***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

[kylechoffman]

Next week is going to be brutal. NO, Pitt, Hou, Indy on byes. Moreno done (not that many drafted him), Vick has broken ribs, Maclin is probably out with a shoulder issue. Hope that cut line is low.

Can anyone pull the number of teams without NO, PIT, HOUS, INDY players? I assume there is a high count of teams with multiple players from these squads which may impact the cut line.

I have Ben (kolb only other qb), Wallace, A Brown, L Moore, Tamme (Came through for me in week 10!)and Hous D out (23 man team) so clearly im impacted and dont expect to survive.

 

[WisWolvrns]

that post will probably come out after this week's purge of teams

 

[rustycolts]

Just to update myself...I would have squeaked by the cut line this week had I not been cut in week 3. Finished with 113.1.

Again, would have gotten by.Finished with 127.35.

Again would have gotten by.Finished with 154.9.

And, again.Finished with 138.15.ETA: Had I made it through (out in week 3), I would have used 27 of my 30 players. The only guys I would not have used yet are Danny Amendola, Evan Moore and Harry Douglas.

Would have made it again.Finished with 186.05.Still at 27 of my 30 players contributing.

You do realize this is probably true of a lot of teams. Too bad the point isn't to make it every week except 1.

Correct. GDogg, you're torturing yourself for no reason. Yours is just 1 of 3,157 entries that have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

I absolutely understand that.And, one of 3,157 makes me feel worse, actually. It's fewer entries than I thought.Again, this was to keep myself updated each week. If it bothers others in this thread, my apologies. While others obviously find it annoying (which is pretty odd), I don't understand how anyone can't play the "what if?" game. I'm just doing it in this thread because it's the easiest place for me to keep quoting myself while I read through the thread anyway. Like many of you, I keep following the contest even after I'm eliminated for the discussion.

I doubt it bothers very many folks,this thread has been pretty user friendly over the years.So keep it up if you want.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Just to update myself...I would have squeaked by the cut line this week had I not been cut in week 3. Finished with 113.1.

Again, would have gotten by.Finished with 127.35.

Again would have gotten by.Finished with 154.9.

And, again.Finished with 138.15.ETA: Had I made it through (out in week 3), I would have used 27 of my 30 players. The only guys I would not have used yet are Danny Amendola, Evan Moore and Harry Douglas.

Would have made it again.Finished with 186.05.Still at 27 of my 30 players contributing.

You do realize this is probably true of a lot of teams. Too bad the point isn't to make it every week except 1.

Correct. GDogg, you're torturing yourself for no reason. Yours is just 1 of 3,157 entries that have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

I absolutely understand that.And, one of 3,157 makes me feel worse, actually. It's fewer entries than I thought.Again, this was to keep myself updated each week. If it bothers others in this thread, my apologies. While others obviously find it annoying (which is pretty odd), I don't understand how anyone can't play the "what if?" game. I'm just doing it in this thread because it's the easiest place for me to keep quoting myself while I read through the thread anyway. Like many of you, I keep following the contest even after I'm eliminated for the discussion.

I doubt it bothers very many folks,this thread has been pretty user friendly over the years.So keep it up if you want.

...and who cares if it does bother some. They can scroll past it if that's the case.

 

[Balco]

Oof. Matt Schaub owner here.

Luckily, I selected 2 qb's, and made sure Schaub's counterpart was very durable. . . . Matthew Stafford. I am sure he will remain healthy.

I have learned alot each year I have done this league. And I have gone farther than any other season. I always had 3 qb's, but I just couldn't make it work this year. Was working well, although I had to sweat a poor performance by Schaub on Stafford's bye.

Things I have learned:

- 4 kickers are perfect. Make sure they all have different byes. Google them to make sure they have secure jobs. And take the cheapest ones possible. It works out great.

- Don't forget tight ends. I got 3 this year, and 2 (Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernadez) have been great. Lance Kendricks, not so much. The 1.5 per reception is often overlooked but very important.

- 4 defenses is a good idea too. I took 3 this year all for $2. Has worked okay, not great.

- Take fliers on cheap, talented young players, not veterans with little upside. I nabbed Antonio Brown this way, and unfortunately, also broke the rule by selecting Bernard Berrian. Next season, when I fill out my roster it will be with cheap 2nd and 3rd year players who are blocked by injury prone or ineffective vets.

 

[kylechoffman]

Does that count for cobb individually? Just checked and looks like a no.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

10:00 into the game: 10.6 from Jennings and 5.8 from Harvin.

It's a new ESPN 30 ro 30: Daring to Dream, The Tennessee_ATO Story.

 

[FUBAR]

Oof. Matt Schaub owner here.

Luckily, I selected 2 qb's, and made sure Schaub's counterpart was very durable. . . . Matthew Stafford. I am sure he will remain healthy.

I have learned alot each year I have done this league. And I have gone farther than any other season. I always had 3 qb's, but I just couldn't make it work this year. Was working well, although I had to sweat a poor performance by Schaub on Stafford's bye.

Things I have learned:

- 4 kickers are perfect. Make sure they all have different byes. Google them to make sure they have secure jobs. And take the cheapest ones possible. It works out great.

- Don't forget tight ends. I got 3 this year, and 2 (Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernadez) have been great. Lance Kendricks, not so much. The 1.5 per reception is often overlooked but very important.

- 4 defenses is a good idea too. I took 3 this year all for $2. Has worked okay, not great.

- Take fliers on cheap, talented young players, not veterans with little upside. I nabbed Antonio Brown this way, and unfortunately, also broke the rule by selecting Bernard Berrian. Next season, when I fill out my roster it will be with cheap 2nd and 3rd year players who are blocked by injury prone or ineffective vets.

I'm in the same boat with Stafford/Schaub, will just have to hope for the best. I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I'm not worried about having each of my 4 kickers with different byes. I'll take my chances with 2 for a week or if it's early, 3 can have the same bye. I'd rather ensure I get value. Same rule with Defenses, although there's no concern of a Team D losing its job.

I like having 3 upper tier TEs. Pettigrew, Gresham, and Daniels has worked alright so far. Should have kept Graham in.

 

[apalmer]

Does that count for cobb individually? Just checked and looks like a no.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Just to update myself...I would have squeaked by the cut line this week had I not been cut in week 3. Finished with 113.1.

Again, would have gotten by.Finished with 127.35.

Again would have gotten by.Finished with 154.9.

And, again.Finished with 138.15.ETA: Had I made it through (out in week 3), I would have used 27 of my 30 players. The only guys I would not have used yet are Danny Amendola, Evan Moore and Harry Douglas.

Would have made it again.Finished with 186.05.Still at 27 of my 30 players contributing.

You do realize this is probably true of a lot of teams. Too bad the point isn't to make it every week except 1.

Correct. GDogg, you're torturing yourself for no reason. Yours is just 1 of 3,157 entries that have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

I absolutely understand that.And, one of 3,157 makes me feel worse, actually. It's fewer entries than I thought.Again, this was to keep myself updated each week. If it bothers others in this thread, my apologies. While others obviously find it annoying (which is pretty odd), I don't understand how anyone can't play the "what if?" game. I'm just doing it in this thread because it's the easiest place for me to keep quoting myself while I read through the thread anyway. Like many of you, I keep following the contest even after I'm eliminated for the discussion.

I doubt it bothers very many folks,this thread has been pretty user friendly over the years.So keep it up if you want.

...and who cares if it does bother some. They can scroll past it if that's the case.

I'm waiting for the payoff when this entry woulda been #1 over weeks 14-16 -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Done at 156.65

Good luck to those sweating the Turk!

-QG

 

[24seven]

So what is projected cut off?? Still 141?

 

[kinghill]

Rodgers gave me a chance. Done at 159.65, hoping that'll do.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Looks like OC did another run:

Last Update - Cutoff: Tuesday, November 15th 12:31am Cutoff at that time: 147.50

Unofficial of course for those on the edge.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Blech. Atrocious week, absolutely atrocious. What are the odds that Jennings + Harvin - 3.1 - 3.7 => 40? I figure that's what I need to have a shot (currently @ 111.6).I guess we'll see if Jennings was worth all those $2 and $3 WRs.

Harvin will be the key. You need a TD and 100 to get you in the game.Rooting for you as you've been a great contributor to this thread even though we disagree on strategy.

:( Looks like Tennessee ended up with 130 :( -QG

 

[Mapmaker]

190.7 ... 3rd best total of the season for my guys ... sadly pretty sure I'll be done next week with Brees, Sproles, Tate, Brown, Daniels and the Texan's on bye ... but it's been fun and the deepest I've gone !

 

[Lascelle]

Very curious to see how many fellow Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown owners get OBLITERATED in Week 11.

Hoping Denarius Moore carries the day and that Harry Douglas' showing wasn't a fluke. Otherwise, I'm probably dust.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Very curious to see how many fellow Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown owners get OBLITERATED in Week 11.Hoping Denarius Moore carries the day and that Harry Douglas' showing wasn't a fluke. Otherwise, I'm probably dust.

I'm likely one of these. Week 11 wasnt supposed to be a problem for me, however:Vincent Jackson - sucks, and is playing the bearsM. Manningham - last few weeks has been ok, but has to compete with cruz and the worlds fattest tight endM. Sims-Walker - sucks, and is now on IR.B. Berrian - why in gods name did i contaminate my roster with this piece of feces?!?M. Wallace - stud on byeA. Brown - stud on byeGonna need Brady, ADP and Hernandez to show up big this week.

 

[smarchit]

Looks like I made it through to Week 11 at 164.25. My chances are looking a bit sketchy for next week. My RB pool will be down to Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, and Javon Ringer. Replacing my most consistent big time producer this season (Jimmy Graham)looks to be my other major Week 11 hurdle (Paging Fred Davis, Jared Cook, and Evan Moore!). The Lions D should cover my Pittsburgh bye ok, and as long as Tim Twobow remembers that he has WRs, Decker and a few others should hopefully offset the loss of Antonio Brown.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Wow, squeaked by this week with a whole .35 points to spare.

 

[BassNBrew]

Can one of you smart guys with too much time on your hands who are programming/database experts run that spreadsheet showing how many players each team is starting next week by roster size. Wouldn't mind if you deleted the guys listed as out

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't have time to post the full stats, but the small rosters got crushed this week...at least more so than I expected going into the week.

42.25% were eliminated this week compared to 30.5% contest wide. 283 of 3568 remain. 207 were eliminated in week 10.

85 19 man rosters were eliminated, 145 remain.

19 30 man rosters were eliminated, 112 remain.

 

[Worm]

Can't believe I'm still in this. My team name should be:

"out? out? out? out? out?"

 

[FUBAR]

by 4.55 points! Thank you McCluster, Reggie Bush, and Manningham.

But with Schaub out, Brown/Sanders/Daniels/TexansD on a bye and Stafford injured, I'll be lucky to survive next week.

If Santana came back., I'd be a little more optimistic.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	283	7.9%19	1393	145	10.4%20	1059	134	12.7%21	836	134	16.0%22	766	134	17.5%23	641	114	17.8%24	547	116	21.2%25	396	95	24.0%26	415	101	24.3%27	296	75	25.3%28	269	91	33.8%29	214	71	33.2%30	375	112	29.9%

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	283	7.9%19	1393	145	10.4%20	1059	134	12.7%21	836	134	16.0%22	766	134	17.5%23	641	114	17.8%24	547	116	21.2%25	396	95	24.0%26	415	101	24.3%27	296	75	25.3%28	269	91	33.8%29	214	71	33.2%30	375	112	29.9%

I'm in the 7.9%....barely. I'd feel a lot better about things if Miles Austin would get his head out of his ###. I REALLY need him to play this week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Can one of you smart guys with too much time on your hands who are programming/database experts run that spreadsheet showing how many players each team is starting next week by roster size. Wouldn't mind if you deleted the guys listed as out

I don't have a list of players that are out. If someone else wants to compile that I can feed it through the DB. But here are the numbers just excluding players who are on bye week 11:

	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	3018	1		4	18	45	69	75	46	19	6												19			2	4	12	22	40	37	19	8	1											20				6	3	16	29	29	29	16	6											21					2	5	17	27	35	23	18	7										22					2	2	5	18	32	33	30	10	2									23								9	13	29	30	23	8	2								24							1	2	16	15	27	28	19	8								25					1		2		2	8	16	22	27	9	7	1						26							1	1		5	4	21	27	16	18	3	4	1				27									1		4	5	12	15	15	17	5	1				28												3	7	17	23	28	10	3				29												2	1	8	12	16	16	14	2			30													3	3	18	27	24	26	7	3	1

ETA: That's roster size down the left-hand side, actual active (non week 11 bye) players across the top, and number of live entries in the table. So, for example, there's one 18-man roster who only has 9 active players this week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I may have low balled it. I have a 23 man roster btw. I'll say 66 spots 23 and under roster size. Make your guess.

160 is the number based on an even attrition rate across the board, so that may be a tad high. I'll go with 150, roughly a 10% and 12% survival rate for sub-23 and 24+ rostsers respectively.Yours assumes the 24+ rosters will suffer roughly a 5 times greater survival rate than the sub 23 rosters (4.5% vs. 22.2%).

Looking at it a little more this morning, I think 66 is way too low and 150 is way too high. I'll put my official guess at 120.

There are 1600 entries still alive. 250 of them will make it to the finals, which is a survival rate going forward of about 15.6%.943 of the 1600 are 18-23 man rosters. If they survived at exactly the 15.6% rate, about 147 of them would make the finals. But their survival rate will certainly be lower than that. I expect next week to be especially difficult for the smaller rosters.

 

[northwoods]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	283	7.9%19	1393	145	10.4%20	1059	134	12.7%21	836	134	16.0%22	766	134	17.5%23	641	114	17.8%24	547	116	21.2%25	396	95	24.0%26	415	101	24.3%27	296	75	25.3%28	269	91	33.8%29	214	71	33.2%30	375	112	29.9%

Can we put to bed the roster size question for this year yet??? The above chart makes it obvious that the larger the roster the better your odds of making the final 250 this year. Now, winning the final is a whole 'nother story and will play out over the last few weeks of the season. I think winning the final is much more of a crap shoot than getting to the final 250 and wouldn't be surprised to see the smaller roster's skew higher in the rankings in the final.

 

[cdubz]

Size	Total	Alive	Surv%18	3568	283	7.9%19	1393	145	10.4%20	1059	134	12.7%21	836	134	16.0%22	766	134	17.5%23	641	114	17.8%24	547	116	21.2%25	396	95	24.0%26	415	101	24.3%27	296	75	25.3%28	269	91	33.8%29	214	71	33.2%30	375	112	29.9%

After this bad showing by the small rosters this week, based on relative adjusted odds - I would predict 124 of final 250 would be 23 man and under rosters. Same approach prior to this week yielded 141. Iggy's guess is looking prescient. I forgot who mentioned it (and too lazy to go back and find out), but I think it is quite likely that since Foster was so widely owned last year the smaller rosters looked better than they are in theory. As of right now, you are 3.4x more likely to be alive if you have a 28-30 man roster than a 18-20 man roster. Owning a 30 man roster myself, not surprised that it is higher - but the magnitude of the difference is quite surprising.

 

[BassNBrew]

Size Total Alive Surv%18 3568 283 7.9%19 1393 145 10.4%20 1059 134 12.7%21 836 134 16.0%22 766 134 17.5%23 641 114 17.8%24 547 116 21.2%25 396 95 24.0%26 415 101 24.3%27 296 75 25.3%28 269 91 33.8%29 214 71 33.2%30 375 112 29.9%

Can we put to bed the roster size question for this year yet??? The above chart makes it obvious that the larger the roster the better your odds of making the final 250 this year.

Now, winning the final is a whole 'nother story and will play out over the last few weeks of the season. I think winning the final is much more of a crap shoot than getting to the final 250 and wouldn't be surprised to see the smaller roster's skew higher in the rankings in the final.

Nope....1) Too many junk entires skew the results.

2) Every year is different.

3) Sample size too small.

4) Studs play better in colder weather.

5) Studs step up down the stretch.

6) I'm playing to win.

7) Bump Finley.

 

[domvin]

Very curious to see how many fellow Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown owners get OBLITERATED in Week 11.Hoping Denarius Moore carries the day and that Harry Douglas' showing wasn't a fluke. Otherwise, I'm probably dust.

See, I am wondering if the cutoff for week 11 gets skewed-similar to how it was in week 8 with six teams on Bye.I know we only have 4 teams on Bye, but I think it may be offset by the quality of fantasy talent on Houston, Saints, Indy, and Pitts....And I realize-it all depends on production, just looking for somewhat of a baseline?Week 9 had 4 teams as well, but I think less selected talent-Car, Jax, Det, MN....I will be without ben Tate, and Jimmy Graham....Jimmy has absolutely carried me the deepest I have gone.Keep plugging....

 

[FUBAR]

Size Total Alive Surv%18 3568 283 7.9%19 1393 145 10.4%20 1059 134 12.7%21 836 134 16.0%22 766 134 17.5%23 641 114 17.8%24 547 116 21.2%25 396 95 24.0%26 415 101 24.3%27 296 75 25.3%28 269 91 33.8%29 214 71 33.2%30 375 112 29.9%

Can we put to bed the roster size question for this year yet??? The above chart makes it obvious that the larger the roster the better your odds of making the final 250 this year.

Now, winning the final is a whole 'nother story and will play out over the last few weeks of the season. I think winning the final is much more of a crap shoot than getting to the final 250 and wouldn't be surprised to see the smaller roster's skew higher in the rankings in the final.

Nope....1) Too many junk entires skew the results.

2) Every year is different.

3) Sample size too small.

4) Studs play better in colder weather.

5) Studs step up down the stretch.

6) I'm playing to win.

7) Bump Finley.

That's the key. Who cares if only 10 18 man teams make it to the end, if an 18 man team wins the contest?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Can one of you smart guys with too much time on your hands who are programming/database experts run that spreadsheet showing how many players each team is starting next week by roster size. Wouldn't mind if you deleted the guys listed as out

16-18 for me playing next week. Surprised being still alive and if I get knocked out, no big deal. No way can I win or come close to the top. No score over 179, a bunch of injuries blah blah blah.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Btw, the Turk's own entry was #9 this week He's not messing around this year and is beating up everyone at his own contest

-QG

 

[JoeSteeler]

if nothing else I am consistent. Last 3 weeks have been 171.05, 171.25, 171.25

 

[Bad_Mo]

Very curious to see how many fellow Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown owners get OBLITERATED in Week 11.Hoping Denarius Moore carries the day and that Harry Douglas' showing wasn't a fluke. Otherwise, I'm probably dust.

See, I am wondering if the cutoff for week 11 gets skewed-similar to how it was in week 8 with six teams on Bye.I know we only have 4 teams on Bye, but I think it may be offset by the quality of fantasy talent on Houston, Saints, Indy, and Pitts....And I realize-it all depends on production, just looking for somewhat of a baseline?Week 9 had 4 teams as well, but I think less selected talent-Car, Jax, Det, MN....I will be without ben Tate, and Jimmy Graham....Jimmy has absolutely carried me the deepest I have gone.Keep plugging....

No offense, but I'm hoping many have no offense.In other words, I'm hoping to lose alot of Brees, Colston, Graham, Sproles, Wallace, Mendenhall, A. Johnson, Foster, Owens, Schaub, Roth, Wayne, Brown, etc. owners this week. Sorry, but its getting somewhat real now.

 

[GDogg]

Just to update myself...I would have squeaked by the cut line this week had I not been cut in week 3. Finished with 113.1.

Again, would have gotten by.Finished with 127.35.

Again would have gotten by.Finished with 154.9.

And, again.Finished with 138.15.ETA: Had I made it through (out in week 3), I would have used 27 of my 30 players. The only guys I would not have used yet are Danny Amendola, Evan Moore and Harry Douglas.

Would have made it again.Finished with 186.05.Still at 27 of my 30 players contributing.

Would have made it again.Finished with 174.6Now, at 28 out of 30 players contributing. Only Danny Amendola and Evan Moore haven't.Ignoratio, any chance you could provide the updated number of rosters that have made it in all, but one week? If it's too much work, don't bother, obviously. Thanks in advance.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Ignoratio, any chance you could provide the updated number of rosters that have made it in all, but one week? If it's too much work, don't bother, obviously. Thanks in advance.

2,498 rosters have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Denarius Moore went from 39.3% owned after week 9 to 51.4% owned after week 10.

B. Tate is up to 57%

Antonio Brown is now 58.8%

 

[The Future Champs]

Denarius Moore went from 39.3% owned after week 9 to 51.4% owned after week 10.B. Tate is up to 57%Antonio Brown is now 58.8%

Yup, I have all three. My team is being carried by heavily owned players, which means I need someone else to step up down the stretch. Common Mark Clayton!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Ignoratio, any chance you could provide the updated number of rosters that have made it in all, but one week? If it's too much work, don't bother, obviously. Thanks in advance.

2,498 rosters have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

Iggy's slacking - that took an entire 10 minutes to provide -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Denarius Moore went from 39.3% owned after week 9 to 51.4% owned after week 10.B. Tate is up to 57%Antonio Brown is now 58.8%

This is some of the most interesting stuff to me.How many players are down to 0% of rosters? -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

The last Peyton Manning entry got eliminated this week.

-QG

 

[DAMAC3]

155.75 and still alive!

I have 7 on bye this week, so I doubt I will make it. This is my first try, so I didn't expect to still be alive anyway.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Feeling lucky being in the top 1600. Hopefully I can continue to ride Rice and Forte while my TE's fill in where my WR's leave a lot to be desired. No Graham or Daniels this week :crossingfingers:

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I was interested in the impact of going into a week shorthanded at QB. I looked at weekly survival rates for teams that had 0 active QBs that week, 1 active QB that week, or 2+ active QBs that week. Here are the results:

Status Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 100 QBs --- --- --- 38.1% 37.3% 39.5% 42.5% 31.0% ---1 QB 89.4% 76.8% 79.6% 82.9% 79.2% 77.3% 73.6% 71.1% 67.4%2+ QBs 93.1% 85.3% 85.5% 85.4% 84.6% 84.2% 83.4% 81.2% 69.8%
So having just one QB hurts your chances slightly, though not as much as I might have expected. Having 0 QBs is significantly worse, obviously. The places in the table with dashes, there were no data (actually there was one team in a few of those, but no sense reporting stats on one team).

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The last Peyton Manning entry got eliminated this week.

-QG

Didn't miss the cut by much.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

How many players are down to 0% of rosters? -QG

David AndersonDavid GettisDexter McCluster (RB)*Donnie AveryJeremiah JohnsonJonathan StewartMicheal SpurlockPeyton ManningTorrey Smith* - For those that don't remember, there were three entries that submitted a roster in a small window when McCluster had been incorrectly moved from WR to RB. Drinen ruled that they would be able to keep McCluster at the RB position, while everyone else would have McCluster count as a WR. All three rosters have since been eliminated.

 

[GDogg]

Ignoratio, any chance you could provide the updated number of rosters that have made it in all, but one week? If it's too much work, don't bother, obviously. Thanks in advance.

2,498 rosters have missed the cut one week but otherwise would have made the cut every other week.

Thanks!