If there are 5000 entries, that gives the average entry 1/5000 chance of winning. So my strategy was to throw a hail mary when deciding on which teams I'll take to the SB in this contest. I figure the Chiefs have about a 1 in 25 chance of making the SB while the Seahawks have about a 1 in 4 chance. So I think there's about a 100 to 1 chance of the SB being Cheifs vs Seahawks. Therefore, if I choose more Cheifs and Seahawks players than anyone else, which seems pretty easy to do considering nobody thinks KC has a chance, then my entry should have a 100 to 1 chance of winning this contest. That is assuming I can make it to the final round.
The last thing I wanted to do was diversify my entry with a few of the best from each team, ensuring that my absolute best possible scenario would be finishing around 50th place...behind those teams that focused on the teams who ended up making the SB. After all, well under 1% of entries will end up winning $ in this contest, so there's no logical choice but to go super heavy on two teams.
So my strategy was to make sure I can pass through to the final round and to ensure that if the SB ends up being KC vs Seattle, I'll be all but guaranteed to win 1st place.
QB - Russell Wilson - 27
QB - Alex Smith - 19
RB - Jamaal Charles - 16
RB - Marshawn Lynch - 16
RB - Frank Gore - 14
RB - Eddie Lacy - 10
RB - DeAngelo Williams - 7
RB - Stevan Ridley - 5
WR - Demaryius Thomas - 20
WR - Julian Edelman - 15
WR - Anquan Boldin - 14
WR - Wes Welker - 12
WR - Golden Tate - 12
WR - Jordy Nelson - 11
WR - Dwayne Bowe - 10
TE - Sean McGrath - 3
PK - Steve Hauschka - 10
PK - Ryan Succop - 7
PK - Graham Gano - 6
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - 8
TD - Seattle Seahawks - 8
Total value: 250
Projected score in week 1: 100 points
Projected score in week 2: 180 points
(week 3 and SB don't matter. If KC and Sea are still in it, I figure I'm guaranteed to be at the top of the pile)
So I figure there's about a 1 in 100 chance of me winning 1st place, which is WAY higher than the average 1 in 5,000 chance of the average team.
Go KC! Here's hoping that solid defenses with conservative offenses do well again like last year.
Almost made 2 last-minute changes:
1) Amendola for Ridley and McGrath (Ridley just seemed too tempting)
2) Major overhaul to a NE/SEA SB. The NE RB situation made this too difficult.
Good luck everyone.