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*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)

sloppy track, roughly 45 mins to post ... gotta take a longer look at the 6, Gold Street ... took his last two in similar conditions, stretching 2 more furlongs today, though. 

the 9 horse, Three Technique, catching my eye, as well. 
6/9 cooooold exacta!  :thumbup:

6/9/7/2 order of finish ... Silver Prospector didn't like the slop today ... major rally to close up the super. 

the winner went off at 10-1  :eek:

hard to believe he was slept on that much, given his last two wins in the slop ... guess the hoi polloi were spooked by the stretch  :shrug:

 
6/9 cooooold exacta!  :thumbup:

6/9/7/2 order of finish ... Silver Prospector didn't like the slop today ... major rally to close up the super. 

the winner went off at 10-1  :eek:

hard to believe he was slept on that much, given his last two wins in the slop ... guess the hoi polloi were spooked by the stretch  :shrug:
:pickle:

 
no replay of the Smarty available atm, so ... it was Gold Street on the hustle right from jump, wiring 'em in the muck - should be up on the YouToobz shortly. 

in the interim, let's get the last 3 preps i've yet to review in so's we be all caught up. 

i mistakenly labeled the Los Al Futurity the final prep of 2019 ... it wasn't - that distinction belongs to the Springboard Mile/Shoplifted run on 12/15. 

nice stretch battle here, as the winner held off a late rally from prohib fave Answer In, who was zooming up the rail ... Shoplifted made a nice move turning for home, found the 3 path, and dug in ... the galloping gray, Embolden, looked the part - but was outta real estate as the other 2 commenced their battle in the final yards. 

good looking effort, decent quarter/half splits, enough for Shoplifted to make his late run. 

came back and rallied to bottom out the tri yesterday in the Smarty ... has been knocking around with the top class, but up the track finishes in both the Juvey and American Pharoah - outta Into Mischief, with a Shopit bottom ... currently sitting at 48-1 futures, don't think yesterday's outing moves his needle much in either direction.  

on to 2020, and a look at 2 of the top 3 choices at the future books as of right now ...

New Year's Day was rung in at the lovely Big A with The Jerome/Independence Hall

the Trombetta trained titan went off as low as possible, prohib fave at 1/9 ... his 3 year old debut, coming in undefeated and much heralded as a top 3 contender for the Roses. 

came out a bit rank, spotted 'em a few lengths, giving bridge jumpers a severe case of the hershey squirts ... holy ####, amirite?

he takes charge at the half (47.2),  but veers out a bit, luggin' towards those dilapidated bleachers ... not the most graceful stride ... still looked a bit goofy romping down the stretch - but he's a big, beautiful boy, no?  took care of his biz, but he seems to have a touch of wackadoo in him - needs some schooling - but the power and promise are there, no doubt - he clocked 1:37 here for ####s n' giggles, with a wildly facacta jaunt of folly. 

outta Constitution (Tapit bro), and can currently be had at a steep 15-1 at the book - next up is either Sam Davis (Tampa 2/9), or the Risen Star (Fairgrounds 2/15)  - i would expect the latter, as it is of the 50/20/10/5 points dole ... a second place finish down there would secure the Derby gate, coupled with the 10 he bagged here. 

... and last one to be all caught up was run 1/4 at Santa Anita - Sham Stakes/Authentic

wires 'em with ease - coulda gone around 10 more times and no one was gonna sniff his ### ... and, much like Independence Hall, looked a bit green - lugging out making the initial stretch run ... similar time to IH, as well.  

both were only at one mile, really looking forward to seeing them chase the extra distance coming up.

outta Into Mischief, with a Flawless (mare's name, not a desription  :D ) bottom - next up seems to be the San Felipe on 3/7  - working well. 

currently 14-1 at the book, great looking animal - and, well ... Baffert.

:deadhorse:

all caught up. 

ETA: i'm laying off the Pegasus card today after yesterday's score ... we good on that count, gonna let it marinate - any others who are playing,  plz drop in with any picks, etc ... i might get tempted.  

sucks having Omaha Beach and Spun to Run scratch out, but it certainly opens up bomber potential. 

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
Mucho Gusto!
Si!! Con!

Walking Boot said:
Um.... 

:oldunsure:

I know it's too early to be getting excited, but, I'm starting to get a bit of a buzz. I know it's a long shot, but, if it happens, this might be a fun few months
it always is  :thumbup:

as per usual for this early part of the trail, we have no clear cut wünderkind ... yet.  

a few winners of recent vintage didn't even appear 'til the latter stages of the prep season ... with the shakeout of the modern game that's to be expected, in a way - but some of the cats we've seen thus far are proving that the one thing the great majority of this crop need is WORK, and plenty of it.

whether that be stretching out more, handling gate issues, responding to prompts, etc ... lotta Gumbys out there, ya know?

my endeavor here (as always) will be to find the most honest/steady animal to make the centerpiece of my tri key box wager on Derby day.  been hitting at a pretty decent clip in the TC races with that method of wager ...  it's my go-to, and would've yielded a shade under 25 large last year had Max Security not been given the DQ.

####.  i hate revisiting that ####in' disaster.  

damnit   :wall:

 
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as stated in my last post, we've had latecomers hit the trail recently, with much success ... most notable was TC winner Justify - and now Baffert appears to have another in that vain, with the very impressive Nadal having just romped through his naiden outing. 

6.5f at Santa Anita, with Diaz in the irons ... the splits are blistering, and this cat has that extra gear to go get it ... looked fresh enough on the gallop out to zip around again if asked. don't think any stretch out is gonna be much of an issue for this one.  

was injured during his 2 yr old training, been on ice working his way back ... i'd say we got a monster here - speed/power to spare,  this is one hell of a debut (98 BSF) for "RAFFA" - a paid work to get his feet wet, with a hiccup at the gate, sure ... but i think this is a major contender , no question. 

Nadal MSW 1/19/20

if Baffert chooses the Oaklawn route, next up would be the Southwest on 2/20 ... nothing has been mentioned yet about the path they're gonna take this beast on ... but, make no mistake - he's arrived.  

 
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as stated in my last post, we've had latecomers hit the trail recently, with much success ... most notable was TC winner Justify - and now Baffert appears to have another in that vain, with the very impressive Nadal having just romped through his naiden outing. 

6.5f at Santa Anita, with Diaz in the irons ... the splits are blistering, and this cat has that extra gear to go get it ... looked fresh enough on the gallop out to zip around again if asked. don't think any stretch out is gonna be much of an issue for this one.  

was injured during his 2 yr old training, been on ice working his way back ... i'd say we got a monster here - speed/power to spare,  this is one hell of a debut (98 BSF) for "RAFFA" - a paid work to get his feet wet, with a hiccup at the gate, sure ... but i think this is a major contender , no question. 

Nadal MSW 1/19/20

if Baffert chooses the Oaklawn route, next up would be the Southwest on 2/20 ... nothing has been mentioned yet about the path they're gonna take this beast on ... but, make no mistake - he's arrived.  
i dont get the rush-up after the slow break. if you got that much horse, wouldnt settle&pass be better schooling than urge&relax if one has high ambitions for the aniscule?! nice engine, tho -

 
i dont get the rush-up after the slow break. if you got that much horse, wouldnt settle&pass be better schooling than urge&relax if one has high ambitions for the aniscule?! nice engine, tho -
if you look at the last prep posted, the Sham, you'll see another Baffert Bullet (Authentic) taking the same approach, albeit at a mile. 

guess BB wanted to let this one the #### OUT!!!! after being idle for so long ... no 2 yr old foundation due to injury ... schooling will most likely come at Oaklawn, where he'll have more classier catsin busier fields to muck about with - Southwest 2/20, Rebel 3/14 ... then either back to Cali, or stay put for the Arky. 

dunno if they're gonna wheel back for SW, though ... if he is training well, i could see it ... but perhaps BB just opts for the 50/20/10/5 Rebel, then moves accordingly as per Raffa's performance/points. 

 
THREE today ... 10/4/2/1

Withers at the Big A

Holy Bull at Gulfstresm

Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita

Withers

Remsen winner #5 Shotski (and his surprising 98 bsf) is the 9/5 ml favorite - think he's gonna be tested by early speed outta the #7 Vannzzy, who is coming in fresh off a 1m/16th win over the synth up at Woodbine, wiring the field - 5/1 ml is juicy on this cat ... that's some live horse flesh.   the #2 Monday Morning Qb can also exert early pace, himself a recent stakes winner, taking down the 7f Heft at Laurel ... dunno if he can handle the stretch out, but he should be on the engine for as long as he possibly can.  the #6 Prince of Pharaohs is a hometown bred son of the the  TC winner - came up strong in the Jerome stretch for second .... i love Linda Rice trainees in these spots - 5/2 ml is kinda steep.    i have my eye on the #8 Portos, who can pick 'em up if we get a pace meltdown ... also note he just romped on this track by 10 lengths (sloppy conditions, tho) in his maiden win - debuted over the summer up at the Spa, rallying up to give eventual Lecomte winner Enforcable a slight nudge.   50% chance of rain come post time, so that's right up the wheelhouse ... Pletcher trained, outta Tapit - at 10/1 ml ... YES, plz.   gonna let Shotski beat me here, not sold on him, yet. 

Holy Bull

the #3 Tiz the Law inserted as 3/5 ml fave ... Franco stays on, the hijinks continue?  lemme get this out the way - I LOVE THIS CAT.  he's been absolutely murdering his works ... coming into this in top form - but one legit concern ... his figs are declining as the races get longer (97 at 6.5,  to 93 at 1m, to 89 at 1m16th).  going anuddah 1m16th today ... will be pressured by the #1 Toledo, coming in at 7/2 ml - he's gotta hustle early with that quick first turn at GP - distance should be no prob, increasing figs for this one (81, 92, 100!) last out was over this track 9 weeks ago - that c note over this surface (at 1m) is daunting.  LIVE!   he was beaten in that last out by the #4 horse today Ete Indien, who popped a 103!!  :eek:  ! - working very well coming in, with a couple on the spinach ... perfect post for him to control this mutha, 6/1 ml is very enticing - gotta love him here, A LOT.    a very interesting animal is in the #6 hole today, Relentless Dancer ... first stretch out, and working very sharp coming in - taking a class jump, as well ... Cali bred, been up to the Spa, Churchill, and last out was Delta Downs - he's gettin' around, if nothing else.   got a feeling he takes a step forward today ... these are such mercurial horses, and the early prep volatility is legit - TtL is the best horse, imo ... but he's gotta prove a lot today.  this field is full of horses ready to pop if he continues to run like a ####in' mamaloook.  he's gotta beat me, and he certainly has the chops to toy with 'em if he's gonna be firing his best effort. 

Robert B. Lewis

ahhh, the Cali special to wrap things up ... six going 1m1/16th - was hoping to see Storm the Court here, but no dice.  shame.  anyways, we get the return of Los Al Ftrty winner, Baffert's Million Dollar Baby, Thousand Words - coming out the #2 hole, and 4/5 ml fave with Prat on board.  bagged himself a 95 for that effort, a nice jump up from the 89 in his maiden.  been working well, and has already won at this distance.  deserving fave, got a feeling this one is just getting started, and is ready to uncork a doozy today.  tough to buck this cat here.    he'll be tested early by the #5 High Velocity, who finished third in that LosAl Ftrty ... so he's seen TW already at this distance - he was the pacesetter that sloppy/wet day, but faded in the stretch, given an 89 for that one ... took down the 7f Bob Hope at Del Mar back in November, with a 90 chalked up ... looks to me like a stone sprinter, and Rosario gonna send from jump ... he's also trained by Baffert, so maybe we get some setup here for TW again ... but this horse can hold on if the favorite doesn't fire. 3/1 ml if you feel the neeeed for speeeeed. he's gonna hafta to wire 'em if he plans on taking pictures at races end.    another contender is the #3, Tizmagician ... 3/1 ml for Mandela/Victor E ... finally popped his cherry in his sixth start 4 weeks ago - he's been firing mid 80s to 90 (top fig, hit twice) ... drilled a stellar 5f work for this one, today will be first try at this distance ... chops to crash the exacta, but can't see him taking TW down, lest we get a clunker out the fave.   the #1 Encoder comes in 8/1 for Smiff/Sadler ... killed his last work, has the kick and speed to pick this field up if they falter - he'll be coming late, if High Velocity backs up, be sure it'll be this horse challenging TW and Tiz if they are staying on ...  NOTE: will be his first start over dirt, kid's been a cabbage cutter through his 6 race career ... works over dirt have been very good, especially the one i mentioned (5f in 60 flat).  interesting spot for his surface debut ... most intriguing cat of the challengers, imo.  

:deadhorse:

 
Didn't the Withers used to be Belmont's equivalent to the Derby Trial? Now its pushed into deep winter to kick off NYRA's Derby trail?! The only greater insult would be to have it on the inner track....

 
Didn't the Withers used to be Belmont's equivalent to the Derby Trial? Now its pushed into deep winter to kick off NYRA's Derby trail?! The only greater insult would be to have it on the inner track....
it is February in Queens .... that means it is on the inner   :bag:

Are you insinuating that The Withers is withering in importance?
yep, been usurped by The Wood - which is traditionally harder

 
it was the other Rice entrant, Max Player, taking down the Withers ... Shotski second, Protos in third ... :23/:49/1:13/1:40/1:53 - sheeeesh - not that hot. 

 
TIZ. THE. LAW.

romped in the Holy Bull ... broke like a cannon shot, got pinched/checked at the 1/4 ... hooked up with Ete Indien at the 1/2, and then those two broke well clear of the rest ... TtL buried Ete, and came home comfortably ... man, he looked GOOD!  

 
TIZ. THE. LAW.

romped in the Holy Bull ... broke like a cannon shot, got pinched/checked at the 1/4 ... hooked up with Ete Indien at the 1/2, and then those two broke well clear of the rest ... TtL buried Ete, and came home comfortably ... man, he looked GOOD!  
Grand kiddy of Tapit. We know the sons do well, how bout the grandchildren?

 
:kicksrock:

Thousand Words took the Robert B Lewis. As expected. 

I'm an owner of Tizamagician so I was hoping for a miracle, but, it's not to be. It's been a wild month, just breaking our maiden on New Year's Day and suddently getting mentioned as a Derby contender two days later. William Hill's futures even listed us, opening up at 150-1 to win the Derby right after that race, and getting down as low as 40-1 this week. When I got that ownership group email that we declared our eligibility for the Triple Crown, I couldn't help but catch a little Derby Fever.

At least I'll get my share of the 4th place prize, might be a couple of bucks. And, hell, we got a Derby point, so I'll always have that. Finished second behind Honor AP and Wrecking Crew already, just not Tiz's year.

But if he keeps grinding out some money finishes, I'll be happy with my boy. Already looking forward to his next time out, if we aim him right he can still run. Looked good early today and I thought the added distance would help us, but, Thousand Words is just that good. Played it smart and stalked behind us stalking High Velocity. Pushed inside us on the final turn and got into great position for the victory.
damn, Boot ... had you mentioned this previously? don't think i saw it divulged here ... just watched the replay, went just as i expected with High Velocity leading the field most of the way ... your boy hung tough on him, which set TW up beautifully (again) to grab the stretch duel victory (Equibase 107 Fig) ... tell ya what, that 18/1 shot, the #4 horse Royal Act, prolly ran the best race - very late charge down the middle, closed in for the exacta - looked like he might've taken TW's measure had it been the KD distance  :shrug: he's a horse to watch for as we move on ... think the Trakus analytics will prove my point. 

how long have you been part of the ownership group?  i've long considered taking that plunge myself ... how many others in total?

congrats on getting the notice and thrill outta this ... had to be a very proud moment seeing your guy on the futures board, and being highly regarded coming into yesterday's event  :thumbup:  will be watching him forthwith, think he can be a productive earner for your group.

ETA: on the turn into the stretch we see TW make his charge ... Tiz and HV were neck n' neck, as TW tried to squeeze in between, even bumping Tiz a bit ... HV dives inside, opening a clear path for the winner - had TW been pinched there, and forced outside, Royal Act wins

TIZ. THE. LAW.

romped in the Holy Bull ... broke like a cannon shot, got pinched/checked at the 1/4 ... hooked up with Ete Indien at the 1/2, and then those two broke well clear of the rest ... TtL buried Ete, and came home comfortably ... man, he looked GOOD!  
rewatched the race ... he was absolutely freakish ... had previous gate/breaking issues, so they fired him the #### outta there yesterday like a quarter horse ... holy #### was he sent - again, he did encounter a bit of trouble, and was checked early on ... but once he got clear it was lights the #### OUT - bagged a 117 Equibase Speed Fig - as i said in my preview, if he's firing properly, he'll toy with 'em ... well, he was - and he did.  

Grand kiddy of Tapit. We know the sons do well, how bout the grandchildren?
looking into this a bit later on ... it runs $200k for a roll with his magic wand, tho   :pickle:

 
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otb_lifer said:
THREE today ... 10/4/2/1

Withers at the Big A

Holy Bull at Gulfstresm

Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita

Withers

Remsen winner #5 Shotski (and his surprising 98 bsf) is the 9/5 ml favorite - think he's gonna be tested by early speed outta the #7 Vannzzy, who is coming in fresh off a 1m/16th win over the synth up at Woodbine, wiring the field - 5/1 ml is juicy on this cat ... that's some live horse flesh.   the #2 Monday Morning Qb can also exert early pace, himself a recent stakes winner, taking down the 7f Heft at Laurel ... dunno if he can handle the stretch out, but he should be on the engine for as long as he possibly can.  the #6 Prince of Pharaohs is a hometown bred son of the the  TC winner - came up strong in the Jerome stretch for second .... i love Linda Rice trainees in these spots - 5/2 ml is kinda steep.    i have my eye on the #8 Portos, who can pick 'em up if we get a pace meltdown ... also note he just romped on this track by 10 lengths (sloppy conditions, tho) in his maiden win - debuted over the summer up at the Spa, rallying up to give eventual Lecomte winner Enforcable a slight nudge.   50% chance of rain come post time, so that's right up the wheelhouse ... Pletcher trained, outta Tapit - at 10/1 ml ... YES, plz.   gonna let Shotski beat me here, not sold on him, yet. 

Holy Bull

the #3 Tiz the Law inserted as 3/5 ml fave ... Franco stays on, the hijinks continue?  lemme get this out the way - I LOVE THIS CAT.  he's been absolutely murdering his works ... coming into this in top form - but one legit concern ... his figs are declining as the races get longer (97 at 6.5,  to 93 at 1m, to 89 at 1m16th).  going anuddah 1m16th today ... will be pressured by the #1 Toledo, coming in at 7/2 ml - he's gotta hustle early with that quick first turn at GP - distance should be no prob, increasing figs for this one (81, 92, 100!) last out was over this track 9 weeks ago - that c note over this surface (at 1m) is daunting.  LIVE!   he was beaten in that last out by the #4 horse today Ete Indien, who popped a 103!!  :eek:  ! - working very well coming in, with a couple on the spinach ... perfect post for him to control this mutha, 6/1 ml is very enticing - gotta love him here, A LOT.    a very interesting animal is in the #6 hole today, Relentless Dancer ... first stretch out, and working very sharp coming in - taking a class jump, as well ... Cali bred, been up to the Spa, Churchill, and last out was Delta Downs - he's gettin' around, if nothing else.   got a feeling he takes a step forward today ... these are such mercurial horses, and the early prep volatility is legit - TtL is the best horse, imo ... but he's gotta prove a lot today.  this field is full of horses ready to pop if he continues to run like a ####in' mamaloook.  he's gotta beat me, and he certainly has the chops to toy with 'em if he's gonna be firing his best effort. 

Robert B. Lewis

ahhh, the Cali special to wrap things up ... six going 1m1/16th - was hoping to see Storm the Court here, but no dice.  shame.  anyways, we get the return of Los Al Ftrty winner, Baffert's Million Dollar Baby, Thousand Words - coming out the #2 hole, and 4/5 ml fave with Prat on board.  bagged himself a 95 for that effort, a nice jump up from the 89 in his maiden.  been working well, and has already won at this distance.  deserving fave, got a feeling this one is just getting started, and is ready to uncork a doozy today.  tough to buck this cat here.    he'll be tested early by the #5 High Velocity, who finished third in that LosAl Ftrty ... so he's seen TW already at this distance - he was the pacesetter that sloppy/wet day, but faded in the stretch, given an 89 for that one ... took down the 7f Bob Hope at Del Mar back in November, with a 90 chalked up ... looks to me like a stone sprinter, and Rosario gonna send from jump ... he's also trained by Baffert, so maybe we get some setup here for TW again ... but this horse can hold on if the favorite doesn't fire. 3/1 ml if you feel the neeeed for speeeeed. he's gonna hafta to wire 'em if he plans on taking pictures at races end.    another contender is the #3, Tizmagician ... 3/1 ml for Mandela/Victor E ... finally popped his cherry in his sixth start 4 weeks ago - he's been firing mid 80s to 90 (top fig, hit twice) ... drilled a stellar 5f work for this one, today will be first try at this distance ... chops to crash the exacta, but can't see him taking TW down, lest we get a clunker out the fave.   the #1 Encoder comes in 8/1 for Smiff/Sadler ... killed his last work, has the kick and speed to pick this field up if they falter - he'll be coming late, if High Velocity backs up, be sure it'll be this horse challenging TW and Tiz if they are staying on ...  NOTE: will be his first start over dirt, kid's been a cabbage cutter through his 6 race career ... works over dirt have been very good, especially the one i mentioned (5f in 60 flat).  interesting spot for his surface debut ... most intriguing cat of the challengers, imo.  

:deadhorse:
Keep it up OTB. appreciate your insight 

 
:kicksrock:

Thousand Words took the Robert B Lewis. As expected. 

I'm an owner of Tizamagician so I was hoping for a miracle, but, it's not to be. It's been a wild month, just breaking our maiden on New Year's Day and suddently getting mentioned as a Derby contender two days later. William Hill's futures even listed us, opening up at 150-1 to win the Derby right after that race, and getting down as low as 40-1 this week. When I got that ownership group email that we declared our eligibility for the Triple Crown, I couldn't help but catch a little Derby Fever.

At least I'll get my share of the 4th place prize, might be a couple of bucks. And, hell, we got a Derby point, so I'll always have that. Finished second behind Honor AP and Wrecking Crew already, just not Tiz's year.

But if he keeps grinding out some money finishes, I'll be happy with my boy. Already looking forward to his next time out, if we aim him right he can still run. Looked good early today and I thought the added distance would help us, but, Thousand Words is just that good. Played it smart and stalked behind us stalking High Velocity. Pushed inside us on the final turn and got into great position for the victory.
Great experience Boot, that’s awesome!

Keep us posted on when your Hoss is going to run again. Good luck!

 
- Tizthelaw is gonna be the fun of this Derby trail, fo sho. Nothing he can't do, nothing he won't do. 

- i've seen better running in $7500 claimers @ Thistledown than in the Withers.

- GL w Tizamagician, Walking Boot. One of the great pleasures of my life was riding the highs & lows of thoroughbred ownership (tho on a much smaller circuit than you) - tiz a feeling worth affording. Has he been tried on the green? Looks like he has that kind of action. All the best -

 
- Tizthelaw is gonna be the fun of this Derby trail, fo sho. Nothing he can't do, nothing he won't do. 
kinda cat that could either run backwards out the KD gate, or wire 'em in record time - would love to see him & Maxfield mix it up, but the latter still recovering. 

- i've seen better running in $7500 claimers @ Thistledown than in the Withers.
once Tiz opted for Florida it was all over up here, as far as pizazz/timber/####s to give ... i was no believer in Shotski or his 98 fig - just wish i landed on the other Rice entrant.

- GL w Tizamagician, Walking Boot. One of the great pleasures of my life was riding the highs & lows of thoroughbred ownership (tho on a much smaller circuit than you) - tiz a feeling worth affording. Has he been tried on the green? Looks like he has that kind of action. All the best -
:thumbup:

excited to see his next race, Boot!

 
Back in the 90's, my Sis came across a thoroughbred that had been claimed by some nitwits in a low stakes race. 

The nibs fed him full of steroids, worked him out way too little & let his hooves go. 

So, we bought him in his next claims race. 

Sis stopped the roids, tended the hooves and worked the track well. 

We sold him to some real trainers bout a year later - at cost. 

He went on to win a race later that year. I'm sure it was something minor. 

Anyways, last I heard, he had an acceptable career. I don't have a name. I'll ask Sis if she remembers. 

And, that's it irt to my ownership career. 

GL WB. 

 
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I kept a pretty decent seat on a horse when i was only John Wayne size (thank you, cocaine) during my horse-ranching phase. Now that i've passed Vince Wilfork, yeah, i pity the mule...

 
Serious: my sis & I grew up riding paints & quarters mostly. 

I went on to motorcycles, but Sis kept with the horses and became quite an accomplished rider. She had to quit because of bad knees about 10 years ago. Though, if necessary, I bet she could still make a decent lap time. 

 
Yeah, as it was happening I could totally see what Victor E was trying to do with Tiz. Keep him close to HV and block out TW from getting past him. Tiz took that last turn a half step too wide, got that bump from TW, and that's all TW needed to get the win. We're proud of Tiz for holding his composure after taking the hit and staying in the race. And he got a 104 for the effort.
it was a very honest effort  :thumbup:  getting outdueled by two of the (current) GOAT's trained horses, at Santa Anita, is a badge of honor going forward. 

i still contend that HV opened the path for TW ... Tiz didn't give much of an inch on the bump, but TW had the 2 path open wide once HV dove to the rail ... stablemates, ya know?

Oh, I forgot to add. 

My Sis is nearly wikkid's size. 

She was a taxing jockey, for sure. 


I kept a pretty decent seat on a horse when i was only John Wayne size (thank you, cocaine) during my horse-ranching phase. Now that i've passed Vince Wilfork, yeah, i pity the mule...
👀 

MoCS teeing it up ...

Serious: my sis & I grew up riding paints & quarters mostly. 

I went on to motorcycles, but Sis kept with the horses and became quite an accomplished rider. She had to quit because of bad knees about 10 years ago. Though, if necessary, I bet she could still make a decent lap time. 
did you exercise ride motorsickles?  is that a thing?

:shrug:

 
BSFs ...

Withers 86

Lewis 92

Bull 100

Tiz is sittin' pretty with 22 accumulated Derby points ... usual cut has been right in that vicinity, safe to say he's in atm. 

interesting to note that his next probable start is listed as the Louisiana Derby (3/21) ... so Tagg's gonna get outta Florida (Fountain of Youth/Fla. Derby), effectively icing this cat for 7 weeks, then waiting another 6 for the Derby ... can't fault them, i guess, as just finishing 4th in La. clinches it.  still think him and Franco need some work with traffic and breaking smartly ... KD gonna have 19 other animals, of much higher quality than has been seen.  still think he's the class of the crop as of this morning (Maxfield still working back) ... should easily be top choice on next futures, which come out on Friday.  

no word yet on Ete Indien, who i think can be a valuable early speed asset in Churchill.

meanwhile, Thousand Words is pointed to the San Felipe (3/7) - other possibles for that one include Authentic and Royal Act, who i'm very high on after that great stretch rally in the Lewis - will only be the son of American Pharaoh's 3rd start, 2nd on dirt. 

 
otb_lifer said:
👀

did you exercise ride motorsickles?  is that a thing?

:shrug:
LOL. 

Well, the 1st bike that I built myself ('70 Triumph Cafe racer) could be considered worthy of the "exercise" tag. 

On my maiden ride, I blew a hole in a piston. After a rebuild, my head gasket spewed oil like a Texas gusher. 

By my 3rd rebuild, (with help from a machinist/mechanic), the nag held up. 

Exercise success! 

I soon went to Hondas. The reliability was a revelation. From there on out, it was exercise for me, as the "crotch rocket" riding position is pretty similar to a jockey stance. 

I sold my last bike in '16. It was a ride. 

 
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LOL. 

Well, the 1st bike that I built myself ('70 Triumph Cafe racer) could be considered worthy of the "exercise" tag. 

On my maiden ride, I blew a hole in a piston. After a rebuild, my head gasket spewed oil like a Texas gusher. 

By my 3rd rebuild, (with help from a machinist/mechanic), the nag held up. 

Exercise success! 

I soon went to Hondas. The reliability was a revelation. From there on out, it was exercise for me, as the "crotch rocket" riding position is pretty similar to a jockey stance. 

I sold my last bike in '16. It was a ride. 
MoCS!!

🏍

 
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Futures Pool #2 PPs  (Bris)

window officially opens on Friday at noon, iirc ... closes Sunday at 6 pm.

posting this not necessarily as a betting opportunity, but more to gauge how the potential field is being viewed, some 3 months out from the Derby. 

quick impressions on some who i am watching closely ...

Maxfield - lotta respect being tossed this cat's way ... 15/1, yet we still have no word on how sound he is/isn't,  no viable timetable for next outing ... odds pretty steep, they're not gonna let him drift up too far, that's how dangerous he is - all peripherals considered, i contend that this price shows that, if he were active, he'd be the favorite. 

Tiz the Law - 8/1 sets him up as fave, and only single digit animal ... come 12 weeks we may be drooling at getting these kinda odds, especially if he takes care of biz in Lousiana- chances are that 3/1, 5/2 will be the price on Derby day, if all goes according to plan.  deserving of this placing, he really has been the star of the early going ... but, man, he's the most mercurial wackadoo at this level that we've seen in years ... enough to LOVE to consider 8/1 a ####in' gift, yet enough head scratching antics to totally lay off.  i'm still not thrilled about Franco, but there is no way in hell they're gonna jump ship at this juncture ... the pair are growing together, for better or worse. 

Storm the Court - hasn't been out since winning the Juvey 3 months ago ... was slated for the Lewis but got yanked ... seeing the San Vicente (?) as his next probable - dunno if they go that route, would be surprised if he's running in that one.  currently sitting at a reasonable 30/1 ... don't think the Derby distance is gonna be a problem, his breeding suggests he can go get it.  a verrrrrrry live prospect at this stage, i like this horse very much. 

Nadal - taking the Justify route for Baffert?  early February, and only one race under his belt, a 6.5f 55k Maiden at Santa Anita, which he won comfortably by roughly 4 lengths (94 fig) - the oddsmakers think so, seeing as how he's 3rd choice at 12/1, strictly on the promise exhibited/Baffert/Sire (Blame) - so we know he's bred to get the classic distance ... as i opined in my previous post highlighting him, i expect Baffert to take the Oaklawn route ... and, yep, next up is the Southwest Stakes on 2/17 - pretty loaded field (Gouverneur Morris, Silver Prospector, Shoplifted, Gold Street) ... gonna tell us all we need to know about this cat - much like Tiz, we may be kicking and screaming for this kinda price in May ... but we got a lotta racing to do to get there, of course ... he could also totally crap the #### out, but ... the connections/pedigree are so strong - i think he's gonna be huge from here on out. 

Anneau d'Or - a gutsy sumbee, this is the kinda horse ya build a deep exotic around ... the son of Medaglia d'Oro has been a hard luck loser in his past 2 outings, getting clipped in the stretch by both Thousand Words and Storm the Court - has the speed and class to hang around for a very nice piece underneath ... if i had to build my tri key box this morning, this is the cat i would definitely be featuring.   30/1 for the win in this pool, and, while he'll be slagged as catching a severe case of "seconditis", i would not totally discount a flat out first place finish - he's shown the propensity to make sense outta hot paces and field meltdowns. next up is a very loaded Risen Star on 2/15 (Scabbard, Lynn's Map, Silver Slate, Blackberry Wine, Enforceable) ... be here that morning to catch ya boy constructing a ticket around this honest engine. 

yeah, it's still early ... but things are getting a bit more focused ... the 5/2 for the field is a #### bet, imo ... that's the only sure thing i can say about this pool. 

 
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Sam Davis down in Tampa today, one of the last 10/4/2/1 preps, highlighted by the return of undefeated 10/1 futures darling Independence Hall. 

track is playing to speed, as usual - would expect a few turbos added on for the day's card ... it's a bullring fo' sho' - but i'll be damned if they don't love to soup these muthas up.

so, yeah ... expect a very hot early pace (sub :23 and sub :44 should be cake) - which may pose a slight problem for the 6/5 ml fave - IH has had some breaking issues, and there may be a couple here who could make him pay if that continues, most notably the #6 horse Premier Star, who has speed to spare, but is taking his first stab at a route (1m) this afternoon, and also taking a giant leap up in class.   he will undoubtedly be the pacesetter, and can make IH work a bit harder than necessary if his antics keep up.  hot rod enuff to stick around for exotics, and capable of toppling this field if the worst case scenario plays out for the fave.  3/1 ml.

the speed has been holding up pretty well down there, but if this one melts, vis a vis PS laying some suicidal splits, and IH frantically scrambling off of another break mishap, then we have two closers up in here who can pick it up - the #1 Ajaaweed closed deep his last out, chasing Shotski home in the Remsen - note that there was zero pace to that one :-)50 half), but he made an honest late bid - zero pace won't be the case today, i assure you. very live. 4/1 ml.

right next to him in the 2 hole is Sole Volante, who was last seen hangin' a c-note up for his third place rally in the Mucho Macho, which was his first start on dirt (two previous races were wins over the spinach). blew out a 5f work in :58 on 2/3 in prepping for this one  :eek:  8/1 ml is juicy, and i expect both him and Ajaaweed to be pickin' up fools in the stretch. VERY live at that price. 

the #8 Chapalu merits a mention due to the Russel Baze of Tampa, Daniel Centeno, in the irons, and a 30% win clip for the trainer at this condition (90+ days since last out).  won that one, the G3 Grey up at Woodbine. this will be his first start on dirt (2 turf, one AW). will be his fourth different rider, and opting for Centenno in Tampa is quantum ... guy always seems to answer the bell. dunno, this cat could be sitting on a monster - speed figs are modest, but he hasn't raced on a souped up dirt track yet. works have been ok.  8/1 ml seems fair. 

tough to buck the chalk here, as IH is clearly the class, and worked well in prep ... will be his first try at two turns, but his sustained motor is easily the hugest in the field ... much like Tiz in the Holy Bull, if he breaks clean, he can toy with 'em. 

speaking of Tiz, we now have confirmation that Tagg is eschewing the earlier Louisiana Derby and opting for Florida, instead ... the Fla. Derby will go on 3/28, which will give Tiz that 5 week sweet spot prior to Churchill.   that is gonna be one massive prep, as i expect Independence Hall to be in that starting gate, as well.  

:deadhorse:

 
the speed has been holding up pretty well down there, but if this one melts, vis a vis PS laying some suicidal splits, and IH frantically scrambling off of another break mishap, then we have two closers up in here who can pick it up - the #1 Ajaaweed closed deep his last out, chasing Shotski home in the Remsen - note that there was zero pace to that one :-)50 half), but he made an honest late bid - zero pace won't be the case today, i assure you. very live. 4/1 ml.

right next to him in the 2 hole is Sole Volante, who was last seen hangin' a c-note up for his third place rally in the Mucho Macho, which was his first start on dirt (two previous races were wins over the spinach). blew out a 5f work in :58 on 2/3 in prepping for this one  :eek:  8/1 ml is juicy, and i expect both him and Ajaaweed to be pickin' up fools in the stretch. VERY live at that price. 
Sole Volante Takes It Doowwwnnn!

early pace from Premier Star and Chapalu, as expected ... not as hot as i anticipated, but respectable enough. 

IH buried those two at the 3/4, and had the inside turning for the stretch ... but LOOK THE #### OUT - here comes that #2, Sole Volante ... and, man, did he measure the fave, or what? WHAT.A.MOVE.!!  IH under some frantic stick as he's absolutely breezed on by ... Sole looked fresh and full of run, easily had another furlong (or two?) in him ... crossed that line like a champ - this was a very nice debut on the points trail for this cat, who did make the necessary move forward off his 3rd in the Mucho Macho ... we know he has the speed, and it certainly looks as if the distance isn't gonna be an issue.  great job outta him, loved it  :thumbup:

Ajaaweed did, once again, rally from deep to bottom out the tri, but was back perhaps a handful of lengths ... might be curtains for him moving forward, as far as Churchill is concerned. 

no excuses for IH ... he broke beautifully, and rated nicely off the front two ... perhaps moved a bit too early? dunno. there were no glaring issues traffic wise, etc - maybe a bit too rank, looked like Ortiz was choking him.  he really wanted to GO!

meanwhile, we gots a BLOCKBUSTER at Santa Anita today ... Nadal and Storm the Court hook up in the G2 San Vicente.

was curious to see that this would be StC's first out since taking down the Juvey last November ... kicking off his 3 yr old campaign with a 7f sprint seems a bit outta place here, but connections obviously feel confident enough in procuring points going forward (this is not a Derby points affair, none of the sprint races are).  he was nominated for last week's Lewis (Derby pts/route), but opted out for this spot. 

i'm very keen on this cat's Derby timber, his works have been good leading up ... love this test for him today, as he gets to look the Baffert Bullet straight in the snout. 

Nadal wheels back for this one some three weeks after his eye popping debut over this same track at 6.5f ... he's being heavily pimped as a Justify-esque type, and his maiden race did not disappoint.  

was nominated for the Southwest at Oaklawn (2/17), but here we are, instead ... Baffert has nominated him for the Rebel (3/14), though ... so the Oaklawn route is still in the cards ... been working nicely coming into the San Vicente - a very imposing piece o'horse flesh here. 

6 are entered, but the star power dwarfs the other 4 considerably ... would be shocked at anything but a cold exacta.  

50% chance of rain for this one, would seem to play in Nadal's favor ... can't see any scenario where he's not sent from jump ... StC is gonna have a few questions answered today, this is a very daunting spot for his campaign kickoff ... can he stay close enough?  is Nadal too quick, especially at this distance? we know StC can run a patient race, but the favorite may make this affair a bit more urgent ..  really lookin' forward to this one.  

:deadhorse:

 
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Nadal currently 1/9, Storm the Court 9/2 - 5 minutes away ...

ETA: 2 mins to go - 1/5, 7/2 respectively

 
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it's NADAL in the San Vicente

blistering opening 1/4 (21.81), StC was hustled out, but was swallowed up by Nadal and Ginobli, who ran a YUUUUUGE one, staying on Nadal's ### the whole way ... the 1/5 fave takes it by prolly a bit less than a length. 

StC hung for 4th.

 
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San Vicente

Nadal punches the clock, Ginobli runs his heart out ... Storm the Court bolts, then attends, then fades, then walks home in 4th. 

they busted out to some sizzling early pace, then tailed off for sure (final 3f in roughly :39) ... as game as Ginobli was, never once felt Nadal was in any danger here.   and, not for nuttin' - but that is one huge animal Baffert has.

wither StC?  paid work for his 3 yr old debut ... dialing back in distance, no points at stake, sent early ... quizzical all around ... but, wtf do i know - i can't even train my hair, let alone a T'bred.  

think Nadal is gonna relish the 2 turn stretches ... we'll see him in Oaklawn next month for the Rebel - bagged a 107 Equibase fig for this one. definitely held serve on this 3 week whellback - lotta promise here. 

 
San Vicente

Nadal punches the clock, Ginobli runs his heart out ... Storm the Court bolts, then attends, then fades, then walks home in 4th. 

they busted out to some sizzling early pace, then tailed off for sure (final 3f in roughly :39) ... as game as Ginobli was, never once felt Nadal was in any danger here.   and, not for nuttin' - but that is one huge animal Baffert has.

wither StC?  paid work for his 3 yr old debut ... dialing back in distance, no points at stake, sent early ... quizzical all around ... but, wtf do i know - i can't even train my hair, let alone a T'bred.  

think Nadal is gonna relish the 2 turn stretches ... we'll see him in Oaklawn next month for the Rebel - bagged a 107 Equibase fig for this one. definitely held serve on this 3 week whellback - lotta promise here. 
almost dont know what the point of that was, but it was impressive. Beating a sprinter (ginobli very nice, but likely wont stretch) at sprinting is cool but heightens the possibility of a bounce and, while the 7f once-over that StC had used to be a thing on the Derby trail, it's not a good move if you're only doing 2-3 preps. we dont have to worry about Derby pace now, tho, when one of the faves can breeze off a 21q

 
almost dont know what the point of that was, but it was impressive. Beating a sprinter (ginobli very nice, but likely wont stretch) at sprinting is cool but heightens the possibility of a bounce and, while the 7f once-over that StC had used to be a thing on the Derby trail, it's not a good move if you're only doing 2-3 preps. we dont have to worry about Derby pace now, tho, when one of the faves can breeze off a 21q
StC just has to hit the bored in his next prep to qualify ... but, yeah, as i stated when i first got wind of this entry, it was kinda puzzling. dunno. 

as far as Derby pace, we should have plenty this year, and i think Nadal is now gonna get a lesson in rating down in Hot Springs ... a second place finish gives him a gate - think it's time to school just a bit ... if this cat is laying down a :21.3/43.2 split in Churchill it'll shock me. 

have ya checked out Sole Volante's score in the Davis?  gotdamn can he get after it ...

 

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