QB Anthony Richardson, IND (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

I see a guy who throws a great deep ball,

He has a very strong arm but I am not sure he throws a great deep ball. He can throw a pretty ball deep but the 3-4 game films I watched don't really suggest he was throwing his guys open 30+ yards down field.

Considering those are low % throws to begin with I have trouble putting high 1st round value on a player that is wildly inconsistent (inaccurate) in the short to intermediate game, where the vast majority of passing action takes place in the NFL.

He has the kind of measurables that make coaches salivate for sure, but he is incredibly raw and wildly inconsistent. IMO he is just as likely to be a coach killer as a franchise savior.

If he ends up with the Giants or Chiefs I would have incredibly high hopes for him but I am not sure which other franchises have coaches in place who could turn this this guy into a consistent NFL QB.

All that being said, I think he is absolutely a worthwhile prospect in the late teens to early 2nd round.

Haven’t watched enough of Richardson’s film to form an opinion. But just glancing over his PFF profile:

• Run Grade 84.8 7th/112 qualifying QBs
• Pass Grade 70.5 136th/269

Then the draft guide shows:

• Intermediate Passing 85.8
• Deep Passing 93.1
• No Pressure 84.5
• Pressure grade 41.9

For comparison, those last 4 for other QBs:

• Young - 94.2-95.0-93.2-67.5
• Levis - 67.4-70.0-71.7-54.1
• Stroud - 75.3-94.2-92.9-43.9

As I said, haven’t seen him play enough. His 6 highest graded games were Utah (82.1), Tennessee (78.6), Eastern Washington (94.2), LSU (76.0), Texas A&M (86.2), and Vanderbilt (84.7).

edit - formatting

Pressure grades stand out to me for this class of 1st round prospects as being mediocre to ****.

Pressure grades tend to be the most inconsistent year to year and have the least value in my opinion. That said, Young's grade is actually pretty good. Young, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask are the only QB's in the last 3 years to top a 65. Wilson and Trask are the only 2 to top 70, so how valuable is that metric?

In my opinion, I'd rank those metrics in order on importance as 1. Deep 2. Intermediate 3. No Pressure 4. Pressure

 

[LawFitz]

I see a guy who throws a great deep ball,

He has a very strong arm but I am not sure he throws a great deep ball. He can throw a pretty ball deep but the 3-4 game films I watched don't really suggest he was throwing his guys open 30+ yards down field.

Considering those are low % throws to begin with I have trouble putting high 1st round value on a player that is wildly inconsistent (inaccurate) in the short to intermediate game, where the vast majority of passing action takes place in the NFL.

He has the kind of measurables that make coaches salivate for sure, but he is incredibly raw and wildly inconsistent. IMO he is just as likely to be a coach killer as a franchise savior.

If he ends up with the Giants or Chiefs I would have incredibly high hopes for him but I am not sure which other franchises have coaches in place who could turn this this guy into a consistent NFL QB.

All that being said, I think he is absolutely a worthwhile prospect in the late teens to early 2nd round.

Haven’t watched enough of Richardson’s film to form an opinion. But just glancing over his PFF profile:

• Run Grade 84.8 7th/112 qualifying QBs
• Pass Grade 70.5 136th/269

Then the draft guide shows:

• Intermediate Passing 85.8
• Deep Passing 93.1
• No Pressure 84.5
• Pressure grade 41.9

For comparison, those last 4 for other QBs:

• Young - 94.2-95.0-93.2-67.5
• Levis - 67.4-70.0-71.7-54.1
• Stroud - 75.3-94.2-92.9-43.9

As I said, haven’t seen him play enough. His 6 highest graded games were Utah (82.1), Tennessee (78.6), Eastern Washington (94.2), LSU (76.0), Texas A&M (86.2), and Vanderbilt (84.7).

edit - formatting

Pressure grades stand out to me for this class of 1st round prospects as being mediocre to ****.

Pressure grades tend to be the most inconsistent year to year and have the least value in my opinion. That said, Young's grade is actually pretty good. Young, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask are the only QB's in the last 3 years to top a 65. Wilson and Trask are the only 2 to top 70, so how valuable is that metric?

In my opinion, I'd rank those metrics in order on importance as 1. Deep 2. Intermediate 3. No Pressure 4. Pressure

Thanks, appreciate this insight. Curious if you know, how the elite young QBs graded in this metric in college... Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, LJax specifically. Context matters, so any metric in iso isn't an end all, but I do wonder how they fared when it came to performance when pressed.

ETA: relative to the current crop of 2023 prospects

 

[Chaka]

If he gets drafted in the first round (which he will) he's not sitting for years to "develop". That doesn't happen nowadays.

At worst he'll sit most of his rookie season playing in certain packages. If the team he's drafted to is out of playoff contention he'll be starting at the end of year 1.

If they aren't mentally tough enough to make mistakes and learn on the field they likely won't ever pan out. Better to find out early.

That would be a serious mistake. It could ruin him. I've seen him mentally fall apart and that would most likely hurt him mentally.

Are we really judging him entirely based off the Kentucky game?

By that standard it's too late because he's already ruined.

No, but it does show a lack of mental toughness and loss of composure. Is that teachable?

Hey, I have been as skeptical of him as anyone in this thread but don't you think you are being a little harsh? It seems that the entirety of your analysis is based off one game?

Do you view any on the other "top" QBs exclusively through that lens? As @travdogg mentioned CJ Stroud v Northwestern? Is that the entirety of who he is in your opinion?

I'm a Raider fan hoping they don't take Richardson at #7, are you just letting your hope the Colts don't take him at #4 shade your overall opinion?

 

[travdogg]

I see a guy who throws a great deep ball,

He has a very strong arm but I am not sure he throws a great deep ball. He can throw a pretty ball deep but the 3-4 game films I watched don't really suggest he was throwing his guys open 30+ yards down field.

Considering those are low % throws to begin with I have trouble putting high 1st round value on a player that is wildly inconsistent (inaccurate) in the short to intermediate game, where the vast majority of passing action takes place in the NFL.

He has the kind of measurables that make coaches salivate for sure, but he is incredibly raw and wildly inconsistent. IMO he is just as likely to be a coach killer as a franchise savior.

If he ends up with the Giants or Chiefs I would have incredibly high hopes for him but I am not sure which other franchises have coaches in place who could turn this this guy into a consistent NFL QB.

All that being said, I think he is absolutely a worthwhile prospect in the late teens to early 2nd round.

Haven’t watched enough of Richardson’s film to form an opinion. But just glancing over his PFF profile:

• Run Grade 84.8 7th/112 qualifying QBs
• Pass Grade 70.5 136th/269

Then the draft guide shows:

• Intermediate Passing 85.8
• Deep Passing 93.1
• No Pressure 84.5
• Pressure grade 41.9

For comparison, those last 4 for other QBs:

• Young - 94.2-95.0-93.2-67.5
• Levis - 67.4-70.0-71.7-54.1
• Stroud - 75.3-94.2-92.9-43.9

As I said, haven’t seen him play enough. His 6 highest graded games were Utah (82.1), Tennessee (78.6), Eastern Washington (94.2), LSU (76.0), Texas A&M (86.2), and Vanderbilt (84.7).

edit - formatting

Pressure grades stand out to me for this class of 1st round prospects as being mediocre to ****.

Pressure grades tend to be the most inconsistent year to year and have the least value in my opinion. That said, Young's grade is actually pretty good. Young, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask are the only QB's in the last 3 years to top a 65. Wilson and Trask are the only 2 to top 70, so how valuable is that metric?

In my opinion, I'd rank those metrics in order on importance as 1. Deep 2. Intermediate 3. No Pressure 4. Pressure

Thanks, appreciate this insight. Curious if you know, how the elite young QBs graded in this metric in college... Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, LJax specifically. Context matters, so any metric in iso isn't an end all, but I do wonder how they fared when it came to performance when pressed.

ETA: relative to the current crop of 2023 prospects

2020 class: Burrow's was amazing at 81, Herbert was down at 58, Hurts was 68, Tua was at 65, and Love was down at 49.

2019 class: Daniel Jones was at 64, Drew Lock was at 55, Kyler Murray was way up at 79, and Dwayne Haskins was at 56.

2018 class: Josh Allen was a horrific 38, Sam Darnold was 63, Lamar Jackson was 58, Baker Mayfield was 74, and Josh Rosen was 60.

2017 class: Mitch Trubisky was 62, Deshaun Watson was up at 77, and Patrick Mahomes was 63.

2016 class: Jared Goff was 79, and Paxton Lynch was 78. Carson Wentz wasn't tracked as he was division II.

2015 class: Marcus Mariota was 76, and Jameis Winston was 57.

So since 2016, the top-4 prospects (among guys who were highly drafted anyway) when pressured were: 1. Joe Burrow 2. Jared Goff 3. Kyler Murray and 4. Paxton Lynch

The 4 worst (starting with the worst) among high picks: 1. Josh Allen 2. Anthony Richardson 3. CJ Stroud 4. Tanner McKee

Josh Allen and Paxton Lynch are huge outliers, but there is some merit I guess.

ETA: Added 2015-2016 classes. Data doesn't seem to go back further than that.

 

[BobbyLayne]

“Tell me what the guy can do, don’t tell me what he can’t do, and we’ll find a way to put that positive skill set in the defense and not ask him to be in a position where he can fail.” Bill Belichick

 

[BobbyLayne]

If you like scouting film that tells you what a player can do, Waldman's RSP - Anthonty Richardson

***************

One of my favorite YT channels the last two years has been the QB School.

1. Anthony Richardson analysis vs Tennessee (24/44-453-2-1 + 17-62-2)
2. Anthony Richardson vs Florida State analysis (9/27-3-1 + 10-41-0)

There is good, there's bad, there is some downright ugly in there.

• Sometimes AR15 misses wildly - like 5 or 10 yards offline. More than once.
• There is another play where the receiver drifts upfield, allowing the trailing DB to undercut and pick it off. Better route running, that never happens.
• There is a play where either the kids aren't being coached right (presumably) or the scheme is pathetically bad - the read has two WRs on the same line from the pocket.
• There is a play he moves up in the pocket and if he could just stop/reset and make the throw it's a TD but he misses it.
• There is another play he does step up, does a bit of slide step and flicks an absolute bullet.
• Another play he is in trouble and has to do a jump pass but gets it out and hits the guy - holy crap, there aren't more than a handful of QBs on the planet could make that play.
• There are 1-2 college open plays - TD up the seam that won't be there on Sundays.
• A lot of the film he's completing passes that are NFL open - tight windows and he's got to be on the correct side. That's SEC football, same guys he'll see this fall and beyond.
• In the Waldman film, vs Georgia, Jaylen Carter has been destroying the interior lineman of Florida. Remember the old headslap they banned 45 years ago? Carter is so freaking strong he slaps the 300 pound lineman shoulder and knocks them offbalance, THEN swims over the top. Straight line to AR15 and...he shakes him, shades of Justin Fields.

Richardson is strong, man. Very raw and inaccurate as a passer rn, but the raw material is there. He had, what, two starts before last fall?

He has trouble staying in his ready set position, gets up on his toes and shuffles his feet, and that leads to a lot of the inaccuracy. Those are correctable issues - though it can take awhile if the habits are deeply ingrained. He's definitely going to be a down the field passer and the potential is there to be a guy who can make big time throws, the kind of plays that only a Mahomes or Allen can make. This ain't no game manager, it is going to be fun (for good or bad) watching him in the NFL.

But 2023 and probably 2024 are going to feel just like Allen or Hurts or Tua after Y1/Y2. Holy crap, this guy can't hit the broad side of a barn. Then it will click. Or he'll start running football camps fulltime...certainly no guarantees with this stuff.

The raw materials are there. Going to need the right coach and some patience, but he could be a contender to take the belt from Mahomes.

There is one (1) quarterback with multiple rings. Any other QB is either a wannabe or washed. Allen, Burrow, Hurts (maybe Herbert) - those seem like guys who will win Super Bowls. Tua, Fields, Trevor - maybe, we'll see. Every other QB - even guys who have been there before and are coming off good years - they're average. Barring a 50 MT nuke dropping on Kansas City, that's not going to be good enough.

Anthony Richardson could vault a team into the top quartile of "OK, this team might actually win a Super Bowl one day." He is not good at the moment and may never be great, but IMO more than any other QB in this draft, he could be.

***************

Spoiler: QB School plug - great channel

***NERD ALERT*** this is not for everyone

When you have a minute, scroll through these playlists. Oh, OK. Looks like a bunch of videos about QBs, so what? Keep going....

THIS ONE

"Xs and Os"

Oh my gosh. If you want to really take your enjoyment of the game to another level, go through some of these. Start with the firs two, What are the Differences in Zone Coverages adn Waht are the Differences in Man Coverage. He has 15-20 minute videos on every route (not just the basic routes.) Seven-Man Slide Protection, How Do QB Reads Really Work, What's an Alert (2 parts), The Levels Concept, Triple Inside (AAA) Zone Pressure, How to Improve QB Processing.

It's like going to a coaching clinic. But presented in a laid back, this stuff isn't rocket science guys manner (though it's def complex lol).

Truly great content.

 

[JohnnyU]

If he gets drafted in the first round (which he will) he's not sitting for years to "develop". That doesn't happen nowadays.

At worst he'll sit most of his rookie season playing in certain packages. If the team he's drafted to is out of playoff contention he'll be starting at the end of year 1.

If they aren't mentally tough enough to make mistakes and learn on the field they likely won't ever pan out. Better to find out early.

That would be a serious mistake. It could ruin him. I've seen him mentally fall apart and that would most likely hurt him mentally.

Are we really judging him entirely based off the Kentucky game?

By that standard it's too late because he's already ruined.

No, but it does show a lack of mental toughness and loss of composure. Is that teachable?

Hey, I have been as skeptical of him as anyone in this thread but don't you think you are being a little harsh? It seems that the entirety of your analysis is based off one game?

Do you view any on the other "top" QBs exclusively through that lens? As @travdogg mentioned CJ Stroud v Northwestern? Is that the entirety of who he is in your opinion?

I'm a Raider fan hoping they don't take Richardson at #7, are you just letting your hope the Colts don't take him at #4 shade your overall opinion?

The only part of your statement I can possibly agree with is the last sentence. I am not basing my opinion on one game. IMO he's a terrible passer (for now) and yes, I have my doubts about his composure and ability to accept instruction. AR can prove me wrong and I'll be the first to eat crow and get aboard his train.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

sorry Stidham

I think he's a free agent so they don't really have him anyway.

 

[Chaka]

If he gets drafted in the first round (which he will) he's not sitting for years to "develop". That doesn't happen nowadays.

At worst he'll sit most of his rookie season playing in certain packages. If the team he's drafted to is out of playoff contention he'll be starting at the end of year 1.

If they aren't mentally tough enough to make mistakes and learn on the field they likely won't ever pan out. Better to find out early.

That would be a serious mistake. It could ruin him. I've seen him mentally fall apart and that would most likely hurt him mentally.

Are we really judging him entirely based off the Kentucky game?

By that standard it's too late because he's already ruined.

No, but it does show a lack of mental toughness and loss of composure. Is that teachable?

Hey, I have been as skeptical of him as anyone in this thread but don't you think you are being a little harsh? It seems that the entirety of your analysis is based off one game?

Do you view any on the other "top" QBs exclusively through that lens? As @travdogg mentioned CJ Stroud v Northwestern? Is that the entirety of who he is in your opinion?

I'm a Raider fan hoping they don't take Richardson at #7, are you just letting your hope the Colts don't take him at #4 shade your overall opinion?

The only part of your statement I can possibly agree with is the last sentence. I am not basing my opinion on one game. IMO he's a terrible passer (for now) and yes, I have my doubts about his composure and ability to accept instruction. AR can prove me wrong and I'll be the first to eat crow and get aboard his train.

FTR I am not disputing your take on AR as a passer. IMO, and I have said this many times in here, he has been incredibly mediocre, if not downright bad. His accuracy is terrible, not prohibitive, but not Top 5 draft pick for sure. He has some very nice highlight reel passes but some of his misses have been shockingly bad.

My only dispute is the weight you seem to be putting on that Kentucky game. It's just far too little info to go on to draw such a sweeping conclusion.

 

[JohnnyU]

If he gets drafted in the first round (which he will) he's not sitting for years to "develop". That doesn't happen nowadays.

At worst he'll sit most of his rookie season playing in certain packages. If the team he's drafted to is out of playoff contention he'll be starting at the end of year 1.

If they aren't mentally tough enough to make mistakes and learn on the field they likely won't ever pan out. Better to find out early.

That would be a serious mistake. It could ruin him. I've seen him mentally fall apart and that would most likely hurt him mentally.

Are we really judging him entirely based off the Kentucky game?

By that standard it's too late because he's already ruined.

No, but it does show a lack of mental toughness and loss of composure. Is that teachable?

Hey, I have been as skeptical of him as anyone in this thread but don't you think you are being a little harsh? It seems that the entirety of your analysis is based off one game?

Do you view any on the other "top" QBs exclusively through that lens? As @travdogg mentioned CJ Stroud v Northwestern? Is that the entirety of who he is in your opinion?

I'm a Raider fan hoping they don't take Richardson at #7, are you just letting your hope the Colts don't take him at #4 shade your overall opinion?

The only part of your statement I can possibly agree with is the last sentence. I am not basing my opinion on one game. IMO he's a terrible passer (for now) and yes, I have my doubts about his composure and ability to accept instruction. AR can prove me wrong and I'll be the first to eat crow and get aboard his train.

FTR I am not disputing your take on AR as a passer. IMO, and I have said this many times in here, he has been incredibly mediocre, if not downright bad. His accuracy is terrible, not prohibitive, but not Top 5 draft pick for sure. He has some very nice highlight reel passes but some of his misses have been shockingly bad.

My only dispute is the weight you seem to be putting on that Kentucky game. It's just far too little info to go on to draw such a sweeping conclusion.

Again, and for the last time, I have my doubts about his overall composure and ability to accept instructions and that goes beyond the Ky game. He can prove me wrong and I'll be the first to say I was wrong.

 

[Chaka]

and that goes beyond the Ky game

Fair enough but your previous posts did not suggest this to be the case.

 

[travdogg]

I think it really comes down to patience and upside. How much do you need a QB right now vs how likely is said QB to become a gamechanger?

For me by upside this class is: 1. Richardson 2. Levis 3. Young 4. Stroud

By safety its: 1. Young 2. Stroud 3. Levis 4. Richardson

I do find myself liking the allure of Richardson a lot more after doing a deep dive on him than I did just seeing a few highlights here and there. The reverse has happened with Stroud (and McKee to a lesser extent) ultimately, I can see a case for any of the top-4, though Young is my preference.

 

[JohnnyU]

and that goes beyond the Ky game

Fair enough but your previous posts did not suggest this to be the case.

While his passing percentage wasn't great in either 2021 or 2022, going from 59.4% in 2021 to 53.8% in 2022 is just one thing that concerns me with his ability to take instruction, albeit that 2021 was a smaller sample size. I'm not saying the NFL can't fix him, but my guess would be they can't more often than they can. I did read he improved his leadership, so I should give him credit for that.

 

[JohnnyU]

and that goes beyond the Ky game

Fair enough but your previous posts did not suggest this to be the case.

While his passing percentage wasn't great in either 2021 or 2022, going from 59.4% in 2021 to 53.8% in 2022 is just one thing that concerns me with his ability to take instruction, albeit that 2021 was a smaller sample size. I'm not saying the NFL can't fix him, but my guess would be they can't more often than they can. I did read he improved his leadership, so I should give him credit for that.

I had 58.3 and should have been 53.8

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think it really comes down to patience and upside. How much do you need a QB right now vs how likely is said QB to become a gamechanger?

For me by upside this class is: 1. Richardson 2. Levis 3. Young 4. Stroud

By safety its: 1. Young 2. Stroud 3. Levis 4. Richardson

I do find myself liking the allure of Richardson a lot more after doing a deep dive on him than I did just seeing a few highlights here and there. The reverse has happened with Stroud (and McKee to a lesser extent) ultimately, I can see a case for any of the top-4, though Young is my preference.

In my 10 team start 1 QB league, I have Josh Allen, so short to mid term is solid. Because of this I am thinking of using my early picks at WR/RB and taking Richardson a bit later. I love that upside, and if he does not pan out I should have a few years to address that. I will likely let others jump on Stroud and Young.

 

[massraider]

with his ability to take instruction

I'm sorry, what does this mean?

 

[JohnnyU]

with his ability to take instruction

I'm sorry, what does this mean?

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

 

[massraider]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

 

[Ilov80s]

The obvious comp is SEC Josh Allen. Allen also got worse from year 2 to year 3, struggled with accuracy. So there’s proof the tools focused approach can work but obviously there is a ton of downside. But that’s the NFL draft, a lot of guys labeled “high floor” and “pro ready” end up as busts too.

 

[JohnnyU]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

I guess you're saying that some can't improve their accuracy with or without instruction and I suppose I can buy that. Perhaps AR falls into that category. If not, then he isn't learning to throw more accurately.

 

[Chaka]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

I guess you're saying that some can't improve their accuracy with or without instruction and I suppose I can buy that. Perhaps AR falls into that category. If not, then he isn't learning to throw more accurately.

I have trouble trying to project these things. The nature of any instruction Richardson has received is entirely closed to us. He threw 66 pass in his freshman and sophomore years combined, that makes him a situational CoP guy rendering any of those passing stats essentially useless vis-a-vis his junior year.

We really only have 12 games as a starter as our dataset. The Kentucky game was week 2 of last season. He completed 55.5% of his passes (still bad) at 8.2 y/a with 17 TD & 7 INT in his 11 other games. 54.1% at 8.3 y/a with 17-7 in the 10 games after Kentucky.

He seems to have recovered from that Kentucky game.

None of us are in a position to know how Billy Napier coached him (his second offense BTW) or what his reads were, or the adjustments at the line he and the receivers had to make, on any given play. So how are we to know where the faults like for his worst moments (or his best ones)?

So, I really don't like speaking to the "shouldas" when we have no idea what they were.

Bottom line is maybe Richardson didn't listen to Napier, or didn't absorb it enough for game situations, or maybe he absorbed it chapter and verse, went full robot and this was the outcome. Who knows?

Richardson's accuracy scares the heck out of me. I think I would love him in magic football of Daboll or Andy Reid managed to acquire him.

However, like Josh Allen, whose accuracy numbers in the NFL are worth a deep dive (he gets a lot of love for a guy whose accuracy dropped 6.5% from his career high each of the past two seasons. 63% & 7.3 y/a is middling in the NFL), all the physical tools are there. Also, like Josh Allen, we have no idea what his mental tools are ATM.

I wouldn't want him at 7 but at 15-25? Sure, why not?

 

[JohnnyU]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

I guess you're saying that some can't improve their accuracy with or without instruction and I suppose I can buy that. Perhaps AR falls into that category. If not, then he isn't learning to throw more accurately.

I have trouble trying to project these things. The nature of any instruction Richardson has received is entirely closed to us. He threw 66 pass in his freshman and sophomore years combined, that makes him a situational CoP guy rendering any of those passing stats essentially useless vis-a-vis his junior year.

We really only have 12 games as a starter as our dataset. The Kentucky game was week 2 of last season. He completed 55.5% of his passes (still bad) at 8.2 y/a with 17 TD & 7 INT in his 11 other games. 54.1% at 8.3 y/a with 17-7 in the 10 games after Kentucky.

He seems to have recovered from that Kentucky game.

None of us are in a position to know how Billy Napier coached him (his second offense BTW) or what his reads were, or the adjustments at the line he and the receivers had to make, on any given play. So how are we to know where the faults like for his worst moments (or his best ones)?

So, I really don't like speaking to the "shouldas" when we have no idea what they were.

Bottom line is maybe Richardson didn't listen to Napier, or didn't absorb it enough for game situations, or maybe he absorbed it chapter and verse, went full robot and this was the outcome. Who knows?

Richardson's accuracy scares the heck out of me. I think I would love him in magic football of Daboll or Andy Reid managed to acquire him.

However, like Josh Allen, whose accuracy numbers in the NFL are worth a deep dive (he gets a lot of love for a guy whose accuracy dropped 6.5% from his career high each of the past two seasons. 63% & 7.3 y/a is middling in the NFL), all the physical tools are there. Also, like Josh Allen, we have no idea what his mental tools are ATM.

I wouldn't want him at 7 but at 15-25? Sure, why not?

He is no Josh Allen

 

[Chaka]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

I guess you're saying that some can't improve their accuracy with or without instruction and I suppose I can buy that. Perhaps AR falls into that category. If not, then he isn't learning to throw more accurately.

I have trouble trying to project these things. The nature of any instruction Richardson has received is entirely closed to us. He threw 66 pass in his freshman and sophomore years combined, that makes him a situational CoP guy rendering any of those passing stats essentially useless vis-a-vis his junior year.

We really only have 12 games as a starter as our dataset. The Kentucky game was week 2 of last season. He completed 55.5% of his passes (still bad) at 8.2 y/a with 17 TD & 7 INT in his 11 other games. 54.1% at 8.3 y/a with 17-7 in the 10 games after Kentucky.

He seems to have recovered from that Kentucky game.

None of us are in a position to know how Billy Napier coached him (his second offense BTW) or what his reads were, or the adjustments at the line he and the receivers had to make, on any given play. So how are we to know where the faults like for his worst moments (or his best ones)?

So, I really don't like speaking to the "shouldas" when we have no idea what they were.

Bottom line is maybe Richardson didn't listen to Napier, or didn't absorb it enough for game situations, or maybe he absorbed it chapter and verse, went full robot and this was the outcome. Who knows?

Richardson's accuracy scares the heck out of me. I think I would love him in magic football of Daboll or Andy Reid managed to acquire him.

However, like Josh Allen, whose accuracy numbers in the NFL are worth a deep dive (he gets a lot of love for a guy whose accuracy dropped 6.5% from his career high each of the past two seasons. 63% & 7.3 y/a is middling in the NFL), all the physical tools are there. Also, like Josh Allen, we have no idea what his mental tools are ATM.

I wouldn't want him at 7 but at 15-25? Sure, why not?

He is no Josh Allen

How would we know that today? Nothing in college suggests that as a fact.

Seriously, what is the basis of that statement? A 2.4% difference (all in) in college completion %?

 

[SproutDaddy]

really? It means does he have the ability to improve his accuracy through coaching instruction.

WTF do you mean "really"?

If a guy's completion percentage does not improve, it's not good, but it's about a $70 cab ride from, "he cannot take instruction."

How does that even pop into someone's head?

I guess you're saying that some can't improve their accuracy with or without instruction and I suppose I can buy that. Perhaps AR falls into that category. If not, then he isn't learning to throw more accurately.

I have trouble trying to project these things. The nature of any instruction Richardson has received is entirely closed to us. He threw 66 pass in his freshman and sophomore years combined, that makes him a situational CoP guy rendering any of those passing stats essentially useless vis-a-vis his junior year.

We really only have 12 games as a starter as our dataset. The Kentucky game was week 2 of last season. He completed 55.5% of his passes (still bad) at 8.2 y/a with 17 TD & 7 INT in his 11 other games. 54.1% at 8.3 y/a with 17-7 in the 10 games after Kentucky.

He seems to have recovered from that Kentucky game.

None of us are in a position to know how Billy Napier coached him (his second offense BTW) or what his reads were, or the adjustments at the line he and the receivers had to make, on any given play. So how are we to know where the faults like for his worst moments (or his best ones)?

So, I really don't like speaking to the "shouldas" when we have no idea what they were.

Bottom line is maybe Richardson didn't listen to Napier, or didn't absorb it enough for game situations, or maybe he absorbed it chapter and verse, went full robot and this was the outcome. Who knows?

Richardson's accuracy scares the heck out of me. I think I would love him in magic football of Daboll or Andy Reid managed to acquire him.

However, like Josh Allen, whose accuracy numbers in the NFL are worth a deep dive (he gets a lot of love for a guy whose accuracy dropped 6.5% from his career high each of the past two seasons. 63% & 7.3 y/a is middling in the NFL), all the physical tools are there. Also, like Josh Allen, we have no idea what his mental tools are ATM.

I wouldn't want him at 7 but at 15-25? Sure, why not?

He is no Josh Allen

Neither was Josh Allen before he came to the NFL.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Rooting hard for the Richardson hype to gain some momentum. Young might fall when we find out he’s actually 5’10” 184 at the Combine, but maybe Stroud balls out in Indy / his pro day. My dream scenario is 3-4 QBs go in the Top 5.

That would leave, at worst, Carter or Witherspoon at #6 for Detroit.

The ultimate though would be the rookie regime in Arizona or maybe even Seattle falling deeply in love with Tyree Wilson.

Don’t at me. I’m manifesting.

 

[Faust]

Daniel Jeremiah @MoveTheSticks
Anthony Richardson has the most upside of any QB in this draft. I love the fit in Detroit. No rush to get him on the field. Goff can hold it down until he’s ready. The payoff could be HUGE

https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1628122393851072512?s=21

Daniel Jeremiah: 'I love the fit' of Anthony Richardson in Detroit

 

[Faust]

Seahawks 'A Fantastic Spot' for 'Rare' Florida QB Anthony Richardson, Says Draft Expert

 

[Faust]

Action Network @ActionNetworkHQ
Anthony Richardson No. 1 Pick Odds @BetMGM

+10000: Open
+4000: Monday
+700: Now

https://twitter.com/actionnetworkhq/status/1628511176702275586?s=21

 

[Faust]

Anthony Richardson Draft and Combine Prospect Profile (NFL.com)

 

[BobbyLayne]

polarizing prospect eh

opinions vary on Levis but AR15 is a whole nutter level of extremist views

 

[Ilov80s]

It's possible the QB instruction available at UF isn't exactly top notch.

 

[massraider]

It's possible the QB instruction available at UF isn't exactly top notch.

I mean, maayyybee, but whoever heard of coaches that cannot coach?

Much more likely, AR15 cannot learn. I'm checking his cleats to see if they are velcro, maybe he hasn't sorted out shoelaces yet.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's possible the QB instruction available at UF isn't exactly top notch.

I mean, maayyybee, but whoever heard of coaches that cannot coach?

Much more likely, AR15 cannot learn. I'm checking his cleats to see if they are velcro, maybe he hasn't sorted out shoelaces yet.

I will be honest, I am genuinely unsure if you are kidding or not.

 

[Birdie048]

It's possible the QB instruction available at UF isn't exactly top notch.

I mean, maayyybee, but whoever heard of coaches that cannot coach?

Much more likely, AR15 cannot learn. I'm checking his cleats to see if they are velcro, maybe he hasn't sorted out shoelaces yet.

Maybe he is more “Vince Young” comparable??

 

[BobbyLayne]

Where do people get the idea he is not smart or is uncoachable? These “traits” are mentioned often in TSP and I’m trying to tie that logic out to something tangible.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The Athletic:

Taylor: Anthony Richardson is a complicated case, where huge talent meets small production​

(probably a Honda my apologies if it is)

Spoiler: text

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — There is no consensus on the totality of Anthony Richardson.

There is consensus on the impressive components: the broad-and-tall frame, the breakaway speed, the throwing arm so robust as to demand its own set of launch codes. Yet how those talents commingle, and whether they form the foundation of a successful NFL quarterback, that’s where the debate exists.

And Richardson’s 2022 season, his lone season as a college starter, did little to clear it up.

“He’ll be a complicated evaluation,” said The Athletic’s draft analyst Dane Brugler. “It’s all projection-based and opinions will be all over the map.”

Likewise, Richardson’s performances spanned the map the past three months. Ask the opinion of Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, who came to The Swamp for the season opener, and he’d swear Richardson was the supernatural creation of Stan Lee. Quiz Mark Stoops, whose Kentucky defense wrung the life out of Richardson one week later, and the assessment plummets to sub-ordinary. Such was the dichotomy of production from the dude in the No. 15 jersey, an episodic study in great versus gross.

Betting on the great, Richardson announced Monday that he plans to skip the Las Vegas Bowl and move to draft preparation. His decision came down before the NFL’s College Advisory Committee could deliver its draft-grade feedback. The committee, which draws upon the judgment of front-office personnel staffers and scouts, claims a 94 percent hit rate across the past three drafts, with 51 of 54 underclassmen who were given first- and second-round marks ultimately being selected in the top two rounds.

Given the Gators’ expedited bowl schedule — they depart next Monday for Vegas in advance of facing Oregon State on Dec. 17 — the advisory committee’s grade would not have arrived before Richardson needed to make an opt-out decision. So his calculation is based on agents’ opinions and his family’s needs, all of which contribute to an individualized decision no one can second-guess.

More from Brugler on a potential draft slot:

“It won’t be hard for a team to talk themselves into drafting him on Day 2 or maybe even the first round. His traits and the flashes from each game tape are tantalizing. So much will depend on the interviews and pre-draft process to understand where he is mentally in terms of reading coverages, commanding an offense.”

Whereas Dan Mullen was slow to trust Richardson as his starting quarterback, first-year Florida coach Billy Napier had no other options. The physical tools were too mesmerizing, and Florida’s quarterback depth too questionable. Merely seeing Richardson make dry throws after last December’s knee surgery gave Napier all the assurance he required. Despite boom-or-bust tendencies emerging throughout the season, Richardson remained the franchise player.

It was maddening to see him complete 17 of 24 passes against Utah only to deliver a 14-of-35, two-interception encore against Kentucky. Baffling to watch him run for 106 yards and three touchdowns against the Utes, followed by a meager 4 yards on six attempts against the Wildcats.

“Y’all put the crown on him early,” Napier grew fond of saying.

“Y’all” could have been the mock-draft creators who tabbed Richardson as a top-10 pick after one career start or the media who prematurely pitched him as a Heisman candidate after his second start. In reality, “y’all” was everyone who expected Richardson to make linear progress by improving week to week.

For a few hours in Knoxville, Richardson looked fantastic — throwing for 453 yards, running for 62 and compiling four touchdowns. Then, in what became the final hours of his college career in Tallahassee, he turned erratic and completed only 9 of 27 passes.

Advanced stats reveal a peculiar split:

• On throws of 15-plus yards in the air, Richardson ranked 26th nationally in pass efficiency. He completed 48 of 103 for 13 touchdowns, four interceptions and 1,426 yards.
• On throws of less than 15 yards downfield, he ranked 105th.

The kid who could fireball breathtaking passes through deep windows would flip one-hoppers into the flat. If his overall competitive rate of 53 percent looked alarming, check out his 43 percent rate on passes under 10 yards. Those are the checkdowns and quick-game throws in which quarterbacks should feast.

“Still no control of the pacing of his throws, and his ball placement is erratic,” Brugler said. “But I think his pocket movements have improved.”

Always coachable, Richardson’s mistakes sometimes compounded because he lacked confidence. His body language turned especially sullen after committing those game-killing turnovers against Kentucky. For two years as a backup at Florida he had been content following the flow of traffic, and suddenly, a leadership role demanded he direct it.

“I really hope he goes back to Florida next year,” Brugler told me last month. “Being a Day 2 pick and sitting on the sidelines won’t help him. He needs reps.”

As it stands, Richardson can envision being one of the top four quarterbacks selected in the draft, despite ranking 11th among SEC peers in efficiency and compiling only a 6-7 record as a starter for the Gators. We’ll never know what he would’ve accomplished in Year 2 in Napier’s offense because Richardson’s inner circle deems his current NFL leverage too tempting to postpone.

First-round prestige is enticing, with signing bonuses ranging from $6 million to $25 million. Second-round salaries can be life-changing too, though the slotted contracts for picks 50 through 64 are in line with the $1 million to $1.5 million Richardson was believed to have earned through NIL this year at Florida.

Had Richardson returned to school, the NIL package could have been enhanced. He might’ve developed as a crunchtime passer and constructed a winning legacy. He also would have risked leg injuries that could steal the 4.4 speed that elevates him to being a rarified prospect.

“All 32 teams would love to groom a talent like him,” said Brugler, though the price must be prudent. Are any willing to risk a first-round pick on a quarterback who has rarely strung together impressive games?

Can an NFL staff harness Richardson’s dynamic potential? Can they fashion him to thrive in two-minute scenarios that weren’t his forte at Florida? Can they unlock a competitor who will convince a team to swim against the current? All high-round draft choices are crucial to NFL roster-building, but missing on a defensive tackle doesn’t set back a franchise to the degree busting on a QB does.

At age 20, Richardson is an enigma. Even by the always-mercurial draft standards, NFL clubs aren’t confident in what they’re getting. How can they be? He’s a complicated case, where huge talent meets small sample. For a player who carved up the Pac-12 champs, and then threw 11 straight incompletions at FSU, the projections have never been muddier.

 

[Mister CIA]

Ain't no way this guy will be available at 2.05 in start 1-QB dynasty.

 

[Ilov80s]

Maybe he is more “Vince Young” comparable??

Maybe but that is an odd comparison given Young was arguably the most dominant single college player of the last 25 years and Richardson struggled to complete passes against UK.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's possible the QB instruction available at UF isn't exactly top notch.

Yeah, that is a possibility.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ain't no way this guy will be available at 2.05 in start 1-QB dynasty.

I hope you’re right and a player I want falls to me.

 

[Ilov80s]

Young also greatly improved as a passer over his college career. Though he also got a lot more pass reps before he had his accurate, efficient Heisman year. Richardson hasn't gotten those reps yet to possibly improve which is why he's such a mystery box.

 

[Chaka]

AR15

Please let's not do this.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Young also greatly improved as a passer over his college career. Though he also got a lot more pass reps before he had his accurate, efficient Heisman year. Richardson hasn't gotten those reps yet to possibly improve which is why he's such a mystery box.

His new coach last year (Napier) said he needs reps. Which I think everyone probably agrees with. He made $1.5M from NIL. Come back and play well, he'd have a shot at being #1 overall pick. But he did have knee surgery Dec 2021 so I guess it's easy to see both sides of that equation.

 

[JohnnyU]

AR15

Please let's not do this.

Do what?

 

[BobbyLayne]

AR15

Please let's not do this.

hey, not a gun nut, didn't make the connection - thought It was just a goofy fantasy nickname like AR12 or whatever we used to call Allen Robinson back when he could still play.

Florida QB Anthony Richardson drops 'AR-15' nickname, says he no longer wants to be 'associated' with gun

 

[BobbyLayne]

AR15

Please let's not do this.

hey, not a gun nut, didn't make the connection - thought It was just a goofy fantasy nickname like AR12 or whatever we used to call Allen Robinson back when he could still play.

Florida QB Anthony Richardson drops 'AR-15' nickname, says he no longer wants to be 'associated' with gun

There is nothing wrong with guns In the right hands.

So you’d agree Anthony Richardson’s rifle arm should do well with good coaching?

The way the CBA is setup right now I think it’s pretty hard for someone as raw as AR to get what he needs most - more reps. They’re limited WRT the number of OTAs & practices they can have, how many hours they spend in pads, essentially how much time on task he’ll get.

He can still develop but it’s going to be s challenge, and Y1/Y2 will almost surely be very discouraging - for fans abs maybe the athlete. He seemed to struggle with how he dealt with adversity this year.

Beyond measurables at the Combine, I think teams will be paying close attention to interviews. There’s nothing wrong with struggling if you overcome it and walk away with valuable lessons.

 

[Ilov80s]

His new coach last year (Napier) said he needs reps. Which I think everyone probably agrees with. He made $1.5M from NIL. Come back and play well, he'd have a shot at being #1 overall pick. But he did have knee surgery Dec 2021 so I guess it's easy to see both sides of that equation.

When you are being mentioned as a top 10 pick, you can’t pass that up imo. There’s a chance Richardson gets better and becomes the #1 or #2 pick. There’s also a chance he has some struggles and becomes a mid rounder or worse. It happens almost every year where one of the QBs projected as a top 5 pick in August ends up as an afterthought come combine time.

 

[Birdie048]

Maybe he is more “Vince Young” comparable??

Maybe but that is an odd comparison given Young was arguably the most dominant single college player of the last 25 years and Richardson struggled to complete passes against UK.

Sorry for making a poor analogy. I guess I was referencing more the old Wonderlic Test Score leaked on Young (IIRC a 6?). And his penchant for "ad-lib plays" instead of coach called plays.
Yes, Vince Young was a dominate physical athlete in College. It's just he appeared to lack the mental approach needed to succeed long term in NFL.

Questions on ARich's physical attributes are not the question.
It is more his development that is being looking into from
1) was his coaching below par at resulted in his inconsistent performance
2) was his attitude the problem at UF vs coaches teaching him (arrogant or diva'esque?)
3) is there some other aspect we are unaware of (maybe he is dyslexic or color blind, I don't know ... just spit-balling).

I am only asking question on him, trying to not make any negative comments, and if I did, I apologize. I don't know much and like to keep it that way!

 

[Penguin]

If I was a QB starved team I'd be really cautious. Richardson is a project that to me, best case scenario turns into Justin Fields, best case. Worst case, JaMarcus Russell. Bryce Young's size scares me, he's smaller than Drew Brees and Brees was the GOAT of QB size outliers, we can't expect that to keep happening, and Brees was BIGGER than Young, by a decent amount.

To me it's CJ Stroud or pass.

Will Levis, let someone else take him.

 

[titusbramble]

Action Network @ActionNetworkHQ
Anthony Richardson No. 1 Pick Odds @BetMGM

+10000: Open
+4000: Monday
+700: Now

https://twitter.com/actionnetworkhq/status/1628511176702275586?s=21

He's +700 on my book to be the #1 pick, but oddly +750 to be the first QB taken, which makes no sense, clearly bet the latter