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RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (24 Viewers)

I think the willingness to trade away their "starting" RB....(define starting as you feel appropriate) ...."says" a lot when it was something they "did"....and I think it is because of Bill...
The beat writer was saying it was partly because of JCM and also because Rodriguez and McNichols were also having a great camp. Said Rodriguez looked like he’d dropped about 10 lbs & is probably their best power back.

Lot of dudes. Lot of skills overlap. BRob probably the least explosive of the group.

So yeah, JCM definitely had something to do with moving BRob, but it wasn’t JCM alone.
 
man I don't know....you gotta plant your flags a little more then you used too....I think dude is legit and in a great situation and I like the message WAS is sending with what they have "done"...I'll reach a little...
I get this.

Seems premature for a flag plant. They haven’t actually “done” anything except move off of BRob, who they’d deemed expendable. They didn’t cut Eke or the other dudes.

I respect the flag plant. And agree you’ve gotta go get your dudes. But it feels like it’s a little early to be talking about “league-winning upside” for a dude who might be part of a big RBBC that also includes Deebo & Daniels.
 
Think this says a lot about what they think of Brian Robinson, as well.

All the new staff needs to clear 3 million in cap space is 3 or 4 guys they are happy with, that aren't Robinson. If they think he's just a banger, just a guy, they don't have to cut anyone they like.

For all we know, they are happy with Bill as their 3rd back.
 
Think this says a lot about what they think of Brian Robinson, as well.

All the new staff needs to clear 3 million in cap space is 3 or 4 guys they are happy with, that aren't Robinson. If they think he's just a banger, just a guy, they don't have to cut anyone they like.

For all we know, they are happy with Bill as their 3rd back.
:goodposting:

Appreciate this post - I hate to feel like the only Debbie downer in here. :lol:
 
you want him the current sweet spot is round 9/10 (10/11 in 10 teamers). so take him in the 8th if you really want him. once the rbs available are in the dobbins/etn/mason/charbs zone he won't last long. and ain't no one picking jwill before him
 
Man, on August 5th I took this dude 17.08 (traded up a few spots) of a start-up.

Upthread someone said he was picked in the 3rd of a national high stakes tourney. That’s wild.

I thought 7.10 was steep last night, too. I was aiming for him at 9.03 feeling like I was gonna reach.

It does make me miss the olden days of FF. The roller coaster value swings are just insane in the Information Age.
 
man I don't know....you gotta plant your flags a little more then you used too....I think dude is legit and in a great situation and I like the message WAS is sending with what they have "done"...I'll reach a little...
I get this.

Seems premature for a flag plant. They haven’t actually “done” anything except move off of BRob, who they’d deemed expendable. They didn’t cut Eke or the other dudes.

I respect the flag plant. And agree you’ve gotta go get your dudes. But it feels like it’s a little early to be talking about “league-winning upside” for a dude who might be part of a big RBBC that also includes Deebo & Daniels.
it's not too early to plant a flag when you draft is this weekend....
 
JCM is a sell high at this moment due to hype train. Cause everyone wants the new shiny toy.
I just don't see how a SB contending team can trust a 7th round rookie with little experience.
I do NOT doubt JCM's athleticism. I think he is in a good spot for next year and beyond.

They will want to use veterans who has NFL experience to take snap counts with Daniels. These SB windows are rare.
 
Think this says a lot about what they think of Brian Robinson, as well.

All the new staff needs to clear 3 million in cap space is 3 or 4 guys they are happy with, that aren't Robinson. If they think he's just a banger, just a guy, they don't have to cut anyone they like.

For all we know, they are happy with Bill as their 3rd back.
they know what they have in Eke and Rodriguez.....and they are still paying $1 mil of Brob's 3.4 mil salary while he plays for SF....neither Eke or Rodriguez supplanted Brob last year...?...if they were "so exited about "Eke and Rodriguez" this year and not Bill....you probably don't trade Brob and still pay part of his salary....they don't free up that much with this move....2.4....
 
it's not too early to plant a flag when you draft is this weekend....
Plant that flag brother.

If he hits with league-winning upside, you’ll be a legend.
🫡
it's still a matter of reading the room....my flag plant is basically saying I'd be happy with him as my RB3....wherever that happens to fall in my 12 team draft...and depends on what pick I have which is currently 1.07 but we can trade draft slots before the draft, but nothing during the draft.....so when I say reach a little...it might have to be if I don't think he survives one of the turns and gets back to me....
 
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Think this says a lot about what they think of Brian Robinson, as well.

All the new staff needs to clear 3 million in cap space is 3 or 4 guys they are happy with, that aren't Robinson. If they think he's just a banger, just a guy, they don't have to cut anyone they like.

For all we know, they are happy with Bill as their 3rd back.
they know what they have in Eke and Rodriguez.....and they are still paying $1 mil of Brob's 3.4 mil salary while he plays for SF....neither Eke or Rodriguez supplanted Brob last year...?...if they were "so exited about "Eke and Rodriguez" this year and not Bill....you probably don't trade Brob and still pay part of his salary....they don't free up that much with this move....2.4....
I think they like Bill enough to wanna keep him.

Beyond that, I'm not reading he's taking over. I'm reading what everyone else is reading, they like him.

But I haven't read he's running only with the ones. I haven't even read that he's at #2.

Dynasty, he's the only guy worth having, for sure. For redraft, all we know is he's in the mix.
 
Think this says a lot about what they think of Brian Robinson, as well.

All the new staff needs to clear 3 million in cap space is 3 or 4 guys they are happy with, that aren't Robinson. If they think he's just a banger, just a guy, they don't have to cut anyone they like.

For all we know, they are happy with Bill as their 3rd back.
they know what they have in Eke and Rodriguez.....and they are still paying $1 mil of Brob's 3.4 mil salary while he plays for SF....neither Eke or Rodriguez supplanted Brob last year...?...if they were "so exited about "Eke and Rodriguez" this year and not Bill....you probably don't trade Brob and still pay part of his salary....they don't free up that much with this move....2.4....
I think they like Bill enough to wanna keep him.

Beyond that, I'm not reading he's taking over. I'm reading what everyone else is reading, they like him.

But I haven't read he's running only with the ones. I haven't even read that he's at #2.

Dynasty, he's the only guy worth having, for sure. For redraft, all we know is he's in the mix.
We also know it’s an offense that uses situational RBs.

Might JCM be the best situational back for what they want to do all the time? I’m skeptical.

It’s not about Rodriguez or Eke supplanting BRob, because they all have different roles. Like using a screwdriver when ya need to screw something in, or using a hammer when ya gotta hammer something in.

I know they like all these guys for situations. Who’ll be used the most?
:shrug:


Agree about dynasty, and I’m psyched to have a share. Long-term he’s probably the best lotto ticket.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
Terrell Davis, Bo Jackson, Foster, Mike Anderson, Alfred Morris, and Pacheco is on his way I think...

I don't count Bo since that was weird , Morris is a good call and I am not so sure Pacheco yet.
Yeah Pacheco shows how hard it is. He’s done everything he can and been in the perfect situation for multiple good fantasy seasons and it still hasn’t quite happened for him.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
Terrell Davis, Bo Jackson, Foster, Mike Anderson, Alfred Morris, and Pacheco is on his way I think...

I don't count Bo since that was weird , Morris is a good call and I am not so sure Pacheco yet.
Yeah Pacheco shows how hard it is. He’s done everything he can and been in the perfect situation for multiple good fantasy seasons and it still hasn’t quite happened for him.

I was just reading the thread and people talking about using a first or early second on him in their dynasty rookie drafts is crazy to me. This draft is loaded with backs, has like 6ish wrs I would take over him, two tight ends, a qb and probably 10ish rbs.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
Terrell Davis, Bo Jackson, Foster, Mike Anderson, Alfred Morris, and Pacheco is on his way I think...

I don't count Bo since that was weird , Morris is a good call and I am not so sure Pacheco yet.
Yeah Pacheco shows how hard it is. He’s done everything he can and been in the perfect situation for multiple good fantasy seasons and it still hasn’t quite happened for him.
I get what you are saying. An injury derailed Pacheco last season. His career trajectory isn’t so different from KW3, though, and Walker was the first RB taken in the same draft, IIRC. I would be excited to have JCM follow that same trajectory.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
Terrell Davis, Bo Jackson, Foster, Mike Anderson, Alfred Morris, and Pacheco is on his way I think...

I don't count Bo since that was weird , Morris is a good call and I am not so sure Pacheco yet.
Yeah Pacheco shows how hard it is. He’s done everything he can and been in the perfect situation for multiple good fantasy seasons and it still hasn’t quite happened for him.
I get what you are saying. An injury derailed Pacheco last season. His career trajectory isn’t so different from KW3, though, and Walker was the first RB taken in the same draft, IIRC. I would be excited to have JCM follow that same trajectory.
Oh yeah with a 7th round pick like this, you're playing with house money.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
There was that guy who played in Denver, what was his name...

For every Terrell Davis, there are 10 James Robinsons.
James Robinson is an outcome I am perfectly happy with. Heck I'll be pretty pleased with a Myles Gaskin outcome.

For redraft it is great, but for dynasty that isn't what you should be looking for from a late 1st or early 2nd.
 
I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?
There was that guy who played in Denver, what was his name...

For every Terrell Davis, there are 10 James Robinsons.
James Robinson is an outcome I am perfectly happy with. Heck I'll be pretty pleased with a Myles Gaskin outcome.

For redraft it is great, but for dynasty that isn't what you should be looking for from a late 1st or early 2nd.
Perhaps not early 2nd, but peopled were taking Jaydon Blue and Devon Neal in the 2nd this year, and I think they'd be happy with that outcome from either guy.

To answer your original question, Pacheco is probably the most recent example. Not many more I can think of from that round before going back to Alfred Morris. If you stretch to back half of the 5th you get guys like Aaron Jones, Chase Brown, Kyren Williams all going after pick 160.

Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had. I don't think I'd be brave enough to move an early 2nd for him, but I won't be critical of people being they conviction. If you make a big move and you are right, it is a nice profit and a lot of fun.

Plus, I used similar logic when I was making a quick profit on puka after 1 week (how many 5th round wrs really hit long term), and that has not aged well.
 
Lots of people saying that they’re just moving off of Brian Robinson and a lot of people looking at constants and changes and saying JCM is the cause while others say Rodriguez has improved. Should be interesting. I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the Bill basket yet but it would seem like more hurdles have been cleared than your usual second-round rookie pick (dynasty round, I mean). I might regret it, but it would take more than a late second. KTC has him at the 2.09.

I do not love the level of competition and PFF saying he plays slower than his testing. That gives me pause.
 
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Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had
That framing isn’t entirely accurate considering the team in question has long used role players for early down, short yardage, and receiving.

They liked JCM better for the role BRob, who’s been a JAG, had.

It’s not like WAS had some highly rated feature back that JCM pushed out of a job. One could argue that WAS didn’t actually have “an incumbent starter”.
 
It sounds like a perfect storm. Team is unhappy with their main back. Team drafts guy that should have gone about two rounds higher in the NFL Draft but had eligibility issues. Team’s other backs on rookie contracts improve also. Veteran on cheap deal with risk is still around.

Washington hasn’t made a commitment to Bill. Doesn’t sound like anything but an opportunity. People getting over their skis should pause. They’ve been writing about this since the draft, which means they were not happy with Brian Robinson. A million ways this can go, and we’re likely just entering the uncertainty for fantasy,

Don’t count on this as being sewn up. This is exciting because of where you could get him in dynasty drafts if you were in the know. I don’t like his redraft ADP that I’m seeing. But this is fun. Let’s have fun with it.
 
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It sounds like a perfect storm. Team is unhappy with their main back. Team drafts guy that should have gone about two rounds higher in the NFL Draft but had eligibility issues. Team’s other backs on rookie or ERFA contracts improve also. Veteran on cheap deal with risk is still around.

Washington hasn’t made a commitment to Bill. Doesn’t sound like anything but an opportunity. People getting over their skis should pause. They’ve been writing about this since the draft, which means they were not happy with Brian Robinson. A million ways this can go, and we’re likely just entering the uncertainty for fantasy,

Don’t count on this as being sewn up. This is exciting because of where you could get him in dynasty drafts if you were in the know. I don’t like his redraft ADP that I’m seeing. But this is fun. Let’s have fun with it.
I like JCM and am certainly interested in drafts but I think this also makes Rodriguez a screaming value. He's kind of the Invisible Man right now.
 
It sounds like a perfect storm. Team is unhappy with their main back. Team drafts guy that should have gone about two rounds higher in the NFL Draft but had eligibility issues. Team’s other backs on rookie or ERFA contracts improve also. Veteran on cheap deal with risk is still around.

Washington hasn’t made a commitment to Bill. Doesn’t sound like anything but an opportunity. People getting over their skis should pause. They’ve been writing about this since the draft, which means they were not happy with Brian Robinson. A million ways this can go, and we’re likely just entering the uncertainty for fantasy,

Don’t count on this as being sewn up. This is exciting because of where you could get him in dynasty drafts if you were in the know. I don’t like his redraft ADP that I’m seeing. But this is fun. Let’s have fun with it.
I like JCM and am certainly interested in drafts but I think this also makes Rodriguez a screaming value. He's kind of the Invisible Man right now.

He’s going for an amount in my dynasty league that is more FAAB than I have en toto. It was what half my budget would have been. I almost added him for like a buck a month ago and should have. There are also a million takes on Rodriguez from “improved” to “still just another guy.”

He and Ekeler and JCM have roles that are totally uncertain and unclear as of now. Ekeler seems to be the guy insiders point to but always with the caveat that he recedes into the background in about a month while Bill ascends (the insiders rarely mention Rodriguez).

JCM’s NFL Draft Profile


Rodriguez’ role per Dan Quinn:

 
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Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had
That framing isn’t entirely accurate considering the team in question has long used role players for early down, short yardage, and receiving.

They liked JCM better for the role BRob, who’s been a JAG, had.

It’s not like WAS had some highly rated feature back that JCM pushed out of a job. One could argue that WAS didn’t actually have “an incumbent starter”.
There is nothing inaccurate about the framing. Unlike most late round picks, the leading rusher is suddenly out of the picture without a different replacement. That's quite a rare scenario.

I am not saying it definitively means JCM will take over, but to me it definitively refutes an argument like "how many round 6-7 guys actually hit?" We're in tny sample size territory now, so I don't think the historical odds are all that relevant.
 
So here is where the nickname Bill comes from “Croskey-Merritt prefers to be called Bill. He took the nickname after the titular character from the children's television series Little Bill for having a near-bald hairstyle in his youth”
 
Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had
That framing isn’t entirely accurate considering the team in question has long used role players for early down, short yardage, and receiving.

They liked JCM better for the role BRob, who’s been a JAG, had.

It’s not like WAS had some highly rated feature back that JCM pushed out of a job. One could argue that WAS didn’t actually have “an incumbent starter”.
There is nothing inaccurate about the framing. Unlike most late round picks, the leading rusher is suddenly out of the picture without a different replacement. That's quite a rare scenario.

I am not saying it definitively means JCM will take over, but to me it definitively refutes an argument like "how many round 6-7 guys actually hit?" We're in tny sample size territory now, so I don't think the historical odds are all that relevant.
Your implication that BRob was the Commanders breadwinner at RB rather than part of a committee was inaccurate. If that wasn’t your implication, then my bad - the bolded sure seemed to imply that. The Commanders leading rusher from 2024 was Daniels.

Also, while JCM appears to have made the roster, he hasn’t actually “hit” yet. Dude hasn’t scored a single FF point, and we don’t know how he’ll be used.

I have a share. I’m excited for the potential. But let’s not go popping Champaign corks yet. If JCM turns out to be merely a cog in a 4-way machine (not even including Daniels or Deebo), then that won’t exactly be the rare seismic event you’re describing here.

As @rockaction suggested, with comments like those we’re getting out over our skis just a bit. Hey, maybe it’ll happen - I’m rooting for it. But it hasn’t happened yet.
 
Perhaps not early 2nd, but peopled were taking Jaydon Blue and Devon Neal in the 2nd this year,

Who? Those people are outliers.

eta* I don’t mean to sound caustic. I’m just surprised by Neal.

You are correct unless it is a 16 team league or greater.

First 16 picks were some order of this.

Jeanty
Hunter
Tet
Hampton
Golden
Egbuka
Kaleb
Ward
Loveland
Warren
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Higgins
Burden
Skattebo
Kyle Williams
Tuten

I would still take all those guys ahead of "Bill"

I would take JCM anytime after all these guys depending on my team needs.
 
GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"

COACH "I doubt we will even notice really."

GM "10-4."

I think you’re giving this awfully short shrift. We rarely see teams dump their lead back in training camp. I would split the difference between the pessimist and optimist. 5th Round - UDFAs rarely work out, but you don’t hear often of a dumped incumbent. That should really be the analogous condition you’re looking to compare to this one. You can’t take the success rate of a low draft pick without considering the very drastic reality of a coach and GM cutting their main back two weeks before the season. Right now WAS has a UDFA, another UDFA, a sixth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. Who do you bet on then?
 
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GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"
For all we know BRob was already gonna be gone before they found out they had anything in JCM.

Doubt it. They waited. Otherwise they just would have cut him. They made sure he gave them certain qualities that made Robinson expendable. If they’d decided for sure to move on, they would have acted differently. Peters didn’t like how the year ended, but he was covering all the bases, and one of the bases was that BRob was the best available for what they could afford.
 
You can’t take the success rate of a low draft pick without considering the very drastic reality of a coach and GM cutting their main back two weeks before the season. Right now WAS has a UDFA, another UDFA, a sixth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. Who do you bet on then?
As I pointed out above, calling BRob WAS “main back” is a little off.

Their leading rusher was their QB, and they happen to be a team that heavily employs a RBBC.

It’s actually kind of common for RBBC guys to be replaced. They’re all role players and as such could be somewhat expendable. The context does matter.
 
GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"
For all we know BRob was already gonna be gone before they found out they had anything in JCM.

Doubt it. They waited. Otherwise they just would have cut him. They made sure he gave them certain qualities that made Robinson expendable. If they’d decided for sure to move on, they would have acted differently. Peters didn’t like how the year ended, but he was covering all the bases, and one of the bases was that BRob was the best available for what they could afford.
Possible, sure. We just don’t know, so either assuming the worst for BRob or assuming the best for JCM seems premature. It’s all speculation at this point.
 
You can’t take the success rate of a low draft pick without considering the very drastic reality of a coach and GM cutting their main back two weeks before the season. Right now WAS has a UDFA, another UDFA, a sixth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. Who do you bet on then?
As I pointed out above, calling BRob WAS “main back” is a little off.

Their leading rusher was their QB, and they happen to be a team that heavily employs a RBBC.

It’s actually kind of common for RBBC guys to be replaced. They’re all role players and as such could be somewhat expendable. The context does matter.

No, it’s not off. I haven’t read one article that hasn’t called him something to that effect. Ekeler was hurt often last year—he missed weeks on end. Robinson was the main guy.
 
GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"
For all we know BRob was already gonna be gone before they found out they had anything in JCM.

Doubt it. They waited. Otherwise they just would have cut him. They made sure he gave them certain qualities that made Robinson expendable. If they’d decided for sure to move on, they would have acted differently. Peters didn’t like how the year ended, but he was covering all the bases, and one of the bases was that BRob was the best available for what they could afford.
Possible, sure. We just don’t know, so either assuming the worst for BRob or assuming the best for JCM seems premature. It’s all speculation at this point.

No, we infer. That’s how we get threads like this started in March. One infers.
 
We can wait and see regardless. I’ve been pretty temperate in my view of everything. There aren’t many dumped incumbents where there wasn’t both a desire to move on and a replacement in some form or another. They wouldn’t wait until two weeks left to decide this. Just seems highly unlikely. JCM might not even start. We don’t know. But they assessed what they had, and decided upon either him or a committee (or Breece Hall).
 

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