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**Official 2014 MLB Regular Season-All over but the shouting (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
No WBC this year. If anything, I think teams have been managing spring work loads more than ever.
I'm no kinesthesiologist but my theory is due to better conditioning and mechanical analysis, pitchers are throwing high stress pitches with greater velocity. It isn't possible to strengthen components like the UCL enough to handle this force consistently.
Steve Stone was on 670 the Score in Chicago saying the same thing. He thinks MLB will eventually trend back to 4 man rotations and guys throwing more, but not any time soon.
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Eephus
Footballguy
No. Pitch count limits still reduce risk of injury. If guys were throwing 150 pitches a night, you'd expect injuries to increase.
Unfortunately, we don't have much historical PitchFX data but it seems like pitchers are throwing harder than ever, especially on breaking pitches like sliders and splitters that place more stress on the elbow. If you watch the old MLB games on Youtube, there's no radar gun of course. The pitchers are still bringing major league heat but their off-speed stuff looks more off-speed to me than in the modern game.
Eephus
Footballguy
An economic argument could be made in the opposite direction, e.g. going to six man rotations. If the Dodgers have a ten year commitment to Kershaw and his arm has a limited number of innings in it, there would be incentive to the club to stretch those innings out over the term of his contract.
Eephus
Footballguy
Well, there's some talk about ligament weakness being an after-effect of steroid use but that's not likely with young guys like Taillon and Bundy who've come up in an era of increased testing.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I like this theory.Eephus said:
shadyridr
Footballguy
OK I can get on board with pitch count limits reducing injury risk but the whole theory about limiting pitchers to only 30 inning increases each year seems kind of silly and arbitrary to me. Werent all these SPs that got hurt babied? Matt Harvey had a strict innings limit. I know Medlen & Beachy did. And so on and so on.Eephus said:
rodg12
Footballguy
Last night, MLB Network talked about an interview James Andrews did on SiriusXM yesterday about all the pitching injuries. He said one of the likely culprits is all these guys playing baseball year-round growing up with the advent of all these travel teams and sports specialization by 12. They don't get the necessary rest time growing up and put too much stress on the ligaments at a young age which causes injuries down the road.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Yeah I think the "Verducci theory" about increases in IP being the cause has been disproven many times (doesn't stop him from trotting out new candidates every year though)
RnR
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
rodg12
Footballguy
The bolded is true. Joe Sheehan is doing a series in his newletter about the 'state of the game' and how pitchers are currently dominating at levels not seen since 1968. His last one from yesterday has this table included...Eephus said:
[SIZE=9pt] FBVelo K% K/BB P95+ P93+[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2013 91.7 20.0 2.70 28 95[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2012 91.6 19.9 2.67 26 86[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2011 91.5 18.7 2.50 28 85[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2010 91.2 18.6 2.36 24 85[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2009 91.2 18.1 2.18 18 69[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2008 90.7 17.6 2.19 11 63[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2007 90.3 17.2 2.18 10 54[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2006 90.5 17.0 2.19 15 57[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2005 90.1 16.6 2.19 11 46[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2004 90.1 17.0 2.15 10 49[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2003 89.9 16.5 2.11 9 38[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]2002 89.9 17.0 2.12 11 40[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]FBVelo: Avg FB velocity, all pitchers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]P95+: Number of pitchers (min: 50 IP) averaging a 95-mph FB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]P93+: Number of pitchers (min: 50 IP) averaging a 93-mph FB[/SIZE]
rodg12
Footballguy
Apparently Andrews also said this yesterday...
CJ Nitkowski @CJNitkowski 3m
Dr. Andrews on TJ surgeries blaming radar gun obsession at early age. Crazy ### parents: I've seen you, you brag your kids velo to me. Stop.
CJ Nitkowski @CJNitkowski 3m
Dr. Andrews on TJ surgeries blaming radar gun obsession at early age. Crazy ### parents: I've seen you, you brag your kids velo to me. Stop.
shadyridr
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
The K% could be more of an indicator of new approaches at the plate (ie hitters not choking up on the bat with 2 Ks, less of an emphasis on Ks being bad, etc) but the increase in FB velocity over the last 10 years is eye opening.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Bonerface.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
As much as I hate the White Sux, I really hate to see Garcia go down. There is a lot of talent here, shame.
Wrigley
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I think this is why Justin Verlander and some others have reduced their average velocity. People made a big deal about Verlander last year but the fact is, he could still dial it up in the high 90s if he has to. Instead he is relying on more off-speed stuff and more control with his fastball. He's still making the transition but in an article in the off-season he was saying how he wanted to pitch another ten years, and throwing 99 every inning isn't the best way to get there.
I thought about this whole conversation yesterday and came to the same conclusion about velocity though. Seems like we want guys to pitch six innings in the 90s, and then bring on bullpen arms that are high 90s to get three outs. The torque on the elbow and shoulder when you slow a pitcher's delivery down almost looks violent, especially guys with poor mechanics. Guys like Anibal Sanchez who have near perfect mechanics seem to glide, while guys like Tyson Ross don't even look natural.
RnR
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Oh that's bad RnR, funny but bad.
Yoenis has the biggest glove I've ever seen outside of Blooper Ball.
Yoenis has the biggest glove I've ever seen outside of Blooper Ball.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
If these new rules means that Castro is safe at the plate when he's thrown out by 10 feet, then the new rules suck.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Wait what just happened in Chicago? So a catcher has the ball and he's not allowed to wait for the runner to get there to apply the tag? Wtf is going on?
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Wrigley
Footballguy
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
Did they give an explanation of what happened in the telecast? I just watched the replay on MLB.com and it certainly looked like he was out. Was he called safe because the catcher was blocking the plate before he had the ball or something?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Yes.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Nothing official was announced but that's what the announcers were guessing, they couldn't figure out any other reason why he would be called safe. Catcher had the ball for 5 seconds waiting at the plate, I'm not sure what he's supposed to do now.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
I don't like that interpretation. I understand that the catchers are supposed to give a lane, but when the catcher gets the ball and the runner is still 30 feet up the line it seems stupid to call him safe. I get it if he's within 10 feet, the ball is on the way and the catcher is still blocking. Seems like this needs to be calibrated.Nothing official was announced but that's what the announcers were guessing, they couldn't figure out any other reason why he would be called safe. Catcher had the ball for 5 seconds waiting at the plate, I'm not sure what he's supposed to do now.
dparker713
Footballguy
Of the publicly available research, there's been no findings that year over year increases in innings contribute to injury risk. The only things that have shown correlation are age, number of pitches thrown and DL stints in the prior year.
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Eephus
Footballguy
Yeah but wouldn't there be a relation between number of pitches thrown and innings pitched
Just my opinion, but I don't necessarily agree.Eephus said:
I don't think pitchers in the past were slowing down their deliveries for off speed pitches and this reduced the effect on their elbows or reduced the injuries even. I think some guys back then were throwing just as hard as pitchers do now.
I do however believe that the increased injuries are due to better technologies that allow doctors to diagnose and perform surgeries on injured pitchers. It wouldn't surprise me at all if guys in the 60's, 70's, even 80's were pitching with injured shoulders, elbows, what have you, but that they simply never got diagnosed. In years gone by, a pitcher would throw as long as he could and if his velocity dropped or guys started hitting him more, the pitchers were simply dumped by the wayside.
But in this day and age, so much money is invested in pitchers that it makes sense to keep them pitching at their highest levels for as long as possible. It's a lot easier to drop a guy making 50k per year than a guy making 5 million per year, even when comparing 60's salaries to now.
I heard a guy talking about Frank Tanana and how he came into the league in the early-mid 70's, guy was throwing mid to high 90's. But most people that remember Tanana remember him as an offspeed pitcher because he lost the velocity and had to reinvent himself. Who's to say he hadn't had a blown UCL
I mean, Parnell was probably pitching all spring with a damaged ucl, if he only didn't get lit up in the regular season, he may have simply continued to do so. Same with Hanrahan last year, and I'm sure a host of others. It's not as if these injuries happen all of the sudden in most cases.
I think pitchers would be better off throwing a lot more, and in their inbetween days too. Just my opinion, but it seemed to work out pretty great for the Braves for a long time. And while I'm sure the human arm is not meant to throw in the manner and at the velocity that most major league pitchers do, I do think that muscle reputation and strengthening/stretching exercises on the muscles used to pitch can only help.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
That was brutal. I'm hoping it was an umpire error and not the way it's going to be.I don't like that interpretation. I understand that the catchers are supposed to give a lane, but when the catcher gets the ball and the runner is still 30 feet up the line it seems stupid to call him safe. I get it if he's within 10 feet, the ball is on the way and the catcher is still blocking. Seems like this needs to be calibrated.Nothing official was announced but that's what the announcers were guessing, they couldn't figure out any other reason why he would be called safe. Catcher had the ball for 5 seconds waiting at the plate, I'm not sure what he's supposed to do now.
Eephus
Footballguy
I don't buy the Tanana example. He's younger than Tommy John. Dr. Jobe and others had the ability to diagnose elbow ligament damage. Tanana threw hard when he came up. He lost velocity as he aged as almost every starting pitcher does. After a mid-career trough, he was able to reinvent himself as a crafty lefty.Just my opinion, but I don't necessarily agree.I don't think pitchers in the past were slowing down their deliveries for off speed pitches and this reduced the effect on their elbows or reduced the injuries even. I think some guys back then were throwing just as hard as pitchers do now.Eephus said:
I do however believe that the increased injuries are due to better technologies that allow doctors to diagnose and perform surgeries on injured pitchers. It wouldn't surprise me at all if guys in the 60's, 70's, even 80's were pitching with injured shoulders, elbows, what have you, but that they simply never got diagnosed. In years gone by, a pitcher would throw as long as he could and if his velocity dropped or guys started hitting him more, the pitchers were simply dumped by the wayside.
But in this day and age, so much money is invested in pitchers that it makes sense to keep them pitching at their highest levels for as long as possible. It's a lot easier to drop a guy making 50k per year than a guy making 5 million per year, even when comparing 60's salaries to now.
I heard a guy talking about Frank Tanana and how he came into the league in the early-mid 70's, guy was throwing mid to high 90's. But most people that remember Tanana remember him as an offspeed pitcher because he lost the velocity and had to reinvent himself. Who's to say he hadn't had a blown UCL
I mean, Parnell was probably pitching all spring with a damaged ucl, if he only didn't get lit up in the regular season, he may have simply continued to do so. Same with Hanrahan last year, and I'm sure a host of others. It's not as if these injuries happen all of the sudden in most cases.
I think pitchers would be better off throwing a lot more, and in their inbetween days too. Just my opinion, but it seemed to work out pretty great for the Braves for a long time. And while I'm sure the human arm is not meant to throw in the manner and at the velocity that most major league pitchers do, I do think that muscle reputation and strengthening/stretching exercises on the muscles used to pitch can only help.
There were undoubtedly other pitchers of that era who had promising careers cut short by arm trouble, Fidrych, Gary Nolan, Craig Swan and John Fulgham to name a few. In most cases, their careers simply ended. They weren't able to continue pitching through their injuries. I started a OOTP universe once in 1979 and a healthy faux-Fulgham went on to have a Hall of Fame caliber career.
If you go back further in baseball history, there are still many pitchers who flamed out quickly after some early success. They didn't have fancy medical terms for their sore arms. A few like Smoky Joe Wood were able to come back as position players. Others went back to the farm or factory with their stories of the big leagues.
dparker713
Footballguy
That's cumulative pitches, not pitches in the year prior.Yeah but wouldn't there be a relation between number of pitches thrown and innings pitched
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Not sure why you guys are getting so bent on Matt Moore, he stinks. I told everyone AVOID, consider yourself warned. 
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Maybe MLB should switch to underhand fast pitch.
Eephus
Footballguy
This isn't specifically about Moore. It's about increased elbow injuries for young pitchers. The fact that Moore got hurt indicates that you can get hurt just as easily throwing a ball as a strike.Not sure why you guys are getting so bent on Matt Moore, he stinks. I told everyone AVOID, consider yourself warned.
