RB Javonte Williams, DEN (1 Viewer)

[3nOut]

I think Javonte's ADP is a direct result of the backs drafted right after him:

Chubb
A. Jones
Fournette
Barkley
Montgomery
Conner

I'm a Chubb guy, I think he's the best back in the league, but QB questions, and a definite RBBC lowers his ceiling. The rest of these guys don't have the UP arrow on their career like Javonte does.  

So if you took a WR in round 1 or HAVE to go RB/RB, I can see why he goes there. But still probably too early.

I'll take a WR there, and then get me some Etienne, Jacobs, Gibson, or Dobbins later.  

I pretty much agree with this grouping but I think Chubb and A. Jones are in a tier above the others and will be taken just a bit earlier. Of the remaining five, my choice would be

Barkley, Javonte, Fournette, Montgomery, then Connor.

I might even put Connor in a tier below and select a few others ahead of him.

 

[Payne]

It was in response to “you gotta take chances to win.”

I’m proving no one just “takes chances” for the heck of it.  There’s a limit.  

You consider things, like workload, like ADP, like perceived upside.  Your reason for taking a guy can’t be “Well you gotta take chances to win, so here we go.”

You missed my point but I think you understand it now.

 

[travdogg]

I pretty much agree with this grouping but I think Chubb and A. Jones are in a tier above the others and will be taken just a bit earlier. Of the remaining five, my choice would be

Barkley, Javonte, Fournette, Montgomery, then Connor.

I might even put Connor in a tier below and select a few others ahead of him.

I'd put Javonte in with Chubb and Jones.

Chubb>Williams/Jones> Fournette/Barkley>Montgomery/Conner for me. 

 

[jwsbowler]

trying to follow here... so, based on what I am seeing, would anyone trade Swift for Williams straight up?

 

[joey]

trying to follow here... so, based on what I am seeing, would anyone trade Swift for Williams straight up?

Yes. 

 

[jwsbowler]

Yes. 

Swift has been valued high, but just seems to not be worth that value.  Thanks...  was thinking Williams or Mixon.

 

[Shawnky]

trying to follow here... so, based on what I am seeing, would anyone trade Swift for Williams straight up?

I’d rather have Swift in redraft, but I couldn’t accept yes quick enough in dynasty. 

 

[joey]

I’d rather have Swift in redraft, but I couldn’t accept yes quick enough in dynasty. 

Oh yeah. Was assuming dynasty when I said “yes”. 

 

[Crippler]

I had chance to add Williams and Jamal Adams.

instead I ended up with Breece Hall, Troy Anderson and late 2023 2nd and happy with the additions I got instead

 

[rockaction]

I had chance to add Williams and Jamal Adams.

instead I ended up with Breece Hall, Troy Anderson and late 2023 2nd and happy with the additions I got instead

That's a big trade. I traded Williams, AJ Brown, and Chase Young for Breece Hall, DK Metcalf, and Courtland Sutton. 

I'd say both of our deals are about a wash, really. Throwing in Chase Young instead of D.J. Chark was a huge bet on Chark and very telling about our DE scoring and what I thought of Young in his first two years. 

 

[jwsbowler]

would people rather have Williams or Mixon in dynasty league.  

 

[rockaction]

would people rather have Williams or Mixon in dynasty league.  

That's tough. Planning on winning now? 

I'd go Williams regardless, as would most, but his redraft/dyansty ADP is out of whack and Mixon is a sweet alternative. 

 

[jwsbowler]

That's tough. Planning on winning now? 

I'd go Williams regardless, as would most, but his redraft/dyansty ADP is out of whack and Mixon is a sweet alternative. 

thanks Rockaction...  as you saw in the trade thread, Mixon was the player was received in the trade with Swift.  I agree that Williams value and ADP are a bit out there, but would have been okay with it as he is a bit younger.  

 

[Skanker]

Looking forward to many, many touchdowns!

 

[rockaction]

Looking forward to many, many touchdowns!

Your handle and avatar! WTF? 

The Selecter and the Shrooms?

 

[Skanker]

Your handle and avatar! WTF? 

The Selecter and the Shrooms?

You know it!

 

[steelcityman]

would people rather have Williams or Mixon in dynasty league.  

Williams, he hasnt reached his ultimate potential.   I think Mixon has.   Now that DEN has a QB, the offense, as a whole should put up much better numbers.   He might share some time with Mel, but still get a lot more yards and scores.

 

[JohnnyU]

Williams, he hasnt reached his ultimate potential.   I think Mixon has.   Now that DEN has a QB, the offense, as a whole should put up much better numbers.   He might share some time with Mel, but still get a lot more yards and scores.

Mixon is a good sell now candidate IMO.

 

[neal cassady]

Mixon is a good sell now candidate IMO.

This.  I ironically traded Mixon for Williams last night in 12 team dynasty IDP league.  Williams is almost 4 years younger.  I’ve had Mixon since he entered the league, and other than last year, he’s under achieved a bit.  Felt like a good time to move him.  May take a short term hit, but it’s not out of the question that Williams out performs Mixon beginning this season.

 

[jwsbowler]

Williams, he hasnt reached his ultimate potential.   I think Mixon has.   Now that DEN has a QB, the offense, as a whole should put up much better numbers.   He might share some time with Mel, but still get a lot more yards and scores.

I am in win mode now.  Never missed a playoff in 20 years in this dynasty league that I am in.  As of my projections, I have Mixon outscoring Williams by an average of 2 points a game...subject to changing.  Thus I had no problem trading Swift away for Mixon, and had the offer out for Williams.  The Mixon owner accepted quicker.  2 year window is what I look at (took some of Gally's advice on this a few years back).  Williams could end up being similar to Swift, valued high, but not reaching it.

Our league does contract style salary caps.  Thus, every 2 to 3 years, players get traded around.    

 

[Faust]

The Athletic's Nick Kosmider believes running back screens could be an important part of the Broncos offense in 2022. 

Kosmider suggested a Russell Wilson-centric Denver offense would include plenty of downfield shots and quite a few running back screens as defenses play deep to protect against Wilson's potent rainbow ball. In the first half of the 2020 season, Seattle's league-leading offense targeted running backs far more often than they had in previous seasons -- or in the down-bad second half of 2020. Chris Carson logged 24 targets in the first five games of 2020. “We’re pretty much wide receivers and running backs this year,” Javonte Williams recently said. “We have to learn all the different (route) concepts.” Pass-catching duties would probably be split between Williams and Melvin Gordon, both more-than-capable pass catchers. It would make sense for the Broncos to pepper backs with short targets since Wilson has long struggled with passes to the intermediate part of the field. NBC Sports EDGE's Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter talked about the fantasy implications of a Russ-based Denver offense on a recent episode of A Good Football Show. 
 

RELATED: 

Melvin Gordon

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Jul 18, 2022, 9:46 AM ET

 

[Faust]

Broncos OC Justin Outten said Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon will be on a "pitch count" throughout the season.​

It's another dagger to those drafting Williams as a surefire RB1 at the top of fantasy drafts. Signs continue to point to the Broncos wanting to split duties between the sophomore and veteran Gordon, who was re-signed to a one-year deal deep into free agency. Williams can still get to top-12 status among fantasy backs, but he's going to have to do it with big plays and touchdowns, something he's capable of, though Gordon will be in the way. Outten and new coach Nathaniel Hackett came from a Green Bay offense where Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon pretty much split work right down the middle in an effort to keep both fresh.
RELATED:

• Melvin Gordon

SOURCE: Zac Stevens on Twitter
Aug 8, 2022, 5:19 PM ET

 

[greenmountaingoat]

How are folks interpreting "pitch count" though? It's certainly not a green light to 29 touches and a top 5 finish. Does this mean a 50/50 split again or is this "20 touches max" and within that, could be 15/5 Javonte and 10/4 Melvin.

 

[fightingillini]

would people rather have Williams or Mixon in dynasty league.

Williams. Much younger.

 

[steelcityman]

A pitch count during the season is the dumbest thing I heard today. Why would you limit your offense? If either one of those are hot, you are going to sit them cause they got too many carries? Like taking a pitcher with a no hitter going out in the 7th inning? Stupid.

 

[jm192]

"Pitch count" just doesn't give me the warm fuzzies when looking at Williams.
It does make me think we're looking at a split backfield again.

 

[TripItUp]

Zero incentive for the Broncos to run Javonte into the ground when

A) Gordon is still very serviceable and even above average

B) the Broncos have playoff aspirations

 

[Chaka]

Zero incentive for the Broncos to run Javonte into the ground when

A) Gordon is still very serviceable and even above average

B) the Broncos have playoff aspirations

Gordon is more than serviceable, he was every bit equal too, if not a hair better than Javonte last season.

I see nothing in Hackett's resume to suggest we should expect anything different than another 50:50 split this season.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Zero incentive for the Broncos to run Javonte into the ground when

A) Gordon is still very serviceable and even above average

B) the Broncos have playoff aspirations

C) They have a functioning QB

 

[sheerterror]

This feels like an early career Derrick Henry situation. Maybe the biggest variance between dynasty and redraft value for a player that I can think of in a while.

 

[Ilov80s]

A lot of hype for Williams and much of it deserved but remember even in college he was always part of a 1-2 punch.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

NFL World Reacts To The Melvin Gordon Injury News
On Wednesday afternoon, the football world learned that Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon was dealing with an injury.

According to head coach Nathaniel Hackett, Gordon suffered a foot injury. He said the team was managing the situation, but the longtime NFL running back wasn't on the practice field today.

While fans are feeling bad for Gordon, they're excited to see what second-year running back Javonte Williams can do with the extra carries.

"Hope Melvin Gordon is OK. Here comes the Javonte Williams hype now," reporter Jamey Eisenberg said.

"Any kind of missed playing time for Melvin means Javonte has every and any opportunity to show the new coaching staff he should be their every down back," another fan said...

 

[TampaMike19]

I'd take him ahead of Kamara if Gordon is missing some games.

 

[Faust]

JAVONTE WILLIAMS RB, DENVER BRONCOS

Speaking at Wednesday's practice, Melvin Gordon said "they want Javonte [Williams] to be the guy."​

It's a clear sign Williams is the starter in the Broncos' backfield, but Gordon isn't giving up the fight on his end, saying he's going to make every carry count. Williams' path to RB1 numbers hangs on him getting 65-plus percent of the touches out of Denver's backfield. As for Gordon, he said he was dealing with a bruised foot last week and is fine now.
RELATED:

• Melvin Gordon

SOURCE: Zac Stevens on Twitter
Aug 17, 2022, 2:10 PM ET

 

[joey]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

 

[Chaka]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

He didn't say "Javonte will be the guy..." He said "They want Javonte to be the guy..."

There is a rather large distinction between the two, because is necessarily means that Javonte is not yet the guy.

 

[Stoneworker]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

He didn't say "Javonte will be the guy..." He said "They want Javonte to be the guy..."

There is a rather large distinction between the two, because is necessarily means that Javonte is not yet the guy.

Agreed. The tweet from Zac Stevens was also misleading because it was woefully incomplete and without context. Here is the full quote. It's really much ado about nothing.

To be honest, I think they kind of have a plan of what they want," Gordon said Wednesday. "As far as the rotation goes, I really don't know. I think they want 'Vonte [Javonte Williams] probably to be the guy. He'll take the first series, and then the second series with the [starters], I'll take [it]. Sometimes we switch, but you kind of know what [the rotation] is if you've been out here. But I don't know how they're going to do the rotation.

Broncos Notebook: As Melvin Gordon III aims to prove he deserves major role, his focus is on winning a Super Bowl

Plus, HC Nathaniel Hackett explains where Billy Turner will work along the offensive line.

www.denverbroncos.com

 

[joey]

Fair enough. But the writing is on the wall and if the 1B running back even hints at it out loud, it means more to me than just us chumps one this message board speculating.

in other words: choo freakin choo!!!!

 

[facook]

Fair enough. But the writing is on the wall and if the 1B running back even hints at it out loud, it means more to me than just us chumps one this message board speculating.

in other words: choo freakin choo!!!!

Confirmation bias is a beautiful thing.

 

[Payne]

Javonte is the better back
They brought back Gordon cheap
It appears they want Javonte to be the lead
Javonte can be a RB1 on this team even after giving Gordon some carries

I'm on board

 

[Chaka]

I know Javonte is the future but does anyone want to acknowledge that Gordon was still the better back last season, if only marginally?

Hackett had two good backs last year and they received almost identical opportunities.

Redrafters should build their boards off the expectation of somewhere between a repeat of last season in Denver and last season in Green Bay.

I love Javonte but I think he's going to be over priced by the time my draft rolls around.

 

[Deamon]

I know Javonte is the future but does anyone want to acknowledge that Gordon was still the better back last season, if only marginally?

Hackett had two good backs last year and they received almost identical opportunities.

Redrafters should build their boards off the expectation of somewhere between a repeat of last season in Denver and last season in Green Bay.

I love Javonte but I think he's going to be over priced by the time my draft rolls around.

He prob won't get drafted in your league

 

[Deamon]

I think he's priced appropriately. If Gordon wasn't there, he'd EASILY be going in the first round. Having Gordon around definitely hurts his value, but he's dropped to the very end of the 2nd round because of it. He's going to get touches regardless, and he has top 3 upside if Gordon misses time or just is ineffective.

 

[Blick]

I think Gordon's biggest impact may be at the goal line. I'm a buyer all day at the end of the 2nd, especially in PPR.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

He didn't say "Javonte will be the guy..." He said "They want Javonte to be the guy..."

There is a rather large distinction between the two, because is necessarily means that Javonte is not yet the guy.

Well I think your diving too deeply into the semantics of Melvin Gordon. He’s clearly saying what he thinks the coaching staff’s plan is for the RBs.

 

[satch]

Gordon’s quote is being massively overblown. Admittedly, upoon reading the headline, “They want Vonte to be the guy,” I too thought it significant. However, after hearing the full clip in context, an argument could be made that Gordon reaffirmed Javonte owners fears; this is going to be a “rotation,” claims Gordon, who has “still got the juice.”

We already knew Javonte was “the guy.” We all expected him to be on the plus side of a timeshare with Gordon. The question was, and still remains, what will the split percentage look like? In the clip, Gordon hints at potentially rotating every other series, or something to that effect, which puts the headline in a much different context. Perhaps the 60/40 estimate is reasonable.

Though, also noteworthy was Gordon’s confidence. He clearly doesn’t see Javonte as a threat, simply a talented teammate deserving of his status. Javonte and Gordon make a great one-two punch, and often the two punch is a knockout blow.

 

[Chaka]

I know Javonte is the future but does anyone want to acknowledge that Gordon was still the better back last season, if only marginally?

Hackett had two good backs last year and they received almost identical opportunities.

Redrafters should build their boards off the expectation of somewhere between a repeat of last season in Denver and last season in Green Bay.

I love Javonte but I think he's going to be over priced by the time my draft rolls around.

He prob won't get drafted in your league

I can tell this will never get old.

 

[Chaka]

It’s one thing for us to guess on the splits between Javonte and Gordon, but for Gordon himself to come out and say that Javonte will be the guy…that removes the 5% chance that Javonte was falling to me at the 2/3 turn. :(

He didn't say "Javonte will be the guy..." He said "They want Javonte to be the guy..."

There is a rather large distinction between the two, because is necessarily means that Javonte is not yet the guy.

Well I think your diving too deeply into the semantics of Melvin Gordon. He’s clearly saying what he thinks the coaching staff’s plan is for the RBs.

Javonte will take the first snap in most every game. He is the starter and that makes him Denver's #1 RB.

But I don't think I am playing semantics at all @Stoneworker posted the entire quote above and I think a lot of people are jumping on the out-of-context headline. The full quote pretty clearly suggests a 1a/1b situation similar to last year.

His current draft price isn't outrageous although I would price him as RB14-RB15, around pick 2.12-3.03 not RB13, pick 2.08 (FF Calculator, 12 team PPR). It's a very small distinction.

I'm a big fan of Javonte, I acquired him in an early season trade last year before week 3 and I managed to time inserting him into my lineup perfectly (got his five best starts). But the week over week will he/won't he was frustrating.

IMO every week Gordon is in the lineup, Javonte is not the set-it-&-forget-it RB1/2 he is being drafted as, and that will frustrate a lot of people.

Again, it's a very small point I'm making. So please put away your pitchforks (not directed at you Doc Oc, you've never been a pitchfork guy).

 

[Stoneworker]

Lol. Deja vu all over again. This thread is starting to sound exactly like some of last year's gems...

8/30/21 - Talent wins out, J. Williams will show him the door by halftime of the first game against the Giants.

9/17/21 - this is probably the last week to get him for a reasonable price in trades, his value is going to skyrocket , probably starting this weekend.

9/30/21 - Williams will be the lead dog, it's a matter of time.

10/10/21 - At some point they're gonna have to make the switch.

10/14/21 - Who is starting him this week? I have had him on the bench the last 5 weeks, I think it is finally time.

10/15/21 - This could be the breakout game.

And finally, there is "acceptance"

10/22/21 - I believe everyone deep down knew it was going to be a 50/50 split or worse with Gordon this year. Let's hope next year Gordon isn't on that team.

 

[joey]

Lol. Deja vu all over again. This thread is starting to sound exactly like some of last year's gems...

8/30/21 - Talent wins out, J. Williams will show him the door by halftime of the first game against the Giants.

9/17/21 - this is probably the last week to get him for a reasonable price in trades, his value is going to skyrocket , probably starting this weekend.

9/30/21 - Williams will be the lead dog, it's a matter of time.

10/10/21 - At some point they're gonna have to make the switch.

10/14/21 - Who is starting him this week? I have had him on the bench the last 5 weeks, I think it is finally time.

10/15/21 - This could be the breakout game.

And finally, there is "acceptance"

10/22/21 - I believe everyone deep down knew it was going to be a 50/50 split or worse with Gordon this year. Let's hope next year Gordon isn't on that team.

8/18/22 - I’m taking him at the 2/3 turn as my RB2 if he’s there.