New FBG Feature - What Worked, What Didn’t, and What It Means for 2025 (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

I love this from our Dan Hindery. What Worked, What Didn’t, and What It Means for 2025

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-what-worked-what-didnt-what-it-means-for-2025

Please add insights you've seen from this year with a focus on how they can be used for next season.

 

[Scoresman]

Fantastic article. I do a similar analysis at the end of each year.

For me, drafting Tyreek Hill in round 1 (or paying up in auction) is what did me in for those leagues. My strategy was to target him as the safest first round pick. I dont think I was wrong there, but one thing I did NOT look at was the MIA QB situation after Tua. That should've been a bit of a red flag especially because I do consider Tua an ongoing injury risk.

 

[-OZ-]

Sneaky Sharp?
Playoff Advance Rates by Drafted Player
PLAYER POSITION TEAM PLAYOFFS
Michael Penix Jr. QB 63.6%

Signed, The Penix Mightier, league 0115 (tied for 1st)

 

[Joe Bryant]

Fantastic article. I do a similar analysis at the end of each year.

For me, drafting Tyreek Hill in round 1 (or paying up in auction) is what did me in for those leagues. My strategy was to target him as the safest first round pick. I dont think I was wrong there, but one thing I did NOT look at was the MIA QB situation after Tua. That should've been a bit of a red flag especially because I do consider Tua an ongoing injury risk.

Thanks. I love some of the "looking back to see forward" type stuff.

 

[zamboni]

Great article indeed. Totally agree with Wood in his comment there: "I believe that's one of the perennial lessons: fade the pervasive winning strategy from the prior year. I'm sure 2025 will be RB-heavy, and WRs will be treated like a fungible commodity, so it's likely time to refocus on drafting elite receivers."

We as a fantasy community often anchor ourselves to the previous year. Seems like it was an unusually low injury-filled year for top RBs not named CMC, and perhaps an overly high injury-filled year for WRs. I would not want to bank on the aging uber-stud RBs like Henry and Barkley next year: 1) staying fully healthy and 2) performing at such a high level. But that's me - I wouldn't fault anyone for thinking lightning could strike one more time.

 

[Grid71]

I love this from our Dan Hindery. What Worked, What Didn’t, and What It Means for 2025

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-what-worked-what-didnt-what-it-means-for-2025

Please add insights you've seen from this year with a focus on how they can be used for next season.

Enjoyed the analysis. Thank you.

Could we get a best ball breakdown similar to this? James posts a bunch on X but would like to see content here.

• Player % who helped BB teams advance to round 2
• Team structure advance rates 2-6-8-2 vs 3-6-6-3 etc
• Draft position metrics. BBM winners have all been 2nd half draft picks. Has that shifted with Chase blowing up

 

[jobarules]

What didn't work: Drafting WRs in 1st round

 

[Joe Bryant]

I love this from our Dan Hindery. What Worked, What Didn’t, and What It Means for 2025

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-what-worked-what-didnt-what-it-means-for-2025

Please add insights you've seen from this year with a focus on how they can be used for next season.

Enjoyed the analysis. Thank you.

Could we get a best ball breakdown similar to this? James posts a bunch on X but would like to see content here.

• Player % who helped BB teams advance to round 2
• Team structure advance rates 2-6-8-2 vs 3-6-6-3 etc
• Draft position metrics. BBM winners have all been 2nd half draft picks. Has that shifted with Chase blowing up

Thanks. We don't have the same ability to dive into the details on best ball as we do on our own leagues. But we can think about something there for the future with Best Ball.

 

[Joe Bryant]

What didn't work: Drafting WRs in 1st round

Ja'Marr Chase would like a word...

But yes, I hear you.

 

[BassNBrew]

Any chance @Adam Harstad wants to take a dive into this data and look at the advance rates based on teams that draft the best value relative to ADP?

I suspect that might be a bigger takeaway than "I believe that's one of the perennial lessons: fade the pervasive winning strategy from the prior year. I'm sure 2025 will be RB-heavy, and WRs will be treated like a fungible commodity, so it's likely time to refocus on drafting elite receivers."

 

[Runkle]

Great article indeed. Totally agree with Wood in his comment there: "I believe that's one of the perennial lessons: fade the pervasive winning strategy from the prior year. I'm sure 2025 will be RB-heavy, and WRs will be treated like a fungible commodity, so it's likely time to refocus on drafting elite receivers."

We as a fantasy community often anchor ourselves to the previous year. Seems like it was an unusually low injury-filled year for top RBs not named CMC, and perhaps an overly high injury-filled year for WRs. I would not want to bank on the aging uber-stud RBs like Henry and Barkley next year: 1) staying fully healthy and 2) performing at such a high level. But that's me - I wouldn't fault anyone for thinking lightning could strike one more time.

Idk, overall one of the themes I kept hearing over the summer was that defensive schemes in the NFL were adjusting to the types of pass-heavy offenses that were abundant the last 4 years or so, so the swing toward the running game seemed to be where the NFL was headed. Certainly there is a draft day strategy of zigging when others zag, but overall you also have to follow the trends of NFL offenses. If all the teams are moving back to focus on the running game, you just have to play along in FF... Obviously seeking value at WR when it's there but if RBs are going to be scoring the points it doesn't seem like 'just do the opposite of last year' captures the whole situation.

 

[Mr.Pack]

I'm a case study on one, cocking off after winning 3 years in a row, at the auction. Two not being flexible.

I shot my mouth off big time at our auction, yes it came back to bite me in the ***.

I was extremely stubborn and took a MAJOR risk on 3 players and all 3 cost me this year.

Spent:
Breece Hall $56
Christian McCaffery $89
Tyreek Hill $89

$234 of my $300 Salary cap on three players, and all three crapped the bed.

I did make a flurry of trades midseason that got me to within 8pts of the final Playoff Seed, so I worked my *** off to get there but just fell short.

 

[Desert_Power]

I'm a case study on one, cocking off after winning 3 years in a row, at the auction. Two not being flexible.

I shot my mouth off big time at our auction, yes it came back to bite me in the ***.

I was extremely stubborn and took a MAJOR risk on 3 players and all 3 cost me this year.

Spent:
Breece Hall $56
Christian McCaffery $89
Tyreek Hill $89

$234 of my $300 Salary cap on three players, and all three crapped the bed.

I did make a flurry of trades midseason that got me to within 8pts of the final Playoff Seed, so I worked my *** off to get there but just fell short.

I always go studs and duds in my auction, where all the participants are based in Charlotte. Coming off a repeat I slightly eclipsed our record to get CMC for $72. Still snuck into the playoffs the last week, but it was a grind.

That is a really strong draft, sometimes it just doesn't work out.

 

[dwarfboy]

What didn't work: Drafting WRs in 1st round

I went Jamar Chase/Justin Jefferson at 12/13 and that certainly worked. I admit Tyreek Hill was a problem but I'd have been also been happy with Amon Ra St. Brown; and even AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua were solid when healthy. I'll be taking WR early again if the value is there.