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RB Kaleb Johnson, PIT (2 Viewers)

What’s with the pitty-pat feet approaching the POA? I don’t remember seeing that when he was at Iowa. He’s going to need to clean that up or it’s going to be a problem. FWIW I’m high on his career prospects.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid

Amen. We see this every year. Preseason darlings suck in the regular season. Preseason drubs blow up in the regular season. I can't imagine there is any correlation between preseason hype (in either direction) and actual results.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game.
This is what we say when a guy does poorly. "Its just pre season". When he does awesomely, we take it seriously.
 
Pre season stats mean very little and I don't care much with numbers in a meaningless game, but what I do watch is how a player looks, and he didn't look good in his small sample size.

Of course that doesn't mean he won't look better as the weeks go on.
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
Good post.

I remember Isaac Guerendo last year being under 3 YPC in preseason and he was just fine when he started for CMC. Breece Hall was 14 carries for 29 yards as a rookie in the preseason.
 
I agree with FarfromHome, but would like to add now is the time to take advantage.
It's what us sharks do buddy. We prey on chum. It why I bumped the Garrett Wilson thread. This time of year I look at players people aren't talking about as the next shiny thing and try to take them. Ha ha
 
Amen. We see this every year. Preseason darlings suck in the regular season. Preseason drubs blow up in the regular season. I can't imagine there is any correlation between preseason hype (in either direction) and actual results.
Owners need to be vigilant about sourcing their hype. There IS actionable news in the summer. But man, some people will listen to anyone. There's a guy on Twitter https://x.com/jagibbs_23
He's a great follow, and is enthusiastic, and cranks out good content. But lordy, he thinks every player is a steal.

In best ball or redraft, summer news is a big deal. Meaning, if I drafted Kaleb in dynasty, I ain't sweating 1st game looks. But if I have a home league or a best ball draft TONIGHT, am I still drafting based on opinion from May? Am I ranking Skattebo at the same spot in redraft as I might have in May? Donte Thornton?

I have not heard what I have been looking to hear about Kaleb.
 
If there is one thing I put some stock into during preseason it is eye test. It can be deceptive when getting too high on a guy making big plays against soon-to-be Uber drivers, but not as much when those same Ubers make a player look like a carbon copy of Najee Harris. Not writing off Johnson, but he also better not write back.
 
I've never been a Kaleb guy but he didn't look bad to me. He's never been a big burst or cut guy. He looked like the same Kaleb I expected. Found the creases that were there and carried guys forward with good power. The drop wasn't ideal but other than that I saw nothing to worry about. He was finding more room to run until the rest of the starters went out and then he got stuffed for two big losses that made the final stats look worse.
 
I just had an offer of my 2026 2nd and Justice Hill for Kaleb and thought I was going to break my keyboard accepting. I am rebuilding, so my 2nd should be early, but this was a no doubter.

Is Justice Hill that valuable?

I don’t think so, but it is a 24 man roster with deep starting lineup so he has a little flex appeal.

My guess is the team that traded him to me is competing. He already thinks Kaleb is a bust, knows I wouldn't trade my first since I am rebuilding. So my early second plus a flex player is equal to a late first in his head and he drafted him at 1.07 and he doesn't lose much value. This is my guess
 
The problem with us fantasy nerds is we put too much value on too little sample size. A decade ago I convinced myself not to move the value needle to much on one preseason game. Now, if a rb comes out and gets two carries and fumbled both, thats different to me. His first ever NFL game he didn't look anything near to what I saw from him from college. I'm still not moving his needle much. He started. Had a good stiff arm. Left the game healthy. Welcome to the league kid
Good post.

I remember Isaac Guerendo last year being under 3 YPC in preseason and he was just fine when he started for CMC. Breece Hall was 14 carries for 29 yards as a rookie in the preseason.
I remember I liked how Guerendo looked in preseason last year. Guerendo showed burst despite the lack of production. The knocks on Johnson were lack of speed and lack of creativity, and he didn't do anything to prove the naysayers wrong.
 
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I fear he's not quite ready.
I hope their response is "let's forcefeed him" and not let's sub him in til he is.
 
They gave him an extended run yesterday to see what he can do, and there were signs of improvement.

Worthy of note is that Gainwell started the game with Mason and the rest of the first team. Warren sat out again, so it appears that Kaleb is the current #3 in the pecking order most likely used to spell Warren from time to time.

Much room for improvement, so it's a wait and see for me. I think his current ADP range is okay, but not sure I would take him ahead of Jaylen in redraft, especially in PPR leagues.
 
Man, I traded up in a dynasty start-up draft to make this dude my RB2. Happy to see improvements but this is not exactly the early reporting I was hoping for. 😬
 
Steelers RB draft picks rarely seem to bust but I haven't seen much from Kaleb Johnson in preseason to move me off my initial impression that he's a player to avoid. If the OL opens up a big lane, he can run through it with some speed and elusiveness, but too often he looks tentative, a little ovewhelmed, and goes down on first contact. He's a rookie - maybe he'll figure it out - but for now it feels like Jaylen Warren is undervalued, perhaps Kenneth Gainwell too.
 
Steelers RB draft picks rarely seem to bust but I haven't seen much from Kaleb Johnson in preseason to move me off my initial impression that he's a player to avoid. If the OL opens up a big lane, he can run through it with some speed and elusiveness, but too often he looks tentative, a little ovewhelmed, and goes down on first contact. He's a rookie - maybe he'll figure it out - but for now it feels like Jaylen Warren is undervalued, perhaps Kenneth Gainwell too.
Warren has looked worse though.

Also Johnson leads the team with 7 forced missed tackles or whatever you call that.

Like others I expect his role to increase as the season goes on. Early on Warren & Gainwell will get much of the usage, but I don’t see them as a particularly high bar to clear.
 
Warren has looked worse though.
He's only carried the ball twice with two receptions. Granted he fumbled on one of those but it hardly seems like much of a body of evidence to base this kind of comment on.
Enough of a sample size that their own beat writer put out and entire article saying Warren might get benched.

 
Warren has looked worse though.
He's only carried the ball twice with two receptions. Granted he fumbled on one of those but it hardly seems like much of a body of evidence to base this kind of comment on.
Enough of a sample size that their own beat writer put out and entire article saying Warren might get benched.

Nothing in that article says he's looked worse or bad. It just says he fumbled and if he keeps fumbling again it could open up the crack that Kaleb needs to get on the field and run away with the job.
 
Warren has looked worse though.
He's only carried the ball twice with two receptions. Granted he fumbled on one of those but it hardly seems like much of a body of evidence to base this kind of comment on.
Enough of a sample size that their own beat writer put out and entire article saying Warren might get benched.

#clickbait
 
Warren has looked worse though.
He's only carried the ball twice with two receptions. Granted he fumbled on one of those but it hardly seems like much of a body of evidence to base this kind of comment on.
Enough of a sample size that their own beat writer put out and entire article saying Warren might get benched.

#clickbait
By their beat writer? :oldunsure:
 
Kaboly? 🤣 He managed to stay awake for pressers lately?

That guy...let's just say when it comes to football he's the best guy you'll find for info on the WWE.

He has relationships with a couple vet players on the team, so when it comes to "locker room gossip" Kaboly's yer guy. When it comes to ball? He doesnt know it.

I'm also pretty sure he made that comment weeks and weeks ago, just generally speaking when asked question about Warren's historical fumbling issues.

Depot guy there is just quoting it like it was a response specific to that preseason game when he fumbled. It wasnt.
 
Kaboly? 🤣 He managed to stay awake for pressers lately?

That guy...let's just say when it comes to football he's the best guy you'll find for info on the WWE.

He has relationships with a couple vet players on the team, so when it comes to "locker room gossip" Kaboly's yer guy. When it comes to ball? He doesnt know it.

I'm also pretty sure he made that comment weeks and weeks ago, just generally speaking when asked question about Warren's historical fumbling issues.

Depot guy there is just quoting it like it was a response specific to that preseason game when he fumbled. It wasnt.
Local knowledge man... there is no expiration date on it.

Thanks :thumbup:
 
I'm also pretty sure he made that comment weeks and weeks ago, just generally speaking when asked question about Warren's historical fumbling issues.
He made it after their last preseason game.

Okay. Mea culpa.

Hes probably been asked about it more than once and given similar responses. Hes on every show on that station different days every week. They start to bleed together.

In this case all he is really saying is "if a guy keeps fumbling could Tomlin bench him? Yeah, tomlin could bench him." and a Steeler Depot writer (not an official beat writer, btw) milked it for an article. Not exactly a hot take that Mike hates turnovers enough to bench a vet.

Until his fumbling costs them games, 2025 is probably going to see Warren as lead dog. Hes got some juice as a runner, hes a really good pass blocker (KJ isnt) and A-a-ron cant move like he used to.
 

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