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Jeremy Hill will be the #1 fantasy RB this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
MattFancy
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
And McCoy (going by your statement of "will be the focus of their offenses). Any player in the league can have questions but there should be no doubt that Forte and Shady will be the focus of the offenses. If things go well with the Bills team as a whole, Shady is going to be run A LOT>
Remember, I said 1st rnd.The problem with Forte:
Mileage, age, and
Cutler, not as good of a situation as all the RBs rated higher. Teams will be forcing Cutler to beat them.
McCoy: can anyone name his QB?
Also, plenty of mileage on those legs.
Yeah, they will give it to him, but with 8 in the box, not nearly the O- line he had in Philly... well, you get the picture.
Just not as good a situation as all the others mentioned.
Forte and McCoy are both 2nd rnd picks, but they are behind the other 7 imo.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
For Forte:
He's 3 months older than Lynch. Lynch also has more carries. Cutler was bad last season and Forte was still successful. Will he have 100 catches this season? No. But he'll still catch 60-70 and is easily their main RB.
Good, you can draft Forte over Lynch, but you'll be in the minority.Edit to add: Forte's value this year is as a RB2 behind one of those others above, or as a RB1 after you've selected one of the top 3 WRs in rnd 1.
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nittanylion
Footballguy
I may be alone on this island, but in 16-Team PPR Leagues, based on his talent, surrounding cast, and offensive scheme, Gio Bernard can put up borderline RB1 #'s. I think the Bengals will be getting the ball to both Hill and Bernard quite a bit, and I don't think that hurts Hill's #'s at all.
VaTerp
Footballguy
McCoy's QB will likely be the same QB Jamal Charles had when he finished top 4 in 2010. Yes, Cassell sucks and that was the last year he performed at even a decent level but there are numerous examples of top 5 FF seasons for RBs with subpar QBs.
No doubt QB play is a concern for Shady but Buffalo has a potentially dominant D, other weapons on offense in Watkins, Harvin, Clay, etc. and figure to rely heavily on the run and short pass game. I think the Bills will be able to stay in games and McCoy is gone to have the opportunity to be a top 5 FF RB again.
As for Forte, I'm not as high on him but the guy has consistently produced just about every year and is one of the best RBs in the league out of the backfield. Again, I like Hill but there's a strong argument for these 2 guys to be taken before him.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Forsett and gore huh?BassNBrew said:
SWC
Bromigo
brocollihans i do not think forte will be that great because the bears d is probably going to stink and they are playing in a division with the pack the lions and the queens should be better this year so i think they will be behind a lot wwhich is never good for a rb o for sure you betcha he might have a good game here or there but i do not think it is going to be a title year for the old matt get louder forte bromigos and you can take that to the bank
Ilov80s
Footballguy
When I see him run, I see someone special. Size, speed, vision, explosive. He looks like the total package.
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Yeah...when you take into account that conventional wisdom rarely holds for running backs, I think Hill is in for a monster year. I think he is a lock for around 1500 yards and 10 tds plus 30 - 40 rec. That is a stud rb, especially considering that you can get him in the 2nd or 3rd round...Having Gio is a boon in my opinion because he will stay fresh. Personally, if I got Hill, I would be certain to also pick up Gio though. He is running in the 5th - 6th round range, I think it is worth it to have both. In ppr, there is a pretty good chance you could field both and lock in at least 25 points for your starting rbs, something most teams will not be able to do on a weekly basis.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Same as most others are saying, in PPR, he will not catch enough passes to be number 1.
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Nobody knows who will be number one. Number one is going to be a guy who simply dominates and scores a ton of tds, regardless of how many passes are caught. Hill certainly has a chance to be that guy, especially if AJ Green and Eifert are healthy because the drives will be longer.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
when you dont catch many passes, you will need to score like 20 TDs to be number one as a PPR RB
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I could easily see Hill catching 50 balls this year.
jurb26
Footballguy
He caught 27 last year even not playing that much for half the year. How many would a guy like Hill have to catch to truly be in the running in your opinion?
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just to give you an idea, the RBs that finished top 2 over the last 4 years have caught:
53,87, 70,52, 40, 40, 76, 48
jurb26
Footballguy
That's fair. Peterson is the best RB of this generation so his talent is an edge. Still, Hill's talent is pretty established at this point. I like the motivated Peterson angle a lot. I do however think there are concerns with him that Hill doesn't have. That being his age and the absence last year. Peterson isn't human so maybe these concerns are of no circumstance. Still, he's 30 and didn't play pretty much all last year. That's got to be on your mind.
I'm not sure that Minn is really going to emphasize Peterson in the passing game more to be honest. McKinnon is there and he does very well in that role. If I were to guess it, I'd project Hill for more receptions.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
40 seems to legitimately be within reach. I have him projected at 34 right now - but as I said I don't project him as the No. 1 RB.
Any time Norv has had a back capable of being a three-down guy, he's reliably hit him up for 50-60 receptions a season. Hill has zero chance of outreceiving AP barring injury to the latter.
jurb26
Footballguy
Well, if there's ZERO chance....
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Looking at 2010-2014, a RB needs a minimum of 296 points (standard) to finish as the #1 RB. The average for the #1 RB has been 310. The lowest was Rice at 296 in 2011 and highest was Foster at 329 in 2010. Guys did it in a variety of ways. Murray got their on sheer volume (450 touches none of the other guys hit 400). That was by far the most touches of any #1 RB. Some did it by catching a lot of passes. Rice had 76 receptions and over 700 receiving yards which was the most for any #1 RB. Foster and Charles got their with huge TD numbers of 17 and 18. Charles only touched the ball 319 times that year (he scored on 0.06% of his touches).Peterson got there by rushing for over 2,000 yards and a crazy 6 ypc average.
There are lots of paths to the #1 RB. Hill won't take the Ray Rice path of catching 70+ balls. He won't get the Murray 400+ touch path either. So his options are to get a lot more carries and keeps his ypc in the 5-6 range and ends up with approaching 2000 yards like Peterson. If his ypc improved to 5.3 and he got 350 caries, that would get him to 1,850 yards which might be enough. That is a huge jump in touches though. Last year he scored on 0.03% of his touches. It would take a 30% increase in touches and a doubling of touchdowns per touch for him to reach 19 TDs.
Or I suppose some kind of average of all those guys:
323 carries 1,641 rushing yards/61 receptions 526 receiving yards 15.6 TDs
I love the talent, but I don't see how he gets the volume in rushes or receptions to reach #1 RB unless Bernard misses most of the year.
There are lots of paths to the #1 RB. Hill won't take the Ray Rice path of catching 70+ balls. He won't get the Murray 400+ touch path either. So his options are to get a lot more carries and keeps his ypc in the 5-6 range and ends up with approaching 2000 yards like Peterson. If his ypc improved to 5.3 and he got 350 caries, that would get him to 1,850 yards which might be enough. That is a huge jump in touches though. Last year he scored on 0.03% of his touches. It would take a 30% increase in touches and a doubling of touchdowns per touch for him to reach 19 TDs.
Or I suppose some kind of average of all those guys:
323 carries 1,641 rushing yards/61 receptions 526 receiving yards 15.6 TDs
I love the talent, but I don't see how he gets the volume in rushes or receptions to reach #1 RB unless Bernard misses most of the year.
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VaTerp
Footballguy
I don't see anyone really questioning Hill's ability or draft value. This thread is about the likelihood of him being the #1RB in FF this year. I still think many are discounting Bernard's presence too much. Again, the guy put up over a 1,000 total yards and 7 Tds last year while missing 3 games. The post above says Bernard is likely to put up good numbers of his own and be worth a 5th round investment, which suggests a top 25-30 finish for him.
Are there any examples of the #1FF RB sharing the same backfield with another guy who finished top 25 or even top 30?
ETA- I just did a quick check going back to 2000. In PPR scoring the only time the #1RB had another RB in the top 34 was 2008 when Deangelo Williams finished #1 and J. Stewart was 24th. They combined for over 2500 total yards and 30 TDs that year. Stewart had 882 of those yards and 10 TDs. Jake Delhomme started all 16 games at QB that year and threw for less than 3300 yards with only 414 attempts and 15 TDs.
The only other times a #1RB had a teamate even in the top 50 was LT2 in 2006 with Turner at 50th (550 yards, 2 Tds, and 3 receptions), Faulk in 2001 with Candidate at 35th (595, 6, and 17), and Faulk again in 2000 with Justin Watson at 46th (305, 4, 10).
So unless the Bengals are going to replicate the 2008 Panthers by scoring nearly 30 rushing TDs (SEA led NFL last year with 20) and having Dalton throwing the ball only 25 times a game I just don't see the volume of touches for Hill to finish #1.
Of course anything can happen and I loved what I saw from Hill last season but I don't see any way he finishes #1 barring a long term injury to Bernard. For those of you who think Hill has a legitimate shot at finishing #1 what are your projections for Bernard and Dalton?
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jurb26
Footballguy
Currently I have Hill projected for;280 carries, 1360 yds, 14 TDs
45 targets, 32 receptions, 235 yds, 1 TD
1595 total yds, 15 TDs
249.5 standard, 281.5 PPR
jurb26
Footballguy
My Cincinnati projections for the notably players people probably care about. I have others that nobody cares about which would be why the passing totals don't add up. Dalton;
510 attempts, 331 completions, 3682 yds, 21 TDs, 15 Ints
Hill;
280 carries, 1360 yds, 14 TDs
45 targets, 32 receptions, 235 yds, 1 TD
Bernard;
130 carries, 513 yds, 4 TDs
65 targets, 45 receptions, 328 yds, 2 TDs
Green;
133 targets, 83 receptions, 1245 yds, 10 TDs
M. Jones;
85 targets, 60 receptions, 815 yds, 4 TDs
Sanu;
50 targets, 30 receptions, 339 yds, 1 TD
Eifert;
80 targets, 50 receptions, 425 yds, 3 TDs
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The problem I always have with people ahowing me bernard's numbers from last year is the fact that bernard was a bell cow for the first part of the season. Those numbers are somewhat inflated.from what he should be this year compared to hill. Hill could finish number 1, he has the skills. It would require him to take a larger piece of the 3rd down pie though in my opinion. He looks good in the receiving game and pass blocking, it could happen. You also gotta love how hue jackson said he wants hill to "embrace the hype"
As it is though, I like him for a top 5 finish in standard and top 10 ppr. Not number 1 though
As it is though, I like him for a top 5 finish in standard and top 10 ppr. Not number 1 though
VaTerp
Footballguy
I think Bernards will be north of 50 receptions but look like quality projections to me. As noted above this puts Hill about 30 points below the avg RB1 numbers over the last 5 years but would put him right there in top 3 range.
True but even if you look at the last 6 games of the year when Hill was established as the feature RB, Bernard was still on pace for almost 160 carries and 56 receptions. So his numbers from last year in 13 games match up pretty well with his 16 game projection as a complimentary RB for the Bengals this year. Of course you can argue that Hill will only get better, and a larger piece of the pie, in his 2nd season but let's not forget that Bernard is just entering his 3rd season and has room to improve himself. Jackson has done his share of talking him up as well.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter all that much. Like most, I was extremely impressed with Hill for the 2nd half of last season and again, an argument can me made, that he was the best runner in football over the last 9 weeks of the season. He has the ability to finish #1 but a healthy Bernard will have more than a large enough role to keep that from happening.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
Anyone still worried 60/40 split? Im not!!! Lol.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Jack White
Footballguy
About 3 receptions per game would give him a shot. And not all receptions come on third-and-long.
Buzzbait
Footballguy
No. Dalton's #s last year weren't down so much because of injuries to Jones & Eifert (although it obviously contributed some) as much as Hugh Jackson becoming the OC and focusing on the run. I don't see that changing at all this year especially now that Hill has a year under his belt and has shown what he can do. Dalton will be asked to manage and not blow a game.
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
He went 1.01 in a friends and family league this weekend...
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I would only take Hill if he fell to 3rd round. Way overvalued IMO.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
im taking him at 2:3 in a 12 team PPR. Starting my draft with D.Thomas and Hill
georg013
Footballguy
High expectations for Hill. Got my wagon hitched and ready to roll over my opponents. Lots of ridiculous hate flowing in until the haters were silenced by the revelation that Gio won't be used nearly as much as they had wished (and hoped). Not concerned with how others view him. The guy is BEAST. Period. Top 3 RB. Likely top dog. BOOM!
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I am not sure if this is relevant or anecdotal, but over the past 10 years, only 1 RB who was 28 yo or older at the start of the season has finished as a top 5 RB (Tiki in 2005). AP, Charles, Lynch, Forte and Forsett will all be 28 yo or older at the start of the season.
ETA: at the start of the season
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Check my work, but I'm pretty sure Forte was 28 at the start of last season. Not sure if there are others, too, but that one stuck out.
Upon further review, looks like Lynch was, too. And looking back, there are more. So, this isn't a thing.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Forte was born 12/10/86, so he was 27 at the start of the NFL season. You are correct about Lynch (my bad). He was born 4/22/86, so he was 28 yo at the start of the season. I do not see any others but let me know. If my numbers are correct then there is a 4% chance an RB 28 yo or older will finish in the top 5. Again, I do not know if this is relevant or anecdotal.
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