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RB Trey Sermon, IND (2 Viewers)

rockaction said:
I got it, but the buzzwords "non-zero chance" need to DIAF. 
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Yeah. It was my favorite kind of phrase in high school english: a litote. 

Deliberately phrasing in the negative to call attention to the positive statement you're making. Makes you think you're being clever (a specialty of mine) but really you're just being obnoxious (see, people do get wiser as they age!). 

 
Instinctive said:
Yeah. It was my favorite kind of phrase in high school english: a litote. 

Deliberately phrasing in the negative to call attention to the positive statement you're making. Makes you think you're being clever (a specialty of mine) but really you're just being obnoxious (see, people do get wiser as they age!). 
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Charles M. Schultz specialized in it, and from Linus, it's cool. When used seriously and away from any context like Peanuts brings, it loses its impact and effectiveness. 

 
So here's my summary take:

All pre-season, people were trying to figure out SF's backfield.  The team CAN run the ball, but guessing who would do it is like guessing what Belichick would do a few years ago with his backfield any given week.  People at least consensus agreed that Mostert was fragile but has put up really good numbers when healthy.  Hasty and Mitchell are just guys.  Sermon has talent, no experience, and was a 3rd round draft pick - not an insignificant pick here folks.  

Week 1 Sermon is a healthy scratch - this is far from unheard of for rookie RB's.  Blue chip RB's often don't play on special teams in college for fear of getting hurt, so they don't have the technical skills to play in the NFL.  They often haven't developed their blocking skills to the NFL level yet either.  I forget who it was, but a year or two ago, there was this exact situation on another team.  Guy was a rookie, and was a scratch because he didn't play special teams and couldn't block well.  Also - in week 1, Mostert gets hurt.  The oracle was right.  He's fragile.

Week 2 Sermon is active.  With Mostert out, his role gets elevated.  In my opinion, were it not for his injury, he'd be well on his way to a lead back role on running downs.  The other guys still get action - maybe they're better blockers (don't honestly know), and they still play a special teams role...but the team now needs a guy to run the rock.  You don't draft Sermon in the 3rd to sit him.  Sermon takes a big nasty ILLEGAL hit and is out.  How do you fault the guy for that??

So now here we are in Week 3.  What's permanent?  Mostert is out for the year.  Neither Hasty or Mitchell put up massive numbers against a middle-of-the-pack Philly defense.

So honestly - can anyone explain why Sermon isn't high on an RB radar that in any good league is devoid of talent outside of the top 10 or so guys?  He's rapidly on his way back from a concussion due to a hit that wasn't his fault.  The starting RB (the guy that kept Sermon from going high in drafts to begin with) is hurt and done for the year.  The other 2 RB's are just guys.  Sermon is going to get his shot.  If he lives up to his pedigree and draft pick, he'll win this job outright.  At WORST, that would put him around RB 20-25, which is where Mostert went...but I'd argue much higher because Mostert was tempered by knowing that Sermon was around and Mostert is fragile.  Now, it's just Sermon.  No Mostert - to me, that would've warranted at least a mid-teens RB grade for fantasy due to opportunity alone.  Would we even be having the conversation re. whether to add Josh Jacobs or David Montgomery if they were available in your league?

If he's available, Sermon is probably the best chance at a "league winner" at RB out there right now, maybe barring Chubba depending on McCaffrey's status - but at least we KNOW Mostert is done for the year.

ETA for context: I am a Sermon owner in one league.  I did not draft him.  He was dropped after week 1 and I grabbed him then.  I'd grab him in my other league if the owner drops him.

 
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Fat Nick said:
So here's my summary take:

All pre-season, people were trying to figure out SF's backfield.  The team CAN run the ball, but guessing who would do it is like guessing what Belichick would do a few years ago with his backfield any given week.  People at least consensus agreed that Mostert was fragile but has put up really good numbers when healthy.  Hasty and Mitchell are just guys.  Sermon has talent, no experience, and was a 3rd round draft pick - not an insignificant pick here folks.  

Week 1 Sermon is a healthy scratch - this is far from unheard of for rookie RB's.  Blue chip RB's often don't play on special teams in college for fear of getting hurt, so they don't have the technical skills to play in the NFL.  They often haven't developed their blocking skills to the NFL level yet either.  I forget who it was, but a year or two ago, there was this exact situation on another team.  Guy was a rookie, and was a scratch because he didn't play special teams and couldn't block well.  Also - in week 1, Mostert gets hurt.  The oracle was right.  He's fragile.

Week 2 Sermon is active.  With Mostert out, his role gets elevated.  In my opinion, were it not for his injury, he'd be well on his way to a lead back role on running downs.  The other guys still get action - maybe they're better blockers (don't honestly know), and they still play a special teams role...but the team now needs a guy to run the rock.  You don't draft Sermon in the 3rd to sit him.  Sermon takes a big nasty ILLEGAL hit and is out.  How do you fault the guy for that??

So now here we are in Week 3.  What's permanent?  Mostert is out for the year.  Neither Hasty or Mitchell put up massive numbers against a middle-of-the-pack Philly defense.

So honestly - can anyone explain why Sermon isn't high on an RB radar that in any good league is devoid of talent outside of the top 10 or so guys?  He's rapidly on his way back from a concussion due to a hit that wasn't his fault.  The starting RB (the guy that kept Sermon from going high in drafts to begin with) is hurt and done for the year.  The other 2 RB's are just guys.  Sermon is going to get his shot.  If he lives up to his pedigree and draft pick, he'll win this job outright.  At WORST, that would put him around RB 20-25, which is where Mostert went...but I'd argue much higher because Mostert was tempered by knowing that Sermon was around and Mostert is fragile.  Now, it's just Sermon.  No Mostert - to me, that would've warranted at least a mid-teens RB grade for fantasy due to opportunity alone.  Would we even be having the conversation re. whether to add Josh Jacobs or David Montgomery if they were available in your league?

If he's available, Sermon is probably the best chance at a "league winner" at RB out there right now, maybe barring Chubba depending on McCaffrey's status - but at least we KNOW Mostert is done for the year.
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Your week 2 analysis of him being in an elevated role and well on his way to lead back running downs seems flawed to me. He didn’t touch the ball till Mitchell got injured. He may not have had a carry of it wasn’t for that. He had 1 carry for 8 yards. We know nothing.

I own Sermon everywhere and want him to succeed, but the idea that his week 2 showed us anything seems silly to me. Other than maybe the coaches weren’t planning on using him and if Mitchell is healthy or gets healthy, I’d be concerned again.

 
Fat Nick said:
So here's my summary take:

All pre-season, people were trying to figure out SF's backfield.  The team CAN run the ball, but guessing who would do it is like guessing what Belichick would do a few years ago with his backfield any given week.  People at least consensus agreed that Mostert was fragile but has put up really good numbers when healthy.  Hasty and Mitchell are just guys.  Sermon has talent, no experience, and was a 3rd round draft pick - not an insignificant pick here folks.  

Week 1 Sermon is a healthy scratch - this is far from unheard of for rookie RB's.  Blue chip RB's often don't play on special teams in college for fear of getting hurt, so they don't have the technical skills to play in the NFL.  They often haven't developed their blocking skills to the NFL level yet either.  I forget who it was, but a year or two ago, there was this exact situation on another team.  Guy was a rookie, and was a scratch because he didn't play special teams and couldn't block well.  Also - in week 1, Mostert gets hurt.  The oracle was right.  He's fragile.

Week 2 Sermon is active.  With Mostert out, his role gets elevated.  In my opinion, were it not for his injury, he'd be well on his way to a lead back role on running downs.  The other guys still get action - maybe they're better blockers (don't honestly know), and they still play a special teams role...but the team now needs a guy to run the rock.  You don't draft Sermon in the 3rd to sit him.  Sermon takes a big nasty ILLEGAL hit and is out.  How do you fault the guy for that??

So now here we are in Week 3.  What's permanent?  Mostert is out for the year.  Neither Hasty or Mitchell put up massive numbers against a middle-of-the-pack Philly defense.

So honestly - can anyone explain why Sermon isn't high on an RB radar that in any good league is devoid of talent outside of the top 10 or so guys?  He's rapidly on his way back from a concussion due to a hit that wasn't his fault.  The starting RB (the guy that kept Sermon from going high in drafts to begin with) is hurt and done for the year.  The other 2 RB's are just guys.  Sermon is going to get his shot.  If he lives up to his pedigree and draft pick, he'll win this job outright.  At WORST, that would put him around RB 20-25, which is where Mostert went...but I'd argue much higher because Mostert was tempered by knowing that Sermon was around and Mostert is fragile.  Now, it's just Sermon.  No Mostert - to me, that would've warranted at least a mid-teens RB grade for fantasy due to opportunity alone.  Would we even be having the conversation re. whether to add Josh Jacobs or David Montgomery if they were available in your league?
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I think you may be underestimating Mitchell's role and talent level a bit.

I am a Sermon owner and have all the optimism possible for his future but even when healthy and available he didn't see any action against Philly until 4:30 left in the fourth quarter. Sermon got his shot only after the Niners went up by two scores. Up to that point it was Mitchell followed by Hasty.

That says a lot. That says Shanahan lacks a certain confidence in Sermon and, at the very least considers Mitchell more reliable. The ability to run the ball well doesn't mean much if.you cannot be counted in to fulfill all the assignments required at the position. Not just blocking but following the play to the right gap etc. Just ask any Christine Michael owner.

Mitchell hasn't practiced this week so this could be Sermon's big chance (assuming he is even cleared to play) but the Niners have been churning the wire looking for RBs. Don't discount the fact they signed this Patrick guy to the active roster. They kicked the tires on multiple free agents and still have Kerryon Johnson & Chris Thompson on their PS.

If Shanahan does not have confidence in Sermon's ability to do everything required then don't be surprised if a seeming scrub that knows how to the full job gets the lead role.

 
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eveyone read Waldman’s latest on the entire SF RB situation?

includes practice squad players and guys who haven’t even signed yet

 
BobbyLayne said:
eveyone read Waldman’s latest on the entire SF RB situation?

includes practice squad players and guys who haven’t even signed yet
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I did, @jdoggydogg mentioned it upthread, it's a great write up but I didn't walk away thinking Sermon is a must add/hold.

I still have hope for him this season and am certainly not dropping him as there is no one on the wire who looks shinier ATM (says more about the dearth of options on my wire than anything).

However I did hedge my bet on Sermon by trading Claypool low for Javonte Williams yesterday (12 team, 16 spot, super-flex redraft).

I probably wouldn't have done that if Sermon had gotten his one carry last week in the first quarter, or even at any point while it was a one score game.

Sermon may run the ball well but there is clearly something about him that Shanahan doesn't trust yet. Don't discount that fact.

 
Chaka said:
I did, @jdoggydogg mentioned it upthread, it's a great write up but I didn't walk away thinking Sermon is a must add/hold.

I still have hope for him this season and am certainly not dropping him as there is no one on the wire who looks shinier ATM (says more about the dearth of options on my wire than anything).

However I did hedge my bet on Sermon by trading Claypool low for Javonte Williams yesterday (12 team, 16 spot, super-flex redraft).

I probably wouldn't have done that if Sermon had gotten his one carry last week in the first quarter, or even at any point while it was a one score game.

Sermon may run the ball well but there is clearly something about him that Shanahan doesn't trust yet. Don't discount that fact.
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I have Javonte as my RB3 (Najee, Swift)

was thinking of offering Carter for him straight up (full PPR) - guys has good starters but his RB3 is Hines (full PPR, 12 team)

Carter is like my RB 5-6 but had a good stat line last week

:shrug:

 
anyway, I’m still bullish on Sermon

Mitchell has straight line and can gain the edge, but no ability to make guys miss. one cut go is good, but he’s only gonna get what is there. won’t create additional yards & he ain’t gonna bust through tackles (unless it’s Detroit arm tacklers lol)

 
BobbyLayne said:
I have Javonte as my RB3 (Najee, Swift)

was thinking of offering Carter for him straight up (full PPR) - guys has good starters but his RB3 is Hines (full PPR, 12 team)

Carter is like my RB 5-6 but had a good stat line last week

:shrug:
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Dynast, keeper or redraft?

I'm confused is Javonte on your roster or Carter or both?

Are you offering Carter for Claypool straight up? I might have considered that but only if my deal for Javonte fell through. Even then...not sure.

Carter arguably outplayed Javonte at NC but not by much (if at all). Their combine numbers are within a hairs breadth of each other too. I also think Javonte has a better frame for the rigors of the NFL, but that's just my opinion.

I like the Denver offense/defense worlds more than the Jets in 2021.

Beyond that may be a different story but Javonte is the presumptive heir apparent going into next season just like Carter.

 
Chaka said:
Dynast, keeper or redraft?

I'm confused is Javonte on your roster or Carter or both?

Are you offering Carter for Claypool straight up? I might have considered that but only if my deal for Javonte fell through. Even then...not sure.

Carter arguably outplayed Javonte at NC but not by much (if at all). Their combine numbers are within a hairs breadth of each other too. I also think Javonte has a better frame for the rigors of the NFL, but that's just my opinion.

I like the Denver offense/defense worlds more than the Jets in 2021.

Beyond that may be a different story but Javonte is the presumptive heir apparent going into next season just like Carter.
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redraft

both

no - I don’t know where you got Claypool from I didn’t say that

It is the Trey Sermon thread. A few posts up, I said I was trying to acquire Sermon.

agreed for this year Javonte is in a better situation. I actually have no interest in owning Carter this year, next year, at anytime in the future. he fell in the draft, it was a decent value, figured I might be able to trade him later.

Anyways just trying to get a hold of Sermon in redraft - totally my fault for poorly wording what I was trying to say.

 
ELIJAH MITCHELLRB, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers general manager John Lynch said RB Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is "very questionable" for Week 3. 

Mitchell is looking iffy, at best, for the Niners' Week 3 date with the Packers. Mitchell, after missing some of the team's Week 2 game with a shoulder issue, did not practice Wednesday and Thursday. The San Jose Mercury News' Cam Inman said Trey Sermon -- who suffered a concussion in Week 2 -- "looks like he's going to have opportunities" if he's cleared to face the Packers on Monday night. This week the team signed ex-XFL RB Jacques Patrick, who Lynch jokingly compared to John Riggins. Patrick could lead the Niners backfield if Sermon and Mitchell are inactive this week. San Francisco's backfield is a complete mess and will give fantasy managers heartburn throughout the weekend. Anyone rostering a Niners running back needs to have a backup plan for Monday night. 
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BobbyLayne said:
redraft

both

no - I don’t know where you got Claypool from I didn’t say that

It is the Trey Sermon thread. A few posts up, I said I was trying to acquire Sermon.

agreed for this year Javonte is in a better situation. I actually have no interest in owning Carter this year, next year, at anytime in the future. he fell in the draft, it was a decent value, figured I might be able to trade him later.

Anyways just trying to get a hold of Sermon in redraft - totally my fault for poorly wording what I was trying to say.
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Yeah, it was only because you responded to my post which included me mentioning I hedged my Sermon bet by acquiring Javonte for Claypool.

I wouldn't take Carter for Sermon in any format bright now. Although I'm a few weeks...?

 
BobbyLayne said:
you do you

heck I’m thinking about offering Michael Carter straight up (PPR, redraft)

how do value a guy with the same number of brain injuries as he has lifetime carries, & an uncertain future role

:shrug:
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No, I meant I big 8% and someone else bid 30%, so I'm totally ok with that lol

 
49ers' Trey Sermon: Progressing, remains in protocol

(13 mins ago) GM John Lync said Sermon (concussion) is trending in the right direction after practicing in a limited fashion Wednesday and Thursday, though the running back remains in the concussion protocol, David Lombardi of The Athletic reports.

Sermon suffered the concussion during the Week 2 win over the Eagles, but his quick return to practice indicates that he's advancing through the necessary protocols. If cleared to play, the rookie third-round pick could be in line for an increased role Sunday against the Packers since Elijah Mitchell's status is in question due to a shoulder injury. Sermon was a healthy scratch in the season opener, but opportunities have quickly been presented with Raheem Mostert (knee) out for the season and JaMychal Hasty (ankle) facing a multi-week absence.

 
Chaka said:
I wouldn't take Carter for Sermon in any format bright now. Although I'm a few weeks...?
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predraft, sure - no comparison 

now? big range of outcomes 

well OK that’s what I’m hoping he will think as he panics and hits the accept button

 
I posted this in the XFL kid's thread but it's more relevant here. If active this week, we will find out a lot about Shanny's trust issues with Sermon for sure. It's one thing for Shanny to have more trust in the in-house options who have been with the team (Hasty, Mitchell). But how much trust could he possibly have in this XFL kid he just signed off the street? At this point the 49ers options are a bunch of has beens or never were’s. If Shanny has more trust in these guys off the street or recently signed to their practice squad over a RB who has at least been with them in the system since OTAs, the outlook for Sermon could be more dire than we think.

 
massraider said:
It's nice to grab one of these guys, in past years I've missed out on Patriot running backs, so this is a great consolation prize. 
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This is where I am, wish I could go back to Draft and taking Trey Sermon in too many leagues. 

In the end it's possible he might be one of the RBs called upon to try and move the football and occasionally one of these RBs has a wicked wild Sunday and we all get the anointing oils out and then suddenly we don't see that same RB for a 2-3 weeks, maybe it's an injury or they wanted to rotate other backs, but the pot of gold at the end of this rainbow seems pretty empty right now. 

I don't see any of them being so good that we never hear a word about any of the other RBs on the roster behind him...all week its an endless number of articles on the internet trying to push one or the other to the front but so far its mostly hot air. Even the SF RBs that have had some success, nobody typically started them that morning and they weren't being billed as the starter. 

You can't bank on anything at RB in SF right now, maybe in the future but not right now. 

 
Chaka said:
I think you may be underestimating Mitchell's role and talent level a bit.

I am a Sermon owner and have all the optimism possible for his future but even when healthy and available he didn't see any action against Philly until 4:30 left in the fourth quarter. Sermon got his shot only after the Niners went up by two scores. Up to that point it was Mitchell followed by Hasty.

That says a lot. That says Shanahan lacks a certain confidence in Sermon and, at the very least considers Mitchell more reliable. The ability to run the ball well doesn't mean much if.you cannot be counted in to fulfill all the assignments required at the position. Not just blocking but following the play to the right gap etc. Just ask any Christine Michael owner.

Mitchell hasn't practiced this week so this could be Sermon's big chance (assuming he is even cleared to play) but the Niners have been churning the wire looking for RBs. Don't discount the fact they signed this Patrick guy to the active roster. They kicked the tires on multiple free agents and still have Kerryon Johnson & Chris Thompson on their PS.

If Shanahan does not have confidence in Sermon's ability to do everything required then don't be surprised if a seeming scrub that knows how to the full job gets the lead role.
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Great comparison with Christine Michael.  I think the one difference is Michael was at that point 2-3 years into his career.  He had been in the league in a few systems and STILL couldn't be relied upon to pick up blitzing LB's or know the right gaps.  I'm not saying it's a guarantee Sermon will get there, but it's much more excusable in my opinion for a rookie to be at that point.  

Nobody ultimately knows - I guess my point is the info we DO know is that people were willing to draft Sermon with Mostert in the picture.  Now, Mostert is out of the picture, and Sermon has played in 1 game and had 1 carry, and folks are flat-out dropping him. 

The reason for him being dropped is that he has seen limited carries, and is currently playing behind Mitchell and Hasty.  My counter is that he's again, still a rookie with no experience yet.  The team used a 3rd rounder on him.  Your comment re. kicking the tires on FA RB's to me speaks more about the team's concern re. RB depth than it does anything specific to Sermon.  If they felt Mitchell or Hasty was "the answer," then you'd think they wouldn't need anything more than depth - if that.  

I could be wrong, you could be wrong - all good points I think on both sides.  I just feel like this guy's underlying situation got markedly better due to the Mostert injury - but people are acting like he's done something to warrant cutting.  He hasn't even had the opportunity to show what he's got - and if he does, that opportunity is multiples greater than it was before week 1.

 
Fat Nick said:
Great comparison with Christine Michael.  I think the one difference is Michael was at that point 2-3 years into his career.  He had been in the league in a few systems and STILL couldn't be relied upon to pick up blitzing LB's or know the right gaps.  I'm not saying it's a guarantee Sermon will get there, but it's much more excusable in my opinion for a rookie to be at that point.  

Nobody ultimately knows - I guess my point is the info we DO know is that people were willing to draft Sermon with Mostert in the picture.  Now, Mostert is out of the picture, and Sermon has played in 1 game and had 1 carry, and folks are flat-out dropping him. 

The reason for him being dropped is that he has seen limited carries, and is currently playing behind Mitchell and Hasty.  My counter is that he's again, still a rookie with no experience yet.  The team used a 3rd rounder on him.  Your comment re. kicking the tires on FA RB's to me speaks more about the team's concern re. RB depth than it does anything specific to Sermon.  If they felt Mitchell or Hasty was "the answer," then you'd think they wouldn't need anything more than depth - if that.  

I could be wrong, you could be wrong - all good points I think on both sides.  I just feel like this guy's underlying situation got markedly better due to the Mostert injury - but people are acting like he's done something to warrant cutting.  He hasn't even had the opportunity to show what he's got - and if he does, that opportunity is multiples greater than it was before week 1.
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I haven't dropped him, 12 team redraft, and am certainly not advocating dropping him.

However I am much less optimistic about him this season even with the plethora of pina...I mean injuries in front of him.

I think people overlook the fact that despite drafting Lance, and all our talk about the run game, the key to the Niners success this season is Jimmy Garappolo.

This isn't a gap year for Shanahan, he wants to win and Garappolo is their best bet to make that happen. If Shanahan has the slightest inkling that Patrick or one of the PS guys will be better for Garappolo's long term success than Sermon, for whatever reason, we should expect that guy to be in the lineup.

 
BobbyLayne said:
I was that guy around August.

By the time I did my 4 redrafts though, I had pivoted to Javonte.

LUCKY
Click to expand...
I have him too, grabbed Williams and Sermon in the 5th-6th-7th wherever I could grab those two, felt they had upside in that 15-35 range that was the preseason. 

You'll be in good shape, Gordon already being cut in some leagues I have seen, not sure why but Gordon clearly will not be the lead back there any time soon, could see him traded to someone that needs immediate help. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I have him too, grabbed Williams and Sermon in the 5th-6th-7th wherever I could grab those two, felt they had upside in that 15-35 range that was the preseason. 

You'll be in good shape, Gordon already being cut in some leagues I have seen, not sure why but Gordon clearly will not be the lead back there any time soon, could see him traded to someone that needs immediate help. 
Click to expand...
It definitely looks like a 1a/1b situation in Denver atm but I don't see Gordon's role going away.  He puts a cap on Javonte's touches as long as he is healthy.

 
Chaka said:
It definitely looks like a 1a/1b situation in Denver atm but I don't see Gordon's role going away.  He puts a cap on Javonte's touches as long as he is healthy.
Click to expand...
It's a split right now for sure, you're right but I don't see where half of this pie really helps either of them. Denver isn't good enough to support 2 Top 20 RBs, most teams cannot. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I have him too, grabbed Williams and Sermon in the 5th-6th-7th wherever I could grab those two, felt they had upside in that 15-35 range that was the preseason. 

You'll be in good shape, Gordon already being cut in some leagues I have seen, not sure why but Gordon clearly will not be the lead back there any time soon, could see him traded to someone that needs immediate help. 
Click to expand...
I think as long as Gordon is on that team they are going to use him. But a trade would be very interesting. Rams? Bucs?

 
tricky92 said:
I think as long as Gordon is on that team they are going to use him. But a trade would be very interesting. Rams? Bucs?
Click to expand...
The Bucs? I don't see that happening but I do see teams like perhaps Baltimore, maybe the Jets who could really use a guy like Gordon to help protect their young QB who doesn't look great the first couple weeks but doesn't have a ton of help around him. Not sold on the Jets RBs in the present. 

But the odds are likely he stays in Denver even if his role snaps go down some. 

(Yes this is the trey Sermon thread, we got sidetracked, back to you in the studio Johnny)

 
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Sermon out of concussion protocol.

Shanahan says he’s looked great all week.

Matt Barrows claims it “seems” he’ll be the starter.

Mitchell doubtful.

Starting without confidence.

 
I hate this.

Very happy he's healthy but I still can't see starting him this week.  Hope he stakes a strong claim for the job, or fails colossally (preferably the former) so at least I will have some resolution going into week 4.

 
VikingFrog said:
Sermon out of concussion protocol.

Shanahan says he’s looked great all week.

Matt Barrows claims it “seems” he’ll be the starter.

Mitchell doubtful.

Starting without confidence.
Click to expand...
I'm throwing him in there too over Cook & Hunt. What's the worst that can happen....

 
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