wgoldsph
Footballguy
I don't think Brown will actually play again, much to the chagrin of every qb who would love to have one of the best wrs of the past decade to throw to. Gordon will probably be back though.
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Official Seahawks 'Wheels Coming Off the Bus' thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter meatwad1
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
I expect Gordon to play for Seattle, but not Brown. I also expect Seattle will sign either Clowney or Everson Griffen. If they do, they will be a legit contender for the #1 seed in the NFC.
I think Brown is their 1st choice. They have been in constant contact with him, Wilson has campaigned for him, and Carroll is exact type of coach to give him a clean slate. If he doesn't end up in Seattle, its likely only because somebody offers him a truckload of money(Washington?) or he actually follows through with retirement.
If they can make it work with the cap, I think Clowney or Griffin is likely as well. Frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if all 4 were brought in, other than Clowney, the other 3 are likely getting some Cam Newton like incentive laden deals. Actually, Gordon may not even get that, like vet minimum is possible.
I'm of 2 minds with this deal. Which probably means it makes some sense for both sides. Though it looks better from the Jets perspective.
On the one hand, Jamal Adams is arguably the best defensive back in the NFL. He was just on an awful team. He was the Jets best tackler, best cover guy, and best pass rusher. He could easily be the Earl Thomas replacement that Seattle has needed, and his presence, combined with some promising young players, could lead to a defensive resurgence for Seattle, especially in the back 7.
On the other hand, he's in the last year of his deal, and is going to want to be paid as the best DB in the NFL. He's certainly got a compelling case, with what they gave up to acquire him, much like Jalen Ramsey does in LA, and Laremy Tunsil had in Houston. Tunsil got a contract worth probably double what he is worth(in part because they paid double what he is worth to get him, but that's another matter) and is the highest paid OL in the NFL.
The other issue is, when have these trades worked out for the team getting the player? Especially when the player isn't a QB?
Are the Texans a contender with Tunsil? I don't think so.
Are the Rams a contender with Ramsey? I don't think so.
Are the Bears a contender with Mack? I don't think so.
Now, the Seahawks are a better team than any of those teams, but recent history is not on their side at all.
Also, the recent examples I've used, has also lead to those teams getting rid of some very good players, to pay for these new additions.
The Texans parting with Clowney and Hopkins can both be drawn to acquiring Tunsil(and an impending Watson extension)
The Rams parting with Peters, Littleton, Cooks, and perhaps Gurley(though his contract was always problematic) can be attributed to making room for Ramsey.
The Bears haven't been hit quite as hard, but still lost Amos, Ha Ha(Amos cheaper/less effective replacement), Amukamara, and Callahan, which has turned their secondary from a strength to a weakness, potentially a glaring one if Johnson doesn't pan out.
One wonders if Seattle won't have a similar path. Its easy to see guys like KJ Wright, Chris Carson, Quentin Dunbar, Shaquill Griffin (all impending FA's) being tough to re-sign, as well as high priced vets, like say, Duane Brown. Of course Seattle has Russell Wilson(and Carroll to a lesser extent) so they may be more able to survive such losses.
rockaction
Footballguy
trav, I think he has at least two more years left. Yeah, his out is after 2021. Seattle holds a 9.86 million dollar option on his for 2021. He's got this year and next. Then he's a UFA.
True, but its hard to imagine him being content playing for 2 years under his current deal. I can't imagine just getting off the Jets is going to lead to a 2 year honeymoon period.
rockaction
Footballguy
You're thinking? Cool. 
Pulled from this source. I usually use this one.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jamal-adams-21747/
eta* That wasn't snarky, btw. I thought he had three years left including this one.
Pulled from this source. I usually use this one. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jamal-adams-21747/
eta* That wasn't snarky, btw. I thought he had three years left including this one.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, absolutely and we brought that up in the Jets thread as a negative for Seattle. He's going to want to be paid. And soon. Wait until he starts talking extension before the option.
Tau837
Footballguy
He has already indicated that he and the team will revisit his contract next offseason. So no worries for 2020. I fully expect Seattle to extend his contract in the 2021 offseason, but it will be an extension, meaning his cap number (relative to his expected value on the field) will still be very good. Beyond the 2021 season, who knows? We don't know what the cap will look like (negative due to COVID or positive due to new TV deals) or what the Seahawks roster will look like. It is really useless to speculate on that.
I like the deal for Seattle for a number of reasons:
- They gave up draft picks that are 1 and 2 years from now. They get Adams now.
- All draft picks are uncertain. Just look at Seattle's first round picks in the past 3-4 seasons.
Furthermore, 2022 and, especially, 2021 draft picks are more uncertain than usual due to COVID (e.g., how likely is a college football season in 2020?).
[*]Adams is a proven All Pro caliber player who is 24 years old. Any team would be lucky to draft that caliber player once while using 2 first round picks... especially considering the Seahawks first round picks are likely to be late first round picks.
[*]Russell Wilson is 32. The time to push for a championship is now, not years from now.
[*]Similarly, Carroll is 69 IIRC. For him, the time to push for a championship is now. He probably only has 1-3 years left as the Seahawks head coach. And, who knows, maybe that means GM John Schneider has some urgency as well.
[*]This could help convince either Clowney or Griffen to sign with Seattle, which would really boost their defense. If that happens, they could have their best defense in 3-4 years. That would make them a legit contender for the #1 seed in the NFC.
Fortune favors the bold!
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Tau837
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
I think Gordon is their first choice, for multiple reasons.
- They already know he fits the team, culture, etc.
- Gordon is likely to be eligible to play more games than Brown, who is expected to face a "lengthy" suspension if and when he plays again. Some of Gordon's issues in the past related to MJ, and the league has relaxed its stance on that, implying that some of those wouldn't happen under the new CBA.
- Gordon is likely to be cheaper. Brown signed 2 contracts last year: 3 years, $50M with the Raiders and 1 year, $10M with the Patriots. Gordon signed 1 contract last year: 1 year, $2M with the Patriots. It seems very likely Gordon will sign for $1-2M. No way Brown plays for that with his ego.
Tau837
Footballguy
This is typical lousy ESPN reporting. The Seahawks may be out on Clowney, but not because obtaining Adams makes a difference in their ability to sign Clowney to a one year deal. The trade is cap neutral.
They currently have ~$14M in available cap space, though some of that must be reserved for IR replacements and practice squad players. They could easily free up more if they need to - just convert some of Wilson's $18M 2020 salary to a pro-rated bonus.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Jets got robbed.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Are you kidding or confused? The Jets robbed Seattle of their two 1st rd picks for a damn safety.
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
You have your opinion. i have mine. Those picks will be in the 20s. That's an absolute steal.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I don’t understand how you can have such a strong opinion here. Seems a reasonable argument can be made for both sides here. Perhaps a good trade for both teams?
rockaction
Footballguy
Those picks aren't necessarily in the twenties. There's more than a feeling that with a +7 point differential on the year, Seattle takes a step back.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hooper31
Footballguy
You should check out the info Chase is sharing on Twitter today with safeties and super bowl success. An interesting analysis.
http://twitter.com/fbgchase/status/1287408855945818114
Hooper31
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Considering what we already know about Adams says a great deal. His talent level is through the roof. Money well spent all things considered.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hooper31
Footballguy
Would the question have a different answer if it was in reference to transcendent talents at the position as opposed to the average safety or average CB?
Tau837
Footballguy
You may have that feeling, but I don't.
First of all, here is their draft position for the past 5 drafts:
- 2020 - #27
- 2019 - #29
- 2018 - #27
- 2017 - #26
- 2016 - #31
As for that point differential, it was primarily due to being #22 in points allowed. Look at the changes on defense:
- Clowney gone... for now. Huge downgrade unless they sign him or Everson Griffen, which I expect.
- Adams replaces McDougald. Huge upgrade.
- Starting FS Diggs should play more games; he was obtained via trade midseason 2019 and played 5 regular season games for Seattle last season but had PFF's second-highest grade on the defense.
- Starting IDL Reed should play more games; he missed 6 games due to suspension in 2019. He could also rebound, since his play dropped off last season, perhaps related to the suspension.
- Signed edge rushers Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa.
- Traded for CB Dunbar. If he plays, he should be an upgrade.
- Drafted LB Jordyn Brooks in the first round, DE Darrell Taylor in the second round, and DE Alton Robinson in the fifth round.
- Last year's first round pick, edge rusher Collier, was terrible as a rookie but could improve.
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I 100% agree that Seattle will end up with Gordon, frankly I'm not sure anyone else is all that interested.
I do think they'd prefer Brown, simply because he's a much better player.
We do see it somewhat similarly though. I'd say 99% on Gordon and probably about 50% on Brown.
Not to mention Quinton Dunbar, who was an elite CB last year for Washington, although he has some off field issues at the moment.
rockaction
Footballguy
Holy crow is that an understatement. It's worse than it originally was as they're now being accused of witness tampering and payoffs. It's really bad.
I would say that Reed and Diggs playing more games is likely the biggest difference for them according to most media outlets (I can't speak as an expert on the Hawks or their defense.) I do know people were stunned by the pick of Jordyn Brooks (I play IDP so I follow that side of the ball now), so it shouldn't be written in pen that he's ready to step in effectively in any way. Plus, K.J. Wright just had knee surgery in the offseason. Clowney being there makes a huge difference. We'll see what his absence means. Let's see how these guys hold up before we anoint them anything.
Tau837
Footballguy
Lost him in my editing process.
I just don't see how they can pay Gordon, Brown, and Clowney/Griffen, and believe Brown ends up as the odd man out.
Certainly, it would be great for their offense to have all of Lockett, Metcalf, Gordon, Brown, and Olsen. Would that mean Pete would actually take the shackles off the passing game before the 4th quarter?
Tau837
Footballguy
I didn't anoint them. I asserted that the defense will be improved. The point was to refute your assertion that Seattle is on the verge of enough of a step back that their 2021 and/or 2022 draft position is better than the twenties (i.e., 19th or higher). I'm pretty confident that will not be the case.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was indeed saying that they might -- might -- regress to the point of missing the playoffs. I don't think I'm too far off on that one. Both PFF and Barnwell talked about potential for regression given their point differential, the loss of Clowney, and the potential jailing of Dunbar.
Tau837
Footballguy
Anything is possible. But it's pretty unlikely IMO. Obviously those PFF and Barnwell talked about those things before Seattle obtained Adams, which is a hugely impactful move. And before they sign Clowney, Griffen, Gordon, and/or Brown, assuming one or more of those things happens... which would also be hugely impactful. So things have changed and likely will change again.
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rockaction
Footballguy
PFF and Barnwell both wrote in-depth articles this morning about the trade, specifically discussing Seattle's acquisition of Adams and what it meant for their defense. That was the impetus for both articles. That's sort of what I'm talking about. None of this conversation happens at these publications without the deal, really.Anything is possible. But it's pretty unlikely IMO. Obviously those PFF and Barnwell talked about those things before Seattle obtained Adams, which is a hugely impactful move. And before they sign Clowney, Griffen, Gordon, and/or Brown, assuming one or more of those things happens... which would also be hugely impactful. So things have changed and likely will change again.
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I’m not sure it is mandatory one side has to be “the one that got screwed”. Both teams got what they wanted. Jets rid of a headache and were well compensated with a lesser safety, two first rounders, and a move up from a 4th into the 3rd. Jets fans are happy as they see long term reward at building up their squad. Seattle gets an all pro safety to enable them to better compete now. They can rebuild there D now with an investment at DE. Sounds wonderful if you are a Seattle fan, your organization is in compete now mode.
It is possible a trade can be good for both teams.
It is possible a trade can be good for both teams.
I really don't see Gordon getting much more than the league minimum. I don't think his addition would impact anything they do financially.
I think Carroll may take the shackles off a bit anyway. They've made illusions to it all offseason, coming from Carroll, Wilson, and Schottenhiemer. I mean, they are never going to become an offense among the league leaders in pass attempts, but I think its not unrealistic for them to be much more middle of the pack, as opposed to being among the league leaders in rushing attempts.
I personally see Seattle as a very legit Super Bowl contender, and I think they feel that way too. They know they are in their window.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I think you’re discounting HOW Seattle wants to function as a team. Running the ball and controlling the clock allows the defense to rest. Do they want to score a lot? Sure, but they want the defense to be elite, and that requires both sides of the ball complimenting the other. They don’t hesitate to “open up” the defense because they don’t trust Wilson. They don’t do it because they have the entire team in mind. Seattle has been very consistent with this philosophy over the past 10 years.
I'm just going by what the coaches and Wilson have been saying since last season ended.
Tau837
Footballguy
This prompted me to read the Barnwell article. I like him, and it's a good article. I don't really agree with his methodology of calculating surplus value at all, however. I think Seattle is clearly a Super Bowl contender if they add another pass rusher as I have mentioned a few times. If they add Clowney, I think they are the favorite to win the NFC. We'll see about that.
PFF is down right now, but I linked an article earlier. I thought that article made a lot of great points about how impactful Adams will be. I'll have to revisit once the site is back up to see what it said about regression or likelihood Seattle can compete for the Super Bowl.
rockaction
Footballguy
Cool on the first. I'm not so sure about his surplus value calculation either.
This is indeed the PFF article I was talking about. Amazing how we can take away different things from the same text. I'll chalk it up to cognitive filtering on my end, I guess. When I saw the win shares calculation , the subtraction of Clowney's win share from the equation, and they closed the paragraph with point differential and potential regression therefrom, maybe I glazed over the impact that they were showing Adams will have for them.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, Seattle has been very consistent with Carroll's philosophy unless forced out of it due to injuries or game situations. I'm afraid that once again they will not change it unless forced.
It is unfortunate. IMO they definitely could add 1-3 wins if they passed a bit more and attempted to be less predictable on offense. Instead, Carroll stubbornly sticks to his philosophy that worked great when he had Lynch in his prime and the best defense in the league, but hasn't worked nearly as well when the running game and defense were not as strong, despite the fact that Wilson is one of the top few QBs in the NFL and in his prime.
The 49ers and Ravens are the only two current contenders equipped to win that way. The Seahawks aren't.
Seattle was #9 in points scored and #8 in total offensive yards last season. Their passing offense was #23 in attempts but #6 in expected points added. Their rushing offense was #3 in attempts but #25 in expected points added. The defense was #22 in yards allowed and #26 in points allowed. While I believe the defense will improve in 2020, looking at this 2019 data shows that these aren't the 2013-2014 Seahawks, but Pete acts like they are.
Don't think it's close they'd prefer AB if he was able to play. Gordon is a shell of himself, AB is still one of the best WR's in the game. Your 90/10 prediction might work out because it's not looking great for AB to get cleared to sign with anyone, but it's not by Seattle's choice.
About how I feel in light of Seattle's acumen for drafting in later rounds but not so great with their first round picks. I normally hate paying premium picks for a player you have to pay premium money to. In many ways this deal is like the Colts acquiring Buckner, both teams got a great player who should help them a ton but I have a hard time loving giving up that cheap first round labor to have to pay big money, especially with the looming cap cuts.
But Adams should flourish in this defense and with the way Seattle drafts, as you said, this might make sense.
For the Jets it seems like a no brainer. This deal may have been almost agreed to before Adams latest outburst but that situation was toxic, Jets are going nowhere but should have a lot of cap space and load of picks which will help when they make Darnold a $30+M a year player.
Yes, you got it exactly. I don’t think Seattle is bad at drafting, but they’re better at finding mid round gems. Adams should strengthen their d enough to be an NFC competitor. 2 1s for a safety is excellent value by the new Jets GM and should allow them to quickly build around Darnold assuming he’s their guy.
