RB Javonte Williams, DEN (2 Viewers)

[menobrown]

I had read this after the signing and IMO this Bronco's beat writer has a good read on the situation.

https://twitter.com/ryanohalloran/status/1519146520511082496

@ryanohalloran

Interesting move by #Broncos to re-up Gordon days before the draft.

1. Not like any of the Day 3 RBs?

2. Feel the sweet spot for Javonte is 250 carries (203 as rookie)?

3. Gotta think club was up front with Gordon about role (no longer a starter, no longer 50-50 split), right?

 

[Marauder]

I had read this after the signing and IMO this Bronco's beat writer has a good read on the situation.

https://twitter.com/ryanohalloran/status/1519146520511082496

@ryanohalloran

Interesting move by #Broncos to re-up


Gordon


days before the draft.

1. Not like any of the Day 3 RBs?

2. Feel the sweet spot for Javonte is 250 carries (203 as rookie)?

3. Gotta think club was up front with


Gordon


about role (no longer a starter, no longer 50-50 split), right?

I don't think it will be a 50-50 split but the problem is that Gordon will probably take a lot of the high value touches.  Gordon has never been a great between the tackles guy.  His strengths are as a receiver and a short yardage guy.  Javonte is also good in those areas but he's also a much better rusher between the twenties so that might be the way they split it up.

 

[menobrown]

I don't think it will be a 50-50 split but the problem is that Gordon will probably take a lot of the high value touches.  Gordon has never been a great between the tackles guy.  His strengths are as a receiver and a short yardage guy.  Javonte is also good in those areas but he's also a much better rusher between the twenties so that might be the way they split it up.

That's my main concern as well. I feel like Javonte is going to be in the 60-65% range when both backs are healthy and most of your high end fantasy RB's are between 65-70% of the snap counts so pretty much in range, ,minimal dropoff. Najee's an outlier and CMC and healthy Dalvin have been in the past but unlikely to be that way going forward. Najee is only RB in the league I confidently feel is an over 70% snap count RB and that's when fully healthy, CMC would be my next choice.

But as you pointed out not all touches are equal. I don't have access to it but read multiple tweets from Benjamin Allbright in last year when he'd defend Gordon against Denver fans that wanted more Javonte by pointing out that one area Gordon outperformed Javonte by a lot was framed as either positive run percentage or lack of negative rushes. In other words Javonte took a lot more negative rushing attempts then Gordon and when you think of goal line area that's not what you want.

 

[Sam Quentin]

If you have two healthy talented backs, you ride them both.  
 

I think Javonte gets more work as the ascending talent vs Gordon, but he might be on a shorter leash.

 

[Dez]

Javonte went 1.11 last night in the RTS high stakes draft.  The 3rd/4th round theory not happening here so far.

 

[Faust]

ESPN's Jeff Legwold believes Javonte Williams will see "slightly more carries" as the leader of the Broncos' running back committee in 2022.

The Broncos re-signed veteran running back Melvin Gordon earlier this offseason, spurring the sigh heard around the fantasy community. Hopes of Williams having sole possession of Denver's backfield were put on hold for the 2022 season, but Legwold believes Williams will still see an increase in work. Last season, Williams and Gordon each saw 203 carries, with Gordon's 918 rushing yards just edging out Williams' 903. Williams was being drafted as a top-5 back before Gordon re-signed with the team. A high-end RB2 in PPR leagues may be a more realistic expectation for him at this point.

RELATED: 

Melvin Gordon

SOURCE: ESPN

May 7, 2022, 6:26 PM ET

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If there is any RB IMO whose ADP is going to fall in August, it's Williams.  

His ADP right now is Top 10.  Melvin Gordon's is in the late 30's.  These guys pretty much produced at the same level in 2021.

Unimaginative Pat Shurmer as their OC and Teddy Bridgewater as the QB resulted in 406 RB carries yields to Nate Hackett and Russell Wilson, while the new brain trust said 'yes, let's pay Melvin Gordon between $2.5-$4M'.

He's an RB2, not an RB1.

 

[Stoneworker]

If there is any RB IMO whose ADP is going to fall in August, it's Williams.  

His ADP right now is Top 10.  Melvin Gordon's is in the late 30's.  These guys pretty much produced at the same level in 2021.

Unimaginative Pat Shurmer as their OC and Teddy Bridgewater as the QB resulted in 406 RB carries yields to Nate Hackett and Russell Wilson, while the new brain trust said 'yes, let's pay Melvin Gordon between $2.5-$4M'.

He's an RB2, not an RB1.

Agreed.

On a per game basis, Jones/Dillon split touches roughly 55/45 last year for Packers under Hackett. Anyone projecting a higher touch rate for Williams this year with Gordon in the mix is doing so on hope and hope alone.

Wilson has even more receiving weapons in DEN than Rodgers last year so can't see a Shurmur-esque emphasis on running game. So very shaky using Javonte's 203 carries last year as a baseline.

Last year A.Jones finished RB14 on a 0.5 PPR / game basis. I would expect something similar in the upper mid RB2 range this year for Javonte.

What's interesting is that AJ Dillon was roughly RB33, so not sure if Gordon is as undervalued as may appear.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

If there is any RB IMO whose ADP is going to fall in August, it's Williams.  

His ADP right now is Top 10.  Melvin Gordon's is in the late 30's.  These guys pretty much produced at the same level in 2021.

Unimaginative Pat Shurmer as their OC and Teddy Bridgewater as the QB resulted in 406 RB carries yields to Nate Hackett and Russell Wilson, while the new brain trust said 'yes, let's pay Melvin Gordon between $2.5-$4M'.

He's an RB2, not an RB1.

I'm seeing and ADP of 13 on both Underdog and ESPN.

Underdog is 11- Fornette- 12- Chubb- 13- Javonte-Kamara-Conner-Zeke-Etienne

ESPN is  11 Jones-12- Conner-13-Javonte-Chubb-Akers

We're more or less in agreement but a few factors:

1. They waited months before signing Melgo who is #3 in active (I'm not counting Bell or Gore) touches at 1761 behind Ingram (2042) and Zeke (who's also 2 years younger) (1938). At age 29. 

2. If you listen to Cecil Lammey during OTAs there's some smoke about "there's a chance this is going to be the Javonte show." I think he whispered it. So if you heard that the day you were drafting, maybe you felt frisky.

3. He's a tackle breaking machine and had a year to improve on pass pro, learning to be a pro etc. Ascending player on an ascending offense. 

So if you're OTC and you're looking at Aaron Jones who is for sure having his rushing role slip but might lead his team in targets. Conner who's a TD regression candidate that's never been able to be a full season bellcow and was only thrust into that role because of injuries. Chubb who's part of maybe a 3 man rotation on an offense that might struggle and won't catch any passes? 

Kamara's seemingly sitting for 6 games?

Fornette and Jones for me. Then Conner. But who you taking at 13? Maybe Saquon is the answer there? Zeke? Akers? Chubb? I get it it's just that there's a path for any of these guys to be a good pick there and the story for Javonte top 8 isn't any less likely than any of these other guys in that spot. 

 

[Stoneworker]

Fornette and Jones for me. Then Conner. But who you taking at 13? Maybe Saquon is the answer there? Zeke? Akers? Chubb? I get it it's just that there's a path for any of these guys to be a good pick there and the story for Javonte top 8 isn't any less likely than any of these other guys in that spot. 

This is where tier-based drafting could really pay off.

It all depends on where you're drafting of course, but instead of reaching for Javonte grab a tier 1 WR (Lamb, Diggs) and then pick up someone at the mid/low end of the RB2 tier like Zeke, Akers, Dobbins, etc. with the next pick.

 

[menobrown]

Sometimes you got to risk a little downside for how things look today for the upside potential of what could be.

My guess is he'll have a hard time living up to his ADP so long as Gordon is healthy, very surprised.

The case for Javonte is what he could be based on the schedule to close the season and what he did in his one game he got to be the guy last year. Those are compelling reasons to keep him high on my board, most especially in national type contests. 

So I think his ADP is valid at least for the national type contests, probably not just for trying to win a typical league. Just got to know what you are buying and that is you are likely taking a little haircut compared to other similar RB options with the tradeoff of arguably highest possible upside at the most crucial time.

I do not exaggerate when I say if you told me Javonte Williams would be healthy last few weeks of the season and Melvin Gordon would either not be or something less likely such as age finally slows him down late in the season relegating him to more of a traditional backup that there is no RB I'd take over him those last few weeks. That's what you pay this price for, that possibility.

 

[jm192]

Sometimes you got to risk a little downside for how things look today for the upside potential of what could be.

My guess is he'll have a hard time living up to his ADP so long as Gordon is healthy, very surprised.

The case for Javonte is what he could be based on the schedule to close the season and what he did in his one game he got to be the guy last year. Those are compelling reasons to keep him high on my board, most especially in national type contests. 

So I think his ADP is valid at least for the national type contests, probably not just for trying to win a typical league. Just got to know what you are buying and that is you are likely taking a little haircut compared to other similar RB options with the tradeoff of arguably highest possible upside at the most crucial time.

I do not exaggerate when I say if you told me Javonte Williams would be healthy last few weeks of the season and Melvin Gordon would either not be or something less likely such as age finally slows him down late in the season relegating him to more of a traditional backup that there is no RB I'd take over him those last few weeks. That's what you pay this price for, that possibility.

Not in the 2nd round.  I'm not taking that kind of a risk, needing things to break right.  You do you.  But I like to go safe guys in the early rounds, upside as the draft moves into the mid and later rounds.  

 Gordon is priced like a guy splitting a backfield--Williams is priced like an RB1 with little to no competition. 

IF Williams were to go down, Gordon now has that cush playoff schedule, and you've gotten him several rounds later.  

I'll take Gordon everywhere I can get him at his current ADP.

 

[TS Garp]

I'm seeing Javonte fall as far as the middle to occasionally the end of the 3rd round in some best ball drafts and I'll take every time at that point, especially because he'll exceed that ADP even with Gordon healthy all season and of course he'd crush it if Gordon were to miss time.  With that said, I think Gordon is a good pick, too. He played really well last year and actually showed better than Javonte in certain advanced metrics.  He's in a range of RB's I like (Hunt, Singletary, Edmonds, Rhamondre, Penny, Cook) but I'm definitely adding him depending on build. I do think it's worth noting re: both Javonte and Gordon that Russ has not been great about throwing to his backs.  A RB never caught 40 passes in a season w/Russ.  Carson had 37 twice and Lynch had seasons of 36 and 37, but I don't think it's really his game - it's not where he looks and he's not proficient at hitting his backs, as counter-intuitive as that sounds.  I say this because Bridgewater was obviously a very different kind of QB and Javonte and Gordon (to a lesser extent) benefited from Bridgewater's willingness to check down.  I think it's entirely possible that a drop in receptions is mitigated by an increase in TD opportunities but it's something to consider.

 

[Payne]

Champion owners take chances. Those who play it safe usually don't win championships. 

I don't enter leagues to finish 2nd. 

 

[Stoneworker]

Champion owners take chances. Those who play it safe usually don't win championships. 

I don't enter leagues to finish 2nd. 

Too funny. Clearly there are no other champion FF owners browsing the SP.

 

[Shawnky]

Champion owners take chances. Those who play it safe usually don't win championships. 

I don't enter leagues to finish 2nd. 

I took a chance on him last year taking him as my RB2 after loading up on WRs and taking Waller in the 3rd.  I even waited on QB and took Cousins in the 10th.  I still didn't make it past the semis.  His situation hasn't changed from last year, and I don't see Hackett running him in the ground with Gordon in the fold.   He's a buy in dynasty, but he isn't winning you a title this year taking him in the 3rd or before.

 

[jm192]

Champion owners take chances. Those who play it safe usually don't win championships. 

I don't enter leagues to finish 2nd. 

Why don't you take Cam Akers in the 1st round?  That would be "taking a chance."  

You don't do it because you realize don't just take chances for the sake of taking chances.  That's absurd.  

People won taking Cooper Kupp in the middle rounds last year.  They didn't overpay for Kupp because they knew he'd break out.  They took him at value and he paid off.  

People are drafting Williams as if the Gordon signing didn't happen.  Ignoring the facts because you like the talent is a bad move.  It's not "taking a chance."  

 

[massraider]

I think Javonte's ADP is a direct result of the backs drafted right after him:

Chubb
A. Jones
Fournette
Barkley
Montgomery
Conner

I'm a Chubb guy, I think he's the best back in the league, but QB questions, and a definite RBBC lowers his ceiling. The rest of these guys don't have the UP arrow on their career like Javonte does.  

So if you took a WR in round 1 or HAVE to go RB/RB, I can see why he goes there. But still probably too early.

I'll take a WR there, and then get me some Etienne, Jacobs, Gibson, or Dobbins later.  

 

[travdogg]

I don't get people thinking Gordon being back means 2021 is what will happen. Its a new coaching staff (but not front office) who signed Gordon to a small contract after letting him sit for over a month. They traded up for Williams, he was impressive as a rookie, and the offense should easily score 10+ more TD's with a huge QB upgrade. 

Williams saw just over 50% of the workload as a rookie, I'd be shocked if he didn't increase that by quite a bit. I'd be betting on say, 65% or so. I look at Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as a template. 

I think Williams is well worth a 2nd round pick, and could potentially be a top-5 RB even without a Gordon injury. He had 1200-7 last season, and should see more work, and especially have more redzone chances. The Broncos have scored 34 and 36 TD's the last 2 seasons, Seattle scored 48 and 55. I think Williams having 1500-14 isn't an unreasonable expectation. 

 

[rockaction]

I think Williams having 1500-14 isn't an unreasonable expectation. 

This could turn out to be a bad prediction with poor reasoning behind it, unless I'm misunderstanding your premises, which really doesn't matter anyway because your conclusion doesn't just jump to conclusions, it Evil Kneevils over the Grand Canyon. Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones as a template for those kind of numbers and snap share? They don't even sniff that snap share you mention. You're way off. 

If this sounds harsh, it's because you have so many contra-consensus points about everything, a lot of them often wrong and based on fantasticisms (not a word, but should be). You know your stuff about who/what/where in the league, but I don't see how you draw the conclusions you do often times. So it's not meant to be harsh, I just have no idea where you're pulling that conclusion from with premises that faulty. 

I also do it because people read these boards sometimes almost like FF advice from publications, see your prognostication, and roll with it in their heads. They should know what they're getting for real, which is not 1500-14 from Javonte Williams for certain, but a total reach at the highest end of the rushing yardage-touchdown spectrum. 

Anyway, unless I misinterpreted you, I disagree wholeheartedly and there, laid bare, is the contra opinion to your contra opinion. 

 

[travdogg]

This is a bad prediction with poor reasoning behind it, unless I'm misunderstanding your premises, which really doesn't matter anyway because your conclusion doesn't just jump to conclusions, it Evil Kneevils over the Grand Canyon. Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones as a template for those kind of numbers and snap share? They don't even sniff that snap share you mention. You're way off. 

If this sounds harsh, it's because you have so many contra-consensus points about everything, a lot of them often wrong and based on fantasticisms (not a word, but should be). You know your stuff about who/what/where in the league, but I don't see how you draw the conclusions you do often times. So it's not meant to be harsh, I just have no idea where you're pulling that conclusion from with premises that faulty. 

Its possible you are misunderstanding my premise, I may have glossed over some of it, just assuming it read how I thought it did.

Nathaniel Hackett is now Denver's HC, he was GB's OC from 2019-2021. In 2020 and 2019 his RBs were Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Jones had roughly 65% of workload, in 2019 and 2020. Last year was a little different, but I think its less relevant as AJ Dillon is a much different RB than any of Javonte, Gordon, Jamaal, or Jones. I'm seeing Javonte as Jones and Gordon as Jamaal when looking to what Hackett could/will use as his way of splitting the workload. I don't see Gordon seeing close to the 50% he saw last season, as being what the expectation should be this season, as that was a different coaching staff, and Williams should be much more up to speed since he's not a rookie. 

The addition of Russell Wilson should increase both the efficiency and overall scoring of the offense. So with more work, more efficiency, and more TD's being scored overall. I think Williams can increase from his 1200-7 season last year, to something like 1500-14 this year. 

 

[rockaction]

Its possible you are misunderstanding my premise, I may have glossed over some of it, just assuming it read how I thought it did.

I think that's probably the case. I was thinking of Jones and Williams on their current teams, not the Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams pairing of '19-'20. That's the rub, really. 

I also thought you were giving total rushing yards and touchdowns, not passing and rushing yards and touchdowns. That's also a pretty significant rub. 

So your prediction seems more doable, but I highly doubt it for the simple reason I think you're way too optimistic about Hackett's snap share. It could be that Aaron Jones was just that valuable compared to Jamaal Williams and that A.J. Dillon's usage more reflects his preference in back share. Also, Russ has never thrown to his backs, something that will carry over here, one thinks. I think the passing yards you're assuming are just too high, as are the touchdowns. 

But I back off the strength of my comments given your clarification. Cool beans. 

We won't know all this until the year develops, though. Thanks for the clarification. 

 

[rockaction]

I also should say that I appreciate your content, travdogg. Just a little contra sometimes and I was surprised by the severe boldness of your prediction -- or what I understood it to be. 

 

[travdogg]

I also should say that I appreciate your content, travdogg. Just a little contra sometimes and I was surprised by the severe boldness of your prediction -- or what I understood it to be. 

No sweat. Always open to explaining myself. I'd hate to develop a reputation for being Skip Bayless-esq and just having hot takes for the sake of it. 

I will add in this case, that I used the Jones/Williams comp and not Jones/Dillon, because I think extremely highly of AJ Dillon and think he might be a top-10 RB if only he weren't stuck on a team that didn't already have a top-10 RB. I think Javonte is in that top-10 RB talent conversation as well, but I don't think Gordon is. Based on the contract Gordon ended up settling for, it doesn't seem like NFL does either, as he's actually making less than Jamaal Williams. 

I agree with you on Wilson and passing to RBs, and the increased yardage is mostly from an expected increase in efficiency, particularly in YPC. Williams averaged 4.5 last year (as did Gordon to be fair) despite seeing frequent loaded boxes. Seattle has averaged 5.0, 4.8, 4.6, and 4.8 the last 4 seasons, despite a worse OL than Denver, and less creative playcalling. I think a 5.0 YPC is reasonable with teams actually respecting/fearing the passing game. 

 

[joey]

Thanks @rockactionand @travdoggfor the constructive, mature and educational back and forth that all the readers of this thread gained from reading, even if we (I) didn’t have anything to add

 

[rockaction]

Thanks @rockactionand @travdoggfor the constructive, mature and educational back and forth that all the readers of this thread gained from reading, even if we (I) didn’t have anything to add

Thanks. If it wasn't too late, I'd omit the second paragraph of my first post and just concentrate on the issue at hand rather than travdogg's contrarianism. He's just calling it as he sees it, and Lord knows the NFL and its followers don't necessarily have a monopoly on being right. 

 

[jm192]

I don't get people thinking Gordon being back means 2021 is what will happen. Its a new coaching staff (but not front office) who signed Gordon to a small contract after letting him sit for over a month. They traded up for Williams, he was impressive as a rookie, and the offense should easily score 10+ more TD's with a huge QB upgrade. 

Williams saw just over 50% of the workload as a rookie, I'd be shocked if he didn't increase that by quite a bit. I'd be betting on say, 65% or so. I look at Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as a template. 

I think Williams is well worth a 2nd round pick, and could potentially be a top-5 RB even without a Gordon injury. He had 1200-7 last season, and should see more work, and especially have more redzone chances. The Broncos have scored 34 and 36 TD's the last 2 seasons, Seattle scored 48 and 55. I think Williams having 1500-14 isn't an unreasonable expectation. 

I think you have to consider the entire range of outcomes.  And then how likely they are to reach their upside--that's how highly you draft them.

Gordon could be Jamal Williams.  Or they could just do what they did last year.  I'm not standing on a box proclaiming loudly that "The Broncos will split carries in 2022."  But I think it's very possible.  Gordon is a good back.  The running game worked well last year.  It makes logical sense that they'd like to limit wear and tear on the RB of the future while they can still grind value out of Gordon. 

And while teams will often take it easy on the rook the 1st year and then use him more the 2nd year--there isn't usually someone the Caliber of Melvin Gordon to keep taking away touches. 

So while we may see Denver decide J Williams is the guy, I'm not spending a 2nd round pick HOPING he gets a massive opportunity.  That early in the draft, I want someone with a clear path to it.  

 

[MTskibum]

I just offered a 1st, 3rd, and Brandon Aiyuk for him in one dynasty league. Although, this will probably get shot down and I do not think I will sweeten the deal.

I am going to be all in on him I think

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think you have to consider the entire range of outcomes.  And then how likely they are to reach their upside--that's how highly you draft them.

Gordon could be Jamal Williams.  Or they could just do what they did last year.  I'm not standing on a box proclaiming loudly that "The Broncos will split carries in 2022."  But I think it's very possible.  Gordon is a good back.  The running game worked well last year.  It makes logical sense that they'd like to limit wear and tear on the RB of the future while they can still grind value out of Gordon. 

And while teams will often take it easy on the rook the 1st year and then use him more the 2nd year--there isn't usually someone the Caliber of Melvin Gordon to keep taking away touches. 

So while we may see Denver decide J Williams is the guy, I'm not spending a 2nd round pick HOPING he gets a massive opportunity.  That early in the draft, I want someone with a clear path to it.  

He finished with 1,115 total yards and 7 total TDs last season in a time-share. Even if he didn't seen an increase in usage (which I think is unlikely) that wouldn't kill you in the second round.

Now when you factor that he has another year experience, while Gordon has aged another year and the "fact" that the Denver offense is going to be much better with Russell Wilson (instead of Drew Lock, et. al.), it's pretty tough not to see an increase in production from Williams in 2020.

I don't see him as a risky second round pick at all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just offered a 1st, 3rd, and Brandon Aiyuk for him in one dynasty league. Although, this will probably get shot down and I do not think I will sweeten the deal.

I am going to be all in on him I think

Seems like a very solid offer.  If I’m the JWill shareholder I reject it & ask for 2x 2023 1sts & a 2nd along with Aiyuk. And they I still might not do it. lol

JWill is going to be a very, very good RB. 

 

[Stoneworker]

Lots of folks who are 1) using 2021 as a floor for Javonte's 2022 production, then 2) adding on top of that with an assumed % increase in usage relative to M.Gordon.

This is doubly risky/flawed IMO.

1) In 2021 with the Packers, Hackett ran the comparable duo of Jones/Dillon 358 times. Meanwhile J.Will/Gordon had 406 combined carries with the 2021 Broncos. A major reason is of course that the Broncos had crap QB's. There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will have a higher run/pass ratio with the Broncos and their new HoF QB than Hackett used with the Packers and their HoF QB.  Which of course argues that J.Will's floor of carries should actually be revised downward as a 2022 starting point.

2) There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will increase the 1A/1B RB distribution with the Broncos any different than the Packers 1A/1B duo of A.Jones/Dillon. None. And the 2021 Jones/Dillon touch distribution was roughly 55/45.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lots of folks who are 1) using 2021 as a floor for Javonte's 2022 production, then 2) adding on top of that with an assumed % increase in usage relative to M.Gordon.

This is doubly risky/flawed IMO.

1) In 2021 with the Packers, Hackett ran the comparable duo of Jones/Dillon 358 times. Meanwhile J.Will/Gordon had 406 combined carries with the 2021 Broncos. A major reason is of course that the Broncos had crap QB's. There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will have a higher run/pass ratio with the Broncos and their new HoF QB than Hackett used with the Packers and their HoF QB.  Which of course argues that J.Will's floor of carries should actually be revised downward as a 2022 starting point.

2) There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will increase the 1A/1B RB distribution with the Broncos any different than the Packers 1A/1B duo of A.Jones/Dillon. None. And the 2021 Jones/Dillon touch distribution was roughly 55/45.

Is there ever "proof" of what will happen in the context of fantasy football projections?

The difference between 406 carries and 358 carries is 2.8 carries a game - which is basically a rounding error. I don't believe any conclusion can really be formed based on those numbers. But in your "worst case scenario" Williams may get 1-2 less carries a game. Is there any possibility that he'll maybe see 1 or 2 more targets per game instead?

For point 2 - yes that's the crux of the discussion. Some will think Williams should separate a little more from Gordon as Williams gains experience and Gordon ages another year. Some think the virtual 50/50 split will remain in tact. We won't have "proof" of either statement until the end of 2022 - it will be too late then.

Plus with a more effective offense - shouldn't we be factoring in more potential TDs for the RBs?

 

[Stoneworker]

Plus with a more effective offense - shouldn't we be factoring in more potential TDs for the RBs?

In 2021, Jones/Dillon had 16 total TD's for the playoff-bound Packers.

In 2021, J.Williams/Gordon had 17 total TD's for the putrid Broncos.

Oh well. So much for the "RB's score more TD's on the more effective offense" theory.

 

[matuski]

Lots of folks who are 1) using 2021 as a floor for Javonte's 2022 production, then 2) adding on top of that with an assumed % increase in usage relative to M.Gordon.

This is doubly risky/flawed IMO.

1) In 2021 with the Packers, Hackett ran the comparable duo of Jones/Dillon 358 times. Meanwhile J.Will/Gordon had 406 combined carries with the 2021 Broncos. A major reason is of course that the Broncos had crap QB's. There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will have a higher run/pass ratio with the Broncos and their new HoF QB than Hackett used with the Packers and their HoF QB.  Which of course argues that J.Will's floor of carries should actually be revised downward as a 2022 starting point.

2) There is no proof whatsoever that Hackett will increase the 1A/1B RB distribution with the Broncos any different than the Packers 1A/1B duo of A.Jones/Dillon. None. And the 2021 Jones/Dillon touch distribution was roughly 55/45.

I don't think "proof" means what you think it means.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In 2021, Jones/Dillon had 16 total TD's for the playoff-bound Packers.

In 2021, J.Williams/Gordon had 17 total TD's for the putrid Broncos.

Oh well. So much for the "RB's score more TD's on the more effective offense" theory.

Thats not a theory - its a general statement that’s true in most cases. Obviously what you posted there is a valid point I’m just not sure it’s predictive. 
 

Overall I think you made a good point in the post I quoted - my response was just that we don’t know much yet. Your view has a great chance to be the reality. I’m on the more positive side myself.

 

[Stoneworker]

I don't think "proof" means what you think it means.

Justification then. Whatever.

 

[Stoneworker]

Thats not a theory - its a general statement that’s true in most cases. Obviously what you posted there is a valid point I’m just not sure it’s predictive. 

Overall I think you made a good point in the post I quoted - my response was just that we don’t know much yet. Your view has a great chance to be the reality. I’m on the more positive side myself.

All good. I was just pointing out the risks and admittedly have a conservative bias for all baseline FF projections, and then try to factor in less reliable upside potential.

As you point out no one is right but good discussion to test one's own beliefs.

Generally agree with the statement about more efficient offenses. In this particular case, however, IMO it needs to be somewhat balanced by how run-reliant the Broncos were last year under Shurmur and w/o a good QB. 

 

[matuski]

I am using 2021 as a floor because he came on strong the second half of the season (usage and yards), he passes the eyeball test, and the team is better on paper this year.

All the justification I need.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

All good. I was just pointing out the risks and admittedly have a conservative bias for all baseline FF projections, and then try to factor in less reliable upside potential.

As you point out no one is right but good discussion to test one's own beliefs.

Generally agree with the statement about more efficient offenses. In this particular case, however, IMO it needs to be somewhat balanced by how run-reliant the Broncos were last year under Shurmur and w/o a good QB. 

I think barring injury it’s a given that the offense improves as a whole - doesn’t mean Williams even scores the 7 TDs he did last season, but 10-11 is more “ceiling” but doesn’t seem all that unreachable to me. I’m a fan of his talent that baked the price of Gordon into him before he re-signed so I’m not surprised or all that worried. If he falls to 2.10 (in a 14 team redraft) I’ll be happy to take him there. I see a very solid floor barring injury - I’m buying more into the upside knowing Gordon is a possible drain.

 

[Payne]

Why don't you take Cam Akers in the 1st round?  That would be "taking a chance."  

You don't do it because you realize don't just take chances for the sake of taking chances.  That's absurd.  

People won taking Cooper Kupp in the middle rounds last year.  They didn't overpay for Kupp because they knew he'd break out.  They took him at value and he paid off.  

People are drafting Williams as if the Gordon signing didn't happen.  Ignoring the facts because you like the talent is a bad move.  It's not "taking a chance."  

Not sure how my post has anything to do with taking Akers in the 1st.

I had this same argument about taking D Cook in the 1st round a few years back as well. Search it. People told me what a bad move it was because he wasn't supposed to be taken that high. I understand what you're saying, but sometimes you can't play it safe or follow the norm to win. 

I 100% disagree with your "ignoring the facts" comment. Sometimes you go with your gut and you reach to get a guy you believe in.

 

[massraider]

If you think Javonte is a real talent, assuming he increases touches on his 2nd season seems reasonable. 

I think he's the goods. I think this talent could demand more touches over a back who is good, but not special. 

The presence of Gordon might cap his ceiling, that's a good bet. But I'm ready to believe that he gets more work. 

And you have the upside of: maybe Gordon gets hurt, or maybe Gordon gets a LOT less work than expected. In which case, RB1 is on the table. 

But yes, still going up early. 

 

[jm192]

Not sure how my post has anything to do with taking Akers in the 1st.

I had this same argument about taking D Cook in the 1st round a few years back as well. Search it. People told me what a bad move it was because he wasn't supposed to be taken that high. I understand what you're saying, but sometimes you can't play it safe or follow the norm to win. 

I 100% disagree with your "ignoring the facts" comment. Sometimes you go with your gut and you reach to get a guy you believe in.

The point of Akers in the first is this notion of you have to take chances.  You can replace Akers with Miles Sanders or CEH.  Why not take a chance and take 1 of them in the 1st?  You have to take chances to win, after all.  

You say you disagree with my comment about ignoring the facts.  But then you say you have to "trust your gut."  Your gut doesn't take into consideration the facts.  

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I'll have zero shares of Javonte Williams in the 2nd.  You can have all of them.

 

[barackdhouse]

Sooo his ADP has been falling steady ever since early May. He was going in the late 1st early 2nd and now he can be had in the 3rd. The Gordon re-signing has pushed him down and down. 

So although some folks might think he is too expensive, keep in mind he gets cheaper every day. But put me in the camp that says he gets something like 60%. 3rd 4th round is probably a discount. Broncos are going to have to score a lot of TDs to keep pace with Chargers Raiders and Chiefs (wk 14 & 17) and Javonte has as much or more upside than anyone else at his ADP. 

Part of this is a matter of exposure. I want to make sure I have some of him in my redraft and BB portfolio. 

 

[joey]

Sooo his ADP has been falling steady ever since early May. He was going in the late 1st early 2nd and now he can be had in the 3rd. The Gordon re-signing has pushed him down and down. 

So although some folks might think he is too expensive, keep in mind he gets cheaper every day. But put me in the camp that says he gets something like 60%. 3rd 4th round is probably a discount. Broncos are going to have to score a lot of TDs to keep pace with Chargers Raiders and Chiefs (wk 14 & 17) and Javonte has as much or more upside than anyone else at his ADP. 

Part of this is a matter of exposure. I want to make sure I have some of him in my redraft and BB portfolio. 

Yeah, if I have the 1 or 2 slot in redraft, I’d gladly go RB/WR/Williams  

 

[rockaction]

I just offered a 1st, 3rd, and Brandon Aiyuk for him in one dynasty league

KeepTradeCut calls that more than fair if it's a mid-first. I tend to agree with you, though, that it might not get done for that price. 2 2023 1sts plus Aiyuk plus a 2nd is way beyond it, though. You shouldn't have to offer that. Even for Williams, that's a bit of thievery, in my estimation. He's not worth that. 

I also think Aiyuk is a more significant piece than most people think. 

 

[JohnnyU]

KeepTradeCut calls that more than fair if it's a mid-first. I tend to agree with you, though, that it might not get done for that price. 2 2023 1sts plus Aiyuk plus a 2nd is way beyond it, though. You shouldn't have to offer that. Even for Williams, that's a bit of thievery, in my estimation. He's not worth that. 

I also think Aiyuk is a more significant piece than most people think. 

I wouldn't give up Williams for a 1st, 3rd, and Aiyuk.

 

[Payne]

The point of Akers in the first is this notion of you have to take chances.  You can replace Akers with Miles Sanders or CEH.  Why not take a chance and take 1 of them in the 1st?  You have to take chances to win, after all.  

You say you disagree with my comment about ignoring the facts.  But then you say you have to "trust your gut."  Your gut doesn't take into consideration the facts.  

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I'll have zero shares of Javonte Williams in the 2nd.  You can have all of them.

I wouldn't take Akers, Sanders or CEH because I do not believe in them. Sometimes you need to just grab the guys you want. Now I am not saying grab Cousins in the 1st round because you think he may break out. Obviously that is not making use of value. But passing on Williams in the early 2nd, when you love him and know he won't be there when it's your pick again, is absolutely fine to do. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The point of Akers in the first is this notion of you have to take chances.  You can replace Akers with Miles Sanders or CEH.  Why not take a chance and take 1 of them in the 1st?  You have to take chances to win, after all.  

You say you disagree with my comment about ignoring the facts.  But then you say you have to "trust your gut."  Your gut doesn't take into consideration the facts.  

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I'll have zero shares of Javonte Williams in the 2nd.  You can have all of them.

You're talking about ridiculous draft reaches (based on ADP) which isn't comparable to taking a guy in Round 2 that has a late 2nd/early 3rd ADP - so not sure what your point really is.

As far as "taking chances", upside is part of the draft process. If I felt strongly about Williams finishing as a Top 5 RB and I "reach" for him at 2.10, when I could possibly and get him at 3.04 - I don't have a problem with that. Basically you have to get your picks right not completely worry about "draft value". That's a lot different than taking Cam Akers in Round 1, when his ADP is late Round 3 (not sure what it really is currently).

 

[jm192]

You're talking about ridiculous draft reaches (based on ADP) which isn't comparable to taking a guy in Round 2 that has a late 2nd/early 3rd ADP - so not sure what your point really is.

As far as "taking chances", upside is part of the draft process. If I felt strongly about Williams finishing as a Top 5 RB and I "reach" for him at 2.10, when I could possibly and get him at 3.04 - I don't have a problem with that. Basically you have to get your picks right not completely worry about "draft value". That's a lot different than taking Cam Akers in Round 1, when his ADP is late Round 3 (not sure what it really is currently).

It was in response to “you gotta take chances to win.”

I’m proving no one just “takes chances” for the heck of it.  There’s a limit.  

You consider things, like workload, like ADP, like perceived upside.  Your reason for taking a guy can’t be “Well you gotta take chances to win, so here we go.”

 

[menobrown]

Broncos are going to have to score a lot of TDs to keep pace with Chargers Raiders and Chiefs (wk 14 & 17) and Javonte has as much or more upside than anyone else at his ADP. 

Part of this is a matter of exposure. I want to make sure I have some of him in my redraft and BB portfolio. 

The schedule and his ability is what gives him immense upside the last few weeks and the bolded is basically a must to me when you are doing multiple teams in national tournament type contests.

We've seen players the past few years where you either had them or had no real viable shot those last few weeks in those kind of tournaments. You can't cover all of your bases and not trying to but some players you just don't want to be shut out on and he's one of them.