RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (5 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

People are scared of CMC, and for good reason. In the 7 years since a 50/50 touch split with Jonathan Stewart his rookie season, here are his fantasy finishes: 1, 1, 1, 2, 39, 54, 69
He's either going to finish as a top 2 RB in 2025, or not finish at all. I'm guessing a 40% chance of finishing the season. If I do draft CMC, I am making sure I draft his backup at all costs.

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

 

[JohnnyU]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

That’s a fine and dandy backup plan, but it wouldn’t remove the sting of a bad trade for CMC should he be injured again.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s a fine and dandy backup plan, but it wouldn’t remove the sting of a bad trade for CMC should he be injured again.

Oh I’m with you 100% on that. I’ve said it multiple times: I would not trade for him. Not unless it was for peanuts (like a future 3rd & 4th) but unfortunately no one is selling him for peanuts because “upside to finish the RB1”. I don’t believe that but anyone selling him sure wants to assert it.

And he’s a solid DND for me in redraft.

I believe he’ll play less than 10 games. That injury he has is legit, and could come back literally at any time. He could be in the “best shape of his life” in camp one day, and the next morning have it flare up walking downstairs for breakfast.

Bilateral Achilles tendinitis. Twice the Achilles, twice the fun.

Nope.

The upside/ceiling is real. Unfortunately the floor is devastating. I am curious what his August redraft price will be.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Having the starting SF running back is a good thing. Run heavy and great offensive mind running the show.
CMC blew the lid off the top when he came to town. Was surprised to hear Jordan Mason was traded. Good sign CMC is going to be fine in 2025.

In drafts where I don't get McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo feels like a great click to cover the other side of that coin.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Having the starting SF running back is a good thing. Run heavy and great offensive mind running the show.
CMC blew the lid off the top when he came to town. Was surprised to hear Jordan Mason was traded. Good sign CMC is going to be fine in 2025.

I took it as a good sign that Guerendo was a better fit for Shanny’s offense since he’s more dynamic, & the Niners always seem to draft RB well.

In drafts where I don't get McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo feels like a great click to cover the other side of that coin.

Agree there 100%

Just make sure the RB2 isn’t James before you draft. Or like Pokémon, collect em all (er, both)!

 

[kface]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Having the starting SF running back is a good thing. Run heavy and great offensive mind running the show.
CMC blew the lid off the top when he came to town. Was surprised to hear Jordan Mason was traded. Good sign CMC is going to be fine in 2025.

I took it as a good sign that Guerendo was a better fit for Shanny’s offense since he’s more dynamic, & the Niners always seem to draft RB well.

In drafts where I don't get McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo feels like a great click to cover the other side of that coin.

Agree there 100%

Just make sure the RB2 isn’t James before you draft. Or like Pokémon, collect em all (er, both)!

What? The last bunch of rbs has been terrible sermon, price etc...at best they are maybe 50/50

I'm really trying to ditch CMC but can't get any interest

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What? The last bunch of rbs has been terrible sermon, price etc...at best they are maybe 50/50

Sorry I meant there always seems to be a guy - but you’re right, I’ve just memory hole’d the stinkers.

Some still hold out hope for Sermon - he keeps getting work, too.

 

[mcd]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Having the starting SF running back is a good thing. Run heavy and great offensive mind running the show.
CMC blew the lid off the top when he came to town. Was surprised to hear Jordan Mason was traded. Good sign CMC is going to be fine in 2025.

I took it as a good sign that Guerendo was a better fit for Shanny’s offense since he’s more dynamic, & the Niners always seem to draft RB well.

In drafts where I don't get McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo feels like a great click to cover the other side of that coin.

Agree there 100%

Just make sure the RB2 isn’t James before you draft. Or like Pokémon, collect em all (er, both)!

What? The last bunch of rbs has been terrible sermon, price etc...at best they are maybe 50/50

I'm really trying to ditch CMC but can't get any interest

The problem is, reports out of the practices they just finished up said McCaffrey looked slooow out there. If I'm trading for him now, his price will be much cheaper than if I make an offer week 12, when he has shown what he looks like and has survived much of the season.

 

[efactor]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Having the starting SF running back is a good thing. Run heavy and great offensive mind running the show.
CMC blew the lid off the top when he came to town. Was surprised to hear Jordan Mason was traded. Good sign CMC is going to be fine in 2025.

I took it as a good sign that Guerendo was a better fit for Shanny’s offense since he’s more dynamic, & the Niners always seem to draft RB well.

In drafts where I don't get McCaffrey, Isaac Guerendo feels like a great click to cover the other side of that coin.

Agree there 100%

Just make sure the RB2 isn’t James before you draft. Or like Pokémon, collect em all (er, both)!

What? The last bunch of rbs has been terrible sermon, price etc...at best they are maybe 50/50

I'm really trying to ditch CMC but can't get any interest

The problem is, reports out of the practices they just finished up said McCaffrey looked slooow out there.

What's the source of this "report"?

I read an AP report that said he looks great and even Tim Kawakami said the looked "very, very good". Kawakami is generally pretty negative

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kawakami is generally pretty negative

I think he’s more of a realistic / neutral observer. He comes off as negative when he sees more bad than good but I respect him more for that attempt at objectivity.

 

[menobrown]

I would not put any stock in how his speed looks in OTA but I read some concerning stuff a few days ago about how slow Next Gen Stats tracked him last year.

Maybe the time off will end up doing him some good.

 

[efactor]

I would not put any stock in how his speed looks in OTA but I read some concerning stuff a few days ago about how slow Next Gen Stats tracked him last year.

Maybe the time off will end up doing him some good.

He should have never played last year. Obviously he wasn’t right. Pretty easy to see.

Have seen nothing but glowing reports so far this camp. For what that’s worth.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe the time off will end up doing him some good.

I’m sure it will.

But I’m not sure that will matter. I’ve read a lot about his injury since I was invested last year, and because I’m a Niners fan.

It’s the sort of thing where he can rest up and “heal fully”, but the injury is still lurking. It’s both of his Achilles, so twice the risk. And it’s in the calf area.

It will never actually heal fully. He can have procedures, get PRP, etc - he’s still got bilateral Achilles tendentious.

He can come out the gate en Fuego, get a bunch of touches, score a couple TDs, then take 1 step in the shower, or get into his car at a weird angle and it’ll flare up, knocking him out. The other concern for CMC I haven’t mentioned is workload. Shanny’s comment struck me as a bit of foreshadowing. “We have to protect CMC from himself (paraphrasing - I posted the quote above). That seems to indicate he’s going to rotate RB in more than we’re used to seeing in a Shanahan offense. Guerendo & James (and probably 2 other dudes like Taylor and Izzy) will likely get more touches than they would in an otherwise normal CMC season.

So that “RB1 upside if healthy” might be a phantom. If he doesn’t get the touches to achieve that it won’t really matter if he stays healthy.

Just a thought. Might or might not come to pass, but I believe it’s a legitimate concern about his outlook.

 

[thecatch]

t. The other concern for CMC I haven’t mentioned is workload. Shanny’s comment struck me as a bit of foreshadowing. “We have to protect CMC from himself (paraphrasing - I posted the quote above). That seems to indicate he’s going to rotate RB in more than we’re used to seeing in a Shanahan offense. Guerendo & James (and probably 2 other dudes like Taylor and Izzy) will likely get more touches than they would in an otherwise normal CMC season.

Shanahan said the same thing early last year and immediately plugged him in for ~90% of the offensive snaps per game when he returned. I'll believe Shanahan won't run him into the ground when I see it.

 

[menobrown]

t. The other concern for CMC I haven’t mentioned is workload. Shanny’s comment struck me as a bit of foreshadowing. “We have to protect CMC from himself (paraphrasing - I posted the quote above). That seems to indicate he’s going to rotate RB in more than we’re used to seeing in a Shanahan offense. Guerendo & James (and probably 2 other dudes like Taylor and Izzy) will likely get more touches than they would in an otherwise normal CMC season.

Shanahan said the same thing early last year and immediately plugged him in for ~90% of the offensive snaps per game when he returned. I'll believe Shanahan won't run him into the ground when I see it.

Was about to say the same thing both relation to HSG’s lost and comment above that he should not have been playing.

Kyle threw him out there coming off an injury and Mason on a roll and he immediately rode him as hard as any RB in the league. He can’t help himself with CMC.

One concern I would not have on CMC is workload

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

t. The other concern for CMC I haven’t mentioned is workload. Shanny’s comment struck me as a bit of foreshadowing. “We have to protect CMC from himself (paraphrasing - I posted the quote above). That seems to indicate he’s going to rotate RB in more than we’re used to seeing in a Shanahan offense. Guerendo & James (and probably 2 other dudes like Taylor and Izzy) will likely get more touches than they would in an otherwise normal CMC season.

Shanahan said the same thing early last year and immediately plugged him in for ~90% of the offensive snaps per game when he returned. I'll believe Shanahan won't run him into the ground when I see it.

Was about to say the same thing both relation to HSG’s lost and comment above that he should not have been playing.

Kyle threw him out there coming off an injury and Mason on a roll and he immediately rode him as hard as any RB in the league. He can’t help himself with CMC.

One concern I would not have on CMC is workload

he also got skewered by the local media for doing so, especially when it predictably resulted in more injuries.

We’ll see what happens. I would normally agree with you here, but CMC another year older. We’ll see.

You’re probably right, but I’m hoping against hope he learned a lesson for the good of the team.

 

[efactor]

t. The other concern for CMC I haven’t mentioned is workload. Shanny’s comment struck me as a bit of foreshadowing. “We have to protect CMC from himself (paraphrasing - I posted the quote above). That seems to indicate he’s going to rotate RB in more than we’re used to seeing in a Shanahan offense. Guerendo & James (and probably 2 other dudes like Taylor and Izzy) will likely get more touches than they would in an otherwise normal CMC season.

Shanahan said the same thing early last year and immediately plugged him in for ~90% of the offensive snaps per game when he returned. I'll believe Shanahan won't run him into the ground when I see it.

Was about to say the same thing both relation to HSG’s lost and comment above that he should not have been playing.

Kyle threw him out there coming off an injury and Mason on a roll and he immediately rode him as hard as any RB in the league. He can’t help himself with CMC.

One concern I would not have on CMC is workload

Bad combination as far as over usage. CMC wants to play every down. Reminds me of Frank Gore when he is on the sidelines. Standing with helmet on, chomping at the bit to go back in. Coach has to be strict

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Coach has to be strict

Someone has to be the adult in the room.

 

[zoonation]

Having his backup isn’t the same as having a healthy CMC. It’s not as if that backup sniffs a top end RB finish.

Jordan Mason wasn’t CMC but he was a late round redraft league-winner when CMC was out.

And in Guerendo’s case, when given the opportunity last year he out-performed CMC statistically. And he left some on the table considering he slid to kill the clock before scoring on not 1 but 2 breakaway TD runs to secure the victory.

Certainly not a "league winner". More of an "easy path to the playoffs" guy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Certainly not a "league winner". More of an "easy path to the playoffs" guy.

Sure, but he was also a guy redrafters took in the 8th/9th round.

 

[JohnnyU]

Certainly not a "league winner". More of an "easy path to the playoffs" guy.

Sure, but he was also a guy redrafters took in the 8th/9th round.

Jordan James is better than Guerendo IMO

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Certainly not a "league winner". More of an "easy path to the playoffs" guy.

Sure, but he was also a guy redrafters took in the 8th/9th round.

Jordan James is better than Guerendo IMO

He may well be. Guerendo knows the offense since he’s been in it, and he’s faster which might be a better fit.

I think Mason is better than Guerendo as well, but he’s kind of a 1-dimensional back, which reportedly limited the playbook and stifled creativity of the offense.

I’ve heard that while James has decent initial burst he’s lacking in long speed (4.55 40) which Guerendo has in spades.

If CMC goes down it might well be a committee. I roster both in one league so I’d certainly like it to be one or the other.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Christian McCaffrey, fully healthy, leads the way in 49ers' energetic first 2025 practice

https://archive.ph/XKY7B

SANTA CLARA — “Bouncy” might be best descriptor for the 49ers’ first open 11-on-11 practice of this 2025 season.

Christian McCaffrey, most notably, looked like his springy, pre-injury self. And as the 49ers try to put their nightmarish 2024 ordeal far into the rearview mirror, that may be the most significant development of all.

Thursday’s session saw McCaffrey catch a handful of passes from quarterback Brock Purdy and sprint toward the end zone on every single one of his carries — even after the play had been whistled dead.




I'll take any good news regarding CMC

MoP is listening and it reflects what i am hearing reported as well
Do I trust CMC to stay healthy all season? That's another matter all together but early reports are glowing
It's like nobody saw your posts

I understand why people will step right over him at redrafts after last season
I'm not sure what his floor is for ADP, it feels like someone will always grab him end of 1st if he's still there

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm not sure what his floor is for ADP, it feels like someone will always grab him end of 1st if he's still there

At that price he’s either a league winner or a doorstop.

I’m more risk averse in the 1st to bank on CMC this year. Others will be more cavalier about it and that’s ok. More for them.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Check the odometer .. Time to sell

I have been saying that for years about King Henry. More recently about Aaron Jones’s, Joe Mixon, and Kamara.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Christian McCaffrey, fully healthy, leads the way in 49ers' energetic first 2025 practice

https://archive.ph/XKY7B

SANTA CLARA — “Bouncy” might be best descriptor for the 49ers’ first open 11-on-11 practice of this 2025 season.

Christian McCaffrey, most notably, looked like his springy, pre-injury self. And as the 49ers try to put their nightmarish 2024 ordeal far into the rearview mirror, that may be the most significant development of all.

Thursday’s session saw McCaffrey catch a handful of passes from quarterback Brock Purdy and sprint toward the end zone on every single one of his carries — even after the play had been whistled dead.




I'll take any good news regarding CMC

MoP is listening and it reflects what i am hearing reported as well
Do I trust CMC to stay healthy all season? That's another matter all together but early reports are glowing
It's like nobody saw your posts

I understand why people will step right over him at redrafts after last season
I'm not sure what his floor is for ADP, it feels like someone will always grab him end of 1st if he's still there

He will be an interesting case come draft day. Nobody knows anything. He can look good today, flare up and be done tomorrow. We know his upside and his downside. Really depends how risk averse you are.

 

[travdogg]

I'm sure it will rise as positive reports roll in throughout the summer, but as his current RB10 ADP, I'm 100% on board. In early best ball drafts, I've seen him going after guys like Chase Brown, Breece Hall, and James Cook at RB and WRs like Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tee Higgins, and to me that's just being FAR too risk averse on a guy who could finish #1 overall in points, an upside none of those guys have even remote shots at.

I get not taking CMC at his top-5 overall usual price point, but man, the upside in round 3 (and sometimes even late 3rd, like #35)) is WAY to enticing for me right now. Just feel like there is a big overcorrection going on here.

 

[FarFromHome]

I'm sure it will rise as positive reports roll in throughout the summer, but as his current RB10 ADP, I'm 100% on board. In early best ball drafts, I've seen him going after guys like Chase Brown, Breece Hall, and James Cook at RB and WRs like Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tee Higgins, and to me that's just being FAR too risk averse on a guy who could finish #1 overall in points, an upside none of those guys have even remote shots at.

I get not taking CMC at his top-5 overall usual price point, but man, the upside in round 3 (and sometimes even late 3rd, like #35)) is WAY to enticing for me right now. Just feel like there is a big overcorrection going on here.

Yep. Him hitting as your rb2 is a league winning recipe.

 

[ffmail4me]

I think there is a better chance than most think he could play this entire season healthy and be a top 5 back. The rest and time off last year probably did his body good. If he's finally healthy, he's going to produce. I agree he's one of the riskiest players you could draft, but man that upside is KILLER. I own him in a few leagues and am hoping for the best...but you better have some other good options just in case injuries flare up.

 

[menobrown]

I'm sure it will rise as positive reports roll in throughout the summer, but as his current RB10 ADP, I'm 100% on board. In early best ball drafts, I've seen him going after guys like Chase Brown, Breece Hall, and James Cook at RB and WRs like Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tee Higgins, and to me that's just being FAR too risk averse on a guy who could finish #1 overall in points, an upside none of those guys have even remote shots at.

I get not taking CMC at his top-5 overall usual price point, but man, the upside in round 3 (and sometimes even late 3rd, like #35)) is WAY to enticing for me right now. Just feel like there is a big overcorrection going on here.

Not sure what kind of leagues you are talking about but he’s a late first round pick in FFPC leagues, even with him being on bye the the week of the LCG. Went 8 and 10 in the last 2 drafts I was in.

I remember doing my first draft in January and took him at 2.10. Was seeing him go in early rd 3 in some other drafts but that all changed some time ago.

 

[ghostguy123]

Didn't we all expect him to be fine right up before week 1 last year?? Then bam. PUP

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

and to me that's just being FAR too risk averse on a guy who could finish #1 overall in points, an upside none of those guys have even remote shots at.

This echoes me, exactly last year when I trusted the info out there, took CMC at his word, and spent the only 1.01 I drew all year on him.

Then BAM! I lost by 2.3 points week 1 because CMC was. DNP.

He is a DND for me unless he’s there in the 5th round. I know he won’t be, so he’s never getting drafted by me this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Didn't we all expect him to be fine right up before week 1 last year?? Then bam. PUP

Exactly. It was all sunshine & butterflies and sugar plum dreams of RB1 upside.

Right up until it became a nightmare.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yep. Him hitting as your rb2 is a league winning recipe.

Me winning the lottery tonight is a life-winning recipe.

I’d put about the same odds on a 17 game season out of CMC.

As a fan of the player and team, it pains me to say it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

the upside in round 3 (and sometimes even late 3rd, like #35)) is WAY to enticing for me right now

He’s already an end of the 1st in the ADP I’m looking at.

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
“The run was evidence that McCaffrey, who missed the bulk of the 2024 season with Achilles and knee injuries, is back at full strength and looking more like his 2023 self. And it seemed symbolic of the extra pep the San Francisco 49ers seem to have this spring.”

https://x.com/32beatwriters/status/1928627075478347929?s=61

 

[darksideofoz]

I just joined my 1st dynasty league a couple days ago. Orphaned team, to help out some friends since they were getting desperate to get the spot filled and get the offseason stuff moving (they were almost 2 months behind schedule).

The team is rough. Not the best draft capital (the league gave me a compensatory 1st round draft pick since the team didn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this year). I have OK to good QB and TE depth. A little to play with on the IDP side, but rough everywhere else.

At RB I can't really count on getting any rookies that I'm all that high on. I have the aforementioned 1.11 pick and then 3.03 is my next pick. My 1.11 is currently in limbo for a deal to poach Jalen Hurts from another team, and if that doesn't go through then I'll get Nico Collins with that pick (and next year's 1st). So, as of right now I'm trying to plan on 3.03 being my earliest pick.

Current RB corps: Conner, CEH, Ekeler, Marshawn Lloyd and Brian Robinson. The only RBs that aren't rookies that would be available for the FA auction in a few weeks are CMC, Henry, Travis Etienne and David Montgomery. Slim pickings. I'm contemplating going after CMC and hope he is looking good early in the season and flip him for future draft capital.

My salary cap is 285.24. I have about 150 in cap space (could go down between 4 and 20 depending on what happens with Hurts, and some other things going on in the league). I have the 2nd most cap space in the league.

So, how much do you think CMC would be worth for a 1 year rental just hoping to be traded away mid season? Top 10 RB contracts right now are from 10.73 to 29.93. I feel I could live with a $15 contract offer, but I also feel like someone else would bid more than that. Or, do you think it makes more sense to go after Henry? scoring is .5 ppr/.5 pp1st.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm sure it will rise as positive reports roll in throughout the summer, but as his current RB10 ADP, I'm 100% on board. In early best ball drafts, I've seen him going after guys like Chase Brown, Breece Hall, and James Cook at RB and WRs like Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tee Higgins, and to me that's just being FAR too risk averse on a guy who could finish #1 overall in points, an upside none of those guys have even remote shots at.

I get not taking CMC at his top-5 overall usual price point, but man, the upside in round 3 (and sometimes even late 3rd, like #35)) is WAY to enticing for me right now. Just feel like there is a big overcorrection going on here.

Not sure what kind of leagues you are talking about but he’s a late first round pick in FFPC leagues, even with him being on bye the the week of the LCG. Went 8 and 10 in the last 2 drafts I was in.

I remember doing my first draft in January and took him at 2.10. Was seeing him go in early rd 3 in some other drafts but that all changed some time ago.

Went pick #5 overall in the recent FBG Survivor league which prioritizes consistency over upside. FBG has him projected as player #12 RB/WR/TE in ppr.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@32BeatWriters
“The run was evidence that McCaffrey, who missed the bulk of the 2024 season with Achilles and knee injuries, is back at full strength and looking more like his 2023 self. And it seemed symbolic of the extra pep the San Francisco 49ers seem to have this spring.”

https://x.com/32beatwriters/status/1928627075478347929?s=61

Sunshine & butterflies for all my friends.

 

[Faust]

Christian McCaffrey 'as healthy as can be,' says 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan from OTAs

 

[Faust]

Why Darnold believes CMC's internal ‘fire' is key to bounce-back effort

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I just joined my 1st dynasty league a couple days ago. Orphaned team, to help out some friends since they were getting desperate to get the spot filled and get the offseason stuff moving (they were almost 2 months behind schedule).

The team is rough. Not the best draft capital (the league gave me a compensatory 1st round draft pick since the team didn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this year). I have OK to good QB and TE depth. A little to play with on the IDP side, but rough everywhere else.

At RB I can't really count on getting any rookies that I'm all that high on. I have the aforementioned 1.11 pick and then 3.03 is my next pick. My 1.11 is currently in limbo for a deal to poach Jalen Hurts from another team, and if that doesn't go through then I'll get Nico Collins with that pick (and next year's 1st). So, as of right now I'm trying to plan on 3.03 being my earliest pick.

Current RB corps: Conner, CEH, Ekeler, Marshawn Lloyd and Brian Robinson. The only RBs that aren't rookies that would be available for the FA auction in a few weeks are CMC, Henry, Travis Etienne and David Montgomery. Slim pickings. I'm contemplating going after CMC and hope he is looking good early in the season and flip him for future draft capital.

My salary cap is 285.24. I have about 150 in cap space (could go down between 4 and 20 depending on what happens with Hurts, and some other things going on in the league). I have the 2nd most cap space in the league.

So, how much do you think CMC would be worth for a 1 year rental just hoping to be traded away mid season? Top 10 RB contracts right now are from 10.73 to 29.93. I feel I could live with a $15 contract offer, but I also feel like someone else would bid more than that. Or, do you think it makes more sense to go after Henry? scoring is .5 ppr/.5 pp1st.

The way you describe this team, it sounds like you are more than one player away from contending. Why invest all that capital into an aging asset? I would use that money on acquiring young assets.

 

[H8fulHuck]

ADP is 10.6 on underdog best ball redraft and rising. He was going consistently in the 2nd round March/April.

 

[pinkstapler]

I don't think I'll own even one share of CMC this year. He's going in the 1/2 turn just about everywhere and I would take just about every WR in that turn ahead of him 95% of the time. Give me Puka, BTJ, Nabers, and even Nico over CMC and that volatility, injury risk. Sure if he hits and stays healthy you have a top 3 RB. The years he hasn't: RB68, 38, 53. May as well just throw your first round pick in the garbage at that point. I'll gladly give up some ceiling with one of my first two draft picks and take the much, much safer floor. I can make up losing some ceiling later in the draft or on waivers; no one is making up getting goose eggs from a top 16 draft pick.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think I'll own even one share of CMC this year. He's going in the 1/2 turn just about everywhere and I would take just about every WR in that turn ahead of him 95% of the time. Give me Puka, BTJ, Nabers, and even Nico over CMC and that volatility, injury risk. Sure if he hits and stays healthy you have a top 3 RB. The years he hasn't: RB68, 38, 53. May as well just throw your first round pick in the garbage at that point. I'll gladly give up some ceiling with one of my first two draft picks and take the much, much safer floor. I can make up losing some ceiling later in the draft or on waivers; no one is making up getting goose eggs from a top 16 draft pick.

I understand that logic. You probably won’t win your league with your 1st round pick, but you sure as hell can lose it.

 

[H8fulHuck]

I don't think I'll own even one share of CMC this year. He's going in the 1/2 turn just about everywhere and I would take just about every WR in that turn ahead of him 95% of the time. Give me Puka, BTJ, Nabers, and even Nico over CMC and that volatility, injury risk. Sure if he hits and stays healthy you have a top 3 RB. The years he hasn't: RB68, 38, 53. May as well just throw your first round pick in the garbage at that point. I'll gladly give up some ceiling with one of my first two draft picks and take the much, much safer floor. I can make up losing some ceiling later in the draft or on waivers; no one is making up getting goose eggs from a top 16 draft pick.

For people who play the big best ball contests like BBM competing with 670k+ teams, that upside is critical when shooting for that first place 2M prize.

Yes he will sink 14% of my entries if he’s a dud, but I didn’t miss out on getting those 2nd round shares. Could easily be the guy you need to win.

For your dynasty and home leagues, agree it’s more risky since you only get one shot. Type of injury he had appears higher risk to relapse. Safer to go with another set it and forget it anchor.

Or take him while people are scared if you think he will smash early. Sell after he goes off.

 

[pinkstapler]

I don't think I'll own even one share of CMC this year. He's going in the 1/2 turn just about everywhere and I would take just about every WR in that turn ahead of him 95% of the time. Give me Puka, BTJ, Nabers, and even Nico over CMC and that volatility, injury risk. Sure if he hits and stays healthy you have a top 3 RB. The years he hasn't: RB68, 38, 53. May as well just throw your first round pick in the garbage at that point. I'll gladly give up some ceiling with one of my first two draft picks and take the much, much safer floor. I can make up losing some ceiling later in the draft or on waivers; no one is making up getting goose eggs from a top 16 draft pick.

For people who play the big best ball contests like BBM competing with 670k+ teams, that upside is critical when shooting for that first place 2M prize.

Yes he will sink 14% of my entries if he’s a dud, but I didn’t miss out on getting those 2nd round shares. Could easily be the guy you need to win.

For your dynasty and home leagues, agree it’s more risky since you only get one shot. Type of injury he had appears higher risk to relapse. Safer to go with another set it and forget it anchor.

Or take him while people are scared if you think he will smash early. Sell after he goes off.

100% worth it in best balls, especially those with crazy high number of entrants. Agree with your take 100%. To win those kinds of leagues you need to practically draft the "perfect" roster, which means you pretty much swing for the fences every pick. CMC would not only be a good pick there, but to your point, when he falls to the second round should probably be an auto pick.

On a side note, I should really do more best balls than I do; I just don't love the "rake" most host sites take off the top of the prize pool, and then the whole potential of what they do/don't report to the IRS as far as winnings. Whenever I do the math of rake + taxes I should pay if I win, the juice rarely feels worth the squeeze with the exception of those 10k+ entry lottery ticket ones.

 

[darksideofoz]

To flip him for future draft capital in the middle of the season. I don't have draft capital this year and I have plenty of cap space to also go after the young scraps in free agency after the rookie draft. I can do them both. The main reason I can't compete this year is because of my RBs and current draft capital.

 

[H8fulHuck]

To flip him for future draft capital in the middle of the season. I don't have draft capital this year and I have plenty of cap space to also go after the young scraps in free agency after the rookie draft. I can do them both. The main reason I can't compete this year is because of my RBs and current draft capital.

Exactly why I mentioned the flip. One of the contenders might pay you with quality draft capital/young upside to win this season. You’d take on the risk CMC is still a stud (which I believe he is) until you pull the trigger. Adding a top 5 RB mid season is very attractive.