What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Kaleb Johnson, PIT (1 Viewer)

What’s with the pitty-pat feet approaching the POA? I don’t remember seeing that when he was at Iowa. He’s going to need to clean that up or it’s going to be a problem. FWIW I’m high on his career prospects.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid

Amen. We see this every year. Preseason darlings suck in the regular season. Preseason drubs blow up in the regular season. I can't imagine there is any correlation between preseason hype (in either direction) and actual results.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game.
This is what we say when a guy does poorly. "Its just pre season". When he does awesomely, we take it seriously.
 
Pre season stats mean very little and I don't care much with numbers in a meaningless game, but what I do watch is how a player looks, and he didn't look good in his small sample size.

Of course that doesn't mean he won't look better as the weeks go on.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
Good post.

I remember Isaac Guerendo last year being under 3 YPC in preseason and he was just fine when he started for CMC. Breece Hall was 14 carries for 29 yards as a rookie in the preseason.
 
Amen. We see this every year. Preseason darlings suck in the regular season. Preseason drubs blow up in the regular season. I can't imagine there is any correlation between preseason hype (in either direction) and actual results.
Owners need to be vigilant about sourcing their hype. There IS actionable news in the summer. But man, some people will listen to anyone. There's a guy on Twitter https://x.com/jagibbs_23
He's a great follow, and is enthusiastic, and cranks out good content. But lordy, he thinks every player is a steal.

In best ball or redraft, summer news is a big deal. Meaning, if I drafted Kaleb in dynasty, I ain't sweating 1st game looks. But if I have a home league or a best ball draft TONIGHT, am I still drafting based on opinion from May? Am I ranking Skattebo at the same spot in redraft as I might have in May? Donte Thornton?

I have not heard what I have been looking to hear about Kaleb.
 
If there is one thing I put some stock into during preseason it is eye test. It can be deceptive when getting too high on a guy making big plays against soon-to-be Uber drivers, but not as much when those same Ubers make a player look like a carbon copy of Najee Harris. Not writing off Johnson, but he also better not write back.
 
I've never been a Kaleb guy but he didn't look bad to me. He's never been a big burst or cut guy. He looked like the same Kaleb I expected. Found the creases that were there and carried guys forward with good power. The drop wasn't ideal but other than that I saw nothing to worry about. He was finding more room to run until the rest of the starters went out and then he got stuffed for two big losses that made the final stats look worse.
 
I just had an offer of my 2026 2nd and Justice Hill for Kaleb and thought I was going to break my keyboard accepting. I am rebuilding, so my 2nd should be early, but this was a no doubter.

Is Justice Hill that valuable?

I don’t think so, but it is a 24 man roster with deep starting lineup so he has a little flex appeal.

My guess is the team that traded him to me is competing. He already thinks Kaleb is a bust, knows I wouldn't trade my first since I am rebuilding. So my early second plus a flex player is equal to a late first in his head and he drafted him at 1.07 and he doesn't lose much value. This is my guess
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
Good post.

I remember Isaac Guerendo last year being under 3 YPC in preseason and he was just fine when he started for CMC. Breece Hall was 14 carries for 29 yards as a rookie in the preseason.
I remember I liked how Guerendo looked in preseason last year. Guerendo showed burst despite the lack of production. The knocks on Johnson were lack of speed and lack of creativity, and he didn't do anything to prove the naysayers wrong.
 
Last edited:

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top