What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

**Official 2014 In Season Dynasty Trade Thread** (1 Viewer)

We know what Harvin can do. He's a PPG dynamo any time he's in the lineup.

I think the same will eventually be true of Michael though.

Both guys are similar to me in that they have undeniable talent with a propensity for getting nicked up.

I don't think it is a bad deal for you though. Michael's ceiling is somewhere in outer space and the clock is ticking on Marshawn's prime.

 
12 Team Dynasty PPR 50/50 League. Rosters: 25 players Lineup: 1 QB, 2 /3 RBs, 3/4 WRs, 1/2 TEs, K, Def Start 10. A few trades done the last 10 days

A: Sept 10
The Blair Walsh/You've got to McKinnon Me! Trade

The Blair Walsh Project gave up

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB

Kelce, Travis KCC TE

Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 1 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

Year 2016 Round 2 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

You've got to McKinnon me! gave up

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

B:Sept 9
Gridiron Assault / Harvin Wallbangers Trade

Gridiron Assault gave up Nicks, Hakeem IND WR
Harvin Wallbangers gave up Wright, Kendall TEN WR

C: Sept 2
DEZ EQUIES / Shock and Awe Trade

DEZ EQUIES gave up

Locker, Jake TEN QB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

Shock and Awe gave up

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE

 
Last edited by a moderator:
12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?
Harvin Smash.
But should it matter that my other WR are Julio, CP, Cooks, DeAndre, A Robinson, etc....and RBs are T-Rich, Ellington, Bryce Brown, J Hill, Mason, Crowell?
Not really. Harvin should get a RB that will help you now. Maybe Michael is the next great RB in SEA but you are likely waiting another year before he helps while Harvin likely regains his top 10 WR status

I own both Harvin and CP but am way more comfortable starting Harvin as my WR2 every week

 
maxhyde said:
ThreeThousand said:
12 team PPR, 1/1/2/1, 2 flex

Team A: Gave Dennis Pitta

Team B: Gave Toby Gerhart, 2013 3rd
TE Premium? If not Gerhart for me and I am a big supporter of Pitta
Assuming you can flex TE, I'll take Pitta rather easily.

 
12 Team Dynasty PPR 50/50 League. Rosters: 25 players Lineup: 1 QB, 2 /3 RBs, 3/4 WRs, 1/2 TEs, K, Def Start 10. A few trades done the last 10 days

A: Sept 10

The Blair Walsh/You've got to McKinnon Me! Trade

The Blair Walsh Project gave up

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB

Kelce, Travis KCC TE

Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 1 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

Year 2016 Round 2 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

You've got to McKinnon me! gave up

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

B:Sept 9

Gridiron Assault / Harvin Wallbangers Trade

Gridiron Assault gave up Nicks, Hakeem IND WR

Harvin Wallbangers gave up Wright, Kendall TEN WR

C: Sept 2

DEZ EQUIES / Shock and Awe Trade

DEZ EQUIES gave up

Locker, Jake TEN QB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

Shock and Awe gave up

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
First - looks like fair value to me. Basically 4 1sts for Graham. I like Freeman and Kelce enough to consider them equal to late 1sts, while the 2nd for two 3rds is about right. That said, I'd likely take Graham.

Wright over Nicks, easily.

Last one is very close. I like Locker more than most and that trade looks even to me.

 
We know what Harvin can do. He's a PPG dynamo any time he's in the lineup.

I think the same will eventually be true of Michael though.

Both guys are similar to me in that they have undeniable talent with a propensity for getting nicked up.

I don't think it is a bad deal for you though. Michael's ceiling is somewhere in outer space and the clock is ticking on Marshawn's prime.
It doesn't worry you that he hasn't beat out Robert Turbin in 2 off-seasons? And it's not just passing down work. That would scare the #### out of me as a Michael owner.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Is this one better?

Give: DeAndre Hopkins, T-Rich, 2nd

Get: Ball, 1st

...weak at Rb: other WR are Julio, CP, Cooks, Harvin, A Robinson, etc....and RBs are Ellington, Bryce Brown, J Hill, Mason, Crowell

 
Last edited by a moderator:
12 team, standard scoring....weak at RB and probably not going to be super-competitive this year.

Team A gives: Percy Harvin

Team B gives: Christine Michael

Thoughts?
Harvin Smash.
But should it matter that my other WR are Julio, CP, Cooks, DeAndre, A Robinson, etc....and RBs are T-Rich, Ellington, Bryce Brown, J Hill, Mason, Crowell?
If it's close, yeah. But to me, those players aren't anywhere near close in value.

 
12 Team Dynasty PPR 50/50 League. Rosters: 25 players Lineup: 1 QB, 2 /3 RBs, 3/4 WRs, 1/2 TEs, K, Def Start 10. A few trades done the last 10 days

A: Sept 10

The Blair Walsh/You've got to McKinnon Me! Trade

The Blair Walsh Project gave up

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB

Kelce, Travis KCC TE

Year 2015 Round 1 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 1 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

Year 2016 Round 2 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

You've got to McKinnon me! gave up

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from You've got to McKinnon me!

Year 2016 Round 3 Draft Pick from The Blair Walsh Project

B:Sept 9

Gridiron Assault / Harvin Wallbangers Trade

Gridiron Assault gave up Nicks, Hakeem IND WR

Harvin Wallbangers gave up Wright, Kendall TEN WR

C: Sept 2

DEZ EQUIES / Shock and Awe Trade

DEZ EQUIES gave up

Locker, Jake TEN QB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

Shock and Awe gave up

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
Graham.

Wright by a lot.

Fair trade. Could see taking either side depending on team construction. Prefer the Carolina RB side in a vacuum.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Accidentally posted this in the "offseason" dyansty trade thread.

Gave:

Zac Stacy

Joplo Bartu

2015 first (mid to high)

Got:

Montee Ball

2015 3rd (mid to high)

12 team IDP, Q Q R R W W W F TE K DL DL DL LB LB LB LB DB DB DB

No PPR

 
Here's some I have seen go down in one league (12 team PPR 1/2/3/1, 1 flex)

Cam Newton, Jeremy Maclin

for

Matt Stafford, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley

Andrew Hawkins, Stepfan Taylor

for

Pierre Thomas

Lamar Miller, Terrance Williams

for

DeAndre Hopkins

Ryan Mathews, 2015 3rd

for

Terrance Williams, 2015 1st

 
Last edited by a moderator:
We know what Harvin can do. He's a PPG dynamo any time he's in the lineup.

I think the same will eventually be true of Michael though.

Both guys are similar to me in that they have undeniable talent with a propensity for getting nicked up.

I don't think it is a bad deal for you though. Michael's ceiling is somewhere in outer space and the clock is ticking on Marshawn's prime.
It doesn't worry you that he hasn't beat out Robert Turbin in 2 off-seasons? And it's not just passing down work. That would scare the #### out of me as a Michael owner.
Yeah, it's probably time to stop with the Michael = elite talent nonsense. Elite talent doesn't sit behind two dudes into year two. He might be "good," certainly, but at this point it's pretty unlikely that he's truly top shelf. Realistically, his upside isn't anywhere near "outer space." It's probably a lesser version of Marshawn Lynch. Of course that can still be worth plenty, but he's not Peterson, and those paying RB1 prices are pretty much buying at his reasonable upside. And given his college track record and pro career thus far, he's also carrying a pretty high chance of just outright being a total bust.

 
Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!
Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?
This... speaking for myself of course. Know any good ones SSOG?
Nope. This was the big project we were working on in the DynastyRankings.net days, but it's kind of the white whale of dynasty leagues. Obviously all sorts of difficulties arising from different league settings (PPR? Non? Start 2 WRs? 3? Flex? TE Premium? Deep benches? 16-team league?). Beyond that, the biggest problem was creating trade values that were internally consistent when you started getting into multi-player years. A $20 might be worth a $10, and a $10 might be worth two $5s, but that doesn't mean the $20 was worth four $5s. We were working on creating some sort of dummy value to represent unbalanced player deals when the site went under. I think it's probably a solvable problem if you automate it a bit (i.e. create a formula to derive trade value from a set of rankings), though automation obviously produces slightly less optimal results. I tried building one manually, but it's just a crushing project to try to keep up with by hand, at least if you plan on doing it any justice (as opposed to dashing something off and calling it good). For FBGs I'm writing two weekly columns, updating rankings bi-weekly, and contributing to various other staff features during the season, and I would say that keeping a quality trade value chart was more work than all of that combined.

Maybe during the offseason if I feel ambitious I might take another whack at the problem, but dynasty really doesn't lend itself to charts and formulas like redraft does. Which is one of the big reasons why I love dynasty so much. Redraft is more like checkers- it's testable, it's solvable, it's more realistic to expect that optimal strategies can be found. Dynasty's more like chess. There are so many variables that there's not really anyone out there who can claim they have it all figured out. You can come up with best practices and rules of thumb, but that's about it.
I understand at appreciate what you are saying. In my excel sheet(s)

For the pre-draft, I put the auction values by ranking and compared with several different sites to get an average. So for example the top ranked player is worth 45, 2nd and 3rd 43 and the 10th one 36, 30th 23, etc. Which gave a good indication.

After that I collected as many dynasty rankings as possible and took the average for each player and then plugged them into its corresponding value. So Calvin got value 45 AJ and DEz 43, Lacy (#10) 36 and Garcon (#30) 23, etc.

This was a great "market value indication of their values going into the the auction draft (started the Dynasty this year).

The thing is, things change constantly and it's hard to keep on going through the same thing over and over again.

Even a daily updated ranking, with those average numbers attached to them would do fine. Of course they aren't completely accurate as difference between overall 1 and 2 could be anything from 0-5$, but at least fairly accurate.

I found a site that updates (at least claims) its ranking daily http://www.dynastynerds.com/top-200-dynasty-rankings/ (hope its ok that I posted it), think I'll use that to my average ranking-value.

Just would love to have a place that did this for me. We do a lot of trades in our league (I love trades more than anything) and its very important for myself to get a clear picture of the feasibility of the trade.

Also think all rankings should be based on standard scoring with standard lineups (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX) and then people who more advanced formulas have to keep that in mind. Basically target the masses.

Any daily/weekly (dynasty) rankings you could recommend?

 
Here's some I have seen go down in one league (12 team PPR 1/2/3/1, 1 flex)

Cam Newton, Jeremy Maclin

for

Matt Stafford, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley

Andrew Hawkins, Stepfan Taylor

for

Pierre Thomas

Lamar Miller, Terrance Williams

for

DeAndre Hopkins

Ryan Mathews, 2015 3rd

for

Terrance Williams, 2015 1st
Stafford,

Thomas,

Hopkins,

Williams. But really just for the pick.

 
We know what Harvin can do. He's a PPG dynamo any time he's in the lineup.

I think the same will eventually be true of Michael though.

Both guys are similar to me in that they have undeniable talent with a propensity for getting nicked up.

I don't think it is a bad deal for you though. Michael's ceiling is somewhere in outer space and the clock is ticking on Marshawn's prime.
It doesn't worry you that he hasn't beat out Robert Turbin in 2 off-seasons? And it's not just passing down work. That would scare the #### out of me as a Michael owner.
Yeah, it's probably time to stop with the Michael = elite talent nonsense. Elite talent doesn't sit behind two dudes into year two. He might be "good," certainly, but at this point it's pretty unlikely that he's truly top shelf. Realistically, his upside isn't anywhere near "outer space." It's probably a lesser version of Marshawn Lynch. Of course that can still be worth plenty, but he's not Peterson, and those paying RB1 prices are pretty much buying at his reasonable upside. And given his college track record and pro career thus far, he's also carrying a pretty high chance of just outright being a total bust.
The Turbin thing is tricky because we don't know what the Seahawks would do if Lynch were actually to miss time. Everyone thought Ronnie Hillman was "ahead" of Knowshon Moreno in 2012 because he was active on gamedays and Moreno wasn't, but when McGahee went down it was actually Moreno who became the workhorse in his place. My hunch is that Michael would actually get the majority of the carries if Lynch were to get injured, so the idea that I need to be worried because he couldn't beat out Robert Turbin is a non-starter for me. I think Turbin only plays ahead of him for blocking/reliability reasons. That stuff is a lot more learnable than pure running talent, where Michael shines. He is a far better player than Turbin with the ball in his hands. Seattle made sure to get him some time with Wilson and the first team offense in the preseason. In fact, he actually had more carries in the first quarter of their third preseason game than Turbin. It was close, but he also had more carries in the game overall. Turbin didn't even get an entire series to himself before Michael came into the game.

I think the people who question Michael's talent are simply late to the party. Ability is not the issue with him. He's not as powerful as Lynch and he might not have his balance, but he's quicker and more explosive. He has the potential to be a top 6-7 RB in the league. What it will ultimately come down to is durability. If I knew he could stay healthy then he would be an easy top 5 dynasty back for me, but with a suspect history in that regard there's definitely some concern. It remains to be seen how he might hold up as a full-time starter, but I think the questions about his talent will be silenced after about two quarters of his first game as a starter.

 
EBF said:
The Turbin thing is tricky because we don't know what the Seahawks would do if Lynch were actually to miss time.
Why is Turbin the 2nd back in for relief, but not the next up if Marshawn went down? It would be one thing if Turbin was getting the 3rd down work, but he's getting all of it. I just don't see why they would want a lesser back getting carries--if they truly felt he was a lesser back.

EBF said:
I think the people who question Michael's talent are simply late to the party.
I think that depends on what you mean by talent--it's very subjective. He hasn't done anything special, in terms of production, since high school. If talent doesn't translate to production--what good is it? What is talent doing for Lache Seastrunk--who stood out in college--right now? Or Darick Rogers?

I certainly get the physical, measurable qualities that he possesses. But questioning his on field ability, relative to the hype, certainly seems rational.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think that depends on what you mean by talent--it's very subjective. He hasn't done anything special, in terms of production, since high school. If talent doesn't translate to production--what good is it? What is talent doing for Lache Seastrunk--who stood out in college--right now? Or Darick Rogers?

I certainly get the physical, measurable qualities that he possesses. But questioning his on field ability, relative to the hype, certainly seems rational.
You singled out two players with maturity and coachability questions which don't really apply to Michael. What is talent doing for Cordarrelle and Quick right now? When teams invest pedigree picks in skill players, and a 2nd round RB qualifies as that, they put effort+patience into their development.

 
You singled out two players with maturity and coachability questions which don't really apply to Michael.
:notsureifserious:

What is talent doing for Cordarrelle and Quick right now? When teams invest pedigree picks in skill players, and a 2nd round RB qualifies as that, they put effort+patience into their development.
Quick has had a game. Seems a bit early to point to him. And if he does work out--he'll join a group smaller than the one comprised of Greg Little, Stephen Hill, and Devin Thomas, among others.

I'm not suggesting we give up on the kid. But people are moving him for Percy Harvin and valuing him as a mid-first round pick. Can we let him beat out Robert Turbin first? Maybe third times the charm?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think that depends on what you mean by talent--it's very subjective. He hasn't done anything special, in terms of production, since high school. If talent doesn't translate to production--what good is it? What is talent doing for Lache Seastrunk--who stood out in college--right now? Or Darick Rogers?

I certainly get the physical, measurable qualities that he possesses. But questioning his on field ability, relative to the hype, certainly seems rational.
You singled out two players with maturity and coachability questions which don't really apply to Michael. What is talent doing for Cordarrelle and Quick right now? When teams invest pedigree picks in skill players, and a 2nd round RB qualifies as that, they put effort+patience into their development.
I thought character concerns were the only reason he wasn't the first RB taken last year?

 
Dan Hindery said:
Here's some I have seen go down in one league (12 team PPR 1/2/3/1, 1 flex)

Cam Newton, Jeremy Maclin

for

Matt Stafford, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley

Andrew Hawkins, Stepfan Taylor

for

Pierre Thomas

Lamar Miller, Terrance Williams

for

DeAndre Hopkins

Ryan Mathews, 2015 3rd

for

Terrance Williams, 2015 1st
Stafford and Pats

Pierre

D-Hop

2015 1st (Williams is just gravy).

 
Footdude said:
10 team QQRRWWWW PPR with return yardage

CPatterson

For

Lacy
Going to depend entirely on the return yardage scoring. 1 point per 50 yards? Give me Lacy. 1 point per 10 yards? Holy hell give me Patterson.

 
BostonRob said:
Guys, any good trade value charts online for Dynasty leagues? Must be around somewhere!
Looking for charts that value veteran players against each other? Or something like a rookie pick value chart?
This... speaking for myself of course. Know any good ones SSOG?
Nope. This was the big project we were working on in the DynastyRankings.net days, but it's kind of the white whale of dynasty leagues. Obviously all sorts of difficulties arising from different league settings (PPR? Non? Start 2 WRs? 3? Flex? TE Premium? Deep benches? 16-team league?). Beyond that, the biggest problem was creating trade values that were internally consistent when you started getting into multi-player years. A $20 might be worth a $10, and a $10 might be worth two $5s, but that doesn't mean the $20 was worth four $5s. We were working on creating some sort of dummy value to represent unbalanced player deals when the site went under. I think it's probably a solvable problem if you automate it a bit (i.e. create a formula to derive trade value from a set of rankings), though automation obviously produces slightly less optimal results. I tried building one manually, but it's just a crushing project to try to keep up with by hand, at least if you plan on doing it any justice (as opposed to dashing something off and calling it good). For FBGs I'm writing two weekly columns, updating rankings bi-weekly, and contributing to various other staff features during the season, and I would say that keeping a quality trade value chart was more work than all of that combined.

Maybe during the offseason if I feel ambitious I might take another whack at the problem, but dynasty really doesn't lend itself to charts and formulas like redraft does. Which is one of the big reasons why I love dynasty so much. Redraft is more like checkers- it's testable, it's solvable, it's more realistic to expect that optimal strategies can be found. Dynasty's more like chess. There are so many variables that there's not really anyone out there who can claim they have it all figured out. You can come up with best practices and rules of thumb, but that's about it.
I understand at appreciate what you are saying. In my excel sheet(s)

For the pre-draft, I put the auction values by ranking and compared with several different sites to get an average. So for example the top ranked player is worth 45, 2nd and 3rd 43 and the 10th one 36, 30th 23, etc. Which gave a good indication.

After that I collected as many dynasty rankings as possible and took the average for each player and then plugged them into its corresponding value. So Calvin got value 45 AJ and DEz 43, Lacy (#10) 36 and Garcon (#30) 23, etc.

This was a great "market value indication of their values going into the the auction draft (started the Dynasty this year).

The thing is, things change constantly and it's hard to keep on going through the same thing over and over again.

Even a daily updated ranking, with those average numbers attached to them would do fine. Of course they aren't completely accurate as difference between overall 1 and 2 could be anything from 0-5$, but at least fairly accurate.

I found a site that updates (at least claims) its ranking daily http://www.dynastynerds.com/top-200-dynasty-rankings/ (hope its ok that I posted it), think I'll use that to my average ranking-value.

Just would love to have a place that did this for me. We do a lot of trades in our league (I love trades more than anything) and its very important for myself to get a clear picture of the feasibility of the trade.

Also think all rankings should be based on standard scoring with standard lineups (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX) and then people who more advanced formulas have to keep that in mind. Basically target the masses.

Any daily/weekly (dynasty) rankings you could recommend?
I don't know of anyone who updates daily, nor do I think there's a whole lot of point to it. Weekly should be plenty frequent enough. Even weekly becomes kind of overkill by the later points of the season- if we're being proper Bayesians, as we get progressively more data each new piece of information becomes progressively less impactful, dramatically chilling any movement in rankings. I used to do weekly updates at DR.net, too, along with notes on any movement. By the end of the season it just got to be overkill, since not much was happening in my rankings anymore.

I don't know of anyone at DLF or FBGs who for sure updates weekly, but I know many update bi-weekly, and between the rotating coverage there are always a handful of sets of rankings that have been updated in the last week to choose from.

 
EBF said:
I think the people who question Michael's talent are simply late to the party. Ability is not the issue with him. He's not as powerful as Lynch and he might not have his balance, but he's quicker and more explosive. He has the potential to be a top 6-7 RB in the league.
If by "late to the party" you mean "won't annoint a player who has done basically nothing in either the NFL or college as a top-10 FF RB" then yep, I'm guilty as charged.

The only thing that indicates Michael is special in any way is the combine, and there's no way that should carry more weight than his draft position + his college and (to date) pro careers, which suggest a range from "good" down to "bust." Not every great combine athlete is a great football player.

 
12 team best ball dynasty. QRRWWWTF; 0.5 ppr; 5/pTD; .05/pyd

Gave: Dobson + McKinnon

Got: Alex Smith + McCluster

I'm a title contender, but my QB2 was Shaun Hill. With best ball, Smith adds ~70 points to my year-end total. Dobson maybe 20.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The "only thing" besides being a 2nd round pick by the best organization in the NFL, lighting up training camp, and looking like a beast at almost every opportunity so far. The signs are there if you can read them. People obsessing over the Turbin thing will feel silly when they're sheepishly moving Michael up in their top 10 dynasty RBs in about 12-15 months.

 
The "only thing" besides being a 2nd round pick by the best organization in the NFL, lighting up training camp, and looking like a beast at almost every opportunity so far. The signs are there if you can read them. People obsessing over the Turbin thing will feel silly when they're sheepishly moving Michael up in their top 10 dynasty RBs in about 12-15 months.
You were one of Turbin's supporters when he came out. What is SO different right now?

 
The "only thing" besides being a 2nd round pick by the best organization in the NFL, lighting up training camp, and looking like a beast at almost every opportunity so far. The signs are there if you can read them. People obsessing over the Turbin thing will feel silly when they're sheepishly moving Michael up in their top 10 dynasty RBs in about 12-15 months.
It's not an exact science. Physically gifted players bust at a surprising rate. Look at the first round of any draft in history, 3+ years removed. You think those franchises weren't just as convinced of their prospects future, as you are of Michael's?

CDL and I aren't calling him a bust--we want to see something at an NFL level before assuming success at said level. And us reacting to what we see isn't sheep behavior; it's adjusting a calculation to include new data points. It's a productive practice. Have you not seen Cosmos?! ;)

 
You singled out two players with maturity and coachability questions which don't really apply to Michael.
:notsureifserious:
Sure his A&M career is relevant, but that is not as meaningful a data point to me. Seattle knew his history, local media knows his history, and I have not seen any reports of unprofessionalism since becoming a professional. You compared him to two players who didn't survive their first training camp because the coaches just didn't want them around. There hasn't been any of that sort of discussion in Seattle. I agree there is risk, I just don't view it in as stark terms as you're presenting your argument, and feel a comparison to a guy like Rogers or Seastrunk is strained. It's easy to pat yourself on the back when an injured second year player isn't getting reps, but let's wait for actual results on usage this year.

 
The "only thing" besides being a 2nd round pick by the best organization in the NFL, lighting up training camp, and looking like a beast at almost every opportunity so far. The signs are there if you can read them. People obsessing over the Turbin thing will feel silly when they're sheepishly moving Michael up in their top 10 dynasty RBs in about 12-15 months.
If you were valuing Michael as a typical late 2nd round RB in a good situation with poor opportunity we wouldn't be disagreeing at all. You're not.

And it's not entirely (or even mostly) about Turbin. It's about reasonable expected value of an unknown player with Michael's overall profile, which ain't even remotely close to top-10 FF RB value.

And come on with the "lighting up training camp" and "looking like a beast" in preseason stuff. You've been around long enough to know better about that.

 
CDL and I aren't calling him a bust-
You can't hedge like that. The purpose of the hobby is to guess the future and act accordingly. You are promoting sell at current rates, which means the price is likely falling to match. Hopefully this is an indication the market will be poked, and there will be a string of Michael for lesser prospect trades. Assuming not all owners are true believers.

 
I agree there is risk, I just don't view it in as stark terms as you're presenting your argument, and feel a comparison to a guy like Rogers or Seastrunk is strained. It's easy to pat yourself on the back when an injured second year player isn't getting reps, but let's wait for actual results on usage this year.
I don't think I'm being clear on my stance. Rogers and Seastrunk were not my projections--just an example of "talent" not being a sure sign of NFL success.

Again, if you think I'm patting myself on the back, I misrepresented my stance. I never projected Michael to be 3rd string right now, so there is nothing for me to take pride in.

I'm with you--let's reevaluate if and when we get some actual results. In the meantime, I think the market is far too convinced of his future success.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You singled out two players with maturity and coachability questions which don't really apply to Michael.
:notsureifserious:
Sure his A&M career is relevant, but that is not as meaningful a data point to me.
He slept through team meetings at the comine. Relevant?
His showing at the combine (both + and -) is already baked in to his draft position. And since he's been drafted, we have basically nothing (no, coachspeak and preseason stats don't count as meaningful new data), so anchoring his value to the one hard data point we have, his draft position, would appear to be a reasonable thing to do. Yet somehow that's considered "hate."

 
I fall into this trap occasionally myself, but there's already a long thread about Michael where this has been discussed ad nauseum. Probably best to take it there (although I highly doubt any minds will be changed, no matter how compelling the arguments may be).

 
CDL and I aren't calling him a bust-
You can't hedge like that. The purpose of the hobby is to guess the future and act accordingly. You are promoting sell at current rates, which means the price is likely falling to match. Hopefully this is an indication the market will be poked, and there will be a string of Michael for lesser prospect trades. Assuming not all owners are true believers.
Hedge? Again, you're talking as though I have ulterior motives in my rather agnostic stance. Not putting all my chips on boom or bust does not mean I am hedging a bet.

 
He slept through team meetings at the comine. Relevant?
It's all part of the story but it's not as relevant as the fact he got 3 receptions in preseason game this year, which while inconsequential indicates some growth. Seattle knew he overslept and missed meetings (not to overparse your sentence, but he was not asleep at meetings, he missed an interview or two because he overslept). I mean, I'm sure we all have coworkers who have rescheduled teleconf with customers because they "lost track of time" so let's not huff and puff. His employer knows his record, and he is enough in the public we would know if there was a continued issue.

 
CDL and I aren't calling him a bust-
You can't hedge like that. The purpose of the hobby is to guess the future and act accordingly. You are promoting sell at current rates, which means the price is likely falling to match. Hopefully this is an indication the market will be poked, and there will be a string of Michael for lesser prospect trades. Assuming not all owners are true believers.
What? You absolutely HAVE TO hedge like that with every player. We don't KNOW what any of them will do moving forward, so we assign probabilities to a wide range of different values and establish valuations currently. Yeah, I'd sell Michael at RB1 prices. But in no way does that mean I'm definitively saying he's a bust.

 
CDL and I aren't calling him a bust-
You can't hedge like that. The purpose of the hobby is to guess the future and act accordingly. You are promoting sell at current rates, which means the price is likely falling to match. Hopefully this is an indication the market will be poked, and there will be a string of Michael for lesser prospect trades. Assuming not all owners are true believers.
Hedge? Again, you're talking as though I have ulterior motives in my rather agnostic stance. Not putting all my chips on boom or bust does not mean I am hedging a bet.
Pushing all in on wildly extreme calls either way on players is a pretty good way to totally suck at FF, actually. Every bet should be hedged. Every. Single. One.

 
(not to overparse your sentence, but he was not asleep at meetings, he missed an interview or two because he overslept).
The period of time is no less the noun than the physical location. I don't want you to misparse or anything.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
CDL and I aren't calling him a bust-
You can't hedge like that. The purpose of the hobby is to guess the future and act accordingly. You are promoting sell at current rates, which means the price is likely falling to match. Hopefully this is an indication the market will be poked, and there will be a string of Michael for lesser prospect trades. Assuming not all owners are true believers.
Hedge? Again, you're talking as though I have ulterior motives in my rather agnostic stance. Not putting all my chips on boom or bust does not mean I am hedging a bet.
None of us participating in this discussion are agnostic on Michael. Whatever risk you've assigned to him, the implicit value you've assigned is significant enough that it's tempered your argument. We get that you still think if he gets 25 carries a game for Seattle he could be good. That does not change how I interpret your current stance on his value, which is the topic of this discussion.

 
None of us participating in this discussion are agnostic on Michael. Whatever risk you've assigned to him, the implicit value you've assigned is significant enough that it's tempered your argument. We get that you still think if he gets 25 carries a game for Seattle he could be good. That does not change how I interpret your current stance on his value, which is the topic of this discussion.
My stance, as I presented it in this conversation, is that the market is irrational in how it currently values Christine Michael as a dynasty asset. Your interpretation, then, is of my stance in relation to the norm and not my stance itself, which I really haven't gone into.

Semantics aside, his current price is too high for my liking. Interpret as you will.

 
Moving along, the following was just accepted:

QRRWWWTF - 12Tm - 1PPR

Gave: M. Wheaton, 1st (1.11 last year--likely to be close to that this year, imo), 30 BB (100/yr)

Got: K. Benjamin, 2nd (2.03 last year--likely to be close to that this year, imo)

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top