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RB A.J. Dillon, GB (2 Viewers)

FreeBaGeL said:
It's not like the fantasy community has necessarily been wrong on that front.  How many of these guys really work out, especially in the modern NFL?  When I googled 250lb RBs that became good stat producers almost all of them were from back when the NFL was a different game. 

Derrick Henry worked out but he was a top 5 FF pick and you had to endure 3 years of him figuring it out to finally get here.  Most people that drafted him probably sold him on the cheap long before his breakout.

Brandon Jacobs put up a few RB2 seasons.  Eddie Lacy had a couple nice years (when he was slimmer) on a much better offense.

He could certainly work out but there just aren't a lot of teams looking to build around a Jerome Bettis/Natrone Means type player these days.  I guess the Packers using a day 2 pick on him maybe means they are more receptive to it than most, but I'm not sure it's something they will really stick with.  And that's not considering that I just don't believe Dillon is that good of a player.  He was way overdrafted on day 2, most had him as a 4th round talent.
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I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to add Blount to the list. He didn't get many chances, but when he was given the ball, he was effective.

 
Currently undervalued according to PFF:

The most over/undervalued rookies in fantasy football drafts according to NFL draft position

Excerpt:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor and Ke’Shawn Vaughn each fell into landing spots with strong perceptions of opportunity, whereas believers in A.J. Dillon are hard to find despite being drafted in the second round and joining an Aaron Rodgers offense. You don’t have to love the prospect to find value taking Dillon, who could ascend with hype in the offseason or injuries during the season to presumed lead back Aaron Jones.
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Packers signed second-round RB AJ Dillon to a four-year contract.

Dillon (6’0/247) was a highly productive three-year starter at Boston College who earned three-straight first-team All-ACC honors in averaging at least 110 rushing yards and one touchdown per game in each season. He showcased 97th-percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism by running a 4.53 forty at Indy's Combine, adding a 41-inch vertical to his hit-or-miss tape. Dillon was a punishing power back, but rarely broke off big runs and only caught 21 career passes. In the NFL, he profiles as a potential two-down committee back who has more top-speed than other goal-line backs, but will likely be subbed out on passing downs, limiting his overall appeal both on the field and in fantasy. Dillon's workload in his first year with the Packers is questionable, but his presence alone may allow the organization to forego extending Aaron Jones as the latter enters the final year of his deal.

Jul 1, 2020, 1:01 PM ET
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Packers GM Brian Gutekunst compared second-round rookie RB AJ Dillon to Eddie Lacy.

When asked about Dillon, Gutekunst said, "I think he's obviously built to last. He has had a lot of production over the last three years and proven that. We had a chance to have Eddie Lacy here for a few years where he was that kind of back, and I think A.J. can do some similar things." While both are heavy backs who figure to do a lot of their damage between the tackles, Dillon is more impressive physically than Lacy, who battled weight issues for most of his NFL career. Dillon went viral on social media after a training camp photo surfaces of his tree trunk legs. Aaron Rodgers also was impressed with Dillon's muscular built but did note that the "biggest hurdle" will be Dillon getting caught up with the playbook. Dillon has the potential to pass Jamaal Williams on the depth chart and could be a thorn in Aaron Jones' side for fantasy purposes.

RELATED: 

Aaron Jones

, Jamaal Williams

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Aug 15, 2020, 7:15 PM ET
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Although the coaches have changed the philosophy from the top in GB does seem to prefer a 2 RB approach. A thunder and lightning combination.

Their moves in the draft tell me that When the Packers selected Eddie Lacy they also took Johnathan Franklin that year to be the lightning. Franklin was injured so they used James Starks and other try outs looking to fill that role in their offense. When they drafted Jamal Williams they also selected Aaron Jones. Same thing, lower investment.

Its a pattern that goes back a pretty long time really and about the only time it was interrupted is when they traded for Ahman Green who was a stud for them for a few seasons.

Some times the lighting player is just a lot better than the thunder or vice versa, I think most of the time the lightening is but they still want the thunder anyways.

 
Tactical Turtleneck said:
Thanks I'll watch that video later...he is one of the few positive analysis I have found on him.  Lots of people think his game won't translate to the nfl.   There haven't been to many successful big rbs.
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Yeah, I agree. His size might be working against him. I got him late in a rookie draft for his relative ADP so I'm cheering for him but not expecting the world. Expecting some good things, maybe, but not the world.

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, I agree. His size might be working against him. I got him late in a rookie draft for his relative ADP so I'm cheering for him but not expecting the world. Expecting some good things, maybe, but not the world.
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I got him late as well and I took him because the Pack took him in the 2nd and Jones is a FA at the end of the year.  Have to figure from a fantasy perspective they are going to seriously kick the tires on him...

 
Any dynasty trades involving Dillon and 2021 picks go down yet?  We’ve already had our rookie draft, so any trade at this point would be player-for-player or for 2021 picks. 

 
Packers beat report Jim Owczarski said rookie RB AJ Dillon's role could change during the season, but he doesn't expect major usage in the early going. 

To quote Owczarski from his Reddit Q&A, it's "possible" Dillon's "role changes mid-season, after the [Week 5] bye week or even later as he just gets more experience but I would be lying to you if I were to project a certain type of usage right now." Owczarski said the cancellation of the NFL preseason means the Packers won't know if Dillon can recognize "shifting defensive fronts" and pass protect adequately. Though no one is drafting Dillon to start him Week 1, this is a reminder that Dillon is a smart stash rather than a back who will get a bunch of carries right away. It'll be the Aaron Jones show, for a while at least. 

SOURCE: Reddit.com 

Aug 23, 2020, 5:05 PM ET
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Trying to choose between AJ Dillon and Justin Jefferson in a .5 ppr dynasty league. Decent depth at RB and WR so a toss up. Opinions?

 
Stew2045 said:
Trying to choose between AJ Dillon and Justin Jefferson in a .5 ppr dynasty league. Decent depth at RB and WR so a toss up. Opinions?
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Jefferson has been going higher than Dillon in just about any draft format you can think of.

I do think the Packers will use Dillon and likely he will be their goal line RB over Jones.

Jones is not going away, at least not this season and he has proved to be a dynamic RB for them. A lot of his fantasy value last season was a product of his TD though and many of those opportunities may be going to Dillon now.

20 some years of Favre and Rodgers throwing the ball a ton in red zone. Maybe that has changed with the new coach now who did have Jones score a lot for them.

I like Dillon but even if Aaron Jones moves on to another team in 2021 I expect the Packers to add another RB like him to split with Dillon.

The TD are more valuable in your league relative to receptions. RB are really valuable and Dillon could be a good one.

I still think Jefferson is the more valuable player and the majority is correct to take him over Dllon from a big picture long term view.

Its possible Dillon outscores Jefferson in 2020 though if he does get more than 8 TD.

 
Thanks—nice analysis. TDs are 6 pts for everyone.This is more along the thought of what their value will be in a year or two. Dillon looks like he could be a nice breakout player in a year. Still conflicted but good points you mentioned above. 

 
Uh oh, fellow believers. This comes from Football Outsiders discussing Dillon's BMI and historical successes regarding the measurement. Asserting that most bell cow backs that achieve 300 fantasy points in a season fall within the 29-31 BMI range (besides exceptions Aaron Jones and a younger Christian McCaffrey, who they tease the article with) the author goes on to note:

"A.J. Dillon (33.0) is the only young back on the high side of the BMI range who rings my alarm bells. And even if they haven't thought of it in these terms, the critics of the Packers' 2020 draft strategy are applying a similar logic. Dillon looks like the sort of specialized short-yardage back that modern teams have stopped drafting on Days 1 and 2. Derrick Henry may have provided a reason to question that wisdom as he carried the Titans to playoff victories over the Patriots and Ravens, but Henry is a freak, and the athleticism of his 6-foot-3 and 247-pound frame pops in his 30.9 BMI. At about the same weight, Dillon is 2 or 3 inches shorter. I'll believe he can carry the Packers rushing offense when he does it."

 
The BNI being higher than the range of 29-31 would be a reason why some might think Dillon should lose weight. So he would fit within those parameters.

Then again some of the best RB recently do not fit within that range either, so maybe it doesn't matter.

I think being shorter than defensive players is an asset as far as generating leverage at contact.It also means you are a smaller target.  So him being shorter than Derrick Henry is something I see as an advantage for Dillon whereas they are very similar to each other as far as measurements and other combine metrics aside height which greatly affects the BMI calculation.

Never mind that this metrics are only for a snap shot of time of the players life and the BMI they play at may be different than the number used in the study.

 
rockaction said:
Uh oh, fellow believers. This comes from Football Outsiders discussing Dillon's BMI and historical successes regarding the measurement. Asserting that most bell cow backs that achieve 300 fantasy points in a season fall within the 29-31 BMI range (besides exceptions Aaron Jones and a younger Christian McCaffrey, who they tease the article with) the author goes on to note:

"A.J. Dillon (33.0) is the only young back on the high side of the BMI range who rings my alarm bells. And even if they haven't thought of it in these terms, the critics of the Packers' 2020 draft strategy are applying a similar logic. Dillon looks like the sort of specialized short-yardage back that modern teams have stopped drafting on Days 1 and 2. Derrick Henry may have provided a reason to question that wisdom as he carried the Titans to playoff victories over the Patriots and Ravens, but Henry is a freak, and the athleticism of his 6-foot-3 and 247-pound frame pops in his 30.9 BMI. At about the same weight, Dillon is 2 or 3 inches shorter. I'll believe he can carry the Packers rushing offense when he does it."
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I treat these types of articles with a bit of scrutiny because its practically impossible for them to know any player's actual BMI. The height and weight numbers that are listed for players are not always accurate. Some of these players are listed 10-20lbs heavier or lighter, 1 or 2 inches shorter or taller. And then you have weight distribution and body type. You could have two players with the same BMI, one has legs like Barry Sanders the other looks like an orange on a set of toothpicks. 

 
TwinTurbo said:
I treat these types of articles with a bit of scrutiny because its practically impossible for them to know any player's actual BMI. The height and weight numbers that are listed for players are not always accurate. Some of these players are listed 10-20lbs heavier or lighter, 1 or 2 inches shorter or taller. And then you have weight distribution and body type. You could have two players with the same BMI, one has legs like Barry Sanders the other looks like an orange on a set of toothpicks. 
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Sure. And he's going by combine weight, which might have changed. Just another piece of information to process when thinking about Dillon. That can't be bad, even though the news isn't good. Just makes us better GMs/owners/whatever we're calling it.

 
Honest question...  was there a reason in the article as to why they picked that specific range of BMI (29-31)?  Or did they only go up to 31 because Derrick Henry is 30.9?

edited to add...

And honestly for where I drafted him in the rookie draft (3rd round), I’d be perfectly happy with a Brandon Jacobs type career (hopefully minus the injuries)..

 
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Boone22 said:
Honest question...  was there a reason in the article as to why they picked that specific range of BMI (29-31)?  Or did they only go up to 31 because Derrick Henry is 30.9?
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Yeah, there was a reason. It's that historical measurements of BMI and 300+ fantasy point seasons happen mostly within that range. I think there are only four outliers or something like that. Perhaps a link would help and you can see it and judge it for what it is worth by the primary source of my blurb. I don't really know what to think. It just seemed relevant to the SP and this thread in particular. I also drafted Dillon in May at 3.01 in a rookie draft, so I'm still very curious and intent on sussing this article out. If anybody can point to the validity or invalidity of it, all the better in my book.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/projection-points/2020/running-back-growth-potential-starts-size

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, there was a reason. It's that historical measurements of BMI and 300+ fantasy point seasons happen mostly within that range. I think there are only four outliers or something like that. Perhaps a link would help and you can see it and judge it for what it is worth by the primary source of my blurb. I don't really know what to think. It just seemed relevant to the SP and this thread in particular. I also drafted Dillon in May at 3.01 in a rookie draft, so I'm still very curious and intent on sussing this article out. If anybody can point to the validity or invalidity of it, all the better in my book.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/projection-points/2020/running-back-growth-potential-starts-size
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Thanks for the link.  This answers my questions.  I guess where I fall out on this is that, as a 3rd round rookie pick I’m not expecting any 300 fantasy point seasons from Dillon.  I’ll be damn happy if he gets there but I’ll be more than OK with several top 24 finishes, which according to the last 3 years in one of my dynasty leagues means, roughly, 150 fantasy points or more a season.   If you can get a consistent RB2 in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, your doing OK.  That usually means you can flip him if needed for a lot more than a 3rd in the future.  

 
rockaction said:
Sure. And he's going by combine weight, which might have changed. Just another piece of information to process when thinking about Dillon. That can't be bad, even though the news isn't good. Just makes us better GMs/owners/whatever we're calling it.
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I think BMI is a fairly useless metric to use for any athlete because it doesn't take body mass composition or distribution into account. Add in the fact that it may not even be the actual BMI, and it just seems like a meaningless exercise to compare these data points. 

For body mass distribution, I do like RBs that carry more weight in their legs and Dillon clearly checks that box. If you look back at the leg workouts that Barry Sanders was able to do, it was just insane. 

 
Boone22 said:
Thanks for the link.  This answers my questions.  I guess where I fall out on this is that, as a 3rd round rookie pick I’m not expecting any 300 fantasy point seasons from Dillon.  I’ll be damn happy if he gets there but I’ll be more than OK with several top 24 finishes, which according to the last 3 years in one of my dynasty leagues means, roughly, 150 fantasy points or more a season.   If you can get a consistent RB2 in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, your doing OK.  That usually means you can flip him if needed for a lot more than a 3rd in the future.  
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Exactly. At that point in the draft (even though I'm a newbie), you hope for some production at the right time so you can flash and flip to someone desperate for a higher pick than the one you took him with. Actually, I won't lie. Kind of had delusions of him bell cowing it for them in 2021. We shall see.

 
rockaction said:
Exactly. At that point in the draft (even though I'm a newbie), you hope for some production at the right time so you can flash and flip to someone desperate for a higher pick than the one you took him with. Actually, I won't lie. Kind of had delusions of him bell cowing it for them in 2021. We shall see.
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You may still be able to hold onto that delusion.  Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year.  The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points.  So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.  

 
Boone22 said:
You may still be able to hold onto that delusion.  Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year.  The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points.  So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.  
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Yep. Anything around 200 would be gravy.

 
Boone22 said:
You may still be able to hold onto that delusion.  Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year.  The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points.  So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.  
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Hope you're not wishing that for 2020.  Aaron Jones isn't going anywhere this year and is a stud.

 
JohnnyU said:
I responded to Boone22 ;)   If he said 2021 I apologize. 
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Nope, I was responding to Rock’s “delusion” where he referenced 2021.  I Personally don’t think Dillon on does much at all this year except maybe steal a few Goal line carries and a handful of TDs.  Anything beyond that would be a bonus. 

 
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TwinTurbo said:
I think BMI is a fairly useless metric to use for any athlete because it doesn't take body mass composition or distribution into account. Add in the fact that it may not even be the actual BMI, and it just seems like a meaningless exercise to compare these data points. 

For body mass distribution, I do like RBs that carry more weight in their legs and Dillon clearly checks that box. If you look back at the leg workouts that Barry Sanders was able to do, it was just insane. 
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Exactly.  BMI doesn't differentiate between fat and muscle, just mass. You can put a 6'0 250lb person who eats garbage every meal and doesn't work out next to a 6'0 250lb weight lifter who does steroids. Same BMI, two completely different looking people.

 
Ostro said:
Exactly.  BMI doesn't differentiate between fat and muscle, just mass. You can put a 6'0 250lb person who eats garbage every meal and doesn't work out next to a 6'0 250lb weight lifter who does steroids. Same BMI, two completely different looking people.
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One brief counterpoint: We're not talking about comparing athletes to the general population, we're comparing each athlete to another world-class athlete. You assume they're fit enough to play at a high level -- nay, a ridiculous level. Their bodies are borderline the best humanity has to offer. So there's a baseline there where there won't be a whole lot of variance in the way you indicate.

 
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rockaction said:
One brief counterpoint: We're not talking about comparing athletes to the general population, we're comparing each athlete to another world-class athlete. You assume they're fit enough to play at a high level -- nay, a ridiculous level. Their bodies are borderline the best humanity has to offer. So there's a baseline there where there won't be a whole lot of variance in the way you indicate.
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I understand the difference and I definitely agree with you. But it's still kinda a pointless measurement.  I'd still have to agree with what TwinTurbo said about his legs and mass/weight distribution.

 
I can agree with this since I foresee Packers and HC LaFluer wanting to lean on rushing toward latter end of the season especially when cold climate becomes factor.  Dillon does have prior experience playing in cold climate at BC. 

 
Matt LaFleur on Packers RBs: 'Going to see all of those guys in the mix'

Excerpt:

And then there’s 247-pound rookie A.J. Dillon, who could give the Packers offense another flavor out of the backfield once he begins to master the little things about the position.

“I think A.J. has shown improvement. Like any young back, there is a lot to learn in this offense, just in terms of the pass game, in pass protection. Certainly, he has some great skills as a runner. He’s gotta have the mindset that he better be ready to roll,” LaFleur said.

The Packers have used Dillon as both a between-the-tackles runner and as a receiver during camp, helping highlight their desire to make him an all-around threat.
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