dipandglide
Footballguy
Legend
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QB Cam Newton, Retired (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter rickyg
- Start date
Gandalf
Footballguy
What I can't figure out is what is different this year from last? He has fewer weapons and seems to be getting 3-5 TDs per game consistently. Can anyone tell me what changed?
simey
Footballguy
last year he was hobbling around on a bad ankle the ENTIRE season. his offensive line was a sieve too last year, oh and he broke his back at the end of the season in that nasty car wreck... but other than that everything else is the same
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
stratocatter
Footballguy
I think he had time to work this offseason as well, last year there was the surgery. The stuff I am seeing at the LOS pre snap, I don't remember being this strong.
FUBAR
Footballguy
true, but maybe just an extra year in the league and with Shula helps this much.
Shula may very easily be gone next year which would be a negative.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
I think Cam getting healthy, and learning to read defenses better and seeing the whole field better is more of a reason for his progress than Shula. As mentioned, he also was able to get a preseason in with his teammates. Last year he was coming off of surgery, and he had a whole new crop of receivers that he didn't get any time with in the preseason. Injury + lack of preseason reps with new teammates was rough.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'll agree that his health is huge, but people seem to underrate consistancy at OC and HC.
shadyridr
Footballguy
this is no slight in cam but his schedule was an absolute joke this year. Has he played a single good defense?
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Seattle. Houston is pretty good, Philly in spurts has been good. But yeah, he's played some cupcakes. Yesterday was case in point. Regardless, you play who's on the schedule.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Houston and Washington are above average. Seattle and Green Bay are top 5 defenses.
lod01
Footballguy
He's performing like never before but he really has a candyass schedule. The whole NFC South has an easy schedule. Matt Ryan has no excuse because he has the easiest schedule. but when you look at the pass defenses this division played, here they are in the rankings:
26th, 24th (twice), 19th, 25th, 30th, 20th, 32nd. Upcoming, 20th and 19th ranked. When you have a D like they have, a candyass schedule puts up big #s
Peyton Manning had the worlds easiest schedule when he put up 55 TDs.
The Texans don't count because their great D is countered by their terrible O. Same for Dallas. When you have the ball the whole time, it's pretty easy to put up numbers. Score 10 points on them along with having a great D yourself....that seals the game.
And when the hell did Ted Ginn learn to catch a football?
Green Bay is far from a top 5 D in either pass or run.
The NFC South got the AFC South and the NFC East this year. 1 team in each division has a top D. Those 2 teams happen to have no QB.
26th, 24th (twice), 19th, 25th, 30th, 20th, 32nd. Upcoming, 20th and 19th ranked. When you have a D like they have, a candyass schedule puts up big #s
Peyton Manning had the worlds easiest schedule when he put up 55 TDs.
The Texans don't count because their great D is countered by their terrible O. Same for Dallas. When you have the ball the whole time, it's pretty easy to put up numbers. Score 10 points on them along with having a great D yourself....that seals the game.
And when the hell did Ted Ginn learn to catch a football?
Green Bay is far from a top 5 D in either pass or run.
The NFC South got the AFC South and the NFC East this year. 1 team in each division has a top D. Those 2 teams happen to have no QB.
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NCCommish
Footballguy
I keep hearing about Cams easy schedule. But every week we face another team that is allegedly going to be his undoing, until we win, then they suck and we got lucky but wait until they face so and so.
I don't care who you face turning Ted Ginn into a 10 touchdown receiver should be worth the MVP alone.
I don't care who you face turning Ted Ginn into a 10 touchdown receiver should be worth the MVP alone.
lod01
Footballguy
NCCommish
Footballguy
I really expected Atlanta to bounce back. I didn't like the Smith firing as I didn't think it was on him. But I still thought too many good players to not do well. Epic meltdown.
TB is actually doing well considering how young they are. Looks like a good team being built there.
lod01
Footballguy
I still say that Shanahan is the root cause. Cousins didn't just become a quality starter out of the blue. The common denominator between he and Matt Ryan is Shanahan.
The O Line is also horrible again.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Anyone writing off ATL and TB are incredibly naive. Two fantastic QBs who can hit a groove and put up 35 any given week. Both have fantastic RBs as well. NFC South top to bottom probably has the best WRs in the game, certainly the most physically imposing (when you throw Kelvin back in).
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stratocatter
Footballguy
Atlanta has had some bad teams over the years, that 38-0 was the worst they lost in a long time.
lod01
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
The defenses are suspect sure, but you're not stopping Julio, or even Devonta. As far as this year, you're not stopping Doug Martin. To say neither of those games will be or has a decent chance to be competitive, you must be out of your mind.
this has to be a troll effort, so i credit you with your ability to disquise it.
the panthers just stopped julio (7-88-0 and devonta (5.7 pts on my 0.5ppr scoring) 2 weeks ago. The falcons haven't scored over 25 points in 2 months. what make you think they can keep this game within 10 points?
send me $500 using moneypak cards, and if ATL covers i promise to send you $1000 back.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Dude is just dominating and proving to be an elite QB. Makes me super excited to have 2 autographed trading cards.
pantherclub
Footballguy
damn. 2?
NCCommish
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Yeah. One is actually from college when he won the Heisman and the card itself is shaped like a football. The other is a true rookie NFL card. Both autographed and both numbered from a total of only 50.
E2A: Just found the ones I own on eBay:
football shape - http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-Leaf-Ultimate-Draft-Cam-Newton-Die-Cut-Rc-auto-23-49-BGS-9-Panthers-/161435165047?hash=item2596492177:g:1oEAAOSwDk5UJw3b
Topps Rookie Autograph - http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-Topps-Inception-Football-Cam-Newton-Rc-Rookie-Auto-13-50-Autograph-/261645344212?hash=item3ceb471dd4:m:m0MZhP3Eoh6E_l6j5O0oecw
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
chauncey
Footballguy
He might have come up a little short today in an important week for fantasy purposes, but man has cam turned my opinion about him around 180 degrees this season.
He's amazing. Hands down the NFL mvp and fantasy Mvp this season. Carried his whole team with wide receivers that might not start for some college teams to throw to.
Just a beast
He's amazing. Hands down the NFL mvp and fantasy Mvp this season. Carried his whole team with wide receivers that might not start for some college teams to throw to.
Just a beast
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Glad I had the balls to bench him in lieu of Bortles. Just felt like a trap game to me. That decision won me my league. That being said, he is the man-no way would I have gotten to the big dance without him.
Unfortunately, I went up against Bortles in both of my finals. Pretty surprised by that outing for the entire Panthers squad yesterday. Cam could not get anything going in the 4th.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
459 fantasy points for the season, 35 TD, 10 INT 10 Rushing TD, 636 rushing yards. This was a Legendary season as he rivaled his first two seasons in rushing and also went 3.5 TD/INT ratio. The amazing part of this is he did this with an elite defense so none of these stats were padded with blowout/catch-up type games (their only loss came in a close game) and he was using one of the worst set of WR in the league. It's doubtful that any one of his WRs on his team would even start on any other team in the league, certainly not for a team with an elite QB. I counted at least 4-5 Ginn drops that should have been 10-70 yard TDs too so he easily could have had 40 TDs passing if ole stone hands caught those wide open passes for TDs. If he had a defense that put him in catchup mode he could have also upped his numbers with garbage time stat padding.
Clearly he is a level above all especially in leagues where QBs only gain 4 point for passing and 6 points for rushing TDs. The closest rushing type QB is Russell Wilson who did have very similar stats minus 9 rushing TDs (404 points total). Brady is a different type of animal with 414 points and gets a larger % through the air. Aside from those two no other QBs are even close.
I fully expect him to regress, but I think even streaming options could not produce this kind of output. If you compare him to QB4-12, you get a 14%-24% scoring advantage at QB. He offers a 7-10% advantage over Brady/Wilson and enjoyed a greater than 25% output advantage vs all other QBs. Also consider that QB is the highest scoring position so its a double edged sword, not only are you getting a percentage advantage at the position, but you are getting massive amounts of points. Compare that to getting the same % output advantage at TE of K which only might give you 1-2 points.
If you account for these things:
Defense regression (will be forced to be more aggressive in comebacks from behind)
W/L team regression (")
WR improvement (Benjamin comes back and other possible WR improvements from Funchess) Better situation
Matchup proof (he's a good enough passer to exploit advantages with his WRs, but when opposing defenses are matched up well against his receivers he can produce in different ways that are difficult to game-plan. He has improved as a passer/decision maker/leader since his rookie season.
Even before making these improvements he has consistently scored top6 at the QB position since coming into the league. A model of consistency
We could be entering the prime time of his career and more seasons could be coming similar to this one down the road, not saying a repeat next year, but he might have a few more in him like this. Could he be worth an early pick? How early? What is he worth in a trade? He's one of my favorite players. I still remember his first game throwing a TD to Steve Smith just before the half. That was a special year. He helped me win my league that year.
Clearly he is a level above all especially in leagues where QBs only gain 4 point for passing and 6 points for rushing TDs. The closest rushing type QB is Russell Wilson who did have very similar stats minus 9 rushing TDs (404 points total). Brady is a different type of animal with 414 points and gets a larger % through the air. Aside from those two no other QBs are even close.
I fully expect him to regress, but I think even streaming options could not produce this kind of output. If you compare him to QB4-12, you get a 14%-24% scoring advantage at QB. He offers a 7-10% advantage over Brady/Wilson and enjoyed a greater than 25% output advantage vs all other QBs. Also consider that QB is the highest scoring position so its a double edged sword, not only are you getting a percentage advantage at the position, but you are getting massive amounts of points. Compare that to getting the same % output advantage at TE of K which only might give you 1-2 points.
If you account for these things:
Defense regression (will be forced to be more aggressive in comebacks from behind)
W/L team regression (")
WR improvement (Benjamin comes back and other possible WR improvements from Funchess) Better situation
Matchup proof (he's a good enough passer to exploit advantages with his WRs, but when opposing defenses are matched up well against his receivers he can produce in different ways that are difficult to game-plan. He has improved as a passer/decision maker/leader since his rookie season.
Even before making these improvements he has consistently scored top6 at the QB position since coming into the league. A model of consistency
We could be entering the prime time of his career and more seasons could be coming similar to this one down the road, not saying a repeat next year, but he might have a few more in him like this. Could he be worth an early pick? How early? What is he worth in a trade? He's one of my favorite players. I still remember his first game throwing a TD to Steve Smith just before the half. That was a special year. He helped me win my league that year.
mathew berry this preseason was poo-pooing cam's 2015 prospects and his reasoning besides the obvious lack of WR weapons was some stat that running QB's who were Cam's age had always regressed with their rushing totals. It was a bit short sighted on Berry's side to not consider the fact there really hasnt been a running QB in recent memory who was built like Cam is physically. but age will eventually catch up to Cam. There were plenty of anomalies this year. the 35 passing td's eclipsed his previous season high of 24. the 10 rushing td's nearly doubled his previous 2 seasons totals (5 and 6). i think he has a great year next year but not qb1... probably qb4 or 5. /wildspeculation
Wingnut
Footballguy
Fascinating.
One note, you probably should throw out 2014. Cam was clearly hurt for much of the season, ankle surgery so barely any pre-season and then getting knocked around/in the car accident with the back issues. I am not saying every season will be like this year, but 2014 was more of an outlier IMHO than 2015. His rushing totals in 2011/2012 were better than this year, 720 11 TDs on average. He got a couple more TDs than 2012 this year because the entire offense was better. Passing TDs may go down a bit, but they were the #1 scoring offense this year, they were just plain better and more efficient. While they won't be 15-1 every season, I think the next 5 years, they are likely contending for the playoffs every year instead of 6-10/7-9 his first two years. I wouldn't be surprised to see him close to 4500 total yards and 40 TDs for the next 4-5 years. If Benjamin comes back healthy next year, that shouldn't be hard to achieve at all.iamkoza said:
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SacramentoBob
Footballguy
