This Draft Sucked For 1QB Fantasy Football - 2023? Fahrt Noise - NEW! Rank the Top Twelve Post-Draft In Here! Getcha Feels On And Your Cries Out! (1 Viewer)

[Drunken Cowboy]

So I was just offered Bijan (1.01) and 3.07

for 1.03, 1.05 and 2.05. The 2.05 doesn’t really feel much more valuable than 3.07

my league is 1 QB

Run, don't walk, to the accept button

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

 

[Blick]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

 

[Blick]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

1st - 2
2nd - 1
3rd - 4
4th - 1
5th and beyond - who cares.

Either the backs in this class were over rated or the NFL has devalued the position.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

1st - 2
2nd - 1
3rd - 4
4th - 1
5th and beyond - who cares.

Either the backs in this class were over rated or the NFL has devalued the position.

I won’t beat this to death but your stats and your conclusion seem to be at odds with one another - 7 RBs in the top 3 rounds is hardly “punting”.

 

[Blick]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

1st - 2
2nd - 1
3rd - 4
4th - 1
5th and beyond - who cares.

Either the backs in this class were over rated or the NFL has devalued the position.

I won’t beat this to death but your stats and your conclusion seem to be at odds with one another - 7 RBs in the top 3 rounds is hardly “punting”.

Maybe punting was not the right term. I still think marginal WRs will be pushed up allowing good RBs to be selected later.

 

[eighsse2]

2017 historically great RB class
Rounds 1-3: 8 RB's
Rounds 4+: 19 RB's

2023
Rounds 1-3: 7 RB's
Rounds 4+: 11 RB's

So, almost as many in the early rounds as there were in 2017. Not that I expect this group to be comparable. But we have 2 that are practically expected to be elite, and 5 or 6 more with a decent shot (situations might hold some of them back ... "bet on talent, not situation" sometimes works). Then several more with outside shots. As someone with 8 top-20 dynasty picks (and I expect at least 4 of those to be RB's) I'm not thrilled with the draft. But I'm not too bummed out about it.

 

[zamboni]

2017 historically great RB class
Rounds 1-3: 8 RB's
Rounds 4+: 19 RB's

2023
Rounds 1-3: 7 RB's
Rounds 4+: 11 RB's

So, almost as many in the early rounds as there were in 2017. Not that I expect this group to be comparable. But we have 2 that are practically expected to be elite, and 5 or 6 more with a decent shot (situations might hold some of them back ... "bet on talent, not situation" sometimes works). Then several more with outside shots. As someone with 8 top-20 dynasty picks (and I expect at least 4 of those to be RB's) I'm not thrilled with the draft. But I'm not too bummed out about it.

Fair points. One big difference between now and even six years ago is that RBBC has become increasingly commonplace. Which means that outside of Bijan and *maybe* Gibbs, we likely have to temper our expectations for the group at large.

 

[BroncosFan07]

I’m not proclaiming the WR class will be better than last year’s class because last years class has some absolute studs.

That being said, situation should close the gap on talent. Last year 6 WRs drafted in the 1st round…Jets, Saints, Falcons, Titans, Lions, Commanders. This year 4 in the first round…..Seahawks, Chargers, Vikings, Ravens. Your 1dt rounders went to bad teams or bad QBs last year. This year they went to good teams with some really good QBs. I think the person throwing the ball is going to make up the difference.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Also even with the “bad” spots for the RBs this year, you still have an advantage over last year by quite. A bit IMO

Bijon>Hall
Gibbs>Walker - I loaded up on Walker and love him and predict he’ll still be better than Gibbs but you can’t ignore the fact that the Lions took him almost a full round sooner than Walker and the Seahawks just drafted another talented 2nd round pick to compete.

the other 2022 RBs were drafted as late as the 2023 picks and in equally “bad” spots. James cook drafted into a committee by a team that doesn’t feature a RB. Rascaad White drafted to a team with Fournette. Tyrion Davis Price drafted into a huge committee with the 49ers. Brian Robinson drafted to a team that had a good Antonio Gibson. Dameon Pierce drafted into an ideal spot but fell to the 4th round. Isaiah Spiller drafted into Ekeler. Zamir White, Hassan Haskins, Pierre strong? All bad spots behind studs. Allgier was the late round suprise and his value was just crushed!

I think we all expect too much instant production out of mid to late first round picks. Many of these WR and RB situations will look a lot better one year from now as the RB landscape will quickly change. These talented RBs shouldn’t change their draft status just because they were drafted into situations that will take a year or two to materialize. There will also be round 3-5 guys that will quickly rise to value when a key player ahead of them gets injured.

 

[Ilov80s]

I was probably too late to be helpful but I've been saying this. By my count, we have 5 good non QB/TE picks. Basically, round 2 starts at 1.06 in single QB.

 

[zed2283]

I said it in some other thread pre-draft. Every year the teams that need RBs don't draft them and the teams that don't need RBs do.

 

[Dez]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

 

[Ilov80s]

Also even with the “bad” spots for the RBs this year, you still have an advantage over last year by quite. A bit IMO

Bijon>Hall

Draft capital and hindsight knee injury make this true but as players, I think they are equal.

Gibbs>Walker

By a mile

the other 2022 RBs were drafted as late as the 2023 picks and in equally “bad” spots. James cook drafted into a committee by a team that doesn’t feature a RB. Rascaad White drafted to a team with Fournette. Tyrion Davis Price drafted into a huge committee with the 49ers. Brian Robinson drafted to a team that had a good Antonio Gibson. Dameon Pierce drafted into an ideal spot but fell to the 4th round. Isaiah Spiller drafted into Ekeler. Zamir White, Hassan Haskins, Pierre strong? All bad spots behind studs. Allgier was the late round suprise and his value was just crushed!

I think we all expect too much instant production out of mid to late first round picks. Many of these WR and RB situations will look a lot better one year from now as the RB landscape will quickly change. These talented RBs shouldn’t change their draft status just because they were drafted into situations that will take a year or two to materialize. There will also be round 3-5 guys that will quickly rise to value when a key player ahead of them gets injured.

I can't get behind the idea that Cook landing on the Bills was a bad spot. Cook was mid prospect and all his value is derived from the offensive juggernaut he landed on. The other RBs are all blah and I would Pacheco over them all without a 2nd thought.

 

[Ilov80s]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

That is funny because I wouldn't trade 1.01-1.03 for 1.09 and 1.10. I wouldn't even give it a moment of thought.

 

[Ilov80s]

Is this the thread where we rank 1.04 - 1.07 (PPR, RB = 0.5, TE-Prem; Start 1 QB) ?

Sure.

I'll start

1.04 Quentin Johnston
1.05 Rashee Rice
1.06 Jonathan Mingo
1.07 Dalton Kincaid

I am not putting mighty midgets playing for Baltimore or MN anywhere near this list.

I just threw up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not Bigsby unless the ETN owner does it and I wouldn't.

Agreed and agreed.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

That is funny because I wouldn't trade 1.01-1.03 for 1.09 and 1.10. I wouldn't even give it a moment of thought.

It’s the classic trade calc “4 quarters for a dollar” fallacy. In the real world, 4 quarters are worth a dollar. In FF, 4 quarters (players/picks) are not worth a dollar (players/picks).

Every time trade calc discussions come up someone brings up the “stacking” issue. How you can just keep adding dribs and drabs to a trade until it’s balanced.

It simply doesn’t work, and most folks understand this inherently.

Within reason, one might add a drib or a drab to balance a deal, sure. But that’s like “Pick 1.02 for pick 1.03 & 1.09” or something.

Not sure why folks get so hung up about this one - I rarely see offers that match the concern. Most dynasty managers understand that 1x $1 player/pick is worth significantly more than 4x $0.25 players/picks or 2x $.50 players/picks

 

[menobrown]

Bijon>Hall

The gap between Bijan and the next player at the RB position, which I view as Hall, is a larger gap than any other position.

 

[eighsse2]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

That is funny because I wouldn't trade 1.01-1.03 for 1.09 and 1.10. I wouldn't even give it a moment of thought.

It’s the classic trade calc “4 quarters for a dollar” fallacy. In the real world, 4 quarters are worth a dollar. In FF, 4 quarters (players/picks) are not worth a dollar (players/picks).

Every time trade calc discussions come up someone brings up the “stacking” issue. How you can just keep adding dribs and drabs to a trade until it’s balanced.

It simply doesn’t work, and most folks understand this inherently.

Within reason, one might add a drib or a drab to balance a deal, sure. But that’s like “Pick 1.02 for pick 1.03 & 1.09” or something.

Not sure why folks get so hung up about this one - I rarely see offers that match the concern. Most dynasty managers understand that 1x $1 player/pick is worth significantly more than 4x $0.25 players/picks or 2x $.50 players/picks

What I don't get is ... You'd think they could at least calibrate the actual numerical values so that 2-for-1's are accurate. Then you'd only have to make adjustments on 3-for-1's, etc. What I mean is. If two 50 cent pieces are not fair value for a dollar piece ... Then they aren't 50 cent pieces. Where does that 50 cent valuation come from if two of them are not worth a dollar.
While it's impossible to just give each player numerical values that can be summed together (some complicated formula, maybe, but not just a sum) to get their combined value, it  would be possible to make it work pretty well for 2-for-1's, if they just set the numbers right. But the numbers are always far too close together, they values need to go down more dramatically as you go down the rankings.

 

[-OZ-]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

1st - 2
2nd - 1
3rd - 4
4th - 1
5th and beyond - who cares.

Either the backs in this class were over rated or the NFL has devalued the position.

I’m not sure who was overrating the backs after Gibbs. They never looked all that great to many.
The NFL hasn’t valued backs in a while.

 

[-OZ-]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

That is funny because I wouldn't trade 1.01-1.03 for 1.09 and 1.10. I wouldn't even give it a moment of thought.

It’s the classic trade calc “4 quarters for a dollar” fallacy. In the real world, 4 quarters are worth a dollar. In FF, 4 quarters (players/picks) are not worth a dollar (players/picks).

Every time trade calc discussions come up someone brings up the “stacking” issue. How you can just keep adding dribs and drabs to a trade until it’s balanced.

It simply doesn’t work, and most folks understand this inherently.

Within reason, one might add a drib or a drab to balance a deal, sure. But that’s like “Pick 1.02 for pick 1.03 & 1.09” or something.

Not sure why folks get so hung up about this one - I rarely see offers that match the concern. Most dynasty managers understand that 1x $1 player/pick is worth significantly more than 4x $0.25 players/picks or 2x $.50 players/picks

What I don't get is ... You'd think they could at least calibrate the actual numerical values so that 2-for-1's are accurate. Then you'd only have to make adjustments on 3-for-1's, etc. What I mean is. If two 50 cent pieces are not fair value for a dollar piece ... Then they aren't 50 cent pieces. Where does that 50 cent valuation come from if two of them are not worth a dollar.
While it's impossible to just give each player numerical values that can be summed together (some complicated formula, maybe, but not just a sum) to get their combined value, it  would be possible to make it work pretty well for 2-for-1's, if they just set the numbers right. But the numbers are always far too close together, they values need to go down more dramatically as you go down the rankings.

But that only really works when you factor the other player / roster space you drop with the additional player. Plus the lost value in your starting lineup. It still isn’t perfect but it’s better.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

While it's impossible to just give each player numerical values that can be summed together (some complicated formula, maybe, but not just a sum) to get their combined value, it  would be possible to make it work pretty well for 2-for-1's, if they just set the numbers right. But the numbers are always far too close together, they values need to go down more dramatically as you go down the rankings.

The challenge is it’s never so clean or even.

In a 2 for 1 deal, it usually only gets done if the 2 are like, $.73 and $.51 players.

So you’re paying or receiving $1.24 for the $1 player.

And of course valuation is in the eye of the beholder. Managers value players in part by what they paid for them, so even if they’re getting an offer of $1.24 for their $1, if they invested $1.50 in that player it isn’t getting done.

That’s contextual and specific to every trade, so it’s impossible for a calc to factor that in.

Calcs are guidelines to valuation just like ranking sheets. They’re imperfect tools that can be helpful, but they’re not infallible. Understanding their shortcomings makes them a better tool, IMO.

 

[eighsse2]

In a 2 for 1 deal, it usually only gets done if the 2 are like, $.73 and $.51 players..

If that's what it generally takes to get the deal done, then they're not $.73 and $.51 players. They're $.59 and $.41 players. By my thinking anyway. I mean, where does $.73 and $.51 valuation come from? Seems arbitrary if not based on trade value.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In a 2 for 1 deal, it usually only gets done if the 2 are like, $.73 and $.51 players..

If that's what it generally takes to get the deal done, then they're not $.73 and $.51 players. They're $.59 and $.41 players. By my thinking anyway. I mean, where does $.73 and $.51 valuation come from? Seems arbitrary if not based on trade value.

I was told there would be no math.

 

[eighsse2]

In a 2 for 1 deal, it usually only gets done if the 2 are like, $.73 and $.51 players..

If that's what it generally takes to get the deal done, then they're not $.73 and $.51 players. They're $.59 and $.41 players. By my thinking anyway. I mean, where does $.73 and $.51 valuation come from? Seems arbitrary if not based on trade value.

I was told there would be no math.

I mean even what I'm saying I don't feel so good about, because it doesn't translate properly to trades with other quantities of players on one side. Even if I say they are 59 and 41 cent players, if I have two 59 cent guys and two 41 cent guys, even though I can get a $1 guy with a pair of them, there's likely no way I can get a $2 guy for all four of them. I don't know any good answer.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I mean even what I'm saying I don't feel so good about, because it doesn't translate properly to trades with other quantities of players on one side. Even if I say they are 59 and 41 cent players, if I have two 59 cent guys and two 41 cent guys, even though I can get a $1 guy with a pair of them, there's likely no way I can get a $2 guy for all four of them. I don't know any good answer.

I get what you’re saying. My point was that in most successful 2 for 1 deals I’ve made, I’m paying the equivalent of $1.24 for $1, with one piece valuable enough that it’s not *that much* of a drop-off from what the other team is getting, with the other piece being valuable enough to not simply be filler (one of those $.25 pieces mentioned earlier)

The end result, as I believe you were saying, would mean those players were literally worth $1 because you’re judging by the results of the completed trade.

That’s just not how I look at the hypothetical - if someone is paying $1.24 for $1, that doesn’t devalue those 2 guys who added up to $1.24

The team getting them could still flip them for $.73 & .51 - their value remains intact.

Similarly if I’m accepting $1.24 for my $1 player, there’s no way I’m accepting a deal that gives me a $.49 player and a $.51 player - that’s where tier evaluation & dynasty ranking charts come into the equation. If I’m giving up a tier 2 player, imma want a tier 3 guy/pick back, with a tier 4-5 guy/pick to make up the difference.

The point is it’s an inexact science. Where math is very clean, trades are super messy. That’s why trade calcs aren’t the end all/be all. Even calcs that factor in roster space fail in that regard.

 

[eighsse2]

The point is it’s an inexact science. Where math is very clean, trades are super messy. That’s why trade calcs aren’t the end all/be all. Even calcs that factor in roster space fail in that regard.

Definitely this, in the end. It's like asking a robot for romantic relationship advice.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Definitely this, in the end. It's like asking a robot for romantic relationship advice.

Perfect analogy.

Unless you’re getting romantic with the robot. No judgement: this is a safe space.

 

[barackdhouse]

Not going to defend any of this except Bijan who doesn't require defending. This is my first rough list after coffee and not a ton of thought. And there are a few guys I've probably missed. Based on some of the early comments, I get the impression that people are going to be reaching for WRs that even they don't like and that these RBs will be there in the 2nd. Not sure that makes me feel any better but I really hate this draft. Nevertheless:

BIJAN

GIBBS

QUENTIN

JSN

CHARBONNET

KENDRE

KINCAID

FLOWERS

MAYER

ROSCHON

TANK

ACHANE

TILLMAN

ISRAEL

RICHARDSON

CHASE

YOUNG

LAPORTA

MIMS

RICE

MUSGRAVE

REED

HYATT

ADDISON

DOWNS

SCOTT

HULL

 

[barackdhouse]

If I do it by tiers:

Bijan
**
Gibbs
**
**
**
a heaping pile of crap

 

[barackdhouse]

^I'm just kidding of course, but here goes by tiers:

Bijan
*
Gibbs
*
Quentin/JSN
*
Charbs/Kinkaid/Kendre
*
Flowers/Mayer
*
Roschon/Tillman/Abanikanda

That doesn't even match my list above but whatever

 

[IHEARTFF]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

Put it in their trade calc and no it does not recommend that. Not that it’s great, but it’s dynamic and adds value to lesser the side of unbalanced trades.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If I do it by tiers:

Bijan
**
Gibbs
**
**
**
a heaping pile of crap

Why so low on Addison?

 

[barackdhouse]

If I do it by tiers:

Bijan
**
Gibbs
**
**
**
a heaping pile of crap

Why so low on Addison?

well if this is a joke that Addison is the pile being referenced, then at least I put him 3rd? lol

 

[-OZ-]

In a 2 for 1 deal, it usually only gets done if the 2 are like, $.73 and $.51 players..

If that's what it generally takes to get the deal done, then they're not $.73 and $.51 players. They're $.59 and $.41 players. By my thinking anyway. I mean, where does $.73 and $.51 valuation come from? Seems arbitrary if not based on trade value.

Clearly an art and not science, but I figure the open roster spot / dropped player is probably worth about 24¢ in this example.

 

[barackdhouse]

If I do it by tiers:

Bijan
**
Gibbs
**
**
**
a heaping pile of crap

Why so low on Addison?

no you're right that's way too low - I kept sorting and sorting and he kept falling I guess

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

What a weird intersection of a deep RB class and the NFL completely punting the position.

Huh? Two went in the top 12?

Are you seriously going to argue that the NFL, as a whole, values RBs? Sheesh

Are you pretending two didn’t go top 12? How is that punting the position?

1st - 2
2nd - 1
3rd - 4
4th - 1
5th and beyond - who cares.

Either the backs in this class were over rated or the NFL has devalued the position.

I won’t beat this to death but your stats and your conclusion seem to be at odds with one another - 7 RBs in the top 3 rounds is hardly “punting”.

Maybe punting was not the right term. I still think marginal WRs will be pushed up allowing good RBs to be selected later.

One could maybe even argue the opposite and that NFL teams put emphasis on the position, which is why some teams opted to draft multiple RBs while already rostering a bona-fide bellcow RB?

I wouldn't say teams steered away from the position. You can't argue 2 RBs were taken top 12 and 7 in-totality in 3 rounds. The outlier is the teams without RBs not taking backs and assuming they would get a guy later, when they would be taken just picks prior by a team with an RB. I really doubt this will push subpar WRs up in Dynasty Rookie drafts. I do think you'll see more QBs taken early but I'd say it'll be typical for 6 to 7 RBs get drafted in the top 15 of picks, All 3 QBs will be gone by then too. 2 TEs and 4 to 5 WRs. That's pretty typical year minus the QB/TE mix.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

^I'm just kidding of course, but here goes by tiers:

Bijan
*
Gibbs
*
Quentin/JSN
*
Charbs/Kinkaid/Kendre
*
Flowers/Mayer
*
Roschon/Tillman/Abanikanda

That doesn't even match my list above but whatever

I do have Achane higher due to McDaniels & his relatively fragile competition, but otherwise it’s a fair 1st shot.

 

[barackdhouse]

^I'm just kidding of course, but here goes by tiers:

Bijan
*
Gibbs
*
Quentin/JSN
*
Charbs/Kinkaid/Kendre
*
Flowers/Mayer
*
Roschon/Tillman/Abanikanda

That doesn't even match my list above but whatever

I do have Achane higher due to McDaniels & his relatively fragile competition, but otherwise it’s a fair 1st shot.

Yeah I imagine Achane gets into the 1st for me as well

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If I do it by tiers:

Bijan
**
Gibbs
**
**
**
a heaping pile of crap

Why so low on Addison?

no you're right that's way too low - I kept sorting and sorting and he kept falling I guess

Ok, yeah I was referring to your first list. That seemed way low.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

That is funny because I wouldn't trade 1.01-1.03 for 1.09 and 1.10. I wouldn't even give it a moment of thought.

It’s the classic trade calc “4 quarters for a dollar” fallacy. In the real world, 4 quarters are worth a dollar. In FF, 4 quarters (players/picks) are not worth a dollar (players/picks).

Every time trade calc discussions come up someone brings up the “stacking” issue. How you can just keep adding dribs and drabs to a trade until it’s balanced.

It simply doesn’t work, and most folks understand this inherently.

Within reason, one might add a drib or a drab to balance a deal, sure. But that’s like “Pick 1.02 for pick 1.03 & 1.09” or something.

Not sure why folks get so hung up about this one - I rarely see offers that match the concern. Most dynasty managers understand that 1x $1 player/pick is worth significantly more than 4x $0.25 players/picks or 2x $.50 players/picks

What I don't get is ... You'd think they could at least calibrate the actual numerical values so that 2-for-1's are accurate. Then you'd only have to make adjustments on 3-for-1's, etc. What I mean is. If two 50 cent pieces are not fair value for a dollar piece ... Then they aren't 50 cent pieces. Where does that 50 cent valuation come from if two of them are not worth a dollar.
While it's impossible to just give each player numerical values that can be summed together (some complicated formula, maybe, but not just a sum) to get their combined value, it  would be possible to make it work pretty well for 2-for-1's, if they just set the numbers right. But the numbers are always far too close together, they values need to go down more dramatically as you go down the rankings.

Generally, KTC does a great job of player valuation and offers a bonus to the team not acquiring a stud.

For the most part, it won't let you keep adding scrubs to a Justin Jefferson trade but the pick valuation has always been a bit off.

Draft picks are hard to associate real value to without understanding roster makeup and draft forecasting.

 

[Mister CIA]

I'm sitting on 1.05 in start-1 qb and I love AR. Pretty sure I won't be drafting him, but I'll think about it..

It would be very tempting

But buck up little campers! Things can and likely will change between now and draft day (unless your league drafts insanely starts on Monday, like one of my leagues does) - Mixon could be released. Players get hurt. Things change.

It may well be that there’s a more clearly defined top 12 by the time rookie draft SZN is upon us.


That’s my glass half full rah rah speech. How’d I do?

My draft starts tomorrow morning.

1 qb? Could you share how it goes for you?

Sure will.

More info here: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/post-nfl-draft-dynasty-or-devy-drafts.808315/#post-24494087

AR has gone 1.04 and 1.06 in start-1 qb dynasty (first league in OP has not been updated to reflect staus)

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm sitting on 1.05 in start-1 qb and I love AR. Pretty sure I won't be drafting him, but I'll think about it..

It would be very tempting

But buck up little campers! Things can and likely will change between now and draft day (unless your league drafts insanely starts on Monday, like one of my leagues does) - Mixon could be released. Players get hurt. Things change.

It may well be that there’s a more clearly defined top 12 by the time rookie draft SZN is upon us.


That’s my glass half full rah rah speech. How’d I do?

My draft starts tomorrow morning.

1 qb? Could you share how it goes for you?

Sure will.

More info here: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/post-nfl-draft-dynasty-or-devy-drafts.808315/#post-24494087

AR has gone 1.04 and 1.06 in start-1 qb dynasty (first league in OP has not been updated to reflect staus)

I hope they have patience

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm sitting on 1.05 in start-1 qb and I love AR. Pretty sure I won't be drafting him, but I'll think about it..

It would be very tempting

But buck up little campers! Things can and likely will change between now and draft day (unless your league drafts insanely starts on Monday, like one of my leagues does) - Mixon could be released. Players get hurt. Things change.

It may well be that there’s a more clearly defined top 12 by the time rookie draft SZN is upon us.


That’s my glass half full rah rah speech. How’d I do?

My draft starts tomorrow morning.

1 qb? Could you share how it goes for you?

Sure will.

More info here: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/post-nfl-draft-dynasty-or-devy-drafts.808315/#post-24494087

AR has gone 1.04 and 1.06 in start-1 qb dynasty (first league in OP has not been updated to reflect staus)

Not at all surprising.

 

[metoo]

Y'all should punish him and make him select every pick.

I have that guy in my league, who dealt for 5 1st round picks.

bummer

 

[humpback]

Also even with the “bad” spots for the RBs this year, you still have an advantage over last year by quite. A bit IMO

Bijon>Hall
Gibbs>Walker - I loaded up on Walker and love him and predict he’ll still be better than Gibbs but you can’t ignore the fact that the Lions took him almost a full round sooner than Walker and the Seahawks just drafted another talented 2nd round pick to compete.

the other 2022 RBs were drafted as late as the 2023 picks and in equally “bad” spots. James cook drafted into a committee by a team that doesn’t feature a RB. Rascaad White drafted to a team with Fournette. Tyrion Davis Price drafted into a huge committee with the 49ers. Brian Robinson drafted to a team that had a good Antonio Gibson. Dameon Pierce drafted into an ideal spot but fell to the 4th round. Isaiah Spiller drafted into Ekeler. Zamir White, Hassan Haskins, Pierre strong? All bad spots behind studs. Allgier was the late round suprise and his value was just crushed!

I think we all expect too much instant production out of mid to late first round picks. Many of these WR and RB situations will look a lot better one year from now as the RB landscape will quickly change. These talented RBs shouldn’t change their draft status just because they were drafted into situations that will take a year or two to materialize. There will also be round 3-5 guys that will quickly rise to value when a key player ahead of them gets injured.

I agree about the WRs. The problem with RBs is, if they take a year or 2 to materialize, that's a pretty good chunk of their FF usefulness.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?

Did you even try this? Because it’s not true. I just tried it and it’s still off by 3000pts. FYI.

Not saying the KCT is the best or anything, but at least actually run it through before you complaining?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This draft must really suck as by now 40 different people would have posted their rookie rankings and I haven’t seen anyone even try.