating between Green, Rudolph, and Robert Quinn. Leaning towards either the TE or DE. I am considering Green because I know if one day injuries occur to the other Packer RBs I can flip Alex Green for a 1st rounder to one of the teams who blew picks on helu or carter. What would you do?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
It is so nice of you to point out the flaws and bad habits of your fellow drafters. Late round running backs are over-drafted in most leagues is not news to most. I don’t see the point in ridiculing your opponents for their picks. My best advice to you would be to keep quiet and take advantage. After all you are still in competition with your league mates even if it is a free league.
I really hope that you’re rewarded for your efforts and someone grabs Balwin or Cam Newton in front of you and leaves you with nothing but 5th round RB in your next rookie draft.
I really hope that you’re rewarded for your efforts and someone grabs Balwin or Cam Newton in front of you and leaves you with nothing but 5th round RB in your next rookie draft.
plastik
Footballguy
You're really being a bit ridiculous, especially with the bolded statement above. Many more WRs are drafted in the NFL draft and teams field more WRs in games, so naturally there will be a higher number of successful WRs in rounds 2-3 than RBs in rounds 4-5. Also, You've again cherry-picked your data by not including the busts from these rounds and looking the percentage successful WRs amongst those drafted in rounds 2-3.As for the comment that RBs drafted in rounds 4-5 bust 91% of the time, even if true, it is based on past drafts that have NO BEARING on the current one. Things change over the years, positional emphasis and value changes, and the depth of positions effects draft position. This year D-linemen that may have been taken in the first round other years went in rounds 2 and 3 because of the great number of talented prospects available. By this same line of thinking RBs that might have gone in the 3rd fell to the fourth because teams knew they could land one of MANY serviceable backs in the 4th. And your insistence that your argument only applies to rounds 4-5 renders it particularly faulty, as if to suggest that being drafted at 4.01 rather than 3.32, or maybe 5.32 rather than 6.01 is an inherently worse indicator of potential success. I don't buy it.
And going back to your argument on WRs, lets look at 2-3 round WRs. I'll start with 2009 since they've had some time to develop and I'll list them as either a "Success" or "Currently Under-performing" based purely on my subjective evaluation of whether or not I'd have been happy drafting them in the late first or early second round of a dynasty rookie draft (I don't have time to make it a more precise study).
2009
Success: Mike Wallace (1)
Currently Under-performing: Brian Robiskie, Mohammed massaquoi, Derrick Williams, Brandon Tate, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, Juaquin Iglesias (8)
2008
Success: Jordy Nelson, Eddie Royal, Desean Jackson, Mario Manningham (4)
Currently Under-performing: Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Jerome Simpson, Malcom Kelly, Limas Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Earl Bennett, Early Doucet, Harry Douglas, Andre Caldwell (11)
2007
Success: Sydney Rice, Steve Smith, James Jones, Mike Walker (4)
Currently Under-performing: Dwayne Jarrett, Jacoby Jones, Yamon Figures, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, Paul Williams, Johnny Lee Higgins (7)
2006
Success: Greg Jennings (1)
Currently Under-performing: Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagen, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid (7)
2005
Success: Vincent Jackson (1)
Currently Under-performing: Reggie Brown, Mark Bradley, Roscoe Parrish, Terrence Murphy, Courtney Roby, Chris Henry, Brandon Jones (7)
2004
Success: (0)
Currently Under-performing: Devery Henderson, Darrius Watts, Keary Colbert, Derrick Hamilton, Bernard Berrian, Devard Darling (6)
In 2004-2009 I count 11 successful players out of 57 WRs taken in rounds 2-3, about 19%. While perhaps a better success rate than 4-5 round RBs, not so lopsided a picture as you've painted.
Also in the first round there have been plenty of busts which you don't list, and why limit it to the 'late first'? As busts (or at least players I'd be disappointed in drafting where they were going in rookie drafts) I count: Tedd Ginn, Robert Meachem (perhaps, though hes performed at times), Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton (might redeem himself), Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans (a few good years, but little value now), Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, Charles Rogers, Bryant Johnson... In fact, if you took this list and in 2009 had suggested that from 2004 to 2007 16 out of the 20 (80%) 1st round WRs busted, you might have claimed that based on recent history only one of Hayward-Bey, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, and Britt would be successful. Draft position isn't meaningless, but it isn't as cut and dry as you are suggesting in your argument agains 4-5 round RBs.
The discussion of drafting later round RBs ahead of earlier round QBs and WRs is a good one to have, but to limit it to specific rounds makes little sense and you should really be a bit more hesitant to disregard the opinions of others while claiming victory of your position based on cherry-picked data.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
WINNING
loose circuits
Footballguy
this is good stuff and I pretty much agree with everything you said. You are being mighty generous listing Royal, Nelson, and James Jones as not underperforming. Royal's value is down to peanuts now and I'm not sure John Fox will fix that while Jordy & James haven't really ever done anything
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