Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Size Alive overall Surv % this week

18 82/5416 1.51% 43.4%

19 43/1905 2.26% 40.6%

20 47/1338 3.51% 49.5%

21 31/961 3.23% 40.8%

22 44/799 5.51% 55.7%

23 46/615 7.48% 54.1%

24 34/491 6.92% 50.0%

25 37/402 9.20% 48.7%

26 27/308 8.77% 54.0%

27 27/233 11.59% 57.5%

28 18/180 10.00% 51.4%

29 17/142 11.97% 63.0%

30 50/271 18.45% 68.5%

What is it with the 30 man rosters? You wouldn't think that 1 or 2 more players would almost double your chances of survival.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 8-10, this team would be the $25,000 winner.

Eliminated in week 11.

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 9-11, this 18-man roster would have won the $25,000.

Eliminated in week 12.I suppose I shouldn't post who would've won had the playoffs been held in weeks 10-12. I don't want to jinx them.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 8-10, this team would be the $25,000 winner.

Eliminated in week 11.

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 9-11, this 18-man roster would have won the $25,000.

Eliminated in week 12.I suppose I shouldn't post who would've won had the playoffs been held in weeks 10-12. I don't want to jinx them.

I didn't consider those earlier weeks to be representative because there were byes, but once the 250 is set next week, I think who among that group did well weeks 11-13 would be more pertinent. But then again I'm only beating the cut by about an average of 35 a week, so it would unlikely to be me that gets jinxed.

 

[Badm]

Im at work and cannot access the query function. Can someone post % owned on players from the remaining 500 teams?TIA

Pos	% live	PlayerQB	41.35%	Derek AndersonQB	39.76%	Aaron RodgersQB	26.24%	Ben RoethlisbergerQB	20.87%	Kyle OrtonQB	15.71%	Joe FlaccoQB	13.32%	Philip RiversQB	12.72%	Matthew StaffordQB	11.73%	Tom BradyQB	10.14%	Sam BradfordQB	7.75%	Carson PalmerQB	7.55%	Matt SchaubQB	7.36%	Matt RyanQB	4.97%	Michael VickQB	4.77%	Drew BreesQB	4.77%	Jake DelhommeQB	3.98%	Jason CampbellQB	3.78%	Matt CasselQB	2.58%	Peyton ManningQB	2.39%	Chad HenneQB	2.19%	Eli ManningQB	1.99%	Vince YoungQB	1.79%	Josh FreemanQB	1.79%	Tim TebowQB	1.59%	Alex SmithQB	1.39%	Brett FavreQB	1.19%	Trent EdwardsQB	0.99%	Matt HasselbeckQB	0.80%	Tony RomoQB	0.60%	Jay CutlerQB	0.40%	David GarrardQB	0.40%	Kevin KolbQB	0.40%	Mark SanchezQB	0.40%	Josh JohnsonQB	0.40%	Matt MooreQB	0.20%	Donovan McNabbRB	99.01%	Arian FosterRB	37.18%	Ahmad BradshawRB	27.83%	Thomas JonesRB	24.06%	Leon WashingtonRB	23.66%	C.J. SpillerRB	23.06%	LaDainian TomlinsonRB	19.09%	Michael TurnerRB	17.10%	Mike TolbertRB	14.91%	Tashard ChoiceRB	12.92%	Fred TaylorRB	12.52%	Frank GoreRB	11.93%	Adrian PetersonRB	11.93%	Matt ForteRB	11.93%	Tim HightowerRB	11.53%	Ray RiceRB	11.33%	Bernard ScottRB	10.34%	Chris JohnsonRB	9.54%	Cedric BensonRB	9.54%	Rashad JenningsRB	8.35%	Brandon JacksonRB	7.36%	Ronnie BrownRB	7.16%	Ryan MathewsRB	6.96%	Javon RingerRB	5.77%	Jahvid BestRB	5.57%	Jamaal CharlesRB	5.57%	Darren McFaddenRB	5.37%	Clinton PortisRB	5.17%	Willis McGaheeRB	4.97%	Marion BarberRB	4.77%	Jerome HarrisonRB	4.57%	Reggie BushRB	4.17%	Sammy MorrisRB	4.17%	Cadillac WilliamsRB	4.17%	DeAngelo WilliamsRB	3.78%	Larry JohnsonRB	3.58%	LeSean McCoyRB	3.58%	Donald BrownRB	2.98%	Marshawn LynchRB	2.98%	Mewelde MooreRB	2.78%	Maurice Jones-DrewRB	2.39%	Rashard MendenhallRB	2.19%	Mike BellRB	1.99%	Michael BushRB	1.59%	Jason SnellingRB	1.39%	Knowshon MorenoRB	1.39%	Justin ForsettRB	1.39%	Toby GerhartRB	0.99%	Pierre ThomasRB	0.99%	Ryan GrantRB	0.99%	Shonn GreeneRB	0.99%	Jonathan DwyerRB	0.99%	Leonard WeaverRB	0.80%	Brian WestbrookRB	0.80%	Felix JonesRB	0.80%	Kevin SmithRB	0.80%	Laurence MaroneyRB	0.80%	LeRon McClainRB	0.80%	Maurice MorrisRB	0.60%	Jerious NorwoodRB	0.60%	Chester TaylorRB	0.60%	Deji KarimRB	0.60%	Derrick WardRB	0.60%	James StarksRB	0.60%	Joseph AddaiRB	0.60%	Ricky WilliamsRB	0.40%	Julius JonesRB	0.40%	Correll BuckhalterRB	0.40%	Darren SprolesRB	0.40%	Steven JacksonRB	0.20%	Montario HardestyRB	0.20%	Ben TateRB	0.20%	Brian LeonardRB	0.20%	Kevin FaulkWR	58.25%	Mike WilliamsWR	51.89%	Louis MurphyWR	34.79%	Deion BranchWR	32.21%	Pierre GarconWR	30.02%	Laurent RobinsonWR	28.83%	Greg CamarilloWR	28.43%	Calvin JohnsonWR	26.64%	Bernard BerrianWR	26.04%	Wes WelkerWR	24.45%	Andre JohnsonWR	21.87%	Devery HendersonWR	20.68%	Patrick CraytonWR	13.52%	Roddy WhiteWR	13.52%	Dexter McClusterWR	13.32%	Terrell OwensWR	12.72%	Jacoby JonesWR	12.52%	Malcom FloydWR	11.33%	Dez BryantWR	11.13%	Jabar GaffneyWR	10.54%	Greg JenningsWR	10.54%	Lance MooreWR	10.34%	Johnny KnoxWR	10.34%	Jordan ShipleyWR	9.54%	Miles AustinWR	8.95%	Santana MossWR	8.95%	Davone BessWR	8.75%	Mark ClaytonWR	7.75%	Julian EdelmanWR	7.55%	Legedu NaaneeWR	6.96%	Harry DouglasWR	6.76%	James JonesWR	6.56%	Johnnie HigginsWR	6.56%	Justin GageWR	5.96%	Dwayne BoweWR	5.96%	Mike WallaceWR	5.77%	Santonio HolmesWR	5.57%	Brian FinneranWR	5.57%	Brian HartlineWR	4.57%	Michael CrabtreeWR	4.37%	Emmanuel SandersWR	4.37%	Steve JohnsonWR	4.37%	Sammie StroughterWR	3.98%	Deon ButlerWR	3.98%	Nate BurlesonWR	3.58%	Hakeem NicksWR	3.58%	Mike ThomasWR	2.98%	Marques ColstonWR	2.98%	Brandon MarshallWR	2.98%	Donald DriverWR	2.98%	Austin CollieWR	2.98%	Jason AvantWR	2.78%	Kevin WalterWR	2.78%	Dwayne JarrettWR	2.58%	Brian RobiskieWR	2.58%	Chris ChambersWR	2.39%	Antwaan Randle ElWR	2.39%	Braylon EdwardsWR	2.19%	Randy MossWR	2.19%	Jordy NelsonWR	2.19%	Mohamed MassaquoiWR	1.99%	Troy WilliamsonWR	1.99%	Devin AromashoduWR	1.99%	Eddie RoyalWR	1.99%	Mario ManninghamWR	1.99%	Mike Sims-WalkerWR	1.99%	Nate WashingtonWR	1.99%	Ted GinnWR	1.79%	Reggie WayneWR	1.79%	Anthony GonzalezWR	1.79%	Jeremy MaclinWR	1.79%	Roy WilliamsWR	1.59%	Hines WardWR	1.59%	Robert MeachemWR	1.59%	Derrick MasonWR	1.59%	Josh CribbsWR	1.39%	DeSean JacksonWR	1.39%	Eric DeckerWR	1.39%	Brandon TateWR	1.39%	Darrius Heyward-BeyWR	1.19%	Percy HarvinWR	1.19%	Earl BennettWR	1.19%	Josh MorganWR	0.99%	Brandon GibsonWR	0.99%	Early DoucetWR	0.80%	Anquan BoldinWR	0.80%	Michael JenkinsWR	0.60%	Demaryius ThomasWR	0.60%	Golden TateWR	0.60%	Jerricho CotcheryWR	0.60%	Lee EvansWR	0.60%	Steve Smith - CARWR	0.60%	Steve Smith - NYGWR	0.40%	Brandon LaFellWR	0.40%	Bryant JohnsonWR	0.40%	Craig DavisWR	0.40%	Kenny BrittWR	0.40%	Larry FitzgeraldWR	0.20%	Antonio BryantWR	0.20%	Chad OchocincoWR	0.20%	Chaz SchilensWR	0.20%	Donte StallworthWR	0.20%	Jarett DillardWR	0.20%	Maurice StovallWR	0.20%	Steve BreastonTE	33.60%	Rob GronkowskiTE	27.63%	Jermaine GreshamTE	24.85%	Aaron HernandezTE	21.67%	Jermichael FinleyTE	18.89%	Jason WittenTE	15.90%	Todd HeapTE	13.32%	Chris CooleyTE	13.12%	Zach Miller - OAKTE	8.55%	Visanthe ShiancoeTE	8.55%	Brandon PettigrewTE	7.55%	Dustin KellerTE	6.96%	Anthony FasanoTE	6.76%	Vernon DavisTE	6.16%	Kevin BossTE	5.77%	Ben WatsonTE	4.37%	John CarlsonTE	4.37%	Tony SchefflerTE	3.98%	Brent CelekTE	3.78%	Kellen WinslowTE	3.58%	Antonio GatesTE	3.38%	Tony MoeakiTE	2.58%	Owen DanielsTE	1.99%	Daniel GrahamTE	1.79%	Desmond ClarkTE	1.79%	Zach Miller - JAXTE	1.79%	Marcedes LewisTE	1.59%	Heath MillerTE	1.39%	Bo ScaifeTE	1.39%	Tony GonzalezTE	1.39%	Donald LeeTE	1.19%	Dallas ClarkTE	1.19%	Jared CookTE	1.19%	David ThomasTE	1.19%	Jeremy ShockeyTE	0.99%	Fred DavisTE	0.80%	Greg OlsenTE	0.80%	Martellus BennettTE	0.60%	Dante RosarioTE	0.40%	Fendi OnobunPK	42.74%	Sebastian JanikowskiPK	38.97%	Matt BryantPK	32.01%	Rob BironasPK	22.47%	Jason HansonPK	13.92%	Dan CarpenterPK	12.52%	Neil RackersPK	10.93%	Ryan SuccopPK	9.94%	Graham GanoPK	7.16%	David BuehlerPK	6.76%	Billy CundiffPK	6.56%	Olindo MarePK	6.16%	Rian LindellPK	5.37%	Joe NedneyPK	5.37%	Phil DawsonPK	4.57%	Mike NugentPK	4.17%	David AkersPK	3.98%	Garrett HartleyPK	3.38%	Jeff ReedPK	2.98%	Adam VinatieriPK	2.98%	Jay FeelyPK	2.78%	Nick FolkPK	2.19%	Lawrence TynesPK	1.99%	Nate KaedingPK	1.79%	Robbie GouldPK	1.59%	Mason CrosbyPK	1.59%	Matt PraterPK	1.19%	Ryan LongwellPK	0.99%	John KasayPK	0.99%	Josh ScobeePK	0.80%	Josh BrownPK	0.80%	Shayne GrahamPK	0.40%	Stephen GostkowskiPK	0.40%	Steve HauschkaTD	35.98%	San Francisco 49ersTD	27.24%	Detroit LionsTD	24.06%	New Orleans SaintsTD	14.71%	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTD	12.13%	Cleveland BrownsTD	11.13%	San Diego ChargersTD	10.34%	Chicago BearsTD	9.15%	Kansas City ChiefsTD	8.15%	New York JetsTD	7.95%	St. Louis RamsTD	6.96%	Tennessee TitansTD	6.76%	Denver BroncosTD	6.76%	Oakland RaidersTD	5.96%	Cincinnati BengalsTD	5.77%	Philadelphia EaglesTD	5.77%	Arizona CardinalsTD	5.77%	Seattle SeahawksTD	5.77%	New England PatriotsTD	4.97%	Dallas CowboysTD	4.77%	Carolina PanthersTD	3.18%	Washington RedskinsTD	3.18%	Houston TexansTD	2.78%	Green Bay PackersTD	2.78%	New York GiantsTD	2.78%	Pittsburgh SteelersTD	2.39%	Atlanta FalconsTD	2.19%	Minnesota VikingsTD	1.99%	Baltimore RavensTD	1.99%	Miami DolphinsTD	1.79%	Jacksonville JaguarsTD	0.99%	Indianapolis ColtsTD	0.60%	Buffalo Bills

You are awesome

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 8-10, this team would be the $25,000 winner.

Eliminated in week 11.

If the playoffs had been held in weeks 9-11, this 18-man roster would have won the $25,000.

Eliminated in week 12.I suppose I shouldn't post who would've won had the playoffs been held in weeks 10-12. I don't want to jinx them.

It isn't me, so go ahead and do it.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Size Alive overall Surv % this week18 82/5416 1.51% 43.4%19 43/1905 2.26% 40.6%20 47/1338 3.51% 49.5%21 31/961 3.23% 40.8%22 44/799 5.51% 55.7%23 46/615 7.48% 54.1%24 34/491 6.92% 50.0%25 37/402 9.20% 48.7%26 27/308 8.77% 54.0%27 27/233 11.59% 57.5%28 18/180 10.00% 51.4%29 17/142 11.97% 63.0%30 50/271 18.45% 68.5%What is it with the 30 man rosters? You wouldn't think that 1 or 2 more players would almost double your chances of survival.

The jump to 18.45% is very odd, since all other percentages are closer together and look like a more normal distribution.I'd be curious to see who the top 10 most-owned players are for the remaining 30-player rosters, ignoring all other entries.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I'd be curious to see who the top 10 most-owned players are for the remaining 30-player rosters, ignoring all other entries.

Arian FosterLouis MurphyDeion BranchMike WilliamsDerek AndersonLaurent RobinsonDetroit LionsGreg CamarilloSebastian JanikowskiMatt Bryant

 

[LittlePhatty]

I'd be curious to see who the top 10 most-owned players are for the remaining 30-player rosters, ignoring all other entries.

Arian FosterLouis MurphyDeion BranchMike WilliamsDerek AndersonLaurent RobinsonDetroit LionsGreg CamarilloSebastian JanikowskiMatt Bryant

Wow, you're quick. Not too much different than the other top 10 list. Lions D and Matt Bryant don't seem likely to make that big of a difference.

 

[stlrams]

The Gore and Peterson (if he can't go this week) owners are a significant portion of owners left.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Congrats to the top 500... Here are the Top 10 owned players:

[*]Arian Foster ($13) - 99.0% (Almost 100%)

[*]Mike Williams ($8) - 58.3%

[*]Louis Murphy ($4) - 51.9%

[*]Derek Anderson ($6) - 41.4%

[*]Aaron Rodgers ($29) - 39.8%

[*]Ahmad Bradshaw ($18) - 37.2%

[*]Sebastian Janikowski ($2) - 36.8%

[*]Deion Branch ($3) - 34.8%

[*]Rob Gronkowski ($3) - 33.0%

[*]Pierre Garcon ($12) - 32.2%

I have 4 of the 10... Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing at this point!

LOL. I have the top 4 on that list.

 

[KarmaPolice]

The Gore and Peterson (if he can't go this week) owners are a significant portion of owners left.

Yeah, I need this. Really don't have a backup if ADP can't go. I am down to counting on Thomas Jones and R. Jennings at that point.

 

[Marvelous]

My 30 man roster is out. The Rivers/Roth/Anderson qb trio did not do well this week.

I have been 20 points over the cut line every week, but fell 14.5 point short this week.

Good luck to the remaining 500.

 

[eaglezzz]

Missed the cut by 0.70 points.

Good Luck to everyone still going!

 

[No Way Jose]

Congrats to the top 500... Here are the Top 10 owned players:

[*]Arian Foster ($13) - 99.0% (Almost 100%)

[*]Mike Williams ($8) - 58.3%

[*]Louis Murphy ($4) - 51.9%

[*]Derek Anderson ($6) - 41.4%

[*]Aaron Rodgers ($29) - 39.8%

[*]Ahmad Bradshaw ($18) - 37.2%

[*]Sebastian Janikowski ($2) - 36.8%

[*]Deion Branch ($3) - 34.8%

[*]Rob Gronkowski ($3) - 33.0%

[*]Pierre Garcon ($12) - 32.2%

I have 4 of the 10... Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing at this point!

LOL. I have the top 4 on that list.

thing is, what does that mean? I have 8 out of 10 of those players and I made the cut by a whopping .30 points.

 

[billyjohnson]

Scored 206.75 this week...cut was 162.10. With a little luck, think I have a chance!

Tom Brady

Joe Flacco

Ronnie Brown

Ahmad Bradshaw

Arian Foster

LT

Thomas Jones

Mike Tolbert

Miles Austin

Wes Welker

Dez Bryant

Mike Williams

Bernard Berrian

Louis Murphy

Deion Branch

Mark Clayton (out)

Dwayne Jarrett

Johnie Lee Higgins

Zach Miller

Chris Cooley

Aaron Hernandez

David Buehler

Dan Carpenter

San Francisco 49ers

Tennessee Titans

Anyone think this team can win the whole thing!!??

 

[TheChairman]

Anyone think this team can win the whole thing!!??

If Brady averages 400/4 and Carpenter averages 5 FG per game for the rest of the year, you have a good shot.

 

[Gamma1210]

Barely made the cut by 1.5. Need my lesser owned WRs to step it up in order to have a chance

Matt Schaub

Ben Roethlisberger

Derek Anderson

Jahvid Best

Ahmad Bradshaw

Arian Foster

Leon Washington

Bernard Scott

Tashard Choice

Wes Welker

Malcom Floyd

Braylon Edwards

Mike Williams

Laurent Robinson

Harry Douglas

Louis Murphy

Deion Branch

Greg Camarillo

Jermichael Finley

Todd Heap

Aaron Hernandez

Tony Moeaki

Ryan Succop

Sebastian Janikowski

Jason Hanson

New Orleans Saints

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

 

[billyjohnson]

Anyone think this team can win the whole thing!!??

If Brady averages 400/4 and Carpenter averages 5 FG per game for the rest of the year, you have a good shot.

LOL..indeed. But if that doesn't happen...still have 22 active starters on my roster.....so should be able to get some good games out of some of them. That's why I thought a 24-26 man roster was the sweet spot. Anyway, good luck to all.Bill

 

[apalmer]

The Gore and Peterson (if he can't go this week) owners are a significant portion of owners left.

63 with Gore60 with ADP3 with BOTH

 

[texasheat]

You guys interested in a chop? be about $9.67 each

Think about it

This is getting more and more tempting... who's with me?

Last chance...

about $70 each

Let's do this

 

[simey]

Last chance...

about $70 each

Let's do this

What is a chop? Is that having teams split the winnings?

 

[texasheat]

Last chance...

about $70 each

Let's do this

What is a chop? Is that having teams split the winnings?

YES

 

[TheChairman]

You guys interested in a chop? be about $9.67 each

Think about it

This is getting more and more tempting... who's with me?

Last chance...

about $70 each

Let's do this

Too many junk entries left to consider a chop

 

[srnohav]

The Gore and Peterson (if he can't go this week) owners are a significant portion of owners left.

63 with Gore60 with ADP3 with BOTH

count me as one of the both category. I felt so good about my team until now. ahhhhh. between the numerous injuries to my squad and the large amount of my players being traded this year, it is amazing that I lasted this long. team 103842

 

[No Way Jose]

You guys interested in a chop? be about $9.67 each

Think about it

This is getting more and more tempting... who's with me?

Last chance...

about $70 each

Let's do this

Too many junk entries left to consider a chop

Lol, what's a junk entry? I'm in BTW.

 

[TheChairman]

Lol, what's a junk entry? I'm in BTW.

Frank Gore entries

 

[Driver]

For those that are interested, these were the survival percentages going into the final 250 last year:

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| 20 | 5181 | 55 | 0.0106 || 21 | 2032 | 15 | 0.0074 || 22 | 1445 | 19 | 0.0131 || 23 | 1291 | 30 | 0.0232 || 24 | 3328 | 131 | 0.0394 || TOTAL | 13277 | 250 | 0.0188 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+And IIRC something like 9 of the top 10 prize winners were 24-man rosters. There was little doubt by the end of the year that the strategy of choosing a smaller roster of "studs" was a losing one.

The above statistics from last year show that the largest teams (24 players) had more than 4 times the odds of making it to the final 250 than the smallest (20 and 21 player) teams - and 3 times the odds compared to the 22-player teams.Some features of the contest are significantly different this year: (1) rosters from 18 up to 30 players are allowed, and (2) the dollar scale for players is compressed with lower values for the best players and substantial reduction of the number of $1 and $2 players.

But the major result is still true -- Teams with larger roster sizes have a much higher survival rate this year, too.

Size Alive overall Surv % this week

18 82/5416 1.51% 43.4%

19 43/1905 2.26% 40.6%

20 47/1338 3.51% 49.5%

21 31/961 3.23% 40.8%

22 44/799 5.51% 55.7%

23 46/615 7.48% 54.1%

24 34/491 6.92% 50.0%

25 37/402 9.20% 48.7%

26 27/308 8.77% 54.0%

27 27/233 11.59% 57.5%

28 18/180 10.00% 51.4%

29 17/142 11.97% 63.0%

30 50/271 18.45% 68.5%

What is it with the 30 man rosters? You wouldn't think that 1 or 2 more players would almost double your chances of survival.

The jump to 18.45% is very odd, since all other percentages are closer together and look like a more normal distribution.

Actually, I think there are five subgroups with different survival rates:1.5% survival rate (82/5416) for the teams with the smallest 18-player rosters

2.9% survival rate (121/4204) for other teams with small roster sizes (19, 20 and 21 players on roster)

7.2% survival rate (188/2615) for teams with a roster size of 22, 23, 24, 25 or 26 players

11.2% survival rate (62/555) for teams with a roster size of 27, 28 or 29 players

18.5% survival rate (50/271) for teams with a roster size of 30 players

However, even though survival rates clearly increase with increasing roster size, I would conjecture that roster size only accounts for a small proportion of the total variation in survival rates across all teams in the contest. Injuries and other random factors account for a substantial proportion of the total variation. A third factor, "skill in player selection and team construction," also accounts for a substantial proportion of the total variation. I think the effect of the third factor is much greater than the effect of roster size alone.

 

[LionSlappy]

Week 12 cutoff = 162.10. My score = 162.10! Live to breathe another week.

Only an 18 player roster tho so I need everyone to produce next week.

 

[wollac]

Size	Alive	Surv %18	82	 1.51%19	43	 2.26%20	47	 3.51%21	31	 3.23%22	44	 5.51%23	46	 7.48%24	34	 6.92%25	37	 9.20%26	27	 8.77%27	27	11.59%28	18	10.00%29	17	11.97%30	50	18.45%

FBG Staff Survival Rate = 13.04%Updated Staff Standings:

2115.05	Jene Bramel2111.7	Jeff Tefertiller (Out Wk 10)2083.35	Jason Wood (out Wk 11)2065.55	Keith Overton (Out Wk 11)2063.8	Matt Waldman (Out Wk 12)2057.8	Jen Maki (Out Wk 11)2055.05	Joe Bryant2054.95	David Yudkin (Out Wk 12)2053.25	Andy Hicks2040.15	Jeff Pasquino (Out Wk 2)2001.15	Aaron Rudnicki (Out Wk 9)1995.6	Bruce Henderson (Out Wk 8)1963.65	David Dodds (Out Wk 10)1947.3	Anthony Borbely (Out Wk 11)1926.25	Bob Henry (Out Wk 4)1916.55	Sigmund Bloom (Out Wk 12)1916.55	Larry Thomas (Out Wk 5)1882.3	Jeff Haseley (Out Wk 10)1874.1	Andrew Garda (Out Wk 11)1781.8	Mark Wimer (Out Wk 3)1742.25	Maurile Tremblay (Out Wk 5)1707.25	Will Grant (Out Wk 6)1646.1	Doug Drinen (Out Wk 2)

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

However, even though survival rates clearly increase with increasing roster size, I would conjecture that roster size only accounts for a small proportion of the total variation in survival rates across all teams in the contest. Injuries and other random factors account for a substantial proportion of the total variation. A third factor, "skill in player selection and team construction," also accounts for a substantial proportion of the total variation. I think the effect of the third factor is much greater than the effect of roster size alone.

Those are all encompassed in roster size, though. "Iinjuries and other random factors" aren't a separate factor from roster size, they are exactly the reason why roster size is a huge factor. Larger rosters survive at a much higher rate precisely because they are far better equipped to deal with injuries and other random variation. They also have more chances to hit on player selection, which is far more luck than skill. I don't think there's any way to slice it and come to the conclusion that roster size isn't overwhelmingly the most predictive factor for survivability over the course of the regular season.

 

[jamil]

Missed the cut by 9 points. Next year >3 TEs is a must. RIP Team 100176

Thank you Rivers and Arian for carrying me.

 

[menobrown]

Congrats to the top 500... Here are the Top 10 owned players:

[*]Arian Foster ($13) - 99.0% (Almost 100%)

[*]Mike Williams ($8) - 58.3%

[*]Louis Murphy ($4) - 51.9%

[*]Derek Anderson ($6) - 41.4%

[*]Aaron Rodgers ($29) - 39.8%

[*]Ahmad Bradshaw ($18) - 37.2%

[*]Sebastian Janikowski ($2) - 36.8%

[*]Deion Branch ($3) - 34.8%

[*]Rob Gronkowski ($3) - 33.0%

[*]Pierre Garcon ($12) - 32.2%

I have 4 of the 10... Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing at this point!

LOL. I have the top 4 on that list.

thing is, what does that mean? I have 8 out of 10 of those players and I made the cut by a whopping .30 points.

I also have 8 from that list, everyone but Rodgers and Garcon. What does it mean? Not a whole lot until you starting talking about the final 250 and than it I think it can be a good thing or bad thing depending on how you start. If you get off to a slow start in the final 250 it's going to be a lot more difficult to gain any ground with a lot of similar players. On the other hand if you should start strongly having a similar core group of players to the majority of the league becomes an asset as it helps you hold your ground. That's just my opinion anyway.

After a quick glance my two least owned players are Austin Collie(15) and Eli Manning (11). If I can make the final 250 the health of Collie and the Giant WR's are going to be key for me. I've noticed a lot of teams with Foster and a riff raff group or RB's or only one other reliable RB other than Foster, this is even more so after the Gore injury. So I might find myself rooting against Foster if I make the final 250. I have Bradshaw who is very common and Turner is owned by close to 20% of the teams so I'm not that unusual having both of them but along with the two Charger RB's(Mathews/Tolbert) I think I stand a decent chance of getting points from the RB spot whereas other Foster owners might find it a little more difficult.

I barely made hung on weeks 10 and 11 so I don't want to get ahead of myself here either. Not going to be easy making the final 250.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

However, even though survival rates clearly increase with increasing roster size, I would conjecture that roster size only accounts for a small proportion of the total variation in survival rates across all teams in the contest. Injuries and other random factors account for a substantial proportion of the total variation. A third factor, "skill in player selection and team construction," also accounts for a substantial proportion of the total variation. I think the effect of the third factor is much greater than the effect of roster size alone.

Those are all encompassed in roster size, though. "Iinjuries and other random factors" aren't a separate factor from roster size, they are exactly the reason why roster size is a huge factor. Larger rosters survive at a much higher rate precisely because they are far better equipped to deal with injuries and other random variation. They also have more chances to hit on player selection, which is far more luck than skill. I don't think there's any way to slice it and come to the conclusion that roster size isn't overwhelmingly the most predictive factor for survivability over the course of the regular season.

I think what he might be getting at is that it takes a greater depth of knowlege regarding the player pool and the values of the players relative to their costs to put together a 30-man roster than it does an 18-man one. If you assume that a depth of such knowledge is a key determinant of success in in the contest--a fair assumption--it makes sense that the larger rosters are doing better than the smaller rosters, because the larger rosters were submitted by more knowledgable entrants. Not saying I agree with him, but its a reasonable inference. I'm a 26-man roster guy myself, who didn't spend alot of time on this. Next year I probably will, and get bounced out much earlier.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

However, even though survival rates clearly increase with increasing roster size, I would conjecture that roster size only accounts for a small proportion of the total variation in survival rates across all teams in the contest. Injuries and other random factors account for a substantial proportion of the total variation. A third factor, "skill in player selection and team construction," also accounts for a substantial proportion of the total variation. I think the effect of the third factor is much greater than the effect of roster size alone.

Those are all encompassed in roster size, though. "Iinjuries and other random factors" aren't a separate factor from roster size, they are exactly the reason why roster size is a huge factor. Larger rosters survive at a much higher rate precisely because they are far better equipped to deal with injuries and other random variation. They also have more chances to hit on player selection, which is far more luck than skill. I don't think there's any way to slice it and come to the conclusion that roster size isn't overwhelmingly the most predictive factor for survivability over the course of the regular season.

I think what he might be getting at is that it takes a greater depth of knowlege regarding the player pool and the values of the players relative to their costs to put together a 30-man roster than it does an 18-man one. If you assume that a depth of such knowledge is a key determinant of success in in the contest--a fair assumption--it makes sense that the larger rosters are doing better than the smaller rosters, because the larger rosters were submitted by more knowledgable entrants. Not saying I agree with him, but its a reasonable inference. I'm a 26-man roster guy myself, who didn't spend alot of time on this. Next year I probably will, and get bounced out much earlier.

I don't disagree that there is probably a correlation between more knowledgable entrants and larger rosters. But large rosters aren't doing well because their owners are more knowledgable, they're doing better because large rosters are better than small rosters. They appear to be inherently better suited to survive over the course of a 13-week regular season. It's not "more knowledgable people submit larger rosters, therefore larger rosters end up doing better," it's "larger rosters are better, therefore more knowledgable people end up submitting larger rosters." That's how I see it, at least. I think if we could somehow round up the most "knowledgable" owners and force them to submit 18-man rosters, and force a bunch of less-knowledgable owners to submit larger rosters, we'd still see the same trend.

 

[Andy Hicks]

Size	Alive	Surv %18	82	 1.51%19	43	 2.26%20	47	 3.51%21	31	 3.23%22	44	 5.51%23	46	 7.48%24	34	 6.92%25	37	 9.20%26	27	 8.77%27	27	11.59%28	18	10.00%29	17	11.97%30	50	18.45%

FBG Staff Survival Rate = 13.04%Updated Staff Standings:

2115.05	Jene Bramel2111.7	Jeff Tefertiller (Out Wk 10)2083.35	Jason Wood (out Wk 11)2065.55	Keith Overton (Out Wk 11)2063.8	Matt Waldman (Out Wk 12)2057.8	Jen Maki (Out Wk 11)2055.05	Joe Bryant2054.95	David Yudkin (Out Wk 12)2053.25	Andy Hicks2040.15	Jeff Pasquino (Out Wk 2)2001.15	Aaron Rudnicki (Out Wk 9)1995.6	Bruce Henderson (Out Wk 8)1963.65	David Dodds (Out Wk 10)1947.3	Anthony Borbely (Out Wk 11)1926.25	Bob Henry (Out Wk 4)1916.55	Sigmund Bloom (Out Wk 12)1916.55	Larry Thomas (Out Wk 5)1882.3	Jeff Haseley (Out Wk 10)1874.1	Andrew Garda (Out Wk 11)1781.8	Mark Wimer (Out Wk 3)1742.25	Maurile Tremblay (Out Wk 5)1707.25	Will Grant (Out Wk 6)1646.1	Doug Drinen (Out Wk 2)

I'm one of the only 3 staff entries left and I have a 30 man roster. It was a deliberate strategy to take 30 players and as I was stuck on 249 with 29 players took Tolbert as my 30th guy.I'm in it because of the scraps, not my "studs", used to fill the quota. My Studs ($20+) were DeAngelo Williams (28), Randy Moss (29) and Jermichael Finley (21).That's a third of my budget on 3 guys that have been disappointing at best. Caveat: Moss has counted for 7 weeks, illustrating the lack of depth at WR. The reason I'm still alive is Steve Johnson, Kyle Orton, Mike Tolbert and Rob Gronkowski (total = $20). Obviously Foster as well, but everyone has him. 3 Defenses and 3 kickers has been crucial in navigating through bye weeks, as has a 4th TE once Finley went down.The closest I've been to the cutline is +19 in Week 2Obviously, this is the week it all falls apartGood luck to the final 500

 

[Driver]

Size	Alive	Surv %18	82	 1.51%19	43	 2.26%20	47	 3.51%21	31	 3.23%22	44	 5.51%23	46	 7.48%24	34	 6.92%25	37	 9.20%26	27	 8.77%27	27	11.59%28	18	10.00%29	17	11.97%30	50	18.45%

FBG Staff Survival Rate = 13.04%Updated Staff Standings:

2115.05	Jene Bramel2111.7	Jeff Tefertiller (Out Wk 10)2083.35	Jason Wood (out Wk 11)2065.55	Keith Overton (Out Wk 11)2063.8	Matt Waldman (Out Wk 12)2057.8	Jen Maki (Out Wk 11)2055.05	Joe Bryant2054.95	David Yudkin (Out Wk 12)2053.25	Andy Hicks2040.15	Jeff Pasquino (Out Wk 2)2001.15	Aaron Rudnicki (Out Wk 9)1995.6	Bruce Henderson (Out Wk 8)1963.65	David Dodds (Out Wk 10)1947.3	Anthony Borbely (Out Wk 11)1926.25	Bob Henry (Out Wk 4)1916.55	Sigmund Bloom (Out Wk 12)1916.55	Larry Thomas (Out Wk 5)1882.3	Jeff Haseley (Out Wk 10)1874.1	Andrew Garda (Out Wk 11)1781.8	Mark Wimer (Out Wk 3)1742.25	Maurile Tremblay (Out Wk 5)1707.25	Will Grant (Out Wk 6)1646.1	Doug Drinen (Out Wk 2)

I think the experience of the 23 FBG staff members (who participated in the contest) indicates the importance of "skill in player selection and team construction." Three of these 23 teams (13.0%) are still alive -- much better than the 3.85% average survival rate of all 13,061 teams in the contest. Only 5 of the 23 staff members had 30-player rosters. The three remaining FBG teams have 22 players, 29 players, and 30 players.To control for the effects of roster size, if you apply the contest's survival rates by roster size (1.51%, 2.26%, etc.) to the number of original FBG teams by roster size, the number of FBG teams expected to still be alive is 2.098 (compared to the 3 teams actually still alive). Thus, although a small sample, the current survival rate of FBG teams is 43% better than the average team in the contest -- after controlling for the effect of roster size.Looked at from a different perspective, midway through the contest after 9 weeks, 14 of the 23 FBG staff members were still alive in the contest. At that point, their 60.9% survival rate was even higher than the survival rate for teams with 30 players on the roster. Among the 14 surviving FBG teams after week 9, the distribution by roster size was as follows:18 players - 1 team (out of 1 original team in contest)19 players - 0 (out of 1)20 players - 1 team (out of 2)21 players - 1 team (out of 1)22 players - 1 team (out of 1)23 players - 3 teams (out of 3)24 players - 0 (out of 4)25 players - 2 teams (out of 2)26 players - 1 team (out of 2)29 players - 1 team (out of 1)30 players - 3 teams (out of 5)For the smaller FBG teams with 21 or less players on the roster, 3 of the original 5 FBG teams were still alive after 9 weeks -- a survival rate of 60%.Obviously, FBG staff members are FF smart and have access to the very best FF information. However, the 23 FBG teams are very different in player selection. For example, consider QBs on the 23 teams:1. Palmer - Stafford - Orton2. Sanchez - Orton - Moore3. Stafford - Roethlisberger - Anderson4. E. Manning - Palmer - Young5. Cutler - Ryan - Anderson6. Brees - Stafford7. Rivers - Roethlisberger8. Rodgers - Orton9. Favre - Stafford - Orton10. Palmer - Stafford - Roethlisberger11. Romo - Campbell - Anderson12. Flacco - Stafford - Anderson13. P. Manning - Roethlisberger - Anderson14. Ryan - Henne15. Schaub - Bradford16. Rodgers - Roethlisberger17. Rodgers - Anderson18. Schaub - Ryan19. Rodgers - Garrard - Anderson20. Rodgers - Stafford21. Brees - Roethlisberger ***22. Rodgers - Orton ***23. Henne - Orton - Campbell - Anderson ***Eleven teams had 2 QBs; 11 teams had 3 QBs; and one team had 4 QBs. There was substantial diversity, but there were some favorites -- eight teams had Anderson, 6 teams had Orton, and 6 teams had Roethlisberger. The starred teams are still alive.I think the experience of the FBG staff members indicates that:1. For the FBG teams, higher survival rates are associated with larger roster sizes, but to a much smaller degree than indicated by the results for all 13,061 teams in the contest.2. Even after controlling for the effect of roster size, FBG teams had a 43% better chance of surviving (through week 12) than the average team in the contest.3. Although team roster size certainly matters, skill in player selection and team construction is a more dominant factor than roster size alone.

 

[QuizGuy66]

The magic number IS 162.10.

I'll be dancing the jig all day with my 163.85.

Even worse I didn't get properly Turked as this is apparently some sort of WikiLeaks version of turking

Been having computer issues (need to buy a laptop pronto now) so other than sulking I've had other reasons not to be on.

Missed it by 11.95 *sigh*. Will take a look at my alternate-reality entry (the more objective "optimum" one that I tweaked to get to my roster and probably at what I find. Hard to really be too upset about Rivers laying an egg (which pretty much buried me) as he played a huge role in my progress all year. This is the time of year where all that's cut is wheat - no chaff makes it this far. I actually put up a lower number earlier in the year than this week's 150.15, but those weeks are long gone. If Rivers came through I would've been looking at Kellen Winslow as a true hero with his 16.4 Cold comfort to know that if Stafford had gotten Hill's 20.55 that wouldn't have been quite enough either.

This contest is a blast as always and in large part that's due to this thread Here's hoping that the winner comes out of our ranks!

I'll try and gin up the strength to do some analysis (though you'll probably need to deal with a little of me about my ghost entry) as there are some interesting things I've been pondering about the final group. Comical that there's only 5 guys left who don't have Foster. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right!

Anyhow good luck to the fortunate 500. The postseason contest can't come soon enough

-QG

 

[Wide Right]

The magic number IS 162.10.

I'll be dancing the jig all day with my 163.85.

Even worse I didn't get properly Turked as this is apparently some sort of WikiLeaks version of turking

Been having computer issues (need to buy a laptop pronto now) so other than sulking I've had other reasons not to be on.

Missed it by 11.95 *sigh*. Will take a look at my alternate-reality entry (the more objective "optimum" one that I tweaked to get to my roster and probably at what I find. Hard to really be too upset about Rivers laying an egg (which pretty much buried me) as he played a huge role in my progress all year. This is the time of year where all that's cut is wheat - no chaff makes it this far. I actually put up a lower number earlier in the year than this week's 150.15, but those weeks are long gone. If Rivers came through I would've been looking at Kellen Winslow as a true hero with his 16.4 Cold comfort to know that if Stafford had gotten Hill's 20.55 that wouldn't have been quite enough either.

This contest is a blast as always and in large part that's due to this thread Here's hoping that the winner comes out of our ranks!

I'll try and gin up the strength to do some analysis (though you'll probably need to deal with a little of me about my ghost entry) as there are some interesting things I've been pondering about the final group. Comical that there's only 5 guys left who don't have Foster. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right!

Anyhow good luck to the fortunate 500. The postseason contest can't come soon enough

-QG

QG -

Just wanted to say thanks for all your analysis through the contest. You have made it fun to read this post and have made the contest more enjoyable. Any analysis you do on the remaining 500 that you want to pull together and share would definately be welcome.

Thanks again!

 

[LittlePhatty]

I'm one of the only 3 staff entries left and I have a 30 man roster. It was a deliberate strategy to take 30 players and as I was stuck on 249 with 29 players took Tolbert as my 30th guy.

I'm in it because of the scraps, not my "studs", used to fill the quota.

I didn't shoot for 30 players specifically, just "27 or above" felt right. I was at 27 with $1 left and didn't want to change any of my other players, so Tolbert came on board to make 28. I would have fallen short of the cut in both weeks 11 and 12 without him. I wonder if next year there won't be any $1 players.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Missed it by 11.95 *sigh*.

Sorry to hear it QG. And like Wide Right said, thanks to you and a bunch of other people for making this thread fun. I know some people don't like "giving away secrets" in this contest or whatever, but to me there is still so much luck involved that it is more fun to discuss and analyze the strategy of it all.I bet a lot of the 18-man "stud" rosters are hurting due to the Gore and ADP injuries, so that alone might provide enough fuel for next year's "what if" discussion regarding the final 3 weeks and stud players.

 

[CalBear]

I started out by trying to get all the cheap players who looked undervalued and able to contribute. That took my roster well above 30 players, so I figured that 30 must be a solid number.

Unfortunately the ones I chose didn't work out so well, particularly at WR, mostly due to injury. (Aromashodu, Nannee, L.Robinson, C.Schiliens, H.Douglas, D.Driver, L.Murphy...ouch). Those, combined with losing one of my only expensive players (Pierre Thomas) doomed me. I was a contrarian, went without A.Foster, although he wouldn't have saved me the week I got eliminated.

 

[Saint]

QG -Just wanted to say thanks for all your analysis through the contest. You have made it fun to read this post and have made the contest more enjoyable. Any analysis you do on the remaining 500 that you want to pull together and share would definately be welcome. Thanks again!

I have to second this comment. To be honest, the main reason I started getting hyped about this thread was from you and Iggy. The thread definitely makes it interesting!!! I scan this thread everyday looking for another nugget for next year or when Drinen posts some updated info, like Power rankings!And to keep the thread moving....

thing is, what does that mean? I have 8 out of 10 of those players and I made the cut by a whopping .30 points.

From a holistic viewpoint, seeing the top 10 gives you an idea on how many different players you have on your roster. At this point, Foster is a wash, so if you don't need him that much (as you have some better players), you are hoping he tanks as it will take down more teams. So from my viewpoint with a 27-man roster, I want my other guys to step up and play better than the guys that are owned by 1/3 of the league.

 

[Kleck]

Been averaging over 197 a week, but not week 12.

Later, Gents...

 

[bagger]

Gore going out for the season probably means the end for many Gore owners (including myself) come next week. Was a good run gang...

 

[Joe T]

Gore going out for the season probably means the end for many Gore owners (including myself) come next week. Was a good run gang...

what's your take on the Derek Anderson "Flip Out"?

 

[LittlePhatty]

The postseason contest can't come soon enough

What is this?:intrigued:

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The postseason contest can't come soon enough

What is this?:intrigued:

It's different every year IIRC. Here's last year's contest.

 

[cascaa]

Gore going out for the season probably means the end for many Gore owners (including myself) come next week. Was a good run gang...

what's your take on the Derek Anderson "Flip Out"?

previous DA flip out...not the first time

 

[H8fulHuck]

Holy crap. Brian Robiskie counted for me this week! Unfortunately, that means I'm out by 4 points.

Been a great ride fellas. Best of luck to the half that remain.

 

[Bad_Mo]

So pissed that I would have rolled through this week with ease if my week 9 byes didn't screw me over by a handful of points.