The Democrats need to wake up! Update: And near the last second, THEY HAVE (4 Viewers)

[matuski]

It’s a weird take.  Do you know that there are more Democrats than Republicans?

Fantastic trivia... so the masses are getting played by the minority?

 

[matuski]

The Democrats spent the last four years battling Trump on Russia and a strange Ukraine impeachment trial.  They totally lost those battles.  Therefore there’s a real good shot that they are going to lose in the fall. 

It’s been 100% negativity for four years from them and in an economy where things are going great, I’m afraid that’s not gonna work.

The dems didn’t come up with a good candidate, and the dems didn’t attack Trump where they should have.  The dems were in the middle of the Me Too movement and they had a sitting president with 10+ sexual misconduct allegations and somehow decided it would be smarter to focus on a shady dossier and a lunatic Russian Manchurian candidate conspiracy theory.

Great post.

They put all their eggs into one basket, lost badly, and are lost in general now.

 

[shader]

Oh, and the dnc are so dumb they are trying to rig their processes against Bernie Sanders...again....which will annoy his loyalists......again.  You can’t make this stuff up

 

[TheMagus]

Oh, and the dnc are so dumb they are trying to rig their processes against Bernie Sanders...again....which will annoy his loyalists......again.  You can’t make this stuff up

So you always have presented yourself as someone interested in facts and evidence and not prone to "conspiracy theories." In that light, can you explain what you mean when you say that the DNC is trying to rig their processes against Bernie?

 

[matuski]

So you always have presented yourself as someone interested in facts and evidence and not prone to "conspiracy theories." In that light, can you explain what you mean when you say that the DNC is trying to rig their processes against Bernie?

Yeah, no facts or evidence whatsoever that something effed up went on in Iowa.

Like someone was trying to create a conspiracy.

 

[BassNBrew]

So you always have presented yourself as someone interested in facts and evidence and not prone to "conspiracy theories." In that light, can you explain what you mean when you say that the DNC is trying to rig their processes against Bernie?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX4_RyfedBU

 

[ShamrockPride]

I'm about 100% sure we'll never get the results of this alleged "recanvassing".

 

[Sabertooth]

Valid point, keep it up you guys are crushing it!

I agree.  They picked up 40 house seats in 2018.  They just need to keep after Trump.  Keep exposing hypocrisy in the Senate.  And keep hammering Michigan and Wisconsin.  They are doing fine.  I know you hate to admit that.  But everybody knew what the outcome of Impeached President Trump's Senate "trial" would be.  Republicans don't break rank.  They can't.  They are slaves to Trump at this point.  So no surprise there.  

It's all going according to plan.  

 

[GoBirds]

I agree.  They picked up 40 house seats in 2018.  They just need to keep after Trump.  Keep exposing hypocrisy in the Senate.  And keep hammering Michigan and Wisconsin.  They are doing fine.  I know you hate to admit that.  But everybody knew what the outcome of Impeached President Trump's Senate "trial" would be.  Republicans don't break rank.  They can't.  They are slaves to Trump at this point.  So no surprise there.  

It's all going according to plan.  

If only it was still 2018. 

 

[Sabertooth]

The Democrats spent the last four years battling Trump on Russia and a strange Ukraine impeachment trial.  They totally lost those battles.  Therefore there’s a real good shot that they are going to lose in the fall. 

It’s been 100% negativity for four years from them and in an economy where things are going great, I’m afraid that’s not gonna work.

The dems didn’t come up with a good candidate, and the dems didn’t attack Trump where they should have.  The dems were in the middle of the Me Too movement and they had a sitting president with 10+ sexual misconduct allegations and somehow decided it would be smarter to focus on a shady dossier and a lunatic Russian Manchurian candidate conspiracy theory.

Did they though?  I don't know.  I guess we'll find out in November.  It's all part of their presidential campaign.  Always has been.  It was a big dog and pony show, sure.  

 

[Sabertooth]

If only it was still 2018. 

Well they didn't have elections in 2019.  Those still matter right?  Or no? 

 

[GoBirds]

The Democrats spent the last four years battling Trump on Russia and a strange Ukraine impeachment trial.  They totally lost those battles.  Therefore there’s a real good shot that they are going to lose in the fall. 

It’s been 100% negativity for four years from them and in an economy where things are going great, I’m afraid that’s not gonna work.

The dems didn’t come up with a good candidate, and the dems didn’t attack Trump where they should have.  The dems were in the middle of the Me Too movement and they had a sitting president with 10+ sexual misconduct allegations and somehow decided it would be smarter to focus on a shady dossier and a lunatic Russian Manchurian candidate conspiracy theory.

Wait a second, you are telling me Americans want politicians to work on improving their daily lives and not pursuing conspiracies with Russia and Ukraine or years that accomplish nothing productive?

 

[GoBirds]

Well they didn't have elections in 2019.  Those still matter right?  Or no? 

Sure, just ignore that Trump approval was in the 30’s before your Impeachment* charade and it jumped to 49 and pretend it’s all the same. You have us all fooled, cruising right along just like 2018. 

 

[Sabertooth]

Wait a second, you are telling me Americans want politicians to work on improving their daily lives and not pursuing conspiracies with Russia and Ukraine or years that accomplish nothing productive?

I don't want to speak for him.  But obstructionism and conspiracy theories literally caused Trump.  The Republicans mopped the floor with the Democrats in 2016 using those tools.  I'm glad the Democrats realized that elections are now won via meme and innuendo.  Policy doesn't really matter much anymore.  Lol.  Why would you not copy that strategy, it worked beautifully for the right.  I really get a kick out of the pearl clutching by people such as yourself.  

Lock her up eh?  Lol. 
Obama is a Muslim!  Wooh Hoo!

 

[Sabertooth]

Sure, just ignore that Trump approval was in the 30’s before your Impeachment* charade and it jumped to 49 and pretend it’s all the same. You have us all fooled, cruising right along just like 2018. 

Polls    

 

[GoBirds]

I don't want to speak for him.  But obstructionism and conspiracy theories literally caused Trump.  The Republicans mopped the floor with the Democrats in 2016 using those tools.  I'm glad the Democrats realized that elections are now won via meme and innuendo.  Policy doesn't really matter much anymore.  Lol.  Why would you not copy that strategy, it worked beautifully for the right.  I really get a kick out of the pearl clutching by people such as yourself.  

Lock her up eh?  Lol. 
Obama is a Muslim!  Wooh Hoo!

Ha, good luck! Rough week for you guys, and it’s showing. 

 

[ShamrockPride]

I don't want to speak for him.  But obstructionism and conspiracy theories literally caused Trump.  The Republicans mopped the floor with the Democrats in 2016 using those tools.  I'm glad the Democrats realized that elections are now won via meme and innuendo.  Policy doesn't really matter much anymore.  Lol.  Why would you not copy that strategy, it worked beautifully for the right.  I really get a kick out of the pearl clutching by people such as yourself.  

Lock her up eh?  Lol. 
Obama is a Muslim!  Wooh Hoo!

You think Dems distancing themselves from the working class into the laps of Wall Street and big pharma over the past couple decades is a conspiracy?

 

[Sabertooth]

Ha, good luck! Rough week for you guys, and it’s showing. 

Not for me gb.  I literally had a killer week.  I bought a house for $30k and sold it for $60k without putting a nail in it.  Cheers.  One of my best weeks ever.  

 

[Sabertooth]

You think Dems distancing themselves from the working class into the laps of Wall Street and big pharma over the past couple decades is a conspiracy?

Do you think them picking up almost 50 House seats was a clerical error?  

Do you think Hillary is locked up?

Do you think Obama is locked up? 

Do you think Mexico paid for the wall that isn't there? 

 

[ShamrockPride]

Do you think them picking up almost 50 House seats was a clerical error?  

Do you think Hillary is locked up?

Do you think Obama is locked up? 

Do you think Mexico paid for the wall that isn't there? 

Soooo.... you're talking about the 41 seats they picked up AFTER the last Pres election? Okay then.

 

[GoBirds]

Not for me gb.  I literally had a killer week.  I bought a house for $30k and sold it for $60k without putting a nail in it.  Cheers.  One of my best weeks ever.  

Glad to see that Trump economy working for you. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Are both sides at least in agreement that it's going to come down to a handful of states with PA,WI and MI being the main ones?  Does anyone really think we're going to get a Reagan 84 map or an Obama 08?

 

[Sabertooth]

Glad to see that Trump economy working for you. 

No you aren't.  Lol.  

 

[Sabertooth]

Are both sides at least in agreement that it's going to come down to a handful of states with PA,WI and MI being the main ones?  Does anyone really think we're going to get a Reagan 84 map or an Obama 08?

It's going to be razor thin and if the Democrats win, it will be challenged all the way to the SCOTUS ala 2000.  And even then Trump may refuse to leave office.  Lol.  

 

[GoBirds]

It's going to be razor thin and if the Democrats win, it will be challenged all the way to the SCOTUS ala 2000.  And even then Trump may refuse to leave office.  Lol.  

After the Dems behavior the last 4 years I would be prepared for absolutely everything to be challenged going forward. Welcome to the new normal. 

 

[Sabertooth]

After the Dems behavior the last 4 years I would be prepared for absolutely everything to be challenged going forward. Welcome to the new normal. 

Hey, we agree on something.  That's what happens when you steal a Supreme Court seat.  It's called precedent.  Mitch and Donald don't seem to grasp the concept.  Pandora's box is open now.  It will only get worse.  No Supreme court seat will ever be filled again while the President and Senate belong to different parties.  Sad really.  

 

[GoBirds]

Hey, we agree on something.  That's what happens when you steal a Supreme Court seat.  It's called precedent.  Mitch and Donald don't seem to grasp the concept.  Pandora's box is open now.  It will only get worse.  No Supreme court seat will ever be filled again while the President and Senate belong to different parties.  Sad really.  

If only we could get the Dems back in control that do everything right! Hey good luck with those real estate returns when Bernie takes office! 

 

[JohnnyU]

Not for me gb.  I literally had a killer week.  I bought a house for $30k and sold it for $60k without putting a nail in it.  Cheers.  One of my best weeks ever.  

Not sure I would want to live in a house that only cost $60k.  Does it have bars on the windows?

 

[Sabertooth]

If only we could get the Dems back in control that do everything right! Hey good luck with those real estate returns when Bernie takes office! 

The returns are largely a function of my strategy and basically work in a poor or good economy.  When I got started in 2008, the economy was in the toilet.  There were tons of foreclosures but people with good credit could still buy.  So I just had to be picky about which houses I flipped.  Now in 2020, the economy is great which means there are more buyers.  What does that mean for me?  Well, I have to be picky about which houses I flip.  Same deal.  Less supply (by far) on the buy side.  But much bigger pool of buyers on the sell side.  

Basically as long as I'm buying right, I do ok.  I did my previous best on a house in 2010 I believe.   Which netted me about $25k for very little work.  

 

[timschochet]

Good morning. I feel much better after yesterday. You know why? Because when things are going well for Trump, when it looks like he’s going to win, he always ALWAYS makes a fool out of himself and blows it. His two speeches yesterday, at the prayer breakfast and later on, were so awful and grotesque that he guaranteed that the Democrats are right back in this thing. It will be a close election either way; this race is just getting started. 

 

[timschochet]

Buttigieg rising in New Hampshire, Bernie slightly slipping. Biden fading. 

Can Buttigieg use these strong showings to somehow get black support? 

 

[Sabertooth]

Not sure I would want to live in a house that only cost $60k.  Does it have bars on the windows?

No I'm in the rural UP.  It was a situation where I bought it for 30k because the money was all going to be surrendered to a nursing home and the sellers knew it.  (Yay capitalistic healthcare).  It was a sad situation but I was the only offer and the nursing home agreed to the liquidation of the asset.  So I was patient.  Gave them my number and walked away.  They scoffed, waited another month and then called me back.  

On the buy side, this is people who are currently renting and buying their first home.  They are totally pumped so that's pretty rewarding too.  I bought for a song, and I'm selling at market value.  

So I guess, in a way...it is Trump's policy of for-profit healthcare, driving yet another family into the poor house, that started this process.  Thanks Don.  

 

[Sabertooth]

Good morning. I feel much better after yesterday. You know why? Because when things are going well for Trump, when it looks like he’s going to win, he always ALWAYS makes a fool out of himself and blows it. His two speeches yesterday, at the prayer breakfast and later on, were so awful and grotesque that he guaranteed that the Democrats are right back in this thing. It will be a close election either way; this race is just getting started. 

It's going to come down to the last team to have the ball winning.  Just like in football many times, as it were.  

 

[JohnnyU]

Good morning. I feel much better after yesterday. You know why? Because when things are going well for Trump, when it looks like he’s going to win, he always ALWAYS makes a fool out of himself and blows it. His two speeches yesterday, at the prayer breakfast and later on, were so awful and grotesque that he guaranteed that the Democrats are right back in this thing. It will be a close election either way; this race is just getting started. 

:crickets:

 

[Sabertooth]

Buttigieg rising in New Hampshire, Bernie slightly slipping. Biden fading. 

Can Buttigieg use these strong showings to somehow get black support? 

FWIW, I think Bloomberg wins the whole thing. And I like that.  I love how his sarcastic "little brother" approach to Trump.  He just laugh "who is the other billionaire?"  "I hired him to run my golf course."  Gold, Jerry! 

 

[timschochet]

:crickets:

Well you’re reading it so not exactly, right? 

 

[timschochet]

FWIW, I think Bloomberg wins the whole thing. And I like that.  I love how his sarcastic "little brother" approach to Trump.  He just laugh "who is the other billionaire?"  "I hired him to run my golf course."  Gold, Jerry! 

Would t mind that at all if it happens. 

 

[MAC_32]

The Democrats spent the last four years battling Trump on Russia and a strange Ukraine impeachment trial.  They totally lost those battles.  Therefore there’s a real good shot that they are going to lose in the fall. 

It’s been 100% negativity for four years from them and in an economy where things are going great, I’m afraid that’s not gonna work.

The dems didn’t come up with a good candidate, and the dems didn’t attack Trump where they should have.  The dems were in the middle of the Me Too movement and they had a sitting president with 10+ sexual misconduct allegations and somehow decided it would be smarter to focus on a shady dossier and a lunatic Russian Manchurian candidate conspiracy theory.

Is it though.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I've referenced her work before, but IMO Rachel Bitecofer's "Negative Partisanship" hypothesis seems to fit the evidence well so far.  She nailed 2018 months in advance (+40 seats for Dems) while other people were arguing about whether Dems could retake the house.  I do think it's possible her theory is right as long as we remain so polarized, but 2020 will be a very interesting test.

Anyhow, here's the lede from an article in Politico:

What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is? What if there is no such thing as “the center,” and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats' big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?

To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.

Bitecofer, a 42-year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political forecasting until November 2018. That’s when she nailed almost to the number the nature and size of the Democrats’ win in the House, even as other forecasters went wobbly in the race’s final days. Not only that, but she put out her forecast back in July, and then stuck by it while polling shifted throughout the summer and fall.

And today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate. If she’s right, we are now in a post-economy, post-incumbency, post record-while-in-office era of politics. Her analysis, as Bitecofer puts it with characteristic immodesty, amounts to nothing less than “flipping giant paradigms of electoral theory upside down.”

Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place. To her critics, she’s an extreme apostle of the old saw that “turnout explains everything,” taking a long victory lap after getting lucky one time. She sees things slightly differently: That the last few elections show that American politics really has changed, and other experts have been slow to process what it means.

 

[timschochet]

The other thing that cheers me up is this: the results from Iowa and the polling from NH tell me that despite my earlier fears, Bernie’s numbers are not growing. Just like in 2016, he’s not able to increase his base of of support. The Democratic voters still prefer a centrist; they still think that only a centrist can defeat Trump. 

So it may be Buttigieg, or Bloomberg instead of Biden. It may even be Klobuchar (though that’s unlikely now). But one of these is going to be the nominee I believe. And that puts the advantage back to the Democrats again. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Good morning. I feel much better after yesterday. You know why? Because when things are going well for Trump, when it looks like he’s going to win, he always ALWAYS makes a fool out of himself and blows it. His two speeches yesterday, at the prayer breakfast and later on, were so awful and grotesque that he guaranteed that the Democrats are right back in this thing. It will be a close election either way; this race is just getting started. 

Well said.  

Trump just needs to tone it down, run the clock out; and ice the D's offense. He's up by 6 under the 2 minute warning and he's throwing Hail Marys because he bet the  (-7 1/2) line on his team. 

ETA: That being said...the D's are going to get the ball back, promptly march down the field, score a TD, go for 2 because they don't QUITE understand what to do, miss it and force the country into an Overtime. 

 

[timschochet]

On the other hand, the jobs report just came out and it’s excellent. That’s great for the country and I wouldn’t have it any other way, but it’s also great for Trump. So long as the job market is strong and 401ks do well he will be difficult to defeat no matter how absurd he behaves. 

 

[timschochet]

As far as the argument that the Democrats blew it with impeachment, I don’t quite understand that. A whistleblower revealed that Trump attempted to blackmail Ukraine, jeopardizing our national security, and cheating in the election. What were the Democrats supposed to do with this information? Squash it? Do nothing? They had no choice but to proceed as they did. 

 

[The Dude]

Bloomberg or bust

 

[matuski]

As far as the argument that the Democrats blew it with impeachment, I don’t quite understand that. A whistleblower revealed that Trump attempted to blackmail Ukraine, jeopardizing our national security, and cheating in the election. What were the Democrats supposed to do with this information? Squash it? Do nothing? They had no choice but to proceed as they did. 

This is what they blew it with.

Instead of presenting the information and proceeding in an organized, professional manner - they jumped right in the mud with the republicans and willingly made it a political circus.

 

[sho nuff]

This is what they blew it with.

Instead of presenting the information and proceeding in an organized, professional manner - they jumped right in the mud with the republicans and willingly made it a political circus.

Umm the impeachment hearings were an organized and professional hearings.  They presented that information there in such a manmer.

 

[matuski]

Umm the impeachment hearings were an organized and professional hearings.  They presented that information there in such a manmer.

The fat chick had already sung.  The guy on the unicycle already had tigers jumping through flaming hula hoops, and the elephant in the tutu had walked the tight rope.

Nobody even watched the janitors sweeping up the popcorn in a professional and organized manner.

 

[sho nuff]

The fat chick had already sung.  The guy on the unicycle already had tigers jumping through flaming hula hoops, and the elephant in the tutu had walked the tight rope.

Nobody even watched the janitors sweeping up the popcorn in a professional and organized manner.

The point was they did exactly what you claimed...presenting the evidence in a professional manner.  Now you change to...well, nobody watched. Round and round we go...

 

[parasaurolophus]

Buttigieg rising in New Hampshire, Bernie slightly slipping. Biden fading. 

Can Buttigieg use these strong showings to somehow get black support? 

He is white and gay. So you already know the answer to that question. 

 

[sho nuff]

He is white and gay. So you already know the answer to that question. 

Yeah...unfortunately, some aren’t ready for that.