Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Let’s make sure to derail this thread for several pages arguing about the age of generals from the 19th century! Don’t let me down SP.
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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
I'd rather discuss why the names "Dagobert" and "Wurmser" have fallen completely out of favor with parents. Is that germane to the topic?
(I'd have incuded Sigmund too, but it's relatively well known still in this particular corner of the internet.)
Run It Up
Footballguy
Just curious why you have his recs going down this year?
I haven't done a projection on him this year, but even if he approaches 200 carries I expect him to still be on pace for 100 catches all season, even if he falls short of that mark.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I haven’t done projections yet either but I could see his receptions going down because of Norvell Turner’s down field passing attack, Olson being back healthy and DJ Moore being added.
I still see it being somewhere in the 70s though.
Chaka
Footballguy
Agreed. Norvan likely won't run an offense that will generate a 100 catch season for a RB.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Not sure what you are talking about. This is as good as it gets in the June Shark Pool, doc.
Noah Davis
Footballguy
Just an assumption on how the Panthers season played out last year - 80 catches was extremely high. I placed that as a result of losing Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. So I assume with Olsen back and them drafting DJ Moore in the 1st round you'll see him revert a bit in catches. Add in CMC put on some good muscle and they drafted him as a 1st round RB so I think his carries goes up a bit. I still think they keep him around 18-20 all purpose touches per game..
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“While McCaffrey's rushing role lacked as a rookie, he more than made up for it through the air as he finished second all-time among all rookie RBs in total targets (113) since target-tracking began in 1992. McCaffrey's 3.72 YPC has been mocked all offseason, but as always, merely dividing yards by attempts misses a ton of crucial context. First and foremost, McCaffrey had the third-worst blocking advantage per PFF's data, indicating he faced 1.07 unaccounted for defenders in the box on average. Secondly, and just as important, the Panthers offensive line struggled to open lanes last year. Carolina finished the regular season with the 11th-fewest yards before first contact and 8th-worst figure in FootballOutsiders' adjusted offensive line yards.
After just 117 rookie season carries, I am far from calling McCaffrey an inefficient runner based on YPC alone. Relative to his team, McCaffrey bested Stewart in success rate out of fundamental offensive groupings like 11-personnel (McCaffrey: 40% success rate vs. Stewart: 35%), 12-personnel (McCaffrey: 50% vs. Stewart: 38%), and he boasted a 62% success rate in 21- and 13-personnel compared to Stewart's middling 38.5% success rate.
I've made the mistake of passing on McCaffrey when he falls to the late-second a few times and lived to type my regrets. Don't make the same blunder.”
Graham Barfield on twitter
After just 117 rookie season carries, I am far from calling McCaffrey an inefficient runner based on YPC alone. Relative to his team, McCaffrey bested Stewart in success rate out of fundamental offensive groupings like 11-personnel (McCaffrey: 40% success rate vs. Stewart: 35%), 12-personnel (McCaffrey: 50% vs. Stewart: 38%), and he boasted a 62% success rate in 21- and 13-personnel compared to Stewart's middling 38.5% success rate.
I've made the mistake of passing on McCaffrey when he falls to the late-second a few times and lived to type my regrets. Don't make the same blunder.”
Graham Barfield on twitter
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I've been telling folks since like page 5 of this thread.... dude IS a stud and will end up being a perennial pro-bowler in the NFL. I see him being a 280+ touch RB very soon, possibly as soon as this season. He's too good not to get the ball early and often. He just turned 22 for crying out loud!! McCaffrey is elite in almost every category other than top end speed and he's still plenty fast. He gonna prove a lot of people wrong in this thread. My ONLY concern is Norv Turner but his early coach speak is encouraging.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Also, my #### got hard when I saw this thread had been bumped.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
And what does Jourdan Rodrigue know? I have a prediction too. Jourdan Rodrigue has no F’in clue how many carries CMC will receive!
tombonneau
Footballguy
While we all agree Rivera's estimate is on the high side, I just love how a guy on Twitter casually assumes he has a better understanding of how the Panthers will distribute their touches than the team's head ####### coach does.
Classic 2018.
Classic 2018.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Gawain
Footballguy
Yeah, but Rivera's out there. His high side would give CMC the second most RB touches in a season of all time.
His low side (25 touches * 16 games = 400 touches) has only been met or exceeded by 27 players in NFL history. There have only been two guys with 400+ touches in a year since 2010 (Murray in '14 and Bell last year).
The touch estimates from Rivera are a little off.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He could get 25-30 touches for about the first three games before he started breaking down.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I’m guessing Rivera is targeting somewhere in the neighborhood of 500+ rushes this season. Look at CAR and their record under him. When they are run heavy they win, and when they don’t run as much they are mediocre. It’s a pretty simple correlation for them.
If McCaffrey can get 17.5 touches a game on average, with say 6 catches and 11.5 rushes per game, that probably gets him in the hunt for RB1 numbers while still being sustainable for him. It also contributes 184 rushes towards that 500 rush number, which seems reasonable and fits in with what Rivera would prefer to do. That seems like a pretty solid and reachable target
If McCaffrey can get 17.5 touches a game on average, with say 6 catches and 11.5 rushes per game, that probably gets him in the hunt for RB1 numbers while still being sustainable for him. It also contributes 184 rushes towards that 500 rush number, which seems reasonable and fits in with what Rivera would prefer to do. That seems like a pretty solid and reachable target
tombonneau
Footballguy
For sure, I agree with that. It's just a chuckle to see such sweeping dismissal of the head coach's take on how he wants to run his team. Obviously Ron did not think through his estimate, but what it implies is that he sees CMC as a focal point of the offense and he'll be heavily involved. A coach who plans on a 60/40 CJ/CMC rush ratio does not go out and casually drop those types of touch estimates. That's the mindset of a coach who sees CMC as potentially the straw that stirs the drink on offense.
Most of this off-season I've had no interest in drafting him in round 2 of redrafts. I traded him off one of my dynasty teams, tried trading him last dynasty teams of mine he's on. Had him listed as my #2 bust candidate most of the off-season. I'd add that I really did not see him outright busting but losing 2-3 PPG and delivering more low end RB2 numbers, more of what you might expect out of a 5th-6th round RB, not a second round pick. My thought process was that he looked physically over matched as a foundation runner and while he's a terrific route runner he was not as dangerous in space as I anticipated. Seemed more weapon to me than consistent high usage foundation type player. Add to that a major thing that got me high on him last year was the draft pedigree. You take a RB at 8 you are going to use him, there is pressure to use him but other than pressure you have to figure if a team takes a RB that high they have a specific plan in mind and they did. But the owner, GM and OC are all gone from last years team and that worried me a ton, worried me even more then CMC's uninspiring play last year. Finally you got an old school Norv who is not known to adjust his offense. I know Cordarelle Patterson, in hindsight, is a fantasy bust and all but he was at least making some plays his rookie year until Norv wanted nothing to do with trying to find ways to incorporate him in the offense. Norv wanted a WR, not a weapon. Not putting CMC on that Patterson level but I do consider him a "specialty back" to some degree and I had concerns Norv would adjust. Lastly Norv typically runs a power rushing attack which CJ Anderson seemed more suitable to perform. Just last week I heard Greg Cosell for instance say this, which I agreed with 100%: Based on Norv Turner offense, #Panthers signed CJ Anderson to be lead RB, feature /foundation and McCaffrey to play off that.
So that's were I'm coming from and I got to say you just can't ignore coach speak like this. Sure we all can 100% agree it's a gross exaggeration, but the point is taken. And when a guy posts low end RB1 numbers on 12.5 touches, so long as his receptions don't swoon, even getting 15 touches a game is more than justifiable for mid to high second round value.
I'd rather be wrong about a player in the off-season then be wrong about a player in prime drafting season. I'm starting to think I've been wrong about him and his outlook for 2018.
So that's were I'm coming from and I got to say you just can't ignore coach speak like this. Sure we all can 100% agree it's a gross exaggeration, but the point is taken. And when a guy posts low end RB1 numbers on 12.5 touches, so long as his receptions don't swoon, even getting 15 touches a game is more than justifiable for mid to high second round value.
I'd rather be wrong about a player in the off-season then be wrong about a player in prime drafting season. I'm starting to think I've been wrong about him and his outlook for 2018.
solorca
Footballguy
Steve Reed isn't a random guy on twitter. He has been covering the team for quite a while now and is pretty in tune with the team. I would trust him a lot more than the more prominent writers like Joe Person or Jordan Rodrique.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I know that these guys are just shooting from the hip, but they are professionals and they ought to be well aware of how many offensive plays they are likely to run on average, and thereby sound a little bit like they have some grasp of that data and access that with their expertise when they are speaking on the record.
tombonneau
Footballguy
So this when fantasy football players and bloggers tut-tut an OC with 30+ years experience for not knowing how many plays are run in a game?
Regardless, loving the bolded in this report from camp:
Regardless, loving the bolded in this report from camp:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
The big problem for me is that even if he had 200 carries, how often is he going to score? CAR has the highest rate of quarterback rushes inside the 20 going back five years. Newton likes to duck it in the end-zone, when possible. He's a the biggest TD vulture threat in the league. And even when they do run it, CJ is going to steal some of those looks.
McAffrey will never be a top 5 fantasy RB despite those insane catch numbers. He won't score enough TDs, unless he has some crazy-weird year like Kamira where he has multiple 70+ yard receiving TDs (which you cannot project).
And right now McAffrey is being taken around RB12 in PPR. Even if he maintains his insane catch totals (not going to happen), gets another 50 rushing attempts (also not likely), and increases his TD rate to score 9 instead of 7 (also not likely), he'd still cap out at RB8 numbers.
Just seems to me like people are drafting him at his max value. I'm happy to get him as a high-floor guy early in the 3rd round but I'm going to be passing on him in the mid-2nd where everyone else is taking him.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
In my most basic scoring PPR leagues, CMC was the 9th ranked RB last season and 20th overall ranked skill player (non-QB). I think he had 117 carries last season which is about 7 carries per game. HC and OC are saying 25-30 touches is realistic so at the very least he will DOUBLE his rushing opportunities. If he’s not on your radar in the first 2 rounds (PPR), you’re doing it wrong.
If you legitimately believe he's going to have 240 rushes I'll also plug you into a Nigerian prince with a great investment opportunity for you.
25 touches/game is 400 touches. In 2016, David Johnson accumulated 2,000 yards and 20 TDs ... on 370 touches. That's an insane usage rate in today's NFL and is still barely 23 touches per game. Those 25-30 touch numbers are so preposterous that they shouldn't' even warrant comment.
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Now, If we want to be realistic... 15- 20 touches/game would still be a MASSIVE bump up to his usage, considering he average 12 touches/game last year. So, let's say those comments are directionally accurate and he gets a 40% increase in his usage from last year to 17 touches/game this year. Almost all those touches will have to come in the running game because he already had 80 catches - you can't really get better than that as a running back. His YPC was not great ... 3.7. All those additional touches are going to be non-TD runs between the 20s.
I'm still not buying it. If he gets a bigger workload it's going to be more injury-prone between the tackles / between the 20s type work. The logic doesn't tie together for me to drop an early 2nd round pick on him.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You don’t think he can handle an addition 3 rushes per game? That seems pretty unrealistically pessimistic. And no one I have seen is drafting him as a top 5 RB. His ADP is solidly RB11 going about mid to later 2nd round.
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Where are those rushing numbers coming from? He's not going to be rushing more inside the 20s. If he scores, it's going to be short passes. Cam will also run a lot in himself, or their goal-line back will vulture TDs.
If he's not rushing more inside the 20s - it means he's rushing more between the 20s. Do you really think they're going to use their 205 lb running back between the tackles that much? Mcaffrey was used sparingly as a rusher, maybe to keep him fresh? Only had 117 rushes. Yet his YPC was not good, 3.7.
I don't mean to be overly pessimistic but it seems like people on these boards are legitimately buying into the 20+ touch per game theory. There's just no way that happens.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I agree with the comment on 20 touches per game, but I think you are going overboard swinging to the other end of the pendulum. Yes, I am convinced that he can handle 2 addition runs in the first half and 1 addition run in the second half, or vice versa, in every upcoming game. We saw what happened to his production in the second half of last year when his rushes increased 40% over the first half.
There’s no reason to think he can’t handle the additional 3 rushes per game - somewhere in the course of all the series CAR runs in a game - and have his production be equivalent to his second half production last year. That would make him a very solid RB1.
Okay, so he has 3 additional rushes per game. How does that help his fantasy value? They aren't going to be scoring rushes (between the 20s). 50 more rushes at 4.0 ypc would be 20 points over the course of the season. It's not going to boost his value much from his current numbers.Bronco Billy said:
The whole point of my discussion is that people are taking him at max value - and I don't like doing that. I agree he can replicate what he did last year - and add a few touches/carries. But I don't see him ever going above RB8-RB12 production. And that's where he's being drafted.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Isn't every player drafted in the first two rounds basically going at their max value?
tombonneau
Footballguy
Thanks, that was my thought. So the only value-based logical move is to keep trading down until a player can be acquired for a greater value than the pick? I just try to pick good players that I think will score a lot and the rest seems to take care of itself.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I never said I think he will get 25-30 per game. Go look at all my posts in this thread. I have pretty much called it right so far with CMC. I predicted he would be a top 5 NFL pick months BEFORE his final college season started and I got ridiculed and called names for it. Last year I kept saying that he is more than a COP RB and pleaded with others to remain patient and now his HC and OC are saying things to back up my claims.
Question - did you follow his college career? It seems obvious that you and the other haters did not. He was a workhorse playmaker in college in a pro system and he broke Barry Sanders record as a 19 year old sophmore. If you truly think he can’t handle 250 carries and 100 catches (350 total touches) then I don’t know what to tell you. Your loss I guess because you’ll be avoiding one of the top RBs who I project to be a perennial Pro Bowler for years to come. He ran between the tackles plenty in college and was literally the only weapon on his team. The defense knew he was getting the ball and they still couldn’t stop him. He is a STUD and will prove all the doubters wrong sooner than later. My main concern is Norv but he’s at least saying the right things. You really think CJ Anderson is good enough to take touches from CMC?! He’s not. He will get touches for sure but only as a backup when CMC needs a break.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
You seem quite certain that his extra touches won’t be inside the 20. I don’t agree. You don’t know where his touches will be and neither do I but you’re acting as if your opinion is fact. You are making a huge assumption here.
You also seem quite certain that since his touches will occur between the 20s the results will not yield TDs. You know CMC is known to be a playmaker/game changer right? Silly assumption that he can only score from goal line carries.
I’m left with believing you didn’t watch much of CMC in college yet you’re pounding the table with your opinions of his production this season. It’s hard to give your opinions any credibility when it seems so obvious you don’t know the player. Are you a petekrum alias by chance?
Penguin
Footballguy
The evolution of Christian McCaffrey
Last year during the Carolina Panthers training camp, there was a daily update on the slick moves then rookie running back Christian McCaffrey was putting on defenders. Social media (including mine) was all aflutter with videos of McCaffrey juking guys into oblivion. one quick step and he was gone. Excitement was high.
Unfortunately, those moves didn’t exactly translate during the regular season when the hitting was real. While McCaffrey proved to be an amazing threat in the passing game, the running game was never quite what we all thought it would be.
I have seen a change in CMC’s running style this year at Carolina Panthers training camp compared to last year. These days McCaffrey is running with more confidence. More confidence in his speed. More confidence in his ability. More confidence that he belongs.
No more juking. No more side stepping. That was rookie Christian McCaffrey. Now when CMC sees a hole, he hits it immediately and just keeps running. It appears he has learned his speed is enough to gain the needed yards, no side stepping required. And you know what? He is right. Although not as flashy, McCaffrey looks more like a starting NFL running back.
Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera has stated numerous times that McCaffrey is now the feature back of the Panthers. From witnessing McCaffrey first hand in training camp, I can report to you that he is not bluffing. When coach tells you CMC will get 25 carries a game, he isn’t bluffing.
At first I was a tad it concerned with this revelation. No more. What I have seen from McCaffrey this past week in camp tells me he is more than capable. So don’t worry about the lack of flashy CMC updates. It is all part of McCaffrey’s evolution.
Last year during the Carolina Panthers training camp, there was a daily update on the slick moves then rookie running back Christian McCaffrey was putting on defenders. Social media (including mine) was all aflutter with videos of McCaffrey juking guys into oblivion. one quick step and he was gone. Excitement was high.
Unfortunately, those moves didn’t exactly translate during the regular season when the hitting was real. While McCaffrey proved to be an amazing threat in the passing game, the running game was never quite what we all thought it would be.
I have seen a change in CMC’s running style this year at Carolina Panthers training camp compared to last year. These days McCaffrey is running with more confidence. More confidence in his speed. More confidence in his ability. More confidence that he belongs.
No more juking. No more side stepping. That was rookie Christian McCaffrey. Now when CMC sees a hole, he hits it immediately and just keeps running. It appears he has learned his speed is enough to gain the needed yards, no side stepping required. And you know what? He is right. Although not as flashy, McCaffrey looks more like a starting NFL running back.
Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera has stated numerous times that McCaffrey is now the feature back of the Panthers. From witnessing McCaffrey first hand in training camp, I can report to you that he is not bluffing. When coach tells you CMC will get 25 carries a game, he isn’t bluffing.
At first I was a tad it concerned with this revelation. No more. What I have seen from McCaffrey this past week in camp tells me he is more than capable. So don’t worry about the lack of flashy CMC updates. It is all part of McCaffrey’s evolution.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Now here what you want to read on a Saturday morning. And is he still only 22? Gonna be a nice ride in dynasty.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Technically, if all these reports are true, there is some value to be had at CMC's current ADP. Also, technically, the only pick in which you cannot extract value from is pick 1.01.
